Food for thought 06-2019 DEFENCE INNOVATIONS
LOOK INTO THE FUTURE
AN EXPERTISE FORUM CONTRIBUTING TO EUROPEAN CONTRIBUTING TO FORUM AN EXPERTISE SINCE 1953 ARMIES INTEROPERABILITY European Army Interoperability Center This paper was drawn up by Martina Mitrová, under the supervision and guidance of the Head of the Permanent Secretariat. This Food for Thought paper is a document that gives an initial reflection on the theme. The content is not reflecting the positions of the member states, but consists of el- ements that can initiate and feed the discussions and analyses in the domain of the theme. It was drafted by the Permanent Secretariat of Finabel.
INTRODUCTION
The world today is full of new technology For example, “technologies like radar, the Glob- that we use regularly every day without even al Positioning System, the internet, and even noticing it. Yet behind every new technology driverless cars have benefited from research orig- lies years of research, testing, and a never end- inally performed for the military.” 1 ing ‘trial and error’ process. This technology aids us in making our everyday lives simpler. Even though the meaning of war and the Technology is no longer solely associated with spectrum of gadgets employed by the defence smartphones and computers either, there are sector has changed drastically throughout ‘intelligent’ cars, and even ‘revamped’ homes. recent years, the present level of this devel- Through the ‘Internet of things’, the con- opment is reaching an unprecedented high. nection via the Internet and ‘smart’ devices Innovation has become a necessity, fueling embedded in everyday objects has become a competition between states, and opening the present reality. We can now easily and with door to non-state actors as well. This is fur- a limited budget, control the light bulbs in ther fueled by the process of globalization. our homes, or turn on the heating or washing Due to this, statements have been made that machine from anywhere in the world, need- “successful defence innovation obviously requires ing only a controlling device and internet both disruptive and capability-based incremen- connection. tal innovation in order to provide Member States with the defence capabilities they need in As with other sectors, the defence sector has the future.” 2 become equally influenced by the phenome- non of innovative technology. Furthermore, it is not very well known how important the military has been, and continues to be, in this innovation process.
1 Vitter, S. – Corey, J. In a position to lead: How military technology and innovation can ease the world's water challenges. [online]. [Quoted: 2018-11-14]. Online:
Defence innovations: look into the future 2 INNOVATION – A LOOK BEHIND THIS PIVOTAL AREA
What is the meaning of ‘innovation’? Where issue: “Innovation is 5% having an idea, and did the story begin? Schilling, from New York 95% blood, sweat, and tears, explains Newell. University, in her book Strategic Management The hard part is developing or finding a pipeline of Technological Innovation defines innovation from idea to finished product.” 5 as “the act of introducing a new device, meth- od, or material for application to commercial or An innovator can be personified in many dif- practical objectives.” 3 Another, more specific, ferent forms and is usually composed not of definition comes from Jingjing Huo: “techno- one individual, but rather a collection, such as logical innovation is all about information. On a firm, university, non-profit organization, or one hand, innovation creates new technological government funded research group. knowledge useful for economic production; on the other hand the very process of innovation Maital and Seshadri try to explain this process is an example of searching under imperfect in- through the use of a sport metaphor: “Cricket formation, given the uncertain and constantly is a team sport. But it is also a sport that fea- evolving nature of R&D.”4 Authors define in- tures individual flashes of brilliance. Innovation novation differently, yet the central meaning is much like cricket. No single individual can appears to remain the same: Visible output of ever implement a major world-changing idea – innovation is only a small part of the process this requires teamwork. But almost always, as a whole, and we have to understand it in a such world-changing innovations begin in the holistic manner, seeing how it is composed of creative mind of individual. So, innovation is a lot of small vital steps. both.6”
The story begins with an idea (something If the idea was born in laboratory, or on the imagined or pictured in the mind), which is battlefield, the whole process can be either supported by personal creativity (the abili- brought to life or come to an abrupt end. Pic- ty to produce novel and useful works). This ture nb.17 shows the concept of an “Innova- creativity is then transformed into a specific tion funnel” which presents the procedure for creation. Newell, a former army officer and research, and we can see that in the beginning partner at BMNT Partners, which focuses on there are a multitude of processed ideas that unique and innovative solutions, explained in eventually lead to the final goal.“The pharma- an interview for military news “Task & Pur- ceutical industry demonstrates this well – only pose”, his opinion on the complexity of this one out of every 5000 compounds make it to the
3 Schilling M.A., Strategic Management of Technological Innovation. New York University, 2013. p.1. Fourth Edition. ISBN 978-0-07- 802923-6. 4 HUO, J. 2015. How nations innovate: The political economy of technological innovation in affluent capitalist economies.Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2015. p.2. ISBN 978-0-19-873584-7. 5 Brune, R.A. Innovation In The Army, Part I: It Starts With The Warfighters.[online]. 2014 [Quoted: 2018-11-14]. Online:
Defence innovations: look into the future 3 pharmacist’s shelf, and only one-third of those from products developed within the past five will be successful enough to recoup their R&D years.” 10 costs.” 8 Yet, there are times when the innovation pro- cess can take a considerably different route, namely in the case of accidental innovation. One case of accidental innovation is that of
