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Változó Versenykörnyezetben a Brit Autóipar, Avagy Egy „Footloose”-Nak Minősített Iparág Kilátásai Az Egyesült Királyságban

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Változó Versenykörnyezetben a Brit Autóipar, Avagy Egy „Footloose”-Nak Minősített Iparág Kilátásai Az Egyesült Királyságban PANNON EGYETEM Gazdálkodás- és Szervezéstudományok Doktori Iskola VÁLTOZÓ VERSENYKÖRNYEZETBEN A BRIT AUTÓIPAR, AVAGY EGY „FOOTLOOSE”-NAK MINŐSÍTETT IPARÁG KILÁTÁSAI AZ EGYESÜLT KIRÁLYSÁGBAN Írta: Konka Boglárka Témavezető: Dr. Török Ádám Veszprém 2020 Változó versenykörnyezetben a brit autóipar, avagy egy „footloose”-nak minősített iparág kilátásai az Egyesült Királyságban Az értekezés doktori (PhD) fokozat elnyerése érdekében készült a Pannon Egyetem Gazdálkodás- és Szervezéstudományok Doktori Iskolája keretében közgazdaságtan tudományágban. Írta: Konka Boglárka Témavezető: Dr. Török Ádám Elfogadásra javaslom (igen / nem) ………………………... Dr. Török Ádám témavezető A jelölt a doktori szigorlaton ....... %-ot ért el, Veszprém, ………………………… Dr. Török Ádám Doktori Iskola vezetője Az értekezést bírálóként elfogadásra javaslom: Bíráló neve: …........................ …................. igen /nem ………………………….. (bíráló) Bíráló neve: …........................ …................. igen /nem ………………………….. (bíráló) A jelölt az értekezés nyilvános vitáján …..........%-ot ért el. Veszprém, ………………………… a Bíráló Bizottság elnöke A doktori (PhD) oklevél minősítése…................................. Veszprém, ………………………… az EDHT elnöke TARTALOM 1. BEVEZETÉS ................................................................................................................................... 1. 1.1. A disszertáció célkitűzései és szerkezeti felépítése ..................................................................... 1. 1.2. Hipotézisek ............................................................................................................................... 4. 1.3. A kutatás jelentősége és időszerűsége ........................................................................................ 5. 1.4. A tanulmány korlátai ................................................................................................................. 8. 2. AZ EGYESÜLT KIRÁLYSÁG AUTÓIPARÁNAK FEJLŐDÉSI PÁLYÁJA ................................ 10. 2.1. A világ egyik legjelentősebb autóexportőr országának jellemzői .............................................. 10. 2.2. A lejtmenet előjelei ................................................................................................................. 14. 2.3. A fúziók hatása a brit autógyártás versenyképességére ............................................................. 20. 2.4. A japán tőke hatása az iparágra ................................................................................................ 26. 2.5. Lejtmenet a tőkebeáramlás ellenére ......................................................................................... 33. 2.6. Egy brit iparág, amelynek lendületet adott a globális pénzügyi válság ...................................... 37. 2.7. A fejlődési pálya tanulságai ..................................................................................................... 40. 3. A BRIT SZEMÉLYGÉPJÁRMŰGYÁRTÁS KÜLGAZDASÁGI TELJESÍTMÉNYE ................... 45. 3.1. Az Egyesült Királyság autókereskedelme ................................................................................ 47. 3.2. Koncentrációs folyamatok ....................................................................................................... 54. 3.3. Világkereskedelmi beágyazódást befolyásoló tényezők............................................................ 69. 4. AZ AUTÓIPAR SZEREPE A BRIT GAZDASÁG JÖVŐKÉPÉBEN ............................................ 82. 4.1. Egy jövőbeli fejlődési pálya elemei ......................................................................................... 82. 4.2. A brit autóipar versenyképességét befolyásoló potenciális tényezők ......................................... 86. 4.3. Egyes vállalatok magatartásformái a brit autóiparban............................................................... 97. 4.4. Menni vagy maradni .............................................................................................................. 108. 4.5. Potenciális kereskedelmi irányok a brit autóipar számára ....................................................... 112. 5. TÉZISEK .................................................................................................................................... 121. 6. ZÁRSZÓ .................................................................................................................................... 126. 7. IRODALOMJEGYZÉK ............................................................................................................... 127. 