january 2012 . Vol 5 . Issue 1

Contents The U.S.-Pakistan Relationship

FEATURE ARTICLE 1 The U.S.-Pakistan Relationship in the in the Year Ahead Year Ahead By Ahmed Rashid By Ahmed Rashid

Reports 5 Profiles of Mexico’s Seven Major Drug Trafficking Organizations By Peter Chalk 8 Bioterrorism: Still a Threat to the United States By Leonard A. Cole 12 Radicalization Processes in Afghanistan By Marisa L. Porges 15 Individual Jihadist Operations in Europe: Patterns and Challenges By Petter Nesser 18 Al-Shabab’s Western Recruitment Strategy By Alexander Meleagrou-Hitchens

22 Recent Highlights in Terrorist Activity 28 CTC Sentinel Staff & Contacts

Pakistani students demonstrate against the November 2011 cross-border NATO airstrike on Pakistani troops. - Photo by AFP/Getty Images n the past six months, a series for the year 2012 will be whether the of major incidents between the United States and Pakistan can rebuild United States and Pakistan has a much abused relationship. brought their relationship to a Inew low. Even Pakistan’s longstanding This article will review the primary allies and European aid donors are incidents that led to the worsening increasingly at odds with Islamabad’s of relations in 2011, identify some current foreign policy. These tensions U.S. missteps, warn of a number of have Pakistani civilians feeling as if flashpoints that could occur in 2012, About the CTC Sentinel their country is at war with the world. and finally offer critical suggestions The Combating Terrorism Center is an for how the U.S.-Pakistan relationship independent educational and research Although all of Pakistan’s international can be resuscitated in the months institution based in the Department of Social relationships are important, it is the ahead. Sciences at the United States Military Academy, one with the United States that is most West Point. The CTC Sentinel harnesses critical to its future stability as well The Year 2011 in Review: the Center’s global network of scholars and as the maintenance of peace in South The Fracturing U.S.-Pakistan Alliance practitioners to understand and confront Asia. The 60-year alliance between The May 2011 killing of al-Qa`ida contemporary threats posed by terrorism and the United States and Pakistan is leader Usama bin Ladin by U.S. Special other forms of political violence. deteriorating rapidly.1 A key question Operations Forces in Abbottabad, close to a Pakistani military base, humiliated the Pakistan Army. Pakistan’s Inter- The views expressed in this report are those of 1 The U.S.-Pakistan relationship perhaps reached its peak Services Intelligence (ISI) has avoided the the authors and not of the U.S. Military Academy, in June 2004, when President George W. Bush designated the Department of the Army, or any other agency question of whether it was complicit in Pakistan a “major non-Nato ally.” See “Bush Names Paki- of the U.S. Government. hiding Bin Ladin, or merely incompetent stan ‘Major Ally,’” BBC, June 17, 2004.

1 january 2012 . Vol 5. Issue 1 in not discovering the al-Qa`ida chief critical issues such as the country’s Contributing to the tensions is the earlier. Instead, it has beat the drum of ongoing economic crisis. Defending country’s failure to provide security to protecting the country’s sovereignty on national sovereignty, even at the price its citizens. Even as the Afghan Taliban account of repeated U.S. “aggression.” of allowing anti-American, Islamist continue to enjoy safe sanctuaries By November 26, 2011, when 24 extremist groups to operate on its soil, in Pakistan, the army is fighting the Pakistani soldiers were killed by U.S. is considered acceptable by many. Army Pakistani Taliban in the northwest helicopters and fighters jets in Pakistani chief Kiyani has mobilized additional who are determined to overthrow the territory at a checkpoint on the Afghan forces and a range of anti-aircraft government. Since 2004, thousands border, the U.S.-Pakistan relationship weaponry on the Pakistan-Afghanistan of soldiers and civilians have died had deteriorated dramatically.2 The border and ordered his troops to shoot in Pakistani Taliban suicide attacks. United States had failed to convince the down any future American intruders, Pakistan also suffers from the separatist Pakistan Army to rein in the Taliban’s without answering the key question of insurgency in Baluchistan, which is Haqqani network, and Pakistan now what would happen should that outcome becoming bloodier by the day. felt it was being targeted by the United occur. States deliberately in retaliation. As a result of this violence, large An already weak and paranoid civilian tracts of the country are no longer At home, the Pakistan Army’s image government has virtually given up on controlled by the government, while was dented by the killing of Bin Ladin in governance, and has been beset with other regions have been denuded of Abbottabad and the Pakistani Taliban scandals. It is cowed by the military one their population through insurgency, attack on the Karachi naval base. Both day, terrified by an angry public the next. sectarian warfare, ethnic conflict and incidents highlighted the military’s Other days it is defiant and threatens multiple natural disasters including two failure to provide security—in the first the army, while at the same time is in consecutive years of devastating floods instance, a U.S. military force violated danger of being thrown out of office by in Sindh Province. There are millions of Pakistan’s sovereignty undetected; in the Supreme Court. The latest crisis internally displaced persons as a result the second, a band of Pakistani Taliban is the “memogate” scandal in which of conflicts in two provinces and floods fighters breached one of the country’s Hussain Haqqani, Pakistan’s former in another two, although there is no most secure military facilities. ambassador to Washington, is alleged definitive knowledge of the true figure to have asked an intermediary to send or where many of the displaced citizens Due to these two embarrassments, a memo to the Obama administration have taken refuge. Pakistan’s military went on a domestic asking for American help to defang offensive by allowing and encouraging the military’s all powerful ISI. This U.S. Missteps a wave of anti-Americanism to sweep has already led to questions on whether There is little doubt, however, that the country and by depicting itself President Asif Ali Zardari, who is ill but Pakistan’s series of crises have been as a victim of U.S. machinations. defiant, will survive politically or whether exacerbated by a mismanaged U.S. Pakistan’s military manipulated the he will be linked to “memogate” and be strategy for Pakistan. For eight years, local media, allowed banned Islamic forced to resign. former President George W. Bush extremist parties to hold rallies in the largely preferred not to recognize that streets, and persuaded parliament to In the wider world and the global there were Taliban on Pakistani soil defend the army’s position. As each marketplace, there is naturally because former Pakistani President crisis point with the United States enormous international concern when Pervez Musharraf was considered a close played out, the military ensured that a nuclear weapon state places honor ally. Between 2001 and 2010, Pakistan Pakistan’s elected, civilian government before discourse and negotiations. received approximately $20 billion in was sitting under a cloud of uncertainty While most of the more than $2 billion U.S. funds, with the majority of the and paralysis regarding its tenure and in U.S. aid to Pakistan for 2011-2012 money going to the military, while the longevity. Yet it is also true that on the has been canceled, suspended or slowed economy and civil society were largely street and among the army rank-and- down, even European diplomats who ignored.3 Still, the army resented that it file, anti-Americanism is rampant to provide major donor aid to Pakistan are was never taken on board as a partner the point that younger army officers angry that the country refuses to carry out to discuss the Bush administration’s are demanding that General Ashfaq desperately needed economic reforms. Afghanistan strategy. That resentment Parvez Kiyani, the Pakistan Army chief, has only deepened under President break relations with the United States The economy is crashing, while Barack Obama, who promised a tougher entirely. inflation and joblessness are reaching but more realistic U.S. strategy with intolerable levels. As of early 2012, aid geared toward Pakistan’s civilian Today, anti-Americanism has become Pakistan’s civilian government has sector. Yet the Obama administration the passport to political legitimacy failed to provide gas, can only keep has also remained unwilling to share and patriotism in Pakistan. Sustaining the electricity running for a few hours with the Pakistan Army its plans for the ghairat, or honor of the country, has a day, and has been unable to alleviate Afghanistan, and it has intensified come to dominate the collective mindset constant fuel shortages. The country’s drone attacks in Pakistani territory, at the cost of rational dialogue or other infrastructure—railways, the national airline, the supply of gas, electricity 3 Chris Allbritton, “Analysis: Civilians Have Hand in 2 “Pakistan Buries 24 Troops Killed in NATO Airstrike,” and fuel—are all in poor condition. Showdown With Pakistan Military,” Reuters, January BBC, November 27, 2011. 13, 2012.

2 january 2012 . Vol 5. Issue 1 periodically crossed the Pakistan border through Pakistan for Afghanistan have could intervene, ratcheting up border without permission, and deployed spies been stopped; an airbase used by the tensions even more. across the country. U.S. drone campaign has been evacuated; military and intelligence sharing are at Third, Pakistan says it will respond The Obama administration surged a halt; and all written agreements with with force to any new U.S.-NATO troop levels in Afghanistan even while the United States are being reviewed intrusion—even if by mistake—into its announcing their withdrawal. It by Islamabad. Pakistan is demanding territory. This is a threat that any one of pledged to build a regional alliance an end to drone flights and fewer the 147,000 soldiers on the eastern border to support Afghanistan, yet this CIA agents on the ground. To prevent could undertake with or without orders. has not come to fruition. Talks with worsening the crisis, the U.S. halted the Afghan Taliban were repeatedly all drone strikes over Pakistan in Hope for an Improving Relationship? delayed due to reported opposition late November and December 2011.4 Can the United States and Pakistan from the Pentagon and Central Certainly, military-to-military relations emerge from this poisonous swamp of Intelligence Agency. will improve in 2012, but Pakistan will a relationship, and is there a common not give the United States the kind of agenda that could reunite and rebuild From the perspective of Pakistan’s carte blanche it had in the past. trust at some level? First, it should not military, these factors suggest that there be expected that the relationship will is not a credible U.S. plan to transition In 2012, however, there is a real danger reach its previous heights. Instead, security in Afghanistan to local forces that another bloody incident between the first building blocks have to be post-2014. Washington’s so-called the two militaries could occur and restarting military and intelligence transition is perceived in Pakistan as worsen the crisis. There are several cooperation—even at a minimal level. a hasty exit strategy, similar to what triggers for underlying tensions to Second, the Pakistanis will not budge just recently occurred in Iraq, which explode. First, between 10,000 and until they hear what future U.S. is already creating a political crisis 20,000 U.S. Marines are expected to plans for Afghanistan entail and are in that Middle East state. The U.S. redeploy from Helmand and Kandahar in assured that Pakistan will be seriously withdrawal will likely leave behind a southern Afghanistan to the provinces consulted before the United States takes of eastern Afghanistan to tackle the major steps—for example, such as the “From the perspective of virulent Taliban network of Jalaluddin escalated withdrawal of U.S. troops that Haqqani in the spring of 2012.5 This the Obama administration is expected Pakistan’s military, these will raise tensions with Pakistan, and to announce at the May NATO summit factors suggest that there could risk another dangerous incident in Chicago. and even increase the chances of direct is not a credible U.S. plan U.S.-Pakistan clashes or the downing of The most realistic hope for the future to transition security in aircraft. is for the United States and Pakistan to jointly develop a political reconciliation Afghanistan to local forces Second, there are accusations that plan for Afghanistan that could end the post-2014.” Afghanistan’s National Directorate Taliban insurgency, bring the Taliban to of Security, which is tired of the the table and initiate a four way dialogue ISI’s long-running support to the among the Taliban, Kabul, Washington Afghan Taliban, is allegedly providing and Islamabad. While Pakistan has deeply polarized Afghanistan, acute sanctuary in mountainous Kunar supported reconciliation (but has not ethnic rivalries, a weak economy and Province to Maulana Qazi Fazlullah and delivered on it), the United States the prospect of civil war. Moreover, his fighters. Fazlullah leads a faction has been ambivalent. The divisions Pakistan is alarmed by what it views of the Pakistani Taliban who fled the within the Obama administration may as greater U.S. reliance on India for its Swat Valley after being ousted by the now be coming to an end, however, post-2014 Afghanistan plans, which to Pakistan Army in 2009. They escaped as all parts of the U.S. government Pakistan is completely unacceptable into Afghanistan and are now attacking recognize that there can be no orderly since the two states are rivals. As a Pakistani positions along the border U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan— result, whether out of anger or strategy, before retreating back to Kunar—just and nor will Karzai have a chance to Pakistan’s ISI has retained its most as the Afghan Taliban retreat into succeed—without a reduction if not an significant card—the Afghan Taliban Pakistan after launching attacks. end to the insurgency. leaders who have sought refuge on its Fazlullah is also linked to Hakimullah soil. Mehsud, the virulent leader of the There are four separate processes Pakistani Taliban.6 If Fazlullah is not where reconciliation has been pursued. Further Risks to the U.S.-Pakistan stopped by the spring, the Pakistanis The first is the long running, off-and- Relationship in 2012 on again dialogue between Pakistan Due to the series of incidents between 4 Drone strikes resumed in Pakistan on January 11, and Afghanistan. This stalled in late the U.S. and Pakistani militaries in 2012. 2011 after the Afghans became fed up 2011, the Pakistan Army has broken 5 Robert Burns, “Afghanistan: Marines to Wind Down with Pakistan’s refusal to offer Taliban nearly all links with the United States Combat in 2012,” Huffington Post, November 26, 2011. leaders with whom to negotiate, as well regarding its support for the U.S. war in 6 The ISI alleges that the CIA and Indian intelligence are as the September murder in Kabul of Afghanistan: U.S. and NATO supplies also backing Fazlullah. Karzai’s main interlocutor, Burhanuddin

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Rabbani, who the Afghans accuse the ISI Afghanistan, and the Pakistani Taliban within the interagency process in of killing but which Pakistan denies. said they would refrain from attacking Washington and suffering from a lack Pakistani forces. For months, the ISI of assistance from Pakistan. The second is the three way U.S.- had been in dialogue with the various Pakistan-Afghanistan dialogue that is Pakistani Taliban groups to initiate Now the core group dialogue needs to called the “core group dialogue.” It has a cease-fire, and the announcement be urgently reactivated. Grossman must also stalled due to Rabbani’s death, the means that the ISI has persuaded show that he has the direct support of November border incident, as well as Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar President Obama. The Taliban contacts Pakistan’s refusal to attend the Bonn to assist in the negotiations. What this made through Germany and Qatar need gathering in December where a critical may portend for Afghanistan when the to be involved with the core group. core group meeting was scheduled to Taliban launch their spring offensive Ultimately, the four processes must take place. Both these dialogues are against U.S. forces is not clear, but merge and produce a common set of based on the assumption that once they clearly the Taliban are also—like the negotiators and negotiations to take get started, the Taliban will join them. Americans—going to keep a “talk-fight” the peace process further. None of this strategy for some time. is possible until a modicum of trust Third, there has been a direct Kabul- is reestablished between the United Taliban secret dialogue that has had its Indeed, despite all the peace talk States and Pakistan. Only then can the positives and negatives. Its key Taliban activity, there has been only one point of critical issue of how, when and under interlocutor, Mullah Abdul Ghani contact facilitated by the ISI. It arranged what conditions can Pakistan send the Baradar, the second-in-command of a meeting among U.S. officials, the head Afghan Taliban back to Afghanistan to the Afghan Taliban, was arrested by of the ISI and Ibrahim Haqqani, the son take part in reconciliation. the ISI two years ago and has not been of Jalaluddin Haqqani, in the United released, nor has any reason been given Arab Emirates in August 2011.9 Clearly, On a broader front, the core group could for his continued detention despite the meeting was unsuccessful because also discuss how to end all terrorist repeated requests by Karzai for Pakistan the Haqqani network attacked the U.S. safe havens in Pakistan, not just for to free him. The Afghans accuse the Embassy in Kabul the following month. the Taliban but for other groups that Pakistanis of being in denial that they threaten Central Asia, the Caucasus, are keeping the Taliban leaders, while Pakistan needs to be brought into India and Kashmir. The Pakistan the ISI by its actions has demonstrated any U.S.-Taliban dialogue as soon Army needs to be weaned away from that it will not encourage independent as possible. Without Pakistan’s its reliance on extremists to pursue talks between Kabul and the Taliban participation, it is unlikely that the its foreign policy goals. This can only without Pakistani involvement. Taliban leaders based in Pakistan who happen once the imagined or real are resentful, but extremely fearful, of threats from India and Afghanistan are The fourth path has modestly proved the ISI will be sufficiently emboldened diminished. Only that can give friends, to be the most successful. A German- to take such talks further, while allies and neighbors the confidence led initiative with backing from Qatar Pakistan’s non-cooperation could prove that Pakistan is determined to further brought together this summer a Taliban to be detrimental as it could act as a regional and global stability and not mediator and mid-level U.S. officials spoiler. Indeed, the Afghans argue that unsettle the region by leveraging who held several meetings in Doha, Pakistan is already a spoiler. extremists. Qatar. According to Western diplomats, after months of delay, the Americans To his credit, U.S. Special Envoy Ahmed Rashid, a journalist, is the author of had agreed to announce at the December for Afghanistan and Pakistan Marc the bestselling book Taliban. His last book 2011 Bonn meeting that there would Grossman tried to sustain the core was Descent into Chaos: The U.S. and be an exchange of prisoners7 between group dialogue on Afghanistan through the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan the United States and the Taliban as a summer and autumn 2011, even as the and Central Asia. Mr. Rashid’s latest confidence building measure and the rest of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship book, Pakistan on the Brink: The Future Taliban could open a liaison office in was collapsing around him. He hoped of America, Pakistan and Afghanistan, Qatar so that talks could continue more that even as other disputes emerged, will be published in the spring of 2012. freely. both countries had a common desire and an intrinsic need to retain their Pakistan has always opposed the dialogue on Afghanistan reconciliation. Qatar office,8 and in January 2012 an Grossman’s efforts, however, came to ominous development occurred. The a halt, overwhelmed by the weight of Afghan Taliban and Pakistani Taliban the military’s ire at the Americans and announced that they agreed to unite to Pakistan’s unwillingness to cooperate intensify their attacks on U.S. troops in due to its anger at the Qatar talks. Grossman has had a particularly tough 7 “Clinton Appears to Acknowledge Talks about Trans- year trying to keep the Afghan talks ferring Taliban Prisoners from Guantanamo,” Associ- ongoing, combating resistance from ated Press, January 11, 2012. 8 By mid-January 2012, there were signs that Pakistan’s 9 David Ignatius, “The Challenge of Getting the Taliban military was softening its position on this issue. to the Table,” Washington Post, January 11, 2012.

