The USAID Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) (Réseau USAID du Système d’Alerte Précoce contre la Famine) 01 BP 1615 01, , West Africa Tel/Fax: 226-31-46-74. Email: [email protected]

STATE OF FOOD SECURITY IN BURKINA FASO FEWS NET UPDATE FOR JANUARY-FEBRUARY, 2001

February 25, 2001

HIGHLIGHTS

Food insecurity continues to worsen in the center plateau, north, and Sahel regions, prompting the government to call for distributions and subsidized sales of food between February and August in food insecure areas.

Basic food commodities remained available throughout the country in February. Millet, the key food staple, showed no price movements that would suggest unusual scarcities in the main markets compared to prices in February 2000 or average February prices. Nevertheless, millet prices rose 40-85 % above prices a year ago in secondary markets in the north and Sahel regions, respectively. These sharp price rises stem from the drop in cereal production in October-November following the abrupt end of the rains in mid-August. Unfortunately, the lack of good roads reduces trader incentives to supply cereals to those areas. Consequently, prices have been increasing quickly due to increasing demand from households that did not harvest enough.

Throughout the north and Sahel regions, most households generally depend on the livestock as their main source of income. Ironically this year, when millet prices are rising, most animal prices have fallen drastically due to severe shortages of water and forage. To make matters worse, animal exports to Ivory Coast, which used to be a very profitable business, are no longer a viable option following the ethnic violence that erupted in that country a few months ago. Most livestock exporters are Burkinabè citizens who cannot travel any more to Ivory Coast. Even if this decline in livestock exports turns out to be temporary, it has cut off a critical source of revenue that livestock producing households need, particularly now. For all these reasons, livestock prices in the north and Sahel are no longer high enough to ensure an adequate income for many average households. This is a critical factor that explains why food insecurity conditions have gradually been worsening in these regions.

In light of this situation, the Ministry of Social Affairs, speaking on behalf of the government, has recently urged the donor community to assist with as much as 10,200 MT of cereals for free distribution in food insecure areas between February and August. In addition, the government said it would consider selling at least 54,777 MT of cereals at a subsidized price between February and August to assist households in greatest need. In sum, the government anticipates making available about 65,000 MT of cereals for the poorest households. With these measures, the government hopes to remedy the current food insecurity before too long. Such a food distribution and sales program is estimated to cost about 10.5 billion CFA Francs.

In reply to the government’s appeal for help, most donors are taking a wait-and-see approach. Some are skeptical of the government’s figures on which its appeal is based. Consequently, the donor response is unclear.

Given that, FEWS NET highly recommends that a joint government-partner team of experts be quickly commissioned to reassess the food security situation in the country. If such a team were commissioned, chances are good that many of the controversies that surround the government’s figures could be resolved. In addition, assessing conditions jointly would help to reach a consensus on which groups and locations need to be considered for appropriate assistance.

1. Current Food Security Status

1.1. Food Availability

Staple foods remain available throughout the country. Most major markets continued to be well stocked with cereals, tubers as well as various vegetables and legumes. Nevertheless, food supplies at the household level have gradually been declining, especially in the center plateau, north and Sahel regions where the harvest was severely compromised by the abrupt halt of rainfall in mid-August. When the rains stopped, most crops in these regions did no complete their growth cycle as expected and yields dropped. Consequently, many households harvested inadequate levels food to meet their needs.

Figure 1. Food Insecure Areas in 2000/01 Food insecure Source: Adapted from Ministry of Agriculture OUDALAN Food secure

SOUM

YATENGA SENO BAM

SANMATENGA NAMENTENGA SOUROU PASSORE GNAGNA

KOSSI OUBRITENGA

BOULKIEMDEKADIOGO SANGUIE GANZOURGOU KOURITENGA MOUHOUN TAPOA BAZEGA GOURMA

ZOUNDWEOGO KENEDOUGOU SISSILI BOULGOU HOUET NAHOURI BOUGOURIBA

COMOE

PONI

KM

0 50 100

x

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A recent evaluation by an inter-ministerial committee indicates that Burkina Faso could face a net cereal production deficit of about 442,000 MT this year. This inter-ministerial committee also predicts that at least 1.1 million people from 31 provinces of 45 would go hungry without supplementary food assistance. Although these figures were higher than most expectations, the government contends that these findings were based on their post-harvest assessment, which is likely to better match the reality in the field than the pre-harvest estimate. By comparison, the FEWS NET Update for December 25 reported a gross cereal production deficit of 223,500 MT, based on Ministry of Agriculture estimates, and a net deficit of 82,000 MT after taking imports into account.

Figure 1 shows the government’s view of highly food insecure provinces. These include the Center Plateau, North, Sahel, East, Center North, and Center West.

In light of this situation, the government asked the donor community in February to assist with about 65,000 MT of food aid for the needy between now February and August. Of this, 10,000 MT will be used for free distribution while leaving the remaining 55,000 MT for sales at subsidized prices for the needy.

