Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

BI-WEEKLY BRIEFING VOL. 16 NO. 10 21 MAY 2014

Contents'' ' Analytical'Articles' ! PUTIN'APPOINTS'RUSSIAN'MILITARY'GENERAL'' TO'RULE'THE'NORTH'CAUCASUS'' ' ' ' ' ' ' '''''3!' Valeriy!Dzutsev! ! KAZAKHSTAN’S'KASHAGAN'OIL'FIELDS'FACES'' PROBLEMS'AND'SOARING'COSTS 6 John!C.K.!Daly! ! IS'AN'IRANOCAZERBAIJANI'RAPPROCHEMENT'TAKING'PLACE?' ' ' '''10! Stephen!Blank! ! SEPARATISM'IN'UZBEKISTAN?'KARAKALPAKSTAN'AFTER'CRIMEA' ' '''13! Slavomír!Horák! ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Field'Reports' ' GEORGIA'ENDORSES'ANTICDISCRIMINATION'LAW' ' ' !!!! !!!17! Eka!Janashia! ! NEW'GOVERNMENT'FORMED'IN'' ' ' ' '''' !!!19! Haroutiun!Khachatrian! ! ADDRESSING'TORTURE'IN'KYRGYZSTAN' ' ' ' !!! !!!! !!!21' Ebi!Spahiu! ! TURKMENISTAN’S'PRESIDENT'VISITS'TAJIKISTAN' ' ' ' !!23' Oleg!Salimov! THE CENTRAL ASIA-CAUCASS ANALYST

Editor: Svante E. Cornell

Associate Editor: Niklas Nilsson

Assistant Editor, News Digest: Alima Bissenova

Chairman, Editorial Board: S. Frederick Starr

The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is an English-language journal devoted to analysis of the current issues facing Central Asia and the Caucasus. It serves to link the business, governmental, journalistic and scholarly communities and is the global voice of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center. The Editor of the Analyst solicits most articles and field reports, however authors are encouraged to suggest topics for future issues or submit articles and field reports for consideration. Such articles and field reports cannot have been previously published in any form, must be written in English, and must correspond precisely to the format and style of articles and field reports published in The Analyst, described below. The Analyst aims to provide our industrious and engaged audience with a singular and reliable assessment of events and trends in the region written in an analytical tone rather than a polemical one. Analyst articles reflect the fact that we have a diverse international audience. While this should not affect what authors write about or their conclusions, this does affect the tone of articles. Analyst articles focus on a newsworthy topic, engage central issues of the latest breaking news from the region and are backed by solid evidence. Articles should normally be based on local language news sources. Each 1,100-1,500 word analytical article must provide relevant, precise and authoritative background information. It also must offer a sober and analytical judgment of the issue as well as a clinical evaluation of the importance of the event. Authors must cite facts of controversial nature to the Editor who may contact other experts to confirm claims. Since Analyst articles are based on solid evidence, rather than rumors or conjecture, they prove to be reliable sources of information on the region. By offering balanced and objective analysis while keeping clear of inflammatory rhetoric, The Analyst does more to inform our international readership on all sides of the issues. The Editor reserves the right to edit the article to conform to the editorial policy and specifications of The Analyst and to reject the article should it not be acceptable to our editorial committee for publication. On acceptance and publication of the edited version of the article, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of The Johns Hopkins University-The Nitze School of Advanced International Studies will issue an honorarium to the author. It is up to the individual author to provide the correct paperwork to the Institute that makes the issuing of an honorarium possible. The copyright for the article or field report will reside with the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst. However, the author may use all or part of the contracted article in any book or article in any media subsequently written by the author, provided that a copyright notice appears giving reference to the contracted article’s first publication by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, The Johns Hopkins University, Nitze School of Advanced International Studies."

Submission Guidelines: Analytical Articles require a three to four sentence Key Issue introduction to the article based on a news hook. Rather than a general, overarching analysis, the article must offer considered and careful judgment supported with concrete examples. The ideal length of analytical articles is between 1,100 and 1,500 words. The articles are structured as follows: KEY ISSUE: A short 75-word statement of your conclusions about the issue or news event on which the article focuses. BACKGROUND: 300-450 words of analysis about what has led up to the event or issue and why this issue is critical to the region. Include background information about the views and experiences of the local population. IMPLICATIONS: 300-450 words of analysis of the ramifications of this event or issue, including where applicable, implications for the local people’s future. CONCLUSIONS: 100-200 words that strongly state your conclusions about the impact of the event or issue.

Field Reports focus on a particular news event and what local people think about the event. Field Reports address the implications the event or activity analyzed for peoples’ lives and their communities. Field Reports do not have the rigid structure of Analytical Articles, and are shorter in length, averaging ca. 700-800 words.

Those interested in joining The Analyst’s pool of authors to contribute articles, field reports, or contacts of potential writers, please send your CV to: and suggest some topics on which you would like to write.

Svante E. Cornell Research Director; Editor, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University 1619 Massachusetts Ave. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, USA. Tel. +1-202-663-5922; 1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 3!

PUTIN APPOINTS RUSSIAN MILITARY GENERAL TO RULE THE NORTH CAUCASUS Valeriy Dzutsev

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is reshaping the administration of the North Caucasus and reshuffling his envoys to the region. The changes reflect Moscow’s frustration with the developments in this unstable territory, the declining financial resources of the central government, and a rebound of imperialist ideology in the Russian Federation. Previous attempts by the Russian government to use economic development as a policy tool to stop the violence and to assert greater control over the North Caucasus largely failed. Moscow’s fears of North Caucasian separatism still play a prominent role in the government’s policies in the region. Having crushed the large-scale insurgency, Russia still faces simmering conflict and has a profound lack of vision for the future of the region.

