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The Future of South Korea: Alternative Scenarios for 2030

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The Future of South Korea: Alternative Scenarios for 2030 THE FUTURE OF SOUTH KOREA: ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR 2030 A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE DIVISION OF THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I AT MĀNOA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN POLITICAL SCIENCE DECEMBER 2012 By Hyeonju Son Dissertation Committee: Jim Dator, Chairperson Manfred Henningsen Debora Halbert Hagen Koo Jang Hyun Kim Keywords: alternative futures scenarios, vision, preferred futures, Korea ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation contains far more than the accumulation of years of working with futures studies. It has been a long journey, reflecting my own personal experience, vision, story, and family and social relationships. Indeed this dissertation would not have been possible without the help and support of the generous and inspiring people around me. I really appreciate their contribution to my development as a person and a scholar. My deepest gratitude goes to my advisor, Jim Dator, a talented teacher and passionate futurist, who guided me with his vast knowledge and expertise, and who promptly, answered my questions with comprehensive solutions. I am truly grateful to him for his patience, ongoing support, and wisdom. I would like to thank other committee members for their personal and intellectual support: Manfred Henningsen, Debora Halbert, Hagen Koo, and Jang Hyun Kim. I especially owe a huge debt of gratitude to Debora Halbert who put a lot of effort into the final stages of my writing. She not only edited my work, but also preserved my motivations with her encouragement. I also wish to extend a thank you to Sun-Ki Chai and Jungmin Seo, who were former committee members and inevitably left before the dissertation was completed. Also, I would like to express my appreciation to my undergraduate teacher Hark-Serp Chung who has always inspired me to get my work done. I would like to thank the faculty at the Korean Language Flagship Center (KLFC) for their contributions to my doctoral education. I have gained valuable experience from the several years in the undergraduate program and the graduate program that cultivates students as Korea specialists. I have enjoyed helping all faculty members and assisting ii students in fulfilling their academic ambitions. I am grateful to KLFC Director Ho-min Sohn, faculty members DongKwan Kong, Sang Yee Cheon, among others. Finally, I wish to acknowledge and thank my family for their love. My wife Kim Sujung for being cheerfully patient over the many years, my daughter Son Ha-Il is always a delight, and my son Son Dong-Ha encourages me to stay strong and helps edit my work without hesitation. My parents Son Jeong-Ho and Shin Suk-Hee, my sister Son Chae-Sun and Jeong-Sun, my parents-in-law, Kim Yong-Un and Yu Sun-Ae are always besides me and have been devoted to my journey in the futures studies. This dissertation is dedicated to all my family. iii ABSTRACT This dissertation is about five alternative future scenarios of Korea in the year 2030 to increase our understanding of the long-term future of Korea. By adopting Jim Dator’s Alternative Futures Scenarios method, the five alternative future scenarios include four alternative scenario archetypes (growth, discipline, collapse, and transformation) and a preferred future scenario. This research explores the key question of ‘what will Korea look like in the year 2030’. After reviewing Korea's history and current situation and existing forecasts of the futures of Korea, we bounded the uncertainty about the future through the five alternative scenarios. First, The Republic of Samsung scenario is an official view of the Korean future. It represents the continuation of the existing economic development. Korean society is following the predictable developmental trajectory from a developmental state society to corporate society. Second, in the Great Han River Flood in Warmer Korea Scenario, Korea encounters catastrophic weather events, contributed by global warming. This scenario can be seen as a degrowth society that is a natural outcome of a destructive river flood. Third, the A Big Global Family Phenomenon scenario challenges the consumption oriented attitude and materialistic nature. It originates from human oriented attitude and social justice. This scenario has charted out the emergence of cosmopolitan values in the context of trends moved toward rapid globalization, dominance of multilevel governance, and growth of global citizenship. Fourth, the Age of Biotechnology scenario is an attempt to realize the post-modern desire for progress through biotechnology. In this scenario Korea is becoming a bio-society due to the successful commercialization of biotechnological products. Fifth, the Peaceful Unification as a Dream Come True scenario is a preferred future. Its vision is the peaceful unification and an equitable and sustainable society. It iv covers a situation in which two Koreans develop a strong support for peaceful unification. Also it is based on a sustainable economy to secure economic growth and to focus on the quality of life. By developing five alternative scenarios, this dissertation addresses the implications of five alternative scenarios for Korea’s future and suggests strategic action plans to move toward a preferred future. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements…………………………………………..…………….……..………ii Abstract……………………………………………………………….......………………iv List of Tables………………………….……………….……...…………..…...………….x List of Figures………………………………………………………..………..…………xii Chapter 1: Introduction………………………………….………….……………………..1 1.1. Statement of Problems…………………………...…………….….………………1 1.2. Demand of the Alternative Futures…………………………………..……………5 1.3. Purpose of Research…………………………………….…………...…………….9 1.4. Significance of Research…………………………………………………………10 1.5. Chapter Outline…………………………………………………..………………11 Chapter 2: Theoretical Perspectives of Futures Studies………………………..………..14 2.1. Introduction……………………………………..……………….………………14 2.2. Nature of the Future: Ontological and Epistemological Perspectives………...…15 2.3. Classification of Future Terminology……………………………...…..………...23 2.4. History of Futures Studies………………………………...……………………..32 2.5. Futures Studies: Art, Science, Or Politics……………………….……………….50 Chapter 3: General Foundations of Scenarios………………………..………………….56 3.1. Introduction………………………………………………….….……..……..….56 3.2. Definition and Nature of Scenarios………………………………………………58 3.3. Typology of Scenarios……………………………………...……………………63 3.4. Schools of Thoughts in Scenarios………………………………………………..67 3.5. Jim Dator’s Futures Visioning Process………………………..…....……………79 3.5.1. Components of a Futures Visioning Process……………..………….…….79 3.5.2. Four Generic Alternative Scenarios……………………………….………80 3.5.3. Framework of Five Scenarios…………………………..………………….82 3.6. Principles of Developing Scenarios……………………………....……..……….83 vi 3.6.1. Thinking the Unthinkable………………………………………….....……83 3.6.2. Novelty……………………………………………………...…………..…85 3.6.3. Multiple Perspectives……………………………………………..……….87 3.6.4. The Systems Approach…………………………………………..………..90 Chapter 4: Background on South Korea…………….…………………………………...94 4.1. Introduction……………………………………………….…….……..……..….94 4.2. Appreciating Past: Where Korea is Coming From…………………….…..…….96 4.2.1. Confucianism…………………….………………………………..…..…..96 4.2.2. Japanese Colonization…………………………………………..…..……..99 4.2.3. Anti-Communism………………………………………………………...101 4.2.4. Americanization………………………………………………………….103 4.3. Understanding Present: Where Korea is Now………………….………………106 4.3.1. Trends…………………………………………………………………….107 4.3.1.1. Population……………………………………………………....107 4.3.1.2. Economy………………………………………..………………110 4.3.1.3. Technology………….………………………………………….117 4.3.1.4. Culture………………………………………………………….124 4.3.1.5. Environment……………………………………………………128 4.3.1.6. Energy…………………………………………………………..130 4.3.1.7. Governance……..………………………………………………133 4.3.2. Emerging Issues……………………………………………………...…..136 4.3.2.1. Social Factors…………………………………………………..136 4.3.2.2. Technological Factors……………...……………………..…….137 4.3.2.3. Economic Factors……………………………………………....139 4.3.2.4. Environmental Factors…………………………………….……140 4.3.2.5. Political Factors……………...……………………………..…..141 4.4. Forecasting Aspects of the Futures: What Korea Takes into Future Challenges………………………...……………………………………………..144 4.4.1. Aging Society………………………………….…………………………144 4.4.2. The Rise of the Multi-Polar World……………………………………….147 vii 4.4.3. North Korean Challenges………………………………...………………149 4.4.4. Export Dependence………………………..…….……...………………..152 4.4.5. The Lack of Natural and Energy Resources……………………………..154 Chapter 5: Images of the Future in South Korea……………………………………….157 5.1. Introduction……………………………………………………….……………157 5.2. Images of the Future and Social Change……………………………………….158 5.3. Utopia and Dystopia……………………………………………………………160 5.4. Images of the Future I: Pre-Modern Era…………..…………………...……….162 5.5. Images of the Future II: Modern Era……………………………………….…..166 5.5.1. Continued Growth Image: “Become a Developed Country”….….……...167 5.5.2. Collapse Image: Apocalyptic Discourse………….………………..…….169 5.5.3. Discipline Society Image: Green Futures………..……………………….172 5.5.4. Transformation Society Image I: Advanced Information Society…...…..179 5.5.5. Transformation Society Image II: National Unification………..………..182 Chapter 6: Four Alternative Future Scenarios to 2030…………….…………..……….186 6.1. Introduction……………………………………………………….……………186 6.2. Continued Growth Scenario: The Republic of Samsung……………………….187 6.2.1. Background……………………………………………….……….……..187 6.2.2. Drivers of the Scenario……………….….…………….…………………187 6.2.3. The Path to 2030…………….….……..…………………………………189
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