3,000 Raw 300 the electro-optical engineer Gavriel Iddan, 125 Small 4 Major 1 Successful Ideas Submitted 2 Launches Projects Developments New Product (unwritten) Ideas who was working on the development of the ‘eyes’ of guided missiles, which were supposed to recognise their targets. While working on this, he travelled to the USA, and befriend- ed Eitan Scapa, a gastroenterologist. After years of their friendship and a lot of research, Innovation funnel through their combined knowledge they in- vented a small camera which was then used in As shown above, the initial part of the inno- the digestive system, which transmits interior vation process has to go through many phas- images wirelessly to the computer.11 Never- es of research, which naturally takes time. theless, neither one of them planned to invent Griffin, in“Product development cycle time for this technology. In the end, it was coincidence business-to-business products” tried to find an which brought them together and brought answer on how long, on average, it takes for a about the discovery of one of the most impor- product to develop from the initial concept to tant and helpful inventions in contemporary becoming a market ready product. Thanks to medicine in this field. the surveys distributed in firms and research institutions she figured out there are three Cases of accidental innovation are rare, and main levels of innovation: “incremental”, far between. As a whole, it seems clear that “more innovative” and “new to the world”. the innovation process as a whole should be On average the longest level is the last “new seen as a complex process, which inevitably to the world” stage, taking up to 24 months. carries with it positive and negative external- The “more innovative” stage can take up to/ ities. Some of the most important negative over 14 months, and the “incremental” peri- externalities are pollution, erosion, medical od can take up to 6.5 months.9 Although this issues and regulation, and moral and ethical means that as a whole the process can be quite considerations. On the other hand, the posi- lengthy, all in all for many it will be worth tive impact can be argued to be more impor- it in the end, as “Technological innovation is tant, outweighing the negative aspects – the now often the single most important competitive production of food, medical benefits, travel, driver in many industries. Many firms receive improved security, as well as simple and easy more than one-third of their sales and profits worldwide communication.
8 Ibid. 9 Griffin, A. Product development cycle time for business-to-business products. Industrial Marketing Management 31, 2002. p. 291-304. 10 Schilling M.A., Strategic Management of Technological Innovation. New York University, 2013. p.9. Fourth Edition. ISBN 978-0-07- 802923-6. 11 Iddan, G. History and development of capsule endoscopy. Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Clinics of North America 14, 2004. p. 1-9.
Defence innovations: look into the future 4 INNOVATION, MODERNISATION OR SCIENCE-FICTION?
Often, we find in scientific literature the product. Therefore, at times “what’s innovative words innovation and modernisation are used today, is standard tomorrow.12” interchangeably. On the other hand, there is a lot of literature that denies the existence Another topic connected to innovation is the of one or does not mention the other at all. connection between science fiction, and real Yet, it is important to emphasise the differ- innovation technology products. The differ- ence between the two, even though at first ence between these two can at times appear to glance they appear similar. Modernisation is be quite small and sometimes even negligible, a process, where something old is changed as they influence one another, drawing inspi- (technology, way of work, etc.) or refined ration and ideas from each other in a constant (adding a key feature, ability, texture, etc.). reciprocal process. MIT Technology Review With innovation there is something new and published a study on this topic, wherein they unknown that usually comes about through a found that “Indeed, technology companies in- revolutionary solving of a specific problem, or creasingly employ futurists who use science fic- something that already existed, but through tion as a medium for exploring potential new research and development another new ex- technologies and their social impact. They call ploitation/use is found. this science fiction prototyping.”13
For example, if an army of a specific country One of the countries, that does not hide the decides to buy airplanes from another one, connection between science-fiction and in- this would be seen as modernization, but if novation is China. Many people have started this country decided to invest in research and to be interested in this connection and the development, or to buy new exoskeletons that possibilities it presents, because they see it as have been recently developed, we can call this a chance to fulfill their visions and dreams. innovation. One of the well-known authors is Liu Cixin and among his fans are Barack Obama, Mark These two process however, are used by gov- Zuckerberg and many others. Science fiction ernments to differing degrees. As it is often is no longer relegated to only books and com- easier, faster and more cost-effective, govern- ics. Now it can be found in the most popular ments are usually more open to moderniza- TV series and movies. The Chinese magazine tion. Yet, because of the nature of innovation, Science Fiction World found that in 2016 where at times it can take years to develop, there were more than 80 million fans of this yet other times something is developed quite genre in China.14 rapidly, modernization and innovation are inevitably linked in an ongoing cycle. What We can see how popular this topic is in Chi- was finally developed and marketed, can soon na by looking at the Chinese administration become obsolete or less desirable due to a rival as well, which demonstrated its interest. “The
12 PAHLKA, J. 2016. The CIO Problem, Part 2: Innovation.[online]. Code for America [Quoted.: 2019-01-25].p.1.Online:
Defence innovations: look into the future 5 Ministry of Education last year added science as a compulsory subject for primary school students beginning from first grade, with courses focused more on hands-on experiments than textbooks. In the eastern province of Zhejiang, information technology and coding were added as subjects to the college entrance exam on a trial basis in 2017.”15
Through this, China has begun encouraging the development of science and technology from an early age. European countries could encourage a similar approach and place an in- creased emphasis on science and technology in the educational system as well, which could lead to younger generations being more deep- ly interested and involved in the development of new technologies, not only in the defence and security sphere, but in many others as well.
WHAT ARE THE MOST POWERFUL TECHNOLOGIES OF THE FUTURE?