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Profiles of Mexico’s Seven actively involved in the American during the 1980s and 1990s. For many people smuggling “business.” It is now years, the Gulf Cartel was considered Major Drug Trafficking a common practice for cartels to assist the most powerful of the Mexican Organizations migrants looking to enter the United DTOs, enforcing its control through a States illegally on condition that they highly feared paramilitary arm known By Peter Chalk carry cocaine packs with them.4 Finally, as the Los Zetas. Since 2007, however, there is some concern about a possible the prominence of the group has drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) nexus emerging between the Mexican begun to wither, both as a result of the in Mexico have emerged with alarming drug trade and terrorism. According elimination of much of its leadership— speed during the last several years, to U.S. officials, Lebanese Hizb Allah including the syndicate’s longtime plunging the country’s northern border has already secured a highly lucrative godfather, Osiel Cardenas Guillen, and states into a virtual war zone as they source of financing by helping to launder his brother, Antonio Ezequiel Cardenas compete for lucrative smuggling routes cocaine profits for groups such as the Guillen6—and due to the defection of the into the United States.1 Although Los Zetas through a range of Shi`a- Los Zetas in 2009, which now act as an Mexican President Felipe Calderon owned businesses in West Africa.5 independent organization. The group’s has moved to decisively dislodge the current leader is Jorge Eduardo Costilla cartels’ power base since taking office in This article provides brief background Sanchez (“El Coss”) who is desperately 2006, several prominent organizations information on the seven DTOs that continue to exist, benefiting from remain at the forefront of the cocaine pervasive corruption that has extended trade in Mexico: the Gulf Cartel, Los “According to U.S. officials, to the highest echelons of Mexico’s law Zetas, La Familia, the Sinaloa Cartel, the Lebanese Hizb Allah enforcement bureaucracy. Beltran Leyva Organization, the Carrillo Fuentes Syndicate (Juarez Cartel), has already secured a While DTOs have obvious ramifications and the Arellano Felix Organization highly lucrative source for Mexican stability, their activities (Tijuana Cartel). have also directly impinged on U.S. of financing by helping to security, with high-level criminality The Gulf Cartel launder cocaine profits north of the border frequently The Gulf Cartel is based out of “migrating” south. This has been Matamoros in Tamaulipas State, just for groups such as the Los particularly evident in Arizona, which across the border from Brownsville, Zetas through a range of currently has among the highest rates of Texas. The group’s origins date back drug-related kidnappings in the United to bootlegging in the 1970s, with the Shi`a-owned businesses in States. Another state experiencing move to cocaine trafficking occurring West Africa.” difficulties is Texas, where merchants and wealthy families in frontier towns collector and enforcer for cartels seeking to extend local periodically face extortion threats and market control. See, for instance, Jay Albanese, “Prison which occasionally witnesses narco- Break: Mexican Gang Moves Operations Outside US trying to prevent the Zetas from making 2 murders. On a wider level, syndicates Jails,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, December 4, 2008; in-roads into its northern Tamaulipas have directly contributed to a growing Adam Elkus, “Gangs, Terrorists and Trade,” Foreign Pol- trafficking corridor, which runs problem of inner-city gang violence; icy in Focus, April 17, 2007; John P. Sullivan and Adam between Matamoros and Nuevo Laredo 7 Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, Elkus, “State of Siege: Mexico’s Criminal Insurgency,” on the Texan border. As part of this Dallas and San Francisco are all cases Small Wars Journal, 2008; Clare Ribando, Gangs in Cen- effort, the Gulf Cartel has developed and 3 in point. DTOs have also become tral America (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research deployed “narco-tanks”—trucks fitted Service, 2005). with air conditioning and steel plates 1 An estimated 47,515 people have died in Mexico drug- 4 Tim Padgett, “People Smugglers Inc.,” Time Magazine, that can only be breached with anti- related violence since 2006. See “Mexico Drug War August 12, 2003; Heather MacDonald, “The Illegal-Alien tank grenades—to patrol its smuggling Deaths over Five Years Now Total 47,515,” BBC, January Crime Wave,” City Journal, Winter 2004; Jameson Tay- routes. Four of these vehicles were 12, 2012. lor, “Illegal Immigration: Drugs, Gangs and Crime,” Civ- 2 Brian Ross, Richard Esposito and Asa Eslocker, “Kid- itas Institute, November 2007; “National Drug Threat 6 Cardenas was arrested in 2003 but continued to run napping Capital of USA,” ABC News, February 11, 2009; Assessment 2010,” National Drug Intelligence Center, the Gulf Cartel from prison. He was extradited to the Fred Burton and Scott Stewart, “The Long Arm of the U.S. Department of Justice, February 2010. United States in January 2007. Lawless,” Stratfor, February 25, 2009; Randal Archi- 5 Jo Becker, “Beirut Bank Seen as a Hub of Hezbollah’s 7 Fred Burton and Stephen Meiners, “Mexico and the bold, “Wave of Drug Violence Creeping into Arizona Financing,” New York Times, December 13, 2011. Gunmen War Against the Drug Cartels in 2008,” Stratfor, De- from Mexico, Officials Say,” New York Times, February from Los Zetas were also alleged to have been involved in cember 9, 2008; Sylvia Longmire, “Mexico’s Drug War: 23, 2009; David Danelo, “Space Invaders: Mexican Ille- Iran’s purported recent plot to assassinate the Saudi am- TCO 101: The Gulf Cartel,” www.borderviolencean- gal Aliens and the US,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, October bassador to Washington. If true, it is not unreasonable to alysis.typepad.com, accessed December 12, 2011; George 29, 2008. assume that Hizb Allah acted as the go-between for the Grayson, “Mexico and the Drug Cartels,” Foreign Policy 3 The Carrillo Fuentes group frequently uses Barrio plan given its close relations with Tehran and suspected Research Institute, August 2007; Jo Tuckman, “Body Azteca to carry out contract killings in Texas and New ties to the Mexican syndicate. For more on the supposed Count Mounts as Drug Cartels Battle Each Other – and Mexico. Another organization generating concern is the plot, see Charlie Savage and Scott Shane, “Iranians Ac- the Police,” Guardian, May 27, 2008; “5630 Execution Mexican La Eme, which has expanded into the barrios of cused of Plot to Kill Saudi’s U.S. Envoy,” New York Times, Murders in 2008: Mexican Drug Cartels,” Right Side eastern Los Angeles where it works as a freelance debt October 11, 2011. News, January 1, 2009.

5 january 2012 . Vol 5. Issue 1 seized from a garage in Camargo in June of the group’s founders and long-term group now poses a serious challenge to 2011.8 leaders, Heriberto Lazcano (“El Lazca”), La Familia’s continued organizational remains at large, along with his number cohesion, if not existence.13 Los Zetas two, Trevino Morales (“Z-40”).11 The Los Zetas were founded by former The Sinaloa Cartel members of the Grupos Aeromoviles La Familia The Sinaloa Cartel was established as de Fuerzas Especiales (GAFE), an elite La Familia emerged as an independent La Alizana de Sangre in the mid-1990s. special forces unit that deserted from group in 2006 with the purported dual After its founder, Hector Luis Palma the Mexican military between 1996 aim of “defending citizens, merchants, Salazar (“El Guero”), was arrested in and 2000.9 It acted as the paramilitary businesses and farmers” from all forms 1995, Joaquin Guzman (“El Chapo,” or arm of the Gulf Cartel, but in 2009 it of crime, and filling the security void left “Shorty”) took control and remains the emerged as an increasingly significant by the central government. Its founder, current leader. He is the most wanted DTO in its own right. The organization Nazario Moreno Gonzalez (“El Mas drug lord in Mexico and is thought to is currently competing with the Gulf Loco,” or the “Craziest One”), required have a personal fortune of $1 billion.14 Cartel for control over trafficking routes all members to carry a “spiritual The Sinaloa Cartel controls most of in Tamaulipas State, although it has manual” that contained references the state by the same name and retains also expanded its presence to Zacatecas, to pseudo-Christian aphorisms for important bases in Baja California, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campache, the self-improvement, which gave the Durango (where Guzman is believed capital territory, Quintana Roo and organization overtones as a religious to be hiding), Sonora, Jalisco and Chiapas. The group has also worked cult. Since its creation, however, La Chihuahua. The group is known to have with the Beltran Leyva Organization Familia has systematically morphed into in an effort to extend influence into a DTO, becoming especially notorious Cuidad Juarez—the locus of one of the for what it refers to as “social work”— “Although the Sinaloa main trafficking routes into the United the ruthless execution (usually by Cartel has witnessed the States. Although the Los Zetas have beheading) of those who do not conform been described as one of the most violent to the parameters of its self-defined arrests of high-ranking DTOs in Mexico, its ability to consolidate “law enforcement” code. The group members, it remains control over the country’s northern has a confirmed presence in 77 cities border provinces has been curtailed by across the state of Michoacan (its main the most powerful and the arrest of several top commanders base), Queretaro, Guanajuanto, Jalisco, influential DTO in Mexico.” since 2008. Prominent in this regard Colima, Aguascalientes and Guerro, as are Mateo Lopez (“Comandante well as the Federal district.12 Despite Mateo”), Efrain Teodoro Torres (“Z- this wide geographic “footprint,” La 14”), Daniel Perez (“El Cachetes”), Familia has suffered considerably established distribution cells across Manuel Perez Izquierdo (“El Siete from both leadership decapitations the United States, sending cocaine Latas”), Marco Garza de Leon Quiroga and desertions. In December 2010, its shipments via tunnels dug below the (“El Chabelo”) and Jaime Gonzalez founder Gonzalez was killed during southern U.S. border. It is also thought Duran (“El Hummer”). The first five a shoot-out with security forces; this to have set up additional Andean hubs to were all high-ranking members in the setback was followed six months later facilitate the transshipment of Peruvian group’s overall leadership structure, when his successor, Jose de Jesus and Colombian cocaine through West while the sixth was responsible for Mendez Vargas (“El Chango,” or “The Africa to Europe. Although the Sinaloa coordinating and overseeing cocaine Monkey”), was captured in the city Cartel has witnessed the arrests of imports from Central America.10 One of Aguascalientes, roughly 265 miles high-ranking members, including the southeast of Mexico City. Compounding infamous Teodoro Garcia Simental 8 “Mexican Army Destroys Drug Cartel ‘Narco-Subs,’” the group’s problems has been internal (“El Teo,” who was behind much of the BBC News, June 6, 2011. hemorrhaging, with growing numbers drug-related violence that plagued the 15 9 According to Mexican authorities, as many as 1,000 of members leaving to join a splinter border provinces in 2008 and 2009) members of GAFE have defected from the army since group known as Caballeros Templarios the late 1990s. Those critical to the formation of Los Ze- (Knight’s Templar). Enrique Plancarte 13 Randal Archibold, “Mexican Police Arrest Leader of tas included Arturo Guzman Decena (“Z-1,” now dead), Solis and Servando Gomez Martinez Crime Gang,” New York Times, June 22, 2011; Randal Ar- Maximino Ortiz, Víctor Hernandez Barron, Augustin established the latter entity in March chibold, “Politics Enables Mexican Fugitive To Defang Hernandez Martinez, Juan Carlos Tovar, Pedro Cer- 2011 as an alternative vehicle for Law,” New York Times, December 15, 2010; “Falling King- vantes Marquez, Ramiro Rangel and Samuel Flores (all achieving “public justice,” and the pins, Rising Violence,” Economist, December 18, 2010; arrested). “A Leader of Mexico’s Caballeros Templarios Arrested,” 10 George Grayson, “Los Zetas: The Ruthless Army Captured in Mexico,” al-Jazira, October 17, 2011. Borderland Beat, November 10, 2011; “Mexico Police Raid Spawned by a Mexican Drug Cartel,” Foreign Policy 11 “Mexico Security Memo: A Zetas Challenge to the ‘La Familia Drug Cartel,’ Killing 11,” BBC News, May 28, Research Institute, May 2008; Oscar Becerra, “A to Z of Mexican Government,” Stratfor, December 8, 2011. 2001. Crime: Mexico’s Zetas Expand Operations,” Jane’s Intel- 12 Oscar Becerra, “Family Business: La Familia: Mexi- 14 In 2009, Forbes included Guzman on its list of the ligence Review, January 27, 2009; Burton and Meiners; co’s Most Violent Criminals,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, world’s richest men (701 out of 739). Sullivan and Elkus; Tuckman; “Mexican Police Capture October 7, 2009; George Grayson, “La Familia: Another 15 Simental’s trademark was to boil rivals and enemies Regional Leader of Violent Drug Cartel,” Latin American Deadly Mexican Syndicate,” Foreign Policy Research In- in barrels of lye–a practice that became known as pozole Herald Tribune, June 6, 2011; “‘Zetas Drug-Cartel Boss’ stitute, February 2009. after the name for Mexican stew.

6 january 2012 . Vol 5. Issue 1 and Ovidio Limon Sanchez (who September. Another senior lieutenant, through Mexico to the United States by managed Sinaloan cocaine movements Oscar Osvaldo Garcia Montoya (“El using a street gang, Barrio Azteca, to bound for the American market), Compayito”), was detained in April coordinate sales, distribution and, when it remains the most powerful and 2011.19 His capture has been described as necessary, contract killings in cities influential DTO in Mexico.16 The group eliminating the “last Beltran-Leyva link such as Austin, Dallas and El Paso.24 has been battling for control of two of any importance.”20 This would appear According to some American sources, key trafficking routes that respectively to be an overstatement. The group has these activities earned the organization abut New Mexico and California, each forged alliances of convenience with of which it is now thought to largely the Carrillo Fuentes Syndicate and the “It is now a common dominate: one in Cuidad Juarez, where Los Zetas and continues to engage the it has been competing with the Carrillo Sinaloans for control of territory in practice for cartels to assist Fuentes Syndicate, Beltran Leyva Cuidad Juarez.21 It also retains at least migrants looking to enter Organization—both former allies—and a residual leadership structure that is the Los Zetas; and one in Tijuana, which overseen by Hector, one of the original the United States illegally is also contested by the Arellano Felix founding brothers. on condition that they Organization.17 Carrillo Fuentes Syndicate (Juarez Cartel) carry cocaine packs with The Beltran Leyva Organization The Carrillo Fuentes Syndicate is based them.” The Beltran Leyva Organization was in the northern city of Cuidad Juarez in largely the product of four brothers Chihuahua State, just across the border who were born in the state of Sinaloa in from El Paso, Texas. The organization the 1960s: Marcus Arturo (“El Barbas”), is led by Vincente Carrillo Fuentes (“El as much as $200 million per week.25 Carlos (“El jefe de jefes”), Alfredo (“El Viceroy”),22 has a standing alliance Although the syndicate’s control over Mochomo”) and Hector (“El Ingeniero”). with the Beltran Leyva Organization trafficking routes through Chihuahua The quartet was originally closely allied and is similarly fighting the Sinaloans has been significantly dented by with the Sinaloa Cartel, but broke with for control of Juarez. It maintains a Sinaloan competition, it continues to the group in 2008 after Alfredo was highly brutal enforcement wing known be an important player in the overall arrested following an alleged Sinaloan as La Linea that is composed of corrupt Mexican drug scene. The group’s betrayal. Initially, the organization police officers. The unit’s long-time members also retain a reputation for proved capable of resisting competition commander, Jose Antonio Acosta extreme violence; for example, they from its parent syndicate as well as Hernandez (“El Diego”), was captured were implicated in the infamous Cuidad infiltrating counternarcotic units and in August 2011. He has admitted to Juarez serial-murder site that was first assassinating some of their most senior personally ordering 1,500 killings and reported in 2004 and which has since officers.18 The Beltrans’ influence, is also thought to be the mastermind been dubbed the “House of Death.”26 however, has diminished due to the loss behind the 2010 killings of a U.S. of some of its most prominent members. Consulate employee, her husband and Arellano Felix Organization (Tijuana Cartel) The first major setback occurred in another worker at the U.S. mission The Arellano Felix Organization, which December 2009 when its leader at the in Cuidad Juarez.23 At its height, operates primarily in the state of Baja time, Arturo, was killed. This was the Carrillo Fuentes Syndicate was California but also has an important followed by a string of apprehensions assumed to be responsible for about presence in Zacatecas and Sinaloa, was in 2010 that netted Carlos Beltran in half of all the illegal drugs that pass at one time one of the largest and most January, Gerardo Alvarez-Vasquez (“El violent DTOs in Mexico. It was initially Indio”) in April, Edgar Valdez Villarreal 19 “Mexico Captures Brother of Slain Cartel Boss,” New organized around five brothers and four (“La Barbie”) in August and Sergio York Times, January 3, 2010; “Alleged Top Drug Traffick- sisters who inherited the organization Villarreal Barragan (“El Grande”) in er Caught Near Mexico City,” USA Today, April 22, 2010; from Miguel Angel Felix Gallardo after Randall Archibold, “Mexican Police Arrest Man Believed he was arrested in 1989 for complicity in 16 The U.S. intelligence community has gone further, de- to Be Drug Kingpin,” New York Times, August 31, 2010; the murder of a U.S. Drug Enforcement 27 scribing the cartel as the “most powerful drug trafficking “Mexico Arrests Suspected Drug Kingpin,” BBC News, Administration (DEA) official. Four of organization in the world.” September 12, 2011; “Falling Kingpins, Rising Violence”; 17 Burton and Meiners; Tuckman; Richard Marosi and “Mexico Arrests Trafficker Accused of 900 Murders,” 24 “Barrio Azteca Gang Behind Juarez Drug Violence,” Ken Ellingwood, “Mexican Drug Lord Teodoro Garcia Daily Telegraph, August 12, 2011. Drug Crime, April 12, 2010; Marc Lacey and Ginger Simental, Known for his Savagery, is Captured,” Los An- 20 Angelo Velasco, “Cae el líder de La Mano con Ojas; lo Thompson, “Drug Slayings in Mexico Rock U.S. Con- geles Times, January 13, 2010; Marc Lacey, “Top Mexican vinculan con 600 homicidos,” Excelsior, August 12, 2011. sulate,” New York Times, March 14, 2010; Marc Lacey, Drug Suspect Arrested,” International Herald Tribune, 21 See, for instance, Samuel Logan, “Beltran Leyvas “Raids Aim to Find Killers of 3 in Mexico,” New York January 14, 2011; “Mexico Arrests High-Ranking Sinaloa Down But Not Out,” ISN Security Watch, January 8, Times, March 18, 2010. Cartel Operator,” Latin American Herald Tribune, Novem- 2010. 25 Howard La Franchi, “A Look Inside a Giant Drug ber 14, 2011; “US Intelligence Says Sinaloa Cartel Has 22 The United States has posted a $5 million reward for Cartel,” Christian Science Monitor, December 6, 1999. Won the Battle for Cuidad Juarez Drug Routes,” CNS. information leading to the arrest or conviction of Vin- 26 David Rose, “House of Death,” Observer, December 3, com, April 9, 2010. cente Carrillo Fuentes. 2006; Alfredo Corchado, “‘Drug Wars’ Long Shadow,” 18 One of the most senior members killed by the Beltrans 23 “Mexican Drug Cartel Enforcer Who ‘Ordered’ 1500 Dallas Morning News, December 13, 2008; Radley Balko, was Edgar Millan Gomez–the Federal Police director. He Killings is Captured After US Tip Off,” Mail Online, Au- “The House of Death,” Reason, September 30, 2008. was assassinated in May 2008. gust 1, 2011. 27 Tim Steller, “Mexican Drug Runners May Have Used

