AFRICAPROGRAM occasional paper series From Moi to Kibaki:An Assessment of the Kenyan Transition No.1 Ambassador Johnnie Carson September 11,2003 Senior Vice President, National Defense University An Introduction from Howard Wolpe: embraced and brought into America’s inner circle As the new Director of the Woodrow Wilson of new African partners. International Center's Africa Program, I am pleased to Despite our sometimes tepid approach toward present the first of a series of “occasional papers” of inter- the government in Nairobi over the last 15 years, est to those concerned with Africa, and with American and our correct criticism of the government’s policy toward Africa. “From Moi to Kibaki: An human rights record, Kenya has been our most sta- Assessment of the Kenyan Transition” provides a ble and reliable partner in the Greater Horn of remarkably clear and incisive analysis by one of the U.S. Africa. More importantly,it has served as a regional Foreign Service's most distinguished Africa specialists.We platform for advancing important U.S. bilateral and felt that Ambassador Johnnie Carson's public lecture multilateral interests. deserved a wider audience, and was an ideal vehicle for Without the use of Kenya’s airports and harbor the first of our series of occasional papers. in Mombasa, the United States would not have been able to provide famine relief to drought rav- ished Somalia between 1988 and 1993 nor massive In my opinion Kenya is the most important coun- emergency and humanitarian assistance to hundreds try in East Africa. However, over much of the last of thousands of Hutu refugees in the eastern Congo decade and a half, Nairobi has not received a great and western Tanzania after the Rwandan genocide deal of serious or sustained attention from senior of 1994. In addition, Kenya has been the principal American policymakers. Largely because of base for Operation Lifeline Sudan, the UN run and endemic corruption, serious human rights viola- US supported relief program that feeds thousands of tions and a difficult transition to democratic rule people in war ravaged southern Sudan.On the polit- in 1992, Kenya was treated very warily by ical side, Kenya has been the principal mediator in American officials, a country to be quietly recog- the U.S. backed effort to find a peaceful solution to nized and courted to achieve specific U.S. foreign the twenty-year-old conflict in southern Sudan, the policy objectives but not a country to be fully leader in the effort to stop illegal cross border arms AFRICA PROGRAM OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES trafficking in the region, and the facilitator of the struggles would result in wide spread violence. only meaningful peace talks among Somalia’s dispu- None of these events occurred and all of those tatious warlords. All of these are initiatives that we who predicted the end of the world in Kenya have have endorsed or supported. been proven dramatically wrong. But recently, things have started to change Today, Kenya is clearly far better off than it was in Kenya. Kenya’s very successful parliamen- four years ago, and the level of optimism through- tary and presidential elections of December out the country is probably greater than it has 2002 have opened the door for a new govern- been in the last ten or fifteen years. ment and a new era in that country. While All of us who are a part of the democratic com- challenges for Kenya remain as the country’s munity should applaud Kenya for its recent politi- new president, Mwai Kibaki, works to promote cal accomplishments. The presidential and parlia- major reforms in his nation, the US also faces chal- mentary elections that took place on December lenges as it seeks to maintain its important interests 27, 2002 and the successful transfer of power that Ambassador Johnnie Carson in Kenya, namely the political, military and intelli- occurred at Uhuru Park on December 30 were a gence relationships we have built up over many remarkable success. years. Today I would like to review President One does not have to look far to recognize the Kibaki’s first six months in office, discuss the eco- significance of Kenya’s democratic achievement. In nomic and political challenges Kenya will face over the last two years, a half dozen African states have the next 12 to 18 months, and outline the chal- held major elections. In almost every case, those lenges for the US as we seek to work with Kenya’s elections have gone badly wrong. In Zimbabwe, new leaders. Zambia, Madagascar, the Ivory Coast and Liberia, governments are all struggling to repair or cover Election Outcome up the divisions and deficiencies that have resulted When I went out to Kenya in the late summer of from flawed electoral and political processes. 