10 March 2011 Asia Pacific/Australia Equity Research CREDIT SUISSE Diversified Metals & Mining BHP Billiton Limited (BHP.AX/BHPAU) Rating NEUTRAL* 0 ; i°NCREASE.TA.RGET PRICE ~- .. Price (09 Mar 11, A$) 46.00 '-.L ~ 7" - • •-- - ~ ~ - -- • - - I ........ - - - - • Target price (A$) (from 52.50) 55.00' Market cap. (A$mn) 254,612.82 Filling the capex pipeline Yr avg. mthly trading (US$mn) 12,691 Last month's trading (US$mn) 14,273 Projected return: • BHP recently guided to US$80bn in growth capex between now and FY15. Capital gain (%) 19.6 In this note we have modelled the growth projects we expect to be approved in Gross yield (%) 3.2 the next 12-24 months to identify the value add. In line with BHP's long-term Total return (%) 22.8 basin-growth strategy a number of the projects we have assessed have a 52-week price range (A$) 47.36 - 36.28 • Stock ratings ate ,e/ativeto the televantcountry benchmark. modest NPV impact at initial production rates but open up long-term brownfield 'Targetprice is for 12 months expansion options (that are potentially very high returning). Target prices increased to A$55/GB£31.5 (from A$52.5/GB£30) in line with higher Research Analysts valuation. We retain a NEUTRAL investment rating. Paul McTaggart 61 2 8205 4698 • The growth projects we now incorporate have added 7% or ~US$17bn
[email protected] to our valuation. The contributions to the net increase in valuation are: Met James Gurry coal projects: US$5bn, Escondida OPG1 and OGP2 US$4bn, Jansen 61 2 8205 4779
[email protected] Potash US$1.7bn, Olympic Dam Expansion Stage 1: US$4bn.