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AMM Jan 2020.Pub The Alphaliner Monthly Monitor contains essential liner market information and is updated on a monthly basis with the most recent data. Information is given in good faith but without guarantee. Alphaliner does not accept any liability for any errors or omission or opinion. ALPHALINER Please refer to our full user terms and copyrights at: hps://www.alphaliner.com/resources/Alphaliner_Terms.pdf Please send your feedback, comments and questions to Monthly Monitor January 2020 [email protected] Web: www.alphaliner.com | E-mail: [email protected] | Subscription Enquiries: [email protected] C ONTENTS Cellular Fleet as at 1 January 2020…..………….. 1 Market Monitor Capacity vs Throughput Growth….…………..…... 1 Charter Rate Trend/Rate Indices………………….. 1 Cellular Fleet Breakdown…………………………….. 2 Liner Fleet as at 1 January 2020 Cellular Fleet Growth vs Global Throughput Orderbook Breakdown…………………………………. 2 Cellular Fleet Age Breakdown………………………. 3 No. of liner ships incl. non‐cellular 6,149 units Fleet Capacity (year end) Forecast Fleet Profile by Size Range…………………………... 3 % Annual Capacity Growth % Global Throughput Growth Overaged Fleet Profile…………………………………. 3 Newbuilding Delivery Projecons………………... 4 Total liner capacity (teu) 23.613 Mteu Cellular Fleet Projecons……………………………... 4 25 16.0% 14.4% 13.8% Year‐on‐year increase % 3.9% 14.1% 13.4% 13.2% 12.8% Deleons……………………………………………………... 5 13.0% 12.2% Demolion Prices…………………………………………. 5 12.3% 8.6% World Fleet/Average vessel size…………………... 5 No. of cellular ships 5,337 units 20 8.3% TEU Millions 5.5% 6.3% Deliveries by Quarter/Month…..………………….. 6 6.7% 5.8% 6.0% 5.9% 12.5% Recent Deliveries……………………………………….... 6 Total cellular capacity (teu) 23.228 Mteu 4.0% 10.8% 3.5% 2.8% 10.1% 9.7% 2.7% 9.1% 9.3% 10.0% Cellular Orderbook ……………………………………... 7 8.9% 15 7.9% Orderbook‐to‐Fleet Rao…………………………….. 7 Year‐on‐year increase % 4.0% 5.4% 5.7% 5.1% 5.2% 4.7% Orders Placed by Quarter…………………………..... 7 3.7% 3.7% Chartered fleet % 55.7% 2.5% 2.1% 2.2% Recent Orders……………………………………………... 7 1.8% Orderbook by Shipyard…………….………………….. 8 10 1.4% VLCS Watch………………………………………………..... 9 Cellular fleet as % of liner total 98.4% ALPHALINER VLCS Deployment by Carrier……………………..…. 9 % of cellular fleet idle 6.1% VLCS Fleet by Year of Delivery………………..……. 9 5 VLCS Deliveries by Shipyard…………………………. 9 Orderbook 2.424 Mteu ‐8.2% Charter Rates & Fixtures……………...……….…….. 10 Sales & Purchase…………………………………………. 11 Orderbook as % of current fleet 10.4% 0 Demolions……………………………………………….... 12 Top 30 Carriers…………………………………………..… 13 Deliveries Jan‐Dec 2019 148 units/1,059,381 teu Main Carriers Fleet Breakdown by Size………... 14 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (F)2020 Main Carriers Fleet Unit Breakdown….………... 15 Deleons Jan‐Dec 2019 114 units/207,518 teu (F) 2021 Main Carriers Orderbook Unit Breakdown…... 16 Main Carriers NB Delivery Schedule……………... 17 New Orders Jan‐Dec 2019 97 units/783,901 teu 10‐Year Alphaliner Charter Rate Index and Freight Rate Indices Main Carriers YoY Capacity Growth……………… 18 160 1,600 ) Top 30 Non‐Operang Owners ……………………. 