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Ukraine and Russia–2014 : Ukraine and Russia–2014 Disclaimer Contact the Geospatial Technologies Project geotech © Copyright 2015 Geospatial Technologies Project Program Associate Acknowledgement Introduction- ! The!Geospatial!Technologies!and!Human!Rights!Project!of!the!American!Association!for!the! Advancement!of!Science!(AAAS)!has!undertaken!analysis!of!the!crisis!between!Ukraine!and! Russia!using!highHresolution!satellite!imagery.!This!analysis!forms!part!of!a!broader!study!aimed! at!investigating!crossHborder!conflicts!to!identify!early!warning!signs!to!aid!in!future!conflict! prevention!efforts.!HighHresolution!satellite!imagery!provides!a!particularly!useful!tool!for! monitoring!and!quantifying!key!metrics!in!border!conflicts,!such!as!troop!deployments!and!the! movement!of!military!vehicles.!By!documenting!these!indicators,!geospatial!analysis!can! provide!clarity!in!circumstances!where!other!data!are!ambiguous,!incomplete,!disguised,!or! concealed.! !! Conflicting!narratives!regarding!events!on!the!ground!have!defined!the!situation!in!Ukraine.! Following!months!of!protest!in!the!Ukrainian!capital!of!Kiev,!which!culminated!in!the!ouster!of! former!president!Viktor!Yanukovich,!proHRussian!protests!in!the!southern!Ukrainian!region!of! Crimea!emerged!in!early!2014.!These!quickly!escalated!on!27H28!February,!when!uniformed! armed!troops!lacking!identifying!insignia!seized!Simferopol!International!Airport!and!a!military! airfield!in!Sevastopol.1!While!the!Russian!government!initially!denied!involvement!in!these! events,!the!vehicles!and!military!hardware!associated!with!the!unidentified!armed!groups!led! many!observers!to!suspect!that!they!were!Russian!troops!acting!as!part!of!a!coordinated! military!campaign!–!a!deployment!to!which!Russia!admitted!on!17!April!2014.2! ! Following!a!referendum,!the!legitimacy!of!which!was!strongly!questioned!by!international! bodies,!including!the!Organization!for!Security!and!Cooperation!in!Europe!(OSCE)!and!the! European!Union,!Russia!formally!annexed!Crimea!on!18!March.!Ten!days!later,!United!States! (US)!President!Barack!Obama!expressed!concern!about!the!large!numbers!of!Russian!troops! reported!to!be!massing!near!Ukraine’s!borders,!and!called!on!Moscow!to!deHescalate!the! tensions!in!the!region.3!Russian!president!Putin!reportedly!ordered!a!partial!withdrawal!of! those!troops!on!31!March,!!although!NATO!reported!that!it!had!seen!no!evidence!of!a! redeployment!of!forces.4!Tensions!heightened!further!on!7!April,!when!proHRussian!groups! occupied!government!buildings!in!the!eastern!Ukrainian!cities!of!Donetsk,!Luhansk,!and! Kharkiv,!in!a!move!that!US!Secretary!of!State!John!Kerry!claimed!was!the!result!of!paid!agents! provacateurs!“determined!to!create!chaos.”5!On!10!April,!Supreme!Headquarters!Allied!Powers! Europe!(SHAPE),!the!headquarters!of!one!of!NATO’s!two!military!commands,!released! commercial!satellite!imagery!depicting!what!it!claimed!was!evidence!of!the!Russian!military! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1!For!a!timeline!of!events!see:!BBC!News,!“Ukraine!Crisis:Timeline”!http://www.bbc.com/news/worldHmiddleHeastH26248275;!AlHJazeera,! “Timeline:!Ukraine’s!Political!Crisis”!http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/03/timelineHukraineHpoliticalHcrisisH 201431143722854652.html.!! 2!The!New!York!Times.!“Away!from!Show!of!Diplomacy!in!Geneva,!Putin!Puts!On!a!Show!of!His!Own.”!17!April!2014! http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/18/world/europe/russiaHukraine.html?hp&_r=0!accessed!on!2!March!2015.! 3!See!note!1.! 4!See!note!1.! 5!The!Washington!Post.!8!April!2014!“At!Senate!budget!hearing,!Kerry!verbally!duels!with!critics!of!Obama!Foreign!Policy.”! http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/nationalHsecurity/atHsenateHbudgetHhearingHkerryHverballyHduelsHwithHcriticsHofHobamaHforeignH policy/2014/04/08/f325a41aHbf4cH11e3Hb574Hf8748871856a_story.html!accessed!on!2!March!2015.! ! 3! buildup!on!Ukraine’s!borders.6!Russian!state!media!contested!the!validity!of!this!imagery!the! same!day,!quoting!an!unnamed!“senior!official!at!the!General!Staff!of!the!Russian!Armed! Forces,”!who!claimed!that!the!images!showed!routine!exercises!which!took!place!“in#the# summer#of#[2013]…including#near#the#Ukrainian#border.”7! ! Due!to!the!volatile!situation,!the!high!level!of!uncertainty!related!to!events!on!the!ground,!and! conflicting!accounts!being!disseminated!by!the!actors!involved,!AAAS!conducted!research!on! multiple!locations!in!Russia!and!Ukraine!using!highHresolution!satellite!imagery.!This! investigation!is!focused!on!military!installations!and!activities!in!Russia!and!Ukraine,!particularly! those!sites!that!have!been!identified!as!areas!of!conflict!or!of!a!buildup!of!offensive!forces,! including!the!port!and!city!of!Sevastopol,!the!base!of!Russia’s!Black!Sea!Fleet,!other!areas!on! the!Crimean!peninsula,!and!areas!of!reported!military!deployments!in!southwestern!Russia.!The! objectives!of!this!study!are!to!characterize!accurately!the!situation!on!the!ground;!provide! clarification!regarding!the!controversy!over!the!imagery!released!by!NATO;!and!by!so!doing,! identify!features!that!could!serve!as!warning!signs!should!the!crisis!escalate!into!a!broader! armed!conflict.! ! # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 6!NATO!Allied!Command!Operations.!