A lot of countries are thinking about new of 100 innovations that are sorted into three technology through different spectrums and categories – happening now, near future (10- looking at completely different possibili- 20 years) and distant future (20+ years). This ties of use for certain areas and products of table can be seen in next page. technology. The United States and China are constantly working on innovation in the The following examples are only a small part defence and security sector, allocating a con- of those technologies, that will ultimately lead siderable portion of their GDPs to this area. to life-changing consequences in the next few Within Europe, countries are also doing the years. This list has been however, composed same. For example, there has been an increase and compiled into a few groups according to of funding towards innovation in this area in the author’s own choice and opinion. countries such as France, Belgium and the Netherlands. FOR MOST IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGY: There is a broad spectrum of different new ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) technological innovations. Imperial College London in cooperation with Imperial Tech The term AI has been mentioned often in Foresight composed a “Table of Disruptive recent years, yet with varying meanings and Technologies” in 2018. This table consists connections. “AI can be considered in two ways:
15 Ibid.
Defence innovations: look into the future 6 A dashboard of 100 wonderful, weird (and possibly worrying) ways TABLE OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES the world might change in the foreseeable future
Example of organizations active in each area
HIGH De Ps Ht Hc Da Sp El Vr Co Qt 1 Monit (South Korea), Abena Nova (Denmark), 32 Blue River Technology (US), Hortau (Canada) 66 BioTeq (UK), Grindhouse Wetwear (US), Dangerous Digital footprint Personal digital Human head Human cloning & Distributed autono- Space solar power Space elevators Fully immersive Artificial We can't talk about Siempre Secos (Spain) Things (US), see also The Eyeborg Project and the eraser shields transplants de-extinction mous corporations virtual reality (VR) consciousness this one 33 Google/Waymo (US), Voyage (US), Nvidia Automotive Cyborg Foundation 2 Statoil (Norway), Siemens (Germany), Volturn (US), (US), most major auto-makers as 91a science aimedDE at92 trying toDE discover93 the essenceHA 94FOR OPTIMALHA 95 SOLDIERDE PROTECTION:96 SP 97 SP 98 DE 99 EA 100 UMaine (US) 67 Alphabet/Google Genomics (US), Amazon (US), Illumina 34 Amazon (US), Google/Alphabet (US), Philips (US), Oxford Nanopore Technologies/Metrichor (UK) of intelligence and developing generally intelli- EXOSKELETONS 3 Green Skies Vertical Farms (US), Aero Farms (US), (Netherlands), Samsung (South Korea), Dyson (UK), Neo Farms (Germany), Urban Crop Solutions (Belgium) Miele (Germany), iRobot (US) 68 CTRL-Labs (US), Emotiv (US), Neuralink (US), maybe gent machines, or as a science providing meth- Facebook (US) odsCiCiCi for solving complexLeLeLe problems thatSaSaSa cannot be BrBrBrEven thoughAdAdAd there are manyAbAbAb countries workIsIsIs- PhPhPh ThThTh Te 4 WiTricity (US), Powermat (Israel), Apple/Power By Proxi 35 Google/Alphabet (US), Amazon (US), Flirtey (US) Conversational Life-expectancy Stratospheric Battlefield AI advisors & decision- AI board members Invisibility shields Factory Transhuman Telepathy (US), Qualcomm (US), Mojo Mobility (US), Mopar (US), 69 No example found solvedmachine without interfaces applyingalgorithms some intelligenceaerosols like, robotsing on and investingmaking machines in AI, &this politicians can serve to photosynthesis technologies Fulton Innovation (US) 36 Airbus (France), Boeing (US) 70 Improbable (UK) for81 instance, MIplaying82 good chessDE or 83making rightSP 84overlookEA the 85fact that DEthe whole86 operationEA 87 is SP 88 SP 89 HA 90 HA 5 Google/Alphabet (US) 37 FabCafe (Japan), NASA (US) 16 71 European Organization for Astronomical Research in decisions based on large amounts of data.” based on humans and is thus limited by our 6 ReWalk (US), Rex Bionics (US), SuitX/US Bionics (US), 38 SRI International (US) the Southern Hemisphere (European consortium of 16 Ekso Bionics (US), Lockheed Martin (US) countries) capabilities. One solution for this problem is 39 Stratasys (US), Autodesk (US) 7 Google/Alphabet (US), Samsung (Korea), Hexoskin 72 No example found POSSIBILITIESSsSsSs IpIpIp OF USE HeHeHeFOR THE MpMpMpthe use of exoskeletons.DnDnDn This GvGvGv could be one QsQsQs of CpCpCp UdUdUd Rd 40 NASA (US) Planetary-scale Implantable phones e-tagging Male pregnancy DNA data storage Genomic vaccines Quantum safe Cognitive Data uploading Reactionless drive (Canada) Owlet (US), Komodo Tech (Canada), Shiftwear (US), Lechal (India), OM Signal (Canada) 73 Epicenter (Sweden) and Three Square Market 32M (US) ARMY:spectroscopy of humans & artificial wombs cryptography prosthetics to the brain 41 Basil Leaf Technologies (US), Dynamical Biomarkers Analysing and interpreting data the most important innovations of the future are close Group (US/Taiwan), Scanadu (US) quickly71 andSP effectively,72 aidingMI 73in a soldier'sDE 74yet is atHA the same75 time DEone of76 the leastSP devel77- DE 78 HA 79 HA 80 SP 8 The Boring Company/Elon Musk (US), China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (China) 74 No example found decision-making process in real time. oped. Most of