Oxfordshire Highways
Cogges Link Road Traffic Model Forecasting Report
B0834600/Doc/CLR/04 April 2008
Jacobs Engineering UK Ltd, Jacobs House, 427 London Road, Reading, Berkshire, RG6 1BL UK Tel 0118 963 5000 Fax 0118 949 1054
Copyright Jacobs Engineering UK Ltd. All rights reserved
No part of this report may be copied or reproduced by any means without prior written permission from Jacobs Engineering UK Ltd. If you have received this report in error, please destroy all copies in your possession or control and notify Jacobs Engineering UK Ltd.
This report has been prepared for the exclusive use of the commissioning party and unless otherwise agreed in writing by Jacobs Engineering UK Ltd, no other party may use, make use of or rely on the contents of the report. If others choose to rely upon this report they do so entirely at their own risk. No liability is accepted by Jacobs Engineering UK Ltd for any use of this report, other than for the purposes for which it was originally prepared and provided.
Opinions and information provided in the report are on the basis of Jacobs Engineering UK Ltd using due skill, care and diligence in the preparation of the same and no explicit warranty is provided as to their accuracy. It should be noted and it is expressly stated that no independent verification of any of the documents or information supplied to Jacobs Engineering UK Ltd has been made.
Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Document No : B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04
Revision No : 01
Date : April 2008
Prepared by : Rachel Rombough
Checked by : Dave Mills
Approved by : Jon Mullins
NB This document supersedes Doc No. 0009432/ES/2/2
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 1 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Non Technical Summary
This report covers the processes involved in creating reliable traffic flow forecasts for the two major schemes being assessed for the Witney Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). These schemes were chosen for assessment following a screening of alternatives exercise in which the best performing options were taken forward to this stage.
The forecast traffic models for the Cogges Link Road (CLR) and Shores Green Slip Roads (SGSR) schemes cover the years 2011 and 2026. They were created using the fully validated base year (2005) model of Witney and the latest planning data available. An additional 2026 model shows the impact of completing the West End Link between Mill Street and West End after the CLR or SGSR scheme is in place.
The traffic screening process is described in this report, along with a more detailed appraisal of the traffic impacts of the two major schemes. As the centre of Witney is protected by the designation of a Conservation Area and an Air Quality Management Area, the impact on these was assessed in the screening of alternatives.
Central to the forecast modelling has been the addition of a series of complementary measures which, when implemented, will encourage traffic to use the new scheme whilst easing pressure on the more sensitive areas of the town such as Bridge Street. Additional measures beyond those modelled are also proposed in the supporting document ‘Witney Complementary Measures Study Report’.
Forecast traffic flows on individual town centre links have been provided, along with a series of graphs comparing both schemes’ overall traffic impact on the town. This detailed level of analysis has provided a clear indication of how either scheme would best serve the town.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 2 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Contents
Page 1 Introduction 4 2 Modelling Methodology 6 3 Traffic Forecasts for 2011 and 2026 16 4 Conclusions 52
Figures / Tables Figure 2.1 Study Area 9 Figure 2.2 Zone Plan (Wider Area) 10 Figure 2.3 Zone Plan (Town) 11 Table 2.1 Zone Description List 12 Table 2.2 2011 Screening – change in trips passing though the Air 14 Quality Management Area and Conservation Area Figures 3.1 – 2011 Cost and Benefit Flow Graphs 21 3.7 Figures 3.8 – 2026 Cost and Benefit Flow Graphs 28 3.14 Figures 3.15 2026 with WEL Cost and Benefit Flow Graphs 35 – 3.21 Tables 3.1 – Traffic Flow Forecasts 2011 and 2026 42 3.9 Table 3.10 Comparison of DM, CLR and SGSR 2011 impacts on AQMA 51 and CA with no complementary measures added
Appendices A Witney 2011and 2026 Forecasting Methodology 54 B Assessment of Induced Traffic using DIADEM 67
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 3 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
1 Introduction
1.1.1 Jacobs was commissioned by Oxfordshire Highways to update the existing SATURN traffic model for Witney following issues raised in the West Oxfordshire Local Plan Inquiry.
1.1.2 The model is being used as part of a revised Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) into various schemes aimed at tackling congestion in the centre of Witney, most notably in the Bridge Street and High Street areas.
1.1.3 This Forecasting Report follows the revised Local Model Validation Report (LMVR) which details the process of updating the model to a new base year of 2005. The forecast models were initially run for high and low growth scenarios in a scheme opening year of 2011 and a design year of 2026. Final forecasts included the addition of complementary measures to each scheme, for which only high growth (worst case scenario) was assessed.
1.1.4 Local planning data from West Oxfordshire District Council (WODC) was used to update the growth assumptions around the town. These formed part of the overall traffic increases derived from TEMPRO.
1.1.5 The traffic forecasting comprised two stages. Initially, a screening of options identified the best performing schemes in both traffic and environmental terms in a single growth scenario. A more thorough forecasting analysis of these schemes then followed.
1.1.6 The fully validated 2005 AM and PM peak hour models for Witney were taken forward as a base for creating the forecast models. These examined combinations of three major schemes for Witney, as well as a Do Minimum scenario. The three schemes are:
• Cogges Link Road (CLR) – this 40mph single carriageway road runs from the Oxford Hill / Jubilee Way traffic signals to the east of Witney town centre, around the east and south of the Cogges Estate, across the River Windrush, and into the Sainsbury’s roundabout on Witan Way. It enables traffic from the north and east of Witney to access the town centre without adding to the existing bottleneck in Bridge Street. • Shores Green Slip Roads (SGSR) – this option involves upgrading the existing junction between the B4022 Oxford Hill and the A40 bypass to the east of Witney. Currently, this only allows westbound A40 traffic to exit towards Witney, and Oxford Hill traffic to join the eastbound A40. The proposed improvement would allow all movements with a fully grade- separated junction. It would provide an alternative route for through movements, and would also enable some traffic to travel in and out of Witney via the A415 instead of Bridge Street.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 4 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
• West End Link (WEL) Stage 2 – this option provides an alternative river crossing in the town centre. It is a single carriageway link running from the Mill Street / Woodford Way junction to the Hailey Road / West End roundabout. Both junctions would be signalised, and the new road would allow traffic to move to and from the north west of Witney without using Bridge Street. The bridge is proposed to complement Woodford Way, which was opened in December 2005 and forms Stage 1 of the WEL. 1.1.7 Previous models have included a river crossing to the south-east of Bridge Street, known as the Newland Link. This option has never been shown to operate satisfactorily in transport terms, and is no longer under consideration as its route is now occupied by the Bridge Street Mills development. In all forecasts, comparison has been made with the Do Minimum scenario in which none of the major schemes described above are built.
1.1.8 The screening forecasts contained in this report represent 2011 reference case growth, AM and PM peak hour traffic flows. This was derived from the TEMPRO 4.3.2 policy-based south-east dataset 1.5, which was the latest version available at the time. Schemes were compared by examining the traffic impact in two defined cordons which are described in detail in Section 2.
1.1.9 For the final forecasts of the best performing options (in both traffic and environmental terms), various complementary measures were added to encourage traffic to use the new scheme whilst discouraging movements through the most sensitive areas of Witney. This was done for both build and design years. In addition, peak hour, 12 hour and 18 hour flows on key town centre links are compared with their base year values.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 5 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
2 Modelling Methodology
2.1 Background
2.1.1 The study area is illustrated in Figure 2.1 and extends beyond Witney to include surrounding towns and villages such as Carterton, Ducklington and Minster Lovell. The main detail in the traffic model is contained within Witney itself (simulation area) with the peripheral areas modelled as buffer network. This is a standard traffic modelling procedure, as the area within the roadside interview cordon (RSI) (see LMVR) requires junctions to be represented in detail.
2.1.2 Following the validation of the 2005 AM and PM peak models, it was agreed to screen all individual schemes, along with every combination of them and a Do Minimum (DM) scenario, each for 2011. This was done to ensure every scheme combination was considered.
2.1.3 The best performing schemes (in both traffic and environmental terms) were then tested for the build year (2011) and the design year (2026). The main specific development added between these years is the North Curbridge housing and employment area and associated local centre. An intersection between Downs Road and the A40 to the south-west of Witney was added to the network, which would support existing and future development.
2.1.4 Forecast traffic is presented as demand flows as these would be required at a detailed design stage.
2.2 Matrices
2.2.1 The updated Witney traffic model contains 76 zones as illustrated in Figures 2.2 and 2.3. There were 73 in the previous version, but three zones were disaggregated in the base model to help improve validation. A full descriptive list of the 76 zones is shown in Table 2.1. The zone descriptions are taken from the OCC 1991 Gazetteer of Witney, which covered zones 1-59. Most road names are listed, however where a zone contains numerous roads (e.g. in a housing estate), only the main road names are listed.
2.2.2 The Technical Note “Witney 2011and 2026 Forecasting Methodology” is in Appendix A to this report. It describes in detail the process undertaken to build forecast matrices from the 2005 base using TEMPRO for overall growth. In addition, it describes the calculation of specific development trips that form part of this growth.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 6 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
2.3 Screening of Options
2.3.1 It was agreed to assess all scheme combinations for 2011 at the screening stage. The schemes assessed therefore were:
• DM; • CLR; • SGSR; • WEL; • CLR+SGSR; • CLR+WEL; • WEL+SGSR; • CLR+WEL+SGSR.
2.3.2 Networks representing these options were built and 2011 AM and PM Peak central growth matrices were assigned. These were built from the 2005 bases, with committed or known developments added before being factored up to a ceiling level of growth calculated using TEMPRO 4.3.2. It was agreed that a central (reference case) growth level was most appropriate for this procedure.
2.3.3 Apart from the schemes themselves, the main network change between the 2005 and 2011 models was the upgrading of the Mill Street / High Street roundabout to a signal-controlled junction. This change was not added however, in the Do Minimum scenario.
2.3.4 Schemes were assessed in the screening process by examining the overall changes in traffic movements between the Do Minimum and Do Something scenarios through two cordons within the town. These cordons were:
• Conservation Area (CA) – this area is illustrated in the WODC Local Plan. Essentially it covers the historic central part of Witney including Woodgreen, Oxford Hill, West End, Bridge Street, High Street, Welch Way (east), Corn Street (east), Witan Way (north), Langdale Gate and Station Lane (east). The WODC Local Plan 2011 (par 9.32) lists amongst its transport objectives for Witney a need to “reduce the adverse impact of motorised traffic within the town as a whole, especially the most sensitive parts including the Conservation Area”. • Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) – this lies within the CA and covers the most congested part of the town around Bridge Street, Mill Street, northern High Street and Staple Hall. Reducing traffic movements into and out of this area is essential to improve air quality here. 2.3.5 Following each assignment, the signal nodes were optimised to balance any junction arms operating over capacity. The assignments were then re-run to produce the final screening results.
2.4 Screening Results
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 7 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
2.4.1 Table 2.2 summarises how each scheme performed across the two cordons when compared with the Do Minimum scenario. It also shows the combined results that were used to score each scheme.
