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The Economic Effects of Fracture in the United States

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The Economic Effects of Fracture in the United States A 11 10 5 5=^711 MERCE National Bureau of Stanaards SPECIAL PUBLICATION 647-2 The Economic Effects of Fracture in the United States NBS PUBLICATIONS NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS The National Bureau of Standards' was established by an act of Congress on March 3, 1901. The Bureau's overall goal is to strengthen and advance the Nation's science and technology and facilitate their effective application for public benefit. To this end, the Bureau conducts research and provides: (1) a basis for the Nation's physical measurement system, (2) scientific and technological services for industry and government, (3) a technical basis for equity in trade, and (4) technical services to promote public safety. The Bureau's technical work is per- formed by the National Measurement Laboratory, the National Engineering Laboratory, and the Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology. THE NATIONAL MEASUREMENT LABORATORY provides the national system of physical and chemical and materials measurement; coordinates the system with measurement systems of other nations and furnishes essential services leading to accurate and uniform physical and chemical measurement throughout the Nation's scientific community, industry, and commerce; conducts materials research leading to improved methods of measurement, standards, and data on the properties of materials needed by industry, commerce, educational institutions, and Government; provides advisory and research services to other Government agencies; develops, produces, and distributes Standard Reference Materials; and provides calibration services. The Laboratory consists of the following centers: Absolute Physical Quantities 2 — Radiation Research — Chemical Physics — Analytical Chemistry — Materials Science THE NATIONAL ENGINEERING LABORATORY provides technology and technical ser- vices to the public and private sectors to address national needs and to solve national problems; conducts research in engineering and applied science in support of these efforts; builds and maintains competence in the necessary disciplines required to carry out this research and technical service; develops engineering data and measurement capabilities; provides engineering measurement traceability services; develops test methods and proposes engineering standards and code changes; develops and proposes new engineering practices; and develops and improves mechanisms to transfer results of its research to the ultimate user. The Laboratory consists of the following centers: Applied Mathematics — Electronics and Electrical Engineering 2 — Manufacturing Engineering — Building Technology — Fire Research — Chemical Engineering 2 THE INSTITUTE FOR COMPUTER SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY conducts research and provides scientific and technical services to aid Federal agencies in the selection, acquisition, application, and use of computer technology to improve effectiveness and economy in Government operations in accordance with Public Law 89-306 (40 U.S.C. 759), relevant Executive Orders, and other directives; carries out this mission by managing the Federal Information Processing Standards Program, developing Federal ADP standards guidelines, and managing Federal participation in ADP voluntary standardization activities; provides scientific and technological advisory services and assistance to Federal agencies; and provides the technical foundation for computer-related policies of the Federal Government. The Institute consists of the following centers: Programming Science and Technology — Computer Systems Engineering. 'Headquarters and Laboratories at Gaithersburg, MD, unless otherwise noted; mailing address Washington, DC 20234. 2 Some divisions within the center are located at Boulder, CO 80303. NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS LIBRARY The Economic Effects of Fracture in the United States Part 2 — A Report to NBS by Battelle Columbus Laboratories J.J. Duga, W.H. Fisher, R.W. Buxbaum, A.R. Rosenfield, A.R. Buhr, E.J. Honton, DATE DUE and S.C. McMillan Battelle Columbus Laboratories 505 King Avenue Columbus, OH 43201 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS, Ernest Ambler, Director Issued March 1 983 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 83-600705 National Bureau of Standards Special Publication 647-2 Natl. Bur. Stand. (U.S.), Spec. Publ. 647-2, 352 pages (Mar. 1983) CODEN: XNBSAV U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON: 1983 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402 Price $11.00 (Add 25 percent for other than U.S. mailing) o FOREWORD This study on the Economic Effects of Fracture in the United States is the second program of this general type undertaken by the Battel le Columbus Division