them are becoming lighter, with 42 Starwood Hotels (US), MariCare (Finland), 9 Reaction Engines (UK), NASA (US), Boeing (US), Scanalytics (US), Futureshape (Germany) 75 Twist Bioscience (US) Lockheed Martin (US), Airbus (France) Gh Ak Rs Em Xx Bh Me TcTcTc DrDrDr Wh 43 Flowsky (Japan), Scanadu (US) 76 Vaccinogen (US), EpiVax (US), IBM (US), 10 Deep Space Industries (US), Planetary Resources (US), 44 Tesla (US), ABB (Switzerland), Siemens (Germany), Juno Therapeutics (US) Predictive gene-based Automated Autonomous robotic Emotionally aware Humanoid sex Human bio-hacking Internet of DNA Thought control - Dream reading Whole Earth Made in Space (US) healthcare knowledge discovery surgery machines robots machine interfaces & recording virtualisation IBM (US), Itron (US) 77 Alphabet/Google (US), KETS (UK), IDQ (Switzerland), 61 DE 62 EA 63 EA 64 MI 65 MI 66 HA 67 DE 68 MI 69 HA 70 DE 11 Bitcoin (Japan), Ripple (US), Litecoin (US) 45 Synthetic Genomics/ExxonMobil (US), Global Algae Isara (Canada) 12 Solarreserve (US), Abengoa (Spain), North China Innovations (US), Algenol (US) 78 Darpa (US) Power Engineering (China), Shanghai Electric (China), 46 Organavo (US), Envision TEC (Germany), RegenHU Zhejiang Supcon Solar (China), NWEPDI (China) 79 Kernel (US), Neuralink/Elon Musk (US), 2045 Initiative Md Sw Mm Pb Et La Sd LcLcLc PcPcPc Sh (Switzerland), Cellink (Sweden), Seraph Robotics (US) (Russia), Darpa (US), General Electric/Braingate (US), 13 PredPol (US), ECM Universe (US) possibly Facebook (US) Mega-scale Self-writing Public mood Programmable Peer-to-peer energy Lifelong personal Smart dust Low-cost Planet colonization Shape-shifting 47 HbO2 Therapeutics (South Africa), Biospace (US) desalination software monitoring bacteria trading & transmission avatar assistants space travel matter 14 Pavegen (UK), ECEEN (China) 48 For example Vantablack by Surrey NanoSystems (UK) 80 NASA (US), Cannae (US) 51 SP 52 EA 53 DE 54 SP 55 DE 56 MI 57 DE 58 HA 59 HA 60 SP 15 Google/Alphabet (US), Joby Energy (US), Altaeros (US), 49 ITER (EU/France), Tokamak Energy (UK), Alphabet/ 81 Apple (US), Amazon (US), Alphabet/Google (US), Kitegen (Italy), Enerkite (Germany) Google/Tri Alpha Energy (US), General Fusion Microsoft (US) 16 Pullstring (US), Amazon (US), Alphabet/Google (US), (Canada), Helion Energy (US), Lockheed Martin (US) 82 No example found Nintendo (Japan), Invisible Girlfriend/Boyfriend (US) McMcMc Sf Dt Se Bf Op Bs NmNmNm FuFuFu Mr 50 Festo (Germany) 83 CIA (US) Medical tricorders Smart flooring & Diagnostic toilets Smart energy grids Algal bio-fuels Human-organ Artificial human New materials Fusion power Self-reconfiguring 17 NASA (US) 51 Israel Desalination Enterprises Technologies (Israel), carpets printing blood substitute modular robots 84 Lockheed Martin (US), QinetiQ (UK), Boston 18 Alphabet/Verily (US), Amazon (US), Vuzix (US), Acciona (Spain), Fluence Corporation (US) Dynamics/Softbank (US/Japan) 41 DE 42 DE 43 DE 44 SP 45 SP 46 SP 47 SP 48 SP 49 SP 50 SP Everysight (Israel) 52 Microsoft (US), Google/Alphabet (US), Open AI (US) 85 Woebot (US), Pefin (US), LV (UK) 19 Elegant Embellishments (Germany), iNova (Spain), 53 Open Utility/Essent (UK/Netherlands), 86 Deep Knowledge Ventures (Hong Kong), Tieto (Finland) Studio Roosegaarde (Netherlands), Prosolve 370e Knowelsys (China) (Germany) 87 BAE Systems (UK), Toyota (Japan). NB. Big difference POTENTIAL FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC DISRUPTION FOR POTENTIAL Dl Pa Id Df Ap Fp SrSrSr FdFdFd Ze Av 54 Gingko Bioworks (US), US Naval Research Laboratory between optical camouflage and bending light to make Distributed ledgers Precision Autonomous Intention decoding Drone freight Autonomous 3D-printing of food Swarm robotics 4-dimensional Zero-point energy 20 Dstl (UK), Boeing (US) (US), US Army Research Lab (US), Darpa (US) agriculture vehicles algorithms delivery passenger aircraft & pharmaceuticals materials things disappear 21 Softbank (Japan), AIST (Japan), Blue Frog Robotics 55 Open Utility (UK/Netherlands), Power Ledger 88 Breakthrough Energy (US), RIPE (US), Joint Centre for 31 DE 32 SP 33 EA 34 MI 35 EA 36 EA 37 SP 38 EA 39 SP 40 SP (France), Care-o-bot (Germany), Riken/Sumitomo Riko (Australia), LO3 energy (US), Energy Web Foundation Artificial Photosynthesis (US) (Japan), Mayfield Robotics (US) (Switzerland) 89 SENS Research Foundation (US), Methuselah 22 Amazon (US), Google/Alphabet (US), Philips 56 Konami Corp (Japan), Mitsuku (UK) Sc Ro As Rg Wa EbEbEb BpBpBp Be (Netherlands), Samsung (South Korea), Dyson (UK), Foundation/Peter Thiel (US) Rc Cm Miele (Germany), iRobot (US) 57 MOOG (US), Darpa (US) 90 Facebook (US), Neuralink/Elon Musk (US) Robotic care Smart controls Cultured meat Delivery robots & Autonomous ships Resource Water harvesting Broadcasting Bio-plastics Beam-powered companions and appliances passenger drones & submarines gamification from air of electricity propulsion 23 Impossible Foods (US), Memphis Meats (US), Super 58 Space X/Elon Musk (US), Blue Origin (US), Virgin 91 Suicide Machine (Netherlands), Just Delete Me (US) Meat (Israel), Finless Foods (US), New Harvest (US) Galactic (UK), Rocket Lab (US), Axiom Space (US), 21 MI 22 DE 23 SP 24 EA 25 EA 26 SP 27 SP 28 SP 29 SP 30 SP SpaceIL (Israel), Firefly Aerospace (US) 92 No example found 24 Wing/Alphabet (US), Starship Technologies (UK), Volocopter (Germany), eHang (China), Piaggio (Italy) 59 Space X (US), UAE Mars Mission (UAE), NASA (US) 93 Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group (Italy) Partial picture of the Table of Disruptive Technologies Cr So Pp Eh Wt Ac Mh SgSgSg PePePe Ff 25 Leidos (US), Boeing (US), Rolls Royce (UK) 60 Intel (US) 94 Sooam (South Korea), Revive and Restore (US) Cryptocurrencies Concentrated Predictive policing Micro-scale ambient Airborne wind Avatar companions Metallic hydrogen Smart glasses & Pollution eating Force fields 26 Joulebug (US), Waterpebble (UK) 61 Kite Pharma/Gilead Sciences (US), 23andMe (US), 95 No example found solarPlease power follow the URL address forenergy the harvesting full Table:turbines energy storage contact lenses buildings Phenogen Sciences (US), Regeneron (US), 27 Permalution (US), Sun to Water (US) Veritas Genetics (US) 96 Rebeam (US), Solaren Corp (US) 11 DE https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/12 SP 13 DE 14 SP 15 SP 16 MI 17 SP 18 HA 19 SP 20 SP administration-and-support-services/enterprise-office/public/ 28 Powercast (US) 62 IBM (US) 97 Thoth Technology (Canada) 29 NatureWorks (US), Gruppo MAIP (Italy), 63 Intuitive Surgical (US), Verb Surgical/Alphabet/Johnson 98 Improbable (UK), HelloVR (US), Magic Leap (US), Table-of-Disruptive-Technologies.pdf Genomatica (US), Green Dot Bioplastics (US) & Johnson (US), Da Vinci Surgery (US) Microsoft (US). See also Mind Maze (US), Facebook Sn Dw Va We Bi Px Cc VtVtVt SjSjSj Am (US) and possibly Apple (US) 30 NASA (US) 64 IBM (US), Toyota (Japan), Mimosys (Japan), Smart nappies Deep ocean Vertical agriculture Wireless energy Balloon-powered Powered Computerized shoes Vacuum-tube Scram jets Asteroid mining 16 Persado (US), Joy AI (US) 99 TYUGU, E. 2011. Artificialwind farms Inteligence in Cyber Defence. In Internationaltransfer Conferenceinternet exoskeletons & clothing transport 31 Everledger (UK), Stampery (Spain), Brickblock Possibly Alphabet/Google (US)
LOW (Germany), Slock.it (Germany) 1on Cyber Conflict.DE CCDCOE 2 Publications,SP 32011, 3rd. p. SP97 4 SP 5 SP 6 HA 7 DE 8 SP 9 SP 10 SP 65 Realbotix (US), True Companion (US) 100 As it says, we can’t say
SOONER TIME* LATER * Time is defined as ubiquity or mainstream use not invention Defence innovations: look into the future 7 Legend How to read entries Themes The Small Print Each of the 100 technologies has been Conceived and created by Richard Watson and Anna Cupani at It is a mixture of prediction and provocation intended to stimulate Examples are purely illustrative and do not constitute any form of Ghost Technologies: Fringe science Abbreviation of technology subjectively categorised according to five Imperial Tech Foresight. Thanks are due to Gaby Lee, Simon debate, but be aware that other elements should always be recommendation, validation or investment advice. Also note that & technology. Defined as highly improbable, but not Tindemans, Thomas Heinis, Stephen Green, Peter Childs, Maria considered when assessing potential impact, especially the wider with smaller companies and start-ups in particular the broad themes, which are: actually impossible. Worth watching. Sn Jeansson, Nik Pishavadia, Roberto Trotta, Aifric Campbell, psychological and regulatory landscape in which technologies exist. landscape is continually changing so treat examples with caution. DE Data Ecosystems Christopher Haley, Tom Cleaver, Guido Cupani, Gerard Gorman, Most importantly, the technologies highlighted on this table appear There will also undoubtedly be errors and misjudgements, so Horizon 3: Distant future 20 years + (Explore). Smart nappies Description of technology Finn Giuliani, Lawrence Whiteley, Sebastian Melchor and the without any discussion of moral or ethical factors. please use a bit of common sense. SP Smart Planet Science Communication students at Imperial College London Generally speaking, no technology should be used unless it If you’d like to contact us to congratulate us, criticise us or buy us Horizon 2: Near future 10-20 years hence for their invaluable assistance and enthusiasm. improves the human condition and with potentially disruptive lunch our address is [email protected]. You can also 1 DE Theme (See next right) EA Extreme Automation technologies always remember that “with great power comes great reach Richard via [email protected]. (Experiment). Examples HA Human Augmentation The purpose of this publication is to make individuals and responsibility”. (There are various attributions for this quote institutions future ready. Also, to make people think, ranging from Spiderman, Dr Spock, Yoda, Churchill, Roosevelt and Version 1 (Beta). London, January 2018. www.imperialtechforesight.com Horizon 1: Happening now (Execute). (See right hand panel) MI Human-Machine Interactions at least periodically. possibly the French Revolution). © 2018 Imperial College London all rights reserved. improved batteries, providing a longer life, FOR PROVIDING OPTIMAL PROTECTION: and becoming faster and more ergonomic. A NEXT GENERATION SEQUENCING key part of this innovation is not to aim for an “iron man” type suit for soldiers, which is Biological threats are constant and have be- outside of the realm of possibility and cost for come increasingly threatening due to the now, but instead simply a device to enable sol- speed and ease at which a threat could spread diers to carry out their duties in a more safe through increased travel, an unavoidable part and effective manner. of globalisation. Millions could be affected in a very short amount of time, despite