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Regional Evaluation of Renewable Energy Supply and Demand and Potential for Transmission Development June 2015

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Regional Evaluation of Renewable Energy Supply and Demand and Potential for Transmission Development June 2015 Regional Evaluation of Renewable Energy Supply and Demand and Potential for Transmission Development June 2015 Prepared for: Western Area Power Administration, U.S. Department of Energy – Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability Final Report This study was undertaken as Task Assignment Number 21 under Contract Number GS-23F-8182H, Task Order Number DE-DT0002679 for the U.S. Department of Energy in 2015. The Western Area Power Administration is one of four power market administrations under the Department of Energy, with the primary role of marketing and delivering wholesale electricity from multi-use hydro facilities. 1 Table of Contents Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Chapter 1 - Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 2 - Introduction and Background.................................................................................................... 9 Purpose of Report ........................................................................................................................................................... 9 Background........................................................................................................................................................................ 9 Chapter 3 – Renewable Capacity Drivers .................................................................................................... 11 Renewable Portfolio Standards and Transmission Additions................................................................... 11 Other Regional Drivers of Renewable Development ..................................................................................... 12 Conventional Generation Retirements ................................................................................................................ 12 Production Tax Credit (PTC) and Investment Tax Credit (ITC) ............................................................... 13 Renewables and Grid Parity .................................................................................................................................... 14 Chapter 4 – Supply Assessment ...................................................................................................................... 16 Major Utilities and Load Serving Entities Considered .................................................................................. 16 Supply Characteristics of Major Utilities and Load Serving Entities ...................................................... 16 Contracted Generation Supply................................................................................................................................ 17 Major Project Developers and Significant Projects ........................................................................................ 19 Procurement Locations ............................................................................................................................................. 20 Technology Types ........................................................................................................................................................ 21 Current RPS Compliance ........................................................................................................................................... 21 Project Failure Rates and Implications ............................................................................................................... 22 Chapter 5 – Demand Assessment of Renewable Procurement ........................................................... 24 Trajectory Case for Renewable Energy Demand ............................................................................................ 24 LSE Procurement Actions and Plans .................................................................................................................... 24 Arizona 24 California 25 California - SMUD ......................................................................................................................................................... 25 California - LADWP ...................................................................................................................................................... 25 California - Independent System Operator (CAISO) IOUs ........................................................................... 26 Nevada 27 New Mexico 28 Emerging Drivers of Change .................................................................................................................................... 29 Emerging Drivers - Solar Cost Trends ................................................................................................................. 29 Emerging Drivers - Energy Storage ...................................................................................................................... 29 Emerging Drivers - Distributed Generation ...................................................................................................... 30 Emerging Drivers - Electric Vehicles and Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment ................................... 31 2 Chapter 6 – Consolidated Review .................................................................................................................. 33 Assessment ..................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Emerging Factors ......................................................................................................................................................... 33 Scenarios and Impact on Assessment .................................................................................................................. 35 Critical Factors Influencing Scenarios and Trigger Points .......................................................................... 36 Critical Factors - Coal Plant Retirements ........................................................................................................... 36 Critical Factors - Distributed Energy Resource Penetration ...................................................................... 37 Chapter 7 – Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 39 Appendix A – Renewable Technologies and Characteristics ............................................................... 40 Utility-Scale Solar (PV, CSP)..................................................................................................................................... 40 Distributed-Scale Solar .............................................................................................................................................. 41 Utility-Scale Wind ........................................................................................................................................................ 41 Distributed Wind .......................................................................................................................................................... 42 Geothermal ..................................................................................................................................................................... 43 Appendix B – Renewable Portfolio Standard Details by State ............................................................ 44 California ......................................................................................................................................................................... 44 California - Background ............................................................................................................................................. 44 California - Program Structure ............................................................................................................................... 44 California - Compliance Periods ............................................................................................................................. 45 Arizona ............................................................................................................................................................................. 46 Arizona - Program Structure ................................................................................................................................... 46 Arizona - Program Performance ............................................................................................................................ 47 Arizona - Other Utility Programs Affecting Renewable Development ................................................... 47 Nevada .............................................................................................................................................................................. 47 Nevada - Program Structure .................................................................................................................................... 47 Nevada - Solar Program ............................................................................................................................................. 48 Nevada - Program Performance............................................................................................................................
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