Rainfall-Runoff Modeling of River Kosi Using Scs-Cn Method and Ann
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RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING OF RIVER KOSI USING SCS-CN METHOD AND ANN A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF Bachelor of Technology In Civil Engineering By Punit Kumar Bhola and Ashish Singh Department of Civil Engineering National Institute of Technology Rourkela May, 2010 RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING OF RIVER KOSI USING SCS-CN METHOD AND ANN A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF Bachelor of Technology In Civil Engineering By Punit Kumar Bhola and Ashish Singh Under the supreme guidance of Prof. Ramakar Jha Department of Civil Engineering National Institute of Technology Rourkela May, 2010 National Institute of Technology Rourkela CERTIFICATE This is to certify that the project entitled, ―Rainfall-Runoff modeling of river Kosi using SCS-CN method and ANN‖ submitted by ‗Ashish Singh and Punit Kumar Bhola‘ in partial fulfillments for the requirements for the award of Bachelor of Technology Degree in Civil Engineering at National Institute of Technology, Rourkela (Deemed University) is an authentic work carried out by him under my supervision and guidance. To the best of my knowledge, the matter embodied in the report has not been submitted to any other University / Institute for the award of any Degree or Diploma. Date: (Prof. Ramakar Jha) Dept. of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Rourkela - 769008, Orissa ii Acknowledgement We express our gratitude and sincere thanks to Prof. Ramakar Jha for his guidance and constant encouragement and support during the course of my work. We truly appreciate the value and his esteemed guidance and encouragement from beginning to the end of the thesis, his knowledge and company at the time of crisis would be remembered lifelong. Our Sincere thanks to Prof. M. Panda, Head of the Civil Engineering Department, National Institute of Technology, Rourkela for providing all kind of help and support. We are also thankful to all the professors of Civil Engineering Department. We also thank our friends who directly or indirectly helped us in our project work and completion of the report. Last but not the least we would like to thank our parents who taught us the values of hard work by their own example. We would like to share this moment of happiness with our mother and father. They rendered us enormous support during the whole tenure of stay at NIT Rourkela. PUNIT KUMAR BHOLA (10601017) ASHISH SINGH (10601018) Department of Civil Engineering National Institute of Technology Rourkela iii Table of Contents ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................. vi LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................... vii LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................... ix 1.INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................1 1.1 General ..................................................................................................................................2 2. STUDY AREA ............................................................................................................................4 2.1 Kosi River ..............................................................................................................................5 2.1.1 SunKosi Basin .................................................................................................................5 2.1.2 Arun River Basin ............................................................................................................5 2.1.3 Tamur River Basin .........................................................................................................6 3. REVIEW OF LITERATURE ................................................................................................10 3.1 SCS-CN method ..................................................................................................................11 3.2 Artificial Neural Network ...................................................................................................11 4. METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................13 4.1 SCS-CN Method of Estimating Runoff Volume .................................................................14 4.1.1 Soils ..............................................................................................................................15 4.1.2 Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC) .......................................................................16 4.1.3 Land use ........................................................................................................................16 4.2 Artificial neural network (ANN) .........................................................................................18 4.2.1 NEURAL NETWORK MODEL ..................................................................................18 4.2.1.1 Multilayer Perceptron ...........................................................................................19 4.2.1.2 Radial Basis Function ...........................................................................................21 4.2.2 Rainfall-Runoff Modeling Using ANN ........................................................................22 iv 5. RESULTS & DISCUSSION....................................................................................................24 5. 1 Estimation of missing rainfall data .................................................................................25 5. 2 Upstream and Downstream Discharge Relation .............................................................27 5. 3 Correlation Between the Raingauge Stations ..................................................................25 5.4 Rainfall v/s Downstream flow .........................................................................................28 5. 5 Analysis by SCS-CN Method .........................................................................................29 5. 6 Normalization of Data ....................................................................................................32 5. 7 Analysis by ANN ...........................................................................................................35 5. 8 Comparison .....................................................................................................................37 5. 9 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................38 References .....................................................................................................................................39 Appendixes I. Rainfall-Runoff relationship .......................................................................................... I II. Optimized Network .................................................................................................... XII v Abstract A rainfall-runoff model is a mathematical model describing the rainfall - runoff relations of a catchment area, drainage basin or watershed. In other words, the model calculates the conversion of rainfall into runoff. There can be used many methods to calculate the runoff among which the methods used in the current report are SCS-CN Method Artificial Neural Network (ANN) In rainfall-runoff modeling SCS-CN uses the soil information, rainfall, storm duration, soil texture, type & amount of vegetation cover and conservation practices are considered while a new dimension has been added to the modeling approach through the adoption of the ANN technique as these models possess desirable attributes of universal approximation, and the ability to learn from examples. The performance comparison of both the models is made with coefficient of determination (R2) which is coming to be 0.82 in case of SCS-CN method and 0.89 in case of ANN. Further a comparison is made of both the models i.e. ANN and SCS-CN for the runoff of river Kosi in year 2009. vi List of Figures Figure 1: Kosi river basin in Bihar (Flood Management Information System (FMIS), Bihar) .................... 7 Figure 2: Kosi River basin in Nepal (Rapid hazard and risk assessment post-flood return analysis (2009) UNESCO on behalf of OCHA and UNCT, NEPAL ..................................................................................... 8 Figure 3: Structure of a MLP model with single hidden layer .................................................................... 21 Figure 4:Structure of a RBF model ............................................................................................................. 22 Figure 5: Typical Rainfall- Runoff relationship ......................................................................................... 23 Figure 6: Upstream v/s Downstream Modified discharge relation for year (a) 2005 ............................................................................................................................................... 26 (b) 2006 ............................................................................................................................................... 26 (c) 2007 ..............................................................................................................................................