the vari- POSSIBILITIES OF USE FOR THE ous safeguards and procedures that have been, ARMY: To check the pulse of soldier, detect- and continue to be put into place. For this ing the presence of poison in blood or chem- reason, they have become a popular method icals in the air and automatically notifying for terrorist attacks. Next generation sequenc- their commander. As well as the ability to ing is one of the solutions to this problem. carry a heavier load. “Novel sequencing technologies provide new op- portunities in infectious disease detection and diagnostics, such as rapid sequencing in response FOR PROVIDING OPTIMAL CONNECTION: to the early phase of an epidemic or the determi- INTERNET TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENT nation of genotypes during the investigation of a bio-threat event. Portable near-future sequenc- We have become used to being constantly ing instruments should be low cost to use and connected, thanks to the internet and new widely deployable.”17 Another huge benefit of technology; members within the military are this technology, is that it can provide consid- no exception. There are three main technol- erable, at times even life-saving, benefits for ogies within this field that are used the most civilians on a day-to-day basis. and will likely continue to be used the most, and all are connected by the internet: Block- chain technology, Big Data Technology and the Internet of Things.
POSSIBILITIES OF USE FOR THE ARMY: Connecting all relevant devices to the internet; ensuring the transport of ammuni- tion and other army equipment that can be located in real time via the internet (smoother logistics); using sensors, and other commu- nication possibilities to transmit all relevant and vital data whilst ensuring encryption and security of data for all.
17 EDA. 2017. Ten upcoming disruptive defence Innovations. In European Defence Matters. ISSN 1977-5059, 2017, Issue 14, p. 25
Defence innovations: look into the future 8 MAIN ISSUES
One of the real problems is, that because They are also working with 28 different in- countries are trying to compete with each novations that can provide solutions to a other in the field of innovation, certain top- crisis. For example, one of them is called the ics and areas of research are being conducted “Rumour Debunker”, which helps in dealing in more than one country in isolation of one with disinformation campaigns. “For example, another, slowing the process of development in a flooding event in Austria, someone posted in general. Some at times do share certain re- on social media, that cholera bacteria is in the sults, but because of the drive to dominate in water, which was not true. In the Munich gun- this field, fueled by both security and profit man event, an imprecise situational awareness concerns, it is usually not truly effective. picture caused a very large amount of bound forces (about 2,300) with two possible crime The European Union started to support coop- scenes and an unknown number of potential eration in this field so countries can try to in- “terrorists”. Social media was a facilitator of a crease their innovation interoperability, there- very sensitive public reaction. Even with public by reducing costs and increasing efficiency. communication about social media, it was not Since 2014 the project “Driving innovation possible to calm down the situation.”19 in Crisis Management for European Resil- ience”, DRIVER+, which focuses on the crisis A vital part of this project, and innovation in management of states decided to be involved general, is that the products are used in real in this initiative. The “main aim is to cope with conditions, allowing for the possibility of im- current and future challenges due to increasingly proving them further. There have already been severe consequences of natural disasters and ter- two trials in Poland and France, and another rorist threats, by the development and uptake of two are planned this year in the Netherlands innovative solutions that are addressing the oper- and Austria. ational needs of practitioners dealing with Crisis Management.18” Other innovations, that have already been tested are for example “Drone Rapid Map- Involved in this project are experienced pro- ping”, which grants the ability to compose fessionals, agencies, policy makers, technolo- a real time view of an affected area through gy experts and scientists from all over Europe. the use of drones. “Socrates OC”, is another They are trying to create innovative solutions project, and is a platform for rescue units to in software, training planning, and equip- communicate. The “3Di” project is creating a ment, or even the new collaboration capabili- model, that can predict a flooding location, ties of all components in the forces. Currently, the water depths or the water arrival times.20 14 European countries are involved, and they are cooperating with another 31 external part- In times of crises, one of the key components ners. in response to the crises, is the army, along
18 EÚ – CORDIS. Relaunch of Driver project, welcome Driver+!. EU Publication Office, 2017. p.1. 19 DRIVER+. 2018. Rumour Debunker. [online]. Program Driver+ [Quoted.: 2019-01-03]. p.1. Online:
Defence innovations: look into the future 9 with rescue units and specialized organiza- tions. Involvement of new technologies into crisis management creates opportunities for soldiers to try out a lot of new innovations.
