The Black Sea and the Turkish Straits: Resurgent Strategic Importance in the 21St Century

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The Black Sea and the Turkish Straits: Resurgent Strategic Importance in the 21St Century The Black Sea and the Turkish Straits: Resurgent Strategic Importance in the 21st Century THESIS Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Andrew M. Hascher Graduate Program in Slavic and East European Studies The Ohio State University 2019 Master’s Examination Committee Angela Brintlinger, PhD, Advisor Yana Hashamova, PhD Rudy Hightower, PhD Copyrighted by Andrew M. Hascher 2019 Abstract The Black Sea and the Turkish Straits have played an important geopolitical role in the world since the time of antiquity, despite the Black Sea being a geographically closed body of water. The objective of this paper is to articulate the importance of the Black Sea region as a source of geopolitical power, both historically and moving into the future. Of particular importance are the power dynamics between the Russian Federation, Turkey and the West. This paper reviews the history of the region and the major treaties over time which attempted to answer the “Straits Question” of access to and from the Black Sea via the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits. Then analysis of the current geopolitical situation and a projection for the future of the region is offered based on the research. Analysis of the history and diplomacy of the area shows that the major actors continue to place a great deal of strategic importance on their territorial claims, military position and economic standing in the Black Sea region. The evidence shows that the Russians place an enormous level of importance on the Black Sea as it holds their only viable warm water ports. Furthermore, they have a long history of breaking regional treaties in what seem to be repeated attempts to renegotiate and improve their Black Sea presence. Turkey has their own ambitions in the region but are not presently in a position to challenge Russia, or the diplomatic status quo. Trends over time suggest that this may change in the coming years if the Turks are able to complete their canal project near Istanbul. An understanding of the regional history is important for policy makers when considering future treaties and setting strategic direction for diplomatic, military and economic operations in the region. ii Vita May 2003…………………………………….Medina High School December 2007………………………………B.A. Criminal Justice, Bowling Green State University December 2007 to Present……………………U.S. Army Officer Fields of Study Major Field: Slavic and East European Studies Disclaimer Andrew Hascher is a Major in the United States Army. The United States Army has provided funding for tuition in pursuit of his Master’s Degree as part of the Foreign Area Officer program education requirements. This paper is the academic work of Andrew Hascher and does not reflect the official position of the United States Army, Department of Defense, or any entity of the United States Government. iii Table of Contents Abstract……………………………………………………………………………………………ii Table of Contents…………………………………………………………………………………iv List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………………..v Chapter 1: Introduction…………………………………………………………………………....1 Chapter 2: History…………………………………………………………………………………7 Antiquity: Greek and Roman Colonization……………………………….7 Ottoman Imperial Control………………………………………………...10 Post World War 1…………………………………………………………13 The Cold War……………………………………………………………..19 Post Soviet Union…………………………………………………………20 Chapter 3: Diplomacy………..…………………………………………………………………..24 The Straits Question……………………………………………………….24 Pre-Montreux Convention…………………………………………………25 The Montreux Convention…………………………………………………33 The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea……………………40 Chapter 4: Security…………………………………………………………………………..…..42 Chapter 5: Implications and Conclusions………………………………………………………..56 References………………………………………………………………………………………..64 iv List of Figures Figure 1: Crimea Annexation Exclusive Economic Zone Map…………………………………...4 Figure 2: Ottoman Empire Expansion Map……………………………………………………...12 Figure 3: Post WWI Ukraine Territorial Map……………………………………………………16 Figure 4: Exclusive Economic Zone Map of the Black Sea……………………………………..40 v Chapter 1: Introduction The Russians and Bulgarians call it Chernoye More, the Ukrainians Chorne More, Romanians Marea Neagră, the Georgians call it Shavi Zghva, the Turks call it Karadeniz, the world knows it as the Black Sea. Each of these nation-states share a littoral border on the Black Sea, and all have geopolitical interest in maintaining their access and use of the inland sea. Turkish borders exist on both sides of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, effectively giving the Turks complete control of the world’s access to the Black Sea, and perhaps more importantly, control