Poll: A Snapshot of Pre-Electoral

Main findings

22 March 2012 CONTENT

1. Methodology and quality control of the survey

2. Interest and awareness in politics

3. Electoral participation and party preferences

4. Presidential elections

5. Political attitudes

2 1. Methodology and quality control of the survey

3 Methodology

• A multi-stage, random (probability) sampling design was used. In the first stage, primary sampling units (PSU) were selected from each of the administrative regional units. This was agreed as best methodology between IPSC and TNS opinion.

• 1,602 interviews conducted face to face between 29th February – 5th March 2012.

• Interviews were conducted in all 10 marzes of Armenia and in all communities. The sample was distributed proportionally to reflect the population distribution in Armenia, with 35.0% of interviews conducted in Yerevan and 65.0 % in the marzes. • Interviewers selected households using the random walking method to ensure that there is no selection bias. To ensure a random selection, the person interviewed in each household was the adult whose birthday was closest to the day of the interview. • If a respondent was not immediately available, 1 to 2 call-back visits were done to conduct the interview later. If a call-back visit was not successful or if a respondent could not take part for other reasons, the interviewer approached the next randomly selected household according to the random walking method. • The sampling procedure was monitored by using a detailed contact sheet for each interviewer. The data base was analysed by TNS opinion in order to ensure that interviewers followed the instructions. • The data was weighted according to region, age, gender and is accurate to a maximum margin of error of ±2.4% for the overall sample.

4 Quality control

• The quality control methodology, fieldwork monitoring and survey implementation were planned in detail and agreed between IPSC and TNS opinion.

• 18% of the interviews conducted were accompanied by IPSC quality control coordinators to ensure high quality and compliance with the standards agreed. All questionnaires were monitored by IPSC specialists to check the individual quality and logical consistency of the data. 5% of the questionnaires were checked by return visits. 25% of the entered paper questionnaires were double-checked in the database to ensure accuracy of processed data. Following all these checks, 24 interviews were rejected (1.5%).

• Route records were checked by IPSC and TNS opinion independently to ensure that interviews had been selected randomly.

• 29% of the sample was called back by IPSC to confirm demographic details and that the interview took place in the conditions recorded. Additionally, 10% of interviews were randomly selected by TNS opinion and called back to confirm key demographic information and two opinion questions. This consistency check-back resulted in the required compliance level with the originally collected data.

• Extensive checks were conducted on the data file by TNS opinion to see if there were any logically inconsistent or inaccurate interviews, data points or invalid information. This was assessed positively and no case exclusions were made.

5 2. Interest and awareness in politics

6 55% of the population is “mostly” or “very” interested in politics. Interest grows with age and education.

Q1. Could you please tell us how interested you are in socio-political issues in Armenia?

Level of interest in politics Level of interest in politics Level of interest in politics by age (“mostly” or “very” by education (“mostly” or interested) “very” interested) 18% 67% 27% 66% 68%

55% 55% 55% 50% 52% 44%

37% 18%

Not at all interested Mostly not interested Mostly interested Very interested 18-29 30-49 50-69 70 < Total Sec. College Higher Total

7 TV remains the main source of political information, while using the internet as an information source has increased substantially in the last 1.5 years.

Q2. From which of the following sources do you get information about socio-political events in Armenia?

Sources of political information, Oct 2010 and Mar 2012

95% TV 92%

15% Internet 31% Oct 2010 22% Printed media Mar 2012 19%

14% Radio 17%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

8 The future is online: to get information, younger people are gradually moving away from TV and towards the internet.

Q2. From which of the following sources do you get information about socio-political events in Armenia?

Sources of political information, by age

98% 100% 96% 95%

83% 80%

60% 48%

40% 30%

21% 20%

4% 0% TV Internet 18-29 30-49 50-69 70 <

9 The perceived situation in the country is worse than the real situation in the families.

Q24. Compared to 5 years ago do you think that the general situation in Armenia … . Q25. And if you look at the situation in our country today, do you think that life in Armenia is generally... Q26. And if you think about the general situation of your family, how satisfied are you with it today?

