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Research Collection Doctoral Thesis Exploring long-term forest cover changes and their driving forces in Switzerland (1850-2000) Author(s): Loran, Christin Publication Date: 2017 Permanent Link: https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000228368 Rights / License: In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted This page was generated automatically upon download from the ETH Zurich Research Collection. For more information please consult the Terms of use. ETH Library DISS. ETH No. 24460 EXPLORING LONG-TERM FOREST COVER CHANGES AND THEIR DRIVING FORCES IN SWITZERLAND (1850-2000) A dissertation submitted to attain the degree of DOCTOR OF SCIENCES of ETH ZURICH (Dr. sc. ETH Zurich) presented by CHRISTIN LORAN M.Sc. in Forest Sciences and Forest Ecology, University of Göttingen born on 15.06.1985 citizen of Germany accepted on the recommendation of Prof. Dr. Felix Kienast, examiner PD Dr. Matthias Bürgi, co-examiner Prof. Dr. Niklaus E. Zimmermann, co-examiner Prof. Dr. Harald Bugmann, co-examiner 2017 “Change alone is eternal, perpetual, immortal.” Arthur Schopenhauer (1788 – 1860) Content Summary 1 Zusammenfassung 3 Introduction 5 Chapter 1: How comparable are historical and contemporary topographic maps? A framework for a systematic assessment 25 Chapter 2: Evaluating forest transition based on a multi-scale approach: forest area dynamics in Switzerland 1850 - 2000 51 Chapter 3: Long-term change in drivers of forest cover expansion: an analysis for Switzerland (1850 - 2000) 81 Chapter 4: Persistence and change – Exploring the driving forces of long-term forest cover dynamics in the Swiss lowlands 111 Synthesis 141 Acknowledgements 155 Summary 1 Summary Global land-use has caused major changes in land cover, with a substantial global forest cover loss affecting a wide range of ecosystem services negatively. An important counterpart to the ongoing loss has been forest cover expansion, which has been taking place in many regions in Europe since the late nineteenth century. Land-cover change is driven by a complex interplay of natural and anthropogenic processes operating at different temporal and spatial scales. This thesis aims to analyze past patterns of forest cover change and their driving forces in Switzerland. To reach this goal the thesis is structured into three main topics, namely (1) the comparability of historical and contemporary maps, (2) the patterns of forest cover change, and (3) the driving forces of forest cover change. Topic 1 – Assessing the comparability of historical and contemporary maps: I developed a methodological framework, which provides a solid and structured basis for the systematic assessment of topographic map series (Chapter 1). This approach reduces the detection of spurious landscape changes caused by incompatible map series. The practical applicability of the framework was tested on a series of seven maps depicting the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland, between 1664 and 2000. Topic 2 – Identifying patterns of forest cover change: The patterns of forest cover were reconstructed for a period of 150 years for Switzerland (1850-2000, Chapter 2) and a period of 336 years for the Canton of Zurich (1664-2000, Chapter 4). The analyses were based on the historical and contemporary maps assessed in the previous step (Chapter 1). For the digitization, two different approaches were applied (point and polygon). The point-based approach was used for Switzerland, and was very time and cost efficient in comparison to the polygon approach. It allowed for the detection of general forest cover change patterns with a focus on forest transition events. In contrast, the more detailed polygon approach, which was used for the Canton of Zurich, was suitable to analyze forest cover continuity and fragmentation. Topic 3 – Examining the driving forces of forest cover change: The driving forces of forest cover change were analyzed by combining a quantitative approach (in Switzerland) and a qualitative approach (in the Canton of Zurich). Correlations between forest cover change and its driving 2 forces could be determined by applying spatially explicit modeling (Chapter 3). The explorative historical analysis enabled the understanding of causal interrelations between driving forces and forest cover change. Overall this doctoral thesis, based on an innovative methodological framework, is the first study to assess the comparability of Swiss maps retrospectively for a period of 336 years from 1664 to 2000. This assessment revealed high map comparability from the mid-19th century onwards. However, a spatially explicit comparison of the Gyger Map (1664) with later maps proved to be inadvisable due to a number of uncertainties (e.g., strong distortion, coarser level of generalization of landscape elements). With