Yet, one of the often-used comments about new technologies that was noticed through research for this paper, was the problem of actually using the provided innovative tech- nology. Soldiers mentioned that even though they have access to new technology, they are warned by their supervisors that they should not use the technology, as it is too expensive and valuable.
In times of crises however, the use, and more importantly the knowledge, of these technol- ogies could mean the difference in the num- ber of lives saved. For this reason, it should be emphasised at all levels, that even though the equipment is costly, that it is vital it is used nonetheless, and those which are meant to operate the technology become fully familiar- ised with its functioning.
This would also allow the possibility of gain- ing valuable feedback on the product, which can then be used for its improvement. Ad- ditionally, innovation, although costly, also drives considerable benefits and profits within national economies, arguably outweighing the costs incurred through their use and re- placement.
Even though development for these projects are not yet complete, as they are due to be fin- ished in December 2020, it still brings a lot of questions to the fore, on how states respond and deal with crises.
Defence innovations: look into the future 10 INTERVIEW WITH MAJ JEROEN FRANSSEN
In this research paper I have decided to in- Interview clude the opinions of Maj Jeroen Franssen, the current Information Manager & Innovation Author: Have you been interested in Officer of the Land Component Command innovation your whole life? How did you at Belgian Defence. Maj Franssen has been become dedicated to innovation? working in the Belgian Army for fifteen years, and at the same time as an independent IT Maj Franssen: Actually, when I started my first consultant. I have decided to include this in- year in my unit, as a young platoon command- terview, as Maj Franssen is an expert on inno- er, I actually started working in the unit where vative technologies in Belgium, who can bring there was a lot of focus on quality control and another important dimension to this paper. improving our business. At that time, we had seven logistic battalions and the unit where I This interview was held on the 19th of Novem- was, was considered as the most forward lean- ber 2018 in Brussels, Belgium and before the ing. There was an open culture for change. interview, Maj Franssen was familiar with an earlier publication of this article. The questions The culture was present amongst the members chosen were composed by the author. Their main of the unit, the changes were not imposed aim was to get an opinion from an expert of the from our command. After a couple of months innovation defence industry. of working I saw a lot of possible improve- ments and I started doing experiments where we tried to automate more and be more effi- cient. I was given the room by my superiors to experiment and then we discussed the mer- its of possible changes. I did it for two years and I was also employed in Kosovo where my
Defence innovations: look into the future 11 boss gave me a lot of autonomy, which I really a project shouldn’t depend on the motivation liked, so there again we started already inno- of somebody but should be an innate part of vating. We were at that time working with the organisation. I found for my research pa- an older logistic information system and we per three cases where we were able to innovate were planning to transition to a new one. We but there was a lot of organisational pushback started experimenting with this new system for these innovations. I read a lot of literature six months before all the rest. on the topic and then I compared the Belgian situation with other nations and there is a big After deployment I became what we call a difference, if you compare it, with for example technical officer of a logistic battalion. You France, who already for 20 years now, have an can call it ‘logistic consultant of battalion innovation culture integrated into their struc- commander’ and there I did only projects. ture and organisations. Some of those projects were given by the com- mander and others I could pick myself. I was Especially in the civilian sector, there is a clear working logistics-based projects for two years. desire for bottom-up innovation. This means After that I got to the Headquarters here in that people on the work floor are encouraged Belgium, where I was working for six months to innovate. In my current job we believe that in an existing desk and then I asked to create a we need to focus on the younger generation new office which was to be mainly focused on to be able to allow them to experiment, to procedures and performance of army logistics test stuff and find projects they want to do. and my boss agreed to that. The innovation structure that we are putting in place will help young innovators to dare to Author: This means that we could say, that innovate and help them with their projects. it was input from your side which led to the start of an Innovation structure in Belgium? Author: Do you come into direct contact with the soldiers, that have a lot of interest and Maj Franssen: Yes. My bosses gave me in the innovative ideas? Is it possible for them to past the opportunity for experimenting and make these ideas a reality? innovating but this wasn’t part of the Bel- gian Defence DNA. I therefore decided to Maj Franssen: Yes, we have some ongoing write my research paper in the Advanced Staff projects. If there is a somebody from a unit, Course on this topic. The paper suggests to who has a good idea, they can send those ideas create innovation officers in the components directly to me. We have decided to skip all the and this meanwhile has become a reality. people in-between as is being done by other nations. We also have created a SharePoint Author: And how does it look like now? Is it website with an “eight liner”, which origi- still mainly you, or do you have more people nally came from the USA and their idea of working alongside you? a “ten liner”. It doesn't matter who someone is in the organisation, or which position they Maj Franssen: It's still mainly me for the occupy. If they see an opportunity to change Army but I also have a colleague in the Navy something and they have an idea they should & Airforce. The thing that I noticed is that a be able to submit that. It is also important lot is dependent on the will of individuals in to note that it’s more than just expressing an order to push forward a project. Some pro- idea. They also have to come up with solu- jects are carried out with no problem, but not tions. Of course, this is just the beginning and everybody is always so lucky. The success of we need to take a lot of steps to achieve this.