7 january 2012 . Vol 5. Issue 1 the main siblings as well as other senior the New Federation in February 2010; lieutenants have since been arrested and a loose pattern of shifting coalitions Bioterrorism: Still a Threat or killed, including Benjamin Arellano among the remaining four syndicates. to the United States Felix (the cartel’s principal drug lord), This alliance structure appears to have Eduardo Arellano Felix, Ramon Eduardo some longevity built into it, given bonds By Leonard A. Cole Arellano Felix, Francisco Javier of beneficial business relationships Arellano Felix, Francisco Sillas Rocha and, just as importantly, vendettas and the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 and Armado Villareal Heredia.28 These unpaid blood debts. attacks prompted reflections on the losses have dramatically curtailed the current status of the terrorism threat organization’s penetration and reach, Given ongoing demand for cocaine in to the United States. One aspect of with competitors such as the Sinaloans North America and Western Europe, an assessment—the threat posed by increasingly muscling into its home turf pervasive corruption in Mexico and the biological weapons—is especially and taking control over some of its key enormous profits that can be made from challenging because of the unique smuggling routes.29 That said, the cartel the illegal drug trade, the problems character of these weapons. A prime continues to operate in Baja California, associated with DTO competition and distinction is the fact that exposure to retains a presence, albeit a declining violence south of the U.S. border are minute quantities of a biological agent one, in 15 other states and still controls unlikely to disappear anytime soon. may go unnoticed, yet ultimately be important street-level trafficking cells While alliances may fluctuate—and the cause of disease and death. The in the United States. The current leader despite the loss of several prominent incubation period of a microbial agent is thought to be Luis Fernando Sanchez, narco “kingpins”—there is no indication can be days or weeks; unlike a bombing, the nephew of Enedina Arellano Felix that any of the seven organizations are knifing, or chemical dispersion, a (one of the sisters who originally about to collapse, disband or voluntarily bioattack might not be recognized inherited the cartel from Gallardo).30 He cease their activity. This has serious until long after the agent’s release. reportedly works closely with Edgardo implications for the United States, Accordingly, bioterrorism poses Leyva Escandon, a trained sniper who which remains the world’s number one distinctive challenges for preparedness, has been tied to the assassinations of consumer of Andean-sourced narcotics. protection, and response. several drug kingpins and who is also wanted on weapons and ammunition Thus far, the United States has tended The use of a pathogen for hostile smuggling charges. The United States to emphasize supply interdiction in its purposes became a consuming concern has posted rewards of $2 million apiece overall counternarcotics efforts. This to the American people soon after 9/11. for information leading to the arrests or policy has clearly not worked, which About a half-dozen letters containing convictions of the two men.31 is reflected by the endemic instability anthrax spores were mailed to that now besets Mexico—the corridor journalists and politicians beginning Conclusion for roughly 95% of the cocaine flowing one week after the jetliner attacks. Four These seven organizations can out of Colombia, Bolivia and Peru. letters with spores and threat messages essentially be split into two main In looking to the future, it is evident eventually were recovered. All were competing blocs: the Sinaloa Cartel, that the United States will need to postmarked Trenton, New Jersey, which the Gulf Cartel and La Familia, which develop a more balanced approach that meant that they had been processed at formed a cooperative union known as both bolsters support to the Calderon the postal distribution center in nearby government while simultaneously Hamilton. Two letters were postmarked C-130 from Arizona,” Arizona Daily Star, April 15, 1998. addressing the demand-side—that is, the September 18, one addressed to Tom 28 The fifth Felix brother, Francisco Rafeel, was arrested American side—of the drug equation. Brokaw at NBC-TV and another to the in 1993 and after serving a 10-year sentence was extra- editor of the New York Post. The other two dited to the United States; he was released from prison Dr. Peter Chalk is a Senior Policy Analyst letters were stamped October 9 and in El Paso on February 2, 2008 and returned to Cuidad with the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, addressed to Senators Thomas Daschle Juarez. There are two other brothers, Carlos Alberto and California. He has worked on a range of and Patrick Leahy. Luis Fernando, neither of whom are wanted by the au- projects examining transnational security thorities. threats in Latin America, Africa and Asia. As people became infected in September, 29 See, for instance, Elizabeth Diaz, “Analysis: Mexico’s He is Associate Editor of Studies in Conflict October and November, local responses Tijuana Cartel Weaker as Ex-Boss Comes Home,” Reu- and Terrorism—one of the foremost journals revealed gaps in preparedness for a ters, March 14, 2008; Tuckman; “Mexican Drug Lord Is in the international security field—and biological attack. For example, the first Arrested,” Reuters, October 26, 2008; “Mexico Seizes serves as an Adjunct Professor with the confirmation of an anthrax case was Top Drug Suspect,” BBC News, October 27, 2008. Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, on October 4, more than two weeks 30 “New Arellano Félix Cartel Leaders,” Justice In Mex- California. after the initial letters were mailed. ico Project, December 4, 2010; “Mexico Seizes Top Drug Retrospective assessments later Suspect.” Enedina is also suspected of playing a role in indicated that by then nine people had the cartel’s current activities and as a businesswoman has already contracted the disease. Their allegedly facilitated its money laundering operations. illness previously had been misidentified 31 “Edgardo Leyva Escandon,” NarcoticNews.com, ac- because of faulty diagnoses or erroneous 1 cessed December 13, 2011; Anna Cearley, “DEA Man laboratory tests. Seeking Man Linked to Arellano Boat,” San Diego Tri- bune, September 6, 2006. 1 Leonard A. Cole, The Anthrax Letters: A Bioterrorism

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In the end, at least 22 people had become 2010 on efforts to address several of dual-track benefits has been reflected infected, five of whom died. Meanwhile, its previous recommendations. The in past budgets as well. A report in scores of buildings were belatedly found administration’s failure to “enhance Nature magazine indicated that of the to be contaminated with spores that had the nation’s capabilities for rapid $60 billion spent on biodefense in the leaked from the letters. At least 30,000 response to prevent biological attacks past decade, only about $12 billion went people who were deemed at risk required from inflicting mass casualties” merited for programs solely concerned with prophylactic antibiotics.2 Millions more a grade of “F” (meaning that no action biodefense.9 Therefore, non-biodefense were fearful, many of them anxious was taken on this recommendation). research seems to have benefited about opening their own mail. Almost as bad was the “D+” given for substantially from biodefense projects. continuing inadequate oversight of Since the anthrax attacks, the U.S. high-containment laboratories.6 Fiscal woes in recent years have in fact government has spent about $60 billion resulted in reduced resources for public on biodefense. A large portion of those Reasonable arguments can be made health and related programs. Economic dollars has gone to biodefense research to support varied views about these pressure threatens to shrink biodefense under the auspices of the National issues, and all conclusions bear a degree funding as it does funding for much else Institute of Allergy and Infectious of subjectivity. Yet an assessment of in the federal budget; however, it is not Diseases (NIAID). The NIAID budget several broad critical contentions can clear now, nor was it in the past, if fewer for biodefense research has grown offer clarification. The criticisms are dollars for biodefense would necessarily from $200 million in 2001 to an annual largely expressed in the form of five translate into more for public health, average of $1.6 billion since 2004. contentions. basic research, or any other health- related programs. As a result, two central questions have Contention #1: Funding for biodefense has emerged after 10 years of efforts. Is the meant fewer dollars for other deserving areas Contention #2: The growing number of United States safer from a bioattack now such as public health infrastructure and basic facilities for research on select agents than at the time of the anthrax attacks? science research. (specified pathogens and toxins) has Has the spending been worth it? In 2005, 758 microbiologists signed a heightened chances of an accidental release. letter to Elias Zerhouni, then director of Statistics alone make this assertion Key Questions, Discrepant Answers the National Institutes of Health (NIH), unassailable. The chances of something Opinions on these questions differ. objecting to the diversion of funds from going wrong in any enterprise, assuming While concerned about the danger of public health research to biodefense no change in operational security, backsliding, the authors of an article projects. Zerhouni, joined by NIAID increase with the size of the enterprise. in Politico now felt “reassured about our Director Anthony Fauci, rejected the As the number of research facilities preparedness” for a biological attack.3 A t letter’s premise of “diversion.” An increases, so does the chance of an the same time, an opposing assessment assessment of disputed interpretations accident. A continuing weakness is the was emblazoned in the title of a New York suggested that spending on biodefense lack of clarity about the number of high Times Magazine cover story: “Ten Years benefited non-biodefense research security laboratories. After the Anthrax Attacks, We Are Still as well, but the numbers were so Not Ready.”4 A review of biodefense “convoluted” that a clear determination In 1983, the Centers for Disease Control efforts during the past 10 years in Science was elusive.7 and Prevention (CDC) designated four magazine blandly acknowledged the levels of safety for laboratory work with obvious: “debate continues over how An analysis of the biodefense budget for biological agents. A Biosafety Level-1 much safer the country is.”5 fiscal year 2012 indicates that only 10% (BSL-1) laboratory allows for work on of the proposed $6.4 billion is dedicated relatively innocuous agents and a BSL- The congressionally chartered exclusively to civilian biodefense. 4 laboratory on the most dangerous. Commission on the Prevention The other 90% is for projects with The two highest containment facilities, of Weapons of Mass Destruction both biodefense and non-biodefense BSL-3 and BSL-4, require special Proliferation and Terrorism (WMD implications. The non-biodefense goals, security measures including restricted Commission) issued a report card in according to analysts Crystal Franco access, negative pressure to prevent and Tara Kirk Sell, include “advancing air from flowing out of the room, and Expert Investigates the Attacks That Shocked America (New other areas of science, public health, protective outerwear for operators. York: Skyhorse Publications, 2009). healthcare, national security, or BSL-4 laboratories require additional 8 2 Daniel B. Jernigan, Pratima L. Raghunathan, Beth P. international security.” This tilt toward safeguards such as entry through Bell et al., “Investigation of Bioterrorism-Related An- multiple air-locked rooms and positive thrax, United States, 2001: Epidemiologic Findings,” 6 Bob Graham and Jim Talent, “Prevention of WMD pressure outerwear with a segregated Emerging Infectious Diseases 8:10 (2002). Proliferation and Terrorism Report Card,” Commission air supply. 3 Jonathan Moreno and Tom Daschle, “Anthrax Attacks: on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Pro- 10 Years Later,” Politico, October 15, 2011. liferation and Terrorism, January 2010. 4 Wil S. Hilton, “Ten Years After the Anthrax Attacks, 7 Jocelyn Kaiser, “Détente Declared on NIH Biodefense We Are Still Not Ready,” New York Times Magazine, Oc- Funding,” Science 308:5724 (2005). tober 30, 2011. 8 Crystal Franco and Tara Kirk Sell, “Federal Agency 5 Jocelyn Kaiser, “Taking Stock of the Biodefense Boom,” Biodefense Funding, FY2011-FY2012,” Biosecurity and 9 Erika Check Hayden, “Biodefense Since 9/11: the Price Science 333:6047 (2011). Bioterrorism 9:2 (2011). of Protection,” Nature 477:150-152 (2011).

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A BSL-4 laboratory is required for No national authority is now on self-reporting.14 In 2011, a mental work on agents that cause lethal empowered to mandate a single system health review panel concluded that disease for which there is little or no of counting or enforce standardization "Dr. Ivins had a significant and lengthy treatment (for example, smallpox and for laboratory security. This lapse is history of psychological disturbance hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola and magnified by the fact that even the and diagnosable mental illness at the Marburg). At present, there are 15 such lowest estimated number of BSL-3 time he began working for USAMRIID U.S. facilities planned or in operation, laboratories (200) represents a 10- in 1980."15 triple the number operating in 2001.10 fold increase in the past 10 years, and Other dangerous agents, including the that safety precautions at some BSL- The Ivins case has raised concerns that 3 facilities are less rigorous than at other troubled or nefarious individuals others. might be working in U.S. laboratories. “Although these actions A recent government-sponsored forum would be welcomed, Contention #3: The growing number of on biosecurity called for periodic investigators with knowledge about select behavioral evaluations of personnel determining if a laboratory, agents has increased the chances that an with access to select agents that include or the country, is secure unsavory scientist could launch a bioattack. drug testing, searches for criminal Along with more high containment history, and completion by selectees of ‘enough’ will always be facilities has come more scientists who a security questionnaire.16 debatable. Security can handle select agents. Concern about dangerous individuals among them Even while acknowledging the never be absolute insofar was heightened in 2008 when the FBI necessity of security measures, the as human enterprises named Bruce Ivins as the perpetrator right to privacy and freedom of of the 2001 anthrax attacks. Ivins was scientific inquiry must be respected are inevitably subject to a veteran scientist who for decades to the extent possible. In any case, accidents, miscalculation, had worked on anthrax at the U.S. behavioral monitoring can never Army Medical Research Institute for provide absolute protection against the and incomplete Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) in acts of a clever miscreant. information.” Fort Detrick, Maryland. Before charges could be brought he committed suicide, Contention #4: Money for biodefense has been so his guilt or innocence could never misapplied or otherwise failed to produce be established in a court of law. Still, desired results. bacteria that cause anthrax and plague, evidence of his aberrational behavior, Project BioShield was established by are worked on in BSL-3 laboratories. including alcoholism, depression, congress in 2004 to acquire medical The number of these laboratories has and self-described bouts of paranoia, countermeasures against biological, skyrocketed since 2001, although the evidently went unnoticed by his chemical, and radiological agents. The actual figures are uncertain. superiors. 10-year, $5.6-billion program provided for stockpiling and distributing While an estimated 20 BSL-3 facilities The Ivins case highlighted questions vaccines and other drugs that have not were operating before the anthrax about the screening of workers with necessarily been tested for efficacy on attacks, in the decade since the number ready access to select agents. The humans. (Exposing people to pathogens has grown to between 200 and an number of those workers just prior to such as smallpox or anthrax to test a astonishing 1,400 or more.11 The huge the anthrax attacks has been estimated drug would be unethical.) discrepancy is attributable in part to at about 700. By 2008, however, varied methods of calculation. Some the figure had climbed to more than The first BioShield contract, for $877 assessments have counted all BSL- 14,000.12 As some have suggested, the million, was awarded in 2004 for 3 laboratories in an institution as a greater numbers mean that “the odds the production of a new anthrax single BSL-3 facility, while others have of one of them turning out to be a bad vaccine. The recipient, VaxGen, a designated each laboratory as a separate apple has increased.”13 Ironically, Ivins small California biotech company, entity. Furthermore, some laboratories was not a newly minted investigator, had not previously made a successful with a BSL-3 designation may lack but a long-respected figure in the army’s vaccine or drug; in fact, the year before, safety features found in others, such biodefense program. the company’s planned HIV/AIDS as double doors and a requirement that two persons must be present. Days after Ivins’ death, a USAMRIID 14 Eric Lichtblau and Eric Lipton, “Judge Says F.B.I. Can spokesperson acknowledged that Examine Library Computers That Scientist Used Last officials may have been unaware of his Month,” New York Times, August 7, 2008. problems because they relied in part 15 David Dishneau, “Clues Were Missed in Anthrax 10 Keith Rhodes, “Testimony before the House Sub- Case, Panel Says,” Associated Press, March 24, 2011. committee on Oversight and Investigations,” October 4, 16 Edward You, “Addressing Biosecurity: Roles and Re- 2007. 12 Gigi Kwik Gronvall, “Improving the Select Agent Pro- sponsibilities of the Science and Security Communities,” 11 Hugh Auchincloss, “Testimony before the House Sub- gram,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, October 29, 2008. Select Agent Program Workshop, U.S. Departments of committee on Oversight and Investigations,” October 4, 13 Marcus Stern, “Biodefense Program Poses Its Own Agriculture and Health and Human Services, University 2007. Risks,” ProPublica, December 5, 2008. of Tennessee, November 16, 2011.

