the welsh + Mererid Hopwood Owain Glyndwˆr and the Welsh dream Adam Price Devolution in reverse Peter Hain Case for the Severn Barrage Jon Owen Jones Costs of Wales’ newest quango Kevin Brennan Rise of the Twitter generation Stephanie Matthews Statins scandal Reinvention of David Reynolds Schools trapped in time warp Helen Birtwhistle Welsh canals Health and social care gap Alison Taylor Still lost in care Trevor Fishlock Magic of the movies Peter Stead Swans fly high www.iwa.org.uk | Winter 2012 | No. 48 | £8.99 The Institute of Welsh Affairs gratefully acknowledges funding support from the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, the Esmée Fairbairn Foundation and the Waterloo Foundation. 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Silk has relied heavily on Editor: John Osmond having had three fundamental examinations the Holtham Commission’s work, but Silk’s Associate Editors: of the devolution settlement: the Richard more political composition has grafted on a Geraint Talfan Davies Rhys David Commission that reviewed the capacity and degree of pre-emptive political compromise powers of the National Assembly in 2004, that, in a rational world, should increase Literary Editor: Peter Finch the Holtham Commission that looked into the chances of implementation. There ways of funding the Assembly and the Welsh is nothing in it that should frighten the Administration: Helen Sims-Coomber Government in 2009, and now the Silk horses. On income tax the sharing of power Commission, whose Phase 1 report has dealt between Cardiff and Westminster (and the Design: [email protected] with the devolution of powers over taxation devolution of other minor taxes) would (see page 16). The first two provided bodies of still see the Welsh Government covering To advertise, tel: 029 2066 0820 evidence that have stood the test of time and only 25 per cent of its expenditure, at best, The publisher acknowledges the from this source. There is an argument financial support of the Welsh sets of recommendations firmly based on that Books Council. evidence. The Silk Commission’s first report, that it should cover at least a third of its Institute of Welsh Affairs published in November, is in the same mould. expenditure in this way for the improvement 4 Cathedral Road Taken together, we would have a larger, in accountability to bite. Cardiff CF11 9LJ fairly elected, fit-for-purpose Assembly pace( In addition, the recommendations for Tel: 029 2066 0820 Richard), a Welsh Government fairly funded improved economic and taxation statistics for Email: [email protected] www.iwa.org.uk (pace Holtham) and (pace Silk) a Welsh Wales and for the creation of a robust Treasury Government responsible for a set of taxation function within Welsh Government would also The IWA is a non-aligned independent think-tank and research institute. and borrowing tools that would move it, and be big gains in themselves. Wales need these Members (annual subscription £40) Welsh politics as a whole, from an adolescent tools both to make its case and to introduce receive agenda three times a year, can purchase reports at a 25 per cent to an adult phase of their existence. more rigour into its own government. reduction, and receive discounts when The problem has been summoning the Unfortunately, the chances of a foot- attending IWA events. will for implementation amidst common dragging response are high. Labour is nervous Branches calculations of party advantage and not a few of giving the Conservative Party in Wales North Wales Secretariat fissures. The move to law-making powers, a taxation story with which to beguile the c/o Huw Lewis 6 Maes yr Haul, Mold, post the Richard Commission, was initially Welsh public. The First Minister has made his Flintshire CH7 1NS crab-like, creating Legislative Competence response conditional on Barnett reform – or Tel: 01352 758311 Orders by which the National Assembly ‘fair funding’, as it is now referred to – safe Gwent Secretariat sought endless permissions to legislate from in the knowledge that that is a long way c/o Chris O’Malley University of Wales, Newport, Westminster. Thankfully, the 2011 referendum from being on Mr Osborne’s ‘to do’ list. The Caerleon Campus consigned these to a glass case in the Conservative Party itself will be torn between PO Box 179, Newport NP18 3YG constitutional museum. However, Richard’s an instinctive belief that there is a relationship Tel: 01633 432005 other recommendations to increase the size of between taxation powers and proper West Wales Secretariat c/o Margaret Davies the Assembly, widen its powers and change its accountability and, on the other hand, its own Principal’s Office, method of election remain on the table. ‘slippery-slopers’ who believe that devolution Trinity University College, Similarly with the Holtham Commission is getting out of hand. Even the Liberal Carmarthen SA31 3EP report, whose methodologies and conclusions Democrats and Plaid Cymru, who ought to Tel: 01267 237971 be fully supportive of these changes, may fear Swansea Bay Secretariat were not only robust enough to withstand UK c/o Delith Thorpe Treasury scrutiny, but also sensible enough the practicalities of a referendum on taxation 38 Southlands Drive, to merit amending the proposals for taxation powers not to mention how this will play in an Swansea SA3 5RA powers for Scotland first advanced by its Assembly election in 2016. Tel: 01792 404315 The job of civil society in Wales in the Cardiff and Valleys Secretariat own Calman Commission. Those Holtham c/o Emma Bremman amendments are now embodied in the coming years must be to ensure that any 4 Cathedral Road, Scotland Act 2012. Yet a rational, needs-based incipient timidity on the part of our politicians, Cardiff CF11 9LJ reform of the Barnett formula, that was central from whatever party, is exposed and Tel: 029 2066 0820 challenged. It will not be long before the parties IWA Women to Holtham, has run into a combination of post- c/o Kirsty Davies recession austerity that has intensified normal start thinking of their manifestoes for the 2015 [email protected] Treasury instincts, and a Scottish roadblock to General Election. Those manifestoes will have Tel: 07900 692898 change that many believe will survive even to take account of the result of the Scottish Wales in London referendum on independence, whatever that c/o Robert John after the 2014 referendum on independence. First Base, 22 Ganton Street, Holtham and the Silk Commission’s may be. They must not be silent on this agenda London W1F 7BY report on taxation and borrowing powers for Wales. We have too much to lose. Tel: 020 7851 5521 the welsh agenda winter 2012—issue 48 | 1 Contents 26. A new economic 42. Tesco’s law catalyst for the Valleys Sarah Wyburn asks whether Agenda 48 1 Sebastian Barrett believes