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Utility Scale Solar Projects in California: an Initial Survey

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Utility Scale Solar Projects in California: an Initial Survey UTILITY SCALE SOLAR PROJECTS IN CALIFORNIA: AN INITIAL SURVEY A Thesis presented to the Faculty of California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of City and Regional Planning By Meaghan Mroz-Barrett June 2015 2015 Meaghan Mroz-Barrett ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ii COMMITTEE MEMBERSHIP TITLE: Utility Scale Solar Projects in California: An Initial Survey AUTHOR: Meaghan Mroz-Barrett DATE SUBMITTED: June 2015 COMMITTEE CHAIR: Adrienne Greve, Ph.D. Associate Professor of City and Regional Planning COMMITTEE MEMBER: Michael Boswell, Ph.D. Professor of City and Regional Planning COMMITTEE MEMBER: Chris Clark, J.D. Lecturer of City and Regional Planning iii ABSTRACT Utility Scale Solar Projects in California: An Initial Survey Meaghan Mroz-Barrett The lack of a comprehensive database for both concentrating and photovoltaic utility-scale solar power projects, those with a generation capacity of greater than 50 MW, hinders the ability of researchers and policy makers to examine the state of solar development in the state of California. This research project seeks to fill this gap in understanding by creating a database of proposed and developed projects in order to examine trends in proposals, process time, approvals, and construction starts. Existing literature was evaluated to determine potential factors for project success in approval and construction. Upon determination of these factors, the project database was developed through use of publicly available data and extensive Internet searches of planning documents, industry releases, and articles on existing and proposed projects. The completed database, containing eighty projects, was analyzed to provide an initial look at the overall state of solar project development in California. This report details these early findings as well as areas for further research. The analysis indicates that, while California has a high amount of proposed projects and generation capacity, many projects do not reach the end of the public approval process and fewer still enter construction and operation. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................. viii LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................. x CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ......................................................................... 1 1.1 Background .......................................................................................... 1 1.2 Project Scope ....................................................................................... 3 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................... 4 2.1 Status of Renewable Energy Development ........................................... 4 Current State of Renewable Energy Development ................................ 4 Potential for Renewable Energy Growth ............................................... 6 2.2 Status of Renewable Energy in California ............................................. 8 History .................................................................................................. 8 Potential for Renewable Energy Development in the State ................. 10 Trends in Solar Development in the State ........................................... 10 2.3 Solar Technologies ............................................................................. 11 Photovoltaic Systems ......................................................................... 14 Concentrating Solar Power ................................................................. 15 2.4 Landscape Impacts ............................................................................. 16 2.5 Public Acceptance of Utility Scale Solar Energy ................................. 17 2.6 Factors for Successful Development................................................... 19 Financial Factors ................................................................................ 20 Governmental Factors ........................................................................ 20 v Public Factors ..................................................................................... 21 2.7 Solar Power Plant Public Planning Approval Process ......................... 21 California Energy Commission Process .............................................. 22 County Process .................................................................................. 23 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY ...................................................................... 27 3.1 Project Rational .................................................................................. 27 3.2 Complications to Creating Database ................................................... 29 3.3 Primary Sources ................................................................................. 30 3.4 Database Topics ................................................................................. 30 Base Topics ........................................................................................ 31 Location Topics................................................................................... 32 Technology Topics .............................................................................. 33 Jurisdiction Topics .............................................................................. 35 Process Topics ................................................................................... 36 Process Time Topics .......................................................................... 38 Construction Topics ............................................................................ 39 3.5 Criteria for Database Inclusion ............................................................ 39 CHAPTER 4: ANALYSIS ................................................................................. 41 4.1 Basic Project Numbers ....................................................................... 41 4.2 California Energy Commission Jurisdiction ......................................... 50 4.3 County Jurisdiction ............................................................................. 52 4.4 Trends Over Time ............................................................................... 56 vi CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................ 63 5.1 General Findings ................................................................................ 63 5.2 Comparing the California Energy Commission and County Jurisdictions ........................................................................................ 64 5.3 Trends Over Time ............................................................................... 65 5.4 Further Research ................................................................................ 65 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................ 67 APPENDICES APPENDIX A: DATABASE BASE TOPICS ..................................................... 82 APPENDIX B: DATABASE LOCATION TOPICS ............................................ 85 APPENDIX C: DATABASE TECHNOLOGY TOPICS ..................................... 88 APPENDIX D: DATABASE LAND USE TOPICS ............................................ 92 APPENDIX E: DATABASE JURISDICTION AND PROCESS TOPICS ........... 96 APPENDIX F: DATABASE PROCESS TIME TOPICS .................................. 100 APPENDIX G: DATABASE CONSTRUCTION TOPICS ............................... 104 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 California’s Renewable Energy Potential (CEC, 2011c) ..................... 11 Table 3.1 Rational for Base Topics .................................................................... 31 Table 3.2 Project Status Definitions ................................................................... 33 Table 3.3 Rational for Location Topics ............................................................... 33 Table 3.4 Rational for Technology Database Topics .......................................... 34 Table 3.5 Rational for Land Use Topics ............................................................. 35 Table 3.6 Rational for Jurisdiction Topics .......................................................... 36 Table 3.7 Rational for Process Topics ............................................................... 37 Table 3.8 Approval Status Definitions ................................................................ 38 Table 3.9 Rational for Process Time ................................................................. 39 Table 3.10 Rational for Construction Topics ...................................................... 40 Table 4.1 Project Numbers ................................................................................ 42 Table 4.2 Projects by Jurisdiction ...................................................................... 42 Table 4.3 Projects by Project Status .................................................................. 43 Table 4.4 Projects by Operational Status ........................................................... 44 Table 4.5 Projects by Approval Status ............................................................... 44 Table 4.6 Projects by Power Purchaser ............................................................. 45 Table 4.7 Site Acreage ...................................................................................... 46 Table 4.8 Total Site Acreage
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