Annexes Impact Assessment of the AG/NRM Strategic Objective of USAID/Senegal (Old SO2) Volume 2 of 3 May 1999 EPIQ Task Order No. 825 Contract NO. PCE-1-00-96-00002-00 Annex A. The Ecological and Historical Context in Senegal Prepared by John A. Lichte May 1999 For USAID/Senegal Environmental Policy and Institutional Strengthening Indefinite Quantity Contract (EPIQ) A-ii: 2 Table of Contents Table of Contents ...........................................................A-i 1.0 Ecological Context .................................................A2: 1 1.1 Land Resources ...............................................A2: 1 1.2 Natural Vegetation .............................................A2: 1 1.3 Forests .....................................................A7: 6 1.4 Land Use ....................................................A8: 7 1.5 Rainfall ....................................................A13: 12 2.0 Historical Context ................................................A16: 15 2.1 Population .................................................A16: 15 2.2 Colonial AG/NRM Policy .....................................A20: 19 2.3 Post-Independence AG/NRM Policy .............................A20: 19 2.4 Structural Adjustment .........................................A22: 21 2.4.1 Macroeconomic Effects of Structural Adjustment ..............A24: 23 2.5 The New Agricultural Policy ....................................A25: 24 2.6 Present AG/NRM Policy ......................................A26: 25 2.7 Other Policies that affect AG/NRM ..............................A26: 25 2.8 USAID/Senegal AG/NRM Policy ...............................A28: 27 2.9 Results of AG/NRM Policy Changes .............................A29: 28 2.10 Affects of the Historical and Ecological Context on Agricultural Production .................................................A31: 30 List of Figures Figure 1 Eco-Geographical Zones ....................................... A4: 3 Figure 2 Vegetation Map .............................................. A5: 4 Figure 3 Forest Status ................................................ A6: 5 Figure 4 Fallow Map ................................................. A9: 8 Figure 5 Fallow Trends ............................................... A10: 9 Figure 6 Agricultural Expansion Maps 1980-2030 .......................... A11: 10 Figure 7 Agricultural E0xpansion Maps 2030-2050 ......................... A12: 11 Figure 8 Historic Rainfall Maps ........................................ A14: 13 Figure 9 Trends in Average Cumulative Rainfall ............................A15: 14 Figure 10 Graph of Population Increase 1900-1995 ..........................A17: 16 Figure 11 Dakar urban Growth .........................................A18: 17 A-i Figure 12 Rural Population Densities by Regions ............................A19: 18 Figure 13 Macro-Economic Indicators ................................... A24: 23 A-ii 1.0 Ecological Context 1 Senegal is a semi-arid country with a population estimated at 9 million (1998). It lies along the western- most portion of West Africa’s Atlantic Coast, sharing borders with Mauritania, Mali, Guinea, Guinea- Bissau, and the Gambia. It has a surface area of 196,720 square kms, or 76,720 square miles, which is about the size of North Dakota. Its dimensions are approximately 700 km east/west and 500 kms north/south. 1.1 Land Resources Senegal is a flat country, 90% of which is less than 100 m in elevation. Two-thirds of it territory occupies an ancient sedimentary basin which rarely rises more than 50 meters above sea level. The extreme south- east (Kedougou), covers a portion of the African Shield, and rises to a maximum of 400-500 meters. Approximately one fifth (19%) of the surface area is considered suitable for agricultural uses, one third (32%) is classified as suitable for forest or savanna, and the remaining one-half (48%) is classified as unsuitable for agricultural purposes.2 These land resources are categorized in 13 eco-geographical zones in the NEAP as presented in the EROS/CSE eco-geographical zone map below. Without going into great detail, it is important to note that soils throughout Senegal are classified as having average to below average agricultural potential. Because of its flatness, water erosion is an important factor in a relatively small portion of the country. However, many of the predominantly sand soils are very susceptible to wind erosion. The practice in the peanut basin of eliminating almost all tree cover from fields and leaving the soil completely bare following the peanut harvest has contributed to enormous soil losses through wind erosion. 