2.4.2 The percentage change in trips passing through the CA and AQMA cordons for each scheme is shown, along with an overall ranking. The scores reflect different levels of change in traffic flows, and were combined with the environmental assessments for each scheme.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 8 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 2.1 Study Area
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 9 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 2.2 Zone Plan (Wider Area)
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 10 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 2.3 Zone Plan (Town)
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 11 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Table 2.1 Witney Model Zones
1 Bridge Street, Staple Hall 2 High Street 3 Witan Way (north), Woolgate Centre 4 Langdale Gate, Langdale Hall, Market Square, St Mary’s Mead 5 Corn Street (northeast), Market Square, Marlborough Lane 6 Holloway Road Tech College, Welch Way (east) 7 Welch Way Library Car Park 8 Gloucester Place, Mill Street (east), Puck Lane, Riverside Gardens 9 Swinbrook Court, Witan Way (south) 10 Church Green, Corn Street (southeast), Eagle Ind. Est., Farm Mill Lane, Station Lane (north) Corn Street (central), Eagle Ind. Est., The Crofts, Highworth Place, Lowell Place, Orchard 11 Way, Saxon Way, Spring Close, Swingburn Place, The Crofts, Weavers Close 12 Corn Street (west), Orkney Place, Queen Emma’s Dyke, Welch Way (west) 13 Ashcombe Close, Corn Street (north central), Holloway Road, Welch Way (central) 14 Burford Road (southeast), Dark Lane, Millfield, Mill Street (southwest), Moor Avenue (east) 15 Burford Road (northeast), Mill Street (northwest) 16 Burford Road (north central), Springfield Oval, Springfield Park Burford Road (south central), Dene Rise, Moor Avenue (west), Moorland Close, Moorland 17 Road 18 Burford Road (south central), Davenport Road, Park Road, Tower Hill (north) 19 Station Lane (east) 20 Station Lane, (north central), The Leys 21 Station Lane Ind. Est., Station Lane (south), Witney Trading Estate 22 Ducklington Lane (southeast) Abbey Road, Blenheim Drive, Burwell Drive, Burwell Meadow, Colwell Drive, Curbridge 23 Road (south central), Holford Road, Mountfield Road, Wilmot Close 24 Church View Road, Curbridge Road (southeast), Fairfield Drive, French Close, Southlawn Apley Way, Burford Road (southwest), Cornfield Close, Curbridge Road (northeast), Elm Close, Fettiplace Road, Lancut Road, Smith’s Housing Estate, Vale Road, Wenman Road, 25 Windrush Close, Windrush Valley Road, Wychwood Close 26 Thorney Leys Ind. Est. 27 Ducklington Lane (south) 28 Thorney Leys Housing Estate Cotswold Meadow, Deer Park Road (southeast), Eddington Road, Idbury Close, Raleigh 29 Crescent, Rissington Drive, Westcote Close 30 Deer Park Road (northeast), Valence Crescent 31 Curbridge Road (north of A40), Deer Park Road (southwest) Bromag Ind. Est., Burford Road (west), Cotswold Business Centre, Downs Road (east), 32 Downs Road Ind. Est., Range Road, Smith’s Ind. Estate 33 Burford Road (northeast & central) 34 Crawley Road (east), Milking Lane, Quarry Road, Taphouse Avenue, Westfield Road 35 Narrow Hill, West End Bakers Piece, Chestnut Close, Farmers Close, New Yatt Road (south), Vanner Road, 36 Woodgreen (west) New Yatt Road (southeast), The Crescent, Woodgreen (east), Woodlands Road, Woodstock 37 Road (west) 38 Early Road, New Yatt Road (northeast), Tarrant Avenue, Viner Close Bramble Bank, Campion Way, Cedar Drive, Harvest Way (north), Jubilee Way (west), 39 Lavender View, Oakmead, Pine Rise, Woodstock Road (east) Church Lane, Kingsfield Crescent, Newland, Newland Mill, Oxford Hill (west), Oxford Road 40 (west), Pens Close, The Willows 41 Hollis Close, Judds Close, Manor Road, Wadards Meadow, Blakes Avenue, Eton Close, Jubilee Way (south), Oxford Hill, Oxford Road (east), Stanton 42 Harcourt Road 43 Downhill Lane, New Yatt Road (northwest) 44 Crawley Road (west), Delly End, Hailey, Newmill Lane, Poffley End 45 New Yatt, North Leigh
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 12 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
46 Eynsham Park & Hall 47 High Cogges, South Leigh 48 Ducklington 49 Curbridge 50 Downs Road (west), Minster Lovell 51 Crawley, Crawley Mill Ind. Park, Whiteoak Green 52 Charlbury, Cornbury & Wychwood, Fawler, Finstock, Ramsden, Stonesfield 53 Church Hanborough Combe, Freeland, Hanborough, Long Hanborough 54 Barnard Gate, Eynsham, Yarnton Aston Bampton & Shifford, Cokethorpe School, Hardwick with Yelford, Northmoor, 55 Standlake, Sutton Green 56 Bampton, Black Bourton, Lew 57 Brize Norton, Carterton 58 Burford, Fulbrook, Shilton, Swinbrook & Widford, Taynton Ascott under Wychwood. Asthall, Bruern, Chilston, Fifield, Leafield, Lyneham, Milton Under 59 Wychwood, Shipton Under Wychwood 60 Chipping Norton, Stow on the Wold, The North West 61 A4095 North, Kidlington, The North East, Woodstock 62 A40 East, Cassington 63 A415 South, Abingdon, The South East 64 A361 south, A417 west, Lechlade, The South West 65 A40 West, Westwell 66 Gordon Way, Kingfisher Drive, Mallard Drive, Henry Box Close 67 Des Roches Square 68 Range Road (east), Windrush Ind. Park 69 North Curbridge Housing Birch Grove, Harvest Way (south), Jubilee Way (east), Larkspur Grove, Lime Walk, Cherry 70 Tree Way, 71 Hailey Road (east central), New Yatt Road (west central), 72 Oxford Hill (east) 73 New Yatt Road 74 Oxford Hill (west), Church Lane, Kingsfield Crescent, Compton Way 75 Hailey Road, Eastfield Road, Schofield Avenue, Hoyle Close 76 Tower Hill (south), Beech Road, Union Way
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 13 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Table 2.2 2011 Screening – AM and PM peak trips passing though the Air Quality Management Area and Conservation Area
AQMA Scoring TOTAL AM & PM PEAK DM SGSR WEL CLR SGSRWEL CLRWEL CLRSGSR CLRSGSRWEL Air Quality Management Area 13785 12581 12151 11733 11609 11164 11544 10814 Traffic Increase -1 Change from Do Min -1204 -1634 -2052 -2176 -2621 -2241 -2971 Reduction to 10% 1 % Change -8.7% -11.9% -14.9% -15.8% -19.0% -16.3% -21.6% Reduction to 20% 2 RANK 7 6 5 4 2 3 1 Reduction over 20% 3 SCORE 1 2 2 2 2 2 3
TOTAL AM & PM PEAK DM SGSR WEL CLR SGSRWEL CLRWEL CLRSGSR CLRSGSRWEL Conservation Area Scoring Conservation Area Traffic Increase Cordon 14681 14870 24873 13489 21594 18809 13692 18510 10%+ -3 Traffic Increase 5- Change from Do Min 188 10191 -1193 6913 4128 -990 3828 10% -2 Traffic Increase 0- % Change 1.3% 69.4% -8.1% 47.1% 28.1% -6.7% 26.1% 5% -1 RANK 3 7 1 6 5 2 4 Reduction to 5% 1 SCORE -1 -3 2 -3 -3 2 -3 Reduction 5-10% 2 Reduction over 10% 3
TOTAL AM & PM PEAK DM SGSR WEL CLR SGSRWEL CLRWEL CLRSGSR CLRSGSRWEL All Flows Scoring Sum of AQMA & Conservation All flows Analysed 28466 27451 37024 25222 33203 29973 25236 29324 Area Scores Change from Do Min -1016 8557 -3245 4737 1507 -3231 857 % Change -3.6% 30.1% -11.4% 16.6% 5.3% -11.3% 3.0% RANK 3 7 1 6 5 2 4 SCORE 0 -1 4 -1 -1 4 0
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 14 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
2.4.3 All options that included the West End Link showed an overall growth in traffic movements through the CA, resulting in an increase in total flows assessed. This is partly due to the way the CA boundary is drawn, with some traffic entering, leaving and then re-entering the cordon. Rather than basing scores on the overall flows however, the AQMA and CA analyses were scored separately to ensure any benefits emerging from one cordon were not cancelled out by dis- benefits from the other.
2.4.4 All schemes and combinations reduced traffic through the AQMA. Of the stand- alone options, the CLR produced the best reduction (14.9%). The combined option of all three schemes gave the best AQMA reduction (21.6%), whilst the best two-scheme option was CLR+ WEL (19.0%).
2.4.5 Only the CLR and CLR+SGSR options resulted in a reduction in through traffic in the CA, with the CLR performing best (8.1% reduction). Again, the WEL option performed worst in the CA analysis, with an increase of 69.4% in through movements.
2.4.6 Combining the results of the two cordon analyses, the CLR option gave the greatest improvement over the Do Minimum scenario (11.4% reduction), with the CLR/SGSR combination performing next best (11.3%) and WEL returning the poorest level of change (30.1% increase in through movements across the two cordons).
2.5 Screening Conclusions
2.5.1 Whilst this analysis examined eight combinations of the three schemes under consideration, it was ultimately intended to identify the best-performing individual schemes. The combined analyses served to identify the potential benefits of adding major schemes at a later date, and also ensured all options were given due consideration.
2.5.2 In traffic terms, only the CLR and SGSR individual options showed an overall reduction in through trips in the two sensitive areas tested in the town. This was supported by the fact that the only combined option that showed a reduction was the CLR / SGSR pairing.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 15 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
3 Traffic Forecasts for 2011 and 2026
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 Following the screening of options in both traffic and environmental terms, the Do Minimum scenario was assessed against the two best performing individual schemes to enable a % change to be identified in the cordon and screenline analysis.
3.1.2 Although the WEL was not one of the two best performing schemes in the screening, it remains an aspired improvement that may be in place following completion of the CLR or SGSR. Furthermore, the high cost flows associated with WEL traffic movements through the CA will be offset by some of the benefit flows examined in the forecasting (see 3.3.1 below). For these reasons, the WEL was included in the 2026 analysis as an additional improvement. Forecasts are presented in Tables 3.1 – 3.9 along with traffic flows from the 2005 base, modelled speeds and a % HGV calculation based on classified counts on or near each link. In total therefore, three forecast scenarios were assessed for 2011 high growth in the AM and PM peaks, with five options being tested for 2026:
• DM; • CLR; • SGSR; • CLR + WEL (2026 only); • SGSR + WEL (2026 only). 3.1.3 A series of complementary measures were added to the high growth models to identify the impact of other small schemes that together discourage traffic from sensitive locations such as Bridge Street and encourage drivers to use the new scheme. These measures are discussed in greater detail in the supporting document “Complementary Measures Study Report” (CMSR). The traffic forecasts presented here are therefore taken from the high growth scenario only, with complementary measures added to the major schemes.
3.1.4 Additional complementary measures which cannot be effectively represented in a SATURN traffic model are discussed in the CMSR. These are measures such as enhanced signing, improved parking regulations and better facilities for pedestrians. It is intended that any or all of these will be implemented following the opening of the chosen major scheme to improve traffic flows further around the town.
3.1.5 The generation of induced traffic should be considered in any forecasting procedure of this nature. The Witney traffic model was tested for this and it was found to be a negligible issue. This is typical of schemes such as CLR or SGSR in a rural town like Witney. Full details of this procedure are included in Appendix B.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 16 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
3.2 Forecast Model Development
3.2.1 The only significant non-scheme network change was the addition of an intersection between Downs Road and the A40 to the south-west of the study area in the 2026 models. This junction is proposed to support existing and future development in the Downs Road and Deer Park Road area. No particular junction format has yet been determined for this intersection and it is deemed very unlikely that it could be in place by 2011. Therefore it was agreed that the intersection would be modelled as an at-grade roundabout in 2026 only, thus enabling all traffic movements to take place here.
3.2.2 Access to the North Curbridge development was added from two sides, one on Downs Road and another on Curbridge Road, just south of the Deer Park Road roundabout. This did not form a through route for non-development traffic however.
3.2.3 Following the screening of alternatives, an update of the DfT’s TEMPRO program was released. The new south-east dataset (version 5.2) exhibited considerably lower levels of growth for Witney and Oxfordshire than that used to create the screening matrices. This was due mostly to boundary changes, and the reliance on policy-based data. The DfT advised that new forecasts should be undertaken using the latest TEMPRO growth rates, even though these had not been available at the screening stage.
3.2.4 As the TEMPRO update had occurred between the screening and forecasting procedures, a sensitivity test was undertaken in which the new lower growth rate was used to create alternative screening matrices. Assigning these produced the same scheme rankings, therefore it was considered appropriate to follow the DfT advice and apply the new lower rates of growth for the forecasts.
3.2.5 The derivation of the development trips in the forecast matrices is described in the technical note “Witney 2011 and 2026 Forecasting Methodology” in Appendix A. Essentially, the development trips were added to the 2005 base year matrices, then other background trips were factored up to achieve the required 2011 matrix totals derived from TEMPRO.
3.3 Assessment
3.3.1 For the two major schemes, traffic movements through the CA and AQMA cordons were again assessed, along with an analysis of river crossing and town centre trips to provide further robustness to the results. This method identifies a series of “cost flows” and “benefit flows”. Cost flows are traffic movements in undesirable or sensitive areas. These include the existing river crossings in Bridge Street and Dry Lane, and designated protected areas such as the AQMA or CA. They also include town centre trips that continue to use the existing crossings.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 17 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
3.3.2 Conversely, benefit flows are those that use the major scheme in question (CLR or SGSR). Those that go to or from the town centre are counted as additional benefit flows. By subtracting the benefit flows from the cost flows, it enables the overall impact to be assessed and to identify how effective each complementary measure is. Figures 3.1 – 3.21 illustrate these impacts for both assessment years.
3.3.3 Demand traffic flows on key town centre links such as High Street, Witan Way, Bridge Street, Woodstock Road and West End are presented in Tables 3.1 – 3.9. All traffic forecast information presented is for a high growth scenario, with the following complementary measures included:
• Conversion of the Staple Hall roundabouts to a single traffic signal-controlled junction. This includes a 10 second inter-green period to allow traffic to pass through the junction safely. This delay also acts as a deterrent to traffic that could use the alternative major scheme. • Addition of traffic calming along Woodgreen and Newland. This is assumed to be in the form of bus-friendly cushions and would reduce average speeds down to around 24kph. They would be implemented on Woodgreen as far as Harvest Way, and on Newland as far as Church Lane. Additional measures of this nature are modelled to prevent A4095 traffic rat-running via New Yatt Road and Narrow Hill. • Upgrading of Ducklington Lane / Station Lane traffic signal junction with MOVA capability. In the CLR option, MOVA was also modelled at the Oxford Hill / Jubilee Way / CLR traffic signals. 3.3.4 Additional measures are proposed in the CMSR, and it is fully anticipated that these will be included in a programme of implementation alongside those included in this analysis.
3.4 2011 Forecasts
3.4.1 The addition of traffic signals at Staple Hall was by far the most effective measure in reducing the net impact of cost and benefit traffic movements, as illustrated in Figures 3.1 – 3.7. Both the CLR and SGSR options would more than halve traffic flows on Bridge Street, with CLR providing the greatest level of relief.
