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SECRETARIAT WELCOMING LETTER...... 8 USG FOR crisis committees WELCOMING LETTER...... 9 DAIS and crisis director WELCOMING LETTER...... 10 Invitation from Angela Merkel and Franz-WalteSteinmer...... 12 background...... 12

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13...... economic context 14...... political context 19...... where whe stand today 20...... references

7 Secretariat welcoming letter

Dear Delegates,

It is with honor and pride that the Secretariat wishes to welcome you to Universidad de Los Andes’ MUN’s eighth edition, MONUA 2019. My name is Juan Camilo Romero, an Economics and History Major here at Universidad de Los Andes. It is with gratitude that I invite you to enjoy this committee in the best way possible and profit the most from its possibilities. Along with Santiago Paz, Economics and major from the same institution, we would like to make you feel the same passion we feel for international relations, economic and political situations and intellectual debates that surround not only our reality, but that have shaped the world as we know it.

MONUA 2019’s goal is to, with this edition’s academic structure and preparation, make of their committees the most educational and memorable experience for every delegate. From newbies to the most experienced, each delegate will have the possibility to motivate his or herself to be better for his own profit and to fight their fears. Each participant this year is not only called to profit and enjoy all the amenities provided by the conference, along with the opportunities to get to enlarge their own world but is also called to break the boundaries of their own capacities.

The academic team that has prepared all this experience, from dais members to us as the secretariat, is extremely proud of the result you will see soon enough. You will find new realities, challenges and an infinity of possibilities to mold the world at your will whilst being conscious of the other in order to set the path towards being a better person and a better member of society.

Delegates, by making part of a committee in MONUA 2019, you assert your character and your capacities. You also confirm having a commitment to yourselves and your surroundings. You confirm having a commitment of being leaders that, just as our alma mater’s motto states, go beyond the duty. We expect this dream to motivate you just as much it has motivated us from the beginning and from here on until memory permits it.

Face impossibles, face your mind and face the odds. Welcome.

Juan Camilo Romero Santiago Paz Secretary-General MONUA 2019 Undersecretary-General MONUA2019 8 Dear delegates,

Welcome to the Undersecretariat for Crisis Committees, which will be with no doubt, the most challenging of all. My name is Simón Fandiño Mondragón, seventh semester law student at Universidad de los Andes, alumni from Colegio Calasanz Cúcuta, and native from the same city.

This Undersecretariat has been distinguished for always being ahead when it comes to crisis committees in Colombia, mixing North American circuit crisis procedure with the structure of Co- lombian committees. Therefore, this Undersecretariat has become what it is because it has been standing on the shoulders of giants, who share my passion for this kind of committees.

This year, we introduce three extraordinary committees, each one different and equally and captivating in their own way. First, we have Angela Merkel’s Presidential Cabinet, led by Juan Diego Ávila it is an economic presidential committee, with political and social elements. We also present the JCC: The Trojan Epic Cycle, directed by Santiago Serrano and with the objective of devising the designs of the epic war between Trojans and Achaeans. Lastly, MONUA’s signature committee, the Ad-Hoc Committee of the Sec- retary General, always present in this model as far as I can recall, always mysterious, always intriguing, this time under the leader- ship of Mateo Zárate.

I hope that this excellent team, made up by people with a long trajectory in this kind of committees, will be able to portray their love for crisis on you, so your MONUA experience is unforgettable. Without further ado, enjoy this journey, because fantasy, betrayals, alliances and war are just around the corner.

usg for crisis committees

9 dais and crisis director welcoming letter

Dear Delegates,

Welcome to MONUA 2019 and to the Angela Merkel’s Presidential Cabinet. As the Dais of this committee we are very pleased to have you all here. I am Alan David Gómez, a sixth-semester economics student minoring in law and business administration at Universidad de Los Andes. I’m also part of a newspaper specialized in analyzing the current economic events in Colombia and the region. Thus, I’m passionate about understanding my surroundings in order to make our country better, since I consider change starts from within. Quite frankly I’m new to model UN experiences, but I do not lack determination to be the best chair I can in order to make sure you have the best experience at MONUA. is my favorite country worldwide and I’m eager to explore it in extreme depth, as I hope you do too.