Q24. Change of general Q25. General situation in Q26. General situation of situation in Armenia Armenia respondents’ families

50% 42% 40% 40% 34% 31% 30% 26% 24% 25% 25% 20% 20%

8% 10% 8% 10% 6%

0%

10 Conversations with friends remain the main expression of political “involvement”. Party membership is fairly high.

Q3. Now I will ask you several questions on your socio-political involvement.

Political involvement – affirmative replies

Do you regularly discuss political topics with your friends? 48%

Are you a member of any political party? 18%

Have you signed a petition during the last 3 years? 13% Did you support political parties or groups for some actions? 10% Have you taken part in a peaceful march or rally during the last 3 years? 8% Do you share political information on social media platforms? 7% Are you a member or a volunteer of an NGO for a social or political cause? 5% Have you joined a strike during the last 3 years? 2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

11 People are most aware of the political parties which currently sit in the Parliament and Armenian National Congress.

Q4. Please name up to 5 parties in Armenia, which you are most aware of? (Open-ended question without prompt) Parties people are most aware of Prosperous Armenia Party 78% Republican Party of Armenia 71% Rule of Law Party 51% ARF Dashnaktsutyun 34% Heritage Party 26% Armenian National Congress 16% People's Party 8% National Self-Determination Union 6% Communist Party of Armenia 5% People's Party of Armenia 3% Armenian National Movement 3% National Democratic Union 2% National Democratic Party 2% National Unity Party 2% Marxist Party of Armenia 1% United Labour Party 1% Social-Democratic Henchak Party 1% Ramkavar Liberal Party 1% Impeachment Alliance 1%

12 Getting closer to the elections, the awareness of all major parties sharply increases

Q4. Please name up to 5 parties in Armenia, which you are most aware of? (Open-ended question without prompt) Parties people are most aware of (Oct 2010 and Mar 2012) 39% Prosperous Armenia Party 78%

38% Republican Party of Armenia 71%

19% Rule of Law Party 51% Oct 2010 20% ARF Dashnaktsutyun Mar 2012 34%

9% Heritage Party 26%

8% Armenian National Congress 16%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

13 The three politicians people are most aware of are G. Tsarukyan, S. Sargsyan and A. Baghdasaryan. L. Ter-Petrosyan scores highest among opposition politicians. From the 202 politicians named by the respondents, only those mentioned in at least 1.0% of all replies are listed below. Q5. Please name up to 5 well known Armenian politicians, whom you are most aware of? (Open-ended question without prompt) Politicians people are most aware of Gagik Tsarukyan 52% 46% 34% Levon-Ter Petrosyan 20% 18% Artashes Geghamyan 17% Raffi Hovhannisyan 15% Vahan Hovhannisyan 12% Paruyr Hayrikyan 11% 11% Tigran Karapetyan 8% Stepan Demirchyan 6% Vazgen Manukyan 5% 4% Arshak Sadoyan 4% Taron Margaryan 4% 4% Armen Ashotyan 3% Mher Sedrakyan 2% 2% Aram Zaveni Sargsyan 2% Hegine Bisharyan 2% Armen Rustamyan 2% 1% Eduard Nalbandyan 1% Vardan Oskanyan 1%

14 Between Oct 2010 and Mar 2012, the awareness of most politicians has increased sharply.

Q5. Please name up to 5 well known Armenian politicians, whom you are most aware of? (Open-ended question without prompt)

Politicians people are most aware of

20% Gagik Tsarukyan 52% 33% Serzh Sargsyan 46% 11% Artur Baghdasaryan 34% 11% Levon-Ter Petrosyan 20% 20% Tigran Sargsyan 18% Oct 2010 Artashes Geghamyan 17% Mar 2012 8% Raffi Hovhannisyan 15% 5% Vahan Hovhannisyan 12% 8% Paruyr Hayrikyan 11% 7% Robert Kocharyan 11%

15 3. Electoral participation and party preferences

16 An impressive 64% of the respondents is already certain that they will vote in the upcoming Parliamentary Elections of May 2012.