BACKGROUND: On May 12, resorts in the North Caucasus that President Putin dismissed his envoy to would resolve the region’s the North Caucasus, Russia’s vice unemployment and eliminate the social Prime Minister Alexander Khloponin. base for the insurgency became the His replacement, Sergei Melikov, came hallmark of Khloponin’s term. from Russia’s military circles. Until his However, the government’s promises most recent appointment, Lieutenant to invest billions of dollars and attract General Melikov was the commander vast funding from private investors to of the joint military force that combats transform the North Caucasus did not insurgency in the North Caucasus. The materialize. As the investment climate administrative changes did not stop in Russia progressively worsened in the there. On the same day, Putin set up past several years and practically the Ministry for North Caucasian collapsed after Russia’s latest incursion Affairs and Development. The into Ukraine, the central government’s governor the of Krasnoyarsk region in ability to sustain lavish subsidies to the Siberia, Lev Kuznetsov became the North Caucasus is apparently coming head of the newly established ministry. to an end. Alexander Khloponin was appointed to Khloponin was commonly seen as a represent the President of Russia in the representative of Moscow’s soft-liners North Caucasian Federal District at the in the North Caucasus. However, he time of its establishment in 2010. had very limited influence over the Khloponin was known as a successful counterinsurgency operations in the businessman and an influential region. Yet, Khloponin was certainly governor of the Krasnoyarsk region able to influence Moscow’s policies in prior to his appointment in the North the region via his associates in the Caucasus. Constructing world-class ski Kremlin. For example, whether ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 4!

IMPLICATIONS: Putin has essentially divided the functions of his envoy into two parts. Military control has been assigned to the newly appointed head of the North Caucasian Federal District, Sergei Melikov. Economic control has been handed over to the Ministry for North Caucasian Affairs and Development. The new coincidentally or not, the process of system resembles the old imperial dialogue between Dagestan’s Salafi and Russian rule in the Caucasus when the Sufi communities started at the time Russian Emperor appointed a General when Khloponin was Moscow’s envoy. Governor to rule the region. Even the It appears that the Russian government special ministry for North Caucasian could not agree on how much affairs has by some observers, including discretionary power Khloponin should the well-known North Caucasus expert be granted, hence in some North Ivan Sukhov, been termed “the Caucasian republics such as Kabardino- Ministry for Colonial Affairs.” Balkaria and North Ossetia, Khloponin According to Sukhov’s commentary in could easily reprimand regional the Russian journal Profil, the officials. In Chechnya and Dagestan, “reconfiguration of [North] Caucasian however, Khloponin held much less governance looks like a demonstration sway over regional authorities and of resoluteness in anticipation of bad rarely said anything critical about times.” In other words, Moscow is them. preparing for a war in the region, rather Reputedly a soft-liner, Khloponin may than its peaceful development and have been appointed specifically to integration. offset the risks and challenges In the beginning of May, President surrounding the Sochi Olympics. He Putin abolished all Federal District embodied Moscow’s promises of level departments of the Russian grandiose developmental plans in the Interior Ministry, leaving only the North Caucasus that supposedly should Interior Ministry’s North Caucasian have impressed both republican elites Directorate intact. The Ministry for the and the general population. As soon as North Caucasian Affairs and the Olympics were over, however, the Development became the third such changes were probably inevitable. An ministry in Russia, the other two being increasingly hardline approach is the Ministry for Development of looming ahead for the region as Crimea and the Ministry for Moscow does not need to buy local Development of the Russian Far East elites or the wider population, nor is it region. The recent acquisition of projected to have enough funds to do so Crimea has further complicated the in the near future. already complex administrative structure of the Russian Federation, ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 5! prompting the revival of imperial or nearly autonomous from Moscow, like quasi-imperial mechanisms such as de- Kadyrov in Chechnya, or they are fully facto General Governors and regional under Moscow’s control but cannot agencies. exercise much control in their Even though Moscow’s frequent republics, like the President of reforms in the North Caucasus reflect a Karachaevo-Cherkessia, Boris Ebzeev, level of crisis in the Russian who resigned from his position before government’s view of the region, there the end of his first term in 2011 for is also a certain rationale in its moves. precisely this reason. The Kremlin apparently intends to CONCLUSIONS: The frequent establish a more direct rule in the changes of governing rules in the North North Caucasus, further reducing the Caucasus indicate that Moscow is autonomy of the republics. Instead of grappling to find a solution for the an outright abolishment of the unstable region. Its emphasis on republics, Moscow chose to construct control, rather than inclusion and another level of regional governance – public participation, renders Moscow’s the North Caucasian Federal District – tasks in the region rather futile and tied that would gradually supplant and to the extensive use of force. The latest replace the republican authorities. administrative reshuffles show that According to Russian experts, Sergei Russia’s policies in the North Caucasus Melikov will have the power to appoint increasingly resemble those chiefs of federal agencies in the North implemented by the Russian Empire in Caucasus. The administrative takeover the 19th century. Devising special rules is carried out under a powerful for ethnically non-Russian regions will government-sponsored campaign about likely worsen tensions in the North corrupt local elites that should be Caucasus, rather than mitigate the replaced with honest people sent problem of violence. While Moscow directly from Moscow. may consider the risk of violence to be Russia’s plans for a hostile takeover of an acceptable price for controlling the the North Caucasus is naturally North Caucasus and retaining Russia’s meeting stiff, though muted resistance territorial integrity, discriminatory in the region. Melikov will find it hard policies reinvigorate the grievances that to subdue Chechnya’s strongman, will make the North Caucasus less Ramzan Kadyrov, and is certain to friendly to the central government. encounter some opposition in Dagestan AUTHOR'S BIO: Valeriy Dzutsev and elsewhere. Despite a long-standing is a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at policy of directly appointing governors Jamestown Foundation and Doctoral in the North Caucasus after the Student in Political Science at Arizona abolition of governor elections, Russia State University. is dissatisfied with the type of leaders in the region. Regional governors tend to either become overly self-reliant and ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 6!

KAZAKHSTAN’S KASHAGAN OIL FIELDS FACES PROBLEMS AND SOARING COSTS John C.K. Daly

In the past two decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan has become a major oil producer. In 2013, Kazakhstan’s oil production surged to roughly 1.64 million barrels per day. A key element in Kazakhstan’s continued growth in oil exports will be the further development of its giant onshore Tengiz and Karachaganak fields and the coming online of its massive Caspian offshore Kashagan fields, along with the development of additional export capacity. But while Tengiz and Karachaganak are already up and running, Kashagan’s development has been far more troubled, and the difficulties in bringing it online persist.

