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BHP Billiton Limited (BHP.AX/BHPAU) Rating NEUTRAL* 0 ; I°NCREASE.TA.RGET PRICE ~-

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BHP Billiton Limited (BHP.AX/BHPAU) Rating NEUTRAL* 0 ; I°NCREASE.TA.RGET PRICE ~- 10 March 2011 Asia Pacific/Australia Equity Research CREDIT SUISSE Diversified Metals & Mining BHP Billiton Limited (BHP.AX/BHPAU) Rating NEUTRAL* 0 ; i°NCREASE.TA.RGET PRICE ~- .. Price (09 Mar 11, A$) 46.00 '-.L ~ 7" - • •-- - ~ ~ - -- • - - I ........ - - - - • Target price (A$) (from 52.50) 55.00' Market cap. (A$mn) 254,612.82 Filling the capex pipeline Yr avg. mthly trading (US$mn) 12,691 Last month's trading (US$mn) 14,273 Projected return: • BHP recently guided to US$80bn in growth capex between now and FY15. Capital gain (%) 19.6 In this note we have modelled the growth projects we expect to be approved in Gross yield (%) 3.2 the next 12-24 months to identify the value add. In line with BHP's long-term Total return (%) 22.8 basin-growth strategy a number of the projects we have assessed have a 52-week price range (A$) 47.36 - 36.28 • Stock ratings ate ,e/ativeto the televantcountry benchmark. modest NPV impact at initial production rates but open up long-term brownfield 'Targetprice is for 12 months expansion options (that are potentially very high returning). Target prices increased to A$55/GB£31.5 (from A$52.5/GB£30) in line with higher Research Analysts valuation. We retain a NEUTRAL investment rating. Paul McTaggart 61 2 8205 4698 • The growth projects we now incorporate have added 7% or ~US$17bn [email protected] to our valuation. The contributions to the net increase in valuation are: Met James Gurry coal projects: US$5bn, Escondida OPG1 and OGP2 US$4bn, Jansen 61 2 8205 4779 [email protected] Potash US$1.7bn, Olympic Dam Expansion Stage 1: US$4bn. Michael Shillaker • Minor forecast changes: We have added the shale gas acquisition (nil EPS 44 20 7888 1344 accretion at initial production rates), increased capex spend in FY12 and FY13 [email protected] capex to US$20bn and US$19bn respectively (from US$16bn and US$12bn). Liam Fitzpatrick Changes to earnings changes are minor: -1% in FY11, -1% in FY12 and -0.5% 44 20 7883 8350 [email protected] in FY13. The first production from the new growth projects we have modelled is Specialist sales: Julian McCormack FY13 with the bulk of new production commencing in FY16 and FY17. +612 8205 4419 • Investment case is attractive: BHPB trades on attractive forward multiples, [email protected] is investing significantly in its future production growth and is actively Specialist sales: James McGeoch returning cash to shareholders. Our target price of A$55/GB£31.5 share +44 20 7888 0751 [email protected] imply attractive shareholder returns. • Catalysts: A series of significant capex announcements over next 12-24 months. Other: A$5bn Ltd off-market buyback pricing period ends 8-April. • Valuation: We set our target price of A$55/GB£31.5 in line with our discounted cash flow (DCF) sum-of-parts (SOP) valuation. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 06/10A 06/11E 06/12E 06/13E -Price (LHS) - RebasedRel (RHS) Revenue (US$mn) 48,721.0 67,119.5 74,271.8 68,273.3 EBITDA (US$mn) 24,513.0 39,185.4 47,910.8 42,444.9 EBIT (US$mn) 19,719.0 34,502.0 42,699.2 36,609.2 :~:: Net income (US$mn) 12,469.0 23,798.7 29,036.9 24,959.1 EPS (CS adj.) (USc) 222.86 428.54 539.15 472.82 Ma--09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Ma--10 Ju~10 Na,-10 ~=M Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. -0.72 -0.98 -0.50 Theprice telative chart measurespelformance against the Consensus EPS (USc) n.a. 406.10 477.40 475.10 AustraliaS&P/ASX 200 index which dosed at 4767.Bon EPS growth (%) 16.4 92.3 25.8 -12.3 09/0J/11 P/E (x) 20.9 10.9 8.7 9.9 On 09/0J/11 the spot exchangerate was A$ 99/US$1 Dividend (USc) 86.00 96.00 107.50 112.88 Performance Over 1M 3M 12M Dividend yield(%) 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 Absolute (%) -1.6 1.2 6.0 P/B (x) 5.4 4.1 3.2 2.5 Relative(%) 1.2 0.7 7.1 Net debVeguity (%) 6.7 1.5 net cash net cash Source:Company data, ASX. Credit Suisseestimates, • Adj. for goodwill,notionalinterest and unusualitems. Re/allvePIE against ASX'S&P200based on pre GW in AUD. CompanyPE ca/cu/allonis based on displayedEPS Currency DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE 1 0 March 2011 Figure 1: Financial Summa~ In USDmn, unless olherwise stated Year ending 30 Jun Share Price: 46.00 Profit& Loss 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Financial Summary 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Sales revenue 50,800 48,721 67,119 74,272 68,273 Reported NPAT mn 5,877 12,722 23,623 29,037 24,959 EBITDA 22,085 24,513 39,185 47,911 42,445 Credit Suisse NPAT mn 10,722 12,469 23,799 29,037 24,959 Depr. & Amort. 