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Proceedings Seminar on Non-Traditional Security Challenges in a Globalized World: A Common Strategy for Developing Countries Date: 28 November 2019

VOLUME 04 NUMBER 02 NOVEMBER 2019

National Defence College NATIONAL DEFENCE COLLEGE Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka, Bangladesh www.ndc.gov.bd BANGLADESH 1

Seminar on Non-Traditional Security Challenges in a Globalized World: A Common Strategy for Developing Countries

Organized for National Defence Course 2019 and Armed Forces War Course 2019 by National Defence College on 28 November 2019

NATIONAL DEFENCE COLLEGE BANGLADESH

3 DISCLAIMER The analysis, opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this seminar proceeding are those of the presenters/authors and were presented as part of a course requirement of National Defence College for academic discourses and do not reflect any opinion or position or views of the College, Bangladesh Armed Forces or any other agencies of Bangladesh Government. Statement, facts or opinion appearing in this seminar proceeding are solely those of the presenters/authors/researchers and do not imply endorsement by editors, publisher or National Defence College, Bangladesh.

4 Foreword

Non -Traditional security issues are challenges to the survival and wellbeing of people and states. These issues primarily arise out of climate change, resource scarcity, diseases, natural disaster, irregular migration, food shortage, human and drug trafficking, transnational crimes, etc. causing security complexity and conflict.

Again migration is also treated as one of the Non- Traditional security threat and is interlaced with other security issues one resulting from another. For example- environmental insecurity compels people to migrate and migration host community may feel insecure.

Bangladesh is the most vulnerable nations to Climate Change (CC) ranking seven among the most severely affected countries globally. CC has already impacted several non-traditional security areas including food, water, health and migration in Bangladesh. Therefore, Bangladesh would need to prepare for long-term adaptation strategy identifying all present vulnerabilities and future opportunities, adjusting priorities and trade policies in the agricultural sector while promoting training and education throughout the masses in all possible spheres.

Climate Change is a phenomena that has multifarious security implications across the globe. Again Non-Traditional Security issues like migration cause societal and political instability and hence become threats to security. These threats are often transnational that goes beyond national boundary and remedies also call for collective efforts. National solutions are often inadequate and would essentially require regional and multilateral cooperation.

It is my pleasure to pen this foreword for “Non -Traditional Security Challenges in a Globalized World: A Common Strategy for Developing Countries”. I would like to thank the faculty members and college staff for their tireless effort in organizing the seminar and making it a success. Finally I appreciate the sincere efforts of the Research and Academic Wing and acknowledge the solemn endeavor of the editorial board to bring out the seminar paper.

Lieutenant General Sheikh Mamun Khaled, SUP, rcds, psc, PhD Commandant National Defence College

5 Editorial

Non-Traditional Security threats were added to the human security agenda after the Cold War. Energy, food, water, climate change, environment security, economic security, social issues etc. are in a nexus among the well-known Non-Traditional Security threats.

Climate change is one of the most serious national security threats that will have significant impacts on natural and coastal resources, ecosystem, human health and settlements and thus affect human wellbeing. At the same time, it is likely to influence large scale human migration and economic and social depression over scarce natural resources leading the political systems of greater uncertainty.

Climate change and forced migration have been particularly key areas of concern to global community in recent years. Therefore, a shift from the exclusive stress on territorial security to focusing on people’s security and instead of seeking security through armaments to gaining security through sustainable development is the demand of time.

In fine, I must convey sincere thanks and deep felicitation to all concerned who endeavored and co-operated in enriching the paper with their invaluable efforts and delicate suggestions. Moreover, I would like to thank “Editorial Board” for their relentless support and assistance to publish this paper. I promise to continue this effort to bring more diverse and newer topic for the readers in future.

Major General A K M Abdullahil Baquee, ndu, rcds, psc Senior Directing Staff (Army) National Defence College

6 Editorial Board

Chief Patron Lieutenant General Sheikh Mamun Khaled, SUP, rcds, psc, PhD

Editor in Chief Editor and Seminar Sponsor SDS Colonel M A Saadi, afwc, psc Major General A K M Abdullahil Baquee, ndu, rcds, psc

Associate Editor Lieutenant Colonel Muhammad Alamgir Iqbal Khan, psc, Arty

Assistant Editor Assistant Editor Asst Prof Nishat Sultana, Research Fellow Md Nazrul Islam, Assistant Director

7 Contents Foreword by Commandant, NDC 05 Editorial by Editor in Chief 06 Editorial Board 07 Overview of the Seminar 09 Executive Summary 11 Opening Address of Acting Commandant 20 Address of the Chief Guest 24 Keynote Paper on Climate Change: Impacts on Economy and Security 28 By- Dr. Hassan Mahmud Keynote Paper on Climate Change: Impact on Security and Conflict Situations 33 By- Mr. A K M Mamunur Rashid Keynote Paper on Climate Change and Water: Global to Local Aspects 40 By- Professor Md. Mafizur Rahman Keynote Paper on Security Paradigm of International Labor Migration and Development: An Overview of the State of Bangladeshi Migrant Labors 46 By- Khondoker Mokaddem Hossain, PhD Keynote Paper on Cross Border Forced and Voluntary Migration and Non-Traditional Security Discourse 57 By- Dr. Tasneem Siddiqui Keynote Paper on Migration: The Security Dimension of a Global Phenomena 64 By- Mr Asif Munier Summary of Interactive Session 75 List of Participants 86

8 Overview of the Seminar

NDC arranges a good number of seminars for the course members. The seminar on “Non–Traditional Security Challenges in a Globalized World: A Common Strategy for Developing Countries” was held on 28 November 2019” as part of the course curricula of National Defence Course and Armed Forces War Course 2019.

Dr. Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury, Bir Bikram, Adviser to the Hon’ble Prime Minister (Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Affairs) of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh graced the seminar as the chief guest. The participants of the seminar include members from different national and international organizations, universities, media, faculty and course members of both National Defence Course and Armed Forces War Course 2019. The seminar was conducted in two sessions. The panel of presenters were divided into two groups covering two sub- themes. In the first session, the first group of panellists presented their keynote papers on “Climate Change-Impact on Economy and Security.” In the second session, the other group of panelists presented keynote papers on “Migration: The Security Dimension of a Global Phenomena”. Both the session were followed by separate interactive sessions where critique groups provided their comments and suggestions to the respective groups.

The seminar started with the opening address by the Acting Commandant Major General A K M Abdullahil Baquee, rcds, ndu, psc, Senior Directing Staff (Army). He also acted as the master of the ceremony during the seminar. Professor Dr. Hassan Mahmud, Department of Environmental Science and Management, North South University, A K M Mamunur Rashid, Climate Change Specialist at UNDP Bangladesh and Professor Md. Mafizur Rahman, Department of Civil Engineering, BUET presented keynote speeches in the first session on “Climate Change-Impact on Economy and Security.” Professor Dr. Khondoker Mokaddem Hossain, Pro Vice Chancellor, Bangladesh Open University, Professor Dr. Tasneem Siddiqui, Department of Political Science, Dhaka University (Founding Chair, Refugee and Migrating Movements Research Unit ) and Mr Asif Munier, Migration and Refugee

9 Specialist presented keynote speech in the second session on “Migration- The Security Dimension of a Global Phenomena”. Professor Dr. Kawser Ahmed, Department of Oceanography, University of Dhaka and Professor Dr. Delwar Hossain, Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka moderated the two sessions respectively.

The topic of the seminar was very contemporary having a great effect on the national security in all possible dimensions equally applicable to Bangladesh as well as other developing countries of the world. The presentation and the discussion session contributed a lot to fulfil the aim of the seminar. A good number of queries came from the audience which were prudently and holistically answered by the presenters. In short the seminar offered a number of thought provoking insights into the subject.

10 Executive Summary

Introduction

National Defence College organized a seminar on “Non-Traditional Security challenges in a Globalized World: A Common Strategy for Developing Countries” on 28 November 2019 as part of course curricula of National Defence Course and Armed Forces War Course 2019. Adviser to the Honorable Prime Minister (Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Affairs), Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dr. Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury, Bir Bikram, graced the seminar as the chief guest.

Conduct of the Seminar

The seminar was conducted in two sessions with two sub themes. In Session 1, Engineer Hassan Mahmud, PhD, Professor, Department of Environmental Science and Management, North South University, A K M Mamunur Rashid, Climate Change Specialist at UNDP Bangladesh and Professor Md. Mafizur Rahman, Department of Civil Engineering, BUET presented keynote papers in the first session on the sub theme-1 “Climate Change- Impact on Economy and Security.” Professor Dr. Khondoker Mokaddem Hossain, Pro Vice Chancellor, Bangladesh Open University, Professor Dr. Tasneem Siddiqui, Department of Political Science, Dhaka University (Founding Chair, Refugee and Migrating Movements Research Unit) and Mr Asif Munier, Migration and Refugee Specialist presented keynote papers in the second session on the sub theme-2 “Migration-The Security Dimension of a Global Phenomena”. The two sessions were moderated by Professor Dr. Kawser Ahmed, Department of Oceanography, University of Dhaka and Professor Dr. Delwar Hossain, Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka respectively.

Findings of the Seminar

Considering the climate change and migration as the two important dimensions of the central theme “Non-Traditional Security Challenges in a Globalized

11 World: A Common Strategy for Developing Countries”, the speakers presented their individual views from different perspectives. The major findings are:

Session - 1: Keynote Paper - 1: “Climate Change: Impacts on Economy and Security” presented by Professor Hassan Mahmud.

• The term “environmental security” first appeared in the 1987 landmark report titled “Our Common Future” broaching a linkage between security risks and environmental degradation. The UN General Assembly on June 3, 2009 passed Resolution 63/28 acknowledging that the impacts of climate change could have serious security implications.

• One of the most visible consequences of a global warming is an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events like heat waves, cold waves, heavy downpours and major tropical hurricanes in recent years. Climate change directly influences precipitation and intensifies the global hydrological cycle resulting in prolonged flood and draught which in turn hampers agriculture. Climate change will affect all four dimensions of food security, such as food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food systems stability.

• Climate change affects social and environmental determinants of health, clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure shelter. High temperatures also raise the levels of ozone and other pollutants in the air that exacerbate cardiovascular and respiratory disease.

• Climate change will likely alter the frequency and intensity of forest disturbances, including wildfires, storms, insect outbreaks, and the occurrence of invasive species. Sea level rise (due to thermal expansion of sea water and melting of polar and mountain ice) is estimated to be up to 1 meter by 2100 which will impact more than 1.5 billion people and 17 largest cities of the world.

• Bangladesh is recognized worldwide as one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of global warming and climate change due to its unique geographic location, dominance of floodplains, low elevation from the sea, high population density, high levels of poverty, and overwhelming dependence on nature, its resources and services.

12 • Global warming and climate change threatens settlements and the number of people displaced from their land due to riverbank erosion, permanent inundation and sea level rise which are increasing rapidly every year.

Session -1: Keynote Paper - 2: “Climate Change: Impact on Security and Conflict Situations: Can Climate Change Cause or Exacerbate Existing Drivers of Security and Conflicts?” presented by AKM Mamunur Rashid.

• There is a vicious cycle between poverty, inequality and conflict, one exacerbating the other. A number of evidences suggest that poor countries, poor regions and poor people are the hardest hit by climate change with several drivers of change.

• Livelihoods, economy, trade, political representation and many other factors will be influenced and will demand long-term planning and preparedness for the effects of sea level rise and the lack of relevant legislation is one of the major challenges of planned relocation. The issue “climate refugees” indicates a direct causal relationship and events similar to armed conflict, ethnic, political or religious discrimination.

