Asia COVID-19 & Vaccine Tracker
27 August 2021
Free to View Asia COVID-19 & Vaccine Tracker Economics - Asia
First to normalise
Asia is seeing a diverging story; some economies are easing Yun Liu Economist restrictions while others are maintaining strict lockdowns The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Given vaccine shortages, economies are seeking to diversify Frederic Neumann their vaccine sources Co-Head of Asian Economics Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Despite Delta variant risks, the BoK is the first Asian central bank to start its normalisation process amid financial stability Maitreyi Das Associate concerns Bangalore
Delta divergence While the outbreak of the Delta variant remains the dominant concern in Asia, the region appears to be showing a diverging story. For one, mainland China has largely contained the wave, as daily cases have fallen to single digits. Nanjing, where the latest wave started, resumed commercial flights on 26 August after its airport has been closed for a month. In ASEAN, Thailand and Indonesia have seen daily case numbers start to moderate, with the latter easing restrictions in many areas of Java from 24 August. Restaurants and shopping malls are allowed to operate at 25% and 50% capacity, respectively. That being said, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia continue to see a surge in cases, leading to a continuation of already stringent curbs. After 1.5 months of lockdown, Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) has further tightened its restrictions by requesting its residents to “stay where they are” from 23 August, as the city remains the epicentre of the current wave. Elsewhere, New Zealand, which has low inoculation rates, has extended its national lockdown until 31 August, leading to a significant decline in mobility. Vaccine diversification For those Asian economies facing vaccine shortages, many are looking to diversify their source of vaccines, as part of their mass vaccination efforts. Indonesia has approved Sputnik V for emergency use while Taiwan has started to roll out its own vaccine, Medigen, which requires two jabs 28 days apart. While the latest wave is largely contained in Taiwan, its vaccination progress, particularly its full vaccination rate, lags that of its peers (Chart 2). On top of Taiwan’s importation of 10m doses of vaccines and a recent 36m order of the Moderna vaccine in July, Medigen is likely to add a further 5m doses to its vaccine supply (CNN, 23 August), which is enough to fully vaccinate its entire population, although the delivery time for Moderna is unclear. Monetary normalisation Given mounting growth risks, most central banks in the region have maintained their accommodative monetary stance. That being said, the Bank of Korea (BoK) is the first Asian central bank that has kick-started its normalisation process. Despite rising COVID- 19 cases, it delivered a 25bp rate hike to 0.75% on 26 August, as the central bank looks through near-term COVID-19 volatilities and is determined to address financial stability concerns. However, we expect the next rate hike to be pushed into 3Q22 given slower- than-expected growth and a complicated calendar. We expect its policy rate to be at 1.0% by the end of 2022.
This is an abridged version of a report by the same title published on 27-Aug-21. Please contact your HSBC representative or email [email protected] for more information.
Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:
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Asia COVID-19 and Vaccine Tracker
Chart 1: Total confirmed vaccine doses by country and territory (% of population)
Most economies have % of population secured enough vaccine 600 doses to vaccinate at least 500 50% of their population 400
300
200
100
0 AU NZ SK JN TA HK MA SI TH IN PH ID VN BA *CH Oxford university Pfizer Janssen (J &J) Moderna Sinovac Novavax Gamaleya Research CanSino Biologics Bharat Biotech Sinopharm Corbevax Others
Note: *CH – Mainland China. Duke University’s data do not include domestic supply for mainland China (not made publicly available). Source: Duke University Health Innovation Center, HSBC
Chart 2: Percentage of people who received at least one dose and were fully vaccinated
90 Singapore and Mainland 78.0 76.3 China lead Asia in terms of 80 vaccination progress 70 57.1 56.5 60 52.8 52.6 51.3 50 43.0 39.7 40 34.3 32.8 28.1 30 21.1 16.0 16.0 20 10.2 10 0 SI *CH MA SL HK JN SK AU TA NZ IN TH ID PH VN BA People vaccinated per 100 Fully Vaccinated per 100
Note: *CH – Mainland China data is our estimated share of people vaccinated from total number of doses given. As of 12 August, 54% of the population is fully vaccinated. Source: Our World in Data, HSBC
Chart 3: Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases per one million population