3.4.2 Comparison charts (Figures 3.1 – 3.7) show the impact of adding each complementary measure to the two major schemes in 2011 (High Growth). The Do Minimum forecast is excluded from these charts as no complementary measures would be added to this scenario as there is, by implication, no scheme to complement. Any measures added to the DM therefore would only result in negative impacts such as increased delays and displacement of traffic to inappropriate routes. For this reason, only the two major schemes are compared in Figures 3.1 – 3.7.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 18 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
3.4.3 A key observation from the 2005 base year models is that relatively few trips on Bridge Street are passing right through RSI cordon. In the AM Peak this figure is 23.9% and in the PM Peak it is just 19.5%. It is clear therefore that the vast majority of trips on Bridge Street are to or from zones inside the observed model cordon. The 2011 DM impacts on the CA and AQMA are therefore presented in Table 3.10 below alongside the equivalent CLR and SGSR impacts when no complementary measures are added. In this analysis, the DM scenario performs worst. As it can have no “benefit flows”, extending the analysis to include such calculations would only result in it performing even more poorly when compared with CLR or SGSR. The comparison in Table 3.10 therefore only examines the through movements in the CA and AQMA.
3.4.4 Tables 3.3 and 3.4 clearly illustrate that the level of traffic using the CLR in 2011 is almost double that using the SGSR slip-roads. What this demonstrates is that a substantial level of traffic in the SGSR scenario continues to use other, less appropriate routes, particularly to reach the town centre, as demonstrated in Figures 3.5 – 3.7.
3.4.5 Overall, when assessing the sum of cost and benefit trips in 2011, the CLR out performs SGSR by 22.5%.
3.5 2026 Forecasts
3.5.1 Forecasts for 2026 are presented in the same way as for 2011, but include additional scenarios where the WEL is added to the CLR and SGSR major schemes. Unlike in the 2011 screening, this scenario includes the complementary measures, therefore any comparison between the two sets of results including WEL should be avoided.
3.5.2 Comparison charts (Figures 3.8 – 3.14) show the impact of adding each complementary measure to the two major schemes in 2026 (High Growth). In addition, Figures 3.15 – 3.21 show the impact with the WEL added. As with the 2011 forecasts, the Do Minimum scenario is excluded from these charts as no complementary measures would be added.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 19 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
3.5.3 As in the 2011 analysis, the addition of the Staple Hall traffic signals is the single most effective complementary measure in reducing cost flows and increasing benefit flows. Figure 3.8 shows that this benefits the Shores Green option more than CLR, although the overall analysis shows that net traffic movements remain lower in the CLR scenario as each complementary measure is added. Although net cost / benefit flows will always be higher with no complementary measures, Figure 3.8 clearly shows that even before the Staple Hall signals are added, the CLR alternative performs significantly better than SGSR.
3.5.4 Figures 3.9 and 3.10 show that in 2026, there are more movements through the AQMA and CA in the CLR option, although this is offset by the huge difference in benefit flows. As a result, Figure 3.8 illustrates that overall; the CLR still out performs SGSR by 7.5%.
3.5.5 The addition of the West End Link by 2026, alongside the other complementary measures does result in an increase in CA trips (as happened in the 2011 screening), leading to an overall higher net level of cost / benefit trips. It does however provide considerable relief to the existing river crossings in Bridge Street and Dry Lane.
3.5.6 With WEL in place in 2026, CLR out performs SGSR by 24.2% overall.
3.6 Other Observations from Forecasts
3.6.1 There is some evidence of rat-running from both the 2011 and 2026 models that may require mitigating measures to be implemented in the future. Some SGSR traffic heading west on the A40 for the western industrial areas of the town avoids the Station Lane / Ducklington Lane junction by turning left onto the A415, then rat-running via an unclassified route past Coursehill Farm towards Curbridge Road. This happens even after the junction has been improved with MOVA, particularly in the AM peak. The problem is less apparent in 2026 as more traffic can access west Witney via the new Downs Road / A40 intersection, as well as via the WEL and Burford Road in the scenario where this link is added. The 2011 analysis did not include a Downs Road / A40 intersection as funding issues precluded it from being added to the road network when the modelling was undertaken.
3.6.2 Similarly, in the CLR scenario, traffic that would normally leave the town centre and head south along the A415 may instead divert via the CLR to turn left into Cogges Hill Road and Stanton Harcourt Road. This problem only exists in the PM peak. Again, this situation arises as traffic avoids the Station Lane / Ducklington Lane junction.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 20 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figures 3.1 – 3.7 2011 Cost Benefit Flow Graphs
Figure 3.1 - Net Change in traffic movements on "cost" links (Conservation Area, AQMA & existing river crossings) and "benefit" scheme links (CLR or SG) with each complementary measure added. 2011 High Growth AM & PM.
40000
35000
30000
25000
2011 CLR Total 20000 2011 SG Total
15000
10000
Net Traffic Demand (pcu movements) Net Traffic 5000
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 21 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.2 - Net Change in traffic movements in AQMA with each complementary measure added. 2011 High Growth AM & PM.
14000
12000
10000
8000 2011 CLR Total 2011 SG Total 6000
4000
Net Traffic Demand (pcu movements) 2000
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 22 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.3 - Net Change in traffic movements through Conservation Area with each complementary measure added. 2011 High Growth AM & PM.
16000
14000
12000
10000
2011 CLR Total 8000 2011 SG Total
6000
4000 Net Traffic Demand (pcu movements) 2000
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 23 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.4 - Net Change in traffic movements on existing river crossings with each complementary measure added. 2011 High Growth AM & PM.
7000
6000
5000
4000 2011 CLR Total 2011 SG Total 3000
2000 Net Traffic Demand movements) (pcu Traffic Net 1000
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 24 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.5 - Net Change in town centre trips on existing river crossings with each complementary measure added. 2011 High Growth AM & PM.
4000
3500
3000
2500
2011 CLR Total 2000 2011 SG Total
1500
1000 Net Traffic Demand movements) (pcu Traffic Net 500
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 25 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.6 - Net Change in town centre trips switching from alternative routes to use scheme links (CLR or SG) with each complementary measure added. 2011 High Growth AM & PM.
0
-500
-1000
2011 CLR Total -1500 2011 SG Total
-2000
-2500 Net Traffic Demand movements) (pcu Net Traffic
-3000 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 26 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.7 - Net Change in all trips switching from alternative routes to use scheme links (CLR or SG) with each complementary measure added. 2011 High Growth AM & PM.
0
-500
-1000
-1500
2011 CLR Total -2000 2011 SG Total
-2500
-3000
Net Traffic Demand movements) (pcu Net Traffic -3500
-4000 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 27 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figures 3.8 – 3.14 2026 Cost and Benefit Flow Graphs
Figure 3.8 - Net Change in traffic movements on "cost" links (Conservation Area, AQMA & existing river crossings) and "benefit" scheme links (CLR or SG) with each complementary measure added. 2026 High Growth AM & PM.
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000 2026 CLR Total 2026 SG Total 20000
15000
10000 Net Traffic Demand (pcu movements) Net Traffic 5000
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 28 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.9 - Net Change in traffic movements in AQMA with each complementary measure added. 2026 High Growth AM & PM.
16000
14000
12000
10000
2026 CLR Total 8000 2026 SG Total
6000
4000 Net Traffic Demand (pcu movements) 2000
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 29 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.10 - Net Change in traffic movements through Conservation Area with each complementary measure added. 2026 High Growth AM & PM.
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000 2026 CLR Total 2026 SG Total 8000
6000
4000 Net Traffic Demand (pcu movements) 2000
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 30 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.11 - Net Change in traffic movements on existing river crossings with each complementary measure added. 2026 High Growth AM & PM.
7000
6000
5000
4000 2026 CLR Total 2026 SG Total 3000
2000 Net Traffic Demand movements) (pcu Traffic Net 1000
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 31 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.12 - Net Change in town centre trips on existing river crossings with each complementary measure added. 2026 High Growth AM & PM.
4000
3500
3000
2500
2026 CLR Total 2000 2026 SG Total
1500
1000 Net Traffic Demand movements) (pcu Traffic Net 500
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 32 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.13 - Net Change in town centre trips switching from alternative routes to use scheme links (CLR or SG) with each complementary measure added. 2026 High Growth AM & PM.
0
-500
-1000
-1500 2026 CLR Total 2026 SG Total -2000
-2500
Net Traffic Demand movements) (pcu Net Traffic -3000
-3500 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 33 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.14 - Net Change in all trips switching from alternative routes to use scheme links (CLR or SG) with each complementary measure added. 2026 High Growth AM & PM.
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000 2026 CLR Total -2500 2026 SG Total -3000
-3500
-4000 Net Traffic Demand movements) (pcu Net Traffic -4500
-5000 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 34 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figures 3.15 – 3.21 2026 with WEL Cost and Benefit Flow Graphs
Figure 3.15 - Net Change in traffic movements on "cost" links (Conservation Area, AQMA & existing river crossings) and "benefit" scheme links (CLR or SG) with each complementary measure added. 2026 with WEL High Growth AM & PM.
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000 2026 CLR Total 2026 SG Total 20000
15000
10000 Net Traffic Demand (pcu movements) Net Traffic 5000
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 35 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.16 - Net Change in traffic movements in AQMA with each complementary measure added. 2026 with WEL High Growth AM & PM.
14000
12000
10000
8000 2026 CLR Total 2026 SG Total 6000
4000
Net Traffic Demand (pcu movements) 2000
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 36 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.17 - Net Change in traffic movements through Conservation Area with each complementary measure added. 2026 with WELHigh Growth AM & PM.
25000
20000
15000 2026 CLR Total 2026 SG Total 10000
5000 Net Traffic Demand (pcu movements)
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 37 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.18 - Net Change in traffic movements on existing river crossings with each complementary measure added. 2026 with WEL High Growth AM & PM.
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000 2026 CLR Total 2500 2026 SG Total 2000
1500
1000 Net Traffic Demand movements) (pcu Traffic Net
500
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 38 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.19 - Net Change in town centre trips on existing river crossings with each complementary measure added. 2026 with WEL High Growth AM & PM.
3000
2500
2000
2026 CLR Total 1500 2026 SG Total
1000
Net Traffic Demand movements) (pcu Traffic Net 500
0 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 39 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.20 - Net Change in town centre trips switching from alternative routes to use scheme links (CLR or SG) with each complementary measure added. 2026 with WEL High Growth AM & PM.
0
-500
-1000 2026 CLR Total 2026 SG Total -1500
-2000 Net Traffic Demand movements) (pcu Net Traffic
-2500 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 40 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Figure 3.21 - Net Change in all trips switching from alternative routes to use scheme links (CLR or SG) with each complementary measure added. 2026 with WEL High Growth AM & PM.
