THE WESTERN BALKANS AND THE EU: ‘THE HOUR OF EuROPE’ Edited by Jacques Rupnik Chaillot Papers | June 2011 126 In January 2002 the Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) became an autonomous Paris-based agency of the European Union. Following an EU Council Joint Action of 20 July 2001, modified by the Joint Action of 21 December 2006, it is now an integral part of the new structures that will support the further development of the CFSP/CSDP. The Institute’s core mission is to provide analyses and recommendations that can be of use and relevance to the formulation of the European security and defence policy. In carrying out that mission, it also acts as an interface between European experts and decision-makers at all levels. Chaillot Papers are monographs on topical questions written either by a member of the EUISS research team or by outside authors chosen and commissioned by the Institute. Early drafts are normally discussed at a seminar or study group of experts convened by the Institute and publication indicates that the paper is considered by the EUISS as a useful and authoritative contribution to the debate on CFSP/CSDP. Responsibility for the views expressed in them lies exclusively with authors. Chaillot Papers are also accessible via the Institute’s website: www.iss.europa.eu Cover photograph: The Mostar Bridge. © Peter Barritt/SUPERSTOCK/SIPA The original image has been modified. THE WESTERN BALKANS AND THE EU: ‘THE HOUR OF EuROPE’ Morton Abramowitz, Florian Bieber, Dejan Jović, Robert Manchin, Alina Mungiu-Pippidi, Sašo Ordanoski, Momčilo Radulović, Jacques Rupnik, Denisa Sarajlić-Maglić, Igor Štiks, Veton Surroi, Jovan Teokarevic; edited by Jacques Rupnik CHAILLOT PAPERS June 2011 126 Acknowledgements The original idea for this Chaillot Paper derived from views on the Balkans exchanged at the EUISS conference in Sarajevo in May 2010. The initial drafts were discussed at a seminar in Paris in January 2011. The EUISS would like to thank Jacques Rupnik for putting this project together, and to thank all of the authors and also participants in both meetings for their contributions and comments. The work of the EUISS publications department in bringing out this publication in record time is also gratefully acknowledged. Álvaro de Vasconcelos, Paris, May 2011 NB Disclaimer regarding use of Macedonia/FYROM: the Institute follows the EU and UN decision concerning the name of this country: FYROM/ ARYM (UN Resolutions 817 and 845/93). However, in this volume, some external authors have chosen to use different wording. Institute for Security Studies European Union Paris Director: Álvaro de Vasconcelos © EU Institute for Security Studies 2011. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the EU Institute for Security Studies. ISBN 978-92-9198-187-8 ISSN 1017-7566 QN-AA-11-126-EN-C doi:10.2815/24268 Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Condé-sur-Noireau (France) by Corlet Imprimeur. Graphic design by Hanno Ranck in collaboration with CL Design (Paris). Contents Executive Summary 7 The Balkans as a European question 17 Jacques Rupnik International actors: ‘the hour of Europe’ 18 Regional dimensions of state-building and EU integration 20 Member States as vectors for EU integration? 25 Conclusions 27 Part One: A view from the Balkans 31 Turning nationalists into EU supporters: the case of Croatia 33 Dejan Jović 1 Introduction 33 Croatia’s fivefold transition: from war to peace 36 Constructing a new narrative: making nationalism compatible with EU membership 40 Conclusion 43 BiH after the elections – a tale of disillusioned optimism 47 Denisa Sarajlić-Maglić 2 Introduction – post-election change? 47 Relations with neighbours 48 A shadow over democracy in BiH 50 EU integration – a declarative goal only 53 Agenda for the international community 55 Conclusion: the EU is losing a war of rhetoric 58 Ten years of post-Milosevic transition in Serbia: problems and prospects 59 3 Jovan Teokarevic Introduction 59 The economy 60 Politics 62 European integration 69 Kosovo 75 Conclusion 78 Contents Montenegro’s journey towards EU accession 79 Momčilo Radulović 4 The 2006 referendum and its aftermath 79 Future prospects 86 On track towards European integration 88 Conclusion 93 The story of Macedonian populism: ‘All we want is everything!’ 