INFOTRAK PUBLIC POLICY AND GOVERNANCE RESEARCH DIVISION INFOTRAK HARRIS POPULARITY POLL APRIL 2012 103 Manyani East Rd, Lavington P.O. Box 23081- 00100 Nairobi, Kenya, Tel: +254 20 4443450/1/2, For more information contact: Raphael Mulwa +254 736 360 964 1. Introduction The implication of the new constitution on Kenyan politics cannot be underestimated. All political candidates must adhere to the national values and pass the integrity test under chapter six of the Constitution. It is possible that the mind-set of the Kenyan voter has changed after the 2007/2008 post-election violence. Through opinion polls, politicians are able to tell what the voters perceive to be most important in terms of policies, voting preference, the message and also a candidate’s popularity among Kenyans from different socio-economic backgrounds. The forthcoming general elections will be the first under the new constitution. Alliances have been formed as part of the strategies to win the presidential race. The campaigns have also witnessed new entrants into the race. Ultimately, the Kenyan voter will be the determinant of who holds which elective post. In executing its mandate as a pollster and in bid to inform Kenyans, Infotrak Research and Consulting conducted a nationwide opinion poll to establish the popularity of various presidential hopefuls and political parties. The survey further sought to establish the preferred running mates for various presidential hopefuls. 2. The Methodology The poll was sponsored and conducted by Infotrak Research and Consulting between 11th and 13th March, 2012 through face to face interviews with a nationwide sample of 2400 respondents, to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,462,358 translating into a margin of error of -/+ 2 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all regions of Kenya. The sample was developed using Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) with the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census being used as the sampling frame. The sample was further split into key demographics i.e. by area, age and gender. The key administrative boundary was the district of residence which was further split into urban and rural areas. Prepared by Infotrak Public Policy and Governance Research Division; Manyani East Rd, Lavington. For more information contact: Raphael Mulwa: [email protected]; Pauline Kiteng’e: [email protected] 2 The survey adopted stratified, random and systematic sampling technique. This was carefully done so as to ensure that every adult Kenyan was given an equal opportunity of being selected. From the same sample, specific attention was given to both male and female respondents. 3. Key Insights a) Key Insight 1: Majority of Kenyans intent to vote in the forthcoming general elections; On being asked whether they intend to vote in the forthcoming general elections, majority of Kenyans (91%) indicated that they intended participate. Another seven percent (7%) of the surveyed respondents indicated that they did not intend to vote in the forth coming general elections. A further eight (2%) of the surveyed respondents did not know how to respond to the question. No, 7% Don’t Know, 2% Yes, 91% n-2400 Do you intend to vote in the forth coming General Elections? Majority of those who indicated their intention to vote in the forthcoming general elections were mainly from the middle age i.e. between the age of 26 years to 45 years. Prepared by Infotrak Public Policy and Governance Research Division; Manyani East Rd, Lavington. For more information contact: Raphael Mulwa: [email protected]; Pauline Kiteng’e: [email protected] 3 Intention to vote by age Yes No Don’t Know 98% 92% 93% 100% 87% 90% 91% 88% 90% 80% 60% 40% 20% 10% 7% 7% 7% 11% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 0% 5% 2% 1% 5% 5% 0% 18 - 20 Yrs 21 - 25 Yrs 26 - 30 Yrs 31 - 35 Yrs 36 - 40 Yrs 41 - 45 Yrs 46 - 50 Yrs 51 + Yrs Lack of faith/trust in political leadership (29%) coupled with lack of identity cards/passport (28%) came out as the main reasons as to why seven percent of Kenyans do not intend to participate in the forthcoming general elections. 