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Thematic Investing Global Water Primer: California Dreamin’ (Of Water)

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Thematic Investing Global Water Primer: California Dreamin’ (Of Water) Thematic Investing Global Water primer: California dreamin’ (of water) Primer Equity | 10 July 2015 A transforming world: global water crisis Global Thematic Investing As part of our work on A Transforming World, we update our Earth-focused theme with this Primer and a Primer Picks report – setting out the challenges and opportunities around global water with a deep-dive focus on the California water crisis. California drought: a sign of things to come globally We view the unprecedented drought in California as a harbinger of the coming global water crisis. California is in its 4th straight year of drought, with the last 3Y being the driest in recorded history. Groundwater levels have plunged up to 15-30m (50-100ft) and the Sierra Nevada snowpack is at 5% of historical levels. The drought is expected to cost California agriculture alone US$2.7bn in economic costs in 2015, with disruption extending to mandatory water restrictions, wildlife, land subsidence, seawater intrusion, wildfires, and human health. In a business as usual scenario, California water demand will outstrip supply by 50bn m3 (1tn gallons) by 2060E, with an 80% chance of multi-decade “mega-drought” this Beijia Ma >> Equity Strategist century. MLI (UK) +44 20 7996 9070 [email protected] Globally: water is the #1 risk facing the planet Sarbjit Nahal >> Water is recognised as the #1 global risk for 2015 in terms of impacts to economies, Equity Strategist environments and people. Globally, 750mn people lack access to safe drinking water source MLI (UK) +44 20 7996 8031 and 2.4bn have no access to proper sanitation facilities. Close to 50 countries are officially [email protected] classified as being water stressed, and up to 70% of the world’s underground aquifers have Felix Tran >> reached peak water. Global water demand is set to overshoot supply by 40% by 2030E, and Equity Strategist MLI (UK) by 2050E, 3.9bn people will be living under “severe” water stress. Poor water supply and +44 20 7996 7010 [email protected] sanitation cost the global economy US$260bn per year or c1.5% of global GDP. By 2050E, 45% of projected GDP is at risk, with as many as 50 countries at risk of conflict over water. A Transforming World Four major entry points, US$1tn market (2020E) We have mapped efforts to tackle the global dynamics of water supply and demand to highlight four entry points for investors wishing to invest in the global or California water theme: 1) Water Treatment; 2) Water Management; 3) Water Infrastructure & Supply; and 4) Water-friendly Energy. We believe these entry points will represent a US$1tn+ market by 2020E [email protected]. High growth: treatment, efficiency, tech, solar, EMs, desal We see the fastest 3-5Y growth coming from the low hanging fruits of water treatment and recycling, more efficient water usage (smart meters, high efficiency irrigation, surface and groundwater storage), technology (precision Ag, IoT, drought resistant seeds and crops), EMs (China), water-friendly energy (solar and wind), and desalination. This report is intended for BofAML Global & California stock lists & Primer Picks We highlight 50+ global stocks covered by BofAML that have material exposure to California water solutions. We have also updated our Global Water stock list to include over 100+ covered stocks with exposure to the water theme. Our 40+ Global Water primer picks (Buy- rated stocks with material exposure) are detailed in an accompanying Primer Picks report. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of MLPF&S and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Merrill Lynch entities that take responsibility for this report in particular jurisdictions. BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page150 to 152. 11531155 Contents California dreamin (of water) 3 BofAML Global & California exposure stocklists 4 Challenges for the world’s 7th largest economy 9 The long-term impacts of drought 27 State of emergency 34 Supply-side challenges for Golden State 42 Demand-side pressures of drought 60 Price of water - better pricing mechanisms needed 84 Financing - US$30bn in water investments needed pa 96 Solutions 102 Water treatment solutions 104 Water management solutions 120 Infrastructure & supply solutions 135 Water-friendly energy solutions 143 2 Thematic Investing | 10 July 2015 California dreamin (of water) We view the unprecedented drought in California as a harbinger of the coming global water crisis. California is in its 4th straight