10 january 2012 . Vol 5. Issue 1 vaccine had proved ineffective and Contention #5: The threat of bioterrorism chilling conclusion found that a weapon was abandoned. By the end of 2006, has been exaggerated and does not warrant of mass destruction will probably be its anthrax program was also failing. expanded support. used in a terrorist attack within five After trial deadlines went unmet A 2011 assessment in Science magazine years, and that weapon will likely be a because of the vaccine’s instability, of the “biodefense boom” noted that biological agent.22 Despite skepticism the Department of Health and Human critics questioned its justification, by some about the commission’s Services terminated the contract.17 The “especially because no new attacks have calculation, it nonetheless highlighted company received little of the BioShield occurred.”19 If the validity of a threat the particular concern afforded to the allocation, although it had already been depends primarily on when it was last biological threat. given nearly $100 million from the NIH actualized, the threat of a nuclear attack for the anthrax project. would be deemed negligible. After all, The commission’s conclusion was the last (and only) use of a nuclear influenced by the low cost of the 2001 What went wrong? At the outset, critics weapon occurred nearly 70 years ago anthrax attacks, the ease with which questioned whether any small company they were launched (via the mail), the could quickly produce large quantities of “Descriptions of possible fact that al-Qa`ida and other terrorist vaccine—75 million doses—as stipulated groups have sought to develop in the contract. Further, VaxGen’s lack bioterrorism scenarios biological weapons, and the rapid of success in the past could hardly have are often hyperbolic, advances in biotechnology that could been a recommendation for a big contract be used to develop new and more for a new vaccine. The government’s but they contain enough deadly biological weapons. haste to show progress soon after the substance to warrant establishment of BioShield led it to take In disputing the commission’s a big risk. Beyond the loss of time and thoughtful programs for judgments, a group of scientists at money, the VaxGen failure was a public preparedness.” the Center for Arms Control and embarrassment. It became a symbol of Non-Proliferation contended that the ineptness early in the new program. commission’s threat assessments were speculative and relied on unjustified Other biosecurity programs have also when the United States dropped two assumptions.23 Yet the tide of concern drawn criticism, including a $534 billion atomic bombs on Japan to end World about bioterrorism remains high, as surveillance project called BioWatch. War II. Iran’s current quest for nuclear reflected in U.S. funding levels and This program included the placement arms, and the West’s alarmed reaction, statements of support by numerous of air samplers for detection of anthrax demonstrates the thinness of the “when- government officials. spores and other agents in more than 30 last-used” prescription. major U.S. cities. A committee convened Descriptions of possible bioterrorism by the National Academy of Sciences Yet even disregarding recency of scenarios are often hyperbolic, but they concluded in 2010 that the program occurrence, alleged exaggeration of the contain enough substance to warrant was faced with “serious technical and biothreat remains an issue. William thoughtful programs for preparedness. operational challenges.” Others flatly Clark, a professor and chair emeritus of criticized its funding as wasted.18 immunology at UCLA, has written that: Conclusion “It is almost inconceivable that any Despite missteps, the U.S. biodefense Despite the criticisms, biodefense terrorist organization we know of [could effort has resulted in substantial spending has also brought benefits. It develop] a bioweapon capable of causing advances in understanding the has advanced understanding of how mass casualties on American soil.”20 biothreat, development and placement the immune system responds to viral Others have stated, more cynically, of new detection technologies, and vectors that are used to target cells. that the threat of bioterrorism “has expanded provision of countermeasures. It helped fund reconstruction of the been systematically and deliberately The increased number of high security Spanish flu virus that killed tens of exaggerated.”21 laboratories and their additional millions in 1918-1919. It has funded personnel do pose potential risks. the Strategic National Stockpile, which The WMD Commission holds a contrary Still, claims that these expansions within hours could provide supplies to view. After interviewing more than have made the United States less safe a site of terrorism or disaster anywhere 250 government officials and non- overall seem overwrought. Moreover, in the United States. (The stockpile governmental experts, the commission recent measures to address security includes antibiotics, vaccines, and other issued a report in December 2008. Its deficiencies, although belated, have materials to cope with terrorist or other helped mitigate them. disaster events.) 19 Kaiser, “Taking Stock of the Biodefense Boom.” 20 “Is the Threat of Bioterrorism Exaggerated?” Home- land Security Newswire, May 23, 2008. 22 Bob Graham and Jim Talent, World At Risk, The Report 21 Ben Bain and Joseph Cirincione, “Exaggerating the of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass De- 17 Eric Lipton, “U.S. Cancels Order for 75 Million Doses Threat of Bioterrorism,” Carnegie Endowment for In- struction Proliferation and Terrorism (New York: Vintage of Anthrax Vaccine,” New York Times, December 20, ternational Peace, March 16, 2006; Milton Leitenberg, Books, 2008). 2006. “Bioterrorism, Hyped,” Los Angeles Times, February 17, 23 “Biological Threats: A Matter of Balance,” The Center 18 Hayden. 2006. for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, 2009.

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Enactment of pending legislation to violence. It also raises concerns for implement recommendations of the Radicalization Processes U.S. and NATO transition plans, which WMD Commission would further in Afghanistan could be undermined by spreading rationalize the nation’s biosecurity. The radicalization, and highlights future Weapons of Mass Destruction Prevention By Marisa L. Porges threats to stability within Afghan civil and Preparedness Act of 2009 would society. heighten laboratory security, provide in april 2011, a series of violent protests for establishing uniform standards for erupted in Afghanistan that reflected Grievances handling select agents, and designate public anger over news of an American While there is insufficient evidence to a single coordinator to oversee select preacher burning a Qur’an. The United indicate that widespread radicalization agent programs. Nations compound in normally peaceful is occurring in Afghanistan, large Mazar-i-Sharif, north of Kabul, was segments of Afghan society remain Although these actions would be attacked, and seven foreigners were frustrated by physical insecurity, welcomed, determining if a laboratory, killed.1 Riots also struck Kandahar, government corruption, poverty and or the country, is secure “enough” the second largest city in Afghanistan, growing social inequality. These will always be debatable. Security can with more than 100 protesters shot frustrations are easily manipulated never be absolute insofar as human and at least a dozen killed.2 While by radical groups and make many enterprises are inevitably subject many demonstrators were reportedly Afghans susceptible to recruitment and to accidents, miscalculation, and just expressing dismay at the Qur’an radicalization, particularly when their incomplete information. burning, Afghan officials stressed that discontent is aggravated by mistrust Taliban and Hizb-i-Islami played a of the government or the international To return to the two questions posed role as well; in their view, these radical community. earlier about whether the United States groups “misus[ed]” the emotions of is safer from a bioattack, and whether locals to spark the violence.3 Regardless, Insecurity remains the core grievance the spending has been worth it: the the riots surprised many Afghan across the country. Although nearly answer to the first question is yes, observers and international officials, half of the Afghans surveyed in the although with gaps yet to be filled; as and raised significant questions about 2011 Asia Foundation poll felt the for the second question, the results of the general state of the Afghan people. country was moving in the right research cannot be certain in advance, Were societal tensions and malcontent, direction, 56% of respondents still and expecting every dollar to produce a which normally simmered just under feared for their personal safety. favorable result is unrealistic. Several the surface, starting to bubble over? Nearly 40% identified insecurity— investments in biosecurity have clearly Were these riots an early indication that to include “attacks, violence, and provided benefits. Yet millions of radicalization was becoming widespread terrorism”—as the country’s biggest dollars have undeniably been wasted in Afghan civil society? problem.5 Unemployment, corruption, on duplicated or ill-chosen projects, a and poverty were likewise cited as condition that should be acknowledged Although mass radicalization does serious concerns. Recent studies by the and remediated. not currently appear to be a pervasive International Security Assistance Force threat in Afghanistan, the key drivers (ISAF) and Afghan entities echo these Dr. Leonard A. Cole teaches at Rutgers of radicalization—namely, common findings but stress that corruption— University and the University of Medicine grievances, extremist ideology, and ranging from bribery and nepotism to and Dentistry of New Jersey. He has written mechanisms for mobilization4—are the misuse of aid money and the abuse extensively on bioterrorism issues and on prevalent. This, in and of itself, is of government positions—was another terror medicine. cause for concern. An environment overwhelming source of anger and prone to enabling radicalization means frustration.6 Corruption was described that the Taliban and other militant as the identifying feature of government groups remain capable of recruiting services in multiple provinces, leading supporters, and that widening fissures to widespread mistrust in the Afghan within the Afghan political landscape government and its approach to the rule could more easily lead to future of law. Lack of access to social services and higher education, growing social 1 Laura King, “Fury in Afghanistan Over Koran-Burn- inequality, civilian casualties caused ing Continues as Protests Leave Nine Dead,” Los Angeles by international military forces, and Times, April 2, 2011. the destabilizing influence of Pakistan 2 Rod Nordland, “Taliban Exploit Tensions Seething in were also highlighted as the most Afghan Society,” New York Times, April 6, 2011. serious, unaddressed grievances of 3 “Afghan Police Criticised Over Mazar-e Sharif Vio- many Afghans. lence,” Institute for War and Peace Reporting, April 14, 2011. 4 For further explanation of how these three risk factors 5 “Afghanistan in 2011: A Survey of the People,” The were identified as the key drivers of radicalization, see Asia Foundation, November 2011. Peter Neumann, “Preventing Violent Radicalization in 6 Findings presented at workshop on radicalization in America,” Bipartisan Policy Center Report, June 2011. Afghan society, Kabul, Afghanistan, October 2011.

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These frustrations, in and of personal frustration at the government’s Taliban or insurgent recruitment, or a themselves, may not directly lead corrupt justice system into pro-Taliban secondary tool used to justify violence to violent extremism. Anecdotal sentiments.8 after becoming a combatant. Senator evidence, however, suggests that Mawlawi Arsala Rahmani, the Taliban’s they often provide the foundation Left unaddressed, these frustrations former minister of education, considers for radicalization in Afghanistan, create the framework within which it a core premise of today’s insurgent particularly for segments of society still transnational terrorist groups, the radicalization. As he explained in a under the Taliban’s influence. Stories of Taliban, and other domestic political recent interview, more than ever “it’s young Afghans joining the insurgency actors manipulate radical ideologies a war [based on] one ideology.”10 In are peppered with references to and ethnonational divisions to gain his view, religious rhetoric has become unaddressed grievances. Their popular support. Insurgent propaganda the starting point for joining Afghan- narratives include a combination of is effectively tailored toward this oriented radical groups. A slightly anger at real or perceived violations purpose, with a focus on misgivings different perspective is offered by a of their rights by international forces toward the Afghan government and its 2009 Department of International (for example, civilian casualties from perceived failure to provide governance Development (DFID) study, which and security. In this context, found that the religious radicalization of “Religious rhetoric is arguments about the benefits of Taliban many young combatants occurred once governance and justice find greater they joined the insurgency; training critically important to the appeal. Insurgent groups are thus able and indoctrination included religious radicalization process. It to rationalize violence in pursuit of messaging to frame their cause in terms their goals while also undermining of Islam.11 Other insurgents discussed is threaded throughout public support for the government or their actions—and the process that Taliban messaging and international community. led them to join the Taliban—without mentioning religion. In the end, multiple recruitment campaigns, Furthermore, decades of conflict factors can determine whether religion framing aforementioned and divisive domestic politics have is a deep ideological foundation, a left Afghan society polarized and tool to appeal to grievances, or merely central grievances within ethnically fractured. Aforementioned window dressing—the age and personal the context of Islamic law grievances exacerbate these problems experience of a combatant, and their of factionalized politics and provide the mechanisms of mobilization, among and manipulating local basis for further entrenchment of ethnic other reasons. frustrations and religious and political divisions within Afghan civil society. Ultimately, this raises Regardless, religious leaders and beliefs to support violent concerns for potential future political religious institutions remain pivotal action.” violence or, in the bleakest outlook, elements of the radicalization process foreshadows post-transition civil war. in Afghanistan. While approximately 3,325 mosques were registered with the Ideology Afghan government as of May 2011, its military operations, night raids, and Although individual stories of Ministry of Hajj and Religious Affairs U.S. or ISAF detention operations), motivation and recruitment in estimated that there may be as many as the failure of the Afghan government Afghanistan vary, religious narrative 60,000 unregistered mosques.12 These to tackle corruption or provide is considered “the key that unlocks religious institutions are central to security, justice and jobs, or those in the ability to use radical tactics.”9 As daily life for most Afghans and ensure combination with national pride and a result, religious rhetoric is critically that the “foundation of [public] debate a desire for revenge. In one example, important to the radicalization process. is religious issues.”13 Mullahs and Abdul Haqim, a 25-year-old Afghan It is threaded throughout Taliban imams are likewise essential; they often Taliban sub-district commander, messaging and recruitment campaigns, represent the primary religious educator described joining the insurgency as a framing aforementioned central and religious preacher, and also the process that started with resentment grievances within the context of Islamic community’s moral authority and most of coalition forces and the Afghan law and manipulating local frustrations trusted adviser. Despite recent efforts government, and culminated when and religious beliefs to support violent 7 American soldiers killed his cousin. action. 10 Personal interview, Mawlawi Arsala Rahmani, Ka- Another story illustrates how an Afghan bul, Afghanistan, November 2011. prisoner in Pol-e-Charki prison, the Since there is no singular path for 11 Sarah Ladbury and Cooperation for Peace and Unity large prison just east of Kabul where radicalization, questions remain (CPAU), Testing Hypothesis on Radicalisation in Afghani- the Taliban have long maintained a about the degree to which ideology stan (Kabul: Department for International Development, strong influence, was radicalized after is a primary motivational factor in 2009). fellow inmates helped him translate 12 Brief by senior Afghan official from Ministry of Hajj 8 Personal interview, family member of Afghan pris- and Religious Affairs, Kabul, Afghanistan, May 2011. 7 He said he was “burning with rage.” See Miles Amoore, oner, Kabul, Afghanistan, October 2011. 13 Brief by senior Afghan representative from Afghan “Defecting in the Name of Love,” Afghan Scene, March 9 Personal interview, ISAF official, Kabul, Afghanistan, Independent Human Rights Commission, Kabul, Af- 2011. November 2011. ghanistan, May 2011.

13 january 2012 . Vol 5. Issue 1 by the Afghan government to develop a recruitment.18 While many graduates the most powerful tools available. In unified curriculum for training mullahs, do not become radicalized, the potential this way, they also coerce Afghans to Afghan religious leaders espouse a impact is clear. withdraw support for coalition forces, variety of ideologies, and their levels with night letters being an oft-used of education vary widely—some having Mechanisms scare tactic.21 little higher education and many having Considering the process of radicalization received training in unmonitored from multiple perspectives helps Finally, it is critical to identify the Pakistani madrasas. highlight the key tools and methods primary target audiences of these used to radicalize Afghans, and draws efforts—particularly the youth, The role played by Pakistani madrasas attention to many common settings in former combatants, refugees and is significant for both mullahs and which radicalization occurs. It also prisoners who are most vulnerable to the wider Afghan public. Given demonstrates that, despite years of recruitment and radicalization. Many Afghanistan’s weak government-run insurgent recruitment and mobilization, Afghans 25-years-old or younger are religious education system and the many of these mechanisms have remained “disenfranchised, lack educational and well-developed and locally-respected unchanged over the recent past. employment opportunities, and rarely madrasa system in neighboring Pakistan, large segments of Afghans are schooled In Afghanistan, basic tools for “Another tool that has there.14 While figures are elusive, it is radicalization include night letters estimated that more than 1.5 million (shabnamah), inspirational songs and gained traction over children attend Pakistani madrasas, many poems (taranas), and CDs and DVDs the past year is cell of whom are Afghan citizens, including with sermons or battle reports. While thousands of Afghan refugees. Although magazines and print media are used phone and social media many of these madrasas do not teach sporadically, they are less effective technology. The Taliban radical rhetoric or serve as sources for for the illiterate Afghan audience; in militant recruitment or training,15 they many instances, this propaganda and have increasingly spread nonetheless have sizeable influence on internet-based messaging is actually their influence by sending the ideological aspect of Afghan-based aimed at an international audience.19 radicalization. In a 2010 assessment, Another tool that has gained traction propaganda that includes the U.S. Department of State asserted over the past year is cell phone and gruesome images to that “a small, yet influential number social media technology. The Taliban of madrassas have taught extremist have increasingly spread their influence countless Afghan cell doctrine in support of terrorism.”16 by sending propaganda that includes phones at once.” These madrasas include those at gruesome images to countless Afghan Shamshatoo, an Afghan refugee camp cell phones at once.20 Insurgents’ near Peshawar where followers of preference for using “spammed” notorious insurgent leader Gulbuddin SMS messages and images will likely participat[e] in [community] decision- Hekmatyar use “hard-sell recruitment” continue to increase as more young making,”22 making them especially tactics on Afghan schoolboys.17 The Afghans acquire smart phones. susceptible to grievance-oriented growing influence of conservative rhetoric exploiting societal unease Deobandi scholars in Kabul, Logar, Other methods for recruitment leverage and unhappiness with the government. Parwan and Wardak is also sourced to one of Afghan radical groups’ core Refugee camps near the Afghanistan- Pakistani madrasas and has made these advantages: they innately understand Pakistan border are also significant areas critical for insurgent support and their audience well and they often live sites for insurgent radicalization and work among them, which allows the and continue to supply low-level effective exploitation of social pressure combatants to the battlefield.23 Afghan 14 As of June 2010, the Pakistani government reported points. They therefore use local power prisoners are likewise a vulnerable that 19,104 madrasas were registered. For the sake of gen- structures and face-to-face contact to group, especially in prisons like Pol- eral comparison, there were 336 madrasas registered with recruit and radicalize through both e-Charki, where Taliban leaders have the Afghan government in 2007. Note that, in 2010, the persuasion and intimidation, two of maintained influence throughout Afghan Ministry of Education sponsored 48 madrasas the past decade. Understanding the specifically to counter the Taliban’s use of religious edu- 18 “The Insurgency in Afghanistan’s Heartland,” Inter- more precarious situations of these cation as a recruitment and radicalization tool. national Crisis Group, June 27, 2011. Three of Pakistan’s particular populations helps clarify 15 According to an International Crisis Group report most famous Deobandi madrasas–Darul Uloom Haqqa- how radicalization occurs in the from 2005, “A Pakistan government report issued in nia, Darul Uloom Hashemia and Imdadul Uloom-e Sh- 1995 found the existence of 746 extremist madrassas in aria–taught prominently insurgents from Wardak and 21 Personal interview, ISAF official, Kabul, Afghanistan, Punjab province alone; it is currently unclear how many Logar provinces. October 2011. madrassas in the region would be considered radical.” 19 Personal interview, ISAF official, Kabul, Afghanistan, 22 “Annual Project Report: Joint National Youth Pro- 16 In previous years, the U.S. Department of State word- October 2011. Also see “Taliban Propaganda: Winning gramme,” United Nations Development Programme for ed this assessment more strongly, asserting that “many” the War of Words?” International Crisis Group, July 24, Afghanistan, December 31, 2008. madrasas taught extremist doctrine. 2008. 23 “Recruitment and Radicalization of School-Aged 17 Ron Moreau, “The Jihadi High School,” Newsweek, 20 Spencer Ackerman, “Taliban Texts Terror to Afghan Youth by International Terrorist Groups,” Homeland April 24, 2011. Phones,” Wired, March 17, 2011. Security Institute, April 2009.

