PS/Nash From: Christine Quinn RSC/WM Date: 14/11/2016 Copy: PS/SoS PS/Nick Gibb PS/Perm Sec PS/SpAds Sir David Carter Mela Watts Kate Josephs Anna Barker Nigel Minns Mary Pooley Mark Foley Press Office (additional copy list at end) NOTE ON BAVERSTOCK ACADEMY - VIABILITY Issue 1. This note summarises the issues to be considered in deciding whether Baverstock Academy should be re-brokered or whether it should be closed. Key factors to be considered are costs, viability around pupil numbers and impact the on other local secondary provision. Summary 2. Baverstock Academy in South Birmingham went into Special Measures in November 2014. An IAB was quickly put in place to stabilise the Trust while a sponsor was found. Attempts to find a sponsor were without success and in June 2016, the Trust resolved to close the academy. This prompted significant local parental opposition and also opposition from the local MP Steve McCabe and local Councillors, Barry Henley, Mike Leddy, and Eva Phillips. 3. In July 2016, Steve McCabe met with Nick Gibb to raise his concerns over the closure. At that meeting the Minister confirmed that a more detailed cost benefit analysis of the options would be undertaken and considered before any decision was taken by the Secretary of State. 4. Further attempts were made to find a sponsor for the academy but following due diligence, only one sponsor has been willing to consider taking on the Page 1 of 41 Baverstock Academy as part of a rebrokerage package with a number of the schools. Neither nor felt that the Baverstock proposition was a viable one and have confirmed they are unwilling to take the school. 5. Options and recommendation 6. The key options for Baverstock Academy are: a. rebroker the academy b. close the academy Timing 7. Urgent. The uncertainty around the future is causing unrest in the community. This is encouraging staff to leave and a further fall in pupil numbers, which is impacting on the fragility of the academy and having a ripple effect on the future of local secondary provision. Pupils and parents are currently making school choices for September 2017. Background Page 2 of 41 12. Baverstock Academy went into Special Measures in November 2014. The Head was suspended in November 2015 and disciplinary action started in relation to suspected financial irregularities. The SM judgment also reflected poor results, poor recruitment, poor discipline and attendance and poor quality buildings. 13. Under DfE advice, the Trust established an Interim Academy Board (IAB) while a longer term solution was found. The IAB appointed interim leadership, which has kept the school going, but with no long term improvement strategy. Class size numbers have fallen from around 100 in each year to only about 50 in Y7 this September. 14. DfE held initial discussions with a number of potential sponsors but none were interested due to issues with viability. By June 2016, the Trust had concluded that the only way forward was closure. They proposed this to the RSC. When this became known to the local community there was significant opposition. This included local parents, local Councillors, Birmingham City Council at a political level and the local MP Steve McCabe. He met Nick Gibb in July 2016, who confirmed that a full cost benefit analysis would need to be considered before any decision was taken and that closure would be avoided if at all possible. Options summary and cost analysis Page 3 of 41 Page 4 of 41 Pupil viability 30. Numbers on roll at Baverstock against capacity of 1330 (PAN 240) have been declining historically and more significantly this year due to the uncertainty. Total numbers on roll 2013 2014 2015 January October Page 5 of 41 2016 2016 current Census 905 753 665 662 417 Number of pupils on roll in 2016, broken down by Year Group Year Group Pupil Numbers Year 7 51 Year 8 84 Year 9 87 Year 10 71 Year 11 116 Year 13 8 Surplus places in the locality – 3-mile radius 33. We have also considered the total number of surplus places within a 3 -mile radius of Baverstock. Based on the 2016 summer census, rolling the pupils numbers forward (i.e. not taking into account new housing or inward migration), the numbers on roll in secondary schools in the area (this includes schools in Solihull and Worcestershire) will drop every year for the next 5 years before beginning to pick up. Based on this analysis, by 2023, they will still be 1,800 pupils fewer than now. Total pupils (Year 7 - 11) 2016 14,771 2017 14,229 2018 13,683 2019 13,303 2020 12,727 2021 12,322 2022 12,640 2023 12,967 34. This does not take into account new housing or net migration (see other variables/risks section below). Basic needs assessment for Baverstock’s local planning area, Selly Oak (based on Page 6 of 41 2015 SCAP data) 35. Baverstock Academy is located in the Selly Oak secondary planning area which consists of eight secondary schools, including Baverstock. In 2015/16 the Selly Oak planning area had an overall surplus of secondary places of around 17% however the LA is forecasting that this will decrease to around 11% by 2019/20. 