0
-500
-1000
-1500 2026 CLR Total 2026 SG Total -2000
-2500
Net Traffic Demand movements) (pcu Net Traffic -3000
-3500 Forecast Staple Hall Traffic Calming With MOVA Complementary Measures
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 41 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Tables 3.1 – 3.9 Traffic Flow Forecasts 2011 and 2026
Table 3.1 - 2005 Base Year Traffic Flows
Link Name AM Demand Flow PM Demand Flow 12 Hr Demand Flow 18 Hr Demand Flow AM Speed (kph) PM Speed (kph) %HGV Bridge St s/b 1580 1185 9936 11426 30 23 2 Bridge St n/b 987 1215 7913 9100 32 24 4 Bridge St 2-way 2567 2400 17849 20526 West End se/b 467 221 2472 2843 24 24 1 West End nw/b 228 473 2519 2897 24 24 0 West End 2-way 695 694 4991 5740 High St N n/b 751 751 5397 6207 19 2 2 High St N s/b 1410 860 8157 9381 6 40 1 High St N 2-way 2161 1611 13555 15588 Witan Way N n/b 299 637 3363 3868 20 6 2 Witan Way N s/b 781 501 4607 5298 40 40 2 Witan Way N 2-way 1080 1138 7970 9166 High St C n/b 505 485 3558 4091 28 18 2 High St C s/b 597 665 4535 5215 27 22 1 High St C 2-way 1102 1150 8093 9306 Mill St e/b 451 479 3342 3843 28 4 1 Mill St w/b 385 340 2605 2996 40 40 2 Mill St C 2-way 836 819 5947 6839 Woodgreen Hill s/b 926 666 5721 6579 20 16 3 Woodgreen Hill n/b 769 837 5771 6637 24 24 2 Woodgreen Hill 2-way 1695 1503 11492 13216 Welch Way E e/b 489 352 3022 3475 26 20 1 Welch Way E w/b 305 533 3011 3463 34 29 1 Welch Way E 2-way 794 885 6033 6938 Welch Way W e/b 846 523 4919 5657 48 48 1 Welch Way W w/b 396 921 4733 5443 17 10 1 Welch Way W 2-way 1242 1444 9652 11100 Witan Way S n/b 364 578 3385 3893 48 48 2 Witan Way S s/b 567 456 3676 4228 38 37 2 Witan Way S 2-way 931 1034 7061 8120 Newland w/b 431 477 3263 3752 30 30 2 Newland e/b 354 325 2440 2806 29 26 3 Newland 2-way 785 802 5703 6558 Station Lane E e/b 428 697 4043 4649 48 48 2 Station Lane E w/b 537 513 3773 4339 48 48 2 Station Lane E 2-way 965 1210 7816 8988 Station Lane W e/b 1009 507 5448 6265 60 60 2 Station Lane W w/b 410 987 5020 5773 25 7 2 Station Lane W 2-way 1419 1494 10468 12038 Ducklington Lane N n/b 685 524 4345 4996 23 17 3 Ducklington Lane N s/b 405 727 4068 4678 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N 2-way 1090 1251 8412 9674 Ducklington Lane S n/b 781 881 5972 6868 48 48 3 Ducklington Lane S s/b 620 1009 5854 6732 8 10 4 Ducklington Lane S 2-way 1401 1890 11826 13600 Ducklington Lane N of A40 n/b 1370 1220 9307 13600 6 13 3 Ducklington Lane N of A40 s/b 1004 1526 9091 10703 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N of A40 2-way 2374 2746 18399 24303 Thorney Leys e/b 489 72 2016 2318 65 65 2 Thorney Leys w/b 113 527 2300 2645 65 62 2 Thorney Leys 2-way 602 599 4316 4963 Crawley Road se/b 150 80 826 950 33 33 1 Crawley Road nw/b 122 249 1333 1533 39 37 0 Crawley Road 2-way 272 329 2160 2484 Burford Road E e/b 450 265 2569 2955 33 33 4 Burford Road E w/b 339 376 2569 2955 40 40 3 Burford Road E 2-way 789 641 5139 5909
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 42 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Table 3.2 - 2011 High Growth (Do Minimum) Traffic Flows
Link Name AM Demand Flow PM Demand Flow 12 Hr Demand Flow 18 Hr Demand Flow AM Speed (kph) PM Speed (kph) %HGV Bridge St s/b 1688 1321 10813 12435 25 6 2 Bridge St n/b 1176 1348 9070 10430 32 24 4 Bridge St 2-way 2864 2669 19883 22865 West End se/b 407 194 2160 2484 24 24 1 West End nw/b 365 424 2835 3261 24 24 0 West End 2-way 772 618 4995 5744 High St N n/b 892 840 6224 7157 19 2 2 High St N s/b 1568 967 9109 10476 7 40 1 High St N 2-way 2460 1807 15333 17633 Witan Way N n/b 401 715 4010 4612 15 4 2 Witan Way N s/b 955 675 5857 6736 40 40 2 Witan Way N 2-way 1356 1390 9868 11348 High St C n/b 540 584 4039 4645 27 15 2 High St C s/b 587 707 4650 5347 27 22 1 High St C 2-way 1688 1291 8689 9992 Mill St e/b 674 508 4247 4885 13 3 1 Mill St w/b 510 355 3108 3575 40 40 2 Mill St C 2-way 1184 863 7356 8459 Woodgreen Hill s/b 993 792 6414 7377 20 15 3 Woodgreen Hill n/b 875 950 6558 7542 24 24 2 Woodgreen Hill 2-way 1868 1742 12972 14918 Welch Way E e/b 547 439 3543 4075 26 20 1 Welch Way E w/b 294 708 3601 4141 32 27 1 Welch Way E 2-way 841 1147 7144 8215 Welch Way W e/b 955 674 5854 6732 48 48 1 Welch Way W w/b 489 925 5081 5843 15 4 1 Welch Way W 2-way 1444 1599 10935 12575 Witan Way S n/b 445 713 4161 4785 48 48 2 Witan Way S s/b 737 653 4995 5744 37 37 2 Witan Way S 2-way 1182 1366 9156 10530 Newland w/b 563 542 3971 4566 30 30 2 Newland e/b 392 471 3101 3566 29 26 3 Newland 2-way 955 1013 7072 8133 Station Lane E e/b 518 844 4894 5628 48 48 2 Station Lane E w/b 672 737 5063 5823 48 48 2 Station Lane E 2-way 1190 1581 9958 11451 Station Lane W e/b 1094 595 6069 6980 60 60 2 Station Lane W w/b 527 1236 6335 7286 26 6 2 Station Lane W 2-way 1621 1831 12405 14265 Ducklington Lane N n/b 985 645 5857 6736 48 48 3 Ducklington Lane N s/b 342 727 3841 4418 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N 2-way 1327 1372 9699 11154 Ducklington Lane S n/b 928 1078 7209 8290 48 48 3 Ducklington Lane S s/b 627 965 5721 6579 5 8 4 Ducklington Lane S 2-way 1555 2043 12929 14869 Ducklington Lane N of A40 n/b 1560 1444 10795 12414 4 9 3 Ducklington Lane N of A40 s/b 1089 1706 10044 11550 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N of A40 2-way 2649 3150 20839 23964 Thorney Leys e/b 559 101 2372 2727 65 65 2 Thorney Leys w/b 106 648 2709 3116 65 61 2 Thorney Leys 2-way 665 749 5081 5843 Crawley Road se/b 161 71 834 959 33 33 1 Crawley Road nw/b 193 251 1596 1835 39 37 0 Crawley Road 2-way 354 322 2429 2794 Burford Road E e/b 676 284 3450 3967 32 26 4 Burford Road E w/b 445 426 3130 3599 40 39 3 Burford Road E 2-way 1121 710 6580 7567
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 43 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Table 3.3 - 2011 High Growth (Cogges Link Road) Traffic flows
Link Name AM Demand Flow PM Demand Flow 12 Hr Demand Flow 18 Hr Demand Flow AM Speed (kph) PM Speed (kph) %HGV Bridge St s/b 596 543 4093 4707 21 16 2 Bridge St n/b 506 567 3856 4434 13 3 4 Bridge St 2-way 1102 1110 7949 9141 West End se/b 116 166 1013 1165 4 24 1 West End nw/b 320 435 2713 3120 24 24 0 West End 2-way 436 601 3726 4285 High St N n/b 506 591 3942 4533 10 10 2 High St N s/b 541 304 3036 3492 40 40 1 High St N 2-way 1047 895 6979 8025 Witan Way N n/b 311 612 3317 3814 19 17 2 Witan Way N s/b 370 299 2404 2765 40 40 2 Witan Way N 2-way 681 911 5721 6579 High St C n/b 370 327 2505 2880 27 20 2 High St C s/b 295 370 2390 2748 27 21 1 High St C 2-way 596 697 4894 5628 Mill St e/b 251 219 1689 1942 5 7 1 Mill St w/b 305 482 2828 3252 40 40 2 Mill St C 2-way 556 701 4517 5195 Woodgreen Hill s/b 382 295 2433 2798 2 3 3 Woodgreen Hill n/b 245 278 1879 2161 24 24 2 Woodgreen Hill 2-way 627 573 4312 4959 Welch Way E e/b 460 339 2871 3302 26 20 1 Welch Way E w/b 166 407 2059 2368 31 27 1 Welch Way E 2-way 626 746 4930 5670 Welch Way W e/b 757 545 4679 5381 48 48 1 Welch Way W w/b 393 823 4370 5025 13 9 1 Welch Way W 2-way 1150 1368 9048 10406 Witan Way S n/b 880 829 6141 7062 48 48 2 Witan Way S s/b 865 793 5958 6852 37 37 2 Witan Way S 2-way 1745 1622 12099 13914 Newland w/b 279 356 2282 2624 24 24 2 Newland e/b 225 174 1434 1649 23 21 3 Newland 2-way 504 530 3716 4273 Station Lane E e/b 459 1039 5383 6190 48 48 2 Station Lane E w/b 1297 834 7658 8806 48 47 2 Station Lane E 2-way 1756 1873 13041 14997 Station Lane W e/b 880 725 5768 6633 60 60 2 Station Lane W w/b 886 1254 7690 8844 24 13 2 Station Lane W 2-way 1766 1979 13458 15476 Ducklington Lane N n/b 1047 634 6041 6947 14 15 3 Ducklington Lane N s/b 318 751 3841 4418 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N 2-way 1365 1385 9882 11364 Ducklington Lane S n/b 953 1085 7324 8422 47 48 3 Ducklington Lane S s/b 533 908 5178 5955 5 10 4 Ducklington Lane S 2-way 1486 1993 12502 14377 Ducklington Lane N of A40 n/b 1335 1418 9893 11377 6 8 3 Ducklington Lane N of A40 s/b 1240 1628 10306 11852 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N of A40 2-way 2575 3046 20199 23229 Thorney Leys e/b 574 205 2799 3219 65 65 2 Thorney Leys w/b 300 686 3543 4075 64 59 2 Thorney Leys 2-way 874 891 6342 7294 Crawley Road se/b 162 66 819 942 33 33 1 Crawley Road nw/b 148 232 1366 1570 39 36 0 Crawley Road 2-way 310 298 2185 2513 Burford Road E e/b 345 170 1851 2128 29 27 4 Burford Road E w/b 323 471 2853 3281 40 29 3 Burford Road E 2-way 668 641 4704 5409 Cogges Link Road w/b 1467 858 8355 9608 55 55 2 Cogges Link Road e/b 475 981 5232 6017 64 64 2 Cogges Link Road 2-way 1942 1839 13587 15625
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 44 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Table 3.4 - 2011 High Growth (Shores Green) Traffic Flows
Anode Bnode Link Name AM Demand Flow PM Demand Flow 12 Hr Demand Flow 18 Hr Demand Flow AM Speed (kph) PM Speed (kph) %HGV 183 100 Bridge St s/b 800 685 5336 6137 20 15 2 100 183 Bridge St n/b 530 616 4118 4736 7 3 4 Total Bridge St 2-way 1330 1301 9454 10873 208 185 West End se/b 147 122 967 1112 1 3 1 185 208 West End nw/b 299 479 2796 3215 24 24 0 Total West End 2-way 446 601 3762 4327 365 100 High St N n/b 560 661 4388 5046 10 3 2 100 365 High St N s/b 852 534 4981 5728 40 40 1 Total High St N 2-way 1412 1195 9368 10773 102 101 Witan Way N n/b 287 742 3698 4252 18 19 2 101 102 Witan Way N s/b 593 446 3734 4294 40 40 2 Total Witan Way N 2-way 880 1188 7431 8546 109 110 High St C n/b 407 272 2440 2806 27 19 2 110 109 High St C s/b 346 457 2886 3318 27 22 1 Total High St C 2-way 800 729 5326 6124 114 100 Mill St e/b 246 225 1693 1946 4 2 1 100 114 Mill St w/b 225 421 2321 2670 40 40 2 Total Mill St C 2-way 471 646 4014 4616 198 184 Woodgreen Hill s/b 468 428 3220 3703 1 1 3 184 198 Woodgreen Hill n/b 229 253 1732 1992 24 24 2 Total Woodgreen Hill 2-way 697 681 4952 5695 132 109 Welch Way E e/b 502 233 2641 3037 26 20 1 109 132 Welch Way E w/b 150 400 1976 2273 31 28 1 Total Welch Way E 2-way 652 633 4618 5310 127 128 Welch Way W e/b 862 499 4891 5624 48 48 1 128 127 Welch Way W w/b 436 837 4574 5261 14 4 1 Total Welch Way W 2-way 1298 1336 9465 10885 152 151 Witan Way S n/b 361 546 3259 3748 48 48 2 151 152 Witan Way S s/b 476 527 3604 4145 37 36 2 Total Witan Way S 2-way 837 1073 6864 7893 200 367 Newland w/b 289 391 2444 2810 23 21 2 367 200 Newland e/b 242 257 1793 2062 4 24 3 Total Newland 2-way 531 648 4237 4872 145 153 Station Lane E e/b 477 766 4467 5137 48 48 2 153 145 Station Lane E w/b 454 682 4082 4695 48 48 2 Total Station Lane E 2-way 931 1448 8549 9831 141 142 Station Lane W e/b 1242 599 6616 7608 60 60 2 142 141 Station Lane W w/b 522 1261 6407 7368 20 7 2 Total Station Lane W 2-way 1764 1860 13023 14976 138 127 Ducklington Lane N n/b 1059 528 5703 6558 11 19 3 127 138 Ducklington Lane N s/b 405 783 4269 4909 48 48 4 Total Ducklington Lane N 2-way 1464 1311 9972 11468 141 140 Ducklington Lane S n/b 1043 930 7090 8153 48 48 3 140 141 Ducklington Lane S s/b 755 956 6148 7071 5 6 4 Total Ducklington Lane S 2-way 1798 1886 13238 15224 220 141 Ducklington Lane N of A40 n/b 1755 1304 10992 12641 5 7 3 141 220 Ducklington Lane N of A40 s/b 1354 1853 11524 13253 48 48 4 Total Ducklington Lane N of A40 2-way 3109 3157 22517 25894 155 154 Thorney Leys e/b 608 143 2699 3104 65 65 2 154 155 Thorney Leys w/b 43 638 2447 2814 62 61 2 Total Thorney Leys 2-way 651 781 5146 5918 241 210 Crawley Road se/b 111 57 604 694 33 33 1 210 241 Crawley Road nw/b 206 245 1621 1864 39 37 0 Total Crawley Road 2-way 317 302 2224 2558 119 115 Burford Road E e/b 435 122 2002 2302 26 23 4 115 119 Burford Road E w/b 266 406 2415 2777 40 39 3 Total Burford Road E 2-way 701 528 4416 5079 519 509 Shores Green on-slip w/b 620 326 3399 3909 93 95 2 510 520 Shores Green off-slip e/b 374 620 3572 4108 94 93 2 Total Shores Green slips 2-way 994 946 6971 8017
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 45 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Table 3.5 - 2026 High Growth (Do Minimum) Traffic Flows
