Backroom Bravado
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2 The German Times • Politics October 2020 continued from page 1 In contrast to the annexa- tion of Crimea in 2014 – a move that was supported by a majority of people in Russia – surveys conducted by the Backroom bravado Moscow-based Levada Center showed that only 13 percent of respondents were in favor of As both big-tent German parties gear up for the post-Merkel era, incorporating Belarus. “Most the candidate carousel is in full swing of the people surveyed think the relationship with Belarus should stay the way it is.” Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer quent foreign policy expert, more to take vocal credit for all he had However, a little more than The threat of a Russian BY LUTZ LICHTENBERGER was the early front runner. The respected than admired, have all done. Söder quickly became the half a year later, on Aug. 10, the invasion is presumably being 58-year-old had been serving as thrown their hats into the ring. Andrew Cuomo to Laschet’s Ron party empire struck back. The used more as a diversionary er era will have to come minister president of the small On March 1, Laschet would have DeSantis, the governors of New SPD’s all-powerful steering com- tactic in Moscow’s effort to to an end eventually. southwestern state of Saar- been a better’s best choice; he had York and Florida whose pandemic mittee, having already nixed a stabilize Lukashenko in less HAngela Merkel has been land until Merkel tapped her to government experience, enjoyed policies were a study in contrast. premature end to the coalition, obvious ways and thereby German chancellor since 2005; become the CDU’s general secre- broad appeal with his folksy and It did not take long for specu- was especially dissatisfied with further increase his depen- you would have to look long and tary, an influential post often dou- joyful demeanor and was the right lations to surface in Berlin as to Esken’s unorthodox and loose dence on the Kremlin. If suc- hard to find another politician bling as stepping-stone to higher man to cross every aisle. whether Söder was priming for a style, and in a truly topsy-turvy cessful, this approach would holding a country’s top political office. When Merkel resigned But over the summer, his erratic joint nomination by the CDU and move nominated Scholz, the loser make the existing union position for so long, autocracies from her party post one year and wavering handling of the pan- the CSU for the chancellorship in of the primary, to stand as the between Belarus and Russia and banana republics excluded. later, AKK, as she is often called, demic – seen as too lenient, too 2021. candidate for chancellor next fall. much stronger – a relation- But Merkel has unequivocally narrowly won the intra-party eager to “reopen” – shone a different Laschet could eke out a win in the Esken and Walter-Borjans had to ship that has so far been more stated she will not run for office contest, besting two candidates light on the leader. Fairly or not, he race for the leadership of the Chris- publicly approve what has to be of an administrative agree- again in fall 2021, one year from who explicitly wanted to change is now considered rather unsteady, tian Democrats against Merz and considered an all-out repudiation ment than an actual union now, in the Bundestag elections. Merkel’s course, both symboli- indecisive and a bit of a panderer to Röttgen – with their once-promis- of their political viability. of states. In the past several Her announcement in late 2018 cally and in terms of policy. the COVID-19-denying crowd. ing runs now mere afterthoughts Current polling suggests years, Lukashenko has pur- and her subsequent resignation – and still not get the nomination at that the Social Democrats will sued a seesaw policy of resist- as chair of her party, the center- the party’s convention in Decem- receive 16 percent of the vote. ing Moscow’s insistence on right Christian Democratic Union ber. Söder still has to declare his Scholz would have to beat out closer ties between the two (CDU), during a time when her The biggest question in candidacy. Most likely he will delay the Greens, currently polling one states while intermittently approval ratings were on a precip- his declaration for as long as pos- to two points ahead, for second offering his services to the EU. itous downturn, did not make her German political circles is who sible while gauging his chances. As place and then hope to form a But now that Lukashenko has a proverbial lame duck; it brought is befitting the era of the pandemic coalition with them and the Left been discredited as an election her a confined yet unequivocal will be tapped by Merkel's we are living through, all bets are Party. It is a narrow path to vic- fraudster, the only thing he new lease on power. In fact, it off concerning the future. tory. has left to secure his political gave Merkel room to operate free party to be its candidate for The Social Democrats (SPD), The CDU and CSU, currently at survival is his close relation- of the common ills that often face the coalition partner of the CDU/ 37 percent, will most likely court ship to Russia. democratic politicians with an chancellor CSU, has had its own turbulent the Greens to form an unprec- In this regard, Russian Prime overly cautious eye on reelection. leadership rumblings. edented partnership. Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s She no longer has to try to please After its first female party chair, The eco-friendly Greens have visit to Minsk on Sept. 3 was every constituency. A physicist by AKK won by adhering to Enter Markus Söder. The min- Andrea Nahles, resigned in anger moved closer to the center, posi- instructive. The official reason training, Merkel’s rather uncharis- Merkel’s legacy while carefully ister president of Bavaria, Ger- over intra-party bickering in June tioning the party as the sensible for the visit was to discuss matic, somber, almost scientific staking out her own political ter- many’s second-biggest state, and 2019, the SPD held its first-ever choice for traditional bleeding- the billions of rubles of debt style of governing, allowing her ritory. And yet, due to sinking head of the CDU’s sister-party, election for the party’s top post in heart liberals and the affluent owed to Russia by Belarus to dissect a problem with surgical approval ratings, rhetorical mis- the Christian Social Union, has which all party members, not just cosmopolitan latte-drinking pro- and to conclude an agreement accuracy, has served her best. Big steps and regional electoral losses, long been defined as the opposite several hundred delegates, were gressives. The leadership duo of about energy supplies. In the ideas, sweeping visions and grand a frustrated Kramp-Karrenbauer of Laschet: too ambitious, calcu- eligible; it was more akin to a US- Annalena Baerbock and Robert context of Mishustin’ visit, oratory are not her cup of tea. stepped down in February just lating, combative. style primary. Habeck project just enough sur- Lukashenko shuffled around a Merkel’s largely deft handling of before the pandemic claimed all In early 2018, Söder, for all intents Candidates were encouraged to face charisma to brush over the number of high-level security the COVID-19 pandemic – both headlines and attention. and purposes, succeeded in forc- run on two-person tickets each unresolved policy conflicts that officials. the death rate and the economic The party’s poll numbers imme- ing out his predecessor, Horst See- comprising a woman and a man. come with being open for both Ivan Tertel was named the downturn have been limited com- diately went back up due to the hofer. It was the culmination of a In a surprise outcome in the final a center-right and a center-left new head of the Belarusian pared to other states in the Euro- German version of the “rally years-long bare-knuckles intramu- round, Saskia Esken and Norbert coalition. The Greens are in an secret service (KGB), replac- pean Union and overseas – has 'round the flag” effect that typi- ral struggle that eventually got him Walter-Borjans defeated Klara enviable position, as both the ing Valery Vakulchik. London- boosted her party’s poll numbers cally rewards the party in power his self-proclaimed dream post. Geywitz and Olaf Scholz. Scholz, Union and the SPD desperately based political scientist Mark Galeotti sees Vakulchik’s repeated resistance to inter- ference by Moscow as the PICTURE ALLIANCE reason for his ousting. Gale- otti also argues that the switch at the top spot of the secret service was carried out under pressure from Moscow, noting that Tertel likely has a better relationship to the Russian secret service (FSB). These moves are an indica- tion that the Kremlin is com- mitted to strengthening coop- eration on different levels. On one level, Moscow supports Lukashenko’s power appara- tus by deploying Russian “con- sultants” at various key con- tact points. The impact of this tactic is already felt in Belaru- sian media; after a number of journalists and technicians were fired, Russian colleagues took over their duties. In the meantime, these “Russian aides” have no doubt been installed in many other fields. Most recently, after hosting Lukashenko for talks at his residence in Sochi on Sept. 14, Putin made an announce- ment pledging a loan of $1.5 billion to Belarus in response to Lukashenko’s plea that “a friend is in trouble, and I say that sincerely.” Whether Rus- sian aid remains purely mon- Close pre-Corona, rivals now: Armin Laschet (left) and Markus Söder etary is an open question.