I’m Andrea Jaramillo Caro, an eight-semester Social Communication student minoring in Journalism and Editorial at Pontificia Universidad Javeriana. I’m passionate about cultural, social, security and human rights topics; which is why you’ll almost always see me in committees with these topics. Germany is one of those countries that draws me in since, as a journalist, I find it fascinating due to its vast history and development, reason why I expect you to give your full best in the three days we will be gathered in order to make this one, one of the best experiences for everyone. I’ll be attentive to any doubt you may have and remember to prepare thoroughly since the success of the committee lies on both sides.

It is an honor for us to share with you this thrilling experience, which promises to reach the highest expectations. We expect you all to prepare in the best way and bring to the committee all of your best energy to make of this an amazing experience for all of us. We hope to see you soon.

Sincerely, Alan David Gómez and Andrea Jaramillo Caro

10 Dear members of the cabinet,

Welcome to the 8th version of MONUA. My name is Juan Diego Avila, I’m in 6th semester at Universidad de Los Andes, currently pursuing a double major in Economics and Government & Public Affairs, and for this version of MONUA I will be your crisis director. Back in school I participated in diverse versions of MUN yet I quit a few years ago. However, MUN finds a way to lure you back in, and that is why I am here. Crisis committees are, by far, the most pushing and stressful yet exciting committees there are because is in here where you prove how complete you are as a delegate. I invite you to feel the pressure and the overwhelm that crisis produces because those sensations are the ones that will take you where you have never imagined. I also invite you to reach me at any point during your preparation if you have any doubts or questions, I am glad to help you sort them out.

Prepare yourselves, because Germany needs you, each and every one of you must come with fresh ideas, secret tactics and the greatest charisma to bring the cabinet to new lengths.

Juan Diego Avila, Crisis Room Director.

11 Invitation from Angela Merkel and Franz-Walter Steinmer Today marks a month since the possession of this cabinet, time in which we have gone through a lot, but we have managed to overcome every obstacle that has come our way. Even though we have been able to manage some of these problems, the cabinet still has to overcome complex challenges. This sort of affairs are the reason why Europe has the eyes on us; and let us remember you, that the expectations of our people, the , are higher than ever. Currently, this fourth term has not received the expected support in the political Arena, and the of parties that helped build a new term for your , Mrs. Merkel, seems to be disgruntled. Moreover, the political tension has been intensified and the people are questioning the government’s capacity to fulfil its duty.

A new period starts today. Today, we have the possibility to shape German history and recov- er our legitimacy in front of our citizens and our neighboring countries. It won’t be an easy work; hence, it is of vital importance to have a thorough commitment in every one of our as- signments and, to always bear in mind that we are here to represent the best interests of the nation. Furthermore, it doesn’t matter the position that each one of us has in diverse topics such as immigration, economy, cultural rights, amongst others, even if it is in the opposition; we need to fight, not against each other, but with each other, side by side, for our people. That being said, if you have received this letter, you have the honor to be invited to attend the next meeting of this cabinet in the Chancellery Headquarters.

Angela Merkel, Franz-Walter Steinmer,

background

Angela Dorothea Merkel has been acting as Chancellor of Germany since 2005, she also has served as the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) since 2000; She has chosen four cabinets since her first election, approximately one for every four years.

The CDU surfaced in Germany in the WWII aftermath. The founder, was an openly opponent of the Nazi regime and actively fought the Third Reich; thus, the party was funded with anti-fascist ideals. (dw.com, 2017). With Adenauer and the CDU, Germany fought to leave the Nazi reputation behind and established the where pros- perity, social justice and sustainability were pursued. Social market economy (SME) sought a consolidation between and by taking the best of both worlds. The system implanted by Adenauer was one that acknowledged individual rights in both senses. That meant rights such as freedom of speech were equally defended as right such as healthcare. (Robert Hör, 2017). In this way, the CDU was, and is seen, as a conciliating party not free of questioning in matters such as their views on safety, fiscal stability, among others. Therefore, it will be task of the cabinet to maintain faithful to the CDU’s ideals in order to maintain Ger- many as a powerhouse, while getting through with their personal agenda within the cabinet.

12 of City Palace was delayed due to economic context the elevated cost it meant for the country.