Link Name AM Demand Flow PM Demand Flow 12 Hr Demand Flow 18 Hr Demand Flow AM Speed (kph) PM Speed (kph) %HGV Bridge St s/b 1860 1449 11891 13674 26 5 2 Bridge St n/b 1288 1538 10155 11678 32 24 4 Bridge St 2-way 3148 2987 22046 25353 West End se/b 316 223 1937 2227 24 3 1 West End nw/b 344 412 2717 3124 24 24 0 West End 2-way 660 635 4654 5352 High St N n/b 1016 982 7180 8257 18 2 2 High St N s/b 1716 1099 10116 11633 7 40 1 High St N 2-way 2732 2081 17295 19890 Witan Way N n/b 435 828 4539 5219 15 2 2 Witan Way N s/b 1000 742 6260 7199 40 40 2 Witan Way N 2-way 1435 1570 10798 12418 High St C n/b 641 621 4535 5215 26 10 2 High St C s/b 713 865 5671 6521 27 22 1 High St C 2-way 1860 1486 10205 11736 Mill St e/b 660 556 4370 5025 7 2 1 Mill St w/b 532 349 3166 3641 40 40 2 Mill St C 2-way 1192 905 7536 8666 Woodgreen Hill s/b 1042 882 6914 7951 20 13 3 Woodgreen Hill n/b 975 1045 7259 8348 24 24 2 Woodgreen Hill 2-way 2017 1927 14173 16299 Welch Way E e/b 731 477 4341 4992 26 20 1 Welch Way E w/b 445 786 4424 5087 32 26 1 Welch Way E 2-way 1176 1263 8764 10079 Welch Way W e/b 1122 842 7058 8116 48 48 1 Welch Way W w/b 651 934 5696 6550 13 4 1 Welch Way W 2-way 1773 1776 12753 14666 Witan Way S n/b 546 750 4657 5356 48 48 2 Witan Way S s/b 741 907 5922 6810 36 36 2 Witan Way S 2-way 1287 1657 10579 12166 Newland w/b 655 575 4420 5083 30 30 2 Newland e/b 391 548 3374 3880 29 26 3 Newland 2-way 1046 1123 7794 8963 Station Lane E e/b 668 986 5944 6835 48 48 2 Station Lane E w/b 705 1075 6396 7356 48 48 2 Station Lane E 2-way 1373 2061 12340 14191 Station Lane W e/b 1349 865 7956 9149 60 60 2 Station Lane W w/b 528 1803 8376 9633 18 10 2 Station Lane W 2-way 1877 2668 16332 18782 Ducklington Lane N n/b 836 598 5153 5926 4 8 3 Ducklington Lane N s/b 404 557 3453 3971 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N 2-way 1240 1155 8606 9897 Ducklington Lane S n/b 874 1053 6925 7963 48 48 3 Ducklington Lane S s/b 742 678 5103 5868 5 11 4 Ducklington Lane S 2-way 1616 1731 12027 13831 Ducklington Lane N of A40 n/b 1624 1477 11143 12815 4 10 3 Ducklington Lane N of A40 s/b 1151 1830 10712 12319 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N of A40 2-way 2775 3307 21856 25134 Thorney Leys e/b 684 193 3151 3624 65 65 2 Thorney Leys w/b 123 771 3213 3694 65 61 2 Thorney Leys 2-way 807 964 6364 7319 Crawley Road se/b 146 83 823 946 33 33 1 Crawley Road nw/b 184 265 1613 1855 39 36 0 Crawley Road 2-way 330 348 2436 2802 Burford Road E e/b 837 342 4237 4872 30 21 4 Burford Road E w/b 497 487 3536 4066 40 40 3 Burford Road E 2-way 1334 829 7773 8939
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 46 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Table 3.6 - 2026 High Growth (Cogges Link Road) Traffic Flows
Link Name AM Demand Flow PM Demand Flow 12 Hr Demand Flow 18 Hr Demand Flow AM Speed (kph) PM Speed (kph) %HGV Bridge St s/b 648 560 4341 4992 15 7 2 Bridge St n/b 535 614 4129 4748 5 3 4 Bridge St 2-way 1183 1174 8470 9740 West End se/b 121 195 1136 1306 2 24 1 West End nw/b 353 474 2972 3418 24 24 0 West End 2-way 474 669 4107 4723 High St N n/b 404 623 3691 4244 8 3 2 High St N s/b 964 279 4467 5137 40 40 1 High St N 2-way 1368 902 8157 9381 Witan Way N n/b 291 609 3234 3719 16 19 2 Witan Way N s/b 668 312 3522 4050 40 40 2 Witan Way N 2-way 959 921 6756 7769 High St C n/b 287 384 2411 2773 26 20 2 High St C s/b 394 355 2692 3095 27 21 1 High St C 2-way 648 739 5103 5868 Mill St e/b 749 271 3665 4215 14 3 1 Mill St w/b 302 560 3098 3562 40 40 2 Mill St C 2-way 1051 831 6763 7777 Woodgreen Hill s/b 410 360 2767 3182 1 3 3 Woodgreen Hill n/b 266 347 2203 2533 24 24 2 Woodgreen Hill 2-way 676 707 4970 5715 Welch Way E e/b 377 407 2817 3240 26 20 1 Welch Way E w/b 222 409 2267 2608 32 27 1 Welch Way E 2-way 599 816 5085 5847 Welch Way W e/b 830 689 5458 6277 48 48 1 Welch Way W w/b 426 827 4503 5178 13 7 1 Welch Way W 2-way 1256 1516 9961 11455 Witan Way S n/b 1017 843 6684 7686 33 48 2 Witan Way S s/b 1055 999 7381 8488 37 37 2 Witan Way S 2-way 2072 1842 14065 16175 Newland w/b 325 370 2497 2872 24 24 2 Newland e/b 232 211 1592 1831 23 22 3 Newland 2-way 557 581 4089 4703 Station Lane E e/b 652 1133 6414 7377 48 48 2 Station Lane E w/b 1404 1072 8897 10232 48 47 2 Station Lane E 2-way 2056 2205 15312 17609 Station Lane W e/b 1085 840 6917 7955 60 60 2 Station Lane W w/b 843 1613 8826 10149 10 14 2 Station Lane W 2-way 1928 2453 15743 18104 Ducklington Lane N n/b 849 646 5372 6178 7 6 3 Ducklington Lane N s/b 331 588 3302 3798 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N 2-way 1180 1234 8675 9976 Ducklington Lane S n/b 842 1172 7237 8323 48 48 3 Ducklington Lane S s/b 523 721 4470 5141 5 7 4 Ducklington Lane S 2-way 1365 1893 11708 13464 Ducklington Lane N of A40 n/b 1274 1336 9379 10786 6 6 3 Ducklington Lane N of A40 s/b 1293 1555 10234 11769 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N of A40 2-way 2567 2891 19613 22555 Thorney Leys e/b 711 361 3852 4430 65 65 2 Thorney Leys w/b 201 886 3906 4492 64 55 2 Thorney Leys 2-way 912 1247 7758 8922 Crawley Road se/b 149 82 830 955 33 33 1 Crawley Road nw/b 178 257 1563 1798 39 36 0 Crawley Road 2-way 327 339 2393 2752 Burford Road E e/b 815 197 3637 4182 32 28 4 Burford Road E w/b 322 580 3241 3728 40 39 3 Burford Road E 2-way 1137 777 6878 7910 Cogges Link Road w/b 1532 1130 9566 11001 55 55 2 Cogges Link Road e/b 659 1279 6964 8009 64 64 2 Cogges Link Road 2-way 2191 2409 16530 19009
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 47 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Table 3.7 - 2011 High Growth (Shores Green) Traffic Flows
Link Name AM Demand Flow PM Demand Flow 12 Hr Demand Flow 18 Hr Demand Flow AM Speed (kph) PM Speed (kph) %HGV Bridge St s/b 805 698 5401 6211 15 4 2 Bridge St n/b 579 697 4585 5273 3 3 4 Bridge St 2-way 1384 1395 9986 11484 West End se/b 146 121 959 1103 1 3 1 West End nw/b 308 502 2911 3347 24 24 0 West End 2-way 454 623 3870 4451 High St N n/b 435 485 3306 3802 6 1 2 High St N s/b 1119 400 5458 6277 40 40 1 High St N 2-way 1554 885 8764 10079 Witan Way N n/b 311 529 3019 3471 16 5 2 Witan Way N s/b 842 455 4661 5360 40 40 2 Witan Way N 2-way 1153 984 7679 8831 High St C n/b 252 348 2156 2479 26 20 2 High St C s/b 325 375 2515 2893 27 21 1 High St C 2-way 805 723 4672 5372 Mill St e/b 665 243 3263 3752 8 1 1 Mill St w/b 207 330 1930 2219 40 40 2 Mill St C 2-way 872 573 5193 5971 Woodgreen Hill s/b 443 415 3083 3546 1 1 3 Woodgreen Hill n/b 259 324 2095 2409 24 24 2 Woodgreen Hill 2-way 702 739 5178 5955 Welch Way E e/b 313 319 2271 2612 26 20 1 Welch Way E w/b 145 479 2242 2579 31 28 1 Welch Way E 2-way 458 798 4513 5190 Welch Way W e/b 862 559 5106 5872 48 48 1 Welch Way W w/b 453 773 4406 5066 12 4 1 Welch Way W 2-way 1315 1332 9512 10939 Witan Way S n/b 406 535 3381 3889 48 48 2 Witan Way S s/b 632 754 4981 5728 38 36 2 Witan Way S 2-way 1038 1289 8362 9616 Newland w/b 292 417 2548 2930 2 3 2 Newland e/b 224 240 1667 1917 23 21 3 Newland 2-way 516 657 4215 4847 Station Lane E e/b 542 845 4984 5732 48 48 2 Station Lane E w/b 609 996 5768 6633 48 48 2 Station Lane E 2-way 1151 1841 10752 12364 Station Lane W e/b 1360 715 7456 8575 60 60 2 Station Lane W w/b 631 1727 8473 9744 21 10 2 Station Lane W 2-way 1991 2442 15930 18319 Ducklington Lane N n/b 956 625 5681 6533 7 10 3 Ducklington Lane N s/b 371 588 3446 3963 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N 2-way 1327 1213 9127 10497 Ducklington Lane S n/b 919 1026 6989 8038 48 48 3 Ducklington Lane S s/b 694 736 5139 5909 4 7 4 Ducklington Lane S 2-way 1613 1762 12128 13947 Ducklington Lane N of A40 n/b 1679 1288 10662 12261 4 6 3 Ducklington Lane N of A40 s/b 1316 1891 11524 13253 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N of A40 2-way 2995 3179 22186 25514 Thorney Leys e/b 670 178 3047 3504 65 65 2 Thorney Leys w/b 35 706 2663 3062 64 61 2 Thorney Leys 2-way 705 884 5710 6567 Crawley Road se/b 116 63 643 740 33 33 1 Crawley Road nw/b 214 267 1728 1988 39 36 0 Crawley Road 2-way 330 330 2372 2727 Burford Road E e/b 742 139 3166 3641 33 23 4 Burford Road E w/b 256 256 1840 2116 40 39 3 Burford Road E 2-way 998 395 5006 5757 Shores Green on-slip w/b 946 814 6325 7273 87 90 2 Shores Green off-slip e/b 434 839 4574 5261 94 90 2 Shores Green slips 2-way 1380 1653 10899 12534
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 48 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Table 3.8 - 2026 High Growth (Cogges Link Road) + West End Link Traffic Flows
Link Name AM Demand Flow PM Demand Flow 12 Hr Demand Flow 18 Hr Demand Flow AM Speed (kph) PM Speed (kph) %HGV Bridge St s/b 500 476 3507 4033 16 17 2 Bridge St n/b 320 299 2224 2558 32 24 4 Bridge St 2-way 820 775 5732 6591 West End se/b 213 220 1556 1789 24 24 1 West End nw/b 430 356 2824 3248 24 24 0 West End 2-way 643 576 4380 5038 High St N n/b 321 557 3155 3628 9 11 2 High St N s/b 972 550 5469 6290 40 40 1 High St N 2-way 1293 1107 8624 9918 Witan Way N n/b 207 671 3155 3628 15 19 2 Witan Way N s/b 731 411 4104 4719 40 40 2 Witan Way N 2-way 938 1082 7259 8348 High St C n/b 235 212 1606 1847 26 18 2 High St C s/b 267 468 2641 3037 27 22 1 High St C 2-way 500 680 4247 4885 Mill St e/b 574 227 2878 3310 13 12 1 Mill St w/b 104 412 1854 2132 40 40 2 Mill St C 2-way 678 639 4733 5443 Woodgreen Hill s/b 298 248 1962 2256 3 4 3 Woodgreen Hill n/b 396 378 2781 3199 24 24 2 Woodgreen Hill 2-way 694 626 4743 5455 Welch Way E e/b 352 196 1969 2265 26 20 1 Welch Way E w/b 171 445 2214 2546 31 28 1 Welch Way E 2-way 523 641 4183 4810 Welch Way W e/b 726 753 5315 6112 48 48 1 Welch Way W w/b 466 863 4776 5492 7 6 1 Welch Way W 2-way 1192 1616 10090 11604 Witan Way S n/b 782 769 5573 6410 48 48 2 Witan Way S s/b 1259 942 7909 9096 36 37 2 Witan Way S 2-way 2041 1711 13483 15505 Newland w/b 291 344 2282 2624 24 24 2 Newland e/b 205 184 1398 1608 23 21 3 Newland 2-way 496 528 3680 4232 Station Lane E e/b 438 1079 5451 6269 48 48 2 Station Lane E w/b 1587 1085 9602 11042 48 47 2 Station Lane E 2-way 2025 2164 15053 17311 Station Lane W e/b 785 762 5559 6393 60 60 2 Station Lane W w/b 930 1620 9163 10538 23 23 2 Station Lane W 2-way 1715 2382 14722 16931 Ducklington Lane N n/b 868 613 5322 6120 7 8 3 Ducklington Lane N s/b 302 549 3058 3517 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N 2-way 1170 1162 8380 9637 Ducklington Lane S n/b 710 1190 6828 7852 47 47 3 Ducklington Lane S s/b 513 710 4395 5054 4 9 4 Ducklington Lane S 2-way 1223 1900 11222 12906 Ducklington Lane N of A40 n/b 1115 1283 8617 9910 6 7 3 Ducklington Lane N of A40 s/b 1210 1485 9684 11137 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N of A40 2-way 2325 2768 18302 21047 Thorney Leys e/b 511 290 2878 3310 65 65 2 Thorney Leys w/b 396 893 4632 5327 65 57 2 Thorney Leys 2-way 907 1183 7510 8637 Crawley Road se/b 156 81 852 979 15 15 1 Crawley Road nw/b 93 331 1524 1752 38 36 0 Crawley Road 2-way 249 412 2375 2732 Burford Road E e/b 519 515 3716 4273 10 9 4 Burford Road E w/b 576 569 4115 4732 40 39 3 Burford Road E 2-way 1095 1084 7830 9005 Cogges Link Road w/b 1196 770 7065 8124 54 55 2 Cogges Link Road e/b 365 870 4438 5104 64 64 2 Cogges Link Road 2-way 1561 1640 11503 13228 West End Link s/b 1146 618 6339 7290 15 12 2 West End Link n/b 441 998 5171 5947 8 16 2 West End Link 2-way 1587 1616 11510 13236
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 49 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Table 3.9 - 2026 High Growth (Shores Green) + West End Link Traffic Flows