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Afghan context while also highlighting Individual Jihadist profiles of individual attackers and their pragmatic options for targeted relationships to extremist networks.5 counterradicalization efforts. Operations in Europe: Patterns and Challenges Due to the pressing security situation Next Steps for jihadist networks in the form of Despite the riots of last spring, there By Petter Nesser steadfast counterterrorism operations are few clear indications of widespread targeting international terrorist cells radicalization across Afghan society, right-wing, anti-islam terrorist Anders and militant training camps, al-Qa`ida although grievances, radical ideology, Behring Breivik—the lone gunman who strategists have for several years and readily available mobilization shot to death 69 people in Norway on called for local individual attacks by mechanisms are clearly pervasive. This July 22, 2011—wrote in his manifesto associates and sympathizers in the raises concerns that the Taliban and that lone acts of jihadist terrorism West. Although there has been an other militant groups will continue were a main source of his inspiration.1 increase in terrorist plots by individuals to exert influence and that there may Breivik’s writings on tactics are similar in European countries since 2008, small be violent outcomes to the political to theorizing on leaderless warfare cells composed of two or more people alienation and polarization growing by American white supremacists as continue to dominate the picture. within segments of Afghan society. well as by al-Qa`ida, mixing ideas from the two. Breivik’s own manifesto This article first offers an overview and As Afghan, U.S., and NATO officials echoed strategies, concepts and words brief characterizations of terrorist plots prepare for the forthcoming security found in the writings of Ku Klux Klan in Western Europe that appeared to transition, they should keep these member Louis Beam, al-Qa`ida in the involve jihadist individuals operating factors in mind. Priority should be Arabian Peninsula’s (AQAP) Inspire on their own, before discussing possible placed on stemming these drivers magazine and al-Qa`ida strategist explanations for why there have been of radicalization, countering the Abu Mus`ab al-Suri’s Global Islamic relatively few such attacks in the region. influence they have on the Afghan Resistance Call. 2 In conclusion, the article addresses the people and on plans for post- potential for an increase in lone acts transition stabilization efforts. There exists no definitional consensus of terrorism by jihadists in European In the near-term, efforts should regarding what constitutes a “lone countries. focus on combating mechanisms wolf,” and it is often highly difficult to for radicalization and supporting determine the extent to which individual Cases and Patterns Afghan groups most vulnerable to terrorists operate on their own. Keeping Since 2003, the author has maintained radicalization. A comprehensive, long- such reservations in mind, existing an open source chronology of jihadist term counterradicalization response research indicates that individual terrorist plots in Western Europe should also involve continuing to terrorists are found among a variety of between 1995 and 2011. The chronology address core, widespread grievances ideological camps including right- and contains incidents involving concrete such as insecurity and corruption— left-wing radicals, anarchists, Islamists, attack plans by suspects having some with the Afghan government in the separatists and various single-issue kind of connection to al-Qa`ida’s lead and the international community movements. Moreover, individual networks and ideology. Out of a total in a supporting role. Senior leaders, attackers appear to have constituted of 96 cases (based on the latest count), however, must be honest with the a relatively marginal phenomenon, approximately 10 cases were individual Afghan public that such grievance- mostly confined to the United States, operations, but none of the terrorists oriented strategies will take years, and many of them have been white seemed to be a “lone wolf” in a strict if not decades, and success is not racists.3 Studies have also pointed out sense.6 guaranteed. In the immediate how mentally disturbed people have future, the Afghan government and been overrepresented among loners Only one out of these 10 cases—the international community must support and that their operations typically so-called “shoe bombers’” attempts a frank discussion that acknowledges involved firearms, explosives and soft to destroy transatlantic airliners in these grievances and their inability civilian targets.4 Existing research has 2001—appears to have been run by to fix them immediately. This could indicated systematic variation in the al-Qa`ida’s central organization, but help release some tension in Afghan all seemed embedded in more or less civil society and make particularly 1 Andrew Berwick, “2083 A European Declaration of organized radical environments having aggrieved Afghans less susceptible to Independence,” 2011, p. 919, available at www.ansa.it/ radicalization. documents/1311520015929_2083+-+A+European+Declar 5 Raffaello Pantucci, “A Typology of Lone Wolves: Pre- ation+of+Independence.pdf. liminary Analysis of Lone Islamist Terrorists,” Inter- Marisa L. Porges is an Associate Fellow 2 Louis Beam, ”Leaderless Resistance,” Seditionist 12 national Centre for the Study of Radicalization, March at the International Centre for the Study (1992); Brynjar Lia, Architect of Global Jihad: The Life of Al- 2011. of Radicalisation and Political Violence Qaida Strategist Abu Mus’ab Al-Suri (New York: Colum- 6 Petter Nesser, “Chronology of Jihadism in Western (ICSR) in London, and previously served bia University Press, 2007). Also see issues 1-7 of Inspire, Europe 1994-2007: Planned, Prepared, and Executed as a counterterrorism policy adviser at available on various jihadist websites. Terrorist Attacks,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 3:10 the U.S. Departments of Defense and the 3 “Lone Wolf Terrorism,” Instituut voor Veiligheids- en (2008); Petter Nesser “Chronology of Jihadism in West- Treasury. She spent the spring and fall of Crisismanagement, July 6, 2007. ern Europe Update 2008-2010,” Norwegian Defence Re- 2011 conducting research in Afghanistan. 4 Ibid. search Establishment, December 20, 2010.

15 january 2012 . Vol 5. Issue 1 some kind of link to al-Qa`ida’s regional politicians and bombings of state militant organizations or extremist branches, networks of sympathizers institutions. Bouyeri was resourceful networks, three of them occurring in and the organization’s ideology. and ideologically committed. He Scandinavia. In January, a Danish- Furthermore, most plots involved meticulously planned a simple but Somali al-Shabab associate tried to people who were different from the highly effective operation, hoping to die murder cartoonist Kurt Westergaard average person, and the terrorists rarely as a martyr “guns blazing” in a shootout in his home with an axe. A spokesman managed to fully realize their attack with the police in a park close to the for the Somali group publicly hailed intentions. murder site.9 the attacker, but al-Shabab never took responsibility for the assassination The first well-known, one-man- During 2008, there were two serious attempt.14 In February, UK police operation prepared from European soil plots in the United Kingdom by mentally arrested the Bengali British Airways was the aforementioned “shoe bomber” unstable youth. The “emo-kid,” Andrew worker Rajib Karim who plotted to Richard Reid’s attempt to destroy Ibrahim, was inspired by Londonistan plant explosives onboard U.S.-bound American Airlines Flight 63 from Paris preacher Abu Hamza al-Masri and flights while maintaining contacts with to Miami in 2001. The plot appears fiercely enraged about injustices against AQAP-leader al-`Awlaqi via encrypted Muslims in Palestine and Iraq. He e-mails.15 In May, the female Pakistani prepared an HMTD-attack10 on a Bristol student Roshonara Choudhry stabbed “There exists no shopping center. Nicky Reilly, who the UK Member of Parliament Stephen definitional consensus suffered from Asperger’s syndrome, Timms, citing internet speeches by appears to have been radicalized al-`Awlaqi in Yemen as inspiration. regarding what constitutes online by militants in Pakistan before Choudhry was also inspired by a U.S.- a ‘lone wolf,’ and it is attempting but failing to bomb a local based website called RevolutionMuslim. cafe in Exeter.11 com, which called for assassinations often highly difficult to of British MPs voting in favor of determine the extent to In October 2009, a Libyan militant set the Iraq war. This website in turn off a nitrate-based explosive device at appears linked to the British extremist which individual terrorists the gate of an Italian Army barracks organization Islam4UK (formerly al- operate on their own.” in Milan, injuring a guard and himself. Muhajiroun), which would organize Several accomplices were arrested and support demonstrations outside the police confiscated more explosives court where Choudhry was tried.16 made from ammonium nitrate from While Choudhry staunchly insisted to have been hatched by al-Qa`ida’s among their belongings.12 Also in she acted alone, it may be too early program for external operations under October, Nigerian student Umar Farouk to definitively know whether she had the leadership of Khalid Shaykh Abdulmuttallab attempted to blow up a connections to extremist networks. Muhammad and involved another solo- plane from Amsterdam to Detroit with Then, in September, a one-legged operative named Sajjid Badat, who explosives hidden in his underwear. Chechen-Belgian and former boxer had second thoughts and hid his bomb Highly resourceful, Abdulmuttallab was injured himself while preparing a letter device under his bed instead.7 While allegedly associated with extremists in bomb to the Jyllands-Posten newspaper first perceived as a loner, it turned out the United Kingdom, a pupil of Yemeni- inside a Copenhagen hotel. First that Reid had an extensive network, American cleric Anwar al-`Awlaqi and believed to be a lone extremist, it receiving support from the Tunisian attended a terrorist training camp in later turned out that the Chechen was al-Qa`ida operative Nizar Trabelsi in Yemen.13 connected to al-Qa`ida-linked support Belgium and Pakistani militants based networks centered in the German town in Paris. Far from operating on his Throughout 2010, there were at least of Bremen.17 Furthermore, just before own, Reid was an integral part of al- five serious terrorist plots by individuals Christmas an Iraqi-Swede with alleged Qa`ida’s Europe networks and the 9/11 having obscure, yet significant ties to connections to UK-based extremists offensive.8 and perhaps al-Qa`ida in Iraq launched 9 In the author’s opinion, this was the jihadist loner at- a failed suicide operation on a main 18 The second solo-event was the murder tack in Europe showing most parallels to the Norway shopping street in Stockholm. of Theo Van Gogh in Amsterdam by attack of July 22, 2011. See Albert Benschop, “Chronicle Mohammed Bouyeri. The Dutch- of a Political Murder Foretold: Jihad in the Netherlands,” 14 “Jury Convicts Danish Cartoonist’s Attacker,” CNN, Moroccan prepared and executed the University of Amsterdam, 2005. February 3, 2011. attack by himself, but was part of an 10 HMTD stands for hexamethylene triperoxide di- 15 Vikram Dodd, “British Airways Worker Rajib Ka- extensive Netherlands-based network amine. rim Convicted of Terrorist Plot,” Guardian, February 28, with links to militants in Pakistan, 11 Duncan Gardham, “Terrorist Andrew Ibrahim was 2011. which planned assassinations of Dutch Turned in by the Muslim Community,” Telegraph, July 16 Vikram Dodd and David Batty, “Islamist Website 18, 2009; Duncan Gardham, “Men Who Groomed Exeter Urges Users to Target MPs,” Guardian, November 5, 7 Sean O’Neill and Daniel McGrory, The Suicide Factory, Bomber Still on the Loose,” Telegraph, January 31, 2009. 2011. Abu Hamza and the Finsbury Park Mosque (London: Harp- 12 Pantucci. 17 Sune Fischer, “Lors Doukaev tæt på terrornetværk,” er Perennial, 2006). 13 “From Fresh-Faced Schoolboy to Jihad Warrior: Un- Extra Bladet, October 25, 2010. 8 Pervez Musharraf, In the Line of Fire: A Memoir (New derpants Bomber Pictured in Al Qaeda Training Camp,” 18 “Doukaiev Met with German Extremists,” Danmarks York: Free Press, 2006). Daily Mail, October 13, 2011. Radio, May 23, 2011; Magnus Ranstorp, “Terrorist

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During 2011, the author registered Second, jihadists seem to prefer to disorder could contribute to the only one individual plot that seemed think of themselves in terms of a security awareness of a terrorist. The motivated by jihadism. In January, jama`a (group), tanzim (organization) attacker wrote at lengths about how to the young Kosovar Arid Uka shot or haraka (movement), and the process avoid detection and emphasized how and killed U.S. soldiers at Frankfurt of connecting with groups, ideologues non-Muslim terrorists may “enjoy more airport, allegedly after watching a and training camps appears to be an ‘invisibility’ than individuals who have feature movie depicting American important part of the radicalization Arabic/Asian appearance and customs” soldiers in Iraq raping a young girl. and socialization of committed “holy in today’s security regime.25 While investigations did not appear to warriors.”22 reveal ties to known organizations, Uka Finally, it is important to acknowledge was linked to extremists on social media Third, while leaderless terrorism works the fact that the jihadists’ typical modus sites and posted violent messages and well in theory, there are many practical operandi of employing secretive cells threatening statements online.19 obstacles.23 Lone operations tend to with fuzzy cell boundaries has many demand a lot in terms of individual advantages from the terrorists’ point In addition to the aforementioned skill and personal abilities (discipline, of view. For example, division of labor plots, there have been other incidents stamina, technical knowledge), and often between cell members and affiliates involving individuals on the fringes of mismatch occurs between qualifications may reduce the number of red flags extremist networks. and ambitions, resulting in failure. per persons in a cell. Moreover, cells Also, a one-man team faces multiple composed of multiple people working The Limits of Individualism in parallel on attack plans may simply The big picture is that despite al- “The big picture is that exhaust the capacity of security services, Qa`ida’s continued, intensifying as exemplified vividly by the Operation efforts to ignite leaderless jihad in the despite al-Qa`ida’s Crevice and 7/7 case complexes where West as exemplified by the writings continued, intensifying the gang of fertilizer plotters was of Abu Mus`ab al-Suri, AQAP’s Inspire disrupted while Mohammed Siddique magazine, and al-Sahab’s recent efforts to ignite leaderless Khan and Shehzad Tanweer fell off the production “la tukallafa illa nafsaka” jihad in the West, very radar.26 Furthermore, while groups and (“no one is assigned but yourself”), networks imply security risks, they very few jihadist terrorists in Europe few jihadist terrorists in also create far better opportunities for were true loners.20 On the contrary, Europe were true loners.” obtaining the needed professionalism investigations revealed that most of (training camps, countersurveillance, those believed to be acting alone turned bombmaking). out to be connected to others. There are multiple explanations for this. risks of being identified pursuing The Future Threat preparations (doing research, acquiring There have been few genuine loner First, research on serious plots in weapons, completing reconnaissance). attacks by jihadists in Europe, and most Europe has shown that the terrorists For example, laws and traditions seem plots by individuals have resulted in typically wanted to join “holy war” in to make extremists’ procurement of failure. Last summer’s attack in Oslo, Muslim countries as foreign fighters weapons more risky in Europe than however, demonstrated fully the damage rather than blowing themselves up at in the United States (reflected in the that can be done by an individual armed home. In many cases, the terrorists number of incidents involving lone with handguns or explosives. Breivik became involved in European plots only gunmen). operated consciously off the radar after connecting with jihadists abroad (connecting with right-wing radicals, who told them that they could be of Fourth, because lone acts of terrorism but discretely) and had highly unusual more use as international terrorists tend to be associated with people psychological traits, being diagnosed than guerrilla fighters.21 who are somewhat psychologically with paranoid schizophrenia by forensic maladjusted, some highly resourceful psychiatrists in November 2011.27 He and others not so much, they tend to innovatively combined elements from Awakening in Sweden?” CTC Sentinel 4:1 (2011). attract attention during preparatory past terrorist operations into one of the 24 19 Isabelle de Pommereau, “Frankfurt Gunman in US phases for that reason as well. The most gruesome attacks ever seen. In his Airmen Killing Kept Radical Company on Facebook,” 2011 Norway attacks, however, also manifesto, Breivik stated that Christian Science Monitor, March 4, 2011. demonstrated how a presumed mental 20 For a good example on al-Qa`ida’s media campaign solo-cell systems in combination calling for individual attacks, consult al-Sahab media: 22 Petter Nesser, “How Did Europe’s Global Jihadis Ob- with martyrdom is the most “You Are Held Responsible Only for Thyself,” part 1 tain Training for their Militant Causes?” Terrorism and and 2, English transcript posted on Shibkat al-Jihad al- Political Violence 20:2 (2008). 25 Berwick, p. 919. `Alimi, June 11, 2011. 23 Scott Stewart, “Cutting Through the Lone-Wolf 26 Rachel Briggs et al., “Anatomy of a Terrorist Attack: 21 Paul Cruickshank, “The Militant Pipeline Between Hype,” Stratfor, September 22, 2011. What the Coroner’s Inquest Revealed about the London the Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Region and the West,” 24 For a good discussion of the relationship between Bombings,” Royal United Services Institute, April 2011. New America Foundation, 2010; Mitchell D. Silber, “Al- lone wolf terrorism and psychological factors, see “Lone 27 Stine Barstad et al., “Behring Brevik har over en lang Qa`ida’s Center of Gravity in a Post-Bin Ladin World,” Wolf Terrorism,” Instituut voor Veiligheids- en Crisis- periode utviklet paranoid schizofreni,” Aftenposten, No- CTC Sentinel 4:11-12 (2011). management, July 6, 2007. vember 29, 2011.