1999, in the aftermath of the tragic 1998 bombing In marked contrast, Kenya’s elections were a of our Embassy, in the twenty-first year of model for Africa. They were peaceful, fair and President Moi’s long tenure and in the ninth year transparent, and they were carried out according of Kenya’s steep economic decline, I had every rea- to the country’s constitution. Kenya’s political son to be pessimistic about my assignment and leaders demonstrated an impressive degree of about Kenya’s future. Almost everyone I encoun- political maturity, and the military—despite tered warned me that my tenure would be enor- rumors that they might—did not interfere in the process. And on December 30, in a ceremony Kenya’s elections were a model for Africa. watched by a half million Kenyans, one democrat- They were peaceful, fair and transparent, ically elected president gave way to another. and they were carried out according to the The First Six Months In his first six months in office, President Kibaki country’s constitution. has earned widespread praise for his selection of senior government officials and his commitment mously difficult, that Kenya’s national elections to implementing some of his most significant elec- would not be held on time, that President Moi tion promises. would not leave office at the end of his second five Addressing one of Kenya’s problems, President year term, that the completion of Kenya’s new Kibaki has launched a serious attack on the culture constitution would disrupt the election timetable of corruption that has given Kenya a bad name 2 and that the ensuing political and constitutional internationally and undermined the country’s rela- FROM MOI TO KIBAKI: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE KENYAN TRANSITION tions with the World Bank, the IMF and other nificantly underestimated the number of children major development partners. The president’s deci- who would seek out primary school education sion to appoint John Githongo, the widely respect- and the amount it would cost the government, he ed local director of Transparency International, to did not retreat from his pledge. In his first major fill a new senior position responsible for ethics and government integrity was a stroke of political President Kibaki has also acted wisely in the genius and a clear signal that Kibaki was serious about his stand against corruption. selection of his cabinet members, especially In another bold move President Kibaki has also those filling the most critical positions. taken aim at Kenya’s feeble and corrupt judiciary. Within days of assuming office, he created a new policy decision after he was sworn in, Kibaki ministry of Justice and Constitutional Affairs and eliminated all school fees for primary school chil- forced the resignation of former Chief Justice dren, a decision that continues to resonate well Bernard Chunga. Justice Chunga was widely around the country. regarded as ineffective, corrupt and easily influ- Finally, Kibaki—in another politically popular enced by officials in President Moi’s government. move—elevated the status of women by appoint- Although much remains to be done to clean up ing over a dozen prominent female politicians to Kenya’s court system, the purge at the top removes cabinet and sub-cabinet positions. Although for- a previously encrusted and cancerous bottleneck in mer President Daniel arap Moi occasionally gave the legal and judicial process. lip service to the importance of women in society, President Kibaki has also acted wisely in the during his last six years in office he did not have selection of his cabinet members, especially those any women in his cabinet and only two female filling the most critical positions. Given Kenya’s assistant ministers. economic situation, the Minister of Finance is arguably the most important cabinet post in the Post Election Challenges To The New Government government. In selecting David Muraria to take Although the new Kenyan Government is off to the job, Kibaki chose someone with strong cre- an excellent start and deserves our greatest admira- dentials and a spotless record—and someone who tion and strongest support, it does face a number would be able to win the confidence of the inter- of very significant challenges, challenges that could national financial institutions and the overseas derail its reform effort, undermine its credibility at business community. President Kibaki’s appoint- home and abroad and possibly fracture the fragile ments in Industry, Home Affairs, Development coalition that brought it to victory. Planning, Education, and Environment have all Although there are probably more, I think the been above average. He has also brought on board Kenyan government faces six major challenges. a number of young, well educated, first time min- isters like Raphael Tuju, Najib Balala, and Dr. Kibaki’s Health Mukisa Kituyi, who are likely to move ahead rap- The first challenge centers on the president him- idly in the years to come.