Q7. You probably know that Parliamentary Elections will be held in Armenia this May. In these Parliamentary Elections, are you certain to vote, likely to vote, likely not to vote, certain not to vote? (The option “Have not decided yet” was not read out)

Voting disposition in the National Certain to vote, by Certain to vote, by Assembly elections of May 2012 party membership settlement type 100% 100% 100%

80% 80% 76% 80% 68% 70% 64% 64% 61% 60% 60% 60% 55%

40% 40% 40%

17% 20% 11% 20% 20% 3% 5% 0% 0% 0% Certain Likely to Have not Likely Certain Certain to vote in May Yerevan Urban Rural Total to vote vote decided not to not to 2012 yet vote vote Party Members Non members

17 Those who believe that there is a party which more or less represents their interests are 15 percentage points more likely to vote.

Q7. You probably know that Parliamentary Elections will be held in Armenia this May. In these Parliamentary Elections, are you certain to vote, likely to vote, likely not to vote, certain not to vote? (Here shown only “certain to vote”)

Q22. I will now read out some statements about political life. Please tell us how much you agree or disagree with them on a scale from 1 to 4 (Here shown only “strongly agree” + “agree”).

There is a party in our country which more or less represents my interests. 15

Interest in Politics 14

I feel I have a good understanding of the political issues in our country. 13

The authorities in our country obey the laws. 12

In our country politicians generally keep their promises after elections. 10

Elections offer one way to influence on politics for people like me. 9

In our country people are not afraid to express their opinions. 9

A change of Power can improve the situation in the country. 5

People in our country often vote in elections expecting a financial 1 compensation for their vote. One can never trust any party to keep its promises. -1

The ties between business and politics are too close in our country. -5 Most civil servants think of their personal interests rather than of our country. -13 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16

18 Prosperous Armenia and Republican Party of Armenia are the two obvious leaders at the beginning of the pre-campaign period (with statistically insignificant difference). However, a staggering 32.1% of electorate has not decided who to vote for yet, or refuses to answer or is against all. Q8. If the Parliamentary Elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for? (Open-ended question without prompt) Party ratings, first vote – RAW DATA (including D/K and R/A) Prosperous Armenia Party 27.1% Republican Party of Armenia 24.5% ARF Dashnaktsutyun 3.3% Armenian National Congress 3.2% Rule of Law Party 3.0% Heritage Party 2.6% National Self-Determination Union 0.7% Communist Party of Armenia 0.6% People's Party 0.5% Party of Armenian Women 0.3% National Unity Party 0.2% Ramkavar Liberal Party 0.1% National Democratic Union 0.1% National Democratic Party 0.1% Don't know 16.6% I would not vote for any party 8.8% I would not vote in the elections 2.4% Refuse to answer 6.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

19 Larger parties also lead in second vote preferences, whereas the smaller parties have comparatively higher second vote scores, indicating their potential.

Q8. If the Parliamentary Elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for? (Open-ended question without prompt)

Q10. If we imagine that the party you have named did not take part in the Parliamentary Elections, which party would be your second choice? (Single answer)

Party ratings, first and second votes – RAW DATA (including D/K and R/A)

27% Prosperous Armenia Party 15%

25% Republican Party of Armenia 11%

3% ARF Dashnaktsutyun 4% First vote 3% Second vote Rule of Law Party 4%

3% Armenian National Congress 2%

3% Heritage Party 3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

20 While 2/3 of today’s voters of the Republican Party already voted for it in 2007, Prosperous Armenia recruits most of its supporters from new voters.

Supporters of Prosperous Armenia and their claimed Supporters of Republican Party and their claimed voting behaviour in 2007 (recalculated to total figures) voting behaviour in 2007 (recalculated to total figures)

RPA, 2007 103,320 RPA, 2007 260,453

PAP, 2007 PAP, 2007 8,610 62,403 RPA, 2012 PAP, 2012

TOTAL TOTAL ARF, 2007 12,915 ARF, 2007 6,458 518,755 581,157 or or RoLP, 2007 27,983 27.1% RoLP, 2007 10,763 24.5% of voters of voters in Armenia in Armenia

Heritage, 2007 8,610 Heritage, 2007 2,153 (from the de- (from the de- facto facto population) population) Others / DK / Others / DK / 96,863 58,118 RA, 2007 RA, 2007

Claim not to have 269,063 Claim not to have 172,200 voted in 2007 voted in 2007

21 Considering the margin of error all four other parties may pass the 5% threshold. The statistically valid change is registered for RPA and ARF only.

