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Russian Real Estate Market Overview

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Russian Real Estate Market Overview Jones Lang LaSalle – Investment Outlook 1 Russian Real Estate Market Overview AEB, Moscow, September 2013 Jones Lang LaSalle – Investment Outlook 2 The Economy: Still outperforming GDP growth GDP per Capita in BRICS (PPP), 2012 9% Russia 17,665 6% 3.5 3% 2.5 South Africa 2.1 1.6 0% Brazil 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F -3% China -6% India -9% USD Russia Advanced Economies* European Union Finland 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 * 35 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong SAR, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan Province of China, United Kingdom, and the United States. Source: IHS Global Insight, Jones Lang LaSalle Jones Lang LaSalle – Investment Outlook 3 The New Normal: Growth Drivers are Changing Russian capacity utilization Revenues from income tax, Russia USD bn 70% 80 65% 70 60% 60 50 55% 40 50% 30 45% 20 40% 10 35% 0 Private sector foreign debt, Russia Russian international reserves vs. Urals oil price USD bn USD bn USD/bbl 400 600 150 350 500 125 300 400 100 250 200 300 75 150 200 50 100 100 25 50 0 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 International reserves, USD bn Urals oil price, USD/bbl (RHS) Source: Rosstat, Central Bank of Russia, Bloomberg, Russian Federal Treasury, Jones Lang LaSalle Jones Lang LaSalle – Investment Outlook 4 Balance Sheet: Supported by Prudent Fiscal Policy Government gross debt, % of GDP Budget balance dynamics 125% 9% 6% 100% 3% 75% 0% 50% -3% -6% 25% -9% 0% -12% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F USA Finland France Germany Russia UK Canada USA Japan Finland France Germany Russia UK Canada Government 5-year bond yield dynamics USD bn International reserves, 2013 15% 2,000 1,800 12% Hundreds 1,600 9% 1,400 1,200 6% 1,000 800 3% 600 400 0% 200 3,516 1,254 513 374 288 197 146 10 0 129 Russia Germany UK USA Finland Source: Central Bank of Russia, Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund, Oxford Economics Jones Lang LaSalle – Investment Outlook 5 Consumer Sector is a Major Driver of Growth… Retail sales and wages, YoY real growth Consumer loans issued in Russia USD bn 18% 70 80% 58% 53% 52% 54% 56% 51% 60 43% 60% 15% 38%39% 41% 32% 23% 40% 50 25% 22%22% 20% 16% 19% 12% 20% 40 9% 0% 30 6.0 -20% 6% 20 -45% -40% -48% 3% 5.0 10 -53% -60% -61% 0% 0 -80% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F -3% -6% Consumer loans issued, USD m Consumer loans growth (RUB), YoY % Retail sales Real wages Russian inflation vs. Refinancing rate Unemployment rate, 2012 15% Refinancing rate, % Spain 25.0% Greece 24.3% 12% Italy 10.7% EU 27 10.7% 9% 8% France 10.3% 7.5% 7.25% USA 8.1% 6% UK 7.9% 5.5% Finland 7.7% 4.5% 4.5% Russia 5.3% 3% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Source: Rosstat, Central Bank of Russia, IHS Global Insight, Ministry of Economic Development Jones Lang LaSalle – Investment Outlook 6 … and It Will Continue to Be So Retail spending as a share of total private spending in 2012 Household distribution by nominal income level expected in 2015 100% Italy 90% Germany 80% 70% UK 60% 50% Spain 40% Poland 30% 20% France 10% 0% Finland Russia 60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Less than $15,000 $15,000 to $25,000 $25,000 to $50,000 Above $50,000 Hundreds Maximum individual income tax: International comparison Household debt per adult, 2012 Russia 13% Russia 1,260 Brazil India Turkey Poland Poland USA UK Germany China France France Germany Finland Finland 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 USD Source: GfK Geomarketing, CEEMEA Business Group, KPMG, IHS Global Insight, Credit Suisse Wealth Databook (2012) Jones Lang LaSalle – Investment Outlook 7 Investment Volumes: Well beyond Crisis Investment volume dynamics, USD bn* Investment volume breakdown by sector USD bn % 10 100 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 8.5 8.7 90 8 7.5 80 70 6 60 5.1 4.9 50 4.0 3.9 40 4 3.2 30 2 20 0.8 10 0.1 0.3 0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 H1 2013 Office Retail Mixed Hotel Residential Industrial H1 2011 2011 H1 2012 2012 H1 2013 Real estate investment volume, USD m* 4,040 8,499 2,851 8,743 3,726 Moscow share 69% 69% 93% 88% 89% St. Petersburg share 25% 27% 3% 10% 4% * Investment deals, excluding land acquisitions, JVs, direct residential sales to end-users. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Jones Lang LaSalle – Investment Outlook 8 Source of Capital and Sector Interest Real estate investors by origin Investment volume breakdown by sector, 2012 – Q1 2013 100% (Russia – inside pie, Global – outside pie) 90% 80% 70% Hotel 60% 7% 50% Retail 40% Industrial 25% 30% 13% 20% 10% Hotel Industrial 0% Retail 6.0% 5.7% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 H1 2013 27.9% Mixed Mixed 3% China UK Canada USA Kazakhstan 14.2% Finland Global Other Confidential Russia Other Other 2% 6.7% Real estate investors by origin, 12-month moving average Office 100% 39.5% 80% 60% 40% Office 20% 50% 0% Russian Foreign Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Jones Lang LaSalle – Investment Outlook 9 Office Investment, H1 2013 Office investment volumes, USD m 4,000 3,331 3,500 3,000 2,392 2,503 2,336 2,000 1,836 1,147 1,215 1,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 H1 2013 Moscow St. Petersburg Regions Moscow market balance Prime rent dynamics St. Petersburg market balance '000 sq m % USD/sq m/year '000 sq m % 2,400 24 1,400 450 27 400 24 2,000 20 USD1,150 1,200 350 21 1,600 16 300 18 1,000 250 15 1,200 12 200 12 800 800 8 150 9 600 USD550 100 6 400 4 50 3 0 0 400 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 H1 2013 Take-up Completions Vacancy rate (RHS) Net absorption Completions Vacancy rate (RHS) Moscow St. Petersburg For European comparison see the Appendix. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Jones Lang LaSalle – Investment Outlook 10 Stock, Vacancy Rates and Base Rents Dynamics Stable market – flat rents and slowly declining vacancy rates Class A USD/USD/ Class B+ USD/ '000'000 sq sq m m Class A sqsq m/year m/year '000 sq m sq m/year 3,000 2,000 9,000 1,000 3,000 206206 2,000 407 219219 230 9696 1,8001,800 8,000 332 900 2,500 297297 423 2,500 1,6001,600 585 800 342 7,000 342 918 1,4001,400 600 700 2,0002,000 369 1,1501,150 6,000 369 1,200 1,087 600 1,200 5,000 1,5001,500 1,0001,000 649 500 4,000 215215 800800 400 1,000 850850 3,000 1,000 600600 300 400 2,000 200 500500 400 200200 1,000 100 00 00 0 0 20072007 20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 H1H1 2013 2013H2H2 2013F 2013F 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013F Modern stock ('000 sq m) ModernModern stock stock ('000 ('000 sq sq m) m) NewNew с ompletionsсompletions ('000 ('000 sq sq m) m) New сompletions ('000 sq m) PrimePrime rent rent (USD/sq (USD/sq m/year) m/year) BaseBase rent, rent, Class Class A A (USD/sq (USD/sq m/year) m/year) Base rent (USD/sq m/year) USD/ '000 sq m Class B- sq m/year Vacancy Rates 5,000 125 17 15 65 1,000 30% 259 112 4,500 755 900 4,000 800 25% 549 3,500 700 20% 17.9% 3,000 600 2,500 400 500 15% 12.7% 2,000 400 10% 1,500 300 11.0% 1,000 200 5% 500 100 0 0 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013F 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q2 2013 2013F Modern stock ('000 sq m) Class A Class B+ Class B- New сompletions ('000 sq m) Base rent (USD/sq m/year) Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Jones Lang LaSalle – Investment Outlook 11 New Completions Dynamics Around 60% of the H1 office new completions are located in decentralized submarkets By Classes By Submarkets '000 sq m '000 sq m 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,000 678 678 500 341 500 341 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013F 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013F Class A Class B+ Class B- CBD From GR to TTR Moscow City Outside TTR * Central Business District (CBD) comprises the area within and in close proximity to the Garden Ring and Tverskaya-Yamskaya Street.
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