• Global Perspective: The international security apparatus like the UN Security Council, European Council, NATO, Australian ONA, UK DCDC, MOD, FCO and National Security Strategy, Globally recognized Non-Governmental Organisations like the Centre for Naval Analysis, CSIS-Brookings, Christian Aid and IISD have too stressed on practical implications of CC issue for long.

• Climate change is a contributing factor to instability and climate change effects are mediated through water scarcity, drought, desertification, land degradation and food insecurity emphasizing the need for risk assessment and management that take these factors into consideration.

• Bangladesh Perspective and its Efforts to Reduce Security and Conflict Drivers: Climate change has a significant impact on the overall GDP of Bangladesh, risking 7 percent of the country’s GDP and putting the lives of 23 million people at high risk having significant impact on the labor force, huge displacement risks. Bangladesh has set global example for tackling climate change crisis through a number of steps.

13 • Evidences show that there is no direct and linear relationship between climate change and violent conflict, but under certain circumstances climate-related change can influence factors that lead to conflict. Also, there is no evidence of interstate conflicts where climate change is a direct or indirect cause, but climate-related effects will grow in magnitude with consequences in space and time that are difficult to predict.

• Climate change causes extreme weather events play out during a short time but their poverty generating effects may become permanent, chronic and measurable over generations. The same physical and biological climate- related phenomena have dramatically different impact depending on how societies are governed and able to adapt to stress

• The interaction of climate-related phenomena means that they cannot be managed as single issues by actors who function independently of each other. Experience shows that excessive stress on societies in the form of sudden or gradual crisis events tends to reinforce already existing vulnerability, exposure and inequality. Growing natural resource scarcity may lead to local competition which becomes unmanageable in the absence of institutions for conflict resolution.

• However, to reduce the risk of conflict, policies and strategies need to consider the importance of good governance, interaction between sectors and policy areas, as well as unintended negative effects of climate adaptation or emission reductions, including those that influence land, water and forest tenure. Hence, appropriate policies for conflict prevention are needed to reduce inequalities and develop poor areas.

Session - 1: Keynote Paper - 3: “Climate Change and Water: Global to Local Aspects” presented by Prof. Dr. Md. Mafizur Rahman.

• Bangladesh faces floods, prolonged waterlogging during the wet season and droughts, a significant reduction in water availability, salinity, intrusion, over-extraction of water, contamination of water during dry season. Due to increased weather extremes, caused by climate change, the coastal communities fall at high risk of casualties and damages. Increasing salinity

14 is causing skin diseases, impairment of women health, loss in agriculture, ecological damage and thus affecting health, biodiversity and economy.

• Climate change is demonstrated through some major changes of the drivers like human intervention, development, economies, energy etc. The governments and the nations face serious challenges in order to determine the scale of protection for sustainability at an optimum cost. The more population on earth indicates more consumption and more emissions, which intensifies climate change.

• Water is one of the resources going to be affected greatly. Thus ensuring the quality of water is a major issue in the recent times since the population density makes use of a huge volume of water which needs to be managed properly for further use and reuse. Pollution control is, thus, a major issue in the recent world especially for the countries like Bangladesh. This trend of pollution control has connection with climate change induced uncertainties which are related to varying amounts of water availability that the industries need.

• Both climatic and non-climatic drivers have changed natural freshwater systems and are expected to continue to do so. Adaptive measures influence the exposure and vulnerability of human beings and ecosystems to water- related risks.

• For scarcity of fresh water, people adapted alternate livelihood options like shrimp culture which causes salinity in the soil. Adaptations differ in urban areas from that for the rural areas. Rainwater harvesting is a potential option for adaptation due to climate change. Rainwater harvesting however is an expensive option for the urban areas. Rural areas adaptation to climate change around water resources were considered in the coastal areas. The concept of protective ponds was introduced in the coastal rural areas to mitigate the problem. Rainwater was stored in the ponds and people around the areas were allowed to collect water maintaining regulations that ensure safety of water quality.

15 Session - 2: Keynote Paper - 1: “Security Paradigm of International Labor Migration and Development: An Overview of the State of Bangladeshi Migrant Labors” presented by Prof. Dr. Khondoker Mokaddem Hossain.

• After the Cold War, the globalization process and open market economy have brought new and challenging dimensions to our understanding of security and migration in the context of paradigm shift. Therefore, the scholars, security experts, development theorists, experts and researchers of migration have emphasized to the concept of security since it was first closely connected with migrants in the early 1990s.

• It has many important global, economic, political, cultural and social implications from the perspective of abuse, exploitation, uncertainty, development needs, and human security. At the same time, in the context of domestic savings and investments, income from remittances and global development and connectivity, the labor migration has tremendous impacts and implications.

• From the perspective of human security, international labor migration has grossly failed to provide adequate safeguard and protecting worker’s vital freedoms. It has also failed to both protecting workers from critical and pervasive threats and empowering the workers to take charge of their own lives.

• Each year, more than 400,000 workers leave the Bangladesh for overseas employment. Problems faced by Bangladeshi migrants include: high fees for migration charged by recruitment agencies, especially for low skilled jobs; low wages, lack of information on migration opportunities and risks; discrimination, exploitation and abuse while overseas; and insufficient services to protect the rights of workers (ILO, 2018). According to Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target 10.7, Bangladesh committed to facilitate by 2030 the ‘orderly, safe, and responsible migration and mobility of people and workers through effective implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies.’

16 • The movement of migrant workers should be looked at comprehensively, taking into account the political, civil, security, economic and social dimensions affecting worker’s decision to move (Commission on Human Security 2003).

• The policy formulators need to examine the conditions under which migrant workers work abroad and identify measures that will prevent avoidable exploitation, physical, mental sexual abuse, torture and humiliation, uncertainty, insecurity, discrimination and deprivation. Finally, there is a need for a policy shift in the way in which international labor migration is dealt with.

Session - 2: Keynote Paper - 2: Cross Border Forced and Voluntary Migration and Non-Traditional Security Discourse” presented by Dr. Tasneem Siddiqui.

• It deals with securitization of cross border migration in the South Asian context with particular reference to Rohingya population of Myanmar, Bengali population in Assam and migration of professionals and workers between India and Bangladesh.

• Rohingya population was considered as integral part of Myanmar during its independence and up to 1962. After the military takeover that year the securitization process of the Rohingyas began. And they were categorised as temporary residents. Framing of discriminatory laws pertaining to marriage, property and freedom of religion and freedom of movement, forced labour, forced re-location were the acts of securitization. By 1978, Persecution of Rohingyas reached a state when an overwhelming segment had to flee the country and became refugees.

• The securitization of Bengali population of Assam began given the situation of lack of access to the overall economic development of India, Recent steps of National Register of Citizens and Citizenship Amendment Act have completed the securitization process of the Bengalis/ Muslim Bengalis in India. Since 2000, Successive governments of India and a section of the Indian civil society have identified migrants from Bangladesh as a threat to their state and societal security.

17 • A sizeable number of Indian migrants are also working in Bangladesh being the 4th or 5th largest remittance source country of India according to State Bank of India. Migration of these workers from India to Bangladesh has not been securitized.

• Securitization of migration does not ensure increased level of security of the referent object, the state. Rather it brings new threats to human security of those who migrate.

• The de-securitization of migration can be done by addressing the challenges of migration through political process.

• Repealing the discriminatory aspects of the citizenship laws needed to respect pluralism and diversity.

Session - 2: Keynote Paper - 3: Migration: The Security Dimension of a Global Phenomena” presented by Mr. Asif Munier.

• ‘Migration’, one of the biggest global phenomena in the 21st century, can be considered as human mobility across countries, regions and continents.

• Its root causes and impacts are multi-faceted – human induced or climate induced, geo politics, economic conditions, social urges to build kinship across borders, reunite with families disconnected through borders – and so on. With the evolvement of stronger Border States, the evolution of global migration process is ever increasingly facing the notion of securitization. Although the international instruments and the regional consultations on migration are strong on human rights of migrants, there is not enough strong evidence of how securitization of migrants have been or can be addressed based on such regional and international instruments/processes.

• Before considering the securitization of migration, it is also important to put into context that migration is also beneficial for the migrants, the country of their origin, the country of their destination and the citizens of that country – for all in most cases. In many cases the root causes would indicate that migrants are not always responsible at least not entirely

18 for any perceived or actual threat for national or community security. Contribution to sustainable development, contribution to public finances, complementing local labour force in the country of destination , increasing trade and investment flows between countries of origin and destination, building transnational networks etc are some globally acknowledged benefits of migration.

• It would be a better world if the benefits of migration for all humans could be remembered and valued by all humans across the globe. Migrants are part of the reality of human civilization and without the cross exchange of cultures and experiences, the world we live in will not be as dynamic as it is today. Bangladesh is a top workforce sending country (Bangladeshi workers in 165 countries). In 2018 Bangladeshis migrants remitted US$15.54 billion (BB). Men remit more than women because they earn more, but women send back a greater portion of their earnings (72% women; 54 % men)

• The main security challenges related to Bangladeshi migrants are at one hand related to the perceptions and myths about migrants from a small South Asian country, on the other hand it is also about the cultural differences and barriers to communication. Besides, poor governance and awareness resulting in irregular migration and undocumented migrants in destination country – exploitation and conflict with the rule of law, high profile incidents (or probable incidents) of violent extremism in recent years, involving Bangladeshis – in Bangladesh and abroad – notion of labelling ‘Bangladeshi Muslims as terrorists’ etc. are some of the security challenges of Bangladeshi migrants.

• The positive image of Bangladeshis, the tradition of culture of peace and secularism needs to be upfront globally.

19 Opening Address of Acting Commandant, NDC Major General A K M Abdullahil Baquee, ndu, rcds, psc

Bismillahir Rahmanir Rahim Adviser to the Honorable Prime Minister (Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Affairs) Esteemed Faculty Members of NDC, Course Members of National Defence Course and Armed Forces War Course 2019,

Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, Assalamu Alaikum and Very Good Morning.

I am honored and privileged to welcome you at the Seminar on ‘Non- Traditional Security Challenges in a Globalized World: A Common Strategy for Developing Countries’.

Bangladesh is graduating from lower middle income country to middle income country by implementing vision 21 declared by Hon’ble Prime Minister of the Government of the Peoples’ Republic of Bangladesh and advancing with her vision 2041 to take Bangladesh at par with the developed countries. Acting for environmental security is one of the goals of Vision – 2041. Considering the present national as well as global concerns of Climate Change impacts as one of the most important security issue of the world, we have organized this seminar including ‘climate change’ and ‘migration’ as core concern. The aim of this seminar is to understand through discussion the potential climate change risks and their impacts on sustainable development and find out the ways to overcome the security threats both at national and at global context.

Non -Traditional security issues are challenges to the survival and wellbeing of people and states that primarily arise out of climate change, resource scarcity, diseases, natural disaster, irregular migration, food shortage, human and drug trafficking, transnational crimes, etc. Environmental security is treated as ‘Non- Traditional Security’ (NTS). We know that the rise of the sea level, unmanaged

20 floods, drought and climate-induced disasters resulted in resource scarcity. This led to the race for resource, which in turn, caused security complexity and conflict.

As environment is the major determinant of the physical, social, cultural, economic factors related to survival of any individual or community, threats like Climate Change has dire consequences to both states and societies. Again migration is also treated as one of the Non- Traditional security threat and is interlaced with other security issues one resulting from another. For example- environmental insecurity compels people to migrate and migration host community may feel insecure.