BACKGROUND: Kazakhstan’s gas reaching the surface is mixed with offshore Kashagan Caspian Sea field, hydrogen sulfide (H2S) content of 19 discovered in 2000, is the largest oil percent. Admixed with the field uncovered in the last 30 years, hydrocarbons, these are some of the with potential reserves estimated to be highest concentrations of the toxic, as high as 70 billion barrels. For metal-eating acid ever encountered. comparison, the Norwegian sector of H2S is heavier than air, very poisonous, the joint British-Norwegian North Sea corrosive, flammable, and explosive. oil fields contains approximately 30 The northern Caspian’s shallow depth billion barrels of recoverable crude. and extreme winter climatic conditions Kashagan is the sole “superfield” to be have precluded the use of conventional discovered in the last four decades. The drilling and production technologies total Kashagan Contract area covers such as fixed or floating platforms, more than 2,125 square miles of forcing the offshore facilities to be northern Caspian Sea waters and installed on a series of costly artificial contains five separate fields - Kashagan, islands (drilling and hub islands) that Kalamkas A, Kashagan Southwest, house drilling and processing Aktote and Kairan. equipment far out at sea. Accordingly, delays, environmental concerns and Kashagan is in Kazakhstan’s northern costs have soared. Caspian in shallow waters that freeze over for around five months each Under terms of the North Caspian Sea winter. Kashagan’s oil reservoir lies 2.6 Production Sharing Agreement signed miles below the seabed at very high in 2001, Italy’s ENI under the joint- pressure (770 psi), and the associated venture company name of AgipKCO (Agip Kazakhstan North Caspian ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 7!

ahead of schedule; it was the first regional state to obtain a favorable credit rating; the first to implement financial institutions approaching Western standards of efficiency and reliability; and the first to develop and introduce a national fully funded pension program.

In validating the structural reforms Operating Co., or NCOC) currently carried out by the Kazakh government manages Kashagan. AgipKCO consists with its oil revenues, the European of Kazakhstan’s national hydrocarbon Union formally recognized Kazakhstan concern KazMunaiGas and Japan’s as a market-based economy in October Inpex, both of which originally held an 2000, while Washington accorded 8.33 percent share in the project, while Kazakhstan similar recognition in ConocoPhillips holds a 9.26 percent March 2002. share. Four major foreign oil companies currently dominate the project – Italy’s Kashagan finally started producing oil ENI, France’s Total, U.S. ExxonMobil on September 11, 2013, but a mere 13 days and Anglo-Dutch Shell, which all held later production was suspended after a 18.52 percent stakes each. gas leak at the pipeline from Island D to the onshore Bolashak refinery was In autumn 2007, however, the Kazakh discovered. After the leak was repaired, government, citing environmental production resumed but on October 9 concerns and cost overruns, output was again halted when another renegotiated the PSA agreement. When gas leak was discovered. The cause of the dust settled in January, the problem was identified as “sulfide KazMunaiGas increased its share in the stress cracking,” a form of corrosion Kashagan project from 8.33 percent to caused by Kashagan’s H S. On April 23 16.81 percent as a result of its foreign 2 a NCOC executive said that the consortium partners surrendering 2 company had concluded that 55 miles of percent apiece of their stake while subsea pipelines carrying natural gas agreeing to pay up to US$ 5 billion as and oil from Kashagan offshore wells compensation for lost profits due to for processing onshore oil fields will cost overruns and significant delays in need to be replaced. commercial production. The Kazakh government had based its IMPLICATIONS: Oil revenues economic forecasts on revenue from have played an increasingly important Kashagan, which was expected from an role in the Kazakh economy. Among its initial 180,000 barrels a day (bpd) to Commonwealth of Independent States 370,000 by 2015. NCOC estimates neighbors, Kazakhstan was the first to Kashagan’s reserves at 38 billion pay off its International Monetary barrels, with 10 billion barrels Fund debts following economic recoverable, along with estimated reconstruction in 2000, seven years ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 8! natural gas reserves of more than 1 CONCLUSIONS: Kazakhstan trillion cubic meters. urgently needs Kashagan’s projected Kashagan has cost an estimated US$ 50 production cash inflow revenues to hit billion so far, five times early estimates. its fiscal targets for 2014, earlier estimated at up to three percent of gross It is obvious that the highly optimistic domestic product. But for the moment, production output figures of 370,000 the Kazakh government is downplaying bpd by 2015 and rising to 1.5 million bpd the impact of the Kashagan delays. On soon after will not be met anytime May 2, Kazakhstan’s Minister for the soon. NCOC Chairman and Managing economy and budget planning Erbolat Director Pierre Offan resigned on May Dossaev said, “For the state budget, we 1 and will be replaced by ENI’s head of were not expecting any addition of exploration and development Claudio income this year or next year,” he said. Descalzi. As for when production “For GDP growth, yes: maybe half a might resume Descalzi said, “It's worse percent [impact], but we are trying than we considered. We have already right now to cover this with more put in place contingency plans to cover exploration.” a possible lack of production in 2015.” Further financial trauma at Kashagan The Kashagan pipeline debacle may be may occur as the full extent of the H2S just the tip of the iceberg. If the corrosion is determined. MFX Broker pipeline issue is the result of not using analyst Sergei Nekrasov said, “After sour service steel pipe as required for replacing, the new pipelines, consisting the H2S content of the reservoir fluid of a special alloy, will be 10-15 times and if they also used regular pipe more expensive than those used instead of sour service pipe for the well previously. The replacement cost could completions, then there is a very good reach US$ 250-500 billion,” which could chance that very expensive well work- balloon Kashagan’s costs to US$ 400- overs are necessary, which would along 600 billion. with the pipelines cost billions in additional repairs. Kashagan, now the world’s most expensive energy project, symbolizes However, teething problems aside, it is that the easy oil is truly gone. Other too early to count Kashagan out. At potential opportunities, such as Brazil’s least one investor is betting that offshore southern Atlantic fields, are Kashagan will fulfill its potential. On just as tough as Kashagan, if not more September 7, 2013, Chinese President Xi difficult. Kashagan has failed to live up Jinping signed a US$ 45 billion to the expectations of constituting agreement with Kazakhstan’s state Kazakhstan’s energy crown jewel, and energy company KazMunaiGas for the only certainty at this point is that state-owned China National Petroleum increased costs will be substantial Corp. to purchase an 8.33 per cent stake before production resumes. in Kashagan. AUTHOR’S BIO: Dr. John C.K. Daly is an international correspondent ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 9! for UPI and a Nonresident Senior Fellow with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center.

! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 10!

IS AN IRANO-AZERBAIJANI RAPPROCHEMENT TAKING PLACE? Stephen Blank

Iran is substantially modifying its policies in the Caucasus and is seeking to draw Azerbaijan closer. The high point of this rapprochement was the visit of Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev to Iran in April, a visit arranged after he and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani met in Davos in January. The visit received glowing reporting in both countries and led to the signing of several memoranda on minor issues. However, the key is that Iranian Supreme Leader Seyid Ali Khamenei expressed assurances of greater bilateral cooperation as a result of the visit as well as Iran’s support for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, including apparently Nagorno-Karabakh.

BACKGROUND: During 2012-13, However, beyond incitement Iran has these bilateral relations were about as also engaged in more violent and bad as one could imagine. Azerbaijan’s clandestine activities. In early 2012, efforts at modernization and reform, Azerbaijan had arrested 22 people, including tolerance for religious including some Lebanese Hezbollah minorities, and refusal to commit to operatives, for complicity in a plot to any specific form of Islam aroused assassinate Israeli and U.S. diplomats Iranian ire. Indeed, Iran played the and Jewish children in Azerbaijan. This Islamist card by inciting what used to episode perfectly exemplifies the be called agitation and propaganda linkage between internal and external against the Aliyev government, challenges to Azerbaijan’s security, denouncing Azerbaijan as an especially as Azerbaijan also caught the insufficiently Islamic or even anti- Iranian agent who was leading the Islamic state. Iran was also extremely incitement against the regime. In May anxious that Azerbaijan might allow the same year, Azerbaijan exposed a itself to serve as a base for either the terrorist plan to kill foreigners at the U.S. or Israel’s military forces. Indeed, Eurovision contest, while reports on many occasions Iran has let it be emerged in December of a fresh plot known that it will hit back at even as Iran and Azerbaijan were Azerbaijan if any such strike occurs. discussing how to improve relations Given the sizable Iranian military between them. Thus, Iran has incited capability in the Caspian, its arsenal of unrest in Azerbaijan and three separate missiles and the pro-Iranian terrorist terror plots against Azerbaijan’s groups at its disposal, these could government, Israel’s ambassador there, hardly be considered empty threats. ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 11!

Similarly, Azerbaijan has announced its readiness to make progress on the Caspian littoral and demarcation issues. Iran might do so too at the upcoming conference of the littoral parties as the noises coming out of Moscow on this issue appear to be optimistic that a resolution may finally be in sight.

Iran is clearly trying to improve its and Azerbaijani Jews were uncovered external relations in all direction, not in 2012. just with the U.S. or the South Iran clearly waged a low-level but Caucasus. It is negotiating an unremitting and long-running agreement with Russia that would campaign of subversion, terrorism, and allow for a resumption of Russian threats against Azerbaijan, fearing that defense sales in return for oil and the country may be used as a base by would essentially break the sanctions Israel or the U.S., in which case Iran regime. It also has a strong relationship has on several occasions threatened with Turkmenistan from where it Azerbaijan that it would be attacked. imports gas. Yet, Iran has hinted that it Finally, Iran is also the main Caspian is willing to do serious business with actor responsible for the impasse on Turkey, and to transport gas through reaching a legal delimitation of the Sea, the Caspian Sea if it can be delimited. a stance that clearly impedes This in turn necessitates coming to Azerbaijan’s efforts to explore and to terms with Azerbaijan as well as a prior help build a Trans-Caspian pipeline and resolution of outstanding issues network of Caspian suppliers who pertaining to the Caspian Sea itself. would ship gas through its ports and There may be circumstances whereby pipelines. Iran would like to export its own gas IMPLICATIONS: Undoubtedly, through the Caspian and maybe even Rouhani’s efforts at détente with the Turkmen gas. Either way, it must then West have led him to reduce the deal with Turkey and Azerbaijan but pressure on Iran by improving ties with risk Russia’s displeasure. In other Azerbaijan and other South Caucasian words, an Irano-Azerbaijani states. Yet, while the potential détente rapprochement, to the extent that it is with the U.S. is clearly a factor, so is serious and genuine, could open up Crimea. Moscow is steadily building its many of the logjams in the Caspian Caspian Fleet, its North Caucasus basin that have inhibited progress on Military District, and its forces in key issues like Caspian delimitation Armenia and could clearly threaten and energy flows from Central Asia to Azerbaijan, which must realize it is Europe. alone and needs friends. Thus, Baku This process has only begun although it has signed new agreements with is clearly discernible. But it clearly Turkey on defense cooperation. ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 12! bears watching for it will have a big environment within which Azerbaijan impact on many critical issues, must now function. Would it be far- potentially the Nagorno-Karabakh fetched, then to hope that this issue, but certainly the relationships rapprochement, if it goes forward, between Iran, Azerbaijan, and Turkey could help generate a so called virtuous both regarding the Caucasus and energy circle of relationships involving Tehran flows to Europe. Likewise, it will and Washington as well as Baku? clearly have a major impact on the Should such a development come to treatment of the Azeri minority in Iran, pass, the repercussion and benefits which has been a long-term object of garnered thereby would far exceed or Tehran’s suspicion, due to its transcend the borders of those three questionable loyalty to Iran and Iran’s states and could benefit Europe and the vulnerability to a Crimea-type scenario entire Caucasus. On the other hand, given the presence of that minority in failure to move forward leaves the border areas adjacent to Azerbaijan, as entire Caspian basin in a state of happened in 1920-21, and 1946. “frozen conflict” and tension. That is a Likewise, the complex issue of condition where ultimately neither demarcating the Caspian, the potential Baku nor Tehran benefits. Therefore, if for its militarization or alternatively its for no other reason, the stakes involved demilitarization, Iran’s ties to merit giving this relationship the Turkmenistan, and especially to Russia scrutiny and attention it deserves. are all issues that will be affected by the AUTHOR’S BIO: Stephen Blank is course of this relationship. a Senior Fellow with the American CONCLUSIONS: This relationship Foreign Policy Council. is also closely connected with the ongoing 5+1 negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program. Iran is clearly looking to break out of its previous isolation, and like Azerbaijan, reduce the number of hostile states that it must deal with. Its overtures to Azerbaijan and Georgia as well as Armenia are also intended to register in Western capitals. So too is the announcement that NATO’s relationship with Azerbaijan has now reached the level of strategic partnership, a clear response to the Crimean crisis. However, the democracy and human rights issues still plague Baku’s relations with

Washington, which may help explain its overtures or receptivity to Iran, especially given the charged ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 13!