1.2 Natural Vegetation When considered in detail, natural vegetation across Senegal is quite diverse and complex, as indicated in the vegetation map below. Natural vegetation in Senegal is categorized as belonging to three large 1 This section relies heavily on maps and graphics prepared by USGS/EROS/CSE and on preliminary drafts of text prepared for the EROS final report: "The State of the Natural Resources of Senegal: A Study of Long- Term Change", 1999, USGS EROS Data Center. The authors are: Gray Tappan, Amadou Hadj, Eric Wood, Ron Lietzow, Moussa Sall, Djibril Ndiaye, and Magatte Ba. 2 CONSERE, 1995, cited in Bucknall et al. A3: 2 ecological regions, which in turn is closely dependent on rainfall and evapotranspiration; the Sahelian, Sudan, and Guinean regions. The Sahelian region is Eco-geographical zones Eco-geographical zones A4: 3 Vegetation map Vegetation Map A5: 4 Forest Status Forest Status A6: 5 approximately that arid area north of a line from Mbour to Bakel. Its vegetation is characterized by grasslands, including such species as Aristida and Cenchrus, dotted with acacia trees. The Sudan region covers nearly 2/3 of the country, grassland gives way to a open woodland savanna, with tree species particularly present in the valleys. The characteristic species include Cassia sieberiana, Daniella oliveri, Oxytenanthera abyssinica, Khaya senegalensis, Terminalia, macroptera, Bombax costatum, and Sterculia setigera. The Guinean region is restricted to the extreme south-west corner of Senegal where again forestation is particularly dense in the valleys. The dominant woody species include: Parkia biglobosa, Ceiba pentandra, Khaya senegalensis, Detarium senegalensis, Parinari excelsa, Daniella oliveri, and Cola cordifolia. In some places there are important populations of Elaeis gueneensis and Borrasus aethiopium. As a result of declining rainfall over the last 20-30 years, the area dominated by arid Sahel species has expanded in the northern part of the country, and Sudan and Guinean species have retracted further south. This change is observed primarily in terms of reduced species richness and in some areas as substantial mortality of species whose needs with regard to rainfall are no longer met. Patrick Gonzales, in his dissertation on the subject estimates that the Sahelian and Guinean ecological zones have shifted southward about 25-30 km between 1945 and 1993.3 1.3 Forests Wood and charcoal are the primary energy sources in Senegal covering 94 percent of domestic energy and 54 percent of total energy consumption. Consumption is estimated at 3.5 million m3 annually while potential fuelwood production is estimated at 3.1 million m3 per year. While the deficit is relatively small at present, increasing population and decreasing forest reserves may result in a deficit of over 4 million m3 per year by 2010. The NEAP estimates that while various types of forest still cover more than half of Senegal, forest area declined from 12.7 million ha in 1980 to 11.9 million ha in 1990. Senegal has 213 protected forest areas covering about 6,238,000 ha among the total 6.5 million ha which are part of protected areas. The EROS/CSE estimates that 200,000 ha have been cleared each year would seem to indicate that the change may been even greater, although certainly not all of the land cleared for agriculture each year is classified as forest land. The state of these protected forests varies but many are significantly degraded due to drought and encroachment for agricultural purposes. As examples, EROS analysis indicates that in Kolda, agriculturalists have converted only 4.6 % of the Guimara Forest, but 28.8% of the Pata Forest.4 The 3 Gonzalez, Patrick, 1997, Dynamics of biodiversity and human carrying capacity in the Senegal Sahel. 4 Gray Tappan, personal communication. A7: 6 forest status map above indicates how forest areas have become degraded between 1965 and 1994. The degradation of forest resources and natural vegetation in general is a function of drought conditions, the over exploitation of forest resources for fuelwood and charcoal and the clearing of forest land for agricultural purposes. 1.4 Land Use USAID/Senegal’s 1991 Agricultural Sector Analysis estimated that 62 percent, or 2.356 million ha of the approximately 3.8 million ha of arable in Senegal were cultivated. It added that when fallow land was included, this increased to 79 percent or 3 million ha. It estimates that per-capital land under cultivation declined from 0.5 ha per person to less than 0.3 ha per person between 1976 and 1990.5 The 1997 Senegal Agricultural Sector Analysis Update estimates that 65 percent of the Senegal’s potentially arable land is cultivated, based on data reported by CONSERE in a 1995 report. EROS/CSE use estimates based on measurements of land cleared for agricultural purposes taken from the mapping of land use from satellite imagery and aerial photography. They