Distinguished Guests,

Environmentalists and other scientists say things are going from bad to worse due to the effects of climate change. In 1994, Robert D. Kaplan cautioned that ‘the political and strategic impact of surging populations, spreading disease, deforestation and soil erosion, water depletion, air pollution, and, possibly rising sea levels, overcrowded regions like the Nile Delta and Bangladesh will prompt mass migrations and incite group conflict’. In addition to traditional security threats, the world community after the Cold War has confronted with new types of problems such as human rights violation, economic crisis, environmental degradation, resource depletion, drug trafficking, epidemics, crimes and social injustices.

Bangladesh is the most vulnerable nations to CC, ranking seven among the most severely affected countries globally. CC has already impacted several non-traditional security areas including food, water, health and migration in Bangladesh. As these impacts worsen, Bangladesh’s security issues are suffering through a chain of cross- cutting events including poverty, malnutrition, resource scarcity, crimes, ethnic conflicts and terrorism.

Bangladesh would need to prepare for long-term adaptation strategy and it is necessary to identify all present vulnerabilities and future opportunities, adjusting priorities and trade policies in the agricultural sector while promoting training and education throughout the masses in all possible spheres.

21 All of us know that the Rohingya issue is an age old issue for Bangladesh. Since the establishment of Bangladesh in 1971, Rohingays were forcibly pushed to Bangladesh in different time frame, very few of them returned, few drifted to other countries and many, since then living here in Bangladesh. Under the able leadership of our Honourable Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Government of Bangladesh has addressed the issue very prudently. Despite many provocation, Bangladesh has maintained its stance of a role model in negotiating the issue through peaceful settlement. Now more than about one million Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals are living mostly in the South- east corner of Bangladesh. With the support of international community Bangladesh is providing necessary food, shelter, medicare, WASH (water, sanitation and hygiene), security and other basic needs to these large Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals for more than a year. But, a sustainable solution of the crisis is a dire necessity and the need of the time.

I hope, from the deliberation of the keynote speakers and through Question and Answer session of the seminar will be able to bring out comprehensive strategy options in addressing the crisis in a sustainable and pragmatic manner.

Climate Change is not a prediction any more- it is a fact- a phenomena that has multifarious security implications across the globe. Again NTS issues like migration cause societal and political instability and hence become threats to security.

These threats are often transnational that goes beyond national boundary, remedies also call for collective efforts. National solutions are often inadequate and would essentially require regional and multilateral cooperation.

Distinguish Guests,

I take this opportunity to convey our heartfelt thanks and gratitude to our today’s chief guest Honourable Adviser Dr. Towfiq-E-Elahi Chowdhury, Bir Bikram for his generous presence. Surely his presence has taken this seminar to a greater height. Despite his busy schedule he has spared much of his valuable time to attend this seminar. Surely it would greatly encouraged the course participants, the key note speakers and todays gathering. On behalf of

22 all present here and all members of National Defence College I would like to express our sincere thanks to you, Sir.

I would like to express my thankfulness and gratitude to all keynote speakers for accepting our invitation to deliver keynote speech at this seminar. I would also take this scope to convey my thanks to all the resource personnel who will be contributing in this seminar by giving their intellectual inputs. We deeply acknowledge your invaluable contribution on college curriculum, in fact you are the sources of inspiration for all our academic endeavors.

This seminar would not be successful without the presence of this gathering. I also acknowledge their vibrant participation. On behalf of all members of National Defence College and the participants of this seminar, I would extend my thanks for your generous presence. At the end, I would like to thank all faculty and course members of both the courses 2019 for arranging such a vibrant seminar on a very contemporary issue. I would also thank all the staffs of National Defence College who has worked relentlessly remaining behind the scene to make it a successful one.

Thank you very much, thank you all. Allah Hafez.

23 Speech of Chief Guest Dr. Towfiq-E-Elahi Chowdhury, Bir Bikram Adviser to the Hon’ble Prime Minister (Power, Energy & Mineral Resources Affairs)

Bismillahir Rahmanir Rahim Commandant, National Defence College, Distinguished Speakers of the Seminar, Faculty Members of NDC, Course Members of National Defence Course and Armed Forces War Course 2019 Ladies and Gentlemen, Assalamu Alaikum and Good Morning.

Let me express my heartfelt thanks and gratitude to National Defence College authority for inviting me as Chief Guest of the seminar. I have been delighted to witness the enlightening interaction among so many thinkers of this distinguished audience. On this auspicious occasion, I most respectfully remember the farsightedness of our Honorable Prime Minister, who envisioned establishing this premier institution back in 1998.

On February 5, 2014, the Honorable Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, declared at the National Parliament that her government would revise the Vision 2021 and propagate Vision 2041 by updating a number of targets so that by the year 2041 Bangladesh may become a prosperous and developed state by crossing the status of a middle income country. The Climate Change actions are also included in the government’s SDG goals.

Dear Audience,

Environmental stress, i.e. global impacts resulting from environmental change, depletion of ozone layer and trans-boundary pollution, may lead to a conflict. So the security issues should include environmental issues. The significance of environmental security extends far beyond the environmental sector.

24 Environmental degradation, resource depletion and natural disasters may have direct implications for the security of states and international community. So growing awareness of Environmental Law and Policy is a timely necessity.

Climate change presents a serious threat to the security. Domestically, the effects of climate change could overwhelm disaster-response capabilities. Internationally, climate change may cause humanitarian disasters, contribute to political violence, and undermine weak governments.

Climate change is increasingly one of the most serious national security threats that will have significant impacts on natural and coastal resources, ecosystem, human health and settlements, and thus affect human well-being. At the same time, it is likely to influence large scale human migration, and economic and social depression over scarce natural resources, leading the political systems to greater uncertainty. Crucial for action is addressing climate change threats to small island states and states that are least developed, as environmental destabilization may lead to a major economic, environmental and political crisis that may not just affect some states but the world as a whole.

Bangladesh should place emphasis on capacity building and disaster management, institutional and infrastructure strengthening, development of research and low carbon technologies in order to create an inclusive and truly comprehensive mitigation scheme. Governments should develop national action plans on climate change adaptation and to allocate fixed proportion of national budgets to check on the effects of climate. Engagement in constructive debate on the issues of technology and production transfer should be encouraged.

Many of the worst climate impacts could still be avoided by holding global warming below 2°C, and urgent action is needed to build resilience through economic development to risks to agriculture, water resources and coastal infrastructure. With higher population and rapid industrialization, Bangladesh should be on its way to developing a low-carbon path given it initially receives significant financial and technical support from the international community and national goals of economic growth and social development is not hampered.

25 Distinguished Audience,

As I could understand, the keynote speakers have wholeheartedly tried to demonstrate the gravity of the most serious global concern, i.e. the impacts of climate change and environmental security, migration and their impacts on national security. The interactive session has been very lively, meaningful and thought provoking. I am sure we all have become more aware of the serious current issue after this seminar and will be able to derive important lessons from today’s discussion. We hope that we shall be able to act in the right track so that we may contribute in tackling the security concern for our country as well as the world.

I would like to congratulate the keynote speakers, the moderators and the audience for contributing by your effective and meaningful participation and making this seminar successful. I sincerely hope and pray for your well-being, peace and prosperity in life and a very bright future. I congratulate the National Defence College for making marvelous progress and accomplishments so far and wish the College greater success and laurels in all days to come. I thank the Commandant of National Defence College for allowing me to be a part of this memorable occasion of this seminar and NDC. I once again wish the National Defence Course Members and Armed Forces War Course Members 2019 a very bright professional career and effective leading role in respective fields. I thank all the guests of audience for making this occasion successful by their gracious presence.

Thank you. Long live Bangladesh.

26 Session - 1

Session Chair: Professor Md Kawser Ahmed Department of Oceanography, Faculty of Earth & Environmental Sciences Dhaka University

Keynote Speakers

Keynote Paper - 1: Climate Change: Impacts on Economy and Security By- Professor Dr. Hassan Mahmud

Keynote Paper - 2: Climate Change: Impact on Security and Conflict Situations By- Mr. A K M Mamunur Rashid

Keynote Paper - 3: Climate Change and Water: Global to Local Aspects By- Professor Md. Mafizur Rahman

27 Keynote Paper - 1 Climate Change: Impacts on Economy and Security

Engineer Hassan Mahmud, PhD Professor, Department of Environmental Science and Management, North South University

Security: The word “security” comes from the Latin phrase sine cura, which means “without worry”. However, in the past security normally referred to national military or defense security. It was witnessed that this definition has changed to economic security in the 1970s due to oil crisis. The term “environmental security” first appeared in the 1987 landmark report titled “Our Common Future”; this was the first authoritative source that broached a linkage between security risks and environmental degradation. Climate security is the latest accretion to this discourse, pioneered by former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher when she declared at the UN General Assembly in 1989 that climate change threatened life itself that “we must battle to preserve”. Over 70 percent of the countries which submitted their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the UNFCCC have included climate change in their national security strategies. The General Assembly on June 3, 2009 passed Resolution 63/281 in which it acknowledged that the impacts of climate change could have serious security implications, reaffirming the UNFCCC as the key forum to address climate change.

Extreme Weather: One of the most visible consequences of a global warming is an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. It was found that the number of heat waves, cold waves, heavy downpours, and major tropical hurricanes has increased globally, and the strength of these events has increased, too. In the past extreme weather events happened however, frequencies were low. Major hurricane hit Bangladesh in 1991 after 1970. However, in recent years extreme weather events are taking place almost every year.

28 A measure of the economic impact of extreme weather is the increasing number of billion-dollar disasters. Severe heat weather can damage populations and crops due to potential dehydration or hyperthermia, heat cramps, heat expansion and heat stroke. Some statics are given below:

Heat Waves: In early August 2001 an intense heatwave (above 35 °C with high humidity) hit the eastern seaboard of the United States and neighboring southeastern Canada. New York, New Jersey tied its all-time record high temperature of 41 °C (106 °F) with a heat index of over 50 °C (122 °F).

In April 2002 a summer-like heat wave in spring affected much of the Eastern United States.

The European heat wave of 2003 affected much of western Europe, breaking temperature records. In Portugal, the temperatures reached as high as 47 °C (117 °F) in the south. Nearly 35,000 people died.

The European heat wave of 2006 was the second massive heat wave to hit the continent in four years, with temperatures rising to 40 °C (104 °F) in Paris; in Ireland and some other parts of Europe.

The 2006 North American heat wave affected a wide area of the United States and parts of neighboring Canada during July and August 2006. Over 220 deaths were reported. Temperatures in some parts of South Dakota exceeded 46 °C (115 °F). Also, California experienced temperatures that were extraordinarily high, with records ranging from 38 to 54 °C (100 to 130 °F).

The European heat wave of 2007 affected primarily south-eastern Europe during late June through August. Bulgaria experienced its hottest year on record, with previously unrecorded temperatures above 45 °C (113 °F). The 2007 Greek forest fires were associated with the heat wave.

During the 2007 Asian heat wave, the Indian city of Datia experienced temperatures of 48 °C (118 °F).

In January 2008, Australia’s Northern Territory recorded ten consecutive days of temperatures above 40 °C (104 °F) with the average temperature for that

29 month being 39.8 °C (103.6 °F). Other parts of Australia also experienced high temperatures of above 35 °C (95 °F) for many consecutive days.

In early 2009, Australia was hit again by a heat wave with temperatures ranging from 40 °C (104 °F) to 48 °C (118 °F). During this heat wave Victoria suffered from large bushfires which killed 173 people and destroyed more than 2,500 homes. There were also over half a million people without power as the heatwave blew transformers and the power grid was overloaded.