In spite of the government’s appeal, reactions so far from the donor community have been ambiguous or lukewarm at best. Most donors and development partners are asking for further details on the exact areas or population groups affected before making any decisions about assistance. In the coming weeks, FEWS NET will gather additional information through field trips to facilitate decision-making by the donor community.

1.2. Food Accessibility

Millet is the main staple for Burkinabè and millet prices act as a barometer of most cereal prices in Burkina Faso. Hence, the level of millet prices offers insight into food accessibility.

Figure 2. Comparison of Nominal Retail Millet Prices in February in Main Markets: Average (1995-99), 2000 and 2001

150 Average 2000 2001

100

50 CFA Francs per kg

0 Bobo Dori Fada Ouagadougou Average 112 125 104 105 119 2000 109 112 76 93 105 2001 105 120 107 118 118

FEWS NET/Burkina Faso Source: SIM and FEWS NET

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Figure 2 compares average retail millet prices in February 2001 with those in February 2000 and the five- year average (1995-99) in five main markets. For the most part, price changes in the main markets do not indicate unusual scarcities.

Except for Bobodioulasso, prices in February 2001 are consistently higher than prices in February 2000; lower prices last year reflect the record harvest of 2.7 million MT in October-November 1999. Fada N’Gourma registered the largest price increase, 40.8 percent, between February 2001 and February 2000. However, its price of CFA F 107 per kilogram is the lowest among the other markets except for the Bobo price of CFA F 105 per kilogram.

Comparing February 2001 prices with average February prices shows that prices this year were below average in Bobo or near average (within ±5 percent) in Dori, Fada and Ouagadougou, but noticeably above average in Ouahigouya (North region, 12.4 percent). Prices in Ouahigouya are both higher than average and higher than last year and could signal tighter supplies as well as a deterioration in purchasing power, other factors equal.

Figure 3 shows changes in monthly average millet prices during the harvest and post-harvest period between October 2000 and February 2001 (average February prices are shown again for comparison). Millet prices decreased between January and February in Bobo and Dori. Prices in Fada climbed in February but remain relatively low. Prices in Ouahigouya jumped 20.4 percent between January and February but Ouahigouya prices are the same as Ouagadougou prices that increased by a modest 3.5 percent.

Figure 3. Changes in Post-Harvest Retail Millet Prices in Main Markets: October 2000-February 2001 and February Average

160 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Dec 2000 Jan 2001 Feb 2001 February Ave

140

120

100 CFA Francs per kg

80

60 Bobo Dori Fada Ouahigouya Ouagadougou

FEWS NET/Burkina Faso Source: SIM and FEWS NET

Prices appear to have been comparatively stable for most of the period in Bobo and Ouagadougou but increasing elsewhere. Dori prices reached CFA F 142 per kilo in January, but dropped to CFA F 120 in February, similar to CFA F 118 in both Ouahigouya and Ouagadougou.

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These price movements are not great or abnormal for a below-average production year. Given that most millet prices are at or below average levels, millet appears to be reasonably affordable in the main markets. Yet, it will be necessary to keep a close watch on price changes as the post-harvest season progresses.

A final graph, Figure 4, compares February 2001 prices with February 2000 prices in secondary markets in areas where crop yields dropped after the rains halted in mid-August — Sebba (), Markoye () and Djibo (). Ouahigouya () prices are repeated for comparison.

Figure 4. Inter-Annual Comparison of Millet Prices in Secondary Markets in Areas of Poor Harvests: February 2000 and February 2001

210

180

150

120 CFA Francs per kg

90

60 Ouahigouya Sebba Markoye Djibo

FEWS NET/Burkina Faso Source: FEWS NET and SIM

These inter-annual price increases are more dramatic. Prices increased 47.1 percent in Djibo to CFA F 125 per kilogram; 71.4 percent in Markoye to CFA F 180 and 85.0 percent in Sebba to CFA F 185. By comparison, Ouahigouya prices rose 26.9 percent to CFA F 118.

It is possible that some farm households are getting higher prices for their millet in the short run. However, lower production offsets higher prices and could mean decreasing total income for average households in poor harvest areas compared to one year ago, all factors equal. Moreover, in the absence of other information, it is not clear whether farmers or traders captured these higher prices. Traders have the advantage of mobility, ready cash and, presumably, better market information. This advantage enables them to aggressively carry out price arbitrage, buying low and selling high. It is possible that traders benefited from these price increases more than farmers.

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Looking only at millet prices gives a partial picture. A better picture, with sufficient data, would be a comparison of total household income to total household expenditures or to the minimum cost of a basket of household consumption goods, by location and socio-economic group. It is also necessary to understand the ability of households in each socio-economic group to make adjustments in expenditures in light of higher food staple prices

Higher millet prices appear to be further aggravated by significantly depressed market prices for livestock in localities where severe shortages of water and forage have forced many herders and agro-pastoralists to sell their animals at a loss. Quantitative livestock price data are not available on a regular basis but field offices of the Ministry of Livestock Resources contacted by FEWS NET in late February confirmed these poor market prices.