36. The table below lists the schools that are located in the Selly Oak planning area, their capacity, number on roll as at May 2015, and the number and percentage of surplus places. % Surplus surplus School NOR Capacity places places Bournville School and Sixth 952 1403 451 32 Form Centre Kings Heath Boys Mathematics 523 600 77 13 and Computing College Dame Elizabeth Cadbury 624 622 0 0 Technology College Selly Park Technology College 682 700 18 3 for Girls Swanshurst School 1771 1781 10 1 The Baverstock Academy 665 1330 665 50 Kings Norton Girls' School 915 935 20 2 King's Norton Boys' School 697 707 10 1 37. Baverstock had 50% surplus places last May and Bournville School, which is 4.5 miles away from Baverstock had 32% surplus. The LA is forecasting that the overall pupil numbers in the planning area will increase by 1,456 (24%) between 2015/16 and 2021/22; the year 7 increase will be 261 pupils (20%) during the same period. 38. Although there is an increase in pupil numbers over the next four years, there will still be a significant surplus supply of secondary places within the Baverstock locality by 2020. The table in Annex A (page 15) summarises the surplus places in all schools within a seven mile radius of Baverstock (data source: January 2016 school census). It suggests there are surplus places in good and outstanding schools in the following year groups; 82 in Year 7, 105 in Year 8, 168 in Year 9, 150 in Year 10, and 232 in Year 11. Page 7 of 41 Page 8 of 41 Page 9 of 41 i Page 10 of 41 Clearance Sir David Carter; Kate Josephs; Mark Foley; Mike Pettifer ANNEX A: PLACE PLANNING DATA FOR BAVERSTOCK Baverstock admissions information For information: current number on roll in year 7 = 51. 2017/18 applications: Grand LA Estimate of actual FIRST SECOND THIRD FOURTH FIFTH SIXTH Total September numbers Baverstock 22 15 14 27 23 28 129 50-60 Historic admissions data: ROUND_CODE FIRST SECOND THIRD FOURTH FIFTH SIXTH Total on time apps SY07Sep2015 54 43 32 20 18 19 186 SY07Sep2016 59 30 27 30 15 14 175 LATE LATE 2 LATE LATE 4 LATE LATE LEA Late Apps 1 3 5 6 placed SY07Sep2015 27 8 6 4 1 1 90 SY07Sep2016 14 4 2 3 0 3 177 Page 12 of 41 Page 13 of 41 Page 14 of 41 Page 15 of 41 Page 17 of 41 Page 18 of 41 Page 19 of 41 OFFICIAL SENSITIVE Page 20 of 41 OFFICIAL SENSITIVE Page 21 of 41 OFFICIAL SENSITIVE Page 22 of 41 Inspection report: The Baverstock Academy, 4–5 October 2016 Draft and confidential - Not for disclosure or publication ANNEX F: Draft Ofsted report on Baverstock Academy following 4-5 October inspections School report The information contained within this draft report should not be shared or published under any circumstances. Ofsted will consider the sharing of information in any manner a serious breach of confidentiality and will take appropriate action if necessary The Baverstock Academy 501 Bells Lane, Druids Heath, Birmingham, West Midlands, B14 5TL Inspection dates 4–5 October 2016 Overall effectiveness Inadequate Effectiveness of leadership and management Inadequate Quality of teaching, learning and assessment Inadequate Personal development, behaviour and welfare Inadequate Outcomes for pupils Inadequate 16 to 19 study programmes Inadequate Overall effectiveness at previous inspection Inadequate Page 23 of 41 Inspection report: The Baverstock Academy, 4–5 October 2016 Draft and confidential - Not for disclosure or publication Summary of key findings for parents and pupils This is an inadequate school Pupils conduct themselves well around school. The school is not financially sustainable. The Disadvantaged pupils, including the most able lack of a sponsor and a significant fall in the disadvantaged, and pupils who have special number of pupils on roll means the school has educational needs and/or disabilities are doing no capacity to continue in its current state. particularly badly. Under its financial restraints all additional funds, including the pupil premium, are being spent to The quality of teaching and learning is poor. offset the academy’s mounting debts. Many teachers have left. Increasingly gaps are filled by cover staff. Teachers offer little or no Changes to leadership and governance have challenge or support to the most-able pupils, failed to stem the rapid deterioration in the including those who are disadvantaged, pupils quality of education provided.