“Imagery!Reveals!Destabilizing!Russian!Forces!near!Ukraine!Border.”!10!April!2014! http://www.aco.nato.int/imageryHrevealsHdestabilizingHrussianHforcesHnearHukraineHborderHnatoHplansHbalancedHresponseHtoHreassureH allies.aspx!accessed!on!2!March!2015.! 7!RT.!“NATO’s!Russian!troop!buildHup!satellite!images!‘show!2013!drills’.”!10!April!2014!http://rt.com/news/natoHsatelliteHimagesHdrillsH712/! accessed!on!2!March!2015.! ! 4! Figure#1:#Locations#of#sites#analyzed#in#this#report# # ! ! 5! Data-and-Methods- # Using!information!regarding!the!locations!of!Russian!and!Ukrainian!military!bases8!as!well!as! official!statements!and!news!media!reports,!AAAS!acquired!multiple!images!of!the!area!of! Sevastopol,!as!well!as!southwestern!Russia!and!eastern!Ukraine.!The!region!was!imaged! frequently!in!the!days!following!the!escalation!of!events!in!Crimea,!and!the!increase!in!tensions! in!Russia!and!eastern!Ukraine.!Figure!1!provides!an!overview!of!the!locations!analyzed!in!this! report,!and!Table!1!provides!an!accounting!of!the!imagery!analyzed.!The!dates!of!acquisition! were!provided!by!DigitalGlobe,!the!commercial!vendor!that!owns!and!operates!the!satellites! used!to!capture!the!imagery.! ! Table!1:!Imagery!Acquired*! Date- Sensor- Image-ID- 2!July!2012! WorldViewH1! 102001001B972100! 7!July!2013! WorldViewH1! 1020010024EBFE00! 25!October!2013! WorldViewH1! 1020010025AFAD00! 11!December!2013! WorldViewH2! 103001002A53D900! 5!February!2014! QuickBirdH2! 101001001256FC00! 10!March!2014! WorldViewH1! 102001002B07EB00! 10!March!2014! QuickBirdH2! 1010010012706D00! 12!March!2014**! QuickBirdH2! 1010010012720700! 18!March!2014! WorldViewH2! 103001002E56EF00! 22!March!2014! WorldViewH1! 102001002CC5F800! 23!March!2014! WorldViewH1! 102001002B93F500! 26!March!2014! WorldViewH1! 102001002EB76300! 27!March!2014! WorldViewH1! 102001002BA15900! 27!March!2014! WorldViewH1! 102001002D811100! 30!March!2014! WorldViewH2! 103001002F655500! 30!March!2014! WorldViewH2! 103001002E487E00! 5!April!2014! WorldViewH1! 102001002DE9FB00! *All!imagery!acquired!via!DigitalGlobe,!NextView!license! **Image!does!not!cover!full!extent!of!study!area! ! Results- # Sevastopol# # Analysis!of!Sevastopol!focused!on!the!documentation!of!Russian!military!bases!and!port! facilities!within!and!near!the!city.!Analysis!of!the!imagery!resulted!in!a!number!of!observations! that!can!be!grouped!into!two!broad!categories:!those!involving!landHbased!forces!(e.g.,!vehicle! and!troop!deployments);!and!those!associated!with!naval!activity,!such!as!ship!movements.9! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 8!Obtained!via!globalsecurity.org!and!other!online!sources.! 9!Although!both!a!military!airfield!and!a!helicopter!facility!are!present!in!Sevastopol,!AAAS!noted!no!aircraft!activity!in!the!city!during!the!study! period.! ! 6! Russia!operates!numerous!shoreHbased!military!facilities!in!and!around!Sevastopol.!Analysis!of! these!facilities!revealed!hundreds!of!military!vehicles!parked!in!depots!throughout!the!area.!In! itself,!the!presence!of!these!vehicles!is!not!suggestive!of!any!buildHup!of!forces!or!offensive! military!preparations!H!the!vast!majority!of!the!vehicles!were!present!prior!to!the!crisis!and! remained!stationary!throughout!the!duration!of!the!study!period.!In!some!instances,!however,! changes!in!the!distribution!of!vehicles!were!noted!that!could!be!explained!by!engagement!in! operations!outside!the!confines!of!their!bases,!as!shown!in!Figure!2.!Particularly!notable!is!the! absence!of!nine!BTRH80/82!armored!personnel!carriers,!which!the!Black!Sea!Fleet’s!marine! garrison!is!known!to!possess.10!Caution!is!necessary!when!advancing!this!interpretation,! however,!as!other!explanations!for!their!activity!are!also!plausible,!such!as!routine! maintenance.!If!the!disappearances!of!these!vehicles!were!related!to!military!activity,!one! possible!destination!for!them!was!identified!southeast!of!Sevastopol,!where!by!10!March!a! roadblock!was!observed!to!have!been!erected!across!both!lanes!of!an!overpass!of!the!NH19! highway!leading!into!and!out!of!the!city!(Figure!3).!! ! # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 10!RIA!Novosti.!“Russia!Tests!New!Amphibious!Armored!Vehicle.”,!11!April!2013!http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20130411/180588771.html;!
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