Back in 2009 the EU faced its first major crisis as a block. The crisis was based on the fact that the public expenditure of several coun- tries such as Greece, grew to pair up with other economies in the Eurozone as Germa- ny and Belgium. This led to a crisis as Greece wasn’t able to pay up their debt, which in 2008 hit an all-time high of 180% times the country’s GDP (tradingeconomics, 2018). This situation forced all of the Eurozone countries to make either cuts on expendi- ture, ampliation of taxes, or a combination of Graph #1. GDP growth in Germany (1997- both. Germany opted for a combination that 2017). (https://databank.worldbank.org, sought a cutback on expenditure in the short 2019). term, accompanied by a tax reform, which would last longer (tradingeconomics, 2018).

The situation presented aboves struck even harder given the fact that the EU legally re- quired countries to maintain their public debt under a threshold percentage in terms of their total GDP, making deficit expend- iture and anti-cyclical fiscal policy meas- ures practically impossible to implement at times of recession. In this sense, several countries within the EU saw only one path Graph #2. GDP per capita in Germany (1997- to surpass the crisis: leave the EU. As you 2017). (https://databank.worldbank.org, might imagine, public threats about leaving 2019). the block generated panic amongst inves- tors, policy makers and the common citizens, The austerity plan was seen as successful, as which affected both, the Greece’s (as well it was able to draw back the effects the cri- as other countries) and the EU’s credibility. sis had on Germany in 2009 as it is seen in Graph #1. For 2009 Germany had negative Therefore, the German government had to growth, its largest since the unification, by al- undergo changes in fiscal policies, since it most -6%, yet for 2010 the growth was even needed to prevent possible damage from larger that the one in 2008, the year prior to the growing crisis. In fact, in 2010 an aus- the crisis. However, Graph #2 is clear to show terity plan was announced, in order to be that the recovery per capita was steady, yet able to save 80 billion by 2014 (BBC, impressive as even with an economic crisis, 2010); this, pointing to construct solid bas- in the last twenty years the country has in- es for the financial future of the country. creased its GDP per capita by almost $10,000 This austerity plan was the largest pack- constant USD. age of cuts since WWII. In order to accom- plish the goal, it was necessary to cut on In this context, the cutbacks proposed by the social spending, business subsidies and the cabinet were an example to the other Eu- army; for instance, even the reconstruction ropean nations, who adapted the plan and

13 applied it, seeking an effective response to the dismissal . crisis that was threatening the European currency (Spiegel, 2013). The risk, analysts suggest, 3. Introduce “mini-jobs” with lower taxes. developed due to the decreasing credibility countries with larger crises had. The latter 4. Combine apprenticeships with vocational statement is naturally true as when countries education targeted toward youth unemployment. lose credibility in the international arena, they are forced to sell bonds at higher returns, 5. Create special funds and tax benefits to which again, makes the country’s credibility fall, privatize state-owned businesses. eventually affecting the value of the money. Now, it is important to state that never during the crisis 6. Establish special economic zones like the ECB (European Central Bank) was forced those in China. into printing more money. This means that the devaluation would occur, not by inflation, but by 7. Invest in renewable energy. the country’s loss of credibility. (GRETA, 2012). Therefore, the second cabinet dealt with Furthermore, Angela Merkel, with the support problems that would resonate after their period of the different ministries and the government of action, but as a consequence of their wise of France, took an initiative to assist the nations decisions and interventions, the only viable which were having difficulties dealing with their candidate for the Chancellery was Merkel debts. For instance, the German Chancellor herself; consequently, she was chosen for a third pronounced the thought that the European period. nations should have stronger bonds, taking integration to the point of having a regional Angela Merkel’s third cabinet was sworn the 17th supervisor for economy and politics (Euractiv, of December 2013, this cabinet was supported 2012). However, many people saw this proposal by a coalition between the Christian Democratic as a counterproductive measurement for the Union (CDU), the Christian Social Union of crisis and highly damaging for Europe in the (CSU), and the Social Democrats (SPD). The six future (Washington Post, 2013). Adding to most prominent ministries of the the prior statement, it was also marked as an were equally divided between the CDU and unpopular opinion as the proposal called for a the SPD. The CDU controlled the ministries for: larger integration in, not only economics wise, finance, internal affairs and defense, while the but also politically; meaning an integration SPD controlled the foreign affairs, economics towards a single political trajectory. Now, given and energy, and the justice and consumer the wide found in Europe, the protection ministries (dw.com, 2013). proposal was meant to fail. (Euractiv, 2012).