In August 2009, Argentina experienced a period of unusual and exceptionally hot weather during 24–30 August.

Tropical Cyclones: Tropical cyclones that cause extreme destruction are rare, although when they occur, they can cause great amounts of damage or thousands of fatalities.

The 1970 Bhola cyclone is considered to be the deadliest tropical cyclone on record, which killed around 300,000 people, after striking the densely populated Ganges Delta region of Bangladesh on November 13, 1970.

Typhoon Nina killed nearly 100,000 in China in 1975 due to a 100-year flood that caused 62 dams including the Banqiao Dam to fail.

Flooding as shown below after 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, which killed around 140,000 people.

30 Tropical Storm Thelma in November 1991 killed thousands in the Philippines, although the strongest typhoon to ever make landfall on record was Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013, causing widespread devastation in Eastern Visayas, and killing at least 6,300 people in the Philippines alone. In 1982, the unnamed tropical depression that eventually became Hurricane Paul killed around 1,000 people in Central America. Katrina killed at least 1,836 people after striking Louisiana and Mississippi as a major hurricane in August 2005. Harvey killed at least 90 people in August 2017 after making landfall in Texas as a low-end Category 4 hurricane. There are many other tropical cyclones are recorded so far.

Precipitation Pattern: Climate change directly influences precipitation and intensifies the global hydrological cycle. A warming climate will increase evaporation, leading to greater precipitation intensity because of the increased amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. As a result, storm-affected areas are likely to experience increases in precipitation and increased risk of floodingin coastal communities around the world, while areas located far away from storm tracks are likely to experience less precipitation and increased risk of drought. Due to warmer conditions, evapotranspiration would increase, which will reduce groundwater to support plant growth. If there is less snow, less water will be stored in the snows. This will lead to fewer crops in cold countries like Canada.As precipitation pattern will change, there will be rain when not needed and there will be no rain when it is needed most. When it will rain would rain heavily and will increase surface runoff or flooding. Due to this change in precipitation agriculture will fail. Food Security: Climate change will affect all four dimensions of food security, such as food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food systems stability. It will have an impact on human health, livelihood assets, food production and distribution channels, as well as changing purchasing power and market flows due toincreases in temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, changes in extreme weather events, and reductions in water availability, which may result in reduced agricultural productivity. Impact on Health: The overall health effects of a changing climate are likely to be overwhelmingly negative. Climate change affects social and environmental determinants of health – clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure shelter.

31 Extreme high air temperatures contribute directly to deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory disease, particularly among elderly people. In the heat wave of summer 2003 in Europe for example, more than 70 000 excess deaths were recorded.High temperatures also raise the levels of ozone and other pollutants in the air that exacerbate cardiovascular and respiratory disease.

Impact on Forest: Climate change will likely alter the frequency and intensity of forest disturbances, including wildfires, storms, insect outbreaks, and the occurrence of invasive species. The productivity and distribution of forests could be affected by changes in temperature, precipitation and the amount of carbon dioxide in the air. Climate change will likely worsen the problems already faced by forests from land development and air pollution.

Impact on Coastal Area: Climate change threatens coastal areas due to the sea level rise. Global warming make sea level rise due tothermal expansion of sea water and melting of polar and mountain ice. It is estimated to be up to 1 meter by 2100. If this happens, the coastal zone (100 km from the sea) will be flooded, which contains more than 1.5 billion people, 1 in 4 people. 17 out of 20 of the world’s largest cities will be impacted.

Bangladesh Context: Bangladesh is recognized worldwide as one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of global warming and climate change. This is due to its unique geographic location, dominance of floodplains, low elevation from the sea, high population density, high levels of poverty, and overwhelming dependence on nature, its resources and services. The country has a history of extreme climatic events claiming millions of lives and destroying past development gains. Variability in rainfall pattern, combined with increased snow melt from the Himalayas, and temperature extremes are resulting in crop damage and failure, preventing farmers and those dependent from meaningful earning opportunities. Global warming and climate change threatens settlements and the number of people displaced from their land due to riverbank erosion, permanent inundation and sea level rise which are increasing rapidly every year.

32 Keynote Paper - 2 Climate Change: Impact on Security and Conflict Situations

AKM Mamunur Rashid Climate Change Specialist at UNDP, Bangladesh

Introduction

The nexus of climate change-conflict-security as a driver to an assured future towards sustainability and resilience remains rarely debated. There is a vicious cycle between poverty, inequality and conflict, one exacerbating the other, while climate change continues to hit the poorest the hardest increasing conflict potential directly and through migration. Violent large-scale conflict worsens the prospects for poverty reduction, and makes zero poverty target almost impossible. Hence, in-depth research is needed to identify all poverty-causing impact of conflict and forced migration, before these issues are increasingly being taken as a given. This paper discusses about evolving intersections and the challenges intertwined within the evidences that surround linkage between climate change, security and conflict. Also, stressing on how this remains a critical trajectory in the way of finding new and innovative entry points towards development in the humanitarian sphere.

Climate Change: A Global Crisis in the Face of Security

There are a number of evidences that suggest that poor countries, poor regions and poor people are the hardest hit by climate change with several drivers of change.

Water Security: This includes the availability of water for society making agricultural production increasingly uncertain, particularly in tropical and arid and semi-arid regions. Reduced rainfall and increasing variation in its distribution in time and space is already influence the productivity of agriculture and livestock. Another concern is that agreements regulating the

33 use of transboundary water between nations have assumed stable flows and have no space or preparedness for managing unpredictable water volume variations over time.

Food Security: All aspects of food security are influenced by global climate change. The crisis had long-term consequences for the most marginalized, particularly women, through negative coping mechanisms that people were forced to apply. It also led to social unrest in many countries, particularly where authorities were unable to dampen its effects.

Sea Level Rise: The effects of sea level rise have always remained difficult to predict as humanity has not coped with anything similar in modern times. Many of the world’s largest cities are located near coasts and will become affected, just as small island states in the Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the Caribbean. Livelihoods, economy, trade, political representation and many other factors will be influenced and will demand long-term planning and preparedness, which should be possible given that the changes will happen relatively slowly. So far, efforts at planned relocation met major challenges. There is no relevant legislation and it is unclear how relocation should be financed, who should be compensated, where communities under threat should move, and when and by whom decisions should be made.

Extreme Events: With climate change has emergence more frequent extreme weather events, while it has been becoming more unpredictable in time and space. This does not only mean storms, floods and droughts, but also to longer periods of extreme heat, the latter an increasingly recognized health hazard when combined with high humidity. Extreme events disturb public services and economic activities and cause losses in terms of physical assets and dead and injured people, while the most vulnerable people remain as poor households who tend to live in the most hazardous environments.

Migration: The issue of people migrating as a result of climate change has been given much attention – the notion of “climate refugees” indicates a direct causal relationship and events similar to the threats against human security that force people to flee during armed conflict or because of ethnic, political or religious discrimination.

34 Global Perspective: Viewpoint of the UN and the Government

In policy regimes associated with the international security apparatus like the UN Security Council, discussions have ballooned towards practical implications for policy makers and operational agencies (ODI, 2019). Not solely by the environmentalists, these discussions have flourished at the UNGA 2009, US National Intelligence Estimate 2008, European Council 2008, NATO 2008 onwards, Australian ONA 2005 onwards, UK DCDC, MOD, FCO and National Security Strategy, German Planners 2005, inter alia. Globally recognized Non-Governmental Organisations like the Centre for Naval Analysis, CSIS- Brookings, Christian Aid and IISD have too stressed on this issue for long. Also, at the end of March, 2017, the Security Council adopted resolution 2349 on the conflict in the Lake Chad region, which explicitly identifies climate change as a contributing factor to instability, a unique step for the Security Council. The resolution says that climate change effects are mediated through water scarcity, drought, desertification, land degradation and food insecurity, and emphasizes the need for risk assessment and management that take these factors into consideration.

Drought and the Syrian Conflict

The hypothesis that climate change-related drought during the years before 2011 was a major causing factor behind the civil war in Syria has been given much attention, but is increasingly under question as simplistic and misleading. Instead, the Syria expert Francesca argued that decades of dysfunctional agricultural policies, overuse of land and groundwater and a sudden removal of fuel subsidies and simultaneous dramatic increases in global food prices, led to disastrous consequences under a repressive regime which had stifled all debate on a more sustainable use of water resources. The long drought, which may have been a result of climate change, possibly became a contributing factor to the conflict but the political situation and oppression played major roles. However, neighboring countries exposed to the same drought did not experience internal conflict.

35 The Case of East and West Africa

As part of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a special analysis has been made on the relationship between climate-related change and local, violent conflicts in East Africa and Sudan, through quantitative and qualitative methods using 44 studies between 1989 to 2015. It showed that conflicts around natural resources – land, pasture, water are particularly frequent where livestock rearing pastoralists are involved and sometimes these conflicts are exploited by external parties in their strategic search for power.

On the other hand, particular regions of West Africa including Northern Nigeria, Ghana, Cote D’Ivoire, Mali remain strongly disadvantaged in rainfall. Plus, there is the concern over agricultural productivity, lacking commercial crops, weaker infrastructure, education etc. which is dating from colonial times. Also, there are strong identity differences existing in the region including the inequalities vis-à-vis South (including political and cultural) which have led to violent conflicts. Not to mention the Cote d’Ivoire civil war or the Tuareg rebellion in Mali and the Boko Haram, Delta conflicts and middle belt communal conflicts in Nigeria, all of which makes sense of the fact that climate change is cause the situations to worsen with increased migration to South and to other countries.

What is the Global Trend?

Global data show large co-variation between fragility and the number of injured and killed in natural disasters. During 2004-14, 58 percent of such fatalities occurred in countries to be found among the top 30 on the Fragile States Index. Among these, 19 are among those least prepared to receive climate finance for adaptation. This does not necessarily mean that these countries are more affected by drought or floods, which are typically climate-related extreme events. But conflict weakens the ability of authorities and civil society to build disaster preparedness and implement risk reduction measures.

36 South Asian Perspective and the Case of Indus Valley

Combined with poor governance, climate change represents the largest and most global environmental variable to peace and security. Its impacts are set to fall disproportionately on the world’s most vulnerable populations, with the Asia Pacific region (worst in South Asia) facing some of the most widespread challenges (SIPRI, 2019)

The strained Indo-Pak relations have worsened by the melting Himalayas, while the ‘frozen conflict’ on the Siachen glacier remains the highest battlefield in the world, taking place at 19,000 feet. The glacier is located on the border between the two nations and conflict stems from geopolitical disputes. As water availability tightens, the rights to the water that feeds into the Indus Basin continue to be fought over. Those unable to irrigate their land for agriculture lose their livelihoods whilst simultaneously creating a food security issue. If these problems intensify, as predicted, the long history of interstate violence will continue to flare up again. Although there are several water-sharing agreements between these nations, their strength and longevity has remained uncertain. With climate change comes only further water uncertainties, and without stronger regional agreements, South Asia could suffer even greater security risks than are already present in the region.

Intra-state Tensions can Spread Conflicts?

Transboundary conflicts often make for more glamourous headlines, but intra-state violence is arguably more destabilizing. Years of intense drought in India has created deep hostility between vulnerable groups. These conditions can contribute to militancy, terrorism and organized crime, aggravating existing conflicts and giving rise to new ones. Unless policies to help ensure employment and economic status of the masses are implemented, this may be a dark glimpse into the future.

