Infotrak Public Policy and Governance Research Division Infotrak Harris Popularity Poll

INFOTRAK PUBLIC POLICY AND GOVERNANCE RESEARCH DIVISION

INFOTRAK HARRIS POPULARITY POLL

APRIL 2012

103 Manyani East Rd, Lavington P.O. Box 23081- 00100 Nairobi, Kenya, Tel: +254 20 4443450/1/2,

For more information contact: Raphael Mulwa +254 736 360 964

1. Introduction The implication of the new constitution on Kenyan politics cannot be underestimated. All political candidates must adhere to the national values and pass the integrity test under chapter six of the Constitution.

It is possible that the mind-set of the Kenyan voter has changed after the 2007/2008 post-election violence. Through opinion polls, politicians are able to tell what the voters perceive to be most important in terms of policies, voting preference, the message and also a candidate’s popularity among Kenyans from different socio-economic backgrounds.

The forthcoming general elections will be the first under the new constitution. Alliances have been formed as part of the strategies to win the presidential race. The campaigns have also witnessed new entrants into the race. Ultimately, the Kenyan voter will be the determinant of who holds which elective post.

In executing its mandate as a pollster and in bid to inform Kenyans, Infotrak Research and Consulting conducted a nationwide opinion poll to establish the popularity of various presidential hopefuls and political parties. The survey further sought to establish the preferred running mates for various presidential hopefuls.

2. The Methodology The poll was sponsored and conducted by Infotrak Research and Consulting between 11th and 13th March, 2012 through face to face interviews with a nationwide sample of 2400 respondents, to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,462,358 translating into a margin of error of -/+ 2 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all regions of Kenya. The sample was developed using Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) with the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census being used as the sampling frame. The sample was further split into key demographics i.e. by area, age and gender. The key administrative boundary was the district of residence which was further split into urban and rural areas.

Prepared by Infotrak Public Policy and Governance Research Division; Manyani East Rd, Lavington. For more information contact: Raphael Mulwa: [email protected]; Pauline Kiteng’e: [email protected] 2

The survey adopted stratified, random and systematic sampling technique. This was carefully done so as to ensure that every adult Kenyan was given an equal opportunity of being selected. From the same sample, specific attention was given to both male and female respondents.

3. Key Insights a) Key Insight 1: Majority of Kenyans intent to vote in the forthcoming general elections; On being asked whether they intend to vote in the forthcoming general elections, majority of Kenyans (91%) indicated that they intended participate. Another seven percent (7%) of the surveyed respondents indicated that they did not intend to vote in the forth coming general elections. A further eight (2%) of the surveyed respondents did not know how to respond to the question.

No, 7% Don’t Know, 2%

Yes, 91% n-2400 Do you intend to vote in the forth coming General Elections?

Majority of those who indicated their intention to vote in the forthcoming general elections were mainly from the middle age i.e. between the age of 26 years to 45 years.

Intention to vote by age

Yes No Don’t Know

98% 92% 93% 100% 87% 90% 91% 88% 90% 80%

60%

40%

20% 10% 7% 7% 7% 11% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 0% 5% 2% 1% 5% 5% 0% 18 - 20 Yrs 21 - 25 Yrs 26 - 30 Yrs 31 - 35 Yrs 36 - 40 Yrs 41 - 45 Yrs 46 - 50 Yrs 51 + Yrs

Lack of faith/trust in political leadership (29%) coupled with lack of identity cards/passport (28%) came out as the main reasons as to why seven percent of Kenyans do not intend to participate in the forthcoming general elections.

100%

80%

60% n=171

40% 29% 28% 22% 17% 20% 6% 0% Lack of Faith/trust in Don’t have an Fear of violence Don’t think it will be Early to tell still political leadership Identity of any benefit undecided Card/passport/voters card

If No or Don’t Know in question one above, why don’t you intend to participate in the forthcoming General Elections?

A trend analysis of Infotrak Harris polls indicate that voting intentions among Kenyans has been increasing over time.

Trend analysis for voting intention 100% 89% 91% 78% 80% 60% 40% 20% 12% 10% 7% 4% 7% 2% 0% July_2011 October_2011 April_2012 Yes 78% 89% 91% No 12% 7% 7% Don’t Know 10% 4% 2%

b) Key Insight 2: The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is the most popular political party among Kenyans Slightly more than half (54%) of the surveyed respondents indicated that their favorite political party is ODM. It was followed by the Party of National Unity (PNU) and WIPER Democratic Movement at 22% and 7% respectively. Other mentioned parties include KANU (5%), NARC Kenya (3%), UDM (2%) and NARC (1%). Five percent (5%) of the respondent did have any favorite political party at the time of the survey.

