1 QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF CONTESTED WATER USES AND 2 MANAGEMENT IN THE CONFLICT-TORN YARMOUK BASIN 1 2 3 4 3 Nicolas Avisse , Amaury Tilmant , David Rosenberg , and Samer Talozi 1 4 Ph.D., Department of Civil Engineering and Water Engineering, 1045 avenue de la Médecine, 5 Université Laval, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada (corresponding author). Email: 6
[email protected] 2 7 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering and Water Engineering, 1045 avenue de la Médecine, 8 Université Laval, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada. Email:
[email protected] 3 9 Associate Professor, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, 4110 Old Main Hill, 10 Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA. Email:
[email protected] 4 11 Associate Professor, Civil Engineering Department, Jordan University of Science and 12 Technology, Irbid 22110, Jordan. Email:
[email protected] 13 ABSTRACT 14 The Yarmouk River basin is shared between Syria, Jordan, and Israel. Since the 1960s, Yarmouk 15 River flows have declined more than 85% despite the signature of bilateral agreements. Syria and 16 Jordan blame each other for the decline and have both developed their own explanatory narratives: 17 Jordan considers that Syria violated their 1987 agreement by building more dams than what was 18 agreed on, while Syria blames climate change. In fact, as the two countries do not share information, 19 neither on hydrological flows nor on water management, it is increasingly difficult to distinguish 20 between natural and anthropogenic factors affecting the flow regime. Remote sensing and multi- 21 agent simulation are combined to carry out an independent, quantitative, analysis of Jordanian 22 and Syrian competing narratives and show that a third cause for which there is no provision in 23 the bilateral agreements actually explains much of the changes in the flow regime: groundwater 24 over-abstraction by Syrian highland farmers.