Number of confirmed COVID- 19 cases (per one million No of confirmed cases % 120,000 6.0 people) in Asia remains far below those of Western 100,000 5.0 economies 80,000 4.0
60,000 3.0
40,000 2.0
20,000 1.0
0 0.0 US UK MA IN SL PH TH ID SI JN BA SK VN AU HK TA NZ *CH Cases per m Mortality rate
Note: *CH – Mainland China. Source: CEIC, HSBC
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Asia COVID-19 and Vaccine Tracker
Chart 4: Daily vaccination rate per economy (7-day moving average) 7 dma 7 dma Vaccination rates in South 14,000,000 900,000 Korea continued to gain pace 12,000,000 800,000 700,000 10,000,000 600,000 8,000,000 500,000 6,000,000 400,000 300,000 4,000,000 200,000 2,000,000 100,000 0 0 CH* IN JN ID SK MA TH VN PH BA AU SL HK TA NZ SI Latest daily doses 1 week ago Latest daily doses 1 week ago
Note: *CH – Mainland China. Source: Our World in Data, HSBC
Chart 5: Daily vaccine rate per million of population
Per m South Korea and Malaysia 18,000 lead Asia in daily doses per 16,000 million population 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 SK MA AU JN NZ CH* SL HK TH SI VN ID IN PH TA BA Latest daily doses per m of population 1 week ago
Note: *CH – Mainland China. Source: Our World in Data, HSBC
Chart 6: Projected timeline, given the pace of daily vaccination, of reaching 70% population vaccination rates At the current daily vaccination rate, when might SI 70% of the population be fully *CH MA vaccinated? SK JN HK AU SL NZ TH ID IN VN PH TA BA Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 May-22 Aug-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23
Note: *CH – Mainland China. Source: Our World in Data, HSBC
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COVID-19 in Asia
Chart 7: Indonesia Chart 8: Malaysia
Confirmed cases Malay sia Daily change Daily cases continue to Confirmed cases Indonesia Daily change 4,500,000 60,000 1,800,000 25,000 moderate in Indonesia, albeit 4,000,000 54,000 1,600,000 at an elevated level; 3,500,000 48,000 1,400,000 20,000 Malaysia’s daily cases 3,000,000 42,000 1,200,000 36,000 15,000 remain above 20k 2,500,000 1,000,000 30,000 2,000,000 800,000 24,000 10,000 1,500,000 18,000 600,000 1,000,000 12,000 400,000 5,000 500,000 6,000 200,000 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
Chart 9: Philippines Chart 10: Singapore
Confirmed cases Philippines Daily change Confirmed cases Singapore Daily change Daily new cases in the 2,000,000 20,000 70,000 1,600 Philippines is on a steep rise 1,800,000 18,000 60,000 1,400 again; while it is moderating 1,600,000 16,000 50,000 1,200 in Singapore 1,400,000 14,000 1,000 1,200,000 12,000 40,000 1,000,000 10,000 800 30,000 800,000 8,000 600 600,000 6,000 20,000 400 400,000 4,000 200,000 2,000 10,000 200 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
Chart 11: Thailand Chart 12: Vietnam
Confirmed cases Vietnam Daily change Thailand’s daily cases have Confirmed cases Thailand Daily change 1,200,000 25,000 400,000 14,400 started to fall; Vietnam’s new 350,000 12,800 cases remain above 10k 1,000,000 20,000 300,000 11,200 800,000 9,600 15,000 250,000 8,000 600,000 200,000 6,400 10,000 150,000 400,000 4,800 100,000 200,000 5,000 3,200 50,000 1,600 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
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COVID-19 in Asia
The Delta outbreak has been Chart 13: Mainland China Chart 14: India contained in mainland China; while new cases stabilised in Confirmed cases Mainland China Daily change Confirmed cases India Daily change India 120,000 6,000 36,000,000 480,000 32,000,000 420,000 100,000 5,000 28,000,000 360,000 80,000 4,000 24,000,000 300,000 20,000,000 60,000 3,000 240,000 16,000,000 180,000 40,000 2,000 12,000,000 8,000,000 120,000 20,000 1,000 4,000,000 60,000 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
Chart 15: Australia Chart 16: New Zealand
Confirmed cases Australia Daily change Confirmed cases New Zealand Daily change New cases continue to surge 50,000 1,000 3,000 100 in Australia; while New 2,500 Zealand also saw a rise in 40,000 800 80 cases 2,000 30,000 600 60 1,500 20,000 400 40 1,000 10,000 200 500 20 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
Chart 17: Japan Chart 18: South Korea
Japan continues to see a Confirmed cases Japan Daily change Confirmed cases South Korea Daily change 1,400,000 27,000 280,000 2,400 surge in daily cases; while 24,000 1,200,000 240,000 2,000 new cases seem to be 21,000 1,000,000 200,000 moderating in Korea 18,000 1,600 800,000 15,000 160,000 1,200 600,000 12,000 120,000 9,000 800 400,000 80,000 6,000 400 200,000 3,000 40,000 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
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Vaccine Data and Timelines