Link Name AM Demand Flow PM Demand Flow 12 Hr Demand Flow 18 Hr Demand Flow AM Speed (kph) PM Speed (kph) %HGV Bridge St s/b 582 523 3971 4566 15 17 2 Bridge St n/b 322 437 2727 3137 32 7 4 Bridge St 2-way 904 960 6698 7703 West End se/b 187 232 1506 1732 24 24 1 West End nw/b 516 708 4398 5058 24 24 0 West End 2-way 703 940 5904 6790 High St N n/b 341 730 3849 4426 8 11 2 High St N s/b 1168 732 6828 7852 40 40 1 High St N 2-way 1509 1462 10676 12278 Witan Way N n/b 227 826 3784 4352 14 16 2 Witan Way N s/b 921 614 5516 6343 40 40 2 Witan Way N 2-way 1148 1440 9300 10695 High St C n/b 232 256 1754 2017 26 18 2 High St C s/b 269 473 2666 3066 27 22 1 High St C 2-way 582 729 4420 5083 Mill St e/b 649 258 3259 3748 14 11 1 Mill St w/b 83 343 1531 1760 40 40 2 Mill St C 2-way 732 601 4790 5509 Woodgreen Hill s/b 361 329 2479 2851 2 2 3 Woodgreen Hill n/b 400 396 2860 3289 24 24 2 Woodgreen Hill 2-way 761 725 5340 6141 Welch Way E e/b 384 227 2196 2525 20 20 1 Welch Way E w/b 156 452 2185 2513 30 28 1 Welch Way E 2-way 540 679 4380 5038 Welch Way W e/b 805 671 5304 6100 48 48 1 Welch Way W w/b 516 850 4909 5645 8 4 1 Welch Way W 2-way 1321 1521 10213 11745 Witan Way S n/b 417 596 3640 4186 48 48 2 Witan Way S s/b 693 731 5117 5885 37 36 2 Witan Way S 2-way 1110 1327 8757 10071 Newland w/b 369 357 2609 3000 24 24 2 Newland e/b 224 274 1790 2058 23 22 3 Newland 2-way 593 631 4398 5058 Station Lane E e/b 527 874 5034 5790 48 48 2 Station Lane E w/b 644 942 5699 6554 48 48 2 Station Lane E 2-way 1171 1816 10734 12344 Station Lane W e/b 1283 684 7068 8129 60 60 2 Station Lane W w/b 598 1608 7927 9116 19 11 2 Station Lane W 2-way 1881 2292 14996 17245 Ducklington Lane N n/b 767 499 4549 5232 11 14 3 Ducklington Lane N s/b 382 556 3371 3876 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N 2-way 1149 1055 7920 9108 Ducklington Lane S n/b 746 986 6224 7157 48 48 3 Ducklington Lane S s/b 710 708 5096 5860 5 8 4 Ducklington Lane S 2-way 1456 1694 11319 13017 Ducklington Lane N of A40 n/b 1574 1307 10353 11906 6 7 3 Ducklington Lane N of A40 s/b 1301 1754 10978 12625 48 48 4 Ducklington Lane N of A40 2-way 2875 3061 21331 24531 Thorney Leys e/b 646 179 2965 3409 65 65 2 Thorney Leys w/b 160 776 3363 3868 65 60 2 Thorney Leys 2-way 806 955 6328 7277 Crawley Road se/b 198 108 1100 1265 12 14 1 Crawley Road nw/b 67 324 1405 1616 37 36 0 Crawley Road 2-way 265 432 2505 2880 Burford Road E e/b 447 532 3518 4046 11 8 4 Burford Road E w/b 566 643 4345 4996 40 39 3 Burford Road E 2-way 1013 1175 7863 9042 Shores Green on-slip w/b 334 360 2494 2868 95 95 2 Shores Green off-slip e/b 371 496 3116 3583 95 94 2 Shores Green slips 2-way 705 856 5609 6451 West End Link s/b 1340 817 7751 8914 14 16 2 West End Link n/b 392 936 4772 5488 7 8 2 West End Link 2-way 1732 1753 12523 14402
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 50 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Table 3.10 Comparison of DM, CLR and SGSR 2011 (AM & PM Peaks) through movements in the AQMA and CA, no complementary measures
Through Movements Conservation AQMA Total AM & PM Peaks Area Do Minimum 14237 14475 28712 Cogges Link Road 13224 11950 25174 Shores Green 14422 12894 27316
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 51 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
4 Conclusions
4.1 Conclusions
4.1.1 This modelling exercise has examined the likely traffic impact of building the Cogges Link Road or Shores Green slips on key areas of the town centre. It has built upon the screening of alternatives process to examine in greater detail the effectiveness of each scheme in serving the commercial town centre (benefit trips), whilst also assessing the change in impact on sensitive locations such as Bridge Street (cost trips).
4.1.2 The anticipated growth in traffic in and around Witney is such that congestion in the Bridge Street and Staple Hall areas will continue to rise through peak spreading and longer queues. An alternative river crossing will ease this pressure, however this would be most effective with measures added to encourage its use and discourage unnecessary car travel.
4.1.3 The two alternative schemes, CLR and SGSR west-facing slip-roads both act to redistribute traffic around and through the town centre in different ways. Whilst the SGSR alternative has a smaller impact on Conservation Area through trips, it fails to provide sufficient relief to Bridge Street (and thus the AQMA), both for town centre traffic and for the relatively low level of through traffic.
4.1.4 In the CLR alternative, more traffic has been shown to use the new scheme to travel to and from town centre zones than the SGSR alternative. This is because much of this demand is on the north eastern side of the town where Jubilee Way and the CLR provide a continuous, high quality route that enters the town centre on Witan Way, just south of the main commercial area.
4.1.5 Furthermore, traffic using the SGSR slip-roads would have further to travel and would add to the already congested Station Lane / Ducklington Lane signal junction.
4.1.6 This traffic modelling exercise has used a fixed matrix approach, and as such merely redistributes traffic around the network rather than reducing overall volumes. The purpose of either solution (CLR or SGSR) is to relieve those areas currently experiencing excessive traffic such as Bridge Street by providing an attractive alternative that better copes with the demand. As much of this demand is for trips to or from the town centre, any solution that best caters for this element will by implication be providing greater overall relief elsewhere.
4.1.7 The DIADEM analysis identified that induced traffic would not be an issue for schemes of this nature in Witney, although the CMSR has identified realistic and cost-effective proposals that can achieve a reduction in traffic levels overall.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 52 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
4.1.8 In order to maximise the demand that switches to the new scheme, a series of complementary measures have been modelled with each option. Whilst these are shown to increase the use of either option whilst providing relief to sensitive areas such as Bridge Street, the model does show them to be more effective in the CLR option.
4.1.9 This is principally for two reasons; firstly, the CLR takes traffic to and from the town centre more directly via the Witan Way roundabout. Secondly, whilst the SGSR option would undoubtedly provide an attractive route to the A40, the level of through traffic (i.e. traffic heading right out of the immediate study area) that would be catered for is very low. This is reflected in the respective traffic levels using either scheme.
4.1.10 By 2026, Witney may have expanded with further development to the south- west of the town. Whilst the Downs Road / A40 intersection will be a vital improvement designed to support existing and future development, the provision of a major scheme to relieve current pressures in the town centre will have assumed even greater significance by then.
4.1.11 As with 2011, a similar pattern emerges over the relative benefits afforded by the two schemes in 2026. Whilst additional traffic is attracted to the SGSR slip- roads, this is still less than the volume using the CLR in 2011. The route is less attractive for non-through traffic (which forms the majority of trips) and is due principally to the length of diversion, and the additional delays that occur at the Ducklington Lane / Station Lane junction.
4.1.12 The addition of the WEL in 2026 only strengthens the case for the CLR, as its impact with SGSR is less significant. It does add to the net volume of cost / benefit trips by over 20% (compare Figures 3.8 and 3.15), however it also reduces this figure in the AQMA by over 17% (compare Figures 3.9 and 3.16).
4.1.13 The high level of detail in this analysis has consistently identified that the greater level of traffic benefits would be derived from the CLR option. This is principally because it carries a significant proportion of town centre traffic that would otherwise use the existing Bridge Street access.
4.1.14 Additional measures highlighted in the CMSR would add further benefits by seeking to reduce unnecessary car travel into Witney. These potential measures will be reviewed once the chosen scheme has been constructed.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 53 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Appendix A
Witney 2011 and 2026 Forecasting Methodology
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 54 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Witney 2011 and 2026 Forecasting Methodology
Matrix Construction
Matrices were required for the forecast years 2011 and 2026. The 2011 matrices were to be used for screening as well as opening year forecasts*. The WODC Local Plan has a housing target of between 2887 and 3177 new units in the town between 1996 and 2011. Many of these were already in place in the 2005 base year; therefore this note sets out the method for including the remainder in the forecast matrices. None of the new housing proposed for North Curbridge will be in place by 2011.
The start point is the two base year matrices for 2005 AM peak and PM Peak.
The matrix totals are:
2005 AM Peak (AM2005v49.UFM) = 11269 2005 PM Peak (PM2005v41.UFM) = 11694
* The release of TEMPRO version 5.0 was delayed by the DfT until July 2006, meaning the screening of options was run using the (then) current TEMPRO version 4.2.3, dataset 1.6. Once the screening had been completed, the new TEMPRO version 5.0, dataset 5.2 was released, and users were advised to use this for further work. The full forecasting therefore applied matrices derived from TEMPRO 5.0 and also took more account of geographical variations in growth (i.e. zones outside Witney were given Oxfordshire County growth). As can be seen from the figures below, the rates of growth derived from version 4.3.2 are much higher than those from the more recent version 5.0.
Screening Exercise using TEMPRO 4.3.2
The screening exercise applied car driver growth derived from TEMPRO 4.3.2 for Witney only (2005-2011), and is as follows:
AM Peak: Production = 1.125 Attraction = 1.129 PM Peak: Production = 1.120 Attraction = 1.131
The average of these is 1.127 for AM Peak and 1.126 for PM Peak. This is the Reference Case. It is somewhere between the anticipated High Growth and Low Growth projections that are required for COBA & TUBA.
The next step was to calculate the Combined Factor. This introduces an income adjustment factor and a fuel price factor.
The income adjustment factor and fuel price factor are taken from Table 4A in the TEMPRO version 5 guidance notes.
IAF = 2011 IAF / 2005 IAF 1.057 / 1.040 = 1.02801 FPF = 2011 FPF / 2005 FPF 1.001 / 0.965 = 1.03731
The combined factor multiplies these two figures.
Combined Factor = 1.02801 * 1.03731 = 1.066365
The Overall Reference Case multiples the Reference Case (1.127 AM and 1.126 PM, above) with this Combined Factor.
Overall Reference Case for 2005 – 2011 AM: 1.127 * 1.066365 = 1.2018 Overall Reference Case for 2005 – 2011 PM: 1.126 * 1.066365 = 1.2007
Therefore, the reference case matrix for 2011 applies this factor to the 2005 matrix total.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 55 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
So, to convert the 2005 AM Peak to 2011 AM Peak Reference Case:
11269 * 1.2018 = 13543
The total of 13543 is the final 2011 AM Peak matrix total that was required. This was to include both known development trips (calculated separately) and a growth in background (2005) traffic.
Similarly, to convert the 2005 PM Peak to 2011 PM Peak Reference Case:
11694 * 1.2007 = 14041
Trips from committed developments needed to be calculated first, with the remainder required to reach these totals added as background growth.
AM Peak Development trip generations* = 876.26 PM Peak Development trip generations* = 1297.20
* taken from spreadsheet “2011 & 2026 Trip Generation.xls”, included in this Appendix
Therefore AM Peak = 11269 + background growth + 876 = 13543 Therefore PM Peak = 11694 + background growth + 1297 = 14041
Therefore AM Peak background growth = 1398. This is 12.41% of the base AM matrix. Factoring the AM base matrix by 1.1241 created the 2011 AM Peak non-development trips AM11NONDEV.UFM (12668)
PM Peak background growth = 1050. This is 8.98% of the base PM matrix. Factoring the PM base matrix by 1.0898 created the 2011 PM Peak non-development trips PM11NONDEV.UFM (12744)
The next step (below) was to build separate 2011 development matrices containing only the 876 (AM) and 1297 (PM) development trips. This is detailed in the section on Development Trips, below.
