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Alleviating Carmageddon with a Research-Driven Rapid Transit Approach

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Alleviating Carmageddon with a Research-Driven Rapid Transit Approach Alleviating Carmageddon with a research-driven Rapid Transit approach By Ian Michael Ollis MA University of Witwatersrand Johannesburg 2001 Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in City Planning at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY May 2020 © 2020 Ian Ollis. All Rights Reserved The author hereby grants to MIT the permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of the thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Author. ________________________________________________________________________ Department of Urban Studies and Planning May 18 2020 Certified by ____________________________________________________________________ Lecturer James Aloisi. Department of Urban Studies and Planning Thesis Supervisor Accepted by. ___________________________________________________________________ Ceasar McDowell Professor of the Practice Chair, MCP Committee Department of Urban Studies and Planning Alleviating Carmageddon with a research-driven Rapid Transit approach By Ian Michael Ollis Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning on 18 May, 2020, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in City Planning Abstract A growing number of cities and metropolitan areas in the United States are experiencing historically high rates of congestion on roads and highways. Many of the same places have extensive, although not always well maintained or efficiently operated, transit and Commuter Rail systems. Ridership has plateaued or declined on many of these systems, highlighting their currently limited attractiveness as a modal choice. Metropolitan Boston serves as a case study into what measures would be effective in inducing a meaningful level of mode shift from automobiles to rapid transit (rail) options. In 2019 four new reports identified Metro Boston as having some of the most congested roads in the nation. Motorists nevertheless continue to drive on these highly congested roads while a developed Commuter Rail, subway and bus transit system exist across the region. This thesis uses a standardized online questionnaire distributed to motorists across Massachusetts and Rhode Island to understand individual attitudes toward mode shift, and specifically using Rapid Transit instead of driving for their regular daily commute. It targets motorists on the 10 most congested corridors in Massachusetts. 402 completed questionnaires were received from ZIP Codes across Massachusetts and Rhode Island revealing individuals’ attitudes and feelings towards shifting to transit for their commute. Specific demographic considerations, other than geographical spread and origin and destination data, were not considered in this study. The findings indicate that the high level of free or subsidized parking provided across the study area draws Metro Boston commuters away from transit and that 63.7% of respondents would consider shifting to Rapid Transit if the cost of driving went up substantially (50% higher cost). Respondents further indicated that access & network limitations of the MBTA rail transit system, travel time by transit combination (including all legs of the trip), the transit system reliability, frequency of trains on a number of Commuter Rail routes and relatively high fare prices are considered factors preventing significant mode shift to transit. Thesis Supervisor: James Aloisi Title: Lecturer, Department of Urban Studies and Planning 2 Acknowledgments I wish to thank my thesis advisor, former Massachusetts Transportation Secretary, Jim Aloisi, for countless hours assisting me with clarifying my thoughts, keeping the survey on track and delivering a contribution to the realm of transportation research. I wish too to thank Dr. Anson Stewart, the senior reader of this thesis for making countless useful comments, suggestions and improvements to the research and writing, particularly with software choice and usage. I also wish to thank readers Professor Jinhua Zhao and the indomitable Fred Salvucci, former Massachusetts Transportation Secretary for giving input on readings, on the results and further areas for research. My thanks to the Jen Greenleaf, Kai Smith and the Rotch and MIT Interlibrary Loan staff for their assistance in finding texts and journals. Outside of the MIT family I wish to also acknowledge the help and assistance of the Central Transportation Planning Staff of the Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization for their assistance with data, advice and access to their reports. Finally I wish to thank the friends, family and classmates who have supported me in this endeavor. 3 Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................................ 5 List of Tables .............................................................................................................................. 6 Terms and Definitions ............................................................................................................... 7 1. Background ............................................................................................................................ 9 1.1 The Congestion Phenomenon and current state of play ........................................................ 9 1.2 Transit Ridership trends – National and Local .....................................................................10 1.3 Study Motivation and Research Questions .......................................................................... 12 2. Literature Review ................................................................................................................ 15 2.1 Accessibility & Network Convenience……………………................................................ 17 2.2 Service level, Comfort & Safety………………….............................................................. 27 2.3 Pricing & Taxes.................................................................................................................... 29 2.4 Multifactoral Research……………………………………………….………….……...….36 2.5 Literature Review Discussion and Conclusions................................................................... 39 3. Data and Survey Methodology ............................................................................................41 3.1 Metro Boston Survey ............................................................................................................41 3.2 The Survey Instrument .........................................................................................................44 4. Survey Findings and Analysis ............................................................................................ 45 4.1 Survey Statistics ……………………….......................................................................... 45 4.2 Analysis ................................................................................................................................46 5. GIS Mapping of Measures in the Study Area ....................................................................64 5.1 Mapping Methodology…….…………….............................................................................64 5.2 Mapping outcomes ...............................................................................................................65 5.3 Final GIS Analysis ...............................................................................................................81 6. Discussion ............................................................................................................................. 84 6.1 Key Findings ....................................................................................................................... 84 6.2 Discussion of Research Question ....................................................................................... 85 6.3 Policy Recommendations.................................................................................................... 87 6.4 Areas for Further Research ................................................................................................ 89 References ................................................................................................................................ 91 Appendix 1: Survey questionnaire instrument............................................................................97 Appendix 2: Home ZIP Codes of Respondents (HomeZip)…................................................ 100 Appendix 3: Work ZIP Codes of Respondents (WorkZip)….................................................. 105 Appendix 4: Coding of long form responses……………....................................................... 109 Appendix 5: COUHES approval ……………………............................................................. 111 4 List of Figures Figure 1. Map of Study area and Chosen Congested Roads.......................................................8 Figure 2. Ridership of the nine largest U.S. rail transit systems, minus New York..................10 Figure 3. Boston MBTA Heavy Rail ridership versus Boston population............................... 11 Figure 4: Comparison of Average Typical Weekday MBTA Ridership, 2003 vs 2018 ......... 11 Figure 5. Trimet Portland Oregon ridership numbers…………………………….…...….…..31 Figure 6. Distribution of Road Uses Indicated by Respondents………………………….…..46 Figure 7. GIS Map of Home ZIP Codes by Density
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