Chapter 3 Present Conditions of the Study Area

CHAPTER 3 PRESENT CONDITIONS OF THE STUDY AREA 3.1 The Study Area 3.1.1 The Study Area As stated in the S/W of the Study, the Study Area consists of 11 districts in Karakalpakstan excluding 3 southeastern districts and municipalities. They are Beruni, Nukus, Kegeily, Chimbay, Karauzyak, Takhtakupyr, Khodjeyli, Shumanay, Kanlikul, Kungrad and Muynak. The total area is estimated in 247,000 km2 which covers more than 90% of Karakalpakstan. All of the districts of the Study Area are agricultural regions which are fully or partially irrigated. The north and western areas of the Study Area are covered by desert or salty swamp with few residents as grazing zone. A total of 6,539,000 of fermer farms and 115,500 of dehkan farms were operating the agriculture or livestock in the an area of 430 million ha and 26,800 ha respectively in the Study Area in 2006. 3.1.2 Natural Conditions (1) Meteorology The climate condition of the Study Area is characterized by small annual precipitation of 110 to 130 mm, dry and hot summer season and quite cold winter season. Precipitation in the Study Area shows two peaks in a year: in March to May and another in November to December in general. The wettest months are March and April, whilst the driest are July to September. Precipitation in March and April occupies 31% of the year in average. The average temperature of the Study Area is 11.4 ºC and it varies from 10.4 to 12.3 ºC by location. The hottest months are June to August, while the peak is observed in July. Contrarily, the coldest temperature is observed in January and February. Even though, the monthly average temperature varies between -5.1 to 27.9 ºC. The significant difference between the absolute maximum and minimum are observed due to the continental climate characteristics. It becomes less than -20 ºC in winter and over 50 ºC in the summer. The wind direction is predominantly from the west. Rain is normally associated with depressions that originate in the eastern Mediterranean and then move in a northeast direction over the Caspian Sea where they are regenerated and strengthened. The cause of the wet spring weather is due to the seasonal increase in convective activity and the weakening of the Siberian anticyclone. Western cyclones change their direction in the summer over the Aral Sea from west-east to north-south direction. Strong ground winds are relatively frequent in the northwestern part of the Amudarya delta, with storms for about 50 days per annum. Wind velocity reaches a maximum of 20 to 25 m/s. Table 3.1.1 Long-term Monthly Average Precipitation in the Study Area (1961-1990) Unit: mm Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Nukus 10.1 8.7 16.4 19.3 12.2 3.9 3.5 2.1 3.0 8.7 9.4 13.6 111 Kungrad 8.7 8.0 18.8 18.1 13.7 11.0 4.7 2.0 2.1 8.1 11.1 10.5 117 Chimbay 12.7 10.1 18.9 21.5 13.7 4.2 3.9 2.6 3.2 9.6 10.4 13.3 124 Takhiatash 9.4 9.4 15.8 20.3 12.4 4.5 4.6 2.5 3.6 8.5 10.1 13.2 114 Takhtakupir 11.8 8.6 17.9 13.4 20.0 3.9 1.4 2.7 3.6 5.2 15.4 15.8 120 Muynak 11.0 7.9 18.1 20.0 7.7 8.0 4.8 4.5 3.9 12.4 18.0 12.2 129 Average 10.6 8.8 17.7 18.8 13.3 5.9 3.8 2.7 3.2 8.8 12.4 13.1 119 Source: Karakalpakstan Hydro-meteorological Department 3 - 1 Table 3.1.2 Long-term Monthly Average Temperature (oC) in the Study Area (1961-1990) Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Nukus -4.9 -3.5 4.1 13.9 21.3 26.4 28.7 25.9 19.4 10.7 4.1 -1.7 12.0 Kungrad -5.5 -4.4 2.7 12.6 20.3 25.2 27.4 24.8 18.4 10.0 3.5 -2.1 11.1 Chimbay -5.5 -4.4 2.9 13.0 20.4 25.3 27.4 24.6 18.2 9.8 3.3 -2.3 11.1 Takhiatash -4.4 -3.0 4.4 14.1 21.4 26.5 28.6 25.9 19.6 11.2 4.6 -1.2 12.3 Takhtakupir -4.8 -3.6 2.9 13.5 20.2 26.5 27.9 25.4 18.4 10.8 2.7 -2.0 11.5 Muynak -5.6 -5.9 0.6 10.4 18.7 24.4 27.3 25.0 18.8 10.1 3.4 -2.1 10.4 Average -5.1 -4.1 2.9 12.9 20.4 25.7 27.9 25.3 18.8 10.4 3.6 -1.9 11.4 Source: Karakalpakstan Hydro-meteorological Department (2) Hydrology The only water resource of the Study Area is the Amudarya River. The water