For the AM Peak, this was added to the AM11NONDEV.UFM matrix to create a new total 2011 matrix containing approximately 13543 trips. This gave the Reference Case 2011 AM Peak Matrix.
For the PM Peak, this was added to the PM11NONDEV.UFM matrix to create a new total 2011 matrix containing approximately 14041 trips. This gave the Reference Case 2011 PM Peak Matrix.
Forecasting using TEMPRO 5.0
The same methodology was used to produce 2011 & 2026 forecasts, but with the new lower car driver growth rates provided in TEMPRO 5.0. ITEA say that these lower rates are due to changes in zone boundaries, modal shifts and demographic changes such as an ageing population.
The 2005-2011 car driver growth rates are:
Witney AM Production = 1.044 Witney AM Attraction = 1.032 Oxfordshire AM Production = 1.068 Oxfordshire AM Attraction = 1.038 Witney PM Production = 1.027 Witney PM Attraction = 1.025 Oxfordshire PM Production = 1.032 Oxfordshire PM Attraction = 1.029
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 56 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
The average for Witney zones is 1.038 for AM Peak and 1.026 for PM Peak. This is the Reference Case. For Oxfordshire zones, the average is 1.053 for AM Peak and 1.0305 for PM Peak. As two areas were being used, the reference case and combined factor were simply applied to the number of trips in the matrix wholly within Witney or outside Witney (Oxfordshire). The two were then added together to derive a target level of growth which would include the development trips already calculated.
As shown above, the 2005-2011 Combined Factor = 1.02801 * 1.03731 = 1.066365
The Overall Reference Case for Witney zones multiplied the Reference Case (1.038 AM and 1.026 PM, above) with this Combined Factor.
Overall Reference Case for 2005 – 2011 AM: 1.038 * 1.066365 = 1.1069 Overall Reference Case for 2005 – 2011 PM: 1.026 * 1.066365 = 1.0941
Therefore, the reference case matrix for 2011 applied this factor to the 2005 Witney zones matrix totals.
So, to convert the 2005 Witney Zones AM & PM Peaks to 2011 AM & PM Peaks Reference Case:
2005 AM Total minus Oxfordshire only trips (zones 54-65)
(11269.17 - 556.47) * 1.1069 = 11857.89 (Witney)
2005 PM Total minus Oxfordshire only trips (zones 54-65)
(11694.00 - 568.15) * 1.0941 = 12172.79 (Witney)
The Overall Reference Case for Oxfordshire zones multiplied the Reference Case (1.053 AM and 1.0305 PM, above) with this Combined Factor.
Overall Reference Case for 2005 – 2011 AM: 1.053 * 1.066365 = 1.1229 Overall Reference Case for 2005 – 2011 PM: 1.0305 * 1.066365 = 1.0989
Therefore, the reference case matrix for 2011 applied this factor to the 2005 Oxfordshire zones (54-65) matrix total.
So, to convert the 2005 Oxfordshire Zones AM & PM Peaks to 2011 AM & PM Peaks Reference Case:
2005 AM Oxfordshire only trips (zones 54-65)
556.47 * 1.1229 = 624.86 (Oxfordshire)
2005 PM Oxfordshire only trips (zones 54-65)
568.15 * 1.0989 = 624.34 (Oxfordshire)
Adding these Witney & Oxfordshire totals gave an overall target growth for 2005-2011 AM Peak:
11857.89 + 624.86 = 12482.75 (AM Peak Total)
Adding these Witney & Oxfordshire totals gave an overall target growth for 2005-2011 PM Peak:
12172.79 + 624.34 = 12797.13 (PM Peak Total)
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 57 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
(This whole exercise of splitting Witney & Oxfordshire trips added just 8 trips to the AM matrix and 3 to the PM matrix).
So, the target matrix totals once developments were added in will be 12483 (AM) and 12797 (PM).
Trips from committed developments had to be calculated first, with the remainder required to reach these totals added as background growth.
AM Peak Development trip generations* = 876.26 PM Peak Development trip generations* = 1297.20
* taken from spreadsheet “2011 & 2026 Trip Generation.xls”
Therefore AM Peak = 11269 + background growth + 876 = 12483 Therefore PM Peak = 11694 + background growth + 1297 = 12797 #
# See below – this figure will increase slightly because overall TEMPRO 5.0 growth is lower than committed developments trips.
Therefore AM Peak background growth = 338. This is 3.00% of the base AM matrix. Factoring the AM base matrix by 1.03 created the 2011 AM Peak non-development trips AM11NONDEVT5.UFM (11607). The difference in trip generations between Witney & Oxfordshire zones is negligible; therefore applying this one factor to the whole matrix was acceptable.
PM Peak background growth = 0, as the base total plus developments is less than the target figure. The two were simply therefore added together to create a 2011 target as there was no need to create a 2011 PM Peak non development matrix. The overall PM Peak target figure was therefore 12991 (base + developments only).
AM11NONDEVT5.UFM+AM11DEVS.UFM= AM11REFCASET5.UFM (12483) PM2005V41.UFM + PM11DEVS.UFM = PM11REFCASET5.UFM (12991)
Creating 2011 High & Low Growth Matrices for COBA & TUBA
The uncertainty over whether growth will be high or low over a given number of years can be calculated using the following formula:
+/- 2.5% * √ no. years’ growth
Therefore, for growth from 2005 - 2011:
0.025 * √6 = 0.0612
Low Growth Factor = (1.000 – 0.0612) = 0.9388
High Growth Factor = (1.000 + 0.0612) = 1.0612
To create the AM & PM High & Low growth matrices, simply apply these factors to the reference case 2011 matrices calculated above using TEMPRO 5.0.
This method ensures that both background and development trips increase or decline according to the growth scenario.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 58 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Therefore take AM11REFCASET5.UFM and apply these factors. This gives:
AM11LOW.UFM (11719.52 trips)
AM11HIGH.UFM (13247.50 trips)
For the PM Peak, take PM11REFCASET5.UFM and apply these factors. This gives:
PM11LOW.UFM (12196.13 trips)
PM11HIGH.UFM (13786.25 trips)
2026 Matrices
The starting point was the 2011 AM & PM Reference Case matrices AM11REFCASET5.UFM and PM11REFCASET5.UFM. These effectively formed the background trips that needed to be factored up to 2026.
The 2011-2026 TEMPRO 5 car driver growth rates for Witney & Oxfordshire are:
Witney AM Production = 1.026 Witney AM Attraction = 1.028 Oxfordshire AM Production = 1.085 Oxfordshire AM Attraction = 1.045 Witney PM Production = 1.082 Witney PM Attraction = 1.062 Oxfordshire PM Production = 1.091 Oxfordshire PM Attraction = 1.080
The average for Witney zones is 1.027 for AM Peak and 1.072 for PM Peak. This is the Reference Case. For Oxfordshire zones, the average is 1.065 for AM Peak and 1.0855 for PM Peak. As two areas were being used, the reference case and combined factor were simply applied to the number of trips in the matrix wholly within Witney or outside Witney (Oxfordshire). The two were then added together to derive a target level of growth which would include the development trips already calculated.
The next step was to calculate the Combined Factor for 2011-2026. This introduced an income adjustment factor and a fuel price factor.
The income adjustment factor and fuel price factor are taken from Table 5A in TEMPRO guidance note.
IAF = 2026 IAF / 2011 IAF 1.111 / 1.057 = 1.0511 FPF = 2026 FPF / 2011 FPF 1.031 / 1.001 = 1.0300
The combined factor multiplies these two figures.
So, the 2011-2026 Combined Factor = 1.0511 * 1.0300 = 1.0826
The Overall Reference Case AM Peak for Witney zones multiplies the Reference Case (1.027 AM, and 1.072 PM above) with this Combined Factor.
Overall Reference Case for 2011 – 2026 AM: 1.027 * 1.0826 = 1.1118 Overall Reference Case for 2011 – 2026 PM: 1.072 * 1.0826 = 1.1605
Therefore, the reference case matrix for 2026 applied this factor to the 2011 Reference Case Witney zones matrix totals.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 59 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
So, to convert the 2011 Reference Case Witney Zones AM Peak to 2026 AM Peak Reference Case:
2011 Ref Case AM Total minus 2011 Oxfordshire only trips (zones 54-65)
(12483 – 625) * 1.1118 = 13184 (Witney)
2011 Ref Case PM Total minus 2011 Oxfordshire only trips (zones 54-65)
(12991 – 624) * 1.1605 = 14352 (Witney)
The Overall Reference Case for Oxfordshire zones multiplied the Reference Case (1.065 AM and 1.0855 PM, above) with the Combined Factor (1.0826).
Overall Reference Case for 2011 – 2026 Oxfordshire AM: 1.065 * 1.0826 = 1.1530 Overall Reference Case for 2011 – 2026 Oxfordshire PM: 1.0855 * 1.0826 = 1.1752
Therefore, the reference case matrix for 2026 applied this factor to the 2011 Reference Case Oxfordshire zones (54-65) matrix total.
So, to convert the 2011 Reference Case Oxfordshire Zones AM Peak to 2026 AM Peak Reference Case:
2026 Ref Case AM Oxfordshire only trips
625 * 1.1530 = 721 (Oxfordshire)
2026 Ref Case PM Oxfordshire only trips
624 * 1.1752 = 733 (Oxfordshire)
Adding these Witney & Oxfordshire totals gave an overall target growth for 2011-2026 AM Peak:
13184 + 721 = 13905 (Total)
Adding these Witney & Oxfordshire totals gave an overall target growth for 2011-2026 PM Peak:
14352 + 733 = 15085 (Total)
So, the target matrix totals once developments were added were 13905 (AM) and 15085 (PM).
Trips from committed developments between 2011 and 2026 needed to be calculated first, with the remainder required to reach these totals added as background growth. See the 2011-2026 Developments section below for a breakdown of how these trips are derived.
2026 AM Peak Development trip generations = 942 2026 PM Peak Development trip generations = 924
Therefore AM Peak = 12483 + background growth + 942 = 13905 Therefore PM Peak = 12991 + background growth + 924 = 15085
Therefore AM Peak background growth = 480. This is 3.85% of the 2011 AM matrix. Factor AM 2011 matrix by 1.0385 to get 2026 AM Peak non-development trips AM26NONDEVT5.UFM (12964). The difference in trip generations between Witney & Oxfordshire zones was again negligible; therefore applying this one factor to the whole matrix was acceptable.
PM Peak background growth = 1170. This is 9.01% of the 2011 PM matrix. Factor PM 2011 matrix by 1.0901 to get 2026 PM Peak non-development trips PM26NONDEVT5.UFM (14162).
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 60 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
The difference in trip generations between Witney & Oxfordshire zones was again negligible; therefore applying this one factor to the whole matrix was acceptable.
AM26NONDEVT5.UFM + AM26DEVS.UFM = AM26REFCASET5.UFM (13905) PM26NONDEVT5.UFM + PM26DEVS.UFM = PM26REFCASET5.UFM (15085)
Creating 2026 High & Low Growth Matrices for COBA & TUBA
To create the 2026 Reference Case matrices, the 2011 Reference Case matrix totals were factored using TEMPRO 5 to identify a target total which contained known development trips (i.e. North Curbridge, above). Once these had been added, any background trips in the matrix were factored up to achieve the target total.
To convert these matrices to High & Low Growth from 2011 – 2026, the following formula was used:
+/- 2.5% * √ no. years’ growth
Therefore
0.025 * √15 = 0.0968
Low Growth Factor = (1.000 – 0.0968) = 0.9032
High Growth Factor = (1.000 + 0.0968) = 1.0968
To create the AM & PM High & Low growth matrices, these factors were simply applied to the reference case 2026 matrices calculated above using TEMPRO 5.0.
This method ensured that both background and development trips increase or decline according to the growth scenario.
Therefore take AM26REFCASET5.UFM and apply these factors. This gives:
AM26LOW.UFM (12559 trips)
AM26HIGH.UFM (15251 trips)
For the PM Peak, take PM26REFCASET5.UFM and apply these factors. This gives:
PM26LOW.UFM (13625 trips)
PM26HIGH.UFM (16546 trips)
Calculation of Development Trips
2011 Developments
The following section describes the construction of the AM Peak housing development matrix. Once this was done, it was simply transposed to create the PM Peak housing matrix.
Creating 2011 AM Peak Housing Trips Matrix
The current matrix has 76 zones. Some zone distributions were copied into other zones to create development trip distributions. Once these were established, the housing zones were factored (using furnessing) to achieve the required trip-ends.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 61 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
As each zone contained trips, the following method was used:
• Create 20 new zones to represent each of the zones including new housing developments. These were numbered 77-96.
Table 1, below lists the 20 Development Zones that will contain housing development trips. The Parent Zones are those that provide the required distribution. Where more than one parent zone is listed, they were both copied to the temporary zone representing that development.