8. MELLÉKLET .............................................................................................................................. 159. ÁBRAJEGYZÉK 1. ábra: A disszertáció kutatási kérdései ........................................................................................ 2. 2. ábra: A Brexit folyamat idővonala ............................................................................................ 6. 3. ábra: Az Egyesült Királyságban gyártott személygépjárművek száma 1982 és 1999 között ...... 27. 4. ábra: Az Egyesült Királyságban gyártott személygépjárművek száma 1999 és 2009 között ...... 34. 5. ábra: Az Egyesült Királyságban gyártott személygépjárművek száma 2009 és 2017 között ...... 37. 6. ábra: A brit autók kivitele és az ország személygépjármű behozatala az Egyesült Királyság teljes árukereskedelméhez viszonyítva..................................................................................... 45. 7. ábra: Az Egyesült Királyságban gyártott személygépjárművek exportja, valamint az országba érkező autóimport értéke ................................................................................................ 48. 8. ábra: A brit autóimport koncentrációs indexei 1988 és 2018 között ......................................... 56. 9. ábra: Az export koncentrációs indexei ..................................................................................... 59. 10. ábra: Az Egyesült Királyság autóimportjának változása 1988 és 2018 között (EUR) ................ 61. 11. ábra: Az Egyesült Királyságban gyártott autók exportjának a változása 1988 és 2018 között (EUR) ...................................................................................................................................... 64. 12. ábra: Az Európai Unió részesedése az Egyesült Királyságban autóexportjából és –importjából (százalék) ....................................................................................................................... 67. 13. ábra: Az Egyesült Királyság autókereskedelmi mérlege (milliárd euró) ................................... 68. 14. ábra: Az Egyesült Királyság autóimportjának értéke az Európai Unióból 1988 és 2025 között . 83. 15. ábra: Az Egyesült Királyságban gyártott autók európai uniós exportjának értéke 1988 és 2025 között ............................................................................................................................. 85. 16. ábra: A brit autóipart befolyásoló tényezők ............................................................................. 88. 17. ábra: A Toyota, a Jaguar Land Rover, a Nissan, a BMW és a Honda brit üzemeinek részesedése az anyavállalatok globális kibocsátásából 2008 és 2016 között ..................................... 109. TÁBLÁZATJEGYZÉK 1. táblázat: A legjelentősebb brit autógyárak piaci részesedése a hazai piacon (%) 1947 és 1974 között . ...................................................................................................................................... 22. 2. táblázat: Az Egyesült Királyság autóimportjának leíró statisztikája ............................................... 50. 3. táblázat: Az Egyesült Királyság autóexportjának leíró statisztikája ............................................... 52. 4. táblázat: Az import koncentrációs indexeinek korrelációja ............................................................ 57. 5. táblázat: Az export koncentrációs indexeinek korrelációja ............................................................ 60. 6. táblázat: A vizsgálatba bevont változók jelölése és adatbázisuk: ................................................... 73. 7. táblázat: Az import gravitációs egyenletei 1998 és 2018 között..................................................... 75. 8. táblázat: Az import hatványkitevős regresszió egyenletei 1998 és 2018 között .............................. 77. 9. táblázat: Az export gravitációs egyenletei ..................................................................................... 78. 10. táblázat: Az export hatványkitevős regresszió egyenletei ............................................................. 80. 11. táblázat: A legjelentősebb külföldi tulajdonú, brit székhelyű autógyárak adatai 2017-ben ............ 98. 12. táblázat: Az Európai Unió és az Egyesült Királyság kereskedelmének lehetséges forgatókönyvei ..... .................................................................................................................................... 100. RÖVIDÍTÉSEK ~R2: korrigált determinációs együttható, korrigált R2 Brit/hazai autók: az Egyesült Királyságban gyártott személygépjárművek CR5: az öt legnagyobb kereskedelmi partner koncentrációs rátájának összege E: Entrópia G: GINI együttható GDPPF: egy főre eső bruttó hazai termék HHI: Herfindahl – Hirschman Index JIT: Just-in-time termelési rendszer K+F: kutatás – fejlesztés Q: relatív terjedelem RE: Relatív entrópia ROS: Rosenbluth Index SMMT: Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders V: relatív szórás VCA:
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