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Home , 2011 Norway attacks, Murder of Jo Cox

TERRORISM FREQUENCY BRIEFING ON EXTREME RIGHT WING

Briefing In the wake of the massacre of 50 people displayed the intent to cause indiscriminate Background /01 by a white supremacist in on attacks against the public; however, targeted Scale of the threat /02 15 March, and rising levels of violence by attacks are assessed as more likely. While Drivers of XRW /03 right-wing extremists worldwide, Pool Re, XRW targeting of property (vandalism, arson Methodologies /03 on behalf of its Members, undertook etc.) is not uncommon, these incidents are Capabilities /04 research into the threat posed by right- typically investigated as hate crimes rather Targeting /04 wing to the UK, and the likely than acts of terrorism. While the latter have frequency and severity of attacks the potential to cause significant property Eden Stewart perpetrated by its adherents. damage, particularly where are Senior Analyst involved, the primary intent will be the While Islamist extremism remains the targeting of people. Therefore, XRW attacks primary terror threat to the United Kingdom are likely to cause greater intangible losses (UK), the threat from extreme right-wing than material damage. Targets will likely be (XRW) terrorism has both evolved and selected for their symbolic value, specifically increased in recent years. XRW terrorists their association with groups or individuals have been responsible for roughly a third to which the XRW are hostile; locations of successful attack and a quarter of affiliated with ethnic, religious or sexual disrupted plots since 2017. The growth minorities are particularly at risk. in XRW activity has put further pressure on counter-terrorism resources, and Background reciprocal violence between XRW and Prior to 2014, XRW activity in the UK was largely Islamist extremists is a possibility which confined to small, well-established groups, could exacerbate an already complicated typically with older memberships, which threat . The current capabilities presented a very low risk to national security. of XRW terrorists in Britain are relatively There were infrequent attacks by lone actors low, and unsophisticated attacks are most influenced by XRW , but in recent years, likely. However, attacks involving the threat from XRW has both evolved and explosives or firearms are a realistic increased. In June 2016, MP was probability. XRW terrorists could murdered by ultra-nationalist Thomas Mair, significantly augment their capabilities and in December that year, an XRW group, through the recruitment of serving or National Action (NA), was listed as a proscribed former members of the armed forces, organisation by the Home Office for the first or through connections with more time since 1940. The Islamist extremist attacks sophisticated overseas groups. of 2017 played to XRW narratives, and Mass casualty attacks by capable and exacerbated the threat posed by XRW terrorism. determined lone actors are also possible, This reciprocal dynamic was manifested in as seen with the 2019 Christchurch and Darren Osbourne’s attack on Muslims in 2011 attacks. However, strict gun Finsbury Park in July 2017. Since, there has control in the UK makes such attacks in been another attack by XRW terrorists, with Britain less likely. Some XRW actors have a further four plots disrupted. Extreme Right Wing

Scale of the threat Three of the eight successful attacks in IDEOLOGY OF INDIVIDUALS BY TYPE OF CHANNEL ENGAGEMENT Great Britain since 2016 have been carried out by XRW terrorists (37%), and of the 18 plots foiled since March 2017, four have involved 164 XRW actors (23%). These figures illustrate that while XRW terrorism poses a significant threat, 58 particularly to specific targets, it is not currently on the same scale as Islamist extremism. 2012/13 Nonetheless, the proscription of NA represented 103 the first time that XRW actors were organised in a way that could constitute a national security 46 threat. Exact figures on the number of individuals involved in or sympathetic to XRW terrorism are not available. However, the number of individuals in custody for terrorism-related offences holding XRW views increased over 226 five-fold between 2014 and 2018. Furthermore, there were significant increases in the number 75 of individuals being referred to Prevent (the Government’s counter-extremism programme) 2013/14 and in the number of reported hate crimes. 111 Neither of these is a reliable guide to levels of extremism, but they do suggest that events 50 since 2016 have increased ethnic tensions in the UK and created a more permissive environment for xenophobic or nationalist sentiment. Such conditions are likely conducive to the spread of XRW and the radicalisation and 359 mobilisation of sympathetic individuals. 75 2014/15 203 XRW TERRORISTS 48 HAVE BEEN

RESPONSIBLE FOR 819

ROUGHLY A THIRD 188 OF SUCCESSFUL 2015/16 ATTACKS AND 262 A QUARTER OF 98 DISRUPTED PLOTS

SINCE 2017 758

271 2016/17 180

123

Channel is part of the Prevent strategy. The process is a multi-agency approach 662 to identify and provide support to individuals who are at risk of being drawn into terrorism. 427 2017/18 Key 179 Islamist Discussed at Panel 174 Received Channel Support Extreme Right Wing Discussed at Panel Received Channel Support 0 200 400 600 800 1,000