SEPARATISM IN UZBEKISTAN? KARAKALPAKSTAN AFTER CRIMEA Slavomír Horák

Karakalpakstan is a remote autonomous republic on the Western edge of Uzbekistan in the lowlands of the Amudarya River. It suffers from high unemployment and substantial emigration to neighboring Kazakhstan and Russia, not least due to the hydrocarbons boom in Kazakhstan’s Mangyshlak. However, the crisis in Ukraine is having ramification also in this region of Uzbekistan. Leaflets have been distributed around the region in recent weeks, appealing for the organization of a referendum on the region’s independence and secession from Uzbekistan and/or to request annexation to Kazakhstan or even Russia. Can we expect a new round of instability and state partition in Central Asia in line with the continuing dissolution of Ukraine?

BACKGROUND: Karakalpakstan receive separate support from Moscow. became part of the Uzbek Soviet On the other hand, in Tashkent’s Socialist Republic (SSR) during the perspective, Karakalpakstan remained a national delimitation in the 1920s and backward and remote area which was 30s. It was initially declared an needed mostly during the cotton Autonomous region within the Kazakh season. Cotton production also caused Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic the catastrophic drying out of Aral Sea (ASSR). It was later transferred to the with fatal consequences for direct administration of the Russian Karakalpakstan. Soviet Socialist Federative Republic (of The “parade of sovereignty” among the which the Kazakh ASSR was part as Soviet republics was also reflected in well) and its status was upgraded to Karakalpakstan and the region ASSR in 1932. However, after the proclaimed its sovereignty in December declaration of the Kazakh SSR, 1990. However, its separation from the Karakalpakstan was separated from the Uzbek SSR was vaguely defined and Russian federation and attached to the did not envision the dissolution of the Uzbek SSR. Soviet Union. Yet, Uzbekistan’s Hence, Karakalpakstan became part of declaration of independence also gave contemporary Uzbekistan largely for rise to some discussion on administrative reasons. However, the Karakalpakstan’s status, mostly in republic was granted an autonomous intellectual circles. Several initiative status with its own Supreme Soviet, groups such as Halk mapi (The and as such the republic could develop People’s Interest) emerged in the its own culture and literature, and country. The idea of full independence ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 14!

Groups such as Erkin Karakalpakstan (Free Karakalpakstan) and others have appeared in the news without detailed information about their leaders and members. Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008 also gave rise to debates over a similar step for Karakalpakstan.

IMPLICATIONS: Uzbekistan’s for Karakalpakstan or transferring the authorities fiercely deny any rumors territory to Kazakh administration about separatism in Karakalpakstan and resonated also in neighboring and juxtapose such news with facts pointing newly independent Kazakhstan. to improved living conditions and rapid However, President Karimov’s development in the republic. At the solutions to Uzbekistan’s internal same time, the economic, health and problems immediately after the social disaster of the region due to country’s independence rapidly pacified ecological catastrophe as well as any separatist inclinations. Uzbekistan’s overall poor economic Karakalpakstan was declared an performance have forced tens of autonomous republic in Uzbekistan’s thousands of Karakalpakstan’s constitution of 1992, and inhabitants out of their homeland to Karakalpakstan’s constitution adopted Russia and Kazakhstan. Uzbek in April 1993 confirmed the status with authorities allow migration from the provision that an all- Karakalpakstan to Tashkent and the Karakalpakstan referendum could lead Tashkent region, which remains to the region’s independence. The blocked for the inhabitants of groups and people advocating increased Uzbekistan’s other welayats autonomy for Karakalpakstan have (provinces). It thus implicitly been systematically silenced since the acknowledges Karakalpakstan’s 1990s. The loyal heads of the problem and the risk of social tension autonomous territory’s government in the region. were appointed and removed according Starting from March and April this to the republic’s economic performance. year, Karakalpakstan is seeing Since 2002, Karakalpakstan is ruled by increasing activism. Several activists Supreme Soviet Head Musa were detained for alleged or real Yerniyazov who has been able to distribution of leaflets calling for a distribute the most profitable key referendum on Karakalpakstan’s positions in the republic among his independence. The leaflets were signed family and kin. in the name of Alga Karakalpakstan Although politics in the region have Azatlyk hareketi (Cheer up seemed relatively quiet and stable to Karakalpakstan Freedom Movement), external observers, several attempts to which has not yet been detected in the call for separation have occurred. ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 15! region. The activity is assumed to have on internet forums demonstrate that a emerged from below and is connected fertile ground for such agitation exists with the developments in Crimea and at least among parts of Eastern Ukraine. Uzbekistan’s Karakalpakstan’s population. In case president apparently judged the support is provided from the outside developments to be serious enough to and the voices favoring separation from award the region an urgent visit. Uzbekistan become louder, the quantity Although no information is available of independence supporters could on potential support from outside, increase. foreign powers could make use of CONCLUSIONS: The growing separatist moods in the region. Karakalpakstan issue could be utilized While rumors circulate of Western, in order to force Uzbekistan’s particularly U.S. intentions to leadership to comply with the interests overthrow the Uzbek regime and gain of any international actor, Russia in access to the country’s natural particular. The outside interest is resources, the potential gains would focused mostly on the rich resources of hardly be worth the destabilization of the region, which are hardly accessible Central Asia that would ensue. By as long as Karakalpakstan remains contrast, apart from short-term and under Tashkent’s administration. situational motives for encouraging Internal and unsolved social and separatist movements, the Russian economic problems, on the other hand, government has several long-term feed growing dissatisfaction among the reasons for at least threatening to region’s population and is a key source destabilize Uzbekistan. Russia’s ability of rekindled Karakalpak nationalism. In to access and defend its investments in this situation, any internal and external Uzbekistan, the U.S.-Uzbekistan incentives could effectively rapprochement, the perspective of an complement each other to produce a approaching but unpredictable change multiplication effect and lead to of leadership in Uzbekistan, as well as demands for using the right of Uzbekistan’s relationship to Russia- secession envisioned in backed integration organizations could Karakalpakstan’s constitution. In this all present sufficient arguments for situation, a highly negative reaction Russia to use the Karakalpakstan issue from Tashkent could be expected, and to its own advantage. Uzbekistan left the situation could quickly spiral out of the Collective Security Treaty in 2013 control as we are currently seeing in (See February 20, 2013 CACI Analyst) Ukraine. and has refused any discussion of In any case, opening this Pandora’s Box membership in the Eurasian Customs could have unpredictable consequences Union. not only for Uzbekistan. The current Looking at the problem from inside tendency towards redrawing post- Karakalpakstan, interviews with the Soviet borders in Georgia and Ukraine local population as well as discussions as well as, hypothetically, in ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 16!

