AFRICAPROGRAM occasional paper series

From Moi to Kibaki:An Assessment of the Kenyan Transition

No.1 Ambassador Johnnie Carson September 11,2003 Senior Vice President, National Defense University

An Introduction from Howard Wolpe: embraced and brought into America’s inner circle As the new Director of the Woodrow Wilson of new African partners. International Center's Africa Program, I am pleased to Despite our sometimes tepid approach toward present the first of a series of “occasional papers” of inter- the government in over the last 15 years, est to those concerned with Africa, and with American and our correct criticism of the government’s policy toward Africa. “From Moi to Kibaki: An human rights record, has been our most sta- Assessment of the Kenyan Transition” provides a ble and reliable partner in the Greater Horn of remarkably clear and incisive analysis by one of the U.S. Africa. More importantly,it has served as a regional Foreign Service's most distinguished Africa specialists.We platform for advancing important U.S. bilateral and felt that Ambassador Johnnie Carson's public lecture multilateral interests. deserved a wider audience, and was an ideal vehicle for Without the use of Kenya’s airports and harbor the first of our series of occasional papers. in Mombasa, the would not have been able to provide famine relief to drought rav- ished Somalia between 1988 and 1993 nor massive In my opinion Kenya is the most important coun- emergency and humanitarian assistance to hundreds try in East Africa. However, over much of the last of thousands of Hutu refugees in the eastern Congo decade and a half, Nairobi has not received a great and western Tanzania after the Rwandan genocide deal of serious or sustained attention from senior of 1994. In addition, Kenya has been the principal American policymakers. Largely because of base for Operation Lifeline , the UN run and endemic corruption, serious human rights viola- US supported relief program that feeds thousands of tions and a difficult transition to democratic rule people in war ravaged southern Sudan.On the polit- in 1992, Kenya was treated very warily by ical side, Kenya has been the principal mediator in American officials, a country to be quietly recog- the U.S. backed effort to find a peaceful solution to nized and courted to achieve specific U.S. foreign the twenty-year-old conflict in southern Sudan, the policy objectives but not a country to be fully leader in the effort to stop illegal cross border arms AFRICA PROGRAM OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES

trafficking in the region, and the facilitator of the struggles would result in wide spread violence. only meaningful peace talks among Somalia’s dispu- None of these events occurred and all of those tatious warlords. All of these are initiatives that we who predicted the end of the world in Kenya have have endorsed or supported. been proven dramatically wrong. But recently, things have started to change Today, Kenya is clearly far better off than it was in Kenya. Kenya’s very successful parliamen- four years ago, and the level of optimism through- tary and presidential elections of December out the country is probably greater than it has 2002 have opened the door for a new govern- been in the last ten or fifteen years. ment and a new era in that country. While All of us who are a part of the democratic com- challenges for Kenya remain as the country’s munity should applaud Kenya for its recent politi- new president, , works to promote cal accomplishments. The presidential and parlia- major reforms in his nation, the US also faces chal- mentary elections that took place on December lenges as it seeks to maintain its important interests 27, 2002 and the successful transfer of power that Ambassador Johnnie Carson in Kenya, namely the political, military and intelli- occurred at Uhuru Park on December 30 were a gence relationships we have built up over many remarkable success. years. Today I would like to review President One does not have to look far to recognize the Kibaki’s first six months in office, discuss the eco- significance of Kenya’s democratic achievement. In nomic and political challenges Kenya will face over the last two years, a half dozen African states have the next 12 to 18 months, and outline the chal- held major elections. In almost every case, those lenges for the US as we seek to work with Kenya’s elections have gone badly wrong. In , new leaders. Zambia, Madagascar, the Ivory Coast and Liberia, governments are all struggling to repair or cover Election Outcome up the divisions and deficiencies that have resulted When I went out to Kenya in the late summer of from flawed electoral and political processes. 1999, in the aftermath of the tragic 1998 bombing In marked contrast, Kenya’s elections were a of our Embassy, in the twenty-first year of model for Africa. They were peaceful, fair and President Moi’s long tenure and in the ninth year transparent, and they were carried out according of Kenya’s steep economic decline, I had every rea- to the country’s constitution. Kenya’s political son to be pessimistic about my assignment and leaders demonstrated an impressive degree of about Kenya’s future. Almost everyone I encoun- political maturity, and the military—despite tered warned me that my tenure would be enor- rumors that they might—did not interfere in the process. And on December 30, in a ceremony Kenya’s elections were a model for Africa. watched by a half million Kenyans, one democrat- They were peaceful, fair and transparent, ically elected president gave way to another. and they were carried out according to the The First Six Months In his first six months in office, President Kibaki country’s constitution. has earned widespread praise for his selection of senior government officials and his commitment mously difficult, that Kenya’s national elections to implementing some of his most significant elec- would not be held on time, that President Moi tion promises. would not leave office at the end of his second five Addressing one of Kenya’s problems, President year term, that the completion of Kenya’s new Kibaki has launched a serious attack on the culture constitution would disrupt the election timetable of corruption that has given Kenya a bad name 2 and that the ensuing political and constitutional internationally and undermined the country’s rela- FROM MOI TO KIBAKI: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE KENYAN TRANSITION