Pool Re TERRORISM FREQUENCY Briefing 02 Extreme Right Wing

NUMBER OF PERSONS IN CUSTODY FOR TERRORISM-RELATED OFFENCES, BY IDEOLOGY

192 175 163 138 125 94

28 21 6 4 5 10

18 7 8 11 2 4

31 Dec 2013 31 Dec 2014 31 Dec 2015 31 Dec 2016 31 Dec 2017 31 Dec 2018

Key Islamist Extreme Right Wing Other

Drivers of XRW terrorism Most low complexity attacks result in single-digit These types of weapon could be used At present, XRW narratives in the UK focus casualty figures and minimal property damage in targeted or in conjunction heavily on issues of national identity and hostility (PD). However, the ease with which even with other methodologies but are unsuited to towards ethnic, religious and sexual pluralism. unskilled actors can mount attacks of this nature large-scale attacks. Connections with overseas Hostility towards the government and public does mean that higher levels of radicalisation XRW organisations could facilitate the acquisition institutions is also a common theme, driven and mobilisation of XRW sympathisers could of military-grade firearms. However, this would by the perception that these bodies are either quickly translate into more frequent attacks. also likely increase the risk of detection and indifferent or hostile to right-wing values and Furthermore, even unsophisticated would not obviate the difficulty of smuggling concerns. However, there is not a direct methodologies can cause large numbers the weapons into the UK. Therefore, while correlation between support for hard-right of casualties if well executed. the use of firearms (and other legal projectile views and engagement in XRW terrorism. weapons like crossbows) by XRW terrorists As with other offender types, the factors Explosives is a realistic possibility – as demonstrated which cause individuals to embrace extremist Since 1999, two XRW terrorists, acting alone, by the of Jo Cox MP in 2016 ideologies and undertake attack planning are have successfully constructed and detonated – marauding firearms attacks with assault varied and include personal grievances, contact IEDs. Furthermore, at least one of the four XRW weapons, as occurred in Norway in 2011 and with terrorist ‘entrepreneurs’ and domestic and plots foiled since 2017 involved the manufacture in 2019, are considered unlikely. international political developments and mental of explosives. Instructions for building IEDs are health problems. As highlighted by the available online and in other media and could CBRN Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation likely be easily accessed without attracting the XRW terrorists could attempt to acquire or in October 2018, a major influence on the attention of authorities. However, terrorists will manufacture chemical or biological material for mobilisation of XRW actors to begin attack likely face greater difficulty in clandestinely use in attacks. Ricin is the most likely biological planning is the occurrence of attacks by Islamist sourcing components and constructing a viable weapon to be employed; it is derived from extremists. While the number of successful device. Nonetheless, two of the seven attacks castor beans and is easy to manufacture relative Islamist attacks dropped in 2018, the threat has in the UK since March 2017 have involved to other biotoxins. In 2009, a neo-Nazi was not abated, and CT policing and MI5 continue Triacetone Peroxide-based IEDs. In both cases, arrested in Durham, having produced significant to work at capacity. Further successful Islamist lone actors were able to procure precursor quantities of Ricin for use in attacks. While the attacks are likely, and this would probably materials and construct devices undetected use of biological or chemical agents by XRW escalate the threat posed by XRW terrorism. (although in the case of the Parsons Green terrorists is unlikely to result in widespread attack, the device failed to detonate properly). loss of life due to the difficulty of effective Methodologies This suggests the construction and successful weaponisation of such material, the Low complexity attacks deployment of IEDs by XRW terrorists is a psychological effect of the use of biochemical XRW terrorists in the UK are most likely to realistic possibility. weapons would be considerable, and their use employ low complexity methodologies, involving could cause significant losses due to cordons the use of knives and vehicles as weapons. Firearms and decontamination costs, as well as loss Such attacks require little training or preparation The UK’s restrictive gun laws means the country of attraction. and are therefore less vulnerable to advanced has experienced proportionally fewer firearms detection by authorities, especially if mounted attacks than Europe or America. Acquiring any Blistering or choking agents could also potentially by individuals acting alone. Since 2017, there type of firearm on the black-market is difficult be manufactured by XRW actors; however, have been two successful attacks and at least without criminal connections in the UK, and given the relative complexity of manufacturing two foiled plots involving the use or planned research indicates that most illicit firearms are these agents, their use by XRW terrorists is use of low complexity methodologies by airguns, pistols and shotguns, many of which considered unlikely, as is the acquisition of XRW terrorists. are unreliable converted or reactivated weapons. nerve agents or radiological material.