100% 80% 60% n=171 40% 29% 28% 22% 17% 20% 6% 0% Lack of Faith/trust in Don’t have an Fear of violence Don’t think it will be Early to tell still political leadership Identity of any benefit undecided Card/passport/voters card If No or Don’t Know in question one above, why don’t you intend to participate in the forthcoming General Elections? A trend analysis of Infotrak Harris polls indicate that voting intentions among Kenyans has been increasing over time. Prepared by Infotrak Public Policy and Governance Research Division; Manyani East Rd, Lavington. For more information contact: Raphael Mulwa: [email protected]; Pauline Kiteng’e: [email protected] 4 Trend analysis for voting intention 100% 89% 91% 78% 80% 60% 40% 20% 12% 10% 7% 4% 7% 2% 0% July_2011 October_2011 April_2012 Yes 78% 89% 91% No 12% 7% 7% Don’t Know 10% 4% 2% b) Key Insight 2: The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is the most popular political party among Kenyans Slightly more than half (54%) of the surveyed respondents indicated that their favorite political party is ODM. It was followed by the Party of National Unity (PNU) and WIPER Democratic Movement at 22% and 7% respectively. Other mentioned parties include KANU (5%), NARC Kenya (3%), UDM (2%) and NARC (1%). Five percent (5%) of the respondent did have any favorite political party at the time of the survey. 100% Which is your favourite Political Party? N = 2400 80% 60% 54% 40% 22% 20% 7% 5% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% Orange Party of WIPER KANU NARC - K UDM NARC Others None Democratic national Movement Unity (ODM) (PNU) ODM’s strongholds include: Nyanza (84%), Western (79%), Coast (70%) and North Eastern regions (59%). The Party of National Unity is the most popular political party in central province at 50%. Wiper Democratic Movement’s stronghold is Eastern province at 34%. Prepared by Infotrak Public Policy and Governance Research Division; Manyani East Rd, Lavington. For more information contact: Raphael Mulwa: [email protected]; Pauline Kiteng’e: [email protected] 5 Which is favorite political party? North Rift Political Party Nairobi Central Coast Eastern Nyanza Western Eastern Valley Orange Democratic 55% 20% 70% 24% 59% 84% 50% 79% Movement (ODM) Party of National Unity 29% 50% 21% 22% 28% 4% 22% 8% (PNU) WIPER 3% 4% 2% 34% 4% 1% 1% 1% Kenya African National 5% 7% 2% 5% 3% 4% 7% 2% Union (KANU) National Rainbow Coalition - Kenya 1% 10% 2% 4% 1% 1% 2% 4% (NARC-K) United Democratic 2% 2% 1% 4% - - 4% 1% Movement (UDM) National Rainbow 2% - - - - - 1% - Coalition (NARC) Reasons why various political parties are favourites for Kenyans United Kenya National Orange Democra National Party of African Rainbow Democratic WIPE tic Rainbow Political Party National Unity National Coalition - Aggregate Movement R Moveme Coalition (PNU) Union Kenya (ODM) nt (NARC) (KANU) (NARC-K) (UDM) It is a popular party 37% 40% 20% 68% 26% 17% 38% 36.3% It is a Democratic Party 34% 18% 39% 12% 24% 32% - 28.6% It has good leadership 15% 20% 36% 8% 25% 32% 23% 17.9% It has brought development in 13% 20% 4% 10% 25% 5% 38% 13.9% the country It is an independent party 2% 1% 1% 2% - 7% - 1.9% All the parties are the same - 1% - - - - - 1.6% It is a Stable party 1% 1% 4% - - - - 1.0% It’s a non-tribal party 1% - - 1% - 7% - 1.0% Why is ---- your favorite political party? Prepared by Infotrak Public Policy and Governance Research Division; Manyani East Rd, Lavington. For more information contact: Raphael Mulwa: [email protected]; Pauline Kiteng’e: [email protected] 6 c) Key Insight 3: Prime Minister Raila Odinga is the man to beat in the fourth coming general elections On being asked on whom they would vote for as their president if presidential elections were held today, forty two percent (42%) of the surveyed respondents indicated that they would vote for Rt. Hon. Raila Odinga (42%) with twenty percent (22%) of the respondents preferring to vote for deputy Prime Minister Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta (22%). Another nine percent (9%) of the surveyed respondents indicated they would vote for Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka (9%). Other presidential hopefuls cited include: Hon. Martha Karua (5%), Hon. William Ruto (5%), Hon. Musalia Mudavadi (5%), Hon. Raphael Tuju (2%), Hon. Peter Kenneth (2%), Hon. George Saitoti (1%), Hon. Eugene Wamalwa (1%) among others. Five percent (5%) of the surveyed respondents indicated to be undecided on whom to vote for. This necessitates a run off between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta. 100% Apart from President Kibaki, who would you vote for 80% as your president if presidential elections were held today? 60% 42% 40% n=2400 22% 20% 9% 5% 5% 5% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 5% 0% Others Undecided Raila Odinga Raila Raphael Tuju Raphael William Ruto William Martha Karua Martha George Saitoti George Peter Kenneth Peter Uhuru Kenyatta Uhuru Kalonzo Musyoka Kalonzo Eugene Wamalwa Eugene Musalia Mudavadi Musalia Raila’s strongholds include Nyanza (81%), Coast (67%), Western (62%), North Eastern (61%) and Nairobi (50%). Uhuru Kenyatta is the most popular presidential candidate in central province at 61% while Kalonzo’s stronghold is Eastern province at 43%. Rift Valley region seems to accommodate all presidential hopefuls with Raila Odinga, William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta being the main contenders at 37%, 26% and 21% respectively.