The USAID Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) (Réseau USAID du Système d’Alerte Précoce contre la Famine) 01 BP 1615 Ouagadougou 01, Burkina Faso, West Africa Tel/Fax: 226-31-46-74. Email: [email protected] STATE OF FOOD SECURITY IN BURKINA FASO FEWS NET UPDATE FOR JANUARY-FEBRUARY, 2001 February 25, 2001 HIGHLIGHTS Food insecurity continues to worsen in the center plateau, north, and Sahel regions, prompting the government to call for distributions and subsidized sales of food between February and August in food insecure areas. Basic food commodities remained available throughout the country in February. Millet, the key food staple, showed no price movements that would suggest unusual scarcities in the main markets compared to prices in February 2000 or average February prices. Nevertheless, millet prices rose 40-85 % above prices a year ago in secondary markets in the north and Sahel regions, respectively. These sharp price rises stem from the drop in cereal production in October-November following the abrupt end of the rains in mid-August. Unfortunately, the lack of good roads reduces trader incentives to supply cereals to those areas. Consequently, prices have been increasing quickly due to increasing demand from households that did not harvest enough. Throughout the north and Sahel regions, most households generally depend on the livestock as their main source of income. Ironically this year, when millet prices are rising, most animal prices have fallen drastically due to severe shortages of water and forage. To make matters worse, animal exports to Ivory Coast, which used to be a very profitable business, are no longer a viable option following the ethnic violence that erupted in that country a few months ago. Most livestock exporters are Burkinabè citizens who cannot travel any more to Ivory Coast. Even if this decline in livestock exports turns out to be temporary, it has cut off a critical source of revenue that livestock producing households need, particularly now. For all these reasons, livestock prices in the north and Sahel regions of Burkina Faso are no longer high enough to ensure an adequate income for many average households. This is a critical factor that explains why food insecurity conditions have gradually been worsening in these regions. In light of this situation, the Ministry of Social Affairs, speaking on behalf of the government, has recently urged the donor community to assist with as much as 10,200 MT of cereals for free distribution in food insecure areas between February and August. In addition, the government said it would consider selling at least 54,777 MT of cereals at a subsidized price between February and August to assist households in greatest need. In sum, the government anticipates making available about 65,000 MT of cereals for the poorest households. With these measures, the government hopes to remedy the current food insecurity before too long. Such a food distribution and sales program is estimated to cost about 10.5 billion CFA Francs. In reply to the government’s appeal for help, most donors are taking a wait-and-see approach. Some are skeptical of the government’s figures on which its appeal is based. Consequently, the donor response is unclear. Given that, FEWS NET highly recommends that a joint government-partner team of experts be quickly commissioned to reassess the food security situation in the country. If such a team were commissioned, chances are good that many of the controversies that surround the government’s figures could be resolved. In addition, assessing conditions jointly would help to reach a consensus on which groups and locations need to be considered for appropriate assistance. 1. Current Food Security Status 1.1. Food Availability Staple foods remain available throughout the country. Most major markets continued to be well stocked with cereals, tubers as well as various vegetables and legumes. Nevertheless, food supplies at the household level have gradually been declining, especially in the center plateau, north and Sahel regions where the harvest was severely compromised by the abrupt halt of rainfall in mid-August. When the rains stopped, most crops in these regions did no complete their growth cycle as expected and yields dropped. Consequently, many households harvested inadequate levels food to meet their needs. Figure 1. Food Insecure Areas in 2000/01 Food insecure Source: Adapted from Ministry of Agriculture OUDALAN Food secure SOUM YATENGA SENO BAM SANMATENGA NAMENTENGA SOUROU PASSORE GNAGNA KOSSI OUBRITENGA BOULKIEMDEKADIOGO SANGUIE GANZOURGOU KOURITENGA MOUHOUN TAPOA BAZEGA GOURMA ZOUNDWEOGO KENEDOUGOU SISSILI BOULGOU HOUET NAHOURI BOUGOURIBA COMOE PONI KM 0 50 100 x 2 A recent evaluation by an inter-ministerial committee indicates that Burkina Faso could face a net cereal production deficit of about 442,000 MT this