Uzbekistan could have ramifications for many other problematic regions in the post-Soviet space. AUTHOR’S BIO: Slavomír Horák is a researcher with The Department of Russian and East European Studies, The Institute of International Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague. He was a Fulbright Fellow at CACI in 2012-2013.

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GEORGIA ENDORSES ANTI- DISCRIMINATION LAW Eka Janashia

On May 2, Georgia’s parliament equality – in charge of overseeing the unanimously adopted a contested anti- implementation of anti-discrimination discrimination bill required under the legislation, the adopted law places this Visa Liberalization Action Plan in competence under the Public order to attain the short-term visa-free Defender’s Office (PDO). regime with EU. According to Georgian Young Lawyers’ The law on “Elimination of All Forms Association (GYLA), the existing of Discrimination” envisages the legislation already empowers the PDO introduction of mechanisms against with almost the same authority. The discrimination conducted on the purpose of the bill thus should have grounds of race, color, language, gender, been to establish new and more age, citizenship, native identity, birth, effective legal instruments, rather than place of residence, property, social replicate the old ones. Further, while status, religion, ethnic affiliation, the anti-discrimination law foresees an profession, family status, health expansion of the PDO’s authority, it condition, disability, expression, does not ensure relevant financial political or other beliefs, sexual support for it. An explanatory note orientation, gender identity, and “other accompanying the bill says that the grounds.” anti-discrimination legislation will not The law triggered enormous criticism incur any increase of state budget from different groups of society and expenses necessary to recruit additional was preceded by heated debates in staff in line with the PDO’s new parliament. responsibilities. The legal advocacy and watchdog Another, more powerful, group which organizations insist that the anti- has severely attacked the bill is the discrimination law is a watered down Orthodox Church and its radical version of the original document followers. According to the Georgian drafted by the Ministry of Justice, with Orthodox Church’s statement, released the active engagement of a broad range on April 28, the anti-discrimination bill of civil society groups and that it legalizes a “deadly sin” by including provides less efficient mechanisms, as “sexual orientation” and “gender well as financial penalties for identity” in the list of prohibited discrimination cases, than the initial grounds of discrimination. The EU one. Whereas the original version represents a conglomerate of different envisaged setting up a new institution – nations and religions claiming to an inspector for the protection of recognize and respect the culture and traditions of various people and ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 18! expresses its readiness to take into now not be considered as consideration Georgian values as well, discrimination against a person. The but this bill overtly contradicts these human rights groups fear that the principles, the statement reads. inclusion of terms such as “public Those against the bill also argue that it order” and “morale” risks encouraging allows sexual minorities to be employed discriminative interpretations of the even in the preschool education sector, law. The special post of an inspector in which is alarming as it could have charge of monitoring the negative implications for children’s implementation of the anti- mental development. Some radical discrimination legislation, as well as priests even suggested that the visa- financial penalties, have also been liberalization should be categorically removed from the draft. rejected “rather than making such On March 28, as the government inclinations as homosexuality a legal adopted the bill and sent it to the norm.” parliament for approval, PM Irakli Commenting on the bill, Speaker of Gharibashvili appealed to the state Parliament Davit Usupashvili said it is constitutional commission, currently a question of whether Georgia will drafting constitutional amendments, to continue its European path, recognizing reformulate the definition of marriage that “we should not chase people with in the constitution as a “union of man sticks, we should not fire people from and woman.” He claimed that such an jobs if we do not share their opinions explicit definition will eschew wrong and their way of life, or else we should perceptions and interpretations of the stay in Russia, where it is possible to planned anti-discrimination law. For expel people whom you dislike from a most Georgian lawyers, the PM’s city.” statement does not make sense because Georgia’s constitution says that Despite the strong support provided by “marriage shall be based upon the the liberal wing of politicians, heavy equality of rights and free will of pressure from the clergy forced the spouses.” Further, Georgia’s civil code lawmakers to make significant defines marriage as a “voluntary union modifications to the bill. of man and woman,” meaning that Initially, some lawmakers including the same-sex marriage is already banned in Vice-Speaker of Parliament, GD MP Georgia. Manana Kobakhidze, insisted that the The government seemingly seeks to entire list of prohibited grounds of accommodate the clergy’s demands discrimination should be removed, as while simultaneously maintaining the was suggested by spiritual leaders. trust of the pro-European electorate. While this initiative was not met by the parliament, a note of “protection of public order and morale” was added to the draft law. According to the law, actions committed for this purpose will ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 19!