over the maritime access of the Black Sea riparian states to the rest of the world. Since the time of antiquity, the Black Sea and Turkish Straits have played an important geopolitical role in the world, despite the fact the Black Sea has always been a geographically closed body of water. The recorded importance of the Black Sea and Turkish Straits extends all the way into the history and mythology of Ancient Greece and continues through today. The strategically important location of the Black Sea, and the varied interests on and around it over the centuries, have kept this region in a state of perpetual contest. This thesis will explore the history of imperial claims on the Black Sea, its unique place in the realm of international trade and maritime law, and the delicate security balance we see in the region today. It is the intent of this thesis to articulate how the Black Sea has always been, and will continue to be in the the 21st century, a source of geopolitical power. Of particular importance are the power dynamics between the Russian Federation, Turkey and the West. For the purposes of this paper, the West is defined as the Western Europe, the United States of America, and those countries who make up the NATO alliance, depending on the particular time period being discussed. Turkey’s interests are considered as an entity separate from their 1 place within the NATO alliance, as they have distinct historic and geographic considerations, as well as unilateral geopolitical ambitions concerning the Black Sea. For Russia the Black Sea is paramount to geopolitical strategy. Because Russia’s only warm-water naval ports are on the Black Sea, in order to effectively project naval power the Russians must not only exert control of the sea, but also have unrestricted access to the Dardenelles and Bosphorus Straits. The famed Russian Black Sea fleet, headquartered in Sevastopol, has ensured Russian military primacy on the Black Sea for hundreds of years. The other riparian states of the Black Sea have their own interests however because these states do not rise to the level of great powers, and because they have historically found themselves alligned with one of the aforementioned power, they will be separately evaluated as appropriate. The Black Sea is approximately 730 miles wide from west to east, and has a surface area of 168,500 square miles. Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine share coastal frontage on the Black Sea. 8 major rivers flow into the Black Sea, effectively linking not only the coastal states, but also Moldova, Germany, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, and Belarus. 1 2 These rivers allow otherwise land locked countries access to maritime trade opportunities, while obviating the need or opportunity to maintain a navy.3 Furthermore, after centuries of being a source of economic importance in Europe, the Danube was linked to the Rhine via the Rhine-Main-Danube Canal. Completed in 1992, this canal effectively linked the 1 The 8 major rivers that flow into the Black Sea are: 1- Danube, 2- Dnieper, 3- Southern Bug, 4- Dniester, 5- Don, 6- Kuban, 7- Rioni, and 8- Kizilirmak 2 Germany, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia and Serbia are linked via the Danube River, and Belarus is linked via the Dnieper River, though development work would be required to make the Belarusian portion of the river to be navigable. Moldova is linked via both the Danube and Dniester Rivers, as is the breakaway and internationally unrecognized Transnistrian region. 3 In a modern context, the only land locked countries would be Austria and Hungary, however, in the history of Europe, with its every changing borders, this would have effected a variety of former nation states, such as the Kingdom of Bavaria. As such, the Danube has played an important historic role in the economic development of Europe. 2 whole of Europe via navigatable riverway, from the North Sea at the Rhine Delta in the Netherlands to the Black Sea at the Danube Delta in Romania.4 Modern maritime shipping in the Black Sea and Turkish Straits is responsible for a wide variety of goods being brought to the global market. Perhaps most notable are the energy products of Russia, the South Caucasus region, and Turkey. Oil and natural gas are brought from as far away as the Caspian Sea via pipelines, then transit the Black Sea in both ships and further pipelines. The Black Sea itself is thought to hold vast quantities of oil and gas, and riparian states have invested in projects to exploit these resources. For example, in 2018 the Romanian energy company Black Sea Oil and Gas completed several explorative drilling missions in a bid to establish a permanent off-shore drilling site.5 While the 2018 attempts did not prove to be commercially viable, the Black Sea riparian states and much of Europe have great
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