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The Rise of Russia's Cold-Water Ports

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The Rise of Russia's Cold-Water Ports The Compass Volume 1 Issue 4 Volume 1, Issue 4, The Compass Article 5 January 2017 The Rise of Russia's Cold-Water Ports Alex Merker Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.arcadia.edu/thecompass Recommended Citation Alex Merker (2017) "The Rise of Russia's Cold-Water Ports," The Compass: Vol. 1 : Iss. 4 , Article 5. Available at: https://scholarworks.arcadia.edu/thecompass/vol1/iss4/5 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@Arcadia. It has been accepted for inclusion in The Compass by an authorized editor of ScholarWorks@Arcadia. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Rise of Russia’s Cold-Water Ports By Alex Merker, Arcadia University I. Introduction Ocean, while on the seabed vast newly acces- sible petroleum reserves are being discovered. One of the most consistent pillars of Russian Together with the easy clearing of ice in ports foreign policy throughout history has been its using icebreakers, northern cold-water ports 1 pursuit of warm-water ports. Given Russia’s are quickly becoming Russia’s most valuable geographic positioning, ports which didn’t assets. freeze over during the harsh Eurasian winters The thesis of my argument is really were arguably the key to its entrance as a great quite simple. As a result of the impact of cli- power. The importance of these port cities car- mate change on access to mineral resources ried into the Soviet era, as influence stretched and trade routes, Russia no longer needs to around the world, along with the need to project pursue and control traditionally warm-water 2 power globally. However, in the age of receding ports to maintain its economic and military arctic ice and expanding hard and soft power power. To help present a clear and concise opportunities in the region, are ports such as analysis, I will refer to this thesis as the St. Petersburg or Sevastopol still necessary for cold-water transition theory, after the meteo- Russian power projection? rological nature behind this shift in potential In this paper, I will discuss how changes foreign policy possibilities. Through detailed in both climate and technology are reshaping analysis of these changes, theory applications, Russian naval ambitions. In the past and consideration of dissenting opinions, I twenty-five years, Russian foreign policy plan- intend to prove this theory. To validate my ners have not only had to adapt to political thesis, I will use existing academic theory to changes in Europe and Asia, but also changes build a foundation of credibility. The theory with their own geography. Every year, the that I believe best applies to my cold-water ice which once dominated the Siberian coast transition thesis is offensive realism. Offensive recedes in a slow but certain retreat as a realism theory dictates several key points, which result of excess carbon emissions in the atmo- fit well with current events in the Arctic Circle sphere. Where there were once vast swathes involving Russia and other regional actors. of sea ice, Open Ocean has appeared in its When examining any issue involving place. On the surface, merchant shipping can Russia’s connection to the sea, the most obvious now travel from Europe to Asia along a route starting point is to briefly consider its much faster and safer than those in the Indian 1“The Russian Quest for Warm Water Ports,” GlobalSecurity.org, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/warm-water-port.htm. 2Fukuyama, Francis, Scott Bruckner, and Sally Stoecker, Soviet Political Perspectives on Power Projection. Ft. Belvoir: Defense Technical Information Center, 1987. 7 geographic positioning and climate. The power, having played a pivotal role in the de- vast majority of Russian economic power is velopment of the Russian and Soviet Empires. situated far from the shore, in landlocked population centers such as Moscow.3 Though II. Analysis not a large hindrance on its own, this posi- Analysis Overview tioning becomes far more troublesome with the consideration of the Eurasian climate. Of course, in order to even attempt to prove With much of Russian territory straddling the a theory that disagrees with conventional Arctic Circle, weather conditions are a serious wisdom, a great deal of evidence must be burden to economic development and political brought in to support such claims. There are expansion. Considered by many to be Russia’s many different factors at work in cold-water most notable feature, the Eurasian winter is transition theory, all of which stem from the harsh and unforgiving. With temperatures central belief that climate change is a real dropping as low as negative sixty-eight de- and actively occurring shift in earth’s meteo- grees Celsius, life can crawl to a standstill rological conditions. The resulting reduction during winter months.4 of arctic sea ice from rising temperatures then Of course, the