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efficient and deadly form of Conclusion modern warfare. This strategy This quick glance at individual Al-Shabab’s Western was adapted by jihadist groups. jihadism in Europe suggests that it is Recruitment Strategy And now we will be using it as important to strike a balance between well. It is even more valuable to acknowledging the perils of the loner By Alexander Meleagrou-Hitchens us as we enjoy more “invisibility” threat on the one hand, while trying to than individuals who have Arabic/ understand the relationship between the deaths of Anwar al-`Awlaqi and Asian appearance and customs.28 loners and their social networks Samir Khan in September 2011 dealt a (physical and virtual) on the other. severe blow to al-Qa`ida in the Arabian To be sure, Islamist extremists in While European security services Peninsula’s (AQAP) ability to project Europe are under heavy pressure, have gained considerable control with jihadist propaganda to a Western and it would have been more difficult regards to physical networks (radical audience. Whether or not AQAP will for an individual of Arab appearance mosques, cells, training camps), continue to target Western Muslims to imitate the Norway attacks. For internet platforms such as social media for recruitment remains to be seen, example, buying fertilizer and guns and YouTube channels imply new and although another group is fast emerging would probably imply greater risks. poorly understood challenges. as a likely successor. Somalia’s al- There are numerous examples that Shabab militia has previously made such preparations led to disruption Another challenge is to heighten public some effort to direct its propaganda of jihadist cells and loners in the past. awareness about the lone terrorist toward Western Muslims, yet it is now Despite certain pressures and obstacles, threat so people report suspicious escalating such outreach. however, al-Qa`ida continues to call behavior.31 Moreover, there is a need for lone operations and Breivik has to adapt laws to ease the investigation Although al-Shabab’s priority is produced one of the most detailed and prosecution of individual terrorist the domestic insurgency currently manuals for this type of attack. The plotters. At the same time, it is waged against Somalia’s Transitional Norway attack has been discussed important not to exaggerate the threat Federal Government (TFG), there is on radical websites, and European and create a level of paranoia. Most of evidence that it is capitalizing on new security officials express concern that the terrorist acts initially believed to opportunities. Like AQAP, the group is the “manifesto” could be translated into involve a “lone wolf” turned out to be attracting English-speaking Muslims, multiple languages, adding to a growing connected to extremist networks and and it is now actively pursuing the body of terrorist manuals online.29 represented a strategic shift rather than recruitment of Western Muslims. Since a new phenomenon. 2009, Western security agencies have As for al-Qa`ida’s campaign to ignite made clear their concerns that al- loner attacks, it has been quite intense Petter Nesser is a research fellow Shabab could threaten Western cities, and has involved top leaders, strategists at the Norwegian Defence Research noting that large Somali populations in and theologians aiming to invoke the Establishment’s (FFI) Terrorism Research the United Kingdom and United States individual duty of punishing people Group. He is trained in the areas of Social could act as ideal recruitment pools. who insult the Prophet Muhammad. Science, Middle Eastern Studies and The January 2012 arrest of a former U.S. The cartoon affair has made terrorist Arabic. Mr. Nesser has conducted extensive Army soldier charged with trying to threats and risk of individual attacks research on jihadism, and he holds a join al-Shabab is just the latest incident more acute in Scandinavia than other master’s degree. His Ph.D. on terrorist cell of how its propaganda is affecting parts of Europe. The main reason for formation and behavior in Western Europe Westerners.1 this is that while different jihadist is currently under review at the University actors disagree on the legitimacy and of Oslo. By reviewing al-Shabab’s recent utility of launching violent operations propaganda output, this article will in Europe, the full spectrum of militant show how al-Shabab is recruiting organizations, most extremists and even Westerners, and why the group is seeing many mainstream Muslims support the results. religious verdict of the death penalty for cartoonists who insult the Prophet An Emerging Threat Muhammad.30 In September 2011, the head of the United Kingdom’s MI5, Jonathan

28 Berwick, p. 919. Evans, warned that the country faced 29 The Norwegian Police Intelligence Security Ser- an imminent terrorist threat from vice (PST) has expressed concerns about translations British residents trained by al-Shabab. of Breivik’s anti-Islam terrorist manual. See “Breiviks He stated that he was “concerned that manifest oversatt til arabisk,” TV2, October 15, 2011. it’s only a matter of time before we see Also, members on the al-Shumukh al-Islami jihadist web terrorism on our streets inspired by forum translated, posted and discussed a newspaper ar- those who are today fighting alongside ticle about the Norway attacks. Pictures of Breivik and his manifesto were displayed on the front page banner of ism and Political Violence 23:2 (2011). the UK-based website Muslims Against Crusades. 31 Scott Stewart, “Fighting Grassroots Terrorism: How 1 “Former U.S. Soldier Charged with Trying to Aid So- 30 Petter Nesser, “Ideologies of Jihad in Europe,” Terror- Local Vigilance Can Help,” Stratfor, August 3, 2011. mali Militants,” Voice of America, January 9, 2012.

18 january 2012 . Vol 5. Issue 1 al-Shabaab.”2 This alarm was not Al-Shabab’s Western Propaganda are supposedly hostile to them and without foundation. The past years In early November 2011, al-Shabab their religion, and move to countries have witnessed a number of UK-based claimed that Abdisalan Hussein Ali, where they can wage jihad against the Somalis and other Muslims traveling an American-Somali from Minnesota modern day crusaders and pharaohs. to the region to train and fight for the wanted by the Federal Bureau of “Be prepared,” exclaimed the speaker, Somali jihadists. In October 2007, an Investigation, took part in an October “the umma [global Islamic community] unnamed British-Somali was among the assault against African Union forces is waiting for us.” To Muslims living first Western-based jihadists to die for in Mogadishu. He was apparently one in the West, he proclaimed, “don’t sit al-Shabab when he detonated a suicide of two suicide bombers involved in around like a couch potato or just chill vest at an Ethiopian army checkpoint the attack.6 Ali is among a group of at all day...go on the internet and find out in the town of Baidoa, killing himself least 11 Americans wanted by the FBI the fate of the Muslims...come to the and around 20 soldiers.3 In his suicide in connection to their associations land of jihad.”8 video, he had a message for his fellow with al-Shabab. If the group’s claims British Muslims: are confirmed, Ali is at least the third Of the Americans wanted by the U.S. American al-Shabab suicide bomber.7 government for involvement with al- I am doing this martyrdom Shabab, an American named Omar operation for the sake of Allah. I Al-Shabab made a specific effort Hammami has by far the highest profile advise you to migrate to Somalia to promptly release the audio of a and is now placed firmly at the center and wage war against your “martyrdom” sermon (which al-Shabab of al-Shabab’s Western recruitment enemies. Death in honor is better claims is delivered by Ali) on jihadist strategy. Having joined al-Shabab than life in humiliation...To the web forums following the October in late 2006, he made his first public Somalis living abroad, are you operation. The intention, as with all al- appearance as the American face of the happy in your comfort while your Shabab media aimed at Westerners, was group in an October 2007 interview religion, your people are being with al-Jazira, in which he announced: attacked and humiliated?4 “Al-Shabab’s appeal to Oh, Muslims of America, take into In the United States, the problem is Western Muslims is not consideration the situation in So- equally serious, with some American malia. After 15 years of chaos and Muslims either joining or providing a new development. It is oppressive rule by the American- material support to the militia. in the last few months, backed warlords, your brothers Among the first to become involved stood up and established peace was American convert Zachary Adam however, that a more and justice in this land.9 Chesser (also known as Abu Talha al- concerted strategy to target Amriki), who in February 2011 was Since then, Hammami’s public convicted of providing material support Western Muslims has pronouncements rarely amounted to to the terrorist group.5 Another example taken shape.” more than a few Islamic rap songs is Somali-American Shirwa Ahmed, and short, generic calls to the various who traveled from Minnesota to Somalia theaters of jihad. This changed in where he conducted a suicide bombing early October 2011, however, when he in October 2008. to use Ali’s story to awaken militant released an audio sermon apparently jihadist feeling among American attempting to stake his claim as the new Therefore, al-Shabab’s appeal to Muslims. Thus, he called on his audience shaykh of Western jihadists. Western Muslims is not a new to migrate to Somalia as part of what is development. It is in the last few known as the hijra, which refers to the Entitled “Lessons Learned,” the sermon months, however, that a more Prophet Muhammad’s seventh century was aimed directly at Western Muslims concerted strategy to target Western flight from Mecca to Medina from where and contained much of the same type of Muslims has taken shape. he waged a successful jihad against his effective messaging utilized previously enemies. by al-`Awlaqi. The sermon was a discussion of what he referred to as his The juxtaposition of an Islamic “transition in thinking from pre-jihadi historical narrative upon a modern days to post-jihadi” provided in the conflict is one of the cornerstones of all hope that, by explaining how a Western al-Qa`ida related media. Just as their Muslim can become a jihadist, he will pious predecessors had done hundreds encourage others to make a similar 10 2 “MI5 Chief Warns of Terror Threat from Britons of years ago, Western Muslims are transition. Trained in Somalia,” Guardian, September 16, 2010. told to leave un-Islamic lands, which 3 “Somali Radicals ‘Importing Terror to UK’ say Intel- 8 Audio message released by al-Shabab claiming to be ligence Analysts,” Times, February 16, 2009. 6 Josh Kron, “American Identified as Bomber in Attack the voice of Abdisalan Hussein Ali in author’s posses- 4 “Somalia: The New Pakistan for Terror Recruitment?” on African Union in Somalia,” New York Times, October sion. Channel 4 News, February 16, 2010. 30, 2011. 9 A. Elliott, “The Jihadist Next Door,” New York Times 5 U.S.A. v. Zachary Adam Chesser, District Court for the 7 Josh Kron, “Wanted by the FBI,” New York Times, Oc- Magazine, January 27, 2010. Eastern District of Virginia, 2010. tober 30, 2011. 10 Omar Hammami, “Lessons Learned,” October 7,

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Among the most important changes, he religion to make it more compatible who are considering joining the jihad, said, is a re-calibration of how a Muslim with Western society. For the Salafi- and Hammami continues in a similar perceives their identity. What is required jihadis, this is unacceptable. Therefore, vein during his discussion of ribat, is the construction of what may be these “Starfish Muslims” perceive or living in areas where Muslims described as an “umma-centric” identity; global events involving Muslims are involved in battle. According to Western Muslims must become part of through a corrupt, Western frame or, as `Abdullah `Azzam, ribat is the stage the umma and cast aside any national Hammami put it, “from the perspective immediately following the hijra, where or cultural ties. This can only happen, of their brand new Ray-Ban or Oakley a Muslim lives among the fighters and according to Hammami, when “you get sunglasses.”12 near the front lines before he becomes out of the belly of the beast [Western directly involved in jihad.15 Hammami host countries] and you start living in the Instead of celebrating a terrorist attack is aware that many Western Islamists crisis zones with the Muslims.” In a clear as a blow to those waging a global and Salafists argue that jihad cannot reference to the requirement of performing war on Islam and Muslims, Hammami be pursued by an individual until they hijra discussed above, Hammami argued admonished “Starfish Mo” for “jumping have gained the requisite knowledge that living in the West corrupts and up and down” and criticizing such about Islam through study, and he damages a Muslim’s link to the umma and violence. Why should “Starfish Mo” tries to remove this obstacle by arguing leads to them overlooking their divinely care about the deaths of “Joe and Sally” that this can take place after the hijra has ordained duties to their co-religionists (Hammami’s reference to non-Muslim been performed during the ribat stage around the globe. Western Muslims, he Westerners)? Seen through a jihadist when “they have a lot of free time.” For asserted, cannot truly experience and frame, these individuals are not Salafi-jihadis, action is almost always be part of the umma “by walking down innocent civilians worthy of any pity; preferable to discussion and study, and orderly sidewalks and buying Subway rather, they are “part of a civilization Hammami made this clear: sandwiches on your way back from the that is at war with Islam,” and this gym.”11 is how Western Muslims must re- So for those of you out there who calibrate both their own identities believe that the virtue of seeking Muslims avoiding hijra and remaining and their perceptions of the people with knowledge is greater than the in their host countries has led to the whom they share their daily lives.13 virtue of acting upon it, that phenomenon of what Hammami referred it’s greater than the virtue of to as “the Starfish Effect,” whereby Through these arguments, Hammami fulfilling the individual obligation Muslims who are cut off from their umma seeks to create an unbearable tension of liberating the Muslim lands… generate their own understandings and for Western Muslims between being we have a limited time offer for interpretations of their religion just true to their religion on the one you…you have the opportunity to hand, while also living in the lands engage in both of these actions.16 of disbelief. “Trying to practice your “Hammami argued that religion in dar al-kuffar [the land of Moving on from the ideological to the living in the West corrupts unbelief] is nothing more than a dream practical aspects of taking part in jihad, world” as it requires a Muslim to Hammami discussed the realities of and damages a Muslim’s supposedly deny the “face of Islam” by fighting on the front lines of jihad, link to the umma and leads rejecting supremacist terrorist violence warning his pampered Western audience and searching for a moderate path. Not not to expect the amenities they enjoy to them overlooking their even Western Muslims sympathetic to at home. They must prepare themselves divinely ordained duties to the global jihad are spared, as Hammami for a less comfortable life: criticized them for “supporting jihad their co-religionists around and the umma, while here [in the West] at Here in Somalia especially, the globe.” the same time we’re still going on about you’ll probably never, ever see a our normal everyday lives, and trying microwave, or even a normal oven… to engage in da`wa [proselytizing], and And then you get, most of the giving the kuffar smiling faces.” It is not mujahidin, even seeing television… as a starfish regenerates a lost limb. enough, therefore, to sympathize with it becomes a rarity for many of us.17 Although he used an analogy that or passively support al-Qa`ida; Muslims perhaps lacks the sophistication of must join the fight and “throw your lot For those who may be put off by more articulate jihadists, Hammami’s in with the rest of the umma.”14 this rather bleak and dire warning, point is one which has been made by Hammami offered the popular slogan jihadist ideologues for many years: One of the recurring features of used in advertising for Slim Fast diet Western Muslims have decided to Yemeni-American cleric Anwar al- milkshakes: “if I can do it, you can do reinterpret their religion (and in `Awlaqi’s work was his desire to it.”18 particular their views on jihad) to please eliminate the ideological and practical their non-Muslim host society. They impediments facing Western Muslims 15 `Abdullah `Azzam, “Join the Caravan,” Azzam Pub- have made the error of customizing their lications, 2001. 12 Ibid. 16 Hammami. 2011. 13 Ibid. 17 Ibid. 11 Ibid. 14 Ibid. 18 Ibid.