3,871 4,794 4,683 5,212 5,836 Credit Suisse EPS C 192 223 429 539 473 Goodwill amort. EPS growth % 16.4 92.3 25.8 -12.3 EBIT 18,214 19,719 34,502 42,699 36,609 P/E X 24.2 20.8 10.8 8.6 9.8 Associates P/Eamings Growth X 1.3 0.1 0.3 nm Net interest 543 459 528 55 - 46 Reported PBT 12,826 19,513 33,798 42,644 36,655 Dividend payout ratio % 42.8 38.6 22.4 19.9 23.9 Income tax 6,488 6,504 9,508 12,793 10,997 DPS C 82.0 86.0 96.0 107.5 112.9 Profit after tax 11,183 12,756 24,466 29,851 25,659 Yield % 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 Minorities 461 287 667 814 700 Franking % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Preferred dividends NonmallzedNPAT 10,722 12,469 23,799 29,037 24,959 Operating CFPS C 337 320 559 655 577 Adjustments -4,845 253 -176 0 0 P/OCF X 13.8 14.5 8.3 7.1 8.1 Reported NPAT 5,877 12,722 23,623 29,037 24,959 EV/EBITDA X 11.0 9.9 6.2 5.1 5.7 FCF lield % 6.5 6.2 11.3 13.1 11.3 Balance Sheet Financial Ratios Cash & equivalents 10,833 12,456 13,250 11,842 15,256 ProfltabllltyRatios Inventories 4,821 5,334 5,620 5,620 5,620 EBITDA margin % 43.5 50.3 58.4 64.5 62.2 Receivables 5,153 6,543 7,876 7,876 7,876 EBIT margin % 35.9 40.5 51.4 57.5 53.6 Other current assets 1,679 801 926 926 926 Return on equity % 26.8 25 7 383 37 8 26.0 Cunrent assets 22,486 25,134 27,672 26,264 29,678 Returnon assets % 136 140 22 5 24 5 18.4 Property, plant & equip 49,032 55,576 69,493 83,921 97,162 ROIC % 26 0 25 7 40 2 397 28.8 Intangibles 1,059 687 778 778 778 Effective tax rate % 506 33 3 28.1 300 30.0 Other non-current assets 6,193 7,455 7,742 7,742 7,742 Non.currant assets 56,284 63,718 78,013 92,441 105,682 Balance Sheet Ratios Total assets 78,770 88,852 105,686 118,704 135,361 Net debt mn 5,586 3309 946 -146 -5,560 Payables 5,619 6,467 6,743 6,743 6,743 Net debVEquity % 13 7 6.7 15 -02 -5.7 lnte'\!st bearing debt 16,419 15,765 14,196 11,696 9,696 Net debVCapital % 121 63 15 -02 -6.0 Other liabilities 16,021 17,292 21,444 21,662 20,618 Interestcover 33 5 43 0 65 3 778 0 -791.1 Total llabllltles 38,059 39,524 42,383 40,101 37,057 Capex/Sales % 18.4 20 0 186 25 2 26.4 Net assets 40,711 49,328 63,302 78,603 98,304 Capex/Depn % 241 2 205 2 2665 358 4 309.4 Ordinary equity 39,954 48,525 62,134 76,821 96,022 Working capital/Sales % 1.4 -2 2 -2.0 00 0.0 Minority interests 757 803 1,168 1,782 2,282 Preferred capital Share Items Total shareholderfunds 40.711 49,328 63,302 78,603 98,304 Eguiv FPO (~riod avs ) mn 5,598 0 5,595 0 5,553 5 5,385 6 5,278.8 Cashflow Share Price Performance 52wk range: 36.28-47 .36 EBIT 18,214 19,719 34,502 42,699 36,609 7000 Net interest -314 -421 0 0 0 Depr&Amort 3,871 4,794 4,683 5,212 5,836 60.00 Tax paid -5,129 -4,379 -5,234 -11,318 -10,960 Wor1<ingcapital 726 -1,055 -1,343 0 0 5000 Other 1,495 -736 -1,552 -1,313 -1,035 Operating cashflow 18,863 17,920 31,056 35,280 30,450 4000 Capex -9,336 -9,766 -12,482 -18,679 -18,056 30.00 Acquisitions & Invest -122 -376 0 0 0 Asset sale proceeds 17 0 0 0 0 20.00 Other -1 ,610 -873 -5,340 -960 -1,021 Investing cashflow -11,051 -11,015 -17,822 -19,639 -19,077 10.00 Dividends paid -4,563 -4,618 -5,063 -5,519 -5,758 Equity raised 29 0 -4,736 -8,831 0 0.00 Net borrowings 3,929 -485 -1,998 -2,500 -2,000 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Other -575 -204 -475 -200 -200 -BHP.AX - XJO -XSR Financing cashflow -1,180 -6,307 -12,272 -17,050 -7,968 Total cashflow &,632 1,598 963 -1,409 3,415 Source Reuters Share ence as of 10-Mar-11, 06:05 Adjustments 26 26 3 0 0 Net Change In Cash 6,658 1,624 966 -1,409 3,415 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates BHP Billiton Limited (BHP.AX/ BHP AU) 2 CREDIT SUISSE 1O March 2011 Capex pipeline BHP Billiton is guiding to US$80bn of capex over the five years to end FY15.
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