climate conditions of the creates a large number of opportunities for Russian winter not only hinder travel by land, Russia and the rest of the world, which will but travel by sea as well. In the early years of be examined in this analysis. Such opportuni- the Russian Empire, the only ports within its ties include new sea lanes, access to mineral territory froze over during the winter, requir- resources, and multi-ocean access for arctic ing the empire to seek out warm-water ports states, among a great many possibilities. In if it ever wished to compete on the interna- this section I will use evidence to support my tional stage with the other European powers. claim that there exists sufficient proof that Warm-water ports can be defined as harbors these factors signal the beginning of the end which do not freeze over at any time of the of Russian reliance on warm-water ports to year; while their counterpart, cold-water maintain its current position in world affairs. ports, can be defined as harbors whose waters freeze over during parts of the year. To ad- Climate Change dress this issue and establish Russia as a true At the very root of cold-water transition European power, Tsar Peter the Great set out theory is the overwhelming evidence of global to claim such a port. This quest resulted in climate change.6,7 Whether it is manmade, the conquest of what is modern day St. Peters- or a result of natural climate conditions, the burg and other warm-water port cities, events reality of climate change is nearly scientifi- which directly resulted in Russia’s ascendance cally undeniable. This is supported by an ever 5 onto the world stage. These ports continue to increasing be economic and military centers of Russian 3“The Russian Quest for Warm Water Ports,” GlobalSecurity.org. 4Etty, John. “Russia’s Climate and Geography,” History Today. (Accessed November 23, 2015). http://www.historytoday.com/john- etty/russia%E2%80%99s-climate-and-geography. 5”The Russian Quest for Warm Water Ports,” GlobalSecurity.org. 6Schulte, Klaus Martin. “Scientific Consensus on Climate Change?” :Energy & Environment: Vol 19, No 2. July 29, 2009. Accessed November 23, 2015. 7Oreskes, Namoi. “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” American Association for the Advancement of Science, (2004). 8 number of scientific foundations, both nation- becomes apparent that there are very genuine al and international, coming to an agreement changes occurring which can have a consid- that the earth’s meteorological systems are erable impact geographically, but politically changing.8,9,10 The process behind this is com- as well. In what can be considered one of the plicated, but can be simplified to a few key most immediately visible changes, the arctic points. ice cap which connects with Russian Siberia According to the Intergovernmental has begun to recede. According to statistics Panel on Climate Change, scientists have a by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric ninety-five percent certainty that the root Administration, and backed up by numerous cause of climate change is a global increase of published reports in well-known scientific greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, in journals, the total area coverage of contigu- the earth’s atmosphere as a result of human ous sea ice in the arctic ocean has declined and geologic activities.11 As these gases build between six-seven percent every decade since up in the atmosphere, they create an ever record keeping began in the 1970s.14,15 This strengthening blanket that traps heat in reduction is most pronounced in areas of energy. A similar process can be observed on ocean and coastline claimed and owned by the planet Venus, albeit caused by volcanism Russia, with a great deal of previously im- and on a much more dramatic scale.12 The passible sections of sea now open year round. increased atmospheric temperature changes The significance of this occurrence cannot be both water and land temperatures, causing underscored nearly enough, and is the basis glaciers and snowpack to melt at far greater for cold-water transition theory.. rates than can be replaced, resulting in even The resulting change in ice coverage more carbon dioxide being released into the during winter months brings an important air in the process. Because of the fluidity of question: are northern cities still cold-wa- earth’s weather systems, changes can be very ter ports after climate change? Though the dynamic, causing very strong storm systems original definition of a cold-water port would that vary from drought to typhoons.13 Over- include winter icing, this is no longer the all, these changes may appear contrary to the case. However, for the duration of this paper I term “global warming”; however, they are in will continue to call traditionally warm-water fact a strong indicator for what is a broad in- ports by that name, with the same applying crease in temperature that can still result in to cold-water ports.
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