tions with the World Bank, the IMF and other nificantly underestimated the number of children major development partners. The president’s deci- who would seek out primary school education sion to appoint , the widely respect- and the amount it would cost the government, he ed local director of Transparency International, to did not retreat from his pledge. In his first major fill a new senior position responsible for ethics and government integrity was a stroke of political President Kibaki has also acted wisely in the genius and a clear signal that Kibaki was serious about his stand against corruption. selection of his cabinet members, especially In another bold move President Kibaki has also those filling the most critical positions. taken aim at Kenya’s feeble and corrupt judiciary. Within days of assuming office, he created a new policy decision after he was sworn in, Kibaki ministry of Justice and Constitutional Affairs and eliminated all school fees for primary school chil- forced the resignation of former Chief Justice dren, a decision that continues to resonate well Bernard Chunga. Justice Chunga was widely around the country. regarded as ineffective, corrupt and easily influ- Finally, Kibaki—in another politically popular enced by officials in President Moi’s government. move—elevated the status of women by appoint- Although much remains to be done to clean up ing over a dozen prominent female politicians to Kenya’s court system, the purge at the top removes cabinet and sub-cabinet positions. Although for- a previously encrusted and cancerous bottleneck in mer President occasionally gave the legal and judicial process. lip service to the importance of women in society, President Kibaki has also acted wisely in the during his last six years in office he did not have selection of his cabinet members, especially those any women in his cabinet and only two female filling the most critical positions. Given Kenya’s assistant ministers. economic situation, the Minister of Finance is arguably the most important cabinet post in the Post Election Challenges To The New Government government. In selecting David Muraria to take Although the new Kenyan Government is off to the job, Kibaki chose someone with strong cre- an excellent start and deserves our greatest admira- dentials and a spotless record—and someone who tion and strongest support, it does face a number would be able to win the confidence of the inter- of very significant challenges, challenges that could national financial institutions and the overseas derail its reform effort, undermine its credibility at business community. President Kibaki’s appoint- home and abroad and possibly fracture the fragile ments in Industry, Home Affairs, Development coalition that brought it to victory. Planning, Education, and Environment have all Although there are probably more, I think the been above average. He has also brought on board Kenyan government faces six major challenges. a number of young, well educated, first time min- isters like , , and Dr. Kibaki’s Health Mukisa Kituyi, who are likely to move ahead rap- The first challenge centers on the president him- idly in the years to come. self and the current state of his health. On President Kibaki has also won instantaneous December 3, three weeks before last year’s goodwill throughout Kenya by following national elections, President Kibaki was injured through on one of his most widely publicized in a car accident. He sustained a broken right arm campaign pledges. During the run-up to the and a severe dislocation of his right foot and election, Kibaki promised to provide free primary ankle. Kibaki was flown to London for additional school education to every Kenyan child if his medical treatment and returned to a hero’s wel- coalition triumphed at the polls.Although he sig- come on December 14. Since assuming power, 3 AFRICA PROJECT OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES

President Kibaki has had to return to the hospital hands of a new and powerful prime minister who twice to be treated for blood clots and possibly could challenge or dominate a weakened presi- deep vein thrombosis brought on by the long dency. Factions within the government coalition period of inactivity resulting from these injuries. are increasingly polarized on this issue. If there is Although Kibaki has resumed a nearly full sched- no progress on the completion of a new constitu- ule of domestic and international activities, some tion by the end of 2003 or the first half of 2004, concerns about his health linger. The sudden and the constitutional stalemate could precipitate a unexpected death last month of Kenya’s Vice political crisis. President Michael Wamalwa has caused some local political commentators to raise even more ques- Financial and Budgetary Shortfalls tions about the president’s health. Given Kenya’s The third challenge concerns the government’s regional importance and the role it plays in con- budget and financial shortfalls. Kenya’s economy flict resolution both in Sudan and Somalia, the has been in serious decline for the last decade. country needs a strong, visible and effective Between 1990 and 1998, the economy was largely President capable of engaging on all the issues that stagnant, expanding at less than two percent a year, face the country. clearly below the country’s still relatively high population growth rate. Between 1998 and 2001, Delays and Conflicts in the Constitutional Reform Process the economy contracted if population growth is The second challenge concerns Kenya’s constitu- factored into the numbers. Although the govern- tional review process. ment has done a fairly decent job of managing its The debate over whether Kenya should go budget during this difficult period, its finances are into the last presidential and parliamentary elec- now in very serious trouble. In the last two years, tions under the existing constitution or a new the absence of budgetary support from the World constitution nearly provoked a political crisis that Bank and IMF was exacerbated by excessive pre- could have derailed and scuttled last year’s very election spending, some of it driven by corruption. successful elections. Although political leaders The government now faces new demands on the skillfully avoided that crisis, a new one is clearly public treasury generated by the decision to pro- evolving. The government that came to power in vide free primary education to all Kenyan children December 2002 pledged that it would make the and the promise of free medical services to needy constitutional review process one of its top prior- Kenyan families. ities and that a new constitution would be com- Today, there is a major current account deficit. pleted within six months. However, as a result of This shortfall will increase domestic borrowing by the magnitude of the victory the political center the government leading to upward pressure on of gravity around the review changed dramatical- interest rates and a shortage of funds for private sec- ly and the constitutional process has now slowed tor investment. The World Bank and IMF are down considerably.There is no doubt that Kenya expected to resume their budgetary support pro- would benefit from some constitutional changes, grams later this year, but the government’s deficit but the members of President Kibaki’s coalition could balloon even further if there is any serious are now deeply divided over whether a new con- delay in the resumption of the long-stalled stitution needs to be rushed through and whether International Financial Institutions program. the new constitution should re-align the division of labor within the executive branch. Having won Moving the Anti-Corruption Agenda the presidency, President Kibaki and his closest The fourth challenge concerns corruption. associates do not believe that presidential power Widespread and systematic corruption has always 4 should be dramatically cut and shifted into the been a problem in Kenya. However, after over six KENYA: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS

months in office, there is absolutely no doubt that These cells remain active and are probably plan- the current government is committed to fighting ning more mass casualty attacks in Kenya. Kenya corruption and improving the country’s image.The can ill afford another terrorist event on its soil. Such appointment of a senior anti-corruption czar, the an incident would damage Kenya’s economy, removal of a corrupt chief justice and the passage of undermine the country’s image, and call into ques- two importance pieces of anti-corruption legisla- tion the government’s ability to provide adequate tion reflect this commitment. Nevertheless, to pre- security for visitors and citizens. vent future corruption, Kenya will have to prose- Kenya has taken a strong public stand against cute those who have stolen government funds, an terrorism, but it must continue to act aggressively achievement which has eluded previous govern- and proactively in going after the terrorists and ments. Over the last decade, Kenya’s current those in the population who shield them. Attorney General has never successfully prosecuted or won a conviction against any high level govern- Managing Coalition Cohesion ment official. To cement the government’s anti- The last challenge that President Kibaki faces is corruption campaign, corrupt officials must be managing coalition cohesion. The current govern- convicted and jailed or made to turn over their ille- ment is not a homogeneous and unified political gally acquired wealth. body.It is a coalition of political forces representing a broad range of political and regional views. By my Security:Another Blast count, the current coalition government consists of The fifth challenge concerns security. President at least four major political blocks and 10 lesser Kibaki’s new government must pay significantly political groupings. greater attention to the issue of security. In the last The leaders of these parties closed ranks to four years, Kenya has been the victim of two major defeat KANU, erase the legacy of former international terrorist attacks. On August 7, 1998, President Moi and bring change to the American Embassy in downtown Nairobi was and to the country. destroyed by a terrorist bomb.That explosion had a Six months into the new administration, some chilling impact on Kenya’s image and segments of of the personal rivalries and suspicions that existed its economy.Many thought that type of sophisticat- before the election have resurfaced. Serious differ- ed and well-coordinated attack would never hap- ences have emerged between the DP wing of the pen again in Kenya. But on November 28, 2002, new government and NDP/LDP faction over the international terrorists carried out an equally dar- conclusion of the constitutional review process, the ing and sophisticated attack—firing two shoulder sharing of ministerial positions among the various launched surface to air missiles at a fully loaded political parties, the selection of a new Speaker of Israeli civilian airplane and successfully detonating a Parliament, and the exclusion of and car bomb in the lobby of the Paradise Hotel. members of his party from various coalition and This event was a wakeup call for Kenya, East parliamentary leadership positions. As tensions and Africa and the entire international community.The frustrations grow, the prospects of the coalition preliminary investigation of that bombing con- splintering also increase. Significantly more atten- firmed a great deal that many experts had suspected: tion will have to be paid to keeping the coalition that Al Qaeda has at least one or two active cells in together in the days and weeks ahead. Should the Kenya; that the perpetrators of the Mombasa attack coalition split, it could generate political instability, were also involved in the attack on the American realignments in the parliament and perhaps early Embassy in August of 1998; that the members of the elections. All of this will generate political uncer- cell are Kenyans; and that the Kenya cells are a part tainty and set back both the reform process and of Al Qaeda’s larger global network. renewed economic recovery. 5 AFRICA PROJECT OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES

Challenges For The United States have in several instances plunged their countries Kenya is changing and as it evolves and becomes into deep and sustained political crises. As a friend more democratic, the United States also faces a and partner, Kenya’s democratic success should be number of serious challenges in maintaining its rewarded with additional development assistance, pre-existing strong relationship with Kenya. Failure not less. We should do everything we can to sup- to meet these challenges could undermine the port Kenya’s new democratic government, to residual confidence and friendship that Kenyan demonstrate our support for the country’s demo- leaders have shown the United States and the polit- cratic process and the shared goals we hold. A ical and military ties that have helped advance US democracy dividend, which can take many forms, policy objectives in the region. appears well justified at this time. Don’t Take Kenya For Granted Anti-terrorism Assistance Should Flow Faster First, it is important that the United Sates not take Third, we need to follow through in a timelier and Kenya’s friendship and partnership for granted.The more appropriate manner on our pledges of assis- United States must nurture its relationship with tance to help Kenya in its battle to fight interna- Kenya. With a new democratic government in tional terrorism. Since the August 1998 bombing power, a vibrant civil society, a strong political of the American embassy in Nairobi by al Qaeda opposition and a sophisticated media, Kenyans will terrorist, Kenya has been on the front lines of the no longer quickly follow our lead and accept our global war on terrorism. Immediately following views with the same unquestioned loyalty and sup- 9/11 and in recognition of Kenya’s security needs, port of previous years. Kenya’s newly elected gov- the U.S. announced and offered Kenya assistance in ernment will have to work hard to bring political the field of anti-terrorism. Some key parts of that leaders and public opinion into line with the coun- assistance have been very slow to arrive.As we con- try’s traditionally strong pro-American policies. tinue to encourage the government to improve its And we will have to work even harder to convince security and to work with it on combating global Kenyans and the Kenyan government about the terrorism, we must deliver on what we promise, or rightness and efficacy of those policies. run the risk of undermining our credibility and support in an area of great concern. We should do everything we can to sup- Creative Economic Packages port Kenya’s new democratic government, Fourth, we need to be more creative in helping Kenya to jump-start the revitalization of its econo- to demonstrate our support for the coun- my. It is important that Kenya’s economic growth go hand-in-hand with its resurgent democratic try’s democratic process and the shared practices. Kenya’s government has set some lofty goals we hold. economic goals—creation of 500,000 new jobs and 100,000 new or refurbished housing units—and stimulating foreign direct investment. Democracy Dividend Is Needed Given Kenya’s importance, we need to reach Second, Kenya deserves a democracy dividend deeper into our diplomatic and development tool because of the enormous success of its December kit to find ways to aid Kenya. Kenya should be a 2002 elections. In the past few years, a half dozen prime candidate for the millennium challenge states in sub-Saharan Africa have held national account, and we should consider establishing a elections. With only one or two exceptions, most $50-75 million investment fund exclusively for 6 of those elections have been deeply flawed and Kenya, along the lines of the funds we have sup- KENYA: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS

ported for Hungary and Poland. We should use should be able to get the financial relief package and TDA funds more aggressively to stimulate large- the international financial good house keeping seal scale direct investment in the housing sector, of approval that will restore investor confidence, revamp the telecommunications sector and to infuse more money into the economy and help expand industrial production. We should create a restore business confidence at home and abroad. small U.S.-Kenyan trade council to explore other Kenya has the ingredients to succeed. It has one areas of bilateral cooperation in the economic and of the strongest educational systems in Africa, with trade sectors and organize a series of highly over sixteen universities and one of the highest focussed trade missions to stir interest in particular rates of literacy on the continent.This has helped to economic sectors. create the largest non-oil and non-mineral based economy in sub-Saharan Africa and one of the The Bilateral Agenda Should Not Be Dominated By Terrorist most deeply rooted business and professional classes Issues in Africa today—probably second only to . Finally, we must not allow the issue of counter ter- There is no doubt that Kenya has the largest and rorism—despite its obvious importance to us all— most diversified economy in the region and with to dominate or distort our overall agenda and rela- the success of the December 27 elections, it now tionship with Kenya. Although there are concerns has one of the strongest democracies in Africa. in both Washington and London about how rapid- If we in Washington (and other major western ly and effectively Kenya has responded to the ter- capitols) play our part by recognizing Kenya’s polit- rorist threat that exists in the country, we must not ical renewal, its on-going regional importance and lose sight of Kenya’s overriding economic, political its significant economic potential, we can help and military importance to the U.S. Making coop- Kenya successfully overcome the challenges it faces. eration on security and counter terrorism a center- That, of course, is in our common interest. piece of our relationship will distort and eventually sour our relationship. The views presented here are those of the writer and do Kenya’s Prospects Remain Bright not represent the views of the Department of State or its Despite its multiple challenges, Kenya’s prospects Africa Bureau. Ambassador Johnnie Carson is currently remain good. If Kenya can successfully reestablish its Senior Vice President at the National Defense University relationship with the IMF and the World Bank, it in Washington, D.C.

7 The Africa Program

Under director Howard Wolpe, the Africa Program serves as a forum for informed debate about both the multiple challenges and opportunities that face Africa, and about American interests in, and policy toward, the continent. It facilitates dialogue among policymakers, academic specialists, the business community, and non-governmental organizations on all policy-related African issues.

Presently, the Africa Program is composed of four core elements: public forums and issue conferences; a major capacity-building initiative in war-torn Burundi; an Africanist Doctoral Candidate Summer Fellowship program; and a Congressional Staff Africa program.