95 Sašo Ordanoski 5 Governing by the polls 97 When Disneyland meets les Champs Elysées 99 Exit strategy: take out more loans 103 The ‘name dispute’ 105 Sharp divisions on EU perspectives 107 Future prospects 108 The unfinished state(s) in the Balkans and the EU: the next wave 111 Veton Surroi 6 Anomalies resulting from Kosovo’s contested status 111 The EU’s unfinished policy 113 Regional dynamics of integration and disintegration 114 Possible future scenarios 116 A change of paradigm 118 Part Two: Horizontal perspectives 121 The European Union and citizenship regimes in the Western Balkans 123 Igor Štiks 7 Introduction 123 The EU and citizenship regimes in the Western Balkans 124 Five ways to (mis)manage citizenship regimes in the Western Balkans 126 Conclusion 134 Contents The Western Balkans after the ICJ Opinion 135 Florian Bieber 8 Introduction 135 ICJ decision: precedent or not? 136 Partition debate and future Serbia-Kosovo relations 138 Disintegration debate in Bosnia and Herzegovina 140 In what state are the Western Balkan states? 143 A house of cards? Building the rule of law in the Balkans 145 Alina Mungiu-Pippidi 9 The EU as a promoter of the rule of law 145 Explaining the evolution of the rule of law 146 Explaining the control of corruption 155 What to do next? 160 Balkan public opinion and EU accession 163 Robert Manchin 10 EU accession still supported – but not so fervently 165 Little change in expectations concerning the dates for EU accession – except in Bosnia and Herzegovina 168 The US and the EU in Balkan Kabuki 173 Morton Abramowitz 11 Introduction 173 Lessons of the past 174 A new era of Western policy cooperation under EU leadership 176 Annexes 181 About the authors 181 A Abbreviations 185 Executive Summary Today, more than fifteen years after the end of the wars of Yugoslavia’s dissolution, the ‘Balkan question’ remains more than ever a ‘European question’. In the eyes of many Europeans in the 1990s, Bosnia was the symbol of a collective failure, while Kosovo later became a catalyst for an emerging Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). In the last decade, with the completion of the process of redrawing the map of the region, the overall thrust of the EU’s Balkans policy has moved from an agenda dominated by security issues related to the war and its legacies to an agenda focused on the perspective of the Western Balkan states’ accession to the European Union, to which there has been a formal political commitment on the part of all EU Member States since the Thessaloniki Summit in June 2003. The framework was set, the political elites in the region were – at least verbally – committed to making Europe a priority and everyone was supposedly familiar with the policy tools thanks to the previous wave of Eastern enlargement. With the region’s most contentious issues apparently having been defused, the EU could move from stability through containment towards European integration. There are favourable trends to make this possible: the EU has emerged as the unchallenged international actor in the Balkans; the region, exhausted by a decade of conflict, is recovering stability and the capacity to cooperate; the EU has no other equally plausible enlargement agenda in sight and could use the direct involvement of some of its Member States in the region to facilitate the accession process. There are three international factors that have recently reinforced the EU’s role as the key player in the region: these concern the evolution of the respective roles of the United States, Russia and Turkey The US. There has been a gradual convergence of European and American policies in contrast to the underlying transatlantic tensions that accompanied the two US-led military interventions in the 1990s. The last decade was marked by a steady Europeanisation of the international presence in the Balkans, while the focus of US attention continued to shift to other international priorities, including a ‘G-2’ with China, a ‘reset’ 7 The Western Balkans and the EU: ‘the hour of Europe’ with Russia, nuclear non-proliferation in Iran, the war in Afghanistan as a test for NATO and relations with Pakistan, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the key to peace in the Middle East, and, most recently, the strategic implications of the 2011 ‘democratic wave’ in the Arab world. The Balkans is close to the bottom of the list, something which is not always fully appreciated in the region. Although scaling down the US engagement in the Balkans is consistent with the process of European integration, now seen as ‘the only game in town’, the EU should encourage that engagement to continue, especially in view of the fact that the United States enjoys strong credibility in the region (particularly in Kosovo and Bosnia) and that its professed primary goal, precisely, is to assist the region’s accession to the EU. In short: European integration strengthened by an Atlantic insurance policy. Russia. Moscow’s approach in recent years was to focus primarily on its relationship with Belgrade, acquiring a major stake in Serbia’s energy sector in exchange for Russian backing of Serbia’s position over Kosovo in the UN Security Council. After the ICJ ruling of August 2010 on Kosovo independence and Belgrade’s newfound pragmatism, Russia too has had to adjust.