NEW GOVERNMENT FORMED IN ARMENIA Haroutiun Khachatrian

In April-May, 2014, a new government includes posts such as city mayor and was formed in Armenia and about half governor, and he was a minister of of the former ministers lost their posts. territorial governance and deputy PM However, the principal targets of the in a previous government. new government, headed by the new Although nothing was formally Prime Minister , changed as Sargsyan, a vice-president seem identical to those of its of the ruling Republican Party, was predecessor. The ruling Republican replaced by another vice-president, Party of Armenia declared its ambition Abrahamyan, the events will have to remain the leading political force at political implications. Most least until 2025. prominently, the On April 3, 2014, Tigran Sargsyan, the (Country of Law) party, which has 12th Prime Minister of post-Soviet partnered with the Republican Party Armenia, resigned after six years in during the last six years, decided to office. According to the official leave the government. The official statement, he resigned due to personal reason was that the candidacy of the reasons but several observers believe party’s leader, Artur Baghdasaryan, was that the true reason was the decision of not even considered when choosing the the Armenian Constitutional Court, new PM. Baghdasaryan who, in his according to which many articles of the own words, is a good friend of Law on cumulative pension system President Sargsyan, resigned as presented by Sargsyan’s government Secretary of Armenia’s National contradict Armenia’s Constitution. Security Council on April 25 and said Meanwhile, President he would likely take up a post as Board is greatly interested in introducing this Chairman of the Collective Security system and the Court’s decision was Treaty Organization Academy. made public one day before the PM’s All three ministers belonging to resignation. Orinats Yerkir, including the ministers On April 13, Abrahamyan, the 56 year- of Agriculture, Sergo Karapetian, old Chairman of the National Emergency Situations, Armen Assembly and a member of the Yeritsyan, and Urban Development, Republican Party, was appointed the Samvel Tadevosyan, preferred to new PM by a presidential decree. remain in the new government and Whereas the previous PM is a well- were immediately excluded from the educated economist – Sargsyan was the party. Whereas the former two became chairman of Armenia’s Central Bank members of Abrahamyan’s for ten years – Abrahamyan is a government, Tadevosyan subsequently political leader. His previous carrier had to leave his ministerial seat. ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 20!

Due to its prevalence in the National May 3. Ten out of eighteen ministers Assembly, the Republican Party was working in former PM Sargsyan’s indifferent to the loss of its partner. It cabinet retained their posts, including has formed the entire government of its Defense Minister Seiran Ohanyan and own members or of non-partisans. Minister of Foreign Affairs Edward Observers have expressed various Nalbandyan. New ministers appeared opinions on why Orinats Yerkir in the ministries of finance, economy, decided to go into opposition, yet it was healthcare and some others. The most probably a strategic move ahead of the unexpected appointment was that of general elections in 2017. Gagik Khachatryan, the former head of Another political event occurring in the State Revenue Committee, to parallel with the formation of a new Minister of Finance. He thereby government was President Sargsyan’s becomes the fifth person on that post statement that he will not seek a third since 2008, and his former Committee presidency, as he was certain that no has been included into the ministry. person can lead Armenia more than Armen Muradyan, the head of a private twice. In his April 10 statement, hospital, became the Minister of Sargsyan also said, “I am the leader of Healthcare to replace Derenik the largest political force of the Dumanyan, a recently appointed friend country, the Republican Party and it of President Sargsyan. will continue … playing an important As indicated by President Sargsyan, the role … in the country”. In addition, the priorities of the new government Republican Party spokesman Eduard include efforts to join the Customs Sharmazanov made a comment on Union, the introduction of a April 30, indicating that although compulsory accumulative pension Sargsyan will no longer run for a top system, to continue educational office, he will remain highly influential reforms, and to improve the tax and in Armenian politics since he is the customs duty systems, among others. leader of the strongest political party. The new PM Abrahamyan said he The Republican Party expects this would work to complete the situation to continue at least until 2025. implementation of the cumulative This is not unlikely, given the pension system, which the former weakness of other parties. cabinet under PM Sargsyan failed to do The Republican Party suggested the – another indication of the urgency that head and spokesman of its President Sargsyan attaches to this parliamentary faction, Galust reform. Sahakyan, to replace Abrahamyan as chairman of the National Assembly. Sahakyan, 66, will soon occupy this post. In accordance with the legislation, the formation of a new government under Abrahamyan was completed by ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 21!

ADDRESSING TORTURE IN KYRGYZSTAN Ebi Spahiu

With a growing rhetoric of militant A recent event organized by the Tian Islamism in Kyrgyzstan and increasing Shan Policy Center at the American records of human rights abuses against University on torture prevention vulnerable groups, the pervasive use of mechanisms exposed some of the torture remains one of the most largest legal gaps and challenges the pressing issues in Kyrgyzstan’s judicial country faces on the issue of torture. system. Being the only democracy in The event was supported by the Open Central Asia, and having gone through Society Justice Initiative, the Coalition constitutional changes since the new against Torture and the United Nations government took over after the 2010 Office of the High Commissioner for revolution, the country’s judiciary has Human Rights based in Bishkek, and yet to effectively address issues of brought together representatives from torture that frequently affect targeted civil society, the office of the general minorities and vulnerable groups. Very prosecutor, and members of parliament often the use of torture is justified by to address the realities of hundreds of law enforcement to combat increasing torture cases that mostly go threats of violent extremism. However, unpunished. “The system encourages apart from being a political approach to law enforcement officers to use torture. fight threats of terrorism or unjustly The assessment is based on the target political dissent, torture also quantity of criminal cases closed, which occurs due to a deeply flawed judicial encourages the use of torture. If police system and law enforcement officers do not fulfill this quota, they’ll investigative mechanisms currently be punished. It is the norm for operating in Kyrgyzstan. confessions to be obtained through Even though the prevalence of torture torture because police are not trained to remains a regional human rights issue conduct investigations,” says due to the repressive regimes in most Alexandra Cherkasenko, Associate Central Asian countries, Kyrgyzstan is Legal Officer at the Open Society the only democracy in the region Justice Initiative in Bishkek, which although its systematic use of torture provides legal support to torture strongly resembles that of its victims and promotes legal reform oppressive neighbors. However, despite based on international standards on the climate of impunity for law torture prevention throughout Central enforcement officers and highly flawed Asia. judicial system, Kyrgyzstan is the only Kyrgyzstan is a signatory state of the country in the region that is taking ICCPR (International Convention of measures to address this problem. Civil and Political Rights) as well as the CAT (Convention against ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 22!