Defence innovations: look into the future 12 Author: Do you cooperate with other Another interesting development is block- armies in the field of innovation? Do you chain technology. I’m currently reviewing a think innovation can be a way to support possible project that will use blockchain for interoperability between nations? resilient and secure data storage. The decen- tralised functioning of the blockchain is also Maj Franssen: We need to have, at least, an something that we are not used to anymore in idea what projects neighbouring country are Belgian Defence and worth looking into. carrying out. There is no use in doing the same project twice and I think there is a big Also, drones are very influential and more opportunity for Finabel. We plan on coordi- specifically the unmanned ground vehicles nating closely with the French Army and the have huge potential. The miniaturisation of Dutch Armed Forces, but this is a work in guided munitions to even small arms calibers progress. could also be a big change for Land Forces.
France has created an innovation institute Directed energy weapons such as lasers are and they have decided to spend in the next six also an interesting development but have their years €6 billion on innovation alone. I think own problems as you can’t shoot over an ob- there is real need to exchange information. ject as we do now with artillery and mortars. Also, for example, the British are now testing 80 unmanned platforms. It would be profit- And something, that we are not looking into, able for all of us to know, if this has failed or but the US is, is physical enhancement for if this is a success. There is no need to do one soldiers. This can be done with exoskeletons, thing twice. There is also the NATO forum, but this is very cumbersome for the moment but I think we also need something more Eu- or also by giving them special “drugs” to en- ropean centred. hance focus, reduce the need for sleep, etc. Giving additional attention to food can also Author: What do you think are the most increase the performance, as is being done powerful defence technologies of the future? with athletes. We are always looking at tech- nology, but people can also improve a lot and Maj Franssen: I think that one of the issues is it could be a domain that we may have to look the importance of software. Future battles will into the future more. be driven by software such as AI. At this time, we have limited interoperability between I would like to thank Maj Jeroen Franssen these softwares, especially on a technical level, for taking the time to speak with me and so this is a very big challenge and space for share his ideas and opinions. improvement.
Imagine that there is a world where a com- puter says to you, and that's actually what they wanted to do with the Scorpion project, ‘somebody from your unit is taking a fire and I suggest the following actions to address this’. And you can forward it to other personnel who can help him. That's something that is going to have a big impact in the short term.
Defence innovations: look into the future 13 CONCLUSION
One of the biggest challenges today is the this will only continue to grow. Cooperation ubiquitous need for innovation in the field of in this field however, is a problematic part state security. Despite the fact that many Eu- mainly because of the fact that advancement ropean states are working on modernization in innovation is always seen in light of com- in the army this should not be confused with petition and security concerns, and therefore innovation. Many of Europe's more advanced often innovators are not willing, or are forbid- countries, especially in the Western region, den, to share information on progress made have sidelined the trend of research and in- in certain areas and projects. The fact that novation. from time to time innovation can draw inspi- ration from science-fiction should also not be We can discuss many different types of specific overlooked. technologies that are currently in the pipeline and differ from one author to another. Howev- For now, there still remains a huge amount er, innovation that is often discussed include, of ideas and projects which are currently un- of course, artificial intelligence, and autono- feasible, and which must remain for now in mous systems in various forms, that also have the realm of fiction and fantasy. With the great potential for the future, as well as the fo- speed modern society has been innovating cus placed on secure data transfer and storage. technology however, it seems that often the response to many an idea, is not “if” it can In general, we can say that innovation is a be created but rather “when” it can be cre- very important topic in some countries, and ated.
Defence innovations: look into the future 14 BIBLIOGRAPHY
• Bloomberg. 2018. China uses Sci-fi to try to Spark a tech boom. [online]. Bloomberg News [cit.: 2019-01-25].p. 1. Online:
Defence innovations: look into the future 15 Created in 1953, the Finabel committee is the oldest military organisation for cooperation between European Armies: it was conceived as a forum for reflections, exchange studies, and proposals on common interest topics for the future of its members. Finabel, the only organisation at this level, strives at:
• Promoting interoperability and cooperation of armies, while seeking to bring together concepts, doctrines and procedures; • Contributing to a common European understanding of land defence issues. Finabel focuses on doctrines, trainings, and the joint environment.
Finabel aims to be a multinational-, independent-, and apolitical actor for the European Armies of the EU Member States. The Finabel informal forum is based on consensus and equality of member states. Finabel favours fruitful contact among member states’ officers and Chiefs of Staff in a spirit of open and mutual understanding via annual meetings.
Finabel contributes to reinforce interoperability among its member states in the framework of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the EU, and ad hoc coalition; Finabel neither competes nor duplicates NATO or EU military structures but contributes to these organisations in its unique way. Initially focused on cooperation in armament’s programmes, Finabel quickly shifted to the harmonisation of land doctrines. Consequently, before hoping to reach a shared capability approach and common equipment, a shared vision of force-engagement on the terrain should be obtained.
In the current setting, Finabel allows its member states to form Expert Task Groups for situations that require short-term solutions. In addition, Finabel is also a think tank that elaborates on current events concerning the operations of the land forces and provides comments by creating “Food for Thought papers” to address the topics. Finabel studies and Food for Thoughts are recommendations freely applied by its member, whose aim is to facilitate interoperability and improve the daily tasks of preparation, training, exercises, and engagement.
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