that flows into the Study Area is regulated by the Tuyamuyun Dam, with active capacity of 4,500 million m3, located at the boundary of Karakalpakstan and Khorezm region. Some of the irrigated area in Karakalpakstan receive water from the Right Bank Canal and take water from the Tuyamuyun Dam, but the target districts of the Study Area take water from the river after the Dam. The discharge of water flowing down the Amudarya River varies significantly from year to year, depending to climatic and other conditions. The Amudarya River carries almost twice as much water in a year of high flood compared to a year of drought, which has enormous consequences for the Study Area, the lowest downstream territory. The Amudarya is a glacier/snowmelt fed type river and its water resources reaches 68,63km3 on average. The main flow volume (85%) is formed by the Vakhsh and Pyandj tributaries. The share of the Surkhandarya, Kafirnigan, and Kunduz rivers is only 15%. The average monthly discharges at the hydro-posts in the lower reaches of the Amudarya River from 1998 to 2000 are shown in the figure below. As shown in the figure, its uneven distribution through the year is well pronounced with 77-80% and 10-13% of total runoff in April - September and December – February, respectively. In both 2000 and 2001 the Study Area suffered two consecutive droughts, which devastated annual harvests, led to severe water shortages and resulted in a large abandoned irrigated land, especially in the northern part of the Amudarya delta. 4,500 Unit: m3/s 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Nov-98 Nov-99 Nov-00 May-98 May-99 May-00 Tuyamuyun Kipchak Samanbay Kizildjar Location of Hydro-posts in Amudarya River Source: The Report on Assessment of Drought Impact on Agricultural Sector and Drinking Water in the Republic of Karakalpakstan and Khorezm Viloyat, World Bank, 2001 Fig. 3.1.1 Average Monthly Discharge of Lower Amudarya (1998 – 2000) 3 - 2 The flow condition of the lower reach of the Amudarya in the recent years is presented below by the data of 2008 to 2010 at the Tuyamuyun hydropost, which can be recognized to represent the flow condition of the lower Amudarya. In 2008, the area had a severe drought through the year and it continued until the first half of 2009. After June of 2009, the flow of the Amudarya was significantly increased and the one of 2010 is expected to compare with the record of 1998 and 2005, which were recognized as the highest after 1990’s. Flow of Amudarya Rive at Tuyamuyum Hydropost 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 1998 s 2005 3/ 2500 m 2008 2000 2009 2010 1500 1000 500 0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Source: SANIIRI Karakalpakstan Fig. 3.1.2 Flow Condition of Amudarya River at Tuyamuyun Hydropost in the Recent Years 3.1.3 Socio-economic Conditions (1) Regional Economic Indicators The total population in Karakalpakstan is 1.58 million persons. Among the 11 districts in the Study Area, Beruni and Khodjeyli hold 9% of Karakalpakstan’s population. In contrast, Muynak has only 2% of the total population, followed by Shumanay, Kanlikul, Nukus, Karauzyak, and Takhtakupyr districts that have 3%. In general, the majority of Karakalpak ethnic lives in the center of the republic, including Chimbay, Kegeily, Kanlikul, and Nukus districts, whereas Kazakh lives in north and west districts. Most Uzbek lives in the Southeast districts such as Beruni. Table 3.1.3 Socio-economic Profile of the Study Area Itam Kungrad Muynak Shumanay Kanlikul Kegeily Chimbay Khodjeyli Nukus Karauzyak Takhtakupyr Beruni R.K. Total Population/a 113,000 28,600 41,200 41,200 76,500 97,200 145,800 44,200 44,300 42,300 150,200 1,582,700 7% 2% 3% 3% 5% 6% 9% 3% 3% 3% 9% Majority of Ethnicity (%)/a 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Karakalpak 22 46 40 70 83 80 30 58 20 47 - Kazakh 405336- - -30327752- Uzbek - - -15- -30- - -66 Others 3812415172010103 134 Distance from Nukus C.

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