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2013 Annual Report

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2013 Annual Report 2013 Management Report 2013 Management Report Attijariwafa bank, a limited company with a capital of MAD 2,035,272,260. Head office : 2, boulevard Moulay Youssef, Casablanca. Approved as a credit institution by order of the Minister of Finance and Privatization n° 2269-03 of the 22 December 2003 as amended and supplemented. Trade Register n° 333. Tel : +212 22 29 88 88 - www.attijariwafabank.com MAnAgeMent report MANAGEMENT REPORT 2013 MANAGEMENT REPORT 5 2013 MAnAgeMent report CONTENTS p.6 p.30 eConoMIC enVIronMent gLoBAL rISK MAnAgeMent p.18 BAnKIng AnD FInAnCIAL p.56 enVIronMent reSoLUtIonS oF tHe orDInArY generAL MeetIng p.21 oF SHAreHoLDerS AnALYSIS oF BUSIneSS ACtIVItY AnD reSULtS oF AttIJArIWAFA BAnK p.58 ConSoLIDAteD FInAnCIAL StAteMentS p.23 net InCoMe ALLocatIon p.90 pArent-CoMpAnY FInAnCIAL StAteMentS p.23 BUSIness actIVItY AnD reSULtS For p.114 MAIn SUBSIDIArIeS ContACtS MANAGEMENT REPORT 2013 5 MAnAgeMent report Economic environment World: Moderate economic growth in 20131 the main drivers of global growth. Their GDP is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2013E and 2.2% in 2014P. In 2013, global economic activity continued at a moderate pace. According to the International Monetary Fund, the global In contrast, emerging countries experienced a slowdown economy is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2013 E and 3.6% in in business activity. These markets will be required to find 2014P, compared with 3.2% in 2012. solutions to stimulate growth and carry out vital structural The year 2013 was also notable for a change in growth reforms. The GDP of emerging countries is expected to grow momentum. Developed countries began to recover and became by 4.7% in 2013E, compared with 5.0% in 2012 and 6.2% in 2011. Quarterly GDP growth in main OECD member countries (change year on year) Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- 2012* 2013* 2014* 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 World - - - - - - - - 3.2 3.0 3.6 Eurozone -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 -1.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.5 -0.7 -0.5 1.2 France 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 Germany 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.3 -0.3 0.5 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.5 1.7 Spain -1.2 -1.6 -1.7 -2.1 -1.9 -1.6 -1.1 -0.2 -1.6 -1.2 0.9 United Kingdom 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.7 1.8 2.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 United States 3.3 2.8 3.1 2.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.8 1.9 2.8 Japan 3.1 3.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 1.3 2.4 2.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 Source: OECD (*) : IMF The growth outlook for the American economy was revised In China, GDP growth in 2013E (7.7%) was unchanged from its down in 2013E, to 1.9% (2.8% in 2012). However, the continuing level in 2012. Nonetheless there have been signs of recovery robustness of private demand-combined with recovery in among the BRIC countries since the third quarter of 2013. financial, property, and job markets-should boost growth to 2.8% in 2014P. In addition, the ISM manufacturing index, which International trade in goods and services in 2013: stood at 57 points in December 2013, indicates expending International trade figures reflect the slow pace of global economic activity. business activity. Trade volumes rose by 3.0% in 2013 E versus The eurozone economy remained in recession for the second 2.8% in 2012. consecutive year, mainly because of high public debt. Although the eurozone’s GDP growth declined by 0.5% in 2013 E (−0.7% Inflation and oil prices: P in 2012), it is expected to recover gradually, to 1.2% in 2014 . • Global inflationary pressures were moderate in 2013 E and Signs of improvement have already appeared in the eurozone’s are expected to remain so in 2014P. Consumer price inflation core countries, such as France (0.3% in 2013 E and 1.0% in in developed countries amounted to 1.4% in 2013 E (1.5% 2014P) and Germany (0.5% in 2013E and 1.7% in 2014P). The forecast for 2014P) and to 5.8% in 2013E (5.5% forecast for IMF has also confirmed the robustness of the British economy, 2014P) in emerging and developing countries. Slower growth whose GDP stood at 1.8% in 2013E and by 2.9% in 2014P. The and declining commodity prices should ease pressure on oil PMI composite index for the eurozone stood at 52.1 points on prices, which