Q8. If the Parliamentary Elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for? (Open-ended question without prompt)

Party ratings (only valid responses, without D/K and R/A)

Prosperous Armenia Party 38% 41%

Republican Party of Armenia 30% 37%

ARF Dashnaktsutyun 9% 5% Oct 2010 Armenian National Congress 5% Mar 2012 5%

Rule of Law Party 5% 5%

Heritage Party 5% 4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

22 The Republican Party of Armenia has the electorate which is the most certain to vote.

Q7. You probably know that Parliamentary Elections will be held in Armenia this May. In these Parliamentary Elections, are you certain to vote, likely to vote, likely not to vote, certain not to vote? (The option “Have not decided yet” was not read out)

Q8. If the Parliamentary Elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for? (Open-ended question without prompt)

“Certain to vote” and “Likely to vote” by party preferences

100% Likely to vote on the elections 80% 12% 17% 21% 17% Certain to vote on the elections 60%

40% 77% 68% 63% 19% 68% 20% 25% 0% Prosperous Republican Party Other Parties I would not vote DK or RA Armenia Party of Armenia for any party

23 The main reasons to vote for a certain party are the “ability [of the party] to help people”, and the “trust towards the leader and the members of the party”. These motivations do not change between party members and non- members. Q9. Looking at this card, please tell us which are the most important reasons for you to vote for that party? You can select several options, which you consider important.

Reasons to vote for a party

They are able to help the people 60% I trust the leader or members of the party 49% I like their political program 42% They are keeping their promises 39% They are powerful 38% Their previous performance is good 29% There is no other suitable party 28% I always voted for that party 26% They do not break any laws 25% I am a member of that party 13% I have obligations towards that party 10% I have personal links to the party or members 8% Other 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

24 27% of the Republican Party voters are members of a party (not necessarily of the Republican Party).

Q3.7. Are you a member of any political party (we will not ask you which)?

Q8. If the Parliamentary Elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for? (Open-ended question without prompt)

Party members would vote this way…

30% 27%

22% 20% 19% 20% 18%

10% 8%

3% 4%

0% Prosperous Republican Other Parties I would not I would not Refuse to Don't know Total Armenia Party of vote in vote for any answer Party Armenia elections party

25 The Republican Party and Prosperous Armenia are the best problem solvers. The opposition has relatively high strengths in the area of human rights / democracy, and Heritage also in environmental issues. Corruption and increase of prices seem irresolvable for any of the given parties.

Q27. Now I will read out a list of important problems in Armenia. Please tell us which party in your opinion could best solve them? (Party names in Armenian alphabetic order)

Problems PAP Heritage ANC RPA ARF RoLP Other None Unemployment 50% 6% 4% 15% 3% 5% 1% 17% Human rights/ lack of democ. 20% 15% 4% 20% 11% 12% 2% 17% Corruption 14% 7% 4% 24% 7% 6% 0% 38% Problems in the educ. system 31% 10% 3% 29% 5% 9% 1% 13% Problems in the health system 49% 2% 4% 21% 3% 2% 1% 18% Environmental issues 24% 14% 4% 28% 5% 5% 0% 21% Increase of prices 20% 5% 5% 30% 3% 1% 2% 35% Poverty 35% 3% 3% 21% 2% 2% 2% 34% Karabakh conflict 9% 3% 5% 52% 10% 3% 2% 17% External security of the country 11% 4% 3% 54% 8% 7% 2% 11%

26 While RPA is stronger on foreign policy and security issues, PAP scores higher in the ability to deal with socio-economic problems.

Q27. Now I will read out a list of important problems in Armenia. Please tell us which party in your opinion could best solve them? (Party names in Armenian alphabetic order)

Problem PAP RPA Unemployment 51% 16% Human rights/ lack of democracy 22% 22% Corruption 17% 23% Problems in the educational system 31% 29% Problems in the healthcare system 50% 21% Environmental issues 29% 26% Increase of prices 24% 29% Poverty 35% 23% Karabakh conflict 10% 52% External security of the country 14% 52%

27 People with a lower social position are likely to vote Prosperous Armenia or not vote for anyone. People with a higher social position tend to vote more for oppositional parties.