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His frank assessment of the experience victories where other media have of His Messenger.”22 The holy nature of also extends to the mujahidin reported great losses for the group. The this conflict, according to Rage, meant themselves, who he admitted are “not most recent of these, released a month that all of the world’s Muslims are angels,” but rather “humans, they make after Hammami’s sermon, is also among obligated to join the fight: “Since the mistakes probably just as often as they the most comprehensive they have battle is between the defenders of this get things right.” Western Muslims produced. Entitled “The Burundian cross and bible, and those defending the must not, however, use the faults of Bloodbath: Battle of Daynile,” it is a Holy Qur’an, it is obligatory upon the some jihadist fighters as an excuse not report of a recent battle between al- Muslim people as a whole to stand by to take part in jihad, and instead learn Shabab and Burundian soldiers who and support the Holy Qur’an.”23 to “separate between the validity of formed part of the African Union the cause, and the sanctity of those contingent in Daynile, a district in More recently, al-Shabab’s desire to upholding it.” In what is perhaps the southeastern Somalia. Despite other cultivate its own alternative media clearest example of Hammami’s desire media reports of al-Shabab struggling led them to establish an English- to pair himself with al-`Awlaqi, he to control the area, the reporter talked language Twitter account on December cited Yusuf al-`Uyayri jihadist tract of a massacre of the “African Crusaders 7, 2011, which has thus far been used “Constants on the Path of Jihad” to and their Western masters.”20 to antagonize the invading Kenyan prove the righteousness of the cause Defence Forces (KDF) and call followers and the guarantee of victory.19 This was Much of the report tried to give its to jihad. Called the HSM Press Office,24 no doubt done in the full knowledge Western audience an impression of it describes the group as “an Islamic that his English-speaking audience the large, international scope and movement that governs South & Cen. could only have come across this work apparently sectarian nature of the [tral] Somalia & part of the global through al-`Awlaqi’s translation of supposed war on Islam and Muslims. struggle towards the revival of Islamic it, which is among the most famous The video focused on the “Made in Khilaafa [Caliphate].” It is unclear who and influential works for the Western France” tags found on the armored runs the account, although it is almost jihadist audience. vests of dead Burundian soldiers. certainly a native English speaker, Additionally, among the interviewees and messages display a surprisingly Al-Shabab’s Cultivation of Alternative Media was Shaykh Ali Muhammad Rage, an high standard of vocabulary. The Although Anwar al-`Awlaqi’s account, much like the al-Kataib news individual charisma and popularity reports but in real-time, allows al- allowed him to gain influence over a “Such Twitter interactions, Shabab to announce its attacks and substantial number of followers, the although short and other operations without having to rely peak of his career as a jihadist preacher on Western news reports. One of the came when he became associated with seemingly innocuous, serve first tweets made on the account, for AQAP’s media center, al-Malahim. a purpose: they strengthen example, stated: Al-Qa`ida and its affiliates have long known that to capitalize on the the resolve of Western 6-DEC: Martyrdom seeker popularity of individual preachers sympathizers and potential infiltrates K4 circle [main and produce effective propaganda, traffic circle in Mogadishu] in they require an entire media apparatus recruits by offering a #Mogadishu. 3 #Ugandanm that provides a clear alternative to conduit through which [Ugandan] 7 TFG soldiers mainstream Western media, which pronounced dead on the scene. 2 they consider to be hostile to Muslims. they can interact with mercenaries injured.25 Through its media center, AQAP was operational members.” able to consolidate all of its propaganda, Twitter also makes the group more and package it effectively, with al- accessible to followers, and allows the `Awlaqi at the center of the products administrator of the account to carry on designed for Western Muslims. Al- al-Shabab spokesman who declared conversations with other Twitter users. Shabab has followed suit, and in July that: “We also want to let the Muslims In one example, a jihadist Twitter user 2010 began to produce lengthy English- know that this is a war between eman sent a message to the al-Shabab account language propaganda through its media [belief] and kufr [unbelief], between saying: “May Allah give you victory! wing, al-Kataib. Islam and Christianity.”21 To illustrate I love you for the sake of Allah!” Al- his point, he held up a bible and cross Shabab responded in kind, saying: “May In the past, al-Kataib has produced taken from the bodies of the Burundian the One for whom you love us for His videos designed to appear like Western soldiers and said: “what you see here sake [Allah] love you!”26 news reports, only with a clear jihadist is a Christian cross and a bible. They bent. In the videos, the reporter, carry these two along with them as we whose face is concealed by a scarf, carry the book of Allah and the Sunna 22 Ibid. speaks in a British accent and travels 23 Ibid. the battlefields of Somalia singing the 24 “HSM” is an acronym for Harakat al-Shabab al-Mu- praises of the mujahidin and claiming 20 “The Burundian Bloodbath: Battle of Daynile,” al- jahidin. Kataib Media Foundation, November 11, 2011. 25 HSM Press Office Twitter account, December 6, 2011. 19 Ibid. 21 Ibid. 26 HSM Press Office Twitter account, December 8, 2011.

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Such Twitter interactions, although language Inspire magazine as they try to short and seemingly innocuous, serve take the Western jihadist media mantle Recent Highlights in a purpose: they strengthen the resolve from AQAP. Terrorist Activity of Western sympathizers and potential recruits by offering a conduit through Concerns about the threat posed by al- November 1, 2011 (UNITED STATES): which they can interact with operational Shabab are not only based on recent A U.S. federal appeals court upheld members.27 intelligence, but also on the history and the convictions of five men accused of legacy of other foreign jihadists. As both trying to join al-Qa`ida to blow up the These exchanges, however, are not the Afghan and Bosnian conflicts have 110-story Sears Tower in Chicago, as limited to followers, and much of demonstrated, traveling for jihad is not well as to bomb FBI offices in several the account is dominated by regular always a one-way street, and in recent cities. The men were part of the conversations between al-Shabab and years Somalia, along with Yemen, has “Liberty City Seven.” – AP, November 2 the spokesman of the Kenyan military, emerged as the latest incubator of global Major E. Chirchir. In what amounts to jihad. This may lead to the creation November 2, 2011 (THAILAND): a propaganda war being waged on the of the next generation of hardened Suspected Muslim insurgents killed social networking site, each participant mujahidin who, after their experiences six people in southern Thailand’s attempts to delegitimize and undermine on the battlefield and extensive terrorist Narathiwat Province. According to their opponent, calling into question training, could seek to establish Agence France-Presse, “Thailand’s both the morality and effectiveness of themselves in other countries, much southernmost provinces have been each other’s military actions. like veterans of Afghanistan have done plagued by more than eight years of all over the globe. Due to Western conflict that has claimed the lives of On December 9, 2011, for example, Major governments’ continued scrutiny of this more than 4,800 people, both Muslims Chirchir wrote on his Twitter account of issue, it will be difficult for an American and Buddhists.” – AFP, November 2 the array of assets available to his force: or British Somali to return from Somalia “Look at the assets committed to the and successfully carry out an attack, November 3, 2011 (CANADA): operation. We have all the components; although al-Shabab may pursue this Canada’s top court upheld a lower LAND, AIR, MARITIME.”28 objective alongside their main aim of court decision to halt the extradition to recruiting Westerners to take part in the United States of Abdullah Khadr, The reply from al-Shabab was dismissive the Somali insurgency. an alleged al-Qa`ida arms supplier. and mocked his men’s fighting abilities: – AFP, November 3 “Assets are worthless without men; Alexander Meleagrou-Hitchens is a your inexperienced boys flee from Ph.D. candidate and Research Fellow at November 3, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): confrontation & flinch in the face of the International Centre for the Study Taliban fighters launched an attack death.”29 of Radicalisation and Political Violence at the compound of ESKO company, (ICSR), King’s College, London. He is a contractor working with the Al-Shabab’s use of Twitter as a author of “As American as Apple Pie: international coalition, in Herat propaganda battlefield should, Anwar al-Awlaki’s Jihad Against the Province. At least one guard was therefore, be seen in the context of West,” a pamphlet published by ICSR in injured in the attack. – AP, November 3 the group’s desire to increase its 2011. ability to influence the minds of November 3, 2011 (IRAQ): Shi`a cleric Western Muslims, and demonstrates Muqtada al-Sadr said that despite the importance that the group places on the upcoming U.S. withdrawal from taking some element of control over the Iraq, “the American occupation will reporting of its actions to the Western stay in Iraq under different names.” world. Al-Sadr charged that since the U.S. military plans on keeping troops in Conclusion the larger region, the United States In the near-term, there are likely to be wants to “control the Middle East.” attempts by Hammami and al-Kataib – AP, November 3 to redouble their propaganda efforts, and it is possible that they may produce November 3, 2011 (IRAQ): Two their own version of AQAP’s English- roadside bombs exploded near a police checkpoint in Karrada district of

27 For more on how this level of access to members of a Baghdad, killing four policemen and group can encourage recruitment and mobilize support- one other person. – AFP, November 3 ers, see Lauren Kessler, The Dissident Press: Alternative Journalism in American History (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, November 3, 2011 (IRAQ): A suicide 1984). bomber targeted anti-al-Qa`ida 28 Major E Chirchir’s Twitter account, December 9, militiamen near Ba`quba, Diyala 2011. Province. Ten minutes after the blast, 29 HSM Press Office Twitter account, December 9, a car bomb exploded in a nearby 2011. parking area. A total of five people

22 january 2012 . Vol 5. Issue 1 were killed in the two blasts. – AFP, November 4, 2011 (NIGERIA): A car were no reports of coalition casualties. November 3 bomb exploded outside a building – Voice of America, November 9 used by Nigeria’s military in November 3, 2011 (IRAQ): Gunmen Damaturu of northeastern Yobe State. November 9, 2011 (UNITED STATES): shot to death a policeman at his home The bomb was part of a series of Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, a Saudi man in Mosul, Ninawa Province. – AFP, attacks on churches and mosques in accused of plotting the 2000 bombing November 3 Damaturu. The number of casualties of the USS Cole, appeared in a military from the coordinated assault was not courtroom in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. November 3, 2011 (PAKISTAN): A immediately clear, although dozens It was the first time al-Nashiri has U.S. drone strike killed at least three are presumed dead. – AP, November 4; been seen in public since his capture militants in North Waziristan Agency Telegraph, November 6 nine years ago. According to the New of the Federally Administered Tribal York Times, “He is also the first ‘high- Areas. The attack targeted members of November 5, 2011 (PAKISTAN): value’ detainee—a senior terrorism the Haqqani network. – AFP, November 3 A suicide bomber detonated his suspect who was held for a time by explosives near Quetta, Baluchistan the C.I.A. at a ‘black site’ prison and November 3, 2011 (KENYA): Kenya’s Province. The bomber’s device subjected to what the agency called military spokesman warned on Twitter appeared to detonate prematurely, ‘enhanced interrogation techniques’— that al-Shabab “has resorted to using and he was the only casualty. – Dawn, to receive a trial at Guantanamo. For donkeys to transport their weapons,” November 5 that reason, his case is also seen as a and said that “Kenyans dealing in forerunner to the planned prosecution donkey trade along the Kenya-Somali November 6, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four border are advised not to sell their Two suicide bombers attacked other accused conspirators in the Sept. animals to Al Shabaab.” – MSNBC, worshippers on the outskirts of Old 11 attacks.” – New York Times, November 9 November 3 Baghlan City in Baghlan Province, killing seven people. Two of the dead November 9, 2011 (NORTH AFRICA): November 4, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): were police commanders. According Mokhtar Belmokhtar, a top leader Taliban leader Mullah Omar released a to Afghan police, one bomber in al-Qa`ida in the Islamic Maghreb statement to his fighters, telling them successfully detonated his explosives (AQIM), claimed to have acquired to avoid causing civilian casualties. while the other was apprehended weapons from neighboring Libya. He said, “If it is irrefutably proven before he could execute his part of the Analysts worry that AQIM may be in that the blood of innocent Muslims is attack. – AP, November 6 possession of surface-to-air missiles, spilled by the negligence of mujahidin, taken from slain Libyan leader then a penalty should be implemented November 7, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): Mu`ammar Qadhafi’s arsenal. – AFP, in accordance with Shari`a.” In A roadside bomb exploded near a November 9 response, a U.S. spokesperson told police vehicle in northern Badghis reporters: “They [the Taliban] say Province, killing 11 people. – Voice of November 10, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): one thing and do another…it’s an America, November 8; AFP, November 8 A group of Taliban suicide attackers obvious contradiction. From the stormed a government office in top down, the Taliban is waging a November 7, 2011 (PAKISTAN): A Paktia Province, killing three Afghan murderous campaign that deliberately suicide bomber targeted a former policemen and injuring three U.S. targets civilians…The facts speak for government official outside a soldiers. – AFP, November 10 themselves.” – AP, November 4; Reuters, mosque in Swabi District of Khyber November 8 Pakhtunkhwa Province, killing the November 12, 2011 (PAKISTAN): man, his son as well as his bodyguard. Pakistani security forces raided a November 4, 2011 (YEMEN): Yemeni The official was a distinguished leader Lashkar-i-Jhangvi hideout in Jellum government forces killed five in the Awami National Party. – AP, district of Punjab Province. During suspected al-Qa`ida in the Arabian November 7; The News International, November 8 the raid, however, four intelligence Peninsula militants in southern Abyan officials were killed. – AP, November 12 Province. – CNN, November 5 November 7, 2011 (YEMEN): Yemeni security forces killed six militants November 12, 2011 (KAZAKHSTAN): A November 4, 2011 (NIGERIA): Suicide in Zinjibar, Abyan Province. – AP, militant in the southern town of Taraz bombers attacked a military base in November 7 killed seven people. The man first Maiduguri, Borno State. Authorities shot to death four law enforcement suspect that Boko Haram was behind November 8, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): officers and two civilians before being the violence. The number of casualties A large contingent of Taliban fighters captured by a police captain. He then was not immediately known. – AP, attacked a U.S. military post in detonated a suicide bomb, killing the November 4; BBC, November 4 eastern Paktika Province. According police captain. A group calling itself to Afghan officials, at least 50 Taliban Jund al-Khilafah (Soldiers of the militants were killed after soldiers Caliphate) took credit for the attack. called in coalition air support. There – RFE/RL, November 14

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November 13, 2011 (YEMEN): Yemeni Federally Administered Tribal Areas, York City Police Commissioner security forces killed at least nine killing one officer. – AP, November 16 Raymond Kelly said authorities “had suspected al-Qa`ida in the Arabian to act quickly…because he was in fact Peninsula members in southern Abyan November 17, 2011 (PAKISTAN): putting this bomb together. He was Province. – Voice of America, November 13 U.S. drones killed eight suspected drilling holes and it would have been militants in North Waziristan Agency not appropriate for us to let him walk November 13, 2011 (NIGERIA): of the Federally Administered Tribal out the door with that bomb.” New Algeria’s deputy foreign minister Areas. – Voice of America, November 17 York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said that intelligence reports show said that Pimentel “appears to be a coordination between al-Qa`ida in November 17, 2011 (PAKISTAN): A total lone wolf. He was not part of a the Islamic Maghreb and the Nigerian suicide bomber detonated a grenade larger conspiracy emanating from Islamist sect Boko Haram. – Reuters, after Pakistani security forces raided abroad.” – AP, November 21 November 13 his apartment in Karachi. He was killed in the blast. Authorities found in his November 21, 2011 (NIGERIA): November 15, 2011 (GLOBAL): Al- possession both U.S. and Pakistani Nigeria’s secret police said that Qa`ida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri passports. He has been identified as Islamist sect Boko Haram had released a new video message Saeed Abdul Salam. – AP, November 19 “political patronage and sponsorship” reminiscing about Usama bin Ladin, in the country. According to Agence saying that the slain al-Qa`ida leader November 17, 2011 (SOMALIA): France-Presse, “Speculation has been was “tender” and “kind.” – BBC, The African Union is weighing a rife over political links to at least November 15 plan that could bring thousands of certain factions of Boko Haram, which Ethiopian troops back into Somalia has claimed responsibility for dozens November 15, 2011 (UNITED to apply more pressure on al-Shabab. of attacks, including an August KINGDOM): Police arrested four men The Ethiopian troops would be part suicide bombing of UN headquarters for plotting to execute a suicide attack of a new offensive. African Union in Abuja which killed at least 24 in Birmingham. The men are accused troops are currently in Mogadishu, people. Such speculation has pointed of terrorism fundraising and traveling and Kenyan forces are fighting in the to local politics in Borno State, where to Pakistan for terrorist training. south on the Somalia-Kenya border. Maiduguri is the capital, or opposition – Telegraph, November 16 By November 19-20, reports suggested to President Goodluck Jonathan in the that Ethiopian military convoys had mainly Muslim north.” – AFP, November November 15, 2011 (NORWAY): Three moved across the border into Somalia. 21 Norwegians charged with plotting to – New York Times, November 17; Voice of America, bomb a Danish newspaper for printing November 20 November 22, 2011 (GLOBAL): cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad According to the Washington Post, pleaded not guilty in court. The November 18, 2011 (IRAQ): Senior “Ayman al-Zawahiri and his second in ringleader of the group, Mikael Davud, Iraqi Interior Ministry official command, Abu Yahya al-Libi, are the allegedly trained at an al-Qa`ida camp Adnan al-Asadi warned that the last remaining ‘high-value’ targets of in Pakistan. – Reuters, November 15 U.S. withdrawal from Iraq has the CIA’s drone campaign against al- given al-Qa`ida and its affiliates the Qaeda in Pakistan, U.S. officials said, November 15, 2011 (PAKISTAN): A opportunity to strengthen operations although lower-level fighters and suspected U.S. drone killed seven in the country’s northern and western other insurgent groups remain a focus alleged militants in Miran Shah, North provinces. “When the U.S. withdrew of Predator surveillance and strikes.” Waziristan Agency of the Federally from this triangle which is Diyala, – Washington Post, November 22 Administered Tribal Areas. – AP, Salahuddin, Anbar and Mosul...a gap November 15 was left behind,” he told Reuters. “Al November 22, 2011 (TURKEY): Turkish Qaeda has redeployed in the area... police detained 15 people suspected of November 15, 2011 (PAKISTAN): Al Qaeda is present, it appears and having links to al-Qa`ida. The police Suspected U.S. drones killed 16 alleged disappears and carries out operations, raids occurred in the central Anatolian militants in South Waziristan Agency attacks and retreats. It’s a guerrilla city of Konya. – AP, November 22 of the Federally Administered Tribal war, but they are no longer able to Areas. – AP, November 16 hold ground.” – Reuters, November 18 November 22, 2011 (PAKISTAN): Husain Haqqani, Pakistan’s ambassador November 16, 2011 (PAKISTAN): A car November 19, 2011 (UNITED STATES): to the United States, resigned over a bomb exploded at a police checkpoint Police arrested Jose Pimentel on reported attempt to seek U.S. assistance in Karachi, killing three suspected charges of plotting to bomb police and to rein in Pakistan’s military. On militants and one police officer. – AP, post offices in New York City, as well November 23, he was replaced by November 16 as U.S. troops returning home from lawmaker Sherry Rehman, a former overseas. The “al-Qa`ida sympathizer” information minister, who will serve November 16, 2011 (PAKISTAN): is 27-years-old, a U.S. citizen and a as Pakistan’s new ambassador to the Insurgents attacked a military resident of Manhattan. He is originally United States. – AP, November 17; Los checkpoint in Kurram Agency of the from the Dominican Republic. New Angeles Times, November 24