nonetheless remain supported by inadequate December 31, 2013, compared with 51.7 points in November. capacity and weak currencies. Regarding monetary policy, in early May 2013 the ECB • According to the IMF, the average oil price was $104.10 per lowered its refinancing rate by 25 basis points, to 0.50%. In barrel in 2013, compared with $105.00 in 2012. Average prices early November, as protection against deflationary risk and are estimated at approximately $104.20 per barrel in 2014 P. to stimulate the eurozone economy, the ECB again lowered its refinancing rate, to 0.25%, a record low. Euro/dollar exchange rate In Japan, the economy expanded vigorously, by 1,5% in 2013 E, • On foreign exchange markets, the euro continued to strengthen compared with 1.4% in 2012. This growth was underpinned by in 2013, to $1.33 at December 31, 2013. This rise of 4.7% year a weaker yen and by strengthening external demand. on year is attributable to worries about the US budget and the In emerging economies in 2013E, business activity slowed Fed’s monetary policy. by 0.3 points, to 4.7%. Russian economic growth in 2013 E was relatively modest, at 1.3%, compared with 3.4% in 2012. (1) - Source : IMF, BM, DPEG/BAM (2)- Institute for Supply Management (3)- Purchasing Managers' Index 6 African economies: overview and outlook GDP growth by African region (%) E Despite a generally unfavorable global economy, the African 2012 2013 Africa economy had a good year overall in 2013. 6.6 % 4.8 % Central Africa 5.7 % 5.7 % Economic growth in Africa should reach 4.8% in 2013, compared EMCCA 5.5 % 3.7 % with 6.6% in 2012. Excluding Libya, economic growth in Africa East Africa 4.5 % 5.2 % should amount to 4.5% in 2013, compared with 4.2% in 2012. North Africa 9.5 % 3.9 % In terms of demand, domestic consumption plays a vital role Southern Africa 3.7 % 4.1 % in numerous African countries. This momentum nevertheless West Africa 6.6 % 6.7 % cannot fully compensate for the negative effects of the global WAEMU 5.8 % 6.0 % crisis on external demand. Private consumption and both private Source: AfDB and public investment often boost domestic demand. Inflation contained at 7.4% in 2013E Private consumption is driven by higher revenues in a number For Africa as a whole, inflation should amount to 7.4% in 2013E, of sectors, as well as by the positive trend of remittances and by compared with 9.1% in 2012. This trend can be attributed to increased recourse to consumer loans. Private investment, often stabilized oil and food prices. directed at the oil and mining sectors, attracts inflow from direct In addition, most countries with moderate inflation are members investments. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is forecast to reach of a monetary union such as the West African Economic and $56.6 billion in 2013, compared with $49.7 billion the previous Monetary Union (WAEMU) and the Central African Economic year. However, FDI will go mainly to large economies such as and Monetary Community (CAEMC). Their currencies are those of South Africa, Nigeria, and Morocco, while the rest of pegged to the euro. the continent continues to depend heavily on subsidies and aid. Inflationary pressures in 2013 nevertheless varied from country On the supply side, agriculture and services are the main growth to country. drivers. This is especially true in countries rich in natural Inflation growth by African region (%) resources such as oil production and mining. 2012 2013E Economic growth in Africa estimated at 4.8% in 2013E, Africa 9.1 % 7.4 % compared with 6.6% in 2012 Central Africa 4.4 % 3.5 % EMCCA 3.5 % 2.5 % In north Africa, political transitions have been slower than East Africa 21.4 % 10.9 % expected, while the depressed economic environment prevalent North Africa 7.2 % 7.1 % in the European Union has delayed economic recovery in some Southern Africa 6.5 % 6.5 % countries. North African GDP growth in 2013E is forecast at West Africa 9.8 % 8.0 % approximately 3.9%. The previous year’s 9.5% growth was WAEMU 2.4 % 1.6 % due to the extraordinary 96% growth in Libya between 2011 Source: AfDB and 2012 following resumption of oil production and export. Excluding Libya, economic growth in the region was 4.5% in North Africa (excluding Egypt) 2013, compared with 4.2% in 2012. West Africa remains the most vibrant region in Africa and is expected to maintain steady GDP growth of 6.7% in 2013E, compared with 6.6% in 2012. This performance is attributable to growth in the oil, mining, agriculture, and service sectors, but also to strong demand driven by consumption and investments.
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