100% Which is your favourite Political Party? N = 2400 80%

60% 54%

40% 22% 20% 7% 5% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% Orange Party of WIPER KANU NARC - K UDM NARC Others None Democratic national Movement Unity (ODM) (PNU)

ODM’s strongholds include: Nyanza (84%), Western (79%), Coast (70%) and North Eastern regions (59%). The Party of National Unity is the most popular political party in central province at 50%. Wiper Democratic Movement’s stronghold is Eastern province at 34%.

Which is favorite political party?

North Rift Political Party Nairobi Central Coast Eastern Nyanza Western Eastern Valley Orange Democratic 55% 20% 70% 24% 59% 84% 50% 79% Movement (ODM) Party of National Unity 29% 50% 21% 22% 28% 4% 22% 8% (PNU)

WIPER 3% 4% 2% 34% 4% 1% 1% 1%

Kenya African National 5% 7% 2% 5% 3% 4% 7% 2% Union (KANU) National Rainbow Coalition - Kenya 1% 10% 2% 4% 1% 1% 2% 4% (NARC-K) United Democratic 2% 2% 1% 4% - - 4% 1% Movement (UDM) National Rainbow 2% - - - - - 1% - Coalition (NARC)

Reasons why various political parties are favourites for Kenyans

United Kenya National Orange Democra National Party of African Rainbow Democratic WIPE tic Rainbow Political Party National Unity National Coalition - Aggregate Movement R Moveme Coalition (PNU) Union Kenya (ODM) nt (NARC) (KANU) (NARC-K) (UDM)

It is a popular party 37% 40% 20% 68% 26% 17% 38% 36.3%

It is a Democratic Party 34% 18% 39% 12% 24% 32% - 28.6%

It has good leadership 15% 20% 36% 8% 25% 32% 23% 17.9%

It has brought development in 13% 20% 4% 10% 25% 5% 38% 13.9% the country

It is an independent party 2% 1% 1% 2% - 7% - 1.9%

All the parties are the same - 1% - - - - - 1.6%

It is a Stable party 1% 1% 4% - - - - 1.0%

It’s a non-tribal party 1% - - 1% - 7% - 1.0%

Why is ---- your favorite political party?

c) Key Insight 3: Prime Minister Raila Odinga is the man to beat in the fourth coming general elections On being asked on whom they would vote for as their president if presidential elections were held today, forty two percent (42%) of the surveyed respondents indicated that they would vote for Rt. Hon. Raila Odinga (42%) with twenty percent (22%) of the respondents preferring to vote for deputy Prime Minister Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta (22%). Another nine percent (9%) of the surveyed respondents indicated they would vote for Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka (9%). Other presidential hopefuls cited include: Hon. Martha Karua (5%), Hon. William Ruto (5%), Hon. Musalia Mudavadi (5%), Hon. Raphael Tuju (2%), Hon. Peter Kenneth (2%), Hon. George Saitoti (1%), Hon. Eugene Wamalwa (1%) among others. Five percent (5%) of the surveyed respondents indicated to be undecided on whom to vote for. This necessitates a run off between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta.

100% Apart from President Kibaki, who would you vote for 80% as your president if presidential elections were held today? 60% 42% 40% n=2400 22% 20% 9% 5% 5% 5% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 5%

Others

Undecided

Raila Odinga Raila

Raphael Tuju Raphael

William Ruto William

Martha Karua Martha

George Saitoti George

Peter Kenneth Peter

Uhuru Kenyatta Uhuru

Kalonzo Musyoka Kalonzo Eugene Wamalwa Eugene Musalia Mudavadi Musalia

Raila’s strongholds include Nyanza (81%), Coast (67%), Western (62%), North Eastern (61%) and Nairobi (50%). Uhuru Kenyatta is the most popular presidential candidate in central province at 61% while Kalonzo’s stronghold is Eastern province at 43%. Rift Valley region seems to accommodate all presidential hopefuls with Raila Odinga, William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta being the main contenders at 37%, 26% and 21% respectively.