year. This inter-ministerial committee also predicts that at least 1.1 million people from 31 provinces of 45 would go hungry without supplementary food assistance. Although these figures were higher than most expectations, the government contends that these findings were based on their post-harvest assessment, which is likely to better match the reality in the field than the pre-harvest estimate. By comparison, the FEWS NET Update for December 25 reported a gross cereal production deficit of 223,500 MT, based on Ministry of Agriculture estimates, and a net deficit of 82,000 MT after taking imports into account. Figure 1 shows the government’s view of highly food insecure provinces. These include the Center Plateau, North, Sahel, East, Center North, and Center West. In light of this situation, the government asked the donor community in February to assist with about 65,000 MT of food aid for the needy between now February and August. Of this, 10,000 MT will be used for free distribution while leaving the remaining 55,000 MT for sales at subsidized prices for the needy. In spite of the government’s appeal, reactions so far from the donor community have been ambiguous or lukewarm at best. Most donors and development partners are asking for further details on the exact areas or population groups affected before making any decisions about assistance. In the coming weeks, FEWS NET will gather additional information through field trips to facilitate decision-making by the donor community. 1.2. Food Accessibility Millet is the main staple for Burkinabè and millet prices act as a barometer of most cereal prices in Burkina Faso. Hence, the level of millet prices offers insight into food accessibility. Figure 2. Comparison of Nominal Retail Millet Prices in February in Main Markets: Average (1995-99), 2000 and 2001 150 Average 2000 2001 100 50 CFA Francs per kg 0 Bobo Dori Fada Ouahigouya Ouagadougou Average 112 125 104 105 119 2000 109 112 76 93 105 2001 105 120 107 118 118 FEWS NET/Burkina Faso Source: SIM and FEWS NET 3 Figure 2 compares average retail millet prices in February 2001 with those in February 2000 and the five- year average (1995-99) in five main markets. For the most part, price changes in the main markets do not indicate unusual scarcities. Except for Bobodioulasso, prices in February 2001 are consistently higher than prices in February 2000; lower prices last year reflect the record harvest of 2.7 million MT in October-November 1999. Fada N’Gourma registered the largest price increase, 40.8 percent, between February 2001 and February 2000. However, its price of CFA F 107 per kilogram is the lowest among the other markets except for the Bobo price of CFA F 105 per kilogram. Comparing February 2001 prices with average February prices shows that prices this year were below average in Bobo or near average (within ±5 percent) in Dori, Fada and Ouagadougou, but noticeably above average in Ouahigouya (North region, 12.4 percent). Prices in Ouahigouya are both higher than average and higher than last year and could signal tighter supplies as well as a deterioration in purchasing power, other factors equal. Figure 3 shows changes in monthly average millet prices during the harvest and post-harvest period between October 2000 and February 2001 (average February prices are shown again for comparison). Millet prices decreased between January and February in Bobo and Dori. Prices in Fada climbed in February but remain relatively low. Prices in Ouahigouya jumped 20.4 percent between January and February but Ouahigouya prices are the same as Ouagadougou prices that increased by a modest 3.5 percent. Figure 3. Changes in Post-Harvest Retail Millet Prices in Main Markets: October 2000-February 2001 and February Average 160 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Dec 2000 Jan 2001 Feb 2001 February Ave 140 120 100 CFA Francs per kg 80 60 Bobo Dori Fada Ouahigouya Ouagadougou FEWS NET/Burkina Faso Source: SIM and FEWS NET Prices appear to have been comparatively stable for most of the period in Bobo and Ouagadougou but increasing elsewhere. Dori prices reached CFA F 142 per kilo in January, but dropped to CFA F 120 in February, similar to CFA F 118 in both Ouahigouya and Ouagadougou. 4 These price movements are not great or abnormal for a below-average production year. Given that most millet prices are at or below average levels, millet appears to be reasonably affordable in the main markets. Yet, it will be necessary to keep a close watch on price changes as the post-harvest season progresses. A final graph, Figure 4, compares February 2001 prices with February 2000 prices in secondary markets in areas where crop yields dropped after the rains halted in mid-August — Sebba (Yagha Province), Markoye (Oudalan Province) and Djibo (Soum Province). Ouahigouya (Yatenga Province) prices are repeated for comparison. Figure 4.