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Kalifat-Tiden-I-Det-21 Kalifat tiden i det 21.århundret i Midtøsten En analyse av Irans (sjia ideologi), Tyrkias (neo-osmanske ideologi) og Saudi-Arabias (wahhabisme ideologi) regionalpolitikk Mohammad Javad Heydari Masteroppgave i Statsvitenskap, Institutt for Statsvitenskap UNIVERSITETET I OSLO Juni.2016 Side 1 av 196 ©Mohammad Javad Heydari 2016 Kalifat tiden i det 21.århundret i Midtøsten. En analyse av Irans (sjia ideologi), Tyrkias (neo-osmansk ideologi) og Saudi-Arabias (wahhabisme ideologi) regionalpolitikk. M. Javad Heydari http://www.duo.uio.no Trykk: Reprosentralen, Universitetet i Oslo Side 2 av 196 Sammendrag Formålet med denne studien har vært å forklare disse spørsmålene; hvorfor sekteriske og stedfortrederkrig utviklet i Midtøsten?- Årsaker for splittelse mellom Sjiamuslimer og Sunnimuslimer?- Hvordan revolusjonen i 1979 har forandret maktbalanse i fordel av sjiavisjonen både i Iran og utenfor?- Hvordan den neo-osmanske ideologien forsøker å gjenreise igjen den ottomanske ære i Tyrkia og utenfor?- Hvordan Al-Saud dynastiet eksporterer den Wahhabisme ideologien til andre svake stater i Midtøsten?- Hvordan historiske elementer som politiske historien av Islam, første og andre verdenskrig har formulert de fundamentale røttene i konfliktene i regionen?- Hvordan Den arabiske våren har påvirket regionens skjebne for alltid?- Hvordan forsøker de regionale maktene som Iran, Tyrkia og Saudi Arabia gjennom sin makts ressurser til å lage hegemoniet i den islamske og arabiske verden?- Hva egentlige kalifatstyring betyr og hvorfor i det 21.århundre kamp for islamistisk idealer har blitt relevante? Derfor oppgavens problemstilling har vært som følger: Hvordan forsøker Iran, Tyrkia og Saudi-Arabia gjennom sin regionalpolitikk med bruk av myk og hard makt å bli den dominerende makten i Midtøsten? Hvilken rolle spiller religion i dette maktspillet? For å besvare denne problemstillingen med de spørsmålene som ble stilt, da har jeg benyttet meg av en kvalitativ forskningsdesign i form av casestudie, hvor trianguleringsmetode er datainnsamlingsformen i denne studien; dokumentanalyse og semi-strukturert intervju har blitt brukt for å samle inn relevante kilder som støttet meg til å besvare så godt så mulig på problemstillingen. Joseph Nye sin berømte arbeid om «myke og hard makt», samt Barry Buzan og Ole Wæver verk om «regionalsikkerhetskomplekset» har regulert de teoretiske tilnærminger i denne studien. Analysens resultater indikerer at det er et direkte samspill mellom historiske hendelsene (den politiske historien av islam/ Ottoman imperiets kriger mot Safavid dynastiet i 15-1600 tallet/ utfallene av første og andre verdens krig) og 21.århundret sekteriske og etniske konflikter i Midtøsten. Sjia og Sunni konflikten er plattformen for alle typer rivalisering mellom Iran, Tyrkia og Saudi Arabia i regionen. Det er en omfattende og blodig rivalisering mellom Teheran, Ankara og Riyadh som har blitt grunnlagt på ideologiske, historiske, religiøse, kulturelle, politiske og økonomiske tilnærminger. Iran med en sjiavisjon, Tyrkia med den neo- osmanske ideologi og Saudi Arabia med eksport av Wahhabism ideologi forsøker å dominere makten i regionen. Den arabiske våren var begynnelse av den nye epoken i regionens historie, som kan kalles for den Nye Midtøsten Orden (NMO). I Levanten regionen: Syria, Irak og Libanon har sentral posisjonen i kampen mellom Iran, Tyrkia og Saudi Arabia, som er basert på Sjia og Sunni konflikten, samt nasjonalinteresser og sikkerhets elementer er viktige for alle tre aktørene. Det er et sterkt bånd mellom de tre regional maktene og islamistiske jihadist grupper. Til slutt, for å danne en form av islamske stat er ikke bare drømmen av Den islamske staten (IS), men atferden av Den islamske republikken Iran (IRI), Al-Saud monarkiet i Saudi Arabia og AK-regjeringen i Tyrkia viser at de tre forsøker å danne et islamistisk hegemoni, som kan kalles for islamske staten i regionen. Side 3 av 196 Side 4 av 196 Forord Jeg vil først og fremst takke min kunnskapsrike veileder, Anders Kjølberg, som fra første stund har vært imøtekommende, engasjert, tålmodig og full av verdifulle tilbakemeldinger. Uten hans engasjement og tålmodigheten det har vært umulig å bli ferdig med det komplekset problemstillingen. Jeg vil også takke han for støttet som fikk jeg med norsk språket og medmenneskelige råder som har jeg fikk fra ham. Jeg vil gjerne takke min far for alle hjelp, konstruktive råd og tilbakemeldinger jeg har fått mens jeg har arbeidet med oppgaven. Hans perspektiv på regionen, diplomatiske karrierer og erfaringer, har vært alltid og skal være for alltid mitt forbilde med å forsete det utfordrende arbeide videre. Jeg tok statsvitenskap studiet, ikke på grunn av at jeg hadde ikke noe valg, men fordi jeg virkelig elsket det studiet og skal forsete med det videre i livet. Tilslutt, en stor