D6. On the following scale, step '0' corresponds to "the lowest position in the society"; step '10' corresponds to "the highest position in the society". Could you tell me on which step you would place family?

Q8. If the Parliamentary Elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for? (Open-ended question without prompt)

Average social position in the society (from 0 to 10) 10 9 8 7.4 7 6.3 6 5.4 5.0 5 4.5 4.7 4.1 4 3 2 1 0 Prosperous Republican Other parties I would not I would not DK or RA Total Armenia Party Party of vote in vote for any Armenia elections party

28 The majority of the electorate of other parties (non PAP and RPA), as well as those who would not vote in elections or for any party live in Yerevan.

Q8. If the Parliamentary Elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for? (Open-ended question without prompt), by settlement type

Party electorate by settlement 100%

80%

60% 51% 50% 44% 41% 39% 40% 36% 36% 33% 32% 35% 29% 30% 31% 32% 31% 29% 30% 24% 26% 23% 19% 20%

0% Prosperous Republican Other parties I would not I would not DK or RA Total Armenia Party Party of vote in vote for any Armenia elections party Yerevan Urban Rural

29 The majority of the electorate of the leading parties is female, whereas for the other parties it is male.

Q8. If the Parliamentary Elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for? (Open-ended question without prompt), by gender

Party electorate by gender 100%

80%

58% 60% 55% 52% 53% 48% 50% 50% 47% 45% 42% 40%

20%

0% Prosperous Republican Party Other parties DK or RA Total Armenia Party of Armenia

Male Female

30 The electorate of the leading two parties is younger, while people aged 30-49 are more than others determined not to vote in the coming elections.

Q8. If the Parliamentary Elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for? (Open-ended question without prompt), by age

Party electorate by age groups 100%

80%

60% 46% 45% 39% 40% 39% 40% 36% 37% 34%35% 31% 29% 27% 26% 23% 26% 23% 23% 20% 19% 21% 20% 13% 15%13% 10% 10% 9% 6% 6% 0% Prosperous Republican Other parties I would not I would not DK or RA Total Armenia Party Party of vote in vote for any Armenia elections party

18-29 30-49 50-69 70 <

31 The respondents with the lowest level of education vote mainly for Prosperous Armenia while the respondents with the highest level of education are mainly those who do not vote for any party.

Q8. If the Parliamentary Elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for? (Open-ended question without prompt), by education

Party electorate by education 100%

80%

60% 52% 49% 48% 44% 41% 43% 37% 40% 34% 36% 31% 33% 29% 29% 29% 28% 28% 24% 26% 26% 20% 20% 15%

0% Prosperous Republican Other parties I would not I would not DK or RA Total Armenia Party Party of vote in vote for any Armenia elections party

Incomplete or full secondary education College degree or incomplete higher education Complete higher education or higher

32 Prosperous Armenia is strongest among housewives and unemployed, whereas the Republican Party is strongest among state employees. Other parties are strongest among pensioners and unemployed.

Q8. If the Parliamentary Elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for? (Open-ended question without prompt), by occupation

Party electorate by occupation 40%

30% 27% 24% 23% 22%21% 19% 19% 20% 17% 17% 16%15% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 10% 10% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

0% State employee Private employee Pensioner House-woman, Unemployed house-man Prosperous Armenia Party Republican Party of Armenia Other parties DK or RA Total

33 The voters of RPA are much more optimistic, whereas the voters of other parties are much more pessimistic about the development over the last 5 years. Q24. Compared to 5 years ago do you think that the general situation in Armenia is worsened significantly, worsened somewhat, remained the same, improved somewhat, improved significantly? by party electorate

Perceived change of the situation in the country by party electorate 100% 3% 8% 13% 9% 9%

80% 33%

42% 45% 44% 60% 53% 5%

5% 23% 5% 40% 7% 19% 4% 20% 20% 18% 20% 36% 26% 19% 22% 12% 0% Prosperous Armenia Republican Party of Other parties DK or RA Total Party Armenia Worsened significantly Worsened somewhat Remained the same Improved somewhat Improved significantly

34 The most important factor defining the majoritarian voting (direct candidate) is the “political experience of the candidate”.