37 Climate Extremes, Increasing Role of South Asian Military Forces

While the climate-conflict connection remains divisive for academics, many military forces and national governments are convinced of its existence. South Asian militaries are already involved in assessing regions vulnerable to cyclones, droughts and floods, focusing on the populations in close proximity and the assistance they may need. Soldiers are being educated in potentially hostile situations between groups fighting over resources. Military aircrafts are being built to be able to carry relief supplies, remain airborne in extreme weather and utilize biofuels. By taking these extra precautions and acknowledging climate as an important factor, the risk of violence and threats to regional security are reduced. A report by the Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change (GMACCC) recommends climate security collaboration and integration as the cornerstone of long-term peace and security strategy in Asia (Ghazi et al., 2016). The study recommends that the region’s leaders strengthen cooperation to reduce the potential for widespread human suffering and further instability.

Bangladesh Perspective and its Efforts to Reduce Security and Conflict Drivers

Climate change has a significant impact on the overall GDP of Bangladesh, risking 7 percent of the country’s GDP and putting the lives of 23 million people at high risk. This has significant impact on the labor force, huge rural- urban migration and rural-rural migration or displacement risks- a situation that cities are not ready to absorb the face of unplanned urbanization. However, Bangladesh has set global example for tackling climate change crisis through a number of steps including system reform to mainstream climate change into national and local level planning, financing and budgeting process. Through process or practices reform and innovation, the country is advancing to make the country more climate responsive through investment across sectors. Continuous innovation with partners for promoting appropriate technology transfer for adaptation and mitigation is going on along with planning towards climate resilient urbanization and protecting environmental degradation in building resilience.

38 Conclusion

With the evidences, and extrapolated inferences, one can denote that there is no direct and linear relationship between climate change and violent conflict, but under certain circumstances climate-related change can influence factors that lead to or exacerbate conflict. It is a given that climate change causes extreme weather events play out during a short time but their poverty generating effects may become permanent, chronic and measurable over generations. The same physical and biological climate-related phenomena have dramatically different impact depending on how societies are governed and able to adapt to stress: although the context is decisive, whether it is about food security, extreme weather events or transboundary water management. Additionally, abnormal variation in the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall affects the access, price and quality of food; storms enhance the effects of sea- level rise in coastal cities; increasing temperature and humidity add strain on those who do physical labor while morbidity and the risk of pandemics grow. The interaction of climate-related phenomena means that they cannot be managed as single issues by actors who function independently of each other. Experience shows that excessive stress on societies in the form of sudden or gradual crisis events tends to reinforce already existing vulnerability, exposure and inequality. One should expect the same from climate-related events – their impact is not neutral and equal. Every strategy that aims to manage their consequences must distinguish between different social groups and strata and give specific attention to those already marginalized. Growing natural resource scarcity may then lead to local competition which becomes unmanageable in the absence of institutions for conflict resolution. Also, there is no evidence of interstate conflicts where climate change is a direct or indirect cause, but climate-related effects will grow in magnitude with consequences in space and time that are difficult to predict. However, to reduce the risk of conflict, policies and strategies need to consider the importance of good governance, interaction between sectors and policy areas, as well as unintended negative effects of climate adaptation or emission reductions, including those that influence land, water and forest tenure. Ongoing conflict also means that local and central authorities with little capacity will not prioritize protection against natural disasters. Hence, appropriate policies for conflict prevention

39 are needed to reduce inequalities and develop poor areas. Although the need is ‘recognised’ in discourse, in practice, the targets are all national and priority given to aggregate growth.

References

1. Peters, K., Mayhew, L., Borodyna, O., Clare, A., Nordqvist, P., Risi, L., Sparkman, T., Le Seve, M., Smith, O., Na Abou, M. and Measures, H. (2019) Climate change, conflict and security scan: April – July 2018. London: Overseas Development Institute.

2. Ghazi, TW., Muniruzzaman, ANM., Singh,. AK (2016) Climate Change & Security in South Asia: Cooperating For Peace. GMACCC. Available at: http://gmaccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Climate_Change_ and_Security_in_South_Asia.pdf

3. SIPRI (2019). Conflict, peace and security. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Available at: https://www.sipri.org/research/ conflict-peace-and-security [Accessed on: 4 February 2019]

40 Keynote Paper - 3 Climate Change and Water: Global to Local Aspects

Dr. Md. Mafizur Rahman Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, BUET

Bangladesh is a country where water plays a major role in economy and livelihood. Being the lowest riparian of the major Himalayan Rivers, Bangladesh has no control over the huge cross boundary flow. Having a flat topography, it also cannot store the huge monsoon water. As a result, Bangladesh faces floods, prolonged waterlogging during the wet season and droughts, a significant reduction in water availability, salinity intrusion, over-extraction of water, contamination of water during dry season. Coastal areas are more vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters.

Due to increased weather extremes, caused by climate change, the coastal communities fall at high risk of casualties and damages. Shyamnagar Upazila at Satkhira district has been selected as a study area. Being very close to the sea these areas face natural disasters more frequently. Cyclone, flood, salinity intrusion, sedimentation, water logging are common problems in this region. As most of the people are poor and living below the poverty line, the situation becomes worse during and after any climatic hazards (Bhuiyan, et al., 2015). The major rivers of the study area are either transboundary or they receive water from trans-boundary rivers. Some of the main rivers of this region are- Kholpetua, Kalindi, Madar and Kopotakkho. Due to increasing withdrawal of the Ganga River in its upstream, its distributaries are slowly facing death for not receiving their winter flow. This decreases groundwater recharge and lowers groundwater level. As a result salinity intrusion and scarcity of freshwater becomes a major problem. This causes lack of freshwater for drinking, agriculture, aquaculture etc. For scarcity of fresh water, people adapted alternate livelihood options like shrimp culture which causes salinity in the soil. Increasing salinity is causing skin diseases, impairment of women health, loss in agriculture, ecological damage and thus affecting health, biodiversity and economy.

41 Climate change is demonstrated through some major changes of the drivers. Climate change itself is a manifestation of a number of anthropogenic reasons. Human intervention, development, economies, energy and so many other parameters are in the process of change. These combinations of natural and manmade causes are posing serious threat to the prediction of future. There are great deviations in the future we predict and the realities. The deviation is more when the prediction is a relatively longer term. Thus the preventive and protective measures in order to mitigate the adverse impacts of development become uncertain. These are serious challenges ahead of the governments and the nations in order to determine what scale of protection will suffice the sustainability at an optimum cost. For the developing countries of the world where the financial resources are scarce compared to the need and size of population, optimization is a serious issue. These are the countries where the value addition per spending of finance is higher because of the high population density.

Bangladesh’s population is growing rapidly and will pass 200 million by 2045 (medium variant projection) (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division [UNDESA] 2015). The population of Bangladesh has almost doubled over the last 35 years, to about 160.99 million people in 2015 from 81.36 million in 1980 (World Bank 2016). Population growth results in an increase in the absolute number of the population and an increase in the standard of living. These two determinants are associated with extraction and consumption of natural resources. The emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is a function of total population because every mouth has to be fed. The growing population is putting stress on agricultural production systems that aim to secure food production (Vetter et al. 2017). On the contrary, food production contributes a substantial amount of GHGs, including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide to the atmosphere (Cohen 2010; Pitesky et al. 2009; Smith & Martino 2007; Steinfeld et al. 2006; Vetter et al. 2017; Wolf et al. 2010). Agriculture has a noteworthy contribution to ensure national food security, especially for developing countries like Bangladesh. Methane generated from agricultural practices is the second major source of GHGs emission in the world (United States Environmental Protection Agency [USEPA] 2018a). Furthermore, industrialisation and development interventions contribute enormous GHGs emissions (He 2014). GHGs are the most important driver of observed climate change on Earth since the mid-20th century (USEPA 2018b).

42 In sober fact, the more population on Earth indicates more consumption and more emissions, which intensifies climate change.

Water is one of the resources going to be affected greatly. There are two things which need to be ensured when we talk about water availability. One is the quantity of flow and the other is quality. Water must be available in terms of quantity as per the requirement and quality of the water must meet the target area where it is needed and used for. Thus ensuring the quality of water is a major issue in the recent times since the population density makes use of a huge volume of water which needs to be managed properly for further use and reuse. Pollution control is, thus, a major issue in the recent world especially for the countries like Bangladesh. High cost of pollution control and poor vigilance to ensure pollution control initiative are the major reasons behind this poor pollution control. Technologies for pollution control need engineering expertise. Industries need pollution control technologies not only to minimize contamination but also treatment to that extent so that the treated wastewater can be recycled and reused. This trend of pollution control has connection with climate change induced uncertainties which are related to varying amounts of water availability that the industries need.

Another major impact of Climate change is hazards and events. Both climatic and non-climatic drivers have changed natural freshwater systems and are expected to continue to do so. For example increased numbers of power plants by the riversides need intake of river water for the plants. This causes a release of water back to the rivers at a higher temperature. This brings a difference in the river water in terms of temperature. This increased temperature in river water may cause a migration of the fish we used to find before the power plant was operational. They also stimulate adaptive measures. Hydrological and water management changes interact with each other and with measures to mitigate climate change. Adaptive measures influence the exposure and vulnerability of human beings and ecosystems to water-related risks.

Adaptations differ in urban areas from that for the rural areas. Rainwater harvesting is a potential option for adaptation due to climate change. Rainwater harvesting however is an expensive option for the urban areas. Catchment size which is the rooftop for rainwater collection is an important parameter for cost optimization for rainwater harvesting specially in the urban context. Data were

43 collected concerning assessing the roof size of buildings in different wards in Dhaka. The areas of roves were assessed in order to determine the zones showing higher potential for rainwater harvesting compared to areas with lower potential. The outcomes of the study opens the door for use of big data in climate change adaptation strategies for urban areas.

Rural areas adaptation to climate change around water resources were considered in the coastal areas. Coastal people suffer from acute shortage of water for domestic use. Shrimp culture industries pose a serious threat allowing saline water intruding deep inland for better farming. The concept of protective ponds was introduced in the coastal rural areas to mitigate the problem. Some ponds were excavated with the facilities of limitation of access of citizens except for the caretakers. The ponds were fenced all around and the bottoms were lined. This lined pond has minimum loss due to infiltration through the pond bottom. Rainwater was stored in the ponds and people around the areas were allowed to collect water maintaining regulations that ensure safety of water quality.

At rural area rainwater harvesting was also promoted. The harvested rainwater needs to be bacteriologically acceptable in terms of quality. Harvested rainwater was disinfected using UV lights that get energy from renewable (household) solar system.

Impacts of Climate change are observed differently in the Urban and the rural areas globally. These impacts are more sensitive in the context of Bangladesh since the availability of services and qualities of life in Urban and Rural are quite distinctly different. Different areas have different challenges and impact of climate is going to be unique for different areas.

References

1. Bhuiyan, M., Didar-Ul-Islam, S. & Ramanathan, A., 2015. Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment in Coastal Region of Bangladesh. Journal of Climate Change.

2. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division [UNDESA] 2015 World Population Prospects 2015: The 2015 Revision.