19 Alphaliner Charter Index East‐West Trade Deployment………………………. 20 Charter Rate Trend CCFI (Monthly average) East‐West Capacity Watch…………………………... 20 140 SCFI (Monthly average) 1,400 Trade Capacity by Carrier……………………………... 21 Dec 19 Nov 19 Change Size Trend Trade Demand/Ulisaon……….…………………... 22 120 1,200 Carrier Capacity by Trade…………………………….. 23 $/day $/day % Global Capacity Deployment……………………….. 24 (Jan 2000 = 100) Evoluon of capacity deployed by Trade……... 25 8,500 teu 30,000 30,000 0% 100 1,000 Ships assignment by Trade…………………………… 26 Idle Capacity Tracker…………………………………... 27 5,600 teu 19,000 20,000 ‐5% SCFI 16 Oct 2009 = 1,000 80 800 ( Container Freight Watch……………………………... 28 Index (CCFI Jan 1998 = 1,000) Bunker Watch……………………………………………... 29 4,000 teu 13,500 13,250 +2% Alphaliner Charter Rate Index LNG/Scrubber Watch ‐ Fleet Breakdown………. 30 60 600 NEW LNG/Scrubber Watch ‐ Carrier Breakdown…… 31 2,500 teu 10,000 10,250 ‐2% Top 30 Ports………………………………………………... 32 40 400 China Ports Watch……………………………………….. 32 1,700 teu 8,300 8,500 ‐2% China & Shanghai Containerised Freight Global Port Throughput….……………………………. 33 Trade Summary: Asia‐EC North America..…..... 34 1,000 teu 6,200 6,100 +2% 20 200 Carrier Financial Performance……………............ 35 Note : Rates based on 6‐12 month fixtures Carriers’ Share Price/Liner Equity Index.………. 36 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Page 1 © Copyright Alphaliner 1999-2020 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited ALPHALINER Monthly Monitor January 2020 Cellular Fleet Breakdown As at 1 Jan 2020 Current All cellular ships Of which chartered Fleet Capacity Breakdown by TEU size range TEU Units TEU Units TEU % Chrt 18,000‐24,000 115 2,311,433 48 983,490 42.5% 100‐999 18,000‐24,000 3% 15,200‐17,999 42 703,681 9 153,489 21.8% 1,000‐1,499 10% * 12,500‐15,199 NPX 252 3,469,931 148 2,041,110 58.8% 4% 15,200‐17,999 1,500‐1,999 3% 10,000‐12,499 164 1,760,937 110 1,169,788 66.4% 4% 7,500‐9,999 480 4,235,592 273 2,421,749 57.2% 2,000‐2,999 7% 12,500‐15,199 5,100‐7,499 448 2,791,383 246 1,522,263 54.5% NPX 4,000‐5,099 631 2,859,792 362 1,631,157 57.0% 3,000‐3,999 4% 15% 3,000‐3,999 252 878,393 155 544,982 62.0% 2,000‐2,999 675 1,723,100 420 1,074,536 62.4% 4,000‐5,099 10,000‐12,499 1,500‐1,999 601 1,034,715 321 557,009 53.8% 12% 8% 1,000‐1,499 709 817,562 417 489,092 59.8% 500‐999 786 582,565 431 332,109 57.0% 5,100‐7,499 7,500‐9,999 100‐499 182 59,413 53 17,077 28.7% 12% 18% TOTAL 5,337 23,228,497 2,993 12,937,851 55.7% Note : The chartered fleet counts only ships chartered out by non-operating owners to operators. It excludes 73 ships for 119,099 teu which are owned by owner-operators but are chartered out to another operator, either for operational reasons (vessel exchange within alliances/partnerships) or are surplus to their owners’ requirements. Cellular Orderbook Fleet Breakdown As at 1 Jan 2020 Size Range All cellular ships Of which chartered Orderbook/ TEU Units TEU Units TEU % Chrt Exisng % Orderbook Fleet Capacity Breakdown by TEU size range 18,000‐24,000 37 860,900 1 23,756 2.8% 37.2% 15,200‐17,999 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% * 