regard to changes in forest cover in Switzerland, remarkable variations were identified between different regions. While the lowlands experienced a high persistence in forest cover, the mountainous regions have been subjected to strong dynamics. Forest transition could be determined for the Eastern and Southern Alps around 1880. Concerning the driving forces of these forest cover changes, a strong dynamic over space and time was detected, e.g., at a national scale for Switzerland, the variable ‘slope’ was most important for forest cover expansion, whereas in the Southern Alps the temperature had a larger impact than the slope in most periods. Furthermore, a considerable time lag between societal changes and subsequent forest cover changes was detected. In light of the ongoing global net forest cover loss, which is predicted to continue in the near future, regions with expanding forest cover are increasingly important for the provisioning of forest ecosystem goods and services. In order to reduce or at least slow down the ongoing high rate of deforestation on our planet, enhancing the understanding of driving forces leading to forest cover expansion is vital. Therefore, this thesis contributes to gaining more insight into the drivers of forest cover change and persistence, which harbors the potential to move towards a more sustainable future in managing and preserving our forest landscapes. Zusammenfassung 3 Zusammenfassung Die Landbedeckung der Erde wurde maßgeblich durch die Landnutzung verändert. Besonders stark hat dazu der Rückgang der Waldflächen beigetragen, welcher nicht ohne negative Folgen für zahlreiche Ökosystemdienstleistungen blieb. Neben den weiterhin anhaltenden, großen Waldflächenverlusten, findet in vielen Regionen weltweit seit Ende des 19. Jahrhunderts eine Ausdehnung der Wälder statt. Diese Zu- und Abnahmen sind das Ergebnis eines komplexen Zusammenspiels von natürlichen und anthropogenen Prozessen, welche auf verschiedenen zeitlichen und räumlichen Ebenen wirken. Ziel dieser Dissertation ist es die Muster der Waldflächenveränderungen sowie deren treibende Kräfte zu analysieren. Zu diesem Zweck habe ich die Arbeit in die folgenden drei Haupthemen gegliedert: (1) die Vergleichbarkeit historischer und aktueller Karten, (2) die Muster der Waldflächenveränderung, und (3) die treibenden Kräfte der Waldflächenveränderung. Thema 1 – Auswertung der Vergleichbarkeit von historischen und aktuellen Karten: Zunächst habe ich einen methodischen Rahmen für eine systematische Auswertung der topographischen Karten bezüglich deren Vergleichbarkeit entwickelt. Die praktische Anwendbarkeit des methodischen Rahmens wurde an sieben Karten des Kantons Zürich getestet, welche zwischen 1664 und 2000 veröffentlicht wurden. Thema 2 – Erfassung von Waldflächenveränderungen: Die Waldflächen wurden für die gesamte Schweiz für einen Zeitraum von 150 Jahren (Kapitel 2) und für Kanton Zürich für einen Zeitraum von 336 Jahren (Kapitel 4) erfasst, basierend auf den historischen und aktuellen Karten, welche zuvor (Kapitel 1) evaluiert wurden. Für die Digitalisierung der Waldflächen wurden zwei unterschiedliche Methoden (Punkt und Polygon) angewendet. Die schweizweite, punktbasierte Erfassung, welche sehr kosteneffizient ist im Vergleich zur polygonbasierten Erfassung, ermöglicht die Analyse von generellen Waldflächenveränderungen mit dem Fokus auf den Zeitpunkt der „Forest Transition“. Die detailliertere Erhebung in Form von Polygonen für den Kanton Zürich ermöglicht zudem die Analyse der Kontinuität und Fragmentierung der Waldflächen. 4 Thema 3 – Untersuchung der treibenden Kräfte der Waldflächenveränderungen: Für die Untersuchung der treibenden Kräfte wurden quantitative und qualitative Ansätze kombiniert. Anhand der räumlich expliziten Modellierung (quantitativ) konnten Korrelationen zwischen den Waldflächenveränderungen und dessen treibende Kräfte, sowie generelle Trends aufgezeigt werden. Die explorative historische Analyse ermöglichte ein besseres Verständnis bezüglich der kausalen Zusammenhänge zwischen treibenden Kräften und Waldflächenveränderungen. Zusammenfassend kann festgehalten werden, dass im Rahmen dieser Doktorarbeit zum ersten Mal Schweizer Karten rückblickend bis einschließlich 1664 bezüglich ihrer Vergleichbarkeit im Hinblick auf Waldflächenveränderungen systematisch ausgewertet wurden. Die Auswertung ergab eine gute Vergleichbarkeit der Karten ab der Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts. Ein räumlich expliziter Vergleich der Gyger Karte (1664) mit nachfolgenden Karten ist nicht empfehlenswert auf Grund von diversen Ungenauigkeiten der Gyger Karte. In Bezug auf die Waldflächenveränderung in der Schweiz kann festgehalten werden, dass diese stark zwischen den Regionen und über die Zeit variiert. Während die Waldfläche im Flachland sehr stabil
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