Q17. When you vote for a candidate from your constituency, as your direct majoritarian representative in the Parliament, what is most important for you? Please look at this list and select the most important factor (After writing down the first choice, ask:) And which is the second important factor for you?

Factors defining voting for majoritarian candidates 60% 56%

50%

40%

30% 23% 22% 22% 20% 20% 14% 10% 8% 10% 5% 7% 3% 4% 4% 3% 0% The candidate The candidate The candidate The candidate The candidate The candidate Other should be should be should have should be should be from should care of affiliated with my experienced in large financial personally our community the people preferred politics resources known to me or region political First choice Second choice

35 No clear prediction of the majoritarian seats is possible. However, it is likely that in 2012 National Assembly Prosperous Armenia will secure more direct seats that in 2007, but still fewer than the Republican Party.

Q15. Could you remember and tell us the name of the candidate (or the name of the party that candidate was affiliated to) for whom you voted as your direct majoritarian representative in the Parliamentary Elections in May, 2007? (Open-ended question without prompt, results grouped by party)

Q16 If you already know, could you tell us whom would you like to vote for as your direct majoritarian representative in the upcoming Parliamentary Elections in May, 2012? (Open-ended question without prompt, results grouped by party)

Majoritarian votes of PAP and RPA in 2007 and 2012 elections

60% 49% 50%

40% 36% 30% 30%

20% 16%

10%

0% 2007 2012

Prosperous Armenia Party Republican Party of Armenia

36 All four smaller parties are equally likely to pass the 5% threshold or not. Hence, the new parliament cannot be predicted today. Scenarios include these extremes (includes estimation of 41 majoritarian and 90 proportional seats):

Distribution of 131 parliament seats Distribution of 131 parliament seats with 4 without smaller parties smaller parties 6 26

63 54 62 51

Republican Party of Armenia Republican Party of Armenia Prosperous Armenia Party Prosperous Armenia Party Smaller parties and not-affiliated deputies Smaller parties and non-affiliated deputies

Scenario RPA PAP Other No smaller parties in NC 63 62 6 Discrepancy ± 5 seats 58 ≤ RPA ≤ 68 57 ≤ PAP ≤ 67 1 ≤ Others ≤ 11 4 smaller parties in NC 54 51 26 Discrepancy ± 5 seats 48 ≤ RPA ≤ 58 46 ≤ PAP ≤ 56 21 ≤ Others ≤ 31

37 4. Presidental elections

38 S. Sargsyan is the leader of the prospective presidential candidates.

Q18. If presidential elections were actually held next Sunday, which politician would you vote for? (Open-ended question without prompt)

Q19. And if we imagine that the politician that you have named did not take part in the presidential elections, which politician would be your second choice? (Open-ended question without prompt)

Candidate ratings – RAW DATA (including D/K and R/A)

33% Serzh Sargsyan 8% 12% Gagik Tsarukyan 13% 6% Robert Kocharyan 5% 4% Levon Ter-Petrosyan 2% Raffi Hovhannisyan 2% 2% First choice 1% Vahan Hovhannisyan 1% Second choice 1% Artur Baghdasaryan 3% Paruyr Hayrikyan 1% Vazgen Manukyan 1% Stepan Demirchyan 1% 16% D/K 13% 3% R/A 0% 14% I would vote for no one 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

39 From Oct 2010 to Mar 2012, S. Sargsyan’s popularity increased by 6 percentage points and G. Tsarukyan’s by only 2 percentage points.

Q18. If presidential elections were actually held next Sunday, which politician would you vote for? (Open-ended question without prompt)

Candidate ratings comparison – RAW DATA (including D/K and R/A)

27% Serzh Sargsyan 33% 10% Gagik Tsarukyan 12% 5% Robert Kocharyan 6% Oct 2010 4% Levon Ter-Petrosyan 4% Mar 2012 2% Raffi Hovhannisyan 2% 2% Vahan Hovhannisyan 1% 2% Artur Baghdasaryan 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

40 5. Political attitudes

41 Voters have little trust and support for the politics in Armenia and state institutions. It is striking, that supporters of the governmental party Prosperous Armenia favour a change of power.

