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COUNTRY Food Security Update

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COUNTRY Food Security Update MALI Food Security Outlook Update June 2013 Marketing conditions returning to normal in the north; decreased demand in the south KEY MESSAGES Figure 1 Current food security outcomes for June 2013 Cumulative rainfall totals for the period from May 1st through June 20th were generally normal to above- normal. Crop planting was slightly delayed by localized late June rains, particularly in structurally-deficit southern Kayes and western Koulikoro. Increased trade with normal supply areas in the south and accelerated humanitarian assistance have considerably improved staple food availability in northern markets, though import flows from Algeria are still limited. Exceptions include localized pastoral areas such as Ber (Timbuktu) and Anefif (Kidal), where persistent security problems continue to delay the recovery of market activities. Northern pastoral populations are still facing IPC Phase 3: Crisis levels of food insecurity. Source: FEWS NET Persistent weak demand in southern production markets This map shows relevant current acute food insecurity outcomes for triggered unusual price decreases between May and June, emergency decision-making. It does not necessary reflect chronic food ahead of the onset of the lean season in agropastoral insecurity. zones. The same trend is reported by rice-growing farmers in the Timbuktu region given the absence of Figure 2. Most likely estimated food security outcomes usual buyers and ongoing food assistance. for July through September 2013 The food security outlook for the southern part of the country is average to good and is starting to improve in the north with the various humanitarian programs underway, gradual economic recovery, and seasonal improvement in pastoral conditions. IPC Phase 3: Crisis levels will continue in the north until the anticipated improvement in pastoral conditions and the acceleration of humanitarian assistance in August. MARKET CONDITIONS AND TRENDS The marketing system in northern Mali has adapted to realities on the ground since large-scale military activities were launched in March 2012. The relative isolation of northern areas, pillaging of food supplies, and disruptions to normal supply channels for basic commodities jointly Source: FEWS NET contributed to atypical price increases—particularly the height This map shows relevant acute food insecurity outcomes for emergency of the shortages in March 2012. Market supplies resumed via decision-making. It does not necessary reflect chronic food insecurity. routes through Niger in June of last year, while informal FEWS NET Mali FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government Mali Food Security Outlook Update June 2013 Algerian imports helped improve food supplies for Figure 3: Trends in trade flows compared to normal populations affected by the conflict-related breakdown of economic activity. Seasonal increase in river traffic during this period also helped improve food supply after major roads were closed between the north and south and along the Algerian border in January, with the launch of the new military campaign. In the northern part of the country, livestock markets were disrupted, resulting in reduced demand and prices. This reduced pastoral incomes, particularly in the pastoral areas of Timbuktu and Gao and the Kidal region. Market response since February 2013 The clearing of mines and gradual reopening of major northern roads in February of this year helped bolster trade flows between northern and southern Mali and encouraged the recovery of Source: FEWS NET market activities, particularly in the riverbelt area Figure 4 : Terms of trade for millet/goats on urban markets of Timbuktu and Gao. The increase in road and river traffic in March 2013 and resumption of humanitarian assistance efforts helped drive down cereals prices. The adoption of the preliminary peace agreement by the government and the MNLA in mid-June is helping to restore mobility— particularly in Kidal. Trade between Algeria and Gao, which had been sharply reduced, has rebounded since February and contributed to improved market supplies. Cereal prices began to decrease from their December/January levels beginning in February 2013 with the lifting of restrictions on trade and the acceleration in cereal flows. Livestock prices have increased with the slow but steady rebound in demand, increasing terms of trade for goats/millet in Timbuktu and Gao. Livestock *Prices represent first two weeks of June rather than monthly average marketing activities remain very limited in some Source: SAP, FEWS NET pastoral areas like Djeboock and Tin Aouker (in Gao), and Ber, Bambara, and Maoudé (in Timbuktu), compared with more dynamic markets in secure urban and riverbelt areas. Persistent insecurity due to conflict between armed factions in the Kidal area continues to hinder the recovery of activities in some markets (Halil). Localized reduced livestock sales in some pastoral areas have led some pastoralists to travel to cross-border markets in Niger to sell their livestock and purchase staple food supplies. Reliance on cash and in-kind remittances from relatives outside the area and their focus on food purchases to the exclusion of all other types of spending have helped sustain pastoral households. CURRENT SITUATION With the approaching end of the lean season in pastoral areas and the beginning of the lean season in agropastoral areas in July, food security is marked by good cereal availability at stable prices in the south and by accelerated humanitarian food assistance and the gradual resumption of more typical socioeconomic conditions in the north. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 Mali Food Security Outlook Update June 2013 Seasonal progress Weather forecasts by ACMAD and NOAA predict normal to above-normal rainfall activity in Mali. The timely start of the rains in the south also signals the onset of the new growing season in some areas. Delayed June rains are responsible for the slight delay in the planting of crops in the southern reaches of Kayes, Mopti, and Ségou-- which is not of significant concern this early in the season. Preparations for the start of season in the south are already underway and the implementation of government subsidies for farm inputs should give most farmers across the country good access to inputs. Current activities include planting, weeding, and transporting fertilizer. These activities are a regular source of food and income for poor households all across the country at this time of year. Returning migrant workers currently bolster household purchasing power with their migration income and through their contributions to household on-farm labor supply. Farming activities in the north are just starting, including crop maintenance for off-season rice crops, bund maintenance in irrigated rice-farming schemes, and flood-recession crop planting. Scattered light rainfall in northern areas of the country is helping to spur new pasture growth, crucial to improve livestock body conditions and milk production. Situation in the south Figure 5: Trends in rice prices in urban markets In general, cereal availability on supply markets in southern Mali in the weeks leading up to the lean season in agropastoral areas is average to good. Supply is bolstered, as usual, by ongoing harvests of off-season crops and crop sales by farmers to meet their financial needs for the new growing season. Traders reportedly have larger than usual inventories and are making necessary corrections to bring their supplies in line with weak demand. The main causes are last season’s good harvest, distributions of humanitarian food assistance, and insecurity in the north. Southern markets are currently feeling the effects of *Prices represent first two weeks of June rather than monthly average Source: SAP, FEWS NET reduced demand, with certain markets reporting unusual drops in cereal prices compared to normal seasonal price trends. Humanitarian food and nonfood assistance efforts are helping to improve food security for an estimated 353,455 displaced persons and host households in the south. Part of these food supplies, pulses in particular, are resold to make other necessary purchases. Food security and market conditions in the south remain generally normal, while the regional and cross-border market system is marked by the following anomalies and trends: Cereal trade has rebounded since March of this year with the improvement in security conditions and the return of IDPs. Supplies on these markets are average. Markets in northern Mali are normally supplied by traders in San, Macina, and Niono. Cereal trade has improved as security conditions stabilize and increasing numbers of IDPs return home. Millet prices are unchanged from last month and are comparable to the average in Mopti and slightly below- average in Ségou and San. Exports to Mauritania from Léré and Goundam have been disrupted, while increased exports to Niger is encouraging traders to increase trade flows in that direction without significantly affecting local markets. Staple food prices are falling in spite of the approaching lean season in agropastoral areas: The unexpected stabilization or decline in prices for millet, sorghum, maize, and rice on certain production markets at this time of year means less income for traders than usual, but assures affordable prices for poor households. This is attributed to larger
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