Another factor that has contributed to reduced income for most households in the north and Sahel regions stems from the sharp drop in live animal exports to Ivory Coast. This trade is no longer a viable following the ethnic violence that erupted in that country a few months ago. The combined effect from all these factors has contributed into the ongoing collapse of livestock prices across the north and Sahel regions.

In short, food access conditions have noticeably worsened during the past several months for most of the north and Sahel regions.

2. Hazard Information

2.1. Lack of water and forage continues to be a major concern for pastoral and agro- pastoral populations in the North and Sahel Regions of Burkina Faso

As reported last month, the severe shortages of water as well as forage continues to be a major concern for most agro-pastoral and pastoral populations in the North and Sahel regions, respectively. Although the Ministry of Social Affairs has promised to distribute crop by-products as livestock feed and dig wells to procure adequate water for both men and livestock needs, not much action has taken place, however. Consequently, each day that goes by without relief measures increases the level of hardship for people and their animals. Those who can still afford going into transhumance have already begun moving away from the dry areas in search for more favorable grazing and watering conditions toward the Benin or Malian borders.

In the meantime, the lack of water has become so critical in some localities that many farmers were said to be prematurely harvesting their off-season crops (such as tomatoes, onions, cabbage, and carrots). In the absence of water, farmers have little choice but to harvest their produce very early rather than to try waiting longer at the risk of loosing the entire crop altogether. Unfortunately, prematurely harvested crops, especially horticultural crops, usually have less marketable] and nutritious value than mature crops.

In light of this situation, FEWS NET believes that an objective assessment of impact and needs as well as a close targeting of highly food insecure people ought to be carried out soon by a joint government- partner team of experts. . This would probably be one of the most effective ways of examining the situation while avoiding getting bogged down in unnecessary differences in interpretations, which only contribute to further delays in providing appropriate assistance for the needy.

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2.2. Flow of Burkinabè from Ivory Coast Continues

Burkinabè continue to return home to escape the ethnic tension and occasional violence against foreigners in Côte d’Ivoire. Although the number of returnees is not known, the Ministry of Social Affairs estimates that about 30, 000 Burkinabè have returned since the election-related turmoil surfaced in November 2000. This number may be conservative.

While returnees are welcomed by their families and communities, the sudden presence of at least 30,000 additional people following a below-average cereal harvest in Burkina Faso is starting to be felt in terms of greater demand for housing, school enrollment and food staples. Moreover, not all returnees have been absorbed into the Burkina economy and many were forced to leave their businesses behind. Returnees have not lost their entrepreneurial skills, but many do not have sufficient capital to start or invest in new businesses in Burkina Faso. As a result, many returnees remain unemployed or underemployed and an economic burden on their hosts.

Although many Burkinabè used to work in the cocoa harvest in Ivory Coast, about to begin, there are no signs of easing tensions that would allow them to go back.

3. Response Plan Updates

In light of the worsening food insecurity conditions in the center plateau, north, and Sahel regions, the Government in early February requested the donor community to assist with about 10,202 MT of cereals for free distribution to low-income families between February and August. In addition, the Ministry of Social Affairs said it would consider selling at least 54,777 MT of cereals at a subsidized price to the people in food insecure localities between February and August. Thus, in terms of response plans, the government anticipates making available about 65, 000 MT of cereals for low-income or food insecure families between February and August. The overall cost for this food assistance program is estimated at about 10.5 billion CFA Francs. Nevertheless, whether the donor community will favorably respond to the government’s appeal remains to be seen. As of late February, most partners were somewhat skeptical about the statistics advanced by the Government in terms of the extent of food insecurity as well as the amount of assistance required to remedy the situation.

Given that, FEWSNET highly recommends that a joint government-partner team of experts be quickly put in place to re-assess the situation. This is necessary to help dissipate some of the continuing controversy since the release of government statistics on the cereals deficit and food security situation in February.

4. Update on Vulnerable Areas

Highly food insecure groups or people experiencing severe hardships as of February include: · North region: Kain, Bahn, Sollé, Kalsaka, Rambo, Kossouka Departments; and · East region: Gnagn, Tapoa, Komandjari and Gourma Provinces. In the , localities that appeared to be most food insecure included Matiacoali, Yamba, Tibga, and parts of the urban center in Fada. · The situation in all other areas or localities considered as food insecure in January remained practically unchanged as of February.

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In light of the worsening food access conditions during the past several months for most of the north and Sahel regions, FEWSNET recommends that the government services in charge of food security carry out a thorough assessment of the situation without delay so that appropriate assistance can be given to food insecure groups. FEWS NET recommends that several NGOs and other partners concerned with food security in Burkina Faso be invited to participate. Indeed, carrying out such a joint assessment could help resolve many of the controversies that surround the government’s figures. In addition, assessing conditions jointly would help to reach a credible consensus on which groups and locations need to be considered for appropriate assistance, paving the way for a faster and more appropriate assistance by the donor community in favor of the needy.

Close monitoring of the situation throughout the country will remain highest among FEWSNET priorities during the months ahead.

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