44 Session - 2

Session Chair: Professor Dr. Delwar Hossain Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka

Keynote Speakers

Keynote Paper - 1: Security Paradigm of International Labor Migration and Development: An Overview of the State of Bangladeshi Migrant Labors By- Khondoker Mokaddem Hossain, PhD

Keynote Paper - 2: Cross Border Forced and Voluntary Migration and Non-Traditional Security Discourse By- Dr. Tasneem Siddiqui

Keynote Paper - 3: Migration: The Security Dimension of a Global Phenomena By- Mr Asif Munier

45 Keynote Paper - 1 Security Paradigm of International Labor Migration and Development: An Overview of the State of Bangladeshi Migrant Labors

Professor Dr. Khondoker Mokaddem Hossain Pro Vice Chancellor Bangladesh Open University

Abstract

The old Cold War framework of security as related to war and peace, international relations and foreign affairs has given way to a multiplicity of competing notions, including international security, regional security, internal security, human security and even social security. At the same time, migration, especially international labor migration has become a hotly sensitive issue, characterized by an enormous difference of approaches, perspectives, theories, paradigm, framework, views and objectives. Further, the globalization process and open market economy have brought new and challenging dimensions to our understanding of security and migration in the context of paradigm shift. Therefore, the scholars, security experts, development theorists, experts and researchers of migration have emphasized to the concept of security since it was first closely connected with migrants in the early 1990s. The initial reaction was frequently a total or partial rejection of any association between the two, emphasizing the usually negative effects of the security discourse on migrants. But the security paradigm is now becoming one of the inseparable issues that it is impossible to ignore the impact of security concerns on migration and development. The broad objective of this paper is therefore to examine the security paradigm of international labor migration. The specific objectives are: security concern of migrants in the context of globalization, threat, uncertainty, political economy, exploitation and policy implications. This paper specifically examines how the process of international labor migration from Bangladesh

46 to Middle East, Gulf regions, and South and Asian Countries, both in the informal and formal sectors, are usually exposed to physical, sexual (mostly female migrants) and psychological abuses, and experience severe exploitation, threat and uncertainty. Finally, the paper emphasized that there is a need for a policy shift in the way in which international labor migration is dealt with.

Key words: Migration, Security, Globalization, Threat, Political Economy and Policy Implications.

Introduction

Since the mid 1970s, labor migration from Bangladesh to the Middle East, Gulf and Far East, South and South East Asian countries from Bangladesh has been increasing very rapidly. It has many important global, economic, political,cultural and social implicationsfrom the perspective of abuse, exploitation, uncertainty, development needs, and human security. At the same time, in the context of domestic savings and investments, income from remittances and global development and connectivity, the impact of labor migration has tremendous impacts and implications, need to be analyzed.

Objective of the Study

The broad objective of the study is to analyze the nature of security paradigm of International labor migration.

The specific objectives are to assess the different approach, theories, framework and paradigm of security perspectives. Moreover, the paper critically appraise the nature of abuse, torture, humiliation, exploitation and deprivation of international labor migrants. Finally the paper highlights the policy implications.

The Methods

The study heavily relied on the secondary sources of related data and information. The sources include text, journals, reports, and investigative overview.

47 An Overview on the State of Bangladeshi Migrant Labors

Each year, more than 400,000 workers leave the Bangladesh for overseas employment. Problems faced by Bangladeshi migrants include: high fees for migration charged by recruitment agencies, especially for low skilled jobs; low wages, lack of information on migration opportunities and risks; discrimination, exploitation and abuse while overseas; and insufficient services to protect the rights of workers (ILO, 2018).

According to RMMRU and BMET, the approximate number of Bangladeshi workers working in abroad, especially in different countries of Middle East, Gulf region and South and South Asian countries are about 12.2 millions.

The trend of female migration from Bangladesh has been increasing since 2015. In 201, female migration increased by 36 percent from the previous year. It registered an increase by 14 percent in 2016 and percent in 2017 (RMMRU, 2018).

According to BMET, most of the Bangladeshi short-term contract workers mainly go to the Gulf and other Arab states. 2018 was no exception. Almost 64.48 percent of the total number of workers who had migrated from Bangladesh in 2018 went to the Gulf and other Arab states. The majority of the remaining 35.52 per cent went to different South East Asian countries (Cited by RMMRU, 2018).

In a recent Study, conducted by the Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU, 2018) detailing the impact of migration on household income, expenditure and poverty. It has been pointed out that Bangladeshis who travel to the Gulf and the Southeast Asian countries leave behind a trail of loans undertaken to enable them to meet the large, upfront costs associated with finding jobs as expatriate workers -affecting family members in Bangladesh.

In another study it was found that thousands of cases of Bangladeshi women who travelled abroad to work and then found themselves as victims of sexual exploitation and also inhuman treatment not consistent with international legal regulations - they have also narrated how they were also trapped, kept

48 confined, tortured, humiliated by many Bangladeshi manpower recruitment agents and their brokers who had arranged for them to go to Middle East countries. According to the reporting of Karmojibee Nari (November 25, 2019), for the last ten years, at least 26752 dead bodies of female migrant labors have returned to Bangladesh from different countries of Middle East. Most of these works were subject to physical, mental and sexual torture by their employers and in some instances, by the recruiters and brokers (News Media Report, November 25, 2019).

The return of female migrant workers due to torture and abuse figured prominently in the media in 2018 and 2019. Several thousands of domestic workers have returned to Bangladesh since the beginning of 2018. They claimed to have faced a range of problems in the destination countries including physical torture and sexual abuse (RMMRU, 2018 and Media report, 2019).

The Framework, Approaches, Theories and Paradigm of Studying International Labor Migration from Security Perspectives

From the perspective of human security, international labor migration has grossly failed to provide adequate safeguard and protecting worker’s vital freedoms. It has also failed to both protecting workers from critical and pervasive threats and empowering the workers to take charge of their own lives.

The paper argues that although human security offers a more effective approach to many of the underlying problems and threats associated with labor migration, than does the traditional state-security model, but it also challenges both national and international authorities to address threats to worker’s security, in order to minimize forced migration and to create the conditions for migration by choice, not necessity.

Shortly after its founding, the UN General Assembly adopted The Universal Declaration of Human Rights which contains principles and norms that have achieved the status of customary law and inspired subsequent treaties and

49 conventions on human rights. The Declaration plays a pivotal role in support of a human-centered definition of security,

The 1994 UNDP Report assumes that human security consists of two complementary elements: “freedom from fear”, e.g., threats from war, conflict and state sponsored violence and “freedom from want”, e.g., preventable diseases, economic hardship, poverty, developmental concerns, (UNDP 1994, 24).

While experts and academics have debated the usefulness of defining human security in these terms, freedom from fear and want are interlinked and fundamental to human security. The failure to achieve the conditions that allow persons to live their lives free from fear and want can contribute to forced migration. The report identifies seven categories of threats to human security: economic, food, health, environmental, personal, community and political (UNDP 1994) affirming that “everyone is entitled to a social and international order in which the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration can be fully realized” (United Nations General Assembly 1948).

The human security concept gained further momentum in the new millennium. In September 2000, UN General Secretary reiterated the challenge to the international community to achieve the twin goals of freedom from fear and want. In response, the Japanese government formed The Commission on Human Security that, while functioning as an independent body, maintained close ties to the UN (Commission on Human Security 2000, iv).

The Commission sought to expand on traditional notions of security and to move from a state-centered focus to include “non-traditional” threats. In its final report the Commission sought to generate public support for human security, use this concept as a tool for policy formulation and implementation, and propose a program of action to address critical and pervasive threats to security.

The Commission viewed human security from a human-centered model focused on a comprehensive understanding of development, rather than one focused solely on the economic aspects of a person’s or community’s life. They encouraged the establishment of rights-respecting, political

50 structures, employment producing economic institutions, and cultures that did not discriminate according race, religion, gender, or any other arbitrary classification.

As the Commission noted: human security policies must consider the fight against poverty as a major challenge for the international community. It is imperative to develop global strategies supporting growth and sustainable development while at the same time implementing policies of economic development and social protection at the national level. (Commission on Human Security 2003).

In the meantime, the Brandt land Commission introduced the concept of ‘Sustainable Development’, that requires more than strategies to further economic, political, social and cultural growth; it requires political and social institutions that will promote human security. According to the 1994 UN Development Report, such institutions should be built on the local and national level, but it is equally important to construct new institutions that can help to provide global governance in an increasingly interconnected world. Events in one corner of the world increasingly have repercussions in other areas (Arias 1998; Kay 1997).

Any form of migration results from and can lead to human insecurity. It can be disruptions in the economic lives of individuals and their families, due to massive migration of un-skill and semi-skill workers, dislocation due to environmental disasters, and political and religious persecution constitute a few of the threats to human security that drive migration on a mass scale.

International Labor Migration and the State and Human Security

International migration is defined by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) as “the movement of persons who leave their country of origin or the country of habitual residence, to establish themselves either permanently or temporarily in another country” (International Organization for Migration 2005).

51 The traditional distinction between “voluntary” migrants or “free population movements” and “forced” or “involuntary” highlights the complexity of the challenge. Forced migrants are driven from their home countries by war, violent conflicts, human rights violations and abuses or discrimination (Fisher, Martin and Straubhaar 1997, 50). Voluntary migrants, on the other hand, are assumed to have migrated through free choice rather than force.

Situations of involuntary and voluntary migration can be clear cut in many instances. Yet the distinction between forced and voluntary migration blurs in cases involving south-south migration or migration of the very poor from the developing to the developed world. Social, political, and economic insecurity can compel people to move from one place to another, even if they do not experience overt forms of persecution that are normally assumed to drive involuntary migration.

The Causes of International Labor Migrations: A Demand- determined Approach

A demand-determination approach based on human capital theory is then outlined to overcome these limits and to take into account restrictive immigration controls.The demand for immigrants in the destination country is the decisive condition for the phenomenon of international labor migration, and the supply of migration-willing workers is only a necessary condition within this approach. This approach talks about the mass labor migration from poor countries to the countries of Arab regions especially the oil-rich Gulf countries since 1974 (Straubhaar,1986).

The Causes and Effects Model of International Migrations

The Model was developed by Grogger and Hanson (2008), by allowing for unobserved individual heterogeneity between migrants and non-migrants. This model can use to assess the economic and legal determinants of international migration. With this Model, the bilateral migration flows can be determined, i.e. increasing in the income per capita gap between origin and destination can be calculated. Moreover, the Model can demonstrate that the bilateral flows

52 may decrease when destination countries adopt stricter immigration laws. The Model can estimate the impact of immigration flows on employment, investment and productivity in the receiving countries using as instruments the “push” factors in the gravity equation.

The Framework of Homo-economicus Approach

This approach discusses the reasons for this emerging phenomenon using a conceptual framework that extends the traditional Lewis dualistic labor market model to incorporate a migrant labor market. The Model emphasizes that migrant labor shortage in a country not only reflects a declining wage gap between what rural agro-producers receive and what migrants can earn in the cities, but also the institutional legacies of the planning era such as the household registration system which discriminates against migrants vis-a-vis urban residents in terms of access to social insurance and other social services (Sujan et al. (2007: Migrants as Homo economicus : explaining the emerging phenomenon of a shortage of migrant labor in China’s coastal provinces).

With the expansion of capitalist markets globally, disruptions occur in local economies for a variety of reasons, including increased mechanization which decreases the need for manual labor, land consolidation which can undermine traditional approaches to land ownership and tenure, and the construction of foreign-owned factories which can weaken the local peasant economy. These economic disruptions increase the likelihood of migration. There is also the possibility that workers who had considered migrating, but could not afford it, would able to gain access to more capital or otherwise be able to move and would decide to do so (Massey et al. 1993).

From a human security perspective, the movement of migrant workers should be looked at comprehensively, taking into account the political, civil, security, economic and social dimensions affecting worker’s decision to move (Commission on Human Security 2003). Migrant workers’ movement cannot be analyzed simply from the framework of homo-economicus; a range of factors beyond economic considerations play an important role in decisions to migrate.