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November 22, 2011 (PAKISTAN): The reforms in the face of the Arab Spring December 1, 2011 (UNITED STATES): Pakistani Taliban announced a cease- protests. – Telegraph, November 27 Obama administration national fire with the Pakistani government in security lawyers said that U.S. citizens support of peace talks. – AP, November November 27, 2011 (PHILIPPINES): are legitimate military targets if they 22 A bomb ripped through the Atilano join arms with al-Qa`ida. – Toronto Star, Pension House, a budget hotel in December 1 November 24, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): Zamboanga City, killing three people. Taliban militants killed at least seven Authorities blame the Abu Sayyaf December 1, 2011 (PAKISTAN): Al- local guards in an attack on a goods Group. – Sun Star, November 28 Qa`ida claimed responsibility for the convoy in western Farah Province. August 2011 kidnapping of Warren – Voice of America, November 24 November 28, 2011 (NORTH AFRICA): Weinstein, a 70-year-old American British Foreign Secretary William aid worker, in Pakistan. Al-Qa`ida November 24, 2011 (NIGERIA): A Hague warned that mercenary chief Ayman al-Zawahiri said that purported spokesman for Islamist sect fighters driven out of Libya could end Weinstein would be released if the Boko Haram claimed to “have links up joining al-Qa`ida in the Islamic United States halted airstrikes in with al-Qa`ida…They assist us and we Maghreb. – AP, November 28 Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and assist them.” – AFP, November 24 Yemen. Al-Zawahiri also demanded November 28, 2011 (IRAQ): A suicide the release of all al-Qa`ida and Taliban November 24, 2011 (MALI): Two bomber in an explosives-laden vehicle suspects around the world. “Just as French geologists were abducted from rammed into the gate of the al-Hout the Americans detain all whom they their hotel by gunmen in Hombori, prison in Taji, north of Baghdad. Ten suspect of links to al Qaeda and the Mali. – BBC, November 24 policemen and nine civilians were Taliban, even remotely, we detained killed. – AP, November 28 this man who is neck-deep in American November 25, 2011 (MALI): Gunmen aid to Pakistan since the 1970s,” al- killed a German man in Timbuktu, November 28, 2011 (SOMALIA): Zawahiri said. – CBS News, December 1 while also abducting three men from Al-Shabab banned 16 aid agencies the Netherlands, South Africa and operating in famine-hit Somalia, December 2, 2011 (UNITED STATES): Sweden. According to the Associated accusing them of political bias. Some U.S. Homeland Security Director Janet Press, “A witness and an official said of the banned agencies are affiliated Napolitano warned that the risk from gunmen burst into the restaurant, with the United Nations, such as “lone wolf” terrorists had increased. grabbed four tourists dining there and Unicef. – BBC, November 28 “There’s been a lot of evolution executed one when he refused to climb [with terrorism] over the past three into their truck.” – AP, November 26 November 29, 2011 (PAKISTAN): years,” she said. “The thing that’s Authorities announced the arrest of most noticeable to me is the growth of November 26, 2011 (PAKISTAN): Commander Toofan, a key figure in the lone wolf.” Napolitano also said, NATO helicopters and fighter jets Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. He was “From a U.S. perspective, over the killed 24 Pakistani soldiers in apprehended in Nowshera District of last several years we have had more Pakistani territory at a checkpoint Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. – The attacks emanating from AQAP than on the Afghan border. Afghan and News International, November 29 from core al-Qaida.” – AP, December 2 Western officials, however, said that they first came under fire from across November 29, 2011 (YEMEN): December 2, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): the Pakistani border, which is why Government troops killed at least 11 A suicide bomber killed three people the deadly airstrike was ordered. The suspected al-Qa`ida in the Arabian outside a small U.S. military base in incident has added severe tension Peninsula militants in Abyan Logar Province. – UPI, December 2 to the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. Province. – CNN, December 1 – Telegraph, November 26; Wall Street Journal, December 3, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): November 28 November 30, 2011 (PAKISTAN): A A roadside bomb killed three NATO car bomb killed Hashim Khan, an soldiers in eastern Afghanistan. November 26, 2011 (KENYA): anti-Taliban tribal leader, in Orakzai – AFP, December 3 Suspected al-Shabab fighters raided Agency of the Federally Administered a police post near Mandera in Tribal Areas. – CNN, November 30 December 5, 2011 (PHILIPPINES): northern Kenya, seizing weapons and Armed men abducted an Australian ammunition. – Reuters, November 26 November 30, 2011 (SOMALIA): A man from his home on Mindanao suicide bomber killed at least five island in the southern Philippines. November 27, 2011 (MOROCCO): An people outside a military compound Authorities suspect that the Abu Islamist party in Morocco won power in Mogadishu. The bomber detonated Sayyaf Group is responsible. – AFP, for the first time in the country’s explosives after being approached by December 5 history. Election results showed that security forces outside Villa Baidoa, a the Islamic Justice and Development government base in the capital. – Voice December 6, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): Party won a majority of parliamentary of America, November 30 A suicide bomber targeted a crowded seats. The elections come after the Kabul shrine as Shi`a gathered to Moroccan king decided to bring mark the festival of Ashura. The

25 january 2012 . Vol 5. Issue 1 explosion killed at least 55 people. A and its affiliates and adherents.” December 13, 2011 (IRAQ): Gunmen Taliban spokesman publicly denied – AFP, December 8 shot and killed a Christian man and involvement. – Reuters, December 6 his wife in Mosul, Ninawa Province. December 8, 2011 (GERMANY): – AFP, December 13 December 6, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): German police arrested a 27-year-old A bicycle bomb exploded near a Shi`a man in Bochum on charges of planning December 13, 2011 (YEMEN): Yemeni mosque in northern Mazar-i-Sharif, an al-Qa`ida attack. – Reuters, December 9 security forces arrested six alleged Balkh Province, killing four people. al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula A Taliban spokesman publicly denied December 9, 2011 (UNITED STATES): militants for planning attacks on involvement. – Reuters, December 6; BBC, An indictment unsealed in federal foreign and local targets. – Reuters, December 6 court in Brooklyn charged Sayfildin December 13 Tahir Sharif with conspiring to kill December 6, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): Americans and providing material December 13, 2011 (NORTH AFRICA): Afghan President Hamid Karzai support to terrorists. Sharif is currently Al-Qa`ida in the Islamic Maghreb assured that Pakistan would play a in custody in Canada. According to the (AQIM) posted photos of five role in any Afghan peace process. Associated Press, “Prosecutors say he Europeans kidnapped in Mali in “Pakistan’s role in any negotiations was part of a terror network behind November. – Reuters, December 13 with the Taliban is very important separate attacks in Iraq in 2009 that and that is what we are seeking,” he killed five American soldiers outside December 14, 2011 (CANADA): said. – Reuters, December 6 a U.S. base and seven people at an Canada announced it would prosecute Iraqi police complex. They say Sharif a Toronto man, Mohamed Hassan December 6, 2011 (SOMALIA): A was caught on a wiretap giving the Hersi, who is charged with planning suicide bomber in a vehicle detonated attackers encouragement and advice. to fly to Africa to join al-Shabab. explosives 50 meters from the Turkish The 38-year-old Canadian citizen – AFP, December 14 Embassy in Mogadishu, killing at least and Iraqi national was arrested in three people. – Reuters, December 6 Edmonton, Alberta, on a U.S. warrant December 14, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): in January [2011].” – AP, December 9 According to the Wall Street Journal, December 7, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): “Afghanistan recalled its ambassador A roadside bomb killed 19 Afghan December 9, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): A in Qatar on Wednesday to protest civilians in Helmand Province. – BBC, suicide bomber killed a district police the Persian Gulf nation’s attempts to December 7 chief and five other people outside a exclude Kabul from secret U.S.-backed mosque in Kunar Province. – Reuters, efforts to establish the first openly December 7, 2011 (YEMEN): Militants December 9 operating Taliban representative linked to al-Qa`ida in the Arabian office since 2001, Afghan officials Peninsula attacked an army post in December 9, 2011 (PAKISTAN): A said.” – Wall Street Journal, December 15 Abyan Province, but were driven roadside bomb killed three Pakistani back. Approximately nine militants soldiers in Karachi. – AFP, December 8 December 16, 2011 (UNITED STATES): and one Yemeni soldier were killed. Waad Ramadan Alwan, an Iraqi – Huffington Post, December 8 December 10, 2011 (PHILIPPINES): man, pleaded guilty in a Kentucky A 14-year-old American boy who courtroom to trying to send weapons December 7, 2011 (SOMALIA): Al- was kidnapped by suspected Abu and cash to al-Qa`ida operatives in Shabab created a Twitter account. Sayyaf Group militants escaped after Iraq. – AP, December 16 According to the BBC, al-Shabab five months in jungle captivity. He “writes sophisticated press releases was recovered by a village official in December 16, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): in excellent English, complete with Lamitan town on southern Basilan At least one Taliban fighter attacked photographs. And now it has a Twitter Island. – AP, December 10; Philippine Inquirer, a police station in Kabul with gunfire account. Perhaps this is in response December 12 and grenades before fleeing. There to the highly active Twitter account of were no casualties. – New York Post, Kenya’s military spokesman.” – BBC, December 12, 2011 (YEMEN): Several December 16 December 8 militants from al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula escaped a prison in December 18, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): December 8, 2011 (UNITED STATES): Aden, tunneling their way to freedom. A man threw grenades at a police The White House released a new At least 10 prisoners escaped through vehicle in a crowded market in Khost plan to combat homegrown domestic the 130-foot long tunnel. – AP, December city, and then fled the area. Eighteen terrorism and attempts by al-Qa`ida 12 civilians and two policemen were to radicalize or recruit American wounded. – AFP, December 17 Muslims. The document, called the December 13, 2011 (IRAQ): A suicide Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP), bomber killed a police officer in December 19, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): aims to “prevent all forms of violent Baghdad. – AFP, December 13 Despite protests from Afghan extremism, [but] we will prioritize President Hamid Karzai, NATO said it preventing violent extremism and would continue its night raids against terrorism that is inspired by al-Qaeda suspected insurgents in Afghanistan.

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According to the Associated Press, December 21, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): December 23, 2011 (SYRIA): Two “The raids have become a flash point A roadside bomb killed five Polish suicide bombers in vehicles detonated for anger over foreign meddling in soldiers in Ghazni Province. – AP, explosives outside the compounds Afghanistan and whether detention December 21 for Syria’s intelligence services in operations will be run by the Afghans Damascus, killing at least 40 people. or Americans. Karzai has demanded December 22, 2011 (UNITED The Syrian government blamed al- that foreign troops stop entering STATES): The U.S. State Department Qa`ida for the blasts. – Huffington Post, homes, saying Afghan citizens cannot and Treasury Department announced December 23; Wall Street Journal, December 24 feel secure if they think armed a $10 million bounty for information soldiers might burst into their houses that leads to the arrest of Kurdish- December 24, 2011 (PAKISTAN): A in the middle of the night. [Brigadier Syrian Ezedin Abdel Aziz Khalil, also Pakistani Taliban suicide bomber General Carsten] Jacobson countered known as Yasin al-Suri, an al-Qa`ida drove an explosives-laden vehicle into that the raids remain the safest form financier and facilitator operating a paramilitary camp in Bannu town of operation to take out insurgent from Iran. The statement read, of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, leaders. They account for less than 1 “Al-Suri’s network has served as a killing six soldiers. – AP, December 24 percent of civilian casualties, and in financial conduit, collecting funds 85 percent of cases no shots are fired, from donors throughout the Gulf and December 24, 2011 (KENYA): Two he said.” – AP, December 19 moving those via Iran to al Qaeda’s grenades were thrown at a nightclub in leadership in Afghanistan and Wajir district in northeastern Kenya December 19, 2011 (YEMEN): Fighting Iraq. Al-Suri’s network also serves as near the Somali border. At least seven between Yemeni soldiers and al- the core pipeline for al Qaeda to funnel people were wounded. Authorities Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula in operatives from the Middle East to suspect that al-Shabab was behind the Abyan Province left two soldiers and Afghanistan and Pakistan. Al-Suri attack. – Reuters, December 25 13 militants dead. – AFP, December 20 works with the Iranian government to secure the release of al Qaeda December 25, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): December 20, 2011 (GLOBAL): A new operatives held in Iranian prisons. A suicide bomber detonated explosives video from al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Once released, the Iranian government during a funeral in the northern city Peninsula appeared on Islamist web transfers the prisoners to al-Suri, who of Taloqan, Takhar Province. At forums, eulogizing slain Yemeni- then helps them transit to Pakistan.” least 20 people, including a member American cleric Anwar al-`Awlaqi. – ABC News, December 22 of parliament, were killed. – Reuters, Al-`Awlaqi was killed by a U.S. drone December 25 in September 2011. – CNN, December 20 December 22, 2011 (IRAQ): Sixteen blasts mostly targeting Shi`a tore December 25, 2011 (NIGERIA): A December 20, 2011 (UNITED STATES): through Baghdad, killing at least 69 series of Christmas Day bomb attacks A federal jury found Tarek Mehanna people. – AP, December 23 tore through Nigeria, killing at guilty of four terrorism-related least 40 people. Some of the attacks charges and three charges of lying to December 22, 2011 (YEMEN): A targeted churches. The Islamist group authorities. He faces life in prison. suspected U.S. drone killed a relative Boko Haram claimed responsibility. Mehanna was born in the United of al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula – Sydney Morning Herald, December 26 States and raised in the suburbs of chief Nasir al-Wahayshi in Abyan Boston. – AP, December 20 Province. – Reuters, December 23 December 25, 2011 (YEMEN): Gunmen shot to death an intelligence chief December 20, 2011 (MAURITANIA): December 23, 2011 (PAKISTAN): in Aden. Authorities blamed the Suspected al-Qa`ida in the Islamic According to the Los Angeles Times, “In an assassination on al-Qa`ida in the Maghreb militants kidnapped a effort to mend badly frayed relations Arabian Peninsula. – AFP, December 25 Mauritanian policeman near the with Pakistan, the CIA has suspended border with Mali. – Reuters, December 21 drone missile strikes on gatherings of December 26, 2011 (IRAQ): A suicide low-ranking militants believed to be bomber detonated a car bomb at a December 20, 2011 (SOMALIA): The involved in cross-border attacks on Baghdad checkpoint near the Iraqi first contingent of Djiboutian soldiers U.S. troops or facilities in Afghanistan, Interior Ministry, killing seven landed in Mogadishu to join the current and former U.S. officials say. people. – AP, December 26 African Union peacekeeping force. The undeclared halt in CIA attacks, “An advance party consisting of 100 now in its sixth week, is aimed at December 27, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): troops...arrived at Mogadishu airport reversing a sharp erosion of trust after A roadside bomb killed three NATO this afternoon,” a statement said. a series of deadly incidents, including troops in eastern Afghanistan. – AP, “A further 800 troops will follow in the mistaken attack by U.S. gunships December 28 the course of the next week or so to that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers last bring the Djiboutian contingent up to month.” – Los Angeles Times, December 23 strength.” – AFP, December 20

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December 27, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): said Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al- CTC Sentinel Staff Gunmen shot to death a community Maliki. “It is Iraq’s day. It is a feast council leader in Musa Qala district of for all Iraqis. It is the dawn of a new Editor-in-Chief Helmand Province. The man’s 20-year- day in Mesopotamia…Your country is Erich Marquardt old son and two-year-old grandson free.” – Reuters, December 31 Senior Editor, CTC were also killed. – AP, December 28

Editorial Board December 27, 2011 (GAZA STRIP): COL Michael J. Meese, Ph.D. Israeli officials said they killed an Department Head al-Qa`ida-affiliated militant in the Department of Social Sciences (West Point) Gaza Strip, accusing him of plotting attacks on Israel from Egypt. The COL Cindy R. Jebb, Ph.D. man, identified as Abdallah Telbani, Deputy Department Head was killed in a missile strike. – Reuters, Department of Social Sciences (West Point) December 27

LTC Liam Collins December 29, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): Executive Director, CTC An Afghan soldier shot to death two French soldiers in Kapisa Province. The Afghan soldier was apparently in league with the Taliban. As stated by the Los Angeles Times, “A Taliban spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, said the shooting had been carried out by what it described as a sleeper agent Contact named Ibrahim, who had joined Combating Terrorism Center ‘the puppet army’ for that specific U.S. Military Academy purpose.” – Los Angeles Times, December 29 607 Cullum Road, Lincoln Hall West Point, NY 10996 December 29, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): Phone: (845) 667-6383 A roadside bomb killed 10 members Email: [email protected] of a British-trained Afghan force in Web: www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/ southern Afghanistan. – Wall Street Journal, December 30 * For Press Inquiries: (845) 667-6383 December 30, 2011 (AFGHANISTAN): A roadside bomb killed four Afghan civilians in Uruzgan Province. – AFP, December 30

support December 30, 2011 (PAKISTAN): The Combating Terrorism Center would A possible suicide bomber killed at like to express its gratitude to its financial least 13 people in Quetta, Baluchistan supporters, for without their support and Province. The Baluchistan Liberation shared vision of the Center products like the Army claimed responsibility. – The CTC Sentinel could not be produced. If you Nation, December 31 are interested in learning more about how to support the Combating Terrorism Center, December 31, 2011 (IRAQ): Gunmen please visit http://www.ctc.usma.edu or call killed five members of a government- Kristin Sorenson at West Point’s Association backed Sunni militia at a checkpoint of Graduates at 845-446-1561. in Diyala Province. – Reuters, December 31

December 31, 2011 (IRAQ): Iraqis commemorated the official withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. Although the last U.S. troops departed Iraq on December 18, the date of December The views expressed in this report are those of 31 marked the end of the 2008 U.S.- the authors and not of the U.S. Military Academy, Iraq security pact. “I declare this the Department of the Army, or any other agency day, the 31st of December, on which of the U.S. Government. the withdrawal of foreign forces from Iraq is complete, as a national day,”

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