on behalf of the National Bureau of Standards. As in the earlier study on corrosion, the analysis was based on an Input/Output model of the U.S. economy, and required detailed study and alteration of the factors which describe all interindustry transactions. No effort of this complexity could be performed in a vacuum. From the initial definitions of scope and approach to the intensive examination of the 150-sector model, many researchers have contributed insights, information, and inspiration. No list of associates could do full justice to their total contributions. Several, however, deserve special mention. Among the principal Battel le researchers, Frank Hoi den and Allen Hopper supplied both general and specific insights which were invaluable in all phases of the program. Patrick Stephan, Donald Hill, and Deborah Carter--our three principal data-collectors --brought to the project the technical expertise necessary to provide base- line data on which an advanced analytical tool could be developed. Numerous other Battel le staff were most helpful in supplying data specific to a broad number of industries and their practices. Professor Andrew Brody, a Battel le Distinguished Visiting Scholar and authority on I/O modeling, added an essential understanding to the critical issues of reliability and sensitivity. The authors also appreciate the support and consideration given at all levels of Battelle management. Their continued interest, understanding, guidance and assistance have been most welcome throughout the program. A very special note of thanks is due to Harry Barr, whose broad knowledge of almost every industrial sector and his sensitivity to the demands of the I/O approach represent a unique talent. An Advisory Board, drawn from a wide spectrum of interests, provided commentary and guidance which has served to place this work in a more realistic context, assuring that the approach and results served a broad audience. These Advisory Board members included: Dr„ Anne P. Carter Prof. George Irwin Brandeis University University of Maryland (Ret.) Mr, Lawrence Casel lini Mr. Robert Philleo Travelers Insurance Companies U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Mr. Joseph C i ri 1 1 Mr. David Poole State of Rhode Island Electric Power Research Institute i i i Dr. Wil li am J. Harris Dr. Nathan Promisel Association of American National Materials Advisory Board Rail roads (Ret.) Mr. Abraham Hurlich Mr. Foster Wilson General Dynamics Corp. (Ret.) Owens Corning Fiberglas Corp. At all stages of the program, it has been apparent that this has been a cooperative effort with the National Bureau of Standards. The project has clearly been carried out with , rather than merely for, NBS. Drs. Richard Reed, John McKinley, Elio Passaglia, John Smith, Bruce Christ, and John Wachtman have each made their impacts on the program; they have guided, they have shared their perspectives and concerns, and they have shed consid- erable light on the utility of the work. And finally, Dr. Edward Berman, consultant to NBS, has--through his challenges, interest, and enthusiasm-- helped make this study more germane to the benefits of all parties. i v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page FOREWORD 111 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xvi I. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW 1 Historical Progress in Fracture Prevention 2 Improvements in Materials 2 Improvements in Design 3 Improvements in Testing/Inspection 3 Developments in Fracture Mechanics 3 The Pervasiveness of Costs 4 Program Objectives 5 Structure of the Report 7 II. THE SCOPE OF THE PROGRAM 9 Comparison with the "Cost of Corrosion" 9 The Concept of Worlds 11 Physical Significance of the Worlds 15 Special Attention to Factors Beyond Scope 20 III. GENERAL APPROACH 22 What is Input/Output? 22 The Concept of Sectors 25 Sectoral Format 25 Materials 26 Fabrication Processes 26 End Uses 26 Special Services 28 The Data Collection Approach 29 Supplemental Models 29 Events Character Model 30 Injury Cost Model 32 Property Damage Model 32 Environmental Degradation Model 32 Use of Supplemental Models 33 v TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page IV. SPECIFIC INPUT/OUTPUT METHOD . 35 The Nature of Simulation Adjustments 35 The Ex Ante Approach to Corrosion 36 The Planned Approach to Fracture 36 Column-Oriented Data Gathering. 37 The Emergence of Row Rules 37 The Reason for Row Rules 38 The Nature of the Row Rules 40 The Process of Matrix Adjustments 44 Changes in the A Matrix 44 Changes in the B Matrix 45 Changes in the U and R Matrices 45 Changes in Final Demand 46 Technological Changes in the Column Specific Sectors 48 V. I/O MODEL OUTPUT 61 The Overal 1 Procedure 61 Model Outputs: World I. 61 Data Bases 62 Calculated Outputs 62 Model Output: World II 65 Data Bases 65 Calculated Outputs 72 Model Output: World III 77 Data Bases 77 Calculated Outputs 79 Model Outputs: the Difference Tables
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