53 State of Migrant Labors’ Human Security and the Human Rights Conditions from Human Security Perspective

Apart from the discussion on human security paradigm, we need to focus on the causes of labor migration. It is important to highlight how the threats that migrant laborsface. It is evident that the nature of abuse, torture and humiliation the migrant workersexperience in transit. From a human security perspective, the migrant labors are most helpless due to lack of legal protections as they hardly getany legal aid to protect themselves. In many instances, threats are most acute for forced migrants, irregular migrants, women and children, and other vulnerable groups. Sexual abuse, for example, is unfortunately an all too common experience, particularly among young women and girls who migrate to Middle East and Gulf regions. Sometime it is also subject to sexual exploitation by the very people there to serve for them, including maser, his close relatives, family members and brokers (Kirk and Taylor 2007, 14).

The Political Economy Approach of Labor Migration in the Era of Globalization

Based on reviewing the theories of neoclassical economists (Todar, 1976); The Neo Economics of Labour Migration (Stark, 1991); Segmented Labour Market Theories (Piore, 1979); World System Theory (Massey, 1990); Social System theory (Massey and Goldroy, 1994; Theory of Cumulative Causation, Sassen, 1988).

Massey et. al. developed a synthesious theoretical explanation for the emergence of persistence of international migration theory at the dawn of 21st Century. International migration issue can be analyzed in the context of social, economic and political transformations that accompany the expansions of capitalist markets into non-market societies. In the context of globalizied economy, the entry of markets and capital intensive production methods into peripheral non-market or pre-market economics disrupts existing social and economic arrangements and bring about the widespred displacement of people from customary links. In the short run, international labor migration does not stem from a lack of economic development but from development itself.

54 The Political Economy of Labor Migration Manifestos related to Eleventh National Parliamentary Election

According to a study findings of RMMRU, the Eleventh National Parliamentary Election of Bangladesh was held on 30 December 2018. The contestant political parties and the alliances had declared their political manifestos, reflecting their political commitment in fulfilling a number of socio-economic and development agenda. The manifesto of the Awami League had 35 political commitments in which international migration was highlighted under the labor welfare and labor policy. In the election manifestos, they have also promised to send more skilled workers to different destinations to avoid exploitation, abuse and humiliation. Moreover, they proposed and formulated some plans and schemes to ensure growth and benefits from productive investment of the remittances of migrants. They also committed to facilitate soft loans through Probashi Kalyan Bank and ensuring the disbursement mechanism of granting loans for the returnee migrants (RMMRU (2018).

Political Economy of Sustainable Development Goals

According to Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target 10.7, Bangladesh committed to facilitate by 2030 the ‘orderly, safe, and responsible migration and mobility of people and workers through effective implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies.’

Conclusion

It is evident from this paper that it is mostly the unskilled and semi-skilled migrant laborswho need to work under difficult and challenging circumstances in abroad. Their health, security, work conditions, and labor standards need to be carefully monitored.

The policy formulators need to examine the conditions under which migrant workers work abroad and identify measures that will prevent avoidable exploitation, physical, mental and sexual abuse, torture and humiliation; uncertainty, insecurity, discrimination and deprivation.

55 As Bangladesh, like many other developing countries and under developed countries, is dependent on the remittance inflow from our expatriate workers, helps us not only to meet our balance of trade deficit but also to add to our foreign exchange reserve. In addition, it enables us to find employment abroad for our growing youth population, and assist in getting the demographic dividends for better socio-economic development and ensuring quality life.

Policy Implications

Enforcement of legalization of immigrant workers is a simple policy to implement and can be very effective in reducing undeclared labor and labor exploitation.

In SDG target 10.7, Bangladesh committed to facilitate by 2030 the ‘orderly, safe, and responsible migration and mobility of people and workers through effective implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies’ .

Bangladesh should reap the benefits of demographic dividend by formulating and implementing effective measures and policies related to migration.

While the discourse in defining human security has mainly remained at the conceptual and abstract levels, in case of international labor migration, there has been a growing need to consider newly identified security tasks in order to bring about effective policy and institutional responses to international migration.

Both un-skill and semi-skill labor force need comprehensive training on human rights, related skills, legal defense mechanism, language and culture.

The political commitment regarding planned manpower development and strict enforcement of existing laws, rules and regulations, must not only reflects in political manifestos of political parties also need to implement those commitment.

56 Keynote Paper - 2 Cross Border Forced and Voluntary Migration and Non-Traditional Security Discourse1

Dr. Tasneem Siddiqui Founding Chair, RMMRU and Professor, Department of Political Science University of Dhaka

This paper focuses on securitization of cross border migration in the South Asian context. It deals with Rohingya population of Myanmar, Bengali population in Assam and migration of professionals and workers between India and Bangladesh. Issues dealt in this paper belong to the discourse of non-traditional security.

Conceptual Framework

Traditional and non-traditional security: Traditional security discourse has been dominated by realist understanding of international politics. It is about geo-politics, deterrence, power balancing and military strategy. The state and its defence from external military attacks is the exclusive focus of security policy. The state is the only referent object of security. Security confined to deliberate threats (primarily of a military nature) to physical security of state. Post Cold War era reduced justification for high military spending. This prompted security analysts to broaden the arena of security discourse and titled it Non-Traditional Security (NTS). It focuses primarily on non-military challenges to security. NTS incorporates the state as a primary referent object of security but also moves beyond by including other referent objects like human collectivities. Issues such as human security, economic security, climate change, HIV-AIDS and other diseases, ethnic conflicts, arms smuggling, migration, organised crimes (sea piracy, human and drug trafficking), religious conflicts, violent extremism etc. came under the purview of security discourse.

1. Seminar on Non-Traditional Security Challenges in a Globalized World: A Common Strategy for Developing Countries organised by NDC on 28 November, 2019

57 Common element between traditional and non-traditional security is that both are trans-national in character. Of course issues of the latter belong more to political and socio-economic arena and the former in military arena. Again non-traditional security threats are not new security concerns but intensified and spread by forces of globalization. Barry Buzan (1988) provided a concrete conceptual framework of securitization. He defined securitization as a deliberate action of purposeful actors who frame new or previously ignored challenges as existential threats to the survival and well being of people, state and international community. Interested actors through speech act create justification for requiring emergency measures and state actions outside the normal bounds of political process. Outcome of securitization are greater resource allocation, legal reform and militarization of the issue.

Buzan identified Government, political elite, military, and civil society as securitizing actors. These actors securitize an issue by articulating the existence of threat(s) to the survival of specific referent objects. They securitize an issue through speech act. Securitizing actors use the language of security (speech act) to convince a specific audience of the existential nature of the threat. The act of securitization is complete once the relevant audience is convinced of the existential threat to the referent object.

Approaches to Securitization of Migration: It is Teitelbaum (2002) who first systematically brought in migration in to security discourse. He argues, large scale population movements can effect the cohesion of societies and become source of inter-state and intra-state conflict. Myron Weiner as early as in 1990 (1990) discussed four types of situations where migration can be a threat. But he has not constructed his discussion in the frame work of non-traditional security. The four types of situations are - when a migrant community opposes the regime of their country of origin; when they are perceived as political threat to a particular regime of the receiving country; when they are viewed as threat to culture of receiving country and finally when they are perceived by the mainstream community as outsiders who are exerting pressure on social services and economic opportunities of the locals. Cronin (2003), Kerb and Levy (2001) are the hard core academics who securitized migration. Cronin argues freer movements across boundaries are enabling

58 terrorists to carry out attacks more easily. Kerb and Levy (2001) link illegal weapons smuggling, drug trafficking and other transnational criminal activities with migration. They identify migration as a source of existential threat and calls for action outside the normal bounds of political process. They argued for adoption of emergency measures to reduce migration. Buzan (1998) on the other hand, perceives migration as a threat to society’s dominant identity. But he refrained from securitizing migration.

Following Buzan’s broad definition of securitization, we can define securitization of migration as a process of construction of a security knowledge that links various day-to-day social threats like violent extremism, terrorism, arms smuggling, drug trafficking with immigrants. Governments, political elites, military, and civil society can all be securitizing actors by articulating an issue or identifying a particular migrant community as existential threat(s). Securitizing actors use the language of security (speech act) to convince a specific audience of the existential nature of the threat.

Recent South-Asian Experiences of Securitization of Cross Border Migration

Rohingya Population of Myanmar: Rohingya population was considered as an integral part of Myanmar during its independence. Up to 1962, there were Rohingya parliamentarians and Radio Burma broadcasted Rohingya programmes. After the military takeover that year the securitization process of the Rohingyas began. The military junta recognized 135 national races that did not include Rohingyas. Rohingyas were identified as Sunni Muslim of Bengali ethnic race, not part of Myanmar.

In 1982, citizenship law was passed. It provided citizenship on the basis of place of birth. The new law categorized citizens in various groups: full citizen, associate citizen and naturalized citizen. The citizenship status that the Rohingyas enjoyed until then, was revoked and they were categorised as temporary residents. The first group of citizens are those from Buddhist race. They were provided full citizenship possessing pink card. The second group is referred to as associate citizens. Those who can produce conclusive evidence

59 of entry before 1948 and know at least one Burmese language, or/and were born in the country before 1948 are associate citizens. They have been provided blue card. Third groups are constituted by naturalized citizens. They are issued green card. On the other Rohingyas were provided with temporary residence registration card (white card). It does not mention place of birth. They cannot claim citizenship. More importantly, the citizenship law does not recognize any national race called Rohingya.

The securitization of Rohingya community was completed after the promulgation of 1982 citizenship law. The manifestation of emergency actions of subseqeunt Burmese governments and the military include, arbitrary treatment, discriminatory policy, forced labour in military projects, forced re-location, imposition of condition to take permission to get married from NASACA (1990), to go from one village to another. In addition Rohingays were subjected to various kinds of harassment and intimidation. Their farms were ransacked every now and then, men tortured, women raped and this resulted in persistent pregnancy to protect themselves from being raped. The series of persecution and often violence meted out to them resulted in them seeking refuge in Bangladesh 1978 (252,000); 1992 (270,000); 2012 (35,000) and 2017 (821,000). Persecution of Rohingyas reached its peak when an overwhelming segment had to flee the country and became refugees. Now 160,000 Rohingya remain in Myanmar.

In the countries of their asylum the Rohinguyas are also subjected to securitization by particular section under different pretexts. In Bangladesh interested sections of civil society activists identify them as national security threat by linking them with global Islamic militancy, deteriorating law and order in Cox’s Bazar, deforestation, local unemployment, creating bad image of Bangladesh in the Middle-East etc. In Indonesia, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia, at the out-break of COVID 19, Rohingyas are continuously in the discussions for spreading the virus.

Bengali Population in Assam: The second example explored in the paper highlights the securitization of Bengali population of Assam. Since early 1970s’ for a number of years the students of some of the north-eastern hill states of India was articulating their demands for due share from the overall

60 economic development of India. They had genuine grievances against the union government for not being able to distribute the outcome of growth of India although the hill states have contributed significantly in such development.

Assam students were in the forefront of such demands. By late 1970 students of Assam started identifying migration on Bengali community as one of the problems behind their lacking in economic prosperity. Bengali migration to Assam was a natural phenomenon. However the scale of such migration increased during the British colonial period as land of the peasants of Bengal was taken away for lucrative indigo plantation by the colonial rules. Thus the issue of Bengali migration started being securitized. All Assam Students Union became the first securitizing actor. Later political parties have also securitized Bengali migration by accusing Bengalis for demographic invasion, destroying local indigenous jhum cultivation system etc. Subsequently, Bengali migrants of Hindu faith were accepted as refugees while Muslim Bengalis became the principal targets.

