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Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors from MENA to Europe

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Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors from MENA to Europe Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors from MENA to Europe Potential, Infrastructure and Cost Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors from MENA to Europe Potential, Infrastructure and Cost July 2009 Report prepared in the frame of the EU project ‘Risk of Energy Availability: Common Corridors for Europe Supply Security (REACCESS)’ carried out under the 7th Framework Programme (FP7) of the European Commission (Theme - Energy-2007-9. 1-01: Knowledge tools for energy-related policy making, Grant agreement no.: 212011). Franz Trieb, Marlene O’Sullivan, Thomas Pregger, Christoph Schillings, Wolfram Krewitt German Aerospace Center (DLR), Stuttgart, Germany Institute of Technical Thermodynamics Department Systems Analysis & Technology Assessment Pfaffenwaldring 38-40 D-70569 Stuttgart, Germany Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................1 2 STATUS OF KNOWLEDGE - RESULTS FROM RECENT STUDIES .................2 3 EXPORT POTENTIALS – RESOURCES AND PRODUCTION.........................19 3.1 SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCES IN POTENTIAL EXPORT COUNTRIES.........19 3.1.1 Solar Energy Resource Assessment .........................................................19 3.1.2 Land Resource Assessment ......................................................................39 3.1.3 Potentials for Solar Electricity Generation in MENA ..................................48 3.1.4 Potentials for Solar Electricity Generation World Wide..............................49 3.2 PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES, CAPACITIES AND COSTS .........................53 3.2.1 Solar Energy for Power Generation ...........................................................53 3.2.2 Overview of Concentrating Solar Power Technology ................................58 3.2.3 Current CSP Project Development ............................................................69 3.2.4 CSP Plant Performance Model ..................................................................76 3.2.5 CSP Production Potentials in MENA and the World Regions....................79 3.3 CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER PLANT COST MODEL............................83 4 IMPORT INFRASTRUCTURES..........................................................................87 4.1 TRANSMISSION TECHNOLOGIES, CAPACITIES AND COSTS......................87 4.1.1 HVDC versus HVAC ..................................................................................87 4.1.2 Characteristics of HVDC Technologies for Long Distance Transport ........89 4.2 PRESENT STATUS OF INFRASTRUCTURES..................................................92 4.2.1 Transmission Systems in and around Europe ...........................................92 4.2.2 Existing HVDC Transmission Lines ...........................................................98 4.3 DEVELOPMENTS IN THE FUTURE ................................................................100 Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors 4.3.1 Definition of Sites for CSP Exports ..........................................................100 4.3.2 Definition of Sites for CSP Imports ..........................................................102 4.3.3 Site Exclusion for HVDC Lines ................................................................104 4.3.4 Weighting of Non-Exclusive Land Characteristics ...................................108 5 ASSESSMENT OF FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS...........................................126 5.1 POLITICAL FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS .......................................................126 5.1.1 General European Directives...................................................................126 5.1.2 Union for the Mediterranean and Mediterranean Solar Plan ...................129 5.2 FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS, OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE........133 5.2.1 Ownership Structure of Transmission Lines ............................................133 5.2.2 Ownership Structure of Production Plants ...............................................135 5.3 TRENDS OF COMPETING REGIONS .............................................................138 5.3.1 Electricity Demand Trends in MENA........................................................138 5.3.2 Chances and Limitations of Electricity Exports from MENA to Europe....146 6 REFERENCES..................................................................................................147 Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors 1 INTRODUCTION This report describes methodology, information sources and results of an analysis of solar electricity export potentials of MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries and possible import corridors to EU27+. The analysis was done in the frame of the EU project ‘Risk of Energy Availability: Common Corridors for Europe Supply Security (REACCESS)’ carried out under the 7th Framework Programme (FP7) of the European Commission (Theme - Energy-2007-9. 1-01: Knowledge tools for energy- related policy making, Grant agreement no.: 212011). The study conducted as Task 2.3 in Work package 2 focuses on solar power as an additional and virtually limitless energy resource in contrast to fossil resources which were analysed in other Tasks of the REACCESS project. The interconnection of electric power transmission grids among the Mediterranean countries, including EU-countries as well as countries from the MENA region promises an increased level of energy security. The huge solar resources in the MENA countries, significant improvements in solar electricity generation and power transmission technologies, and the growing need for the decarbonisation of European electricity supply leads to increased interest in an EU- MENA electricity grid interconnection. The objective of this analysis was to specify the long term potential for solar electricity import from MENA countries into the EU, and to provide detailed technical and cost data for electricity generation and power transmission options. Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants including high temperature heat storage and high voltage direct current (HVDC) lines as transmission technology represent the key technologies for implementing this most promising option for import of renewable energy to EU27. The report documents the data basis which was used for the identification and characterisation of potentials and corridors provided for REACCESS project as an input for risk assessment and scenario studies using multi-regional TIMES energy system models. Annex A lists identified solar resources and electricity generation potentials of possible supply regions and Annex B gives an overview of identified and characterised corridors for imports into EU27. Page 1 Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors 2 STATUS OF KNOWLEDGE - RESULTS FROM RECENT STUDIES Methodologies and results of the study TRANS-CSP (Trieb et al., 2006) commissioned by the German Federal Ministry of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) were used as basis for work in WP2 Task “Electricity supply”. The TRANS-CSP study analysed the renewable electricity potentials in Europe and their capability to provide firm power capacity on demand. The concept includes an interconnection of the electricity grids of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (EUMENA) and evaluates the potential and benefits of solar power imports from the South. The results of the TRANS-CSP study can be summarized in the following statements: A well balanced mix of renewable energy sources backed by fossil fuels can provide sustainable, competitive and secure electricity for Europe. For the total region, the scenario starts with a reported share of 20 % renewable electricity in the year 2000 and reaches 80 % in 2050. An efficient future backup is necessary to complement the renewable electricity mix, providing firm capacity on demand by quickly reacting, natural gas fired peaking plants, and an efficient grid infrastructure is required to distribute renewable electricity from the best centres of production to the main centres of demand. After initiation, a change to a sustainable energy mix leads to less expensive power generation than a business as usual strategy in a time span of about 15 years. Imported fuels with escalating cost will be increasingly substituted by renewable, mostly domestic energy sources. The negative socio-economic impacts of fossil fuel price escalation can be reversed by 2020 if an adequate political and legal framework is established at time. Feed-in tariffs like the German or Spanish Renewable Energy Acts are very effective instruments for the market introduction of renewables. If tariff additions are subsequently reduced to zero, they can be considered a public investment rather than a subsidy. Solar electricity generated by concentrating solar thermal power stations in MENA and transferred to Europe via high voltage direct current transmission can provide firm capacity for base load, intermediate and peaking power, effectively complementing European electricity sources. Starting between 2020 and 2025 with a transfer of 60 TWh/y, solar electricity imports could subsequently be extended to 700 TWh/y by 2050. High solar irradiance in MENA and low transmission losses of 10-15 % will yield competitive import solar electricity costs of around 0.05 €2000/kWh. Page 2 Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors Carbon emissions can be reduced to 25 % compared to the year 2000. 1 % of the European land would be required
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