12,500‐15,199 NPX 47 689,374 29 419,374 60.8% 19.9% 10,000‐12,499 34 402,350 26 306,350 76.1% 22.8% <1,999 6% 18,000‐24,000 7,500‐9,999 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 36% 5,100‐7,499 2 10,590 2 10,590 0.0% 0.4% 2,000‐2,999 11% 4,000‐5,099 1 4,011 0 0 0.0% 0.1% 3,000‐3,999 3,000‐3,999 13 39,788 1 3,100 7.8% 4.5% 2% 2,000‐2,999 106 260,933 35 86,866 33.3% 15.1% 5,100‐7,499 1,500‐1,999 57 102,841 44 79,136 76.9% 9.9% 0% 1,000‐1,499 41 47,366 9 11,340 23.9% 5.8% 10,000‐12,499 12,500‐15,199 500‐999 9 5,824 0 0 0.0% 1.0% 17% 100‐499 2 420 0 0 0.0% 0.7% NPX TOTAL 349 2,424,397 147 940,512 38.8% 10.4% 28% * Note on Neo-Panamax (NPX) ships - Ships of 13,300 to 15,199 teu with beams of 49,00 to 51.25m (revised neo-Panamax gauge) are counted in the revised 12,500-15,199 teu segment from 1 Jun 2018. Page 2 © Copyright Alphaliner 1999-2020 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited ALPHALINER Monthly Monitor January 2020 Cellular Fleet Age Breakdown Cellular Fleet Capacity Age Profile by size range Built Age Units TEU 1.80 Size Range (TEU) Pre‐1984 > 35 16 26,885 > 35 1.1% 4.4% 1.60 1984‐1988 31‐35 22 32,554 31‐35 >18,000 teu Age Profile 15,200‐18,000 teu 1989 31 10 18,744 30 1.40 11.0% 25 years & above TEU Millions 12,500‐15,200 teu 1990 30 14 27,801 29 26.9% 20‐24 years 1.20 10,000‐12,500 teu 1991 29 21 24,748 28 15‐19 years 7,500‐10,000 teu 1992 28 23 26,463 27 27.1% 10‐14 years 1.00 5,100‐7,500 teu 5‐9 years 1993 27 33 55,572 26 29.4% 4,000‐5,100 teu Below 5 years 0.80 1994 26 47 52,322 25 3,000‐4,000 teu 2,000‐3,000 teu 1995 25 77 97,933 24 0.60 1,000‐2,000 teu 1996 24 105 164,209 23 <1,000 teu 0.40 1997 23 140 238,626 22 Average Age of Cellular Fleet : ALPHALINER 1998 22 150 284,172 21 Gross ‐ 12.7 years 0.20 1999 21 106 232,948 20 TEU Weighted ‐ 10.0 years 2000 20 125 384,085 19 0.00 2001 19 157 517,390 18 2002 18 176 552,363 17 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 Year Built 2003 17 159 504,668 16 Pre‐1990 2004 16 165 596,421 15 Overaged Cellular Fleet Capacity Profile (Built 2000 or earlier) 2005 15 265 929,927 14 2006 14 365 1,346,188 13 450,000 Total fleet above 20 years : Units 2007 13 418 1,375,938 12 400,000 125 889 units/1,667,062 teu 7,500‐10,000 2008 12 466 1,589,179 (7.2% of current fleet capacity) 5,100‐7,500 11 350,000 2009 11 272 1,062,807 10 4,000‐5,100 teu 300,000 150 2010 10 272 1,391,687 9 3,000‐4,000 teu 106 140 2011 9 205 1,256,316 8 250,000 2,000‐3,000 teu 2012 8 221 1,278,373 1,000‐2,000 teu 7 200,000 105 2013 7 236 1,416,329 6 <1,000 teu 150,000 2014 6 210 1,489,791 5 77 100,000 2015 5 234 1,743,527 4 47 33 30 2016 4 147 946,946 3 50,000 23 21 14 18 2017 3 160 1,195,393 2 0 TEU 2018 2 172 1,308,811 Age in years 1 2019 1 148 1,059,381 0‐1 Age in years 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 Page 3 © Copyright Alphaliner 1999-2020 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited ALPHALINER Monthly Monitor January 2020 Newbuilding Delivery Projecons ‐ Cellular Fleet 2019 Deliveries 2020F Deliveries 2021F Deliveries 2022F Deliveries Nominal TEU No.
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