Q22. I will now read out some statements about political life. Please tell us how much you agree or disagree with them.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

The ties between business and politics are too close in our country. 5% 6% 17% 73%

Most civil servants think of their personal interests rather than of our country. 6% 9% 19% 66% People in our country often vote in elections expecting a financial compensation 18% 14% 32% 36% for their vote. One can never trust any party to keep its promises. 18% 23% 23% 37%

A change of Power can improve the situation in the country. 27% 18% 28% 28%

There is a party in our country which more or less represents my interests. 29% 16% 31% 24%

I feel I have a good understanding of the political issues in our country. 24% 27% 33% 16%

In our country people are not afraid to express their opinions. 35% 19% 18% 28%

Elections offer one way to influence on politics for people like me. 45% 18% 18% 19%

The authorities in our country obey the laws. 54% 19% 14% 12%

In our country politicians generally keep their promises after elections. 50% 25% 20% 5%

PAP: A change of Power can improve the situation in the country. 19% 17% 33% 31%

RPA: A change of Power can improve the situation in the country. 37% 22% 19% 22%

Strongly disagree Somewhat disagree Somewhat agree Strongly agree

42 Only three party leaders are “liked” (higher than 5), with G. Tsarukyan ahead of S. Sargsyan and R. Hovhannisyan. Respondents who are politically more active are less inclined to evaluate G. Tsarukyan higher than those who are not active.

Q21. I will now read to you the names of party leaders. Could you please tell us how you feel about them, using a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means that you really dislike the person and 10 means you really like the person.

Average scores of politicians, scale 0-10

Gagik Tsarukyan 8.0

Serzh Sargsyan 6.6

Raffi Hovhannisyan 5.4

Vahan Hovhannisyan 4.8

Vazgen Manukyan 4.0

Artur Baghdasaryan 3.7

Tigran Karapetyan 3.7

Levon Ter-Petrosyan 3.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

43 Both S. Sargsyan and G. Tsarukyan have their lowest scores in Yerevan. G. Tsarukyan is best evaluated among people with lower education level, from rural settlements and among younger people. Further analysis shows that his electorate is more apolitical and reasons for voting are based on economic rather than political performance. Q21. I will now read to you the names of party leaders. Could you please tell us how you feel about them, using a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means that you really dislike the person and 10 means you really like the person. By demography (For S. Sargsyan and G. Tsarukyan)

Total 8.0 6.6 Higher 7.0 6.4 College 8.1 6.6 Secondary 8.6 6.8 70 < 7.9 7.0 50-69 7.4 6.7 30-49 8.1 6.6 18-29 8.5 6.6 Female 8.1 6.7 Male 7.9 6.6 Rural 8.6 7.1 Urban 8.0 6.6 Yerevan 7.5 6.2

10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 G. Tsarukyan S.Sargsyan

44 For the first 10 politicians mentioned most often, the main feature is “experienced”, except for G. Tsarukyan (“financially powerful”) and T. Karapetyan (“caring about the people”).

Q6. Which of the following characteristics best describe the politicians you just mentioned? (Asked for politicians, mentioned in the open-ended question without prompt)

3. Is 4. Is 5. Is 1. Is 2. Is caring financi- politi- 6. Is Politician exper- N credible about ally cally likeable ienced people powerful powerful 1. Tsarukyan G. 77% 87% 93% 94% 79% 93% 833 2. Sargsyan S. 100% 71% 66% 80% 87% 70% 741 3. Baghdasaryan A. 69% 46% 41% 47% 62% 51% 534 4. Ter-Petrosyan L. 84% 36% 32% 47% 65% 51% 328 5. Sargsyan T. 95% 70% 64% 63% 74% 69% 281 6. Geghamyan A. 75% 42% 40% 33% 54% 48% 260 7. Hovhannisyan R. 82% 75% 66% 35% 62% 71% 243 8. Hovhannisyan V. 87% 69% 53% 33% 70% 66% 191 9. Kocharyan R. 89% 60% 48% 83% 82% 59% 180 10. Karapetyan T. 61% 56% 76% 67% 47% 66% 134

45 Thank you for your attention

Poll: A Snapshot of Pre-Electoral Armenia Հարցում. նախանտրական պատկերը Հայաստանում

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