Pool Re TERRORISM FREQUENCY Briefing 03 Extreme Right Wing

Capabilities Online instructional material Military connections Instructional material that can assist in the ATTACKS AGAINST The presence of serving or former members preparation of attacks remains widely available of the armed forces could significantly increase online and through other media. XRW terrorists CROWDED the latent capabilities of XRW actors in two ways. have previously used such guides to Firstly, martial skills, particularly those relating manufacture IEDs, and several recently PLACES ARE to firearms and explosives but also planning, prosecuted members of NA were found to be in reconnaissance and operational security, would possession of bomb-making manuals and other UNLIKELY likely increase the ability of terrorists to plan and guidance on attack planning. While instructional execute more sophisticated attacks. Secondly, material can significantly increase the tradecraft TO LEAD TO connections to armed forces personnel could of terrorist actors, particularly regarding the facilitate the acquisition of military-grade manufacture of explosives, the extent to which SIGNIFICANT weapons, either through directly it represents a threat is dependent on the ability misappropriating weapons or through coercing of terrorists to successfully follow guidance and MATERIAL or inducing personnel responsible for inventory acquire precursors or other equipment management. Inventory controls in the armed without being detected. DAMAGE (UNLESS forces are assessed to be robust, however, there are several recent examples of serving Targeting LARGE IEDS soldiers illicitly stockpiling military firearms and Police, military and Government targets explosives. The use of military-grade weapons, In the UK, there has been one successful WERE EMPLOYED), particularly in trained hands, could result in attack and one known plot against police, a significant escalation of the threat. military or Government targets by XRW terrorists. AND BUSINESS Both cases involved the targeting of a female Overseas extremist travel MP (Jo Cox and Rosie Cooper INTERRUPTION Extremist travel is a well-established means respectively), suggesting left-wing politicians are for Islamist offenders to establish links with preferred targets for XRW terrorists. There have COSTS WOULD overseas terror groups and undertake training. also been several attacks on left-wing politicians To a much lesser degree, this behaviour has in Europe in recent years (although not all were VARY been mirrored by British XRW actors. NA treated as terrorism by local authorities). activists have cultivated ties with European CONSIDERABLY and American XRW organisations. Links with There have been no XRW attacks or known overseas groups could facilitate the exchange plots against Government facilities in the UK. DEPENDING of tradecraft, members, and potentially (although However, notable overseas examples include not likely) weapons. There are documented the 1995 Oklahoma bombing and the 2011 ON THE TIME connections between NA members and XRW bombing. The aspiration to target Government paramilitaries in Ukraine. While these are not facilities is likely to depend partly on the extent AND PLACE believed to have resulted in meaningful to which the target is perceived to be ‘legitimate’. exchanges of tradecraft or materiel, there is a Government personnel or departments engaged OF THE ATTACK realistic possibility of British XRW actors being in particular activities are more at risk than embedded with extremist paramilitaries to gain others. For instance, Government agencies battlefield experience which could be used in responsible for migration and refugees have attack planning on their return to the UK. been recently targeted in Europe.

Criminal connections While traditional figures of authority like the Another means by which XRW terrorists could police are less likely to be targeted by XRW acquire sophisticated weaponry is through links actors, the police’s role in counter-extremism to organised criminal groups (OCGs). At present, could make them possible targets. The armed Property OCGs in the UK are believed to be broadly forces, as a source of national pride, are unlikely XRW actors in Britain have previously targeted unwilling to supply firearms to terrorists, to be targeted by XRW actors in the current property; most incidents have involved the given the potential negative impact of doing environment. targeting of religious sites or businesses so on their business interests. However, there associated with minorities in arson attacks. is a risk that terrorists may be able to acquire Crowded places While further such incidents are probable, they firearms through criminal networks, and, Crowded places are unlikely to be targeted have thus far been investigated by police as hate as demonstrated by the MP, for indiscriminate mass casualty attacks crimes rather than acts of terrorism. The use of the acquisition of illegal firearms by XRW actors unless they have some totemic significance. improvised explosive devices by XRW actors is possible. Furthermore, Europol has raised Likely targets include places of worship with the intent to damage property may be concerns about the links established between (as seen with the 2019 Christchurch and 2017 treated as terrorism, but it is assessed as European groups and outlaw motorcycle gangs Quebec mosque shootings), and hospitality unlikely that XRW actors have the aspiration to (OMCGs) involved in the trafficking of firearms. and entertainment establishments affiliated cause large-scale material damage without loss European OMCGs may have an ideological with sexual minorities (1999 Admiral Duncan of life. Indeed, in Britain, such tactics appear affinity with XRW groups, and British terrorists bombing and 2017 Barrow plot). Busy areas unique to dissident/militant republican groups. could potentially exploit this to acquire in ethnic minority-majority neighbourhoods are sophisticated firearms smuggled into the UK. also likely targets, as seen with the 1999 London Individuals nail bombing campaign and the 2017 Finsbury Individuals have previously been targeted by Park attack. XRW actors in Britain, notably the 2019 Stanwell NA ACTIVISTS attack and the murder of Mohammed Saleem Other possible crowded locations which could in 2013. Serious violent crime (murder or HAVE CULTIVATED be targeted are those hosting demonstrations attempted murder) committed as part of an by the political left (2017 Charlottesville attack) XRW agenda would normally be investigated TIES WITH or festivals associated with ethnic or sexual as terrorist offences, while lesser offences minorities (2015 Jerusalem gay pride parade would likely be classed as hate crimes rather EUROPEAN AND attack). Attacks against crowded places are than acts of terrorism. Aside from politicians, unlikely to lead to significant material damage journalists, campaigners and community AMERICAN XRW (unless large IEDs were employed), and leaders are assessed as the most likely business interruption costs would vary individuals to be targeted by XRW terrorists; ORGANISATIONS considerably depending on the time and however, individuals could also be targeted place of the attack. on their personal characteristics.

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