The Foreign Policy of Russia : Changing Systems, Enduring Interests / by Robert H
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RUSSIATHE FOREIGN POLICY OF This page intentionally left blank RUSSIATHE FOREIGN POLICY OF CHANGING SYSTEMS, ENDURING INTERESTS FIFTH EDITION ROBERT H. DONALDSON JOSEPH L. NOGEE AND VIDYA NADKARNI ROUTLEDGE Routledge Taylor & Francis Group LONDON AND NEW YORK First published 2014 by M.E. Sharpe Published 2015 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business Copyright © 2014 Taylor & Francis. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Notices No responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use of operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein. Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility. Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Donaldson, Robert H., author. The foreign policy of Russia : changing systems, enduring interests / by Robert H. Donaldson, Joseph L. Nogee, Vidya Nadkarni.—Fifth edition. pages : maps ; cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-7656-4200-4 (hardcover : alk. paper)—ISBN 978-0-7656-4201-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Soviet Union—Foreign relations. 2. Russia (Federation)—Foreign relations. I. Nogee, Joseph L., author. II. Nadkarni, Vidya, author. III. Title. DK266.45.D66 2014 327.47—dc23 2013041316 ISBN 13: 9780765642011 (pbk) ISBN 13: 9780765642004 (hbk) ———— Contents ———— List of Maps vii Acronyms and Abbreviations ix Acknowledgments xi 1. Introduction 3 2. The Tsarist Roots of Russia’s Foreign Policy 17 3. Soviet Foreign Policy: From Revolution to Cold War 36 4. Soviet Foreign Policy: The Cold War 72 5. Domestic Factors in the Making of Russia’s Foreign Policy 114 6. Russia and the States of the Former Soviet Union 158 7. Yeltsin and the West 231 8. Russia and the “Non-West” 282 9. Russian Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World: The Putin Era 362 Index 425 About the Authors 437 v This page intentionally left blank ———— List of Maps ———— Commonwealth of Independent States 162 Europe 256 Asia 287 The Middle East 307 vii This page intentionally left blank —— Acronyms and Abbreviations —— ABM Anti-ballistic Missile ANC African National Congress APEC Asian and Pacific Economic Council ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BTC Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline CACO Central Asian Cooperation Organization CCP Chinese Communist Party CFE Conventional Forces in Europe CIA Central Intelligence Agency (U.S.) CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CMEA Council for Mutual Economic Assistance CPSU Communist Party of the Soviet Union CRRF Collective Rapid Reaction Force CSCE Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe CSS Commonwealth of Slavic States CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization CTBT Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty CTR Cooperative Threat Reduction DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EU European Union EURASEC Eurasian Economic Community FAPSI Federal Agency for Government Communications and Information FPS Federal Border Service FSB Federal Security Service G-6 Group of Six (States conducting nuclear negotiations with Iran: United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, China) G-7/G-8 Group of Seven (the G-8 meeting without Russia)Group of Eight Industrial Nations (Canada, France, Italy, Germany, United Kingdom, United States, Japan, Russia) G-20 The Group of 20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade ix x ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS GDR German Democratic Republic (East Germany) GNP Gross National Product GPALS Global Protection Against Limited Strikes GRU Soviet Military Intelligence Agency GUUAM Regional cooperation organization: Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan (now GUAM) (until 2005), Azerbaijan, Moldova IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IFOR Implementation Force IMF International Monetary Fund INF Intermediate Nuclear Forces KFOR Kosovo Force KGB Committee for State Security KLA Kosovo Liberation Army KPD Communist Party of Germany MFN Most Favored Nation MIRVs Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicles MPLA Movement for the People’s Liberation of Angola NACC North Atlantic Cooperation Council NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NIS Newly Independent States NKR Nagorno-Karabakh Republic NMD National Missile Defense NPT Nonproliferation Treaty NSA U.S. National Security Agency NTV Independent Television OIC Organization of the Islamic Conference ORT Public Radio and Television Broadcasting OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe PFP Partnership for Peace PLO Palestine Liberation Organization PSI Proliferation Security Initiative RSDLP Russian Social-Democratic Labor Party SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Talks SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SDI Strategic Defense Initiative SES Single Economic Space SMF Strategic Missile Forces SORT Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty SPD Social Democratic Party (Germany) START Strategic Arms Reduction Talks SVR Foreign Intelligence Service TCP Trans-Caspian Pipeline UN United Nations UNMOVIC United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission USAID U.S. Agency for International Development USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WTO World Trade Organization ———— Acknowledgments ———— We thank Daniel S. Papp, who read our original manuscript and made helpful sug- gestions. We alone are responsible for errors of fact or interpretation. We are grateful to Jonathan L. Leitch and Andrew Brooks for helpful research assistance. We also thank our respective institutions, the University of Tulsa, the University of Houston, and the University of San Diego, for their support of our work. Finally, we are grateful to our families for their encouragement and support, and for their tolerance of the many distractions from family life that writing a book entails. xi This page intentionally left blank RUSSIATHE FOREIGN POLICY OF This page intentionally left blank ———— 1 ———— Introduction We attempt in this book to provide both a description and an explanation of the foreign policy of Russia. Our time frame is largely the twentieth century and the early years of the twenty-first century, although we do reach back into the latter part of the nineteenth century. Especially over such a broad expanse of time, it is easier to describe policy than to explain it, because causality in politics involves multiple factors that are constantly changing in value. For the period of Russian politics dominated by the Soviet system, the basic character of foreign policy seemed simple. Marxist-Leninist doctrine appeared to dictate confrontation with the noncommunist world. However, foreign policy during the Soviet period was never as clear as it appeared to most contemporaries. Nonideological factors produced complex relations between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and other great powers: at times, cooperation with the West (détente), and at times, hostility to other communist regimes (e.g., Yugoslavia and China). Multiple factors shape foreign policy. Some are internal, such as the govern- ment and its political elites, the culture, economy, geography, and demography of a country. Others are external, such as foreign threats, political vacuums, and changes in the balance of power. These different factors are always changing in substance and weight, thus making it impossible to come up with a formula or model to explain or predict foreign policy. In short, foreign policy, like all politics, is dynamic. One broad generalization about Russian foreign policy that we believe to be valid is that elements of both continuity and change are always at work. Over the course of time, Russian foreign policy has exhibited many profound shifts in direction. Perhaps less obvious has been the continuity in behavior of gov- ernments headed by tsars, commissars, and presidents. In many respects, Rus- sian foreign policy has been similar to that of other great powers, and in other respects it has been unique. We begin this survey of Russian foreign policy with a preliminary analysis of the continuity and change we will be describing in Russia’s relations with the world, and of the degree to which that policy can be deemed distinctive. 3 4 INTRODUCTION Continuity and the International System To begin with the continuities and similarities, we note that as a general rule of statecraft, Russia has pursued balance-of-power policies. (Admittedly, it has not always fared well in these, as evidenced by the disaster of the 1939 Nazi-Soviet Pact,1 but in that respect also, Russia has shared a characteristic with the other great powers in the world.) In principle,