In Focus Presidential Elections in Argentina On 22 November 2015, Argentines elected the leader of the centre-right Cambiemos (Let’s Change) coalition, Mauricio Macri, as the country’s new President. The Cambiemos coalition comprises Macri’s centre-right Propuesta Republicana (Republican Proposal) party, the centre-left Radical Civic Union (UCR), and the centre-left Civic Coalition. Currently in his second term as Mayor of Buenos Aires, Macri narrowly defeated his rival, the leftist Daniel Scioli of the ‘Peronist’ Front for Victory (FPV) coalition in the second round run-off—the first in the country’s history—winning 51.4 percent of the vote. The Guardian suggests that Daniel Scioli’s loss to Macri is the “most significant defeat for a leftist candidate in South America for more than 10 years”. Background As noted by a number of commentators, Macri’s victory marks the end of the ‘Kirchner era’ in Argentina. For the past 12 years, the country has been governed by President (and leader of the FPV) Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, and her late husband and predecessor, Néstor Kirchner. The latter became President in 2003, following an economic crisis precipitated by the country’s sovereign default in 2001. Many commentators have credited the Kirchner administrations with the country’s economic recovery, particularly given that Néstor Kirchner was able to secure deals with most of Argentina’s creditors, increase employment and reduce inequality. However, the Kirchner and Fernández de Kirchner administrations have also been the subject of considerable criticism, with the Economist arguing that they governed with a “defiant populism that distorted the economy, made enemies at home and abroad and undermined institutions”. Other commentators note that voters had become increasingly “fatigued” with Fernández de Kirchner’s presidency, particularly due to ongoing economic problems and reports of corruption. After serving two consecutive terms in office, President Fernández de Kirchner was constitutionally required to stand down this year. Some observers have heralded President-elect Macri’s victory to replace her as the start of a new political era in the country, given that he is the first Presidential-elect who is not a part of the ‘Peronist’ movement in the post-dictatorship era. Arguably the dominant political movement in the country, The Economist describes so-called Peronism as a “vague blend of nationalism, and labourism”, comprising the ‘three banners’ of political sovereignty, economic independence and social justice. The movement consists of many coalitions, parties and factions, including the FPV and Sergio Massa’s United for a New Alternative (UNA) coalition. UK relations with Argentina have often focused on the ongoing sovereignty dispute over the Falkland Islands in the south-west Atlantic. In 1994, the Argentine constitution was amended to proclaim its Samuel White LIF 2015/0055 2 December 2015 sovereignty over the islands. Both Kirchner administrations continued to assert their country’s claim, calling for sovereignty negotiations and rejecting the British claim that the Falkland Islanders have the right to self-determination. In 2013, the Falkland Islands Government organised a referendum in which nearly all the islanders voted to remain a British overseas territory. The Telegraph reports that the Falklands dispute has played nearly no role in the Presidential campaign, however, because it would be “electoral suicide” for Argentine politicians to question the claim. Electoral System and Results Argentina has a three-stage process for its Presidential elections. The first is a compulsory open primary election, known as the PASO (Open, Simultaneous, and Obligatory Primaries), which was held on 9 August 2015. This stage allows voters to choose which electoral alliances will participate in the Presidential election. It is mandatory for political parties to participate in the stage, and voting is compulsory for citizens aged 18–69. Party alliances need to win at least 1.5 percent of the vote in order to advance to the first round of the Presidential ballot. The August poll saw eleven political alliances contest the primary, with Scioli’s Front for Victory alliance winning 38.4 percent of the vote, and Macri’s Let’s Change coalition coming second with 30.1 percent. Sergio Massa, heading the United for a New Alternative Peronist faction, came third with 20.6 percent. Three other political alliances won more than 1.5 percent of the vote, with Margarita Stolbizer (Progressives), Nicolás del Caño (Left Front), Adolfo Rodríguez Saá (Federal Commitment) proceeding to the first Presidential ballot. This was held on 25 October 2015, where candidates needed to win at least 45 percent of the vote, or 40 percent of the vote with a ten-point lead over their nearest rival to win outright. No candidate met this threshold, with Scioli winning 36.9 percent of the vote, Macri 34.3 percent and Massa 21.3 percent. Therefore a Presidential runoff was held between Scioli and Macri. Macri’s Challenges Argentina faces a number of economic challenges, including dealing with a widening fiscal deficit, high inflation, dwindling foreign exchange reserves, and the country’s isolation from international capital markets following its sovereign default in 2001. Indeed, the Congressional Research Service note that, while the previous administrations were able to negotiate debt restructuring deals in 2005 and 2010, a small group of private investors—known as the ‘holdouts’—did not participate in these deals and have sought full payment from Argentina for the losses they suffered due to the default (amounting to approximately $15 billion). In a press conference following his election, Macri suggested that existing currency controls “were a mistake”, and stated the need for an independent central bank. He also promised to rectify a lack of accurate information on the Argentine economy. The Financial Times also observes that Macri faces “considerable political challenges”, particularly given the lack of a Cambiemos majority in the Council of Deputies and the Senate, after the legislative elections on 22 October 2015. However, Macri has indicated an intention to strengthen ties with the United States, and also to challenge Venezuela’s human rights abuses by forcing it out of the Mercusor trade bloc. Regarding the territorial dispute with the UK over the Falkland Islands, the Guardian reports that Macri’s “outlook is less clear”, but it is anticipated he will “take a less strident position than his predecessor”. Library In Focus are compiled for the benefit of Members of the House of Lords and their personal staff, to provide impartial, politically balanced briefings on a selection of topical subjects. Authors are available to discuss the contents of the Notes with the Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public. Any comments on In Focus should be sent to the Head of Research Services, House of Lords Library, London, SW1A 0PW or emailed to [email protected]. .