As the crisis grew bigger in the rest of Europe, political context the German government took once again the leadership and drew a plan with seven clear Germany within the EU: goals, in order to prevent future crises. Bearing this in mind the Government pinned reasons The European and Steel community, founded in why the prior crisis had occurred and what other 1952, is considered to be the predecessor of the factors might contribute to the next one. The EU. Western Germany was a founding member, seven goals were (The Ballance, 2018): as the country was looking for a gradual and friendly integration to the rest of Western 1. Launch quick-start programs to help Europe. Interestingly, the UK was not a founding business startups. member, which was chance for Germany to be on the spotlight of the community. This has 2. Relax protections against wrongful proven to be the case, as it has been called the 14 engine of Europe countless times since the populist party, (AFD), creation of the Community, and subsequently, gained popularity in territories like Bavaria. In this the EU. region, the AFD’s support grew by 2.4%, while the CDU/CSU coalition, lost 1.9% (Deutsche However, as Germany has grown powerful and Welle, 2017). As the crisis got worsened, many politically relevant, the rest of Europe feels European countries began reinforcing their threatened. Eurosceptics, as they call themselves, border controls, in areas where a high flow of are proclaiming the dangers of allowing the fast immigrants was shown. The later is a counter- integration the continent is going through. For productive measure, considering that within the example, the effects of political and economic Schengen accords, border controls between the integration are clear: EU countries shall follow European countries is forbidden. (Washington the German policies. Even when theoretically Post, 2018). Germany’s process to overcome the crisis and subsequent growth is undoubtable, the fact that Regarding the crisis of immigrants, Ms. Merkel the country is imposing, in the form of suggestions, has a very clear concept on this, having her this policies, is threatening, Eurosceptics say. open-doors policy (Politico, 2016). Regarding This has led to the conformation of oppositions the aging population and the decrease in the in the European Parliament against Germany’s workforce, Merkel’s approach is directed into proposals. having immigrants have the chance of filling the abundant empty positions (Washington Post, Germany & the rest of the world: 2018).

In the international arena Germany is seen as one of the major potencies in the , being the most successful economy within the Eurozone by far; in political, economic and other matters, the country has a very important place due to the fact that it has major presence in diverse organisms that make part of the EU. This means the world turns to Germany looking for efficient public and international policies in order to tackle current events in the most integral way possible.

Example of Germany’s leadership is the refugees and immigrants matters. In 2010, most of the North African and Mid-Western countries fought for democracy, overturning their so- called leaders, in reality, dictators. This brought war to the region, therefore many of its citizens Fig 1. (fingfx.thomsonreuters.com, 2015). started a process of immigration to Europe (Research Gate, 2011). As war increased, so The graphic above shows the projection of the did the immigration rate. The immigration rate plan proposed by the Chancellor, in order to hit historically high records, bringing Europe to generate a new generation of workforce making the brink of a new crisis: an immigration crisis. sure of having a big range of inclusion. According to Eurostat, as many as 62,000 people per month applied for asylum in Germany Let’s take into account that the measures taken in 2016. But real problem arose when anti- by the government regarding the acceptance immigrant, far-right ideals, grew and gain power of -mostly Muslim- immigrants have driven through the crisis. For instance, the far-right certain people to emerge as a party -Alternative 15 Für Deutschland- that´s main purpose is anti- In the previous image, we can see, how migrant and anti-Islam (Maydan, 2018). the European countries see the aid on the immigrant’s crisis should be taken, having Nowadays, a draft containing the new most of these countries agreeing on having migrant law, is driven by various political people be taken into the country. parties associated with Merkel’s Christian Democrats, which seeks the possibilities to Thus, it is clear Germany is an exemplary grant migrants a five-year residency, two year country in the zone, as it no only seeks longer than actual law allows it, after they for its people, but for the least fortunate have accomplished the following (Martin, refugees that are displaced from their homes. 2018): However, it is still a matter of discussion the way in which the newcomers will be - Proven basic skills. introduced into a heavily westernized society - Having a job that covers most of their as cultural barriers rise. expenses. - Taking part of the “orientation courses” Germany’s political parties and coalition: on German culture and society. In Germany there are currently six political However, not every European country parties present in the Bundestag, the Christian has followed Germany’s steps. Diverse Democratic Union and Christian Socialist international representatives see the actions Union (CDU/CSU), Social Democratic Party taken by the Chancellor as a threat for of Germany (SDP), The Green Party, Free civilians in matters of wealth and welfare. Democratic Party (FDP), Party, and An example of the prior is the fact that Italy’s Alternative for Germany (AfG). After the 2017 new, right-winged government, led by Salvini, elections, the Bundestag was divided in the has unveiled new ant-migrants proportions following way: resulting in a quicker deportation generating an important decrease in the number compared to recent years (, 2018). French president, , sided with the Italian government’s proposals. Mr. Macron recently stated that “the continent cannot welcome everyone” (France24, 2018), this being proven by the hard-line law passed by the government this summer (France24, 2018).