THE WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS Gretchen M. Gorog, William E. Grayson, Ronald Greenberg, Lee H. Hamilton, President and Director Raymond A. Guenter, Edward L. Hardin, Jr., Jean L. Hennessey, Eric Hotung, John L. Howard, Darrell E. Issa, Jerry Jasinowski, BOARD OF TRUSTEES Joseph B. Gildenhorn, Chair; David A. Metzner, Vice Chair. Brenda LaGrange Johnson, Shelly Kamins, Edward W. Kelley, Public Members: James H. Billington, Librarian of Congress; Jr., Anastasia D. Kelly, Christopher J. Kennan, Michael V. John W. Carlin, Archivist of the United States; Bruce Cole, Kostiw, Steven Kotler, William H. Kremer, Raymond Learsy, Chair, National Endowment for the Humanities; Roderick R. Abbe Lane Leff, Perry Leff, Dennis LeVett, Francine Levinson, Paige, Secretary, U.S. Department of Education; Colin L. Harold O. Levy, David Link, Frederic V. Malek, David S. Mandel, Powell, Secretary, U.S. Department of State; Lawrence M. John P. Manning, Jeffrey A. Marcus, Jay Mazur, Robert McCarthy, Linda McCausland, Stephen G. McConahey, Donald Small, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution; Tommy G. Thompson, Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human F. McLellan, J. Kenneth Menges, Jr., Philip Merrill, Kathryn Services. Private Citizen Members: Joseph A. Cari, Jr., Carol Mosbacher, Jeremiah L. Murphy, Martha T. Muse, Della Cartwright, Donald E. Garcia, Bruce S. Gelb, Daniel L. Lamaute, Newman, John E. Osborn, Paul Hae Park, Gerald L. Parsky, Tamala L. Longaberger, Thomas R. Reedy Michael J. Polenske, Donald Robert Quartel, Jr., J. John L. Richardson, Margaret Milner Richardson, Larry D. Richman, WILSON COUNCIL Carlyn Ring, Edwin Robbins, Robert G. Rogers, Otto Ruesch, B. Bruce S. Gelb, President. Diane Aboulafia-D'Jaen, Elias F. Francis Saul, III, Alan Schwartz, Timothy R. Scully, J. Michael Aburdene, Charles S. Ackerman, B.B. Andersen, Cyrus A. Shepherd, George P. Shultz, Raja W. Sidawi, Debbie Siebert, Ansary, Lawrence E. Bathgate II, John Beinecke, Joseph C. Bell, Thomas L. Siebert, Kenneth Siegel, Ron Silver, William A. Steven Alan Bennett, Rudy Boschwitz, A. Oakley Brooks, Melva Slaughter, James H. Small, Thomas F. Stephenson, Norma Bucksbaum, Charles W. Burson, Conrad Cafritz, Nicola L. Kline Tiefel, Mark C. Treanor, Anthony G. Viscogliosi, Christine Caiola, Raoul L. Carroll, Scott Carter, Albert V. Casey, Mark M. Warnke, Ruth Westheimer, Pete Wilson, Deborah Wince- Chandler, Peter B. Clark, Melvin Cohen, William T. Coleman, Jr., Smith, Herbert S. Winokur, Jr., Paul Martin Wolff, Joseph Michael D. DiGiacomo, Sheldon Drobny, F. Samuel Eberts III, J. Zappala, Nancy M. Zirkin, Richard S. Ziman David Eller, Mark Epstein, Melvyn J. Estrin, Sim Farar, Susan Farber, Joseph H. Flom, John H. Foster, Charles Fox, Barbara One Woodrow Wilson Plaza Hackman Franklin, Norman Freidkin, Morton Funger, Gregory 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW M. Gallo, Chris G. Gardiner, Steven J. Gilbert, Alma Washington, DC 20004-3027 Gildenhorn, David F. Girard-diCarlo, Michael B. Goldberg, www.wilsoncenter.org