takk rettes til alle mine informanter. Det har vært veldig interessant å møte og intervjue personer som jobber hverdag med Midtøsten regionen. Dere er svært kunnskapsrike mennesker, og jeg lærte noe nytt av dere alle. Jeg er veldig takknemlig for at dere tok dere tid til å ta i mot meg og hjelpe meg i arbeidet med denne studien. Eventuelle feil og mangler i oppgaven er utelukkende mitt eget ansvar. M. Javad Heydari Antall ord: 61 984 Side 5 av 196 Side 6 av 196 Oversikt over fokortelser Rettferdighets og utviklingspartiet (AKP) Den islamske republikken Iran (IRI) Den islamske staten (IS) eller Den islamske staten Irak og Levanten (ISIL) enten Den islamske staten Irak og al-Sham (ISIS) Center for strategic and international studies (CSIS) Den Nye Midtøsten Orden (NMO) Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) Kurdistans arbeiderparti (PKK) Partiet for Fritt Liv i Kurdistan (PJAK) Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Democratic Union Party (PYD) People Protection Units (YPG) Kurdiske Demokratisk Partiet (KDP) Kurdistans patriotiske union (PUK) Bruttonasjonalprodukt (BNP) Global Firepower (GFP) The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) Palestina Islamske Jihad organisasjonen (PIJ) Organisasjonen av Oljeeksporterende land (OPEC) Konferansen for Samkvem og Tillitsskapende tiltak i Asia (CICA) Kjøpekrafts indikator (PPP) Organisasjonen for økonomi samarbeid (ECO) Det internasjonale atomenergibyrået (IAEA) Shanghai samarbeid organisasjon (SCO) Organisasjonen av alliansefrie nasjoner (NAM) Gas Exporting Counteries Forum (GECF) Organisasjon for islamsk samarbeid (OIC) Irans offentlige kringskasting (IRIB) Side 7 av 196 Iran revolusjonsgard (IRGC) Qods Hæren (IRGC-QF) IRGC Ground Force (IRGC-GF) Den tyrkiske internasjonale samarbeide og utviklingsorganet (Tika) North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Organisasjonen for økonomisk og utvikling (OECD) Organisasjonen for sikkerhet og samarbeid i Europa (OSSE) Verdens handelsorganisasjonen (WTO) Verdens Bank (WB) International Monetary Fund (IMF) European Free Trade Association (EFTA) Arabiske Liga (AL) Palestinas frigjøringsorganisasjonen (PLO) Texas Oil Co. (Texaco) Saudi Arabia nasjonal oljeselskap (Aramco) Golfrådet (GCC) Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) Frie Syrisk Hæren (FSA) Syria fredsforhandlingene (Genève I og Genève II) Islamic Dawa Party (IDP) United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) Promised day Brigade (PDB) Asaib Ahl al- Haqq (AAH) Kaitb Hizbollah (KH) Iraqi National Accord (INA) Den frie patriotisk bevegelse (FPM) Framtid Bevegelse (FM) Al Qouwat al Lubnania (AQL) Side 8 av 196 Kart nr.1: Midtøsten Side 9 av 196 Innholdsfortegnelse Kapittel.1 Introduksjon ........................................................................................................... 13 1.1 Tematikk ......................................................................................................................................... 13 1.1.2 Inspirasjon ................................................................................................................................... 14 1.1.3 Islam ............................................................................................................................................ 15 1.1.4 Resultatene av to verdenskriger i Midtøsten ................................................................................ 17 1.1.5 Dagens realiteter reflekterer historien .......................................................................................... 18 1.2 Metodogiske betraktninger ........................................................................................................... 22 1.2.1Casestudie som forskningsdesign ............................................................................................. 22 1.2.2 Triangulerings Metode ................................................................................................................ 25 1.2.2.1 Dokument Analyse ................................................................................................................ 26 1.2.2.2 Semi-strukturert Intervju ...................................................................................................... 27 1.2.2.2.1 Informanter ....................................................................................................................... 28 1.2.3 Validitet og Reliabilitet ................................................................................................................ 28 Kapittel.2 Teorier ....................................................................................................................... 29 2.0 Teoretiske rammeverket ................................................................................................................
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