Torture). Despite the international Following the 2010 ethnic conflict in the legal platforms available and southern provinces of Osh and recommendations for the development Jalalabad, inhabited by predominantly of mechanisms to prevent of torture, ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbek communities, the number of charges among law the country still faces the challenges of enforcement perpetrators remains very a corrupt and skewed judicial system low. For the first time this year, two whose investigations have been marred police officers based in the southern by arbitrary arrests and torture. The province of Jalalabad were brought to court proceedings and investigations justice and received sentences of up to into the killings of over 400 people 11 years in prison for having tortured during the conflict have failed to minors. “The pressure from civil resolve the pains of a transitioning society is quite strong, but there is still state. Widespread torture and targeting a long way to go,” says Cherkasenko. of ethnic minorities among other Apart from international agreements groups remains an obstacle to the on the prevention of torture, recent highly politicized judicial processes. “In discussions among scholars and civil Kyrgyzstan investigations are society representatives have revolved compromised because the investigative around the role of regional economic body is still the Ministry of Internal and political alliances, such as the Affairs with prosecutorial supervision. Shanghai Cooperation Organization The complaints are usually made (SCO) between China and Central against operative officers who are also Asian states, in maintaining a prevalent under the Ministry. These complaints climate of torture justified by the war are made because police officers are on terror. In January 2014, a group of 11 torturing in the context of an ethnic Uyghur men were killed on the investigation so there is inherent border between China and Kyrgyzstan conflict for both the prosecutors and on allegations of extremist activities. the Ministry,” says Sarah King, According to a statement of the border Human Rights Program Manager at the authorities reported by the Associated Tian Shan Policy Center in Bishkek. Press, the 11 men appeared to belong “to an organization of Uyghur separatists.” Human rights organizations, however, disputed the claim due to insufficient investigations and continuously raise their concerns over the SCO agreements and “murky” definitions of terrorism to justify repression of political dissent in the name of the war on terror, also grouped under the organization’s definition of “three evils”: separatism, extremism and terrorism. ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 23!

TURKMENISTAN’S PRESIDENT VISITS TAJIKISTAN Oleg Salimov

Turkmenistan’s President Gurbanguly development in Afghanistan as a Berdimuhammedov visited Tajikistan prerequisite for mitigating regional on May 5-6 2014. During his visit, threats including terrorism and Berdimuhammedov met with trafficking in drugs and human beings. Tajikistan’s president Emomali In a separate statement, Rakhmon Rakhmon and the speaker of the lower accentuated the closeness of both chamber of Tajikistan’s parliament countries’ interests in a number of Shukurjon Shukurov. The undertakings. At the same time, the transportation and energy sectors, and evolving collaboration between cooperation in the socioeconomic Tajikistan and Turkmenistan is best sphere dominated the bilateral dialogue. described as intermediate cooperation The visit of Turkmenistan’s president with the final objective of reaching to Tajikistan was preceded by a their principal economic partners – meeting of the Turkmen-Tajik Russia for Tajikistan and China for intergovernmental committee on trade- Turkmenistan. Although the countries economic and scientific-technological indicate their regional dependency and cooperation in Ashgabat and increased trade turnover, which reached Tajikistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs US$ 119 million in 2013, they present Sirojiddin Aslov’s visit to insignificant political and economic Turkmenistan’s capital in April 2014. value for each other. Both events were used to formulate and The divergence of the countries’ coordinate the points of interest to be interests can be seen in their distinct discussed during the upcoming interpretations of the visit’s purpose. presidential visit. According to the official press release The visit resulted in nine signed of Tajikistan’s presidential agreements out of a prospective ten, as administration, the central theme and reported by Tajikistan’s presidential objective of the visit revolved around administration. They included the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- intergovernmental acts on cooperation Tajikistan railroad. At the same time, in transportation, economics, tourism, Turkmenistan identified the expansion culture, education, legislature, and of its energy export capabilities as a foreign affairs. In a joint statement, substantial part of the dialogue. For both presidents emphasized the Tajikistan, the railroad through importance of expanding partnership in Turkmenistan is a means for reaching transportation, energy, industry, trade, Caspian seaways and reduced-tariff and agriculture. As a separate item, the Russian oil reserves as a preference in presidents mentioned socioeconomic return for stationing a Russian military ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!21!May!2014! 24! base in the country. For Turkmenistan, Turkmenistan, and was seen as Tajikistan’s territory is a shortcut for excluding Turkmenistan from the delivering its natural gas to China via a decision-making process and as fourth pipeline and for diversifying its damaging to the three-sided project. exports. Besides the absence of a compromise In September 2013, Turkmenistan and version of the Tajik part of the railroad, China reached agreement on a fourth the lack of funding further reduces the natural gas pipeline which can chances of accomplishing the project as potentially go through Tajikistan’s planned. territory. According to China Regardless of whether the railroad Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), objective is achieved, Tajikistan’s Turkmenistan consented in a contract cooperation with Turkmenistan signed in 2007 to a yearly export of 30 presents viable means for resolving its billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural energy crisis. The transit of Turkmen gas to China in the next 30 years. In natural gas to China can result in a about 5 years, from 2009 to 2013, bargain or preferences for Tajikistan. Turkmenistan delivered only 69 bcm, The discussion between the two and thus lags behind in delivering presidents also included the possibility another 81 bcm to China. The pipeline of extending a Turkmen electric energy though Tajikistan can increase the line from Afghanistan to Tajikistan. In amount of exported natural gas while 2013, Turkmenistan produced over 18 reducing the price of delivery. billion kilowatts of electric energy, 2.6 Consequently, for Turkmenistan, billion of which were exported. which has already started the Currently, Turkmenistan exports construction of its part of the railroad, around 50 megawatt of electricity to questions regarding its energy export Afghanistan and plans to increase it by prevailed over other subjects in the up to 250 megawatt by the end of 2014, agenda of the presidential visit. according to official Turkmen media. For Tajikistan, the prospect of However, the possible financial finalizing the three-country railroad is constrains after the U.S. and NATO still murky. The project, which must be withdrawal can limit Afghanistan’s completed in 2015, was the object of a purchasing capacity. In such case, recent diplomatic mishap between Tajikistan’s market will appear highly Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. In a attractive for Turkmen electric energy statement on January 2014, Amonullo export. Khukumatullo, the head of Tajik Railroad, announced that an agreement had been reached between Tajikistan and Afghanistan on the final version of the Tajik part of the railroad. Khukumatullo’s announcement provoked immediate protests from