Chart 19: Potential vaccine coverage by population (confirmed doses + doses under negotiation)
Potential vaccine coverage % of population 500% 478% not yet 100% of population 450% for few Asian economies 389% 400% 350% 300% 250% 172% 170% 164% 200% 150% 145% 122% 150% 106% 100% 96% 83% 81% 100% 64% 34% 50% 0% AU NZ SK TA JN HK MA VN IN SI SL PH TH ID BA Potential vaccine coverage
Source: Duke University Health Innovation Center, HSBC
Chart 20: Share of confirmed vaccine dose purchases vs. doses still under negotiation
A large portion of Vietnam’s India total vaccine commitment Indonesia Japan has not yet been finalised Vietnam and is still under negotiation Australia China* Philippines South Korea Malaysia Taiwan Thailand New Zealand Hong Kong % - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Confirmed dose purchases Dose purchases still under negotiation Donations
Note: China* – Mainland China. Source: Duke University Health Innovation Center, HSBC
Chart 21: Vaccination timelines to reach 70% vaccination rate (analyst estimates)
Most economies in Asia VN could reach 70% vaccination TH TA rates by 1H22e, but it may SL take longer for ASEAN KR SI PH MA JN ID IN HK CH* NZ AU Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Timeline to vaccinate 70% of the population
Note: *CH – Mainland China. Source: HSBC projections extrapolated from current rates of vaccination and vaccine supply.
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ASEAN COVID-19 Trends
Chart 22: Daily new COVID-19 cases
Daily new COVID-19 cases in New cases ASEAN remain elevated as 120,000 the Delta variant spreads 100,000 through the region, but cases in Indonesia have declined 80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0 Aug-20 Sep-14 Oct-09 Nov-03 Nov-28 Dec-23 Jan-17 Feb-11 Mar-08 Apr-02 Apr-27 May-22 Jun-16 Jul-11 Aug-05 Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Source: CEIC, HSBC
Chart 23: Oxford Stringency Index time series
Index Index Government containment 100 100 measures persist across ASEAN, with a downtick in 80 80 Singapore 60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0 01-Jan 01-Mar 01-May 01-Jul 01-Sep 01-Nov 01-Jan 01-Mar 01-May 01-Jul Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Source: CEIC, HSBC
Chart 24: Number of new fatalities per day
Daily fatalities in ASEAN No of new deaths remain elevated 3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 Mar 20 May 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Source: CEIC, HSBC
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Economic Indicators
Chart 25: Ground traffic trends in capital cities
Ground traffic in key ASEAN cities remain depressed, 10 given the ongoing strict 0 restrictions -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 Bangkok Kuala Jakarta New Delhi Tokyo Manila Singapore Taipei Hong Kong Lumpur Change in % from peak traffic hrs in 2019
Source: TomTom, HSBC
Chart 26: Air traffic trends across Asia
Air traffic has remained broadly stable across Asia No of flights tracked 500 from the previous month, 450 except in Beijing and Tokyo 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Bangkok Colombo Hanoi Kuala Manila Taiwan Singapore Seoul Jakarta Hong Beijing London Tokyo Delhi New York Lumpur Kong Latest 1m ago
Source: Flight Tracker, HSBC
Chart 27: Oxford Stringency Index
Government stringency Index measures remain broadly 90 unchanged in Asia, except in 80 Thailand where more provinces have been 70 included in the “Dark Red Zone” 60
50
40
30 MA SL CH* PH VN TH IN ID HK JN SK SI Latest 1 m ago
Note: *CH – Mainland China. Source: CEIC, HSBC
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Economic Indicators
Chart 28: Average non-residential mobility (recent vs. one month ago)
SL NZ VN MA TH PH AU TA JN ID KR SI IN HK US 20 3 6 10 1 0 -10 -3 -20 -12 -17 -15 -30 -23 -15 -22 -40 -30 -50 -36 -60 -59 -70 -61 -80 -67
21-Aug 1 month ago
Note: Comparison to Google baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the five-week period of 3 January 2020-6 February 2020. Source: CEIC, HSBC
Chart 29: Mobility data: Average non-residential COVID-19 tracker Average Non-residential mobility
Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Asia AU NZ JN HK IN ID KR MA PH SI SL TA TH VN Elsewhere US UK Key (Amount of time spent in each location vs baseline levels) Low High
Note: Comparison to Google baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the five-week period of 3 January 2020-6 February 2020. Source: CEIC, HSBC
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Disclosure appendix
Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the covering analyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any other views or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Yun Liu and Frederic Neumann
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