Figure 3: (bundestag.de, 2018).

Each of the parties has a different history and goals for Germany which must be taken into account. The following is a brief discussion on the major parties of Germany:

Fig 2. (In infographic.statista.com., 2018). CDU/CSU: they stand for the same values and policies although the CSU is a Bavarian 16 party. Since its creation in 1950 it has been FDP: was founded in December 1948, uniting Christian voters all over Germany although it has never led the government, and has been the leading party for 47 years. it has been present in it for 41 years. It Currently its chairmen for the CDU are: Angela characterizes for having a liberal agenda and Merkel and for the CSU: . promotes free markets. After a blow in the being Merkel’s party and the dominant one, 2013 elections, it came back in 2017 passing their voters have entrusted them to keep the representation threshold. Its current chair Germany’s economy safe, although Merkel’s is (Davis, 2017). more liberal stance on migration has earned her the discomfort of her peers among her CDU context: (Davis, 2017). The Christian democratic union it’s a German SDP: It is Germany’s oldest party founded in center-right political party, it was founded in 1875, it has been classified as the people’s 1945 right after the Second World War due party since it stands for the working classes to the political crisis caused by the former and trade unions interests. From the Nazi government; Germany had to search for beginning it was seen as a left laborist party a new political order after the failure caused but around the 1970’s it changed its traditional by the National Socialist German Workers views for a coalition with conservative parties Party, the far-right political party that wanted but has kept its ideology rather to the left to bring Germany back to its old glory. The wing. Currently it’s leaded by first members were -the (Britannica, 2018). principal founder- along with members of different politicians who The Left Party: founded in 2007 it has roots came from the Centre party, the German from the dissolved Socialist Unity Party (SED), Democratic party and many others. The first its platform of voters is based mainly in East concern of the party was to stop any Nazi-like Germany it represents a disenchantment movement or in Germany. with traditional parties and has never had a government coalition. Its head at the moment This political party was pioneered by two are: and main eras, the and the Merkel, (Britannica, 2018). which were significant due to the political decisions they made and the context in The Green Party: it was born around the 80’s which they were involved. Helmut Kohl was and was deemed the party of the hippies, elected Leader of the Christian Democratic it represents the counter-culture and has Union in 1973 and maintained that role been the most successful one in Germany. until his defeat in 1998 (Chase, 2017). He It became prominent in the 2000’s after a became Chancellor of in coalition with the SDP. It is co-chaired by 1983 and after the collapse of the Eastern and German Government, where he called for (Davis, 2017). a reunification supported by USA, UK and France governments. Furthermore, the AfG: a right-wing party created only five Christian Democratic party’s ideology wholly months before the 2013 elections as a based on the defense of the social market Eurosceptic party against Germany’s decision economy which needed to be developed of supporting failing economies in the within a state of federal (Chase, 2017). European Union, today it is an anti-migrant, anti-Islam, populist party. It is currently led Although it has defended through the years by: Jörg Meuthen and different ideologies the CDU has centered (Knight, 2018). its theoretical approaches, in the importance of Christianity and the responsibility of the 17 citizens. In the most recent years it has after the division of ministries between the focused the political plan towards topics such parties (FT, 2018). This change of heart from as economic, educative and fiscal politics, the SDP and desperation of the CDU came security and international laws (Chase, 2017). from the pressure of having alt-right party On the other hand, the party defends the AfG gaining popularity when theirs is low and reduction of bureaucracy and has raised an their strong opposition to their ideology. The important debate concerning patriotisms, renewed ‘Grand Coalition’ cost Merkel quite due to the fact the party calls itself a center- a lot as she lost key ministries for her party, right popular party. Regarding international such as: foreign affairs and finance ministry. affairs it seeks to reinforce the European Integration and the transatlantic relations This grand coalition from the CDU with with of America. old partners came right after this was the type of government voted against in the 2018 party’s coalition: September 2017 elections, even though this alliance meant everything for the European In February 2018 the CDU/CSU agreed Union. Even though the coalition has already on a coalition with the SDP after months of happened, there’s no guarantee that it’ll last negotiation and a break of the in November the full term. With Merkel, Germany is at its 2017. After a decline of 8% on the 2017 best economic moment and the challenge elections from the CDU, and a similar situation posed by the uncertain coalition showed the for the SDP, they both sought for an alliance stability that is much needed in the country. but after the SDP declared its unwillingness With this new agreement the SDP has showed to, yet again, be a junior party to the CDU; that it wants more than before, having been both started looking to other parties (Martin, given some of the most important ministries 2018). All the CDU, SDP and CSU have had and also more influence in policy than past their worst election rate since the 1940’s. deals (Martin, 2018). Overnight the talks for a coalition between the two were basically over, leaving Merkel at Fractions in the current cabinet: a turning and challenging point seeing as her party wasn’t as strong as before (FT, 2018). This brought dispute among the cabinet, as Neither the Greens nor the FDP wanted an the CSU wanted a more conservative and alliance with the CDU because of a lack of aggressive approach towards the immigrants, confidence in the other, both of them pulled while the CDU thought otherwise. As a result, out of the talks for negotiation. Angela Merkel the Minister of Interior, and leader of the CSU, met with Germany’s president in order to tell Horst Seehofer, threatened to abandon the him that negotiations had failed, according to cabinet if Merkel’s immigration policy kept its law he could call for new elections if there was actual course (Martínez, 2018). Consequently, no way to have a functioning government. Merkel’s cabinet exposed its discrepancies to the rest of the world. Therefore, in order It also didn’t help that there was a fragile to establish order in the acting cabinet the at the moment that reported lows on chancellor was forced to name , the markets. With this in mind, many were from the AFD, as minister of health, as the expecting new elections earlier on 2018, but far-right wins more and more supporters by nevertheless they were surprised with the new every moment. coalition forming on February. After a long negotiation the new alliance was announced

