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SOLICHAMBA AM and O&M Market Update [FINAL3] ASSET MANAGEMENT AND O&M MARKET UPDATE Cedric Brehaut | Executive Consultant | SOLICHAMBA Prepared for the Intersolar Asset Management Summit 2017 U.S. MARKET SIZE 41 GW of PV Plants in Operation in the U.S. (2016YE) U.S. PV Installed Base, Gigawatts by Capacity Segment, 2007 to 2016 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 23.17 25.00 20.00 Gigawatts (cumulative) 15.00 4.59 10.00 4.72 5.00 8.45 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 < 20 kW 20 kW to 1 MW 1 MW to 5 MW > 5 MW Source: GTM Research ‘Solar PV Asset Management 2017-2022: Markets, Investors, Asset Managers and Software’ © SOLICHAMBA 2017 – All Rights Reserved – No Reproduction or Distribution Without Approval 3 Almost 15 GW Installed in 2016 vs. 1.5 GW Prior to 2010 U.S. PV Installed Base, Gigawatts by Year of COD Key Stats* • 36.6 GW installed in 2012-2016 2010 2011 14.8 GW in 2016 alone 0.85 including 1.93 2012, 3.37 • 4.3 GW installed prior to 2012 2016, 14.76 • 1.5 GW installed prior to 2010 (already past ITC recapture) 2013, 4.76 • 0.85 GW installed in 2010 (i.e. past ITC recapture by 2017YE) 2014, 6.25 2015, 7.50 * Installed base by capacity segment Source: GTM Research ‘Solar PV Asset Management 2017-2022: (<20kW, 20kW-1MW, 1-5MW, 5MW+) Markets, Investors, Asset Managers and Software’ available in report. © SOLICHAMBA 2017 – All Rights Reserved – No Reproduction or Distribution Without Approval 4 California Still Represents 42% of the U.S. Installed Capacity U.S. PV Installed Base, Share of Gigawatts by State, 2016 Key Stats* • 17.1 GW in California alone All Other 20% • 15.7 GW in next 9 States • 8.1 GW in all other States (less California than half of California) 42% • Share of California peaked in 2014 at 57% and gradually shrunk to 35% in 2016 ArizonaNorth Carolina 7% 7% * Installed base by State for top 10 States, Source: GTM Research ‘Solar PV Asset Management 2017-2022: for each capacity segment (<20kW, 20kW- Markets, Investors, Asset Managers and Software’ 1MW, 1-5MW, 5MW+) available in report. © SOLICHAMBA 2017 – All Rights Reserved – No Reproduction or Distribution Without Approval 5 U.S. LANDSCAPE CONSOLIDATION 2016/17: A Tough Pass for Solar Companies Bankruptcies, Market Exits, Etc. At Risk • Developers and Installers • Inverter Manufacturers • Module Manufacturers • Module Manufacturers © SOLICHAMBA 2017 – All Rights Reserved – No Reproduction or Distribution Without Approval 7 5-YEAR MARKET GROWTH OUTLOOK ~75 GW of PV Plants Over 5 MW in Operation in the U.S. by 2022 U.S. PV Installed Base, Gigawatts by Capacity Segment, Forecast to 2022E 140.00 120.00 100.00 74.47 80.00 60.00 Gigawatts (cumulative) 11.70 40.00 11.01 20.00 30.79 0.00 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E < 20 kW 20 kW to 1 MW 1 MW to 5 MW > 5 MW Source: GTM Research ‘Solar PV Asset Management 2017-2022: Markets, Investors, Asset Managers and Software’ © SOLICHAMBA 2017 – All Rights Reserved – No Reproduction or Distribution Without Approval 9 California’s Share of U.S. Installed Capacity Drops to 27% by 2022 U.S. PV Installed Base, Share of Gigawatts by State, 2022E Key Stats* • 34.9 GW in California alone • 51.6 GW in next 9 States California All Other 27% 32% • 41.1 GW in all other States (~20% more than in California) • Share of California drops from 42% in 2016 to 27% in 2022E Texas 7% • Texas becomes second largest Arizona market in installed base 6% North Carolina 6% * Installed base by State for top 10 States, Source: GTM Research ‘Solar PV Asset Management 2017-2022: for each capacity segment (<20kW, 20kW- Markets, Investors, Asset Managers and Software’ 1MW, 1-5MW, 5MW+) available in report. © SOLICHAMBA 2017 – All Rights Reserved – No Reproduction or Distribution Without Approval 10 Suniva’s Requested Remedy Cuts Market Forecast by 43% • If Suniva remedies were applied: • Imported module prices would jump to 2012 levels • System prices would jump to 2015 levels w/ imported modules • Domestic module market would become supply-constrained; prices would go up • Impact would vary by segment: • Residential: +13% system cost • C&I: +24% system cost • Utility: +40% fixed tilt system cost • Geographic diversification would temporarily halt as system price increases roll back grid parity • Markets are impacted by hedging (module demand pull and price Note: Although the petition can be interpreted both ways, the ‘Minimum Module Price’ scenario above best represents Suniva’s requested remedy. increases, capital tightening) © SOLICHAMBA 2017 – All Rights Reserved – No Reproduction or Distribution Without Approval 11 U.S. M&A AND SECONDARY MARKET ACTIVITY 2016/17 Corporate M&A Highlights (Relevant to U.S. AM/O&M) • 1/16 Oaktree (Investor) acquires Solarrus (later rebranded as MaxGen Energy Services) • 4/16 EDF RE (IPP) acquires