year of drought, with the last 3Y being the driest in recorded history. Groundwater levels have plunged up to 15-30m (50-100ft) and the Sierra Nevada snowpack is at 5% of historical levels. The drought is expected to cost California agriculture alone US$2.7bn in economic costs in 2015, with disruption extending to mandatory water restrictions, wildlife, land subsidence, seawater intrusion, wildfires, and human health. In a business as usual scenario, California water demand will outstrip supply by 50bn m3 (1tn gallons) by 2060E, with an 80% chance of multi-decade “mega-drought” this century. Water is recognised as the #1 global risk for 2015 in terms of impacts to economies, environments and people. Globally, 750mn people lack access to safe drinking water source and 2.4bn have no access to proper sanitation facilities. Close to 50 countries are officially classified as being water stressed, and up to 70% of the world’s underground aquifers have reached peak water. Global water demand is set to overshoot supply by 40% by 2030E, and by 2050E, 3.9bn people will be living under “severe” water stress. Poor water supply and sanitation cost the global economy US$260bn per year or c1.5% of global GDP. By 2050E, 45% of projected GDP is at risk, with as many as 50 countries at risk of conflict over water. Chart 1: California statewide mean temperature departure Chart 2: Percent of California in each drought category Mean Departure form 1949-2005 mean 100 90 11 yr moving average 80 3 70 2 60 2 50 1 40 1 30 0 20 -1 10 0 -1 -2 Jul-14 Jul-13 Jan-15 Jan-14 Jan-13 Mar-15 Mar-14 Mar-13 Nov-14 Sep-14 Nov-13 Sep-13 May-14 -2 May-13 -3 Exceptional Drought Extreme Drought Severe Moderate Drought Abnormally Dry None 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Source: WRCC Source: US Drought Monitor, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Four major entry points for investors We have mapped efforts to tackle the global dynamics of water supply and demand to highlight four entry points for investors wishing to invest in the global or California water theme: 1) Water Treatment; 2) Water Management; 3) Water Infrastructure & Supply; and 4) Water-friendly Energy. We believe these entry points will represent a US$1tn+ market by 2020E. BofAML Global & California stock exposure lists & Primer Picks We present a list of 50+ global stocks covered by BofAML that have exposure to California water solutions. We have also updated our global water stock list to include over 100+ covered stocks. Our 40+ global water primer picks (Buy-rated stocks with material exposure) are detailed in an accompanying Primer Picks report. Thematic Investing | 10 July 2015 3 BofAML Global & California stock lists We have mapped water opportunities and risks across a number of global sector value chains to highlight the diverse range of entry points for investors wishing to invest in the theme: 1) Water Treatment; 2) Water Management; 3) Water Infrastructure and Supply; and 4) Water-friendly Energy. For each theme, together with our BofAML Global Research sector analysts, we have estimated the level and materiality of companies’ exposure to water-related themes, and the role of water as a long-term growth driver. We have characterised each company’s exposure as follows: Low – Water-related products, technologies, services, and solutions are not material to global revenues and/or growth but are one factor, among others, for the business model, strategy and R&D of the company. Medium – Water-related products, technologies, services, and solutions are an important factor for the business model, strategy and R&D of the company; material to sales and/or growth. High – Water-related products, technologies, services, and solutions are core to the business model, strategy and R&D of the company; material sales and/or growth driver; pure play (i.e., 100% of sales). Within the list of companies with exposure to the BofAML Global Water theme, we also highlight companies with a particular exposure to the California drought. Although it is difficult to accurately gauge the link between such exposure and share price performance (as many factors outside the scope of this analysis are likely to play a role in short- and long- term price development), we still consider water-related exposure an important and positive point to track given that water is a thematic megatrend with a 25-50 year lifespan. The aim of our Global Water exposure stock list, California drought exposure stock list, and its four underlying themes is to provide investors with information to identify company and sub-sector specific risks and opportunities that are inherent in the water theme.
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