Popularity of Presidential hopefuls by Region

Popularity Nairobi Central Coast Eastern N.Eastern Nyanza R.Valley Western Raila Odinga 50% 11% 67% 19% 61% 81% 37% 62% Uhuru Kenyatta 25% 61% 9% 20% 16% 4% 21% 7% Kalonzo Musyoka 5% 8% 4% 43% 6% 2% 3% 2% Martha Karua 5% 7% 8% 9% 2% 4% 3% 4% William Ruto 6% 1% 4% 2% 5% 2% 26% 4% Musalia 5% 4% 4% 1% 5% 3% 5% 16% Mudavadi Raphael Tuju 1% 2% 1% 3% - 1% 2% 1% Peter Kenneth 1% 6% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% - George Saitoti 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% - Eugene Wamalwa 1% 1% - - - - 1% 4% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

A trend analysis of Infotrak Harris polls indicate that some presidential hopefuls’ have lost ground while others have gained popularity since February this year. Among those who have gained popularity include Hon. Raila Odinga (from 38% to 42%), Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta (from 18% to 22%), Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka (from 6% to 9%), Hon. Musalia Mudavadi (from 3% to 5%) and Hon. Raphael Tuju (0.4% to 2%). This can be attributed to their intensified campaigns over the last few months. Hon. Martha Karua (5%), Hon. Peter Kenneth (2%), Hon. George Saitoti (1%) and Hon. Eugene Wamalwa (1%) have maintained their popularity since February this year. Hon. William Ruto is among the presidential hopefuls who have lost popularity (from 7% in February to 5% in April).

Trend analysis of top five presidential hopefuls since March 2011

60% 50% 40% 30% 20%

Trend Analysis 10% 0% October_2 February_ Mar_11 Jun_11 Jul_11 Aug_11 April_2012 011 2012 Raila Odinga 48% 45% 42% 40% 41% 38% 42% Uhuru Kenyatta 9% 19% 20% 17% 19% 18% 22% William Ruto 7% 9% 13% 13% 7% 7% 5% Kalonzo Musyoka 11% 7% 8% 6% 9% 6% 9% Martha Karua 10% 12% 10% 15% 11% 5% 5%

d) Key Insight 4: Prime Minister Raila Odinga would beat Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta if a run off was held between Raila and Uhuru.

If the presidential elections resulted into a two horse race, Raila Odinga would beat all the presidential hopefuls with Uhuru Kenyatta Kenyatta coming closer at 47.5%. Uhuru Kenyatta would beat Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Hon. William Ruto by 58.3 % and 67.3% respectively.

If the presidential contest resulted into a two horse race as outlined in the following scenarios, whom would you vote for as your President? No. Presidential Incidence Scenario Presidential Candidate Incidence Candidate 1 Raila Odinga 52.5% Versus Uhuru Kenyatta 47.5% 2 Raila Odinga 61.0% Versus Kalonzo Musyoka 39.0% 3 Raila Odinga 59.4% Versus Musalia Mudavadi 40.6% 4 Raila Odinga 64.8% Versus William Ruto 35.2% 5 Raila Odinga 61.7% Versus Peter Kenneth 38.3% 6 Raila Odinga 63.3% Versus Martha Karua 36.7% 7 Uhuru Kenyatta 58.3% Versus Kalonzo Musyoka 41.7% 8 Uhuru Kenyatta 67.3% Versus William Ruto 32.7%

4. About Infotrak Research and Consulting Infotrak Research and Consulting is a full service research company that was founded in 2004 following the vision of the founder to provide the Pan African Market with suitable information solutions required to sustain the ever-growing economies in the continent.

Headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, Infotrak also has affiliate offices in Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria and field contacts in more than 12 other countries in Sub Saharan Africa. The firm attributes its rapid growth to not only innovation, high level of professionalism and dynamism, but also on the excellent caliber of personnel who have been described by many as “Business minds who specialize in research”. Services provided include: Customer & Employee Satisfaction Surveys, Market Segmentation Studies, Brand Health checks, Consumer Usage and attitude studies, advertising awareness/impact surveys, advertising pre-post testing, media surveys, pricing studies, new product research, market feasibilities, formative research, perception surveys, KAP studies etc

Whilst Infotrak has already carved a niche in market research, the firm’s reputation in Social research has quickly gained impetus. In 2009, the Infotrak Public Policy and Governance Research division was created to provide research to civil Society organizations, Foreign Embassies, Donor Agencies, UN Agencies, Government Ministries, Corporations and Commissions. Today, Infotrak is one of the most authoritative pollsters in East Africa, providing political opinion polling under the Infotrak Harris Poll flagship brand. In the period culminating to the 2010 referendum on the constitution in Kenya, Infotrak was the only pollster to accurately predict the poll outcome reaffirming its competence in sampling, data collection and analysis.

Infotrak is a global network affiliate of Harris Interactive USA, the 12th largest and one of the fastest-growing market and social research firm in the world. Harris Interactive is widely known for the Harris Poll. The team has extensive and proven experience in both qualitative and quantitative research.