groSolar (Development/EPC) • 4/16 MaxGen (Holding) acquires Power Factors (Software) • 7/16 Bay4 Energy (AM/O&M) acquires Ekhosoft (Software) – and sells it 4 months later • 7/16 DNV GL (Technical Advisor) acquires GreenPowerMonitor (Software) • 9/16 First Solar (Developer/O&M) sells Skytron Energy (Software) • 11/16 Power Factors (Software) acquires Ekhosoft (Software) • 11/16 MaxGen (O&M) acquires Next Phase Solar’s C&I business (O&M) from Enphase • 12/16 Sun System Technology (EPC/O&M) acquires Next Phase Solar’s residential bus. (O&M) from Enphase • 2/17 Mitsui (IPP) acquires SunEdison’s C&I business (Development) • 2/17 AES (IPP) acquires sPower (Development) • 3/17 Brookfield (IPP) acquires 51% of TerraForm Power – incl. 900MW of operational assets in U.S. O&M Services Monitoring Software Development/IPP © SOLICHAMBA 2017 – All Rights Reserved – No Reproduction or Distribution Without Approval 13 2016/17 Large Asset Portfolio M&A Highlights (U.S.) • 11/16 NRG Energy (IPP) acquires 530 MW of operational PV plants, 265 MW of contracted PV projects, and a pipeline of solar and wind projects under development totaling 1,500 MW • 1/17 Longroad Energy (Developer) acquires 10,000 MW pipeline from 7x Energy • 2/17 AES (IPP) and Alberta Investment Management Corporation (Investment Manager) split ownership of the sPower portfolio (1,274 MW in operation and 10,000 MW in development) • 3/17 Brookfield (IPP) acquires 51% of TerraForm Power (900MW in the U.S.) • 4/17 Fiera Infrastructure (Fund) acquires a non-controlling interest in a 921 MW portfolio of solar and wind projects from DESRI (some operational, some in development) © SOLICHAMBA 2017 – All Rights Reserved – No Reproduction or Distribution Without Approval 14 2016/17 Secondary Market Highlights (U.S.) 1/2 Date Buyer Category Project(s) State Seller MW MW (Gross) (Net) Jan-16 Terra Nova Renewable Partners Fund Portfolio Multiple Dominion 231 76 Jan-16 ConEdison Development IPP Alamo 7 TX OCI Solar Power 106 106 Feb-16 Southern Power & Turner Renewable Energy IPP Calipatria CA Solar Frontier 20 20 Mar-16 Southern Power IPP East Pecos TX First Solar 120 120 Apr-16 8point3 Energy Partners YieldCo Hooper CO SunPower 50 n/a Apr-16 8point3 Energy Partners YieldCo Kingbird CA First Solar 40 n/a Jun-16 D.E. Shaw Renewable Investments (DESRI) Fund Portal Ridge CA First Solar 31 31 Jul-16 Southern Power IPP Henrietta CA SunPower 102 52 Jul-16 Southern Power IPP Lamesa CA RES America 102 102 Jul-16 Southern Power & Turner Renewable Energy IPP Rutherford NC Cypress Creek Ren. 74 74 Jul-16 D.E. Shaw Renewable Investments (DESRI) Fund North Star MN Community Energy 100 100 Sep-16 NextEra Energy Partners YieldCo Desert Sunlight CA NextEra 550 132 Sep-16 8point3 Energy Partners YieldCo Henrietta CA SunPower 102 50 IPP or utility buyer 100+ MW transactions (net) © SOLICHAMBA 2017 – All Rights Reserved – No Reproduction or Distribution Without Approval 15 2016/17 Secondary Market Highlights (U.S.) 2/2 Date Buyer Category Project(s) State Seller MW MW (Gross) (Net) Oct-16 Dominion IPP Accomack VA, NJ Community Energy 80 80 Oct-16 Dominion IPP Summit Farms NC SunEnergy1 60 60 Nov-16 8point3 Energy Partners YieldCo Stateline Solar CA First Solar 300 102 Nov-16 Southern Power IPP Boulder Solar I NV SunPower 100 n/a Nov-16 Dominion IPP 4 projects VA Virginia Solar 80 80 Nov-16 NRG Energy IPP Portfolio Multiple SunEdison 530 530 Dec-16 New Energy Solar Fund 2 projects CA SunPower 134 n/a Dec-16 D.E. Shaw Renewable Investments (DESRI) Fund Mississippi 2 MI Origis Devco 42 42 Jan-17 BHE Renewable Energy IPP Alamo 6 TX OCI Solar Power 110 110 Jan-17 Duke Energy Renewables IPP 2 projects CA SunPower 55 55 Mar-17 Brookfield IPP Portfolio Multiple TerraForm Power 900 459 Mar-17 NRG Yield YieldCo Agua Caliente AZ NRG Energy 290 46 Apr-17 Fiera Infrastructure Fund Portfolio Multiple DESRI 560 (e) 100+? IPP or utility buyer 100+ MW transactions (net) © SOLICHAMBA 2017 – All Rights Reserved – No Reproduction or Distribution Without Approval 16 2016/17 M&A and Secondary Market Takeaways • Major acquisitions of developers, pipelines, and asset portfolios by large IPPs • AES (sPower) • Southern Power • Duke Energy Renewables • Brookfield (TerraForm) • ConEdison Development • EDF RE (groSolar) • NRG Energy (SunEdison) • Dominion • Mitsui (SunEdison C&I) • YieldCos are not dead • 8point3 Energy Partners, NextEra Energy Partners, and NRG Yield bought assets • Limited consolidation activity in the O&M space • Opportunistic acquisitions due to Enphase divesting its O&M business • O&M providers have diverging strategies concerning software • MaxGen (Holding) invests (Power Factors, Ekhosoft) • First Solar and Bay4 divest (Skytron Energy, Ekhosoft) © SOLICHAMBA 2017 – All Rights Reserved – No Reproduction or Distribution Without Approval 17 U.S.
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