Table 1
Development Parent Zones Temp Zone Zone 1 8 77 7 8 78 10 9 79 14 8 80 15 18 81 22 23 82 23 23 83 25 25 84 28 28 85 29 29 86 34 34 87 36 36 88 38 38 89 39 70 90 41 41 91 42 42 92 70 39 93 74 70 94 75 75 95 76 76 96
• Copy the parent zones to the relevant Temp zones, e.g. copy zone 8 to zone 77. • Once these are copied, factor zones 1-76 by 0.00. • Next, apply factors to temp zone rows and columns 77-96 to achieve desired in and out trips to / from housing developments. These are detailed in the project file. • Check how much this has reduced the column totals, then apply whatever factors are required to reduce these new column totals down to the desired in-trips to housing developments. • Then copy Temp zones 77-96 back to Development Zones, e.g. copy zone 77 to zone 1, copy zone 78 to zone 7 etc. • Finally, delete zones 77-96. • This leaves a matrix of housing development trips called AMHOUSING76Z.UFM • For PM housing, simply transpose the AM matrix and name the output file PMHOUSING76Z.UFM.
Madley Park Non-housing developments
There are five land uses proposed (pub, two shops, Co-op, two takeaways, meeting hall). It is assumed that 50% of trips to / from these land-uses will be non-vehicular as they serve the local area. The remainder will be to / from local zones only (37-42 & 72-74). Planning details were supplied by West Oxfordshire District Council and trip rates were taken from TRICS.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 62 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
As this only involved trips to / from zones 39 & 70, the simplest method was to screen edit the trips into an empty matrix. The output matrices were AM11MADPKOTHERS.UFM (26.90 pcus) and PM11MADPKOTHERS.UFM (97.54 pcus).
Marriots Close Development
All new non-housing trips are to / from zone 7 (also the Welch Way car park). Trip rates for the development which includes cinema, shops and restaurants, were taken from TRICS. The existing distribution of trips using the car park was deemed appropriate to use for the Marriots Close development trips. Furnessing was therefore used on zone 7 to obtain the desired trip totals. The output matrices were AM11MARRIOTS.UFM (156.11 pcus) and PM11MARRIOTS.UFM (315.33 pcus).
Sainsbury’s Expansion
Similar to the Marriots Close development, the existing Sainsbury’s zone (19) simply uses the existing distribution for the newly generated trips to / from this site. The new Sainsbury’s trips are contained in the matrices AM11SAINSURYS.UFM (139.27 pcus) and PM11SAINSBURYS.UFM (330.34 pcus).
To create the final 2011 AM and PM Peak development matrices, the following matrices were added together:
AM11HOUSING76Z.UFM AM11MADPKOTHERS.UFM AM11MARRIOTS.UFM AM11SAINSBURYS.UFM Output filename: AM11DEVS.UFM (876.26 pcus)
PM11HOUSING76Z.UFM PM11MADPKOTHERS.UFM PM11MARRIOTS.UFM PM11SAINSBURYS.UFM Output filename: PM11DEVS.UFM (1297.20 pcus)
To obtain the full 2011 reference case matrices (using TEMPRO 4.3.2):
AM11NONDEV.UFM + AM11DEVS.UFM = AM11REFCASE.UFM (13544) PM11NONDEV.UFM + PM11DEVS.UFM = PM11REFCASE.UFM (14041)
These reference case matrices were used for the screening of options exercise, however it was still necessary to create high and low growth matrices from these for the full forecasting. These were created from the TEMPRO 5 versions of the reference case matrices, as this was released after the screening was completed.
Note:
When producing forecasts of future years using the updated Witney traffic model, a number of assumptions were made in terms of development likely to take place in the area. These assumptions were based on the latest available figures or predictions from the District Council. For the Marriotts Close development, factors such as retail floor space areas, numbers of residential units, size of the cinema and number of parking spaces to be provided were used to predict trips to and from the development. The figures that were used at the time of undertaking this work came from the pre application discussions that were taking place with the County Council. Although some of the retail floor spaces have decreased very slightly in the submitted application we feel that the figures used still provide a robust assessment of the journeys likely to arise from the development and indeed represent a slightly worse case scenario.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 63 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
2011 – 2026 Developments
According to OCC, there will be a maximum of 800 houses built at North Curbridge (zone 69) from 2011 onwards. There will be additional district centre developments within this zone too.
The North Curbridge housing trips were added to the matrix by copying the distribution patterns of the adjacent residential zones 29 and 30, then furnessing these trips to target trip-end totals derived from appropriate trip-rates. The 2005 base matrices were used to create AMZONES2930.UFM and PMZONES2930.UFM which contained only the trips in zones 29 and 30. These trips were then all moved into zone 69 to give the distribution matrices AMNCURBDISTRIB.UFM and PMNCURBDISTRIB.UFM.
As with the 2011 matrix, housing trip rates were taken from the 2002 Witney Transport Evaluation Report. These are:
• AM inbound: 0.064 • AM outbound: 0.343 • PM inbound: 0.343 • PM outbound: 0.064
For a maximum of 800 dwellings, this gave the following trip generations:
AM in AM out PM in PM out North Curbridge: 51.20 274.40 274.40 51.20
The distribution matrices (above) were then furnessed to these totals to give the North Curbridge housing matrices AM26NCURBRIDGEHOUSING.UFM and PM26NCURBRIDGEHOUSING.UFM
Finally, the North Curbridge District Centre was added. As with the Madley Park District Centre, it was assumed that trips associated with this would come from local zones and that 50% will be within the zone itself and will not therefore be added to the pcu matrix.
Details of the District Centre are a little unclear for a development so far into the future; therefore the assumptions set out in Table 2 below are a mixture based on details from the Local Plan and a framework from the developer Barton Wilmore. Where details are common to both, they are included, otherwise, a mixture is assumed.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 64 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Table 2
Development site GFA sqm Zone AM In AM Out PM In PM Out Zone No Trip Rate 5.02 4.15 0.19 0.34 69 Primary School 1674 42.02 34.74 1.59 2.85 Trip Rate 1.06 0.13 0.13 0.89 69 5 Ha Business Park 50000 265.00 32.50 32.50 222.50 Trip Rate 0.59 0.21 0.14 0.49 69 5 Ha Industrial Estate 50000 147.50 52.50 35.00 122.50 Trip Rate 8.64 7.31 10.5 11.56 69 Shops 753 32.53 27.52 39.53 43.52 Trip Rate 23.62 14.06 41.88 42.46 69 Leisure facilities 17000 20.08 11.95 35.60 36.09 Trip Rate 1.4 1 1.2 1.8 69 Health facilities 500 3.50 2.50 3.00 4.50 Trip Rate 0.25 0.34 0.42 0.24 69 Hotel 3534 8.84 12.02 14.84 8.48 TOTAL 371.96 121.22 127.06 317.94
* All trips (except hotel) shown were factored by 50% to represent an assumed proportion of local (intra) trips
Although trips are listed for the Primary School, these were not added to the matrix as the assumption was the same as for the Madley Park school whereby all trips are local. The Gross Floor Areas (GFA) are averages taken from modest sized developments in TRICS, although the figure of 10 Ha (100,000 sq.m.) for mixed B1/B2 development was supplied by West Oxfordshire DC.
As with Madley Park, leisure, health and local shop facilities will attract trips from local zones, therefore trips to and from these land uses were split equally between nearby zones 28, 29, 30, 31, 32 & 68.
All developments were added to the matrix by copying an appropriate distribution and then furnessing rows and columns to the desired total. All individual development matrices, including those for housing, were then added together.
Health centre, leisure centre and local shops trips
These all took distributions from nearby zones, therefore trip-ends from the three land-uses could be added together to form target totals.
AM In AM Out PM In PM Out 56.11 41.97 78.13 84.11
These trips were to be split equally between zones 28, 29, 30, 31, 32 & 68. The split per zone therefore is:
AM In AM Out PM In PM Out 9.35 7.00 13.02 14.02
These were then added to zone 69 via screen editing.
Output: AM26NCshopsleisurehealth.ufm (98.10 trips) Output: PM26NCshopsleisurehealth.ufm (162.24 trips)
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 65 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Hotel trips
Trips to and from the hotel are unlikely to be limited to local zones, although some assumption for staff living locally has been made. It was therefore assumed that 20% of hotel trips are to / from local zones. Other hotel trips are less likely to be to or from Witney; therefore a sensible way of allocating these was to split the remainder between A40 E (zone 62) and A40 W (zone 65) zones.
Total Hotel Trips are:
AM In AM Out PM In PM Out 8.84 12.02 14.84 8.48
With 20% assumed to be split between zones 28, 29, 30, 31, 32 & 68, this breaks down as:
AM In AM Out PM In PM Out 0.30 040 0.50 0.28
A40 West (Zone 65) will then take 40% of the total:
AM In AM Out PM In PM Out 3.54 4.81 5.94 3.39
And A40 East (Zone 62) will take the remaining 40% of the total:
AM In AM Out PM In PM Out 3.54 4.81 5.94 3.39
Output AM26NChotel.ufm (20.90 trips) Output PM26NChotel.ufm (23.34 trips)
Business Park / Industrial Estate trips
The business park is a major trip generator; therefore the base year distributions from nearby industrial zones 32 and 68 were combined and copied into zone 69 before furnessing to the desired totals. After discussions with WODC, it was agreed to assume a 50-50 split (5Ha each) between the Business Park and Industrial Estate categories in TRICS.
The distribution matrices are:
AMNCEMPLOYMENTDISTRIB.UFM and PMNCEMPLOYMENTDISTRIB.UFM
These two distribution matrices were then furnessed to achieve the following trip totals for 2026 employment.
AM Peak In: 412.50 AM Peak Out: 85.00 PM Peak In: 67.50 PM Peak Out: 345.00
Output final 2026 North Curbridge employment matrices AM26NCEMPLOYMENT.UFM and PM26NCEMPLOYMENT.UFM
Add all these individual development matrices together to create a final 2026 Developments matrix:
(AM26NCurbridgehousing.ufm + AM26NCshopsleisurehealth.ufm + AM26NChotel.ufm + AM26NCemployment.ufm) = AM26DEVS.UFM (941.10)
(PM26NCurbridgehousing.ufm + PM26NCshopsleisurehealth.ufm + PM26NChotel.ufm + PM26NCemployment.ufm) = PM26DEVS.UFM (923.67)
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 66 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Appendix B
Assessment of Induced Traffic using DIADEM
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 67 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
Variable Demand Modelling using D.I.A.D.E.M.
Variable demand modelling should be considered in modelling exercises, to ascertain whether the possible effects would influence the design or implementation of a scheme. These effects are those not accounted for by standard fixed-trip modelling, such as trip frequency, trip distribution, time period choice and mode choice. These form a response hierarchy, which takes account of the sensitivity of each response in relation to the others. Those higher in the hierarchy are calculated based on those lower down.
Indicative descriptions of the responses are given as follows:
• Trip frequency – These are trips generated by changes in travel cost. • Trip distribution – The distribution model estimates the number of trips between all zone pairs. • Time period choice – Changes in the departure time based on changes in travel costs. • Mode choice – Changes in choice of travel mode based on changes in travel costs.
DIADEM is a new software package that calculates variable demand responses. As the Witney Traffic Model was built using SATURN software, it can be interfaced directly with DIADEM. It consists of two one-hour peak models and assignments use fixed trip all-vehicle single purpose matrices in passenger car units (PCUs). It does not include multi-modal or off-peak data.
DIADEM was applied to the 2011 Do Minimum PM peak high growth scenario as well as the CLR and SGSR Do-Something options for the same time period and growth. Earlier tests on the AM peak models had revealed no significant impacts with any parameters used. The PM model was therefore used for this analysis as it contains more trips. The PM matrix, with intra-zonal (i.e. trips that start and end in the same zone) trips removed, was used as a single “demand segment”. This refers to a particular purpose / person type combination. This matrix had been built using fuel and income factors (see Appendix A), therefore no variation of cost coefficients was used between reference and forecast demand. These refer to differing points on the demand curve that are defined by consideration of changes in generalised cost.
The DIADEM runs incorporated the following:
1. Distribution – doubly constrained using the mid-value for Home-Based Work (HBW) trips as LAMBDA. This is the spread parameter which is defined for the choice at the bottom of the hierarchy. 2. Frequency (the frequency scaling parameter was set to the maximum value of 1)
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 68 Oxfordshire Highways Cogges Link Road Traffic Modelling Forecast Report
The frequency response was used to test the probable significance of all other responses (i.e. those except distribution). All runs were pivoted off the base, meaning the input reference demand was adjusted based on the differences between the reference and actual forecast costs. DIADEM runs are programmed to finish at given criteria. Five iterations were used for this.
The results were analysed by comparing with the fixed-matrix forecasts. There were very few flow changes in excess of 100 pcus, which in modelling terms is of minimal significance. Within the fully-observed area of the model, this only occurred on Avenue One (leading into Station Road) in the CLR scenario and on Burford Road/Deer Park Road in the SGSR alternative. The Do-Minimum option had no flow changes over 100 within the fully modelled area, with the only instances recorded externally on the A40.
Table B1 below illustrates the low levels of flow change that occur on key links in the town centre as a result of the DIADEM analysis.
Table B1 – Changes to flows on key links following DIADEM analysis Direction Do Minimum CLR SGSR Newland Eastbound -26 - 9 -26 Westbound -25 9 -14 Woodgreen Northbound -16 2 2 Southbound -40 - 6 -19 Bridge Street Northbound - 2 -10 - 4 Southbound -31 -12 -40 High Street (N) Northbound -13 -14 - 2 Southbound -46 0 8 Witan Way (N) Northbound -25 13 22 Southbound - 7 - 9 - 5
Conclusions
This analysis has demonstrated that the application of variable demand modelling produces negligible changes in the Witney Traffic Model. The figures shown above are more typical of the normal fluctuations that occur on a day-to-day basis in any town centre, and as such do not represent a significant level of change in modelling terms.
B0834600/Doc/PA/CLR/04 69