18 meets to navigate the challenges that the wherebdfbdf we stand current context, of not only Germany and Europe, but the world, poses. All this in order today to achieve the objectives of the nation in the best way possible, lifting the image of the new government to the people while also It’s April 14th, 2018, exactly one month after acting towards solving current situations. the possession of Angela Merkel’s fourth cabinet, the expectations are high since there are many challenges to attend as well as convincing the German population that this fourth term will be innovative. A grand coalition between the parties Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Christian Social Union (CSU) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has been approved and a crisis averted, there have been strong opinions among German citizens about the new ministers, as some of them do not seem fit for the charge (theguardian.com, 2018).. This added to the looming shadow of the far-right parties: Alternative for Germany (AFD), which is growing at alarming rates, and gained several chairs in the Bundestag during the election, and the National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD). In security matters, the people have begun to notice terrorism as an unstoppable threat and they are now blaming on the government. Moreover, the immigration has been intensified and, as it grows, the xenophobically attitudes of the people grow with it.

The scenery abroad does not seem promising either: Europe is facing problems caused by Brexit and by the financial hole that the Greek crisis has left. The United States has begun a trade war with China, which at this point, could go either way for Germany. Furthermore tensions rise in the Middle East as Israel pressures Germany to stop funding anti-Israeli groups, as well as the influx of refugees from Syria seems eternal.

With the international panorama and the internal situation as shown, the cabinet

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