Situation reached a violent state and the federal government had to intervene. In 1981 the then Congress governemt signed the Assam Accord. Interestingly, the Accord bypassed the fundamental issue of ensuring growth of the hill districts, and concentrated more on citizenship issue. The subsequent amendment of the citizenship law (2004 citizenship act, citizenship rule) entailed three types of citizenship. This has been perceived by academics as the first step towards securitization of migration by the federal state actors. Recent steps of National Register of Citizens and Citizenship Amendment Act have completed the securitization process of the Bengalis/ Muslim Bengalis in India. After the amendment of citizenship act in 2020 now there are three types of citizenship in India - all who came before 1966 are citizens, those who from 1966 to 1971 have to wait for 10 years for gaining citizenship, those who came after 1971 are deemed as illegal migrants. 1955 citizenship act provided citizenship on the basis of place of birth, now the new amendment shifted it to citizenship by birth. Securitization of migration in India resulted in the fundamental shift from the concept of citizenship espoused during independence of India. The country has moved from civil nationalism to ethno-religious nationalism.

61 As part of anti-Muslim securitization campaign in 2019 the union government has began preparing a National Register of Citizens (NRC) based on a court judgment of 2004. The aim has been to identify the so-called illegal Muslim Bengalis in Assam who presumably have migrated from Bangladesh. However, implementation of the NRC created new problem. In South Asia poor people hardly have documentation such as birth registration or passport etc. 4 million Assamese mostly indigenous population did not meet the criteria of citizenship to register. 3.6 million has already put a fresh claim. It is perceived by academics that around 2 million Assamese could be stateless due to this. The BJP government as well as its political allays started to issue statements that non-citizens will be deported to Bangladesh. However, the Indian Prime Minister assured the Prime Minister of Bangladesh that there will be no deportation. The Indian government also started constructing detention centers in different places of the country. Political and social activists perceive that putting persons in detention centres who cannot provide proof of their citizenship will create scope for treating these population as slave labourers. In India this may result in bonafide citizens become illegal migrants and illegal migrants into stateless persons.

Labour Migration between India and Bangladesh: The geographical mobility of people in search of better life and livelihood in the territories that now constitute India and Bangladesh predates their existence as nation states. Since 1947, regimes for formal labour migration became almost non-existent. Migration flow for livelihood between these two countries is mostly irregular.

Over the years, particularly since 2000, informal labour migration from Bangladesh to India has become highly securitized. Successive governments of India and a section of the Indian civil society have identified migrants from Bangladesh as a threat to their state and societal security. The speech act include, involvement of migrants in ‘subversive activities and terrorism’, ‘demographic invasion’, and linking Bangladeshi migrants with crimes, petty theft to drug peddling, arms smuggling and human trafficking. They were also blamed from exerting pressure on civic facilities, robbing scarce jobs of the locals, posing a threat to social and cultural identity etc. The language of securitization also changed. The earlier term ‘economic migrants’ was replaced by a militaristic term, ‘infiltrators from the East’.

62 A sizeable number of Indian migrants are also working in Bangladesh. There is no firm figure of their number; however, annually these migrants remit around USD 5 billion to India. According to State Bank of India, in different years, Bangladesh is either 4th or 5th largest remittance source country of India. Initially, the Indian migrants arrive in Bangladesh with regular visa. In many instances they continue stay and work even after their work permit expire, technically making them irregular. Migration of these workers, both professional as well as skilled, from India to Bangladesh has not been securitized by any actors of Bangladesh.

Conclusion

Based on the three cases presented in this paper I would also agree with Bary Buzan. Buzan suggested not to securitise migration. Securitization of migration does not ensure increased level of security of the referent object, the state. Rather it brings new threats to human security of those who migrate. It argues for the de-securitization of migration by addressing the challenges of migration through political process. In case of Myanmar de-securitisation may require, repeal/amend 1982 citizenship law, implementation of Article 7 of the Child Rights Convention, Article 9 of Convention on Discrimination against Women, respect to human right obligations; and making Myanmar accountable and create a path of protected return of Rohingyas to their protected homeland by the global community. For India to de-securitize, means to change the process of “othering”- “the other in India is wholly, historically and organically Indians” (Niraja Gopal); re-construct religion neutral civic nationalism replacing current trend of faith based nationalism and bring back the concepts of pluralism and diversity. De-securitization of current trend of informal flow of unskilled workers from Bangladesh to India and formal as well as semi-documented migration from India to Bangladesh may require introduction of work permit system.

63 Keynote Paper - 3 Migration: The Security Dimension of a Global Phenomena

Mr. Asif Munier Migration and Refugee Specialist

Introduction

One of the biggest global phenomena in the 21st Century and in recent years can be considered as human mobility across countries, regions and continents. Its root causes and impacts are multi-faceted – human induced or climate induced, geo politics, economic conditions, social urges to build kinship across borders, reunite with families disconnected through borders – and so on. With the evolvement of stronger Border States, the evolution of global migration process is ever increasingly facing the notion of securitization, perception of security threats, security risks in transition for migrants and communal tensions among migrant and native communities. Such tensions and peaceful co-existence has been a natural process for ages, but securitization of the concept is more so in recent years. But first, let us explore the meaning and nuances of the term ‘migration’.

Key Migration Terms & Definitions

There is no one definition or one clear concept for migration, so often the meanings differ and are used interchangeably as expressed in different contexts. Different UN agencies have tried to explain it in the way it can be more globally accepted.

Migrant - An umbrella term  a person who moves away from his or her place of usual residence, whether within a country or across an international border, temporarily or permanently, and for a variety of reasons (IOM, Glossary on Migration 2019) .

64 An international migrantis defined as “any person who changes his or her country of usual residence” (UN DESA, 1998).

Internal Migration: The movement of people within a State involving the establishment of a new temporary or permanent residence.

International Migration: The movement of persons away from their place of usual residence and across an international border to a country of which they are not nationals

Regular Migration: Migration that occurs in compliance with the laws of the country of origin, transit and destination.

Irregular Migration: Movement of persons that takes place outside the laws, regulations, or international agreements governing the entry into or exit from the State of origin, transit or destination.

Emigration: From the perspective of the country of departure, the act of moving from one’s country of nationality or usual residence to another country, so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence.

Immigration: From the perspective of the country of arrival, the act of moving into a country other than one’s country of nationality or usual residence, so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence.

Labour Migration: Movement of persons from one State to another, or within their own country of residence, for the purpose of employment.

Diaspora: Individuals and members of networks, associations and communities who have left their countries of origin, but maintain links with their homeland (IOM).

Smuggling of Migrants: The procurement, in order to obtain, directly or indirectly, a financial or other material benefit, of the irregular entry of a person into a State Party of which the person is not a national or a permanent resident.

65 Migrants in Vulnerable Situations: Migrants who are unable to effectively enjoy their human rights, are at increased risk of violations and abuse and who, accordingly, are entitled to call on a duty bearer’s heightened duty of care.

Trafficking in Persons:The recruitment, transportation, transfer, harbouring or receipt of persons, by means of the threat or use of force or other forms of coercion, of abduction, of fraud, of deception, of the abuse of power or of a position of vulnerability or of the giving or receiving of payments or benefits to achieve the consent of a person having control over another person, for the purpose of exploitation. Exploitation shall include, at a minimum, the exploitation of the prostitution of others or other forms of sexual exploitation, forced labour or services, slavery or practices similar to slavery, servitude or the removal of organs. Of course these explanations are not in air tight compartments, and there are other terms in use in order to understand the nature, challenges, benefits and threats of migration.

Global Migration Trends

Despite the increase in absolute numbers, the share of international migrants in proportion to the world’s population has remained relatively stable between 1970 and 2017 at around 2.2 to 3.5 percent (IOM, Migration Data Portal, 2018).

• 258 Million international migrants in 2017. • 48% of them women and 14% children. • 150.3 Million migrants workers in 2015. • 50 Million irregular migrants in 2009. • 4.6 Million International Students in 2016. • 18.8 Million people in 135 countries were newly displaced by sudden-onset disasters within their own countries in 2017. • $466 Billion of remittance were sent to low- and middle-income countries in 2017.

66 • 6.5 million individuals were forcibly displaced worldwide in 2017. • 6,163 migrants lost their lives or went missing during migration in 2017. • 25 Victims of forced labor in 2016, of them 5 million crossed an international border. • In 2015/16, 1/5thof 150 million foreign-born residents aged 15 and 15+ in G20 countries are from Mexico, India, Bangladesh, Ukraine and China . • US is the main G20 destination, with around 2.2 million new migrants arriving in 2018. • In G20, foreign-born individuals are more likely to be employed than their native-born peers (66% vs. 62%).

Knowing the numbers is not an end in itself, but it can give a sense about the trends and a scope to understand how human mobility affects migrants themselves and the distant communities they interact with.

Drivers and Impact of Migration

It is important to ponder upon and understand the different reasons for migration from the perspective of the migrants. What motivates or compels a person to migrate? Sometimes it is voluntary and by choice, but not always.

67 Sometimes it is personal or family reasons and decisions, sometimes it is external factors.

Before considering the securitization of migration, it is also important to put into context that migration is also beneficial for the migrants, the country of their origin, the country of their destination and the citizens of that country – for all in most cases. When an occasional incident erupts that unsettles community life or security in the country where migrants reside and work, the finger of accusation is often pointed towards migrants. Not always a fair and unbiased opinion.

Perceptions About Securitization of Migration:

• Political security and sovereignty of the State.

• Drivers of violent extremism.

• Social cohesion vs social security by the ‘invasion’ of ‘other’ identities.

• Securitisation triggered by welfare ‘chauvinism’ - access to services, markets, jobs and welfare systems.

• menace to cultural homogeneity.

• Exploitation vs protection.

• Impact of colonization – reverse migration with a generational memory.

Not all of this is true, although the manifesations may seem like they are true. In many cases the root causes would indicate that migrants are not always responsible at least not entirely for any perceived or actual threat for national or community security.

68 Globally Acknowledged Benefits of Migration with Proof are:

• Contribution to sustainable development - remittances are now more than three times the amount of official development assistance globally. • Contribution to public finances. • Complement local labour force in the country of destination. • Increase trade and investment flows between countries of origin and destination. • Foster innovation and entrepreneurship. • Build transnational networks. • Mitigate the effects of an ageing and shrinking population. • Facilitate the flow of goods, factors and knowledge. • 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals recognizes migration as a powerful driver of sustainable development.

It would be a better world if the benefits of migration for all humans could be remembered and values by all humans across the globe. Migrants are part of the reality of human civilization and without the cross exchange of cultures and experiences, the world we live in will not be as dynamic as it is today.

Migrants and International Obligations

International Convention on Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families (ICMW) was adopted in 1990 and came into force globally in 2003. It was adopted in line with existing Human rights and ILO instruments relevant to migrant workers and applies to only migrant workers.

The Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW) is an international treaty that requires countries to eliminate discrimination against women in all areas and promotes women’s equal rights, including the rights of migrant women. The United Nations adopted CEDAW in 1979 and often is described as the international bill of rights for women.

69 Global Forum on Migration and Development (GFMD) is a government-led voluntary and informal mechanism for cooperation among states on migration issues. Between July 2007 and June 2018, 11 GFMD summits were held.

Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) – a ‘soft international law’ to manage mixed migration and offer protection of all kinds for all migrants including diaspora. It had been conceptualized and proposed by the Government of Bangladesh at the United Nations Secretary General’s office and adopted by 152 countries (with a few abstentions) in 2018.

Apart from several goals linked to human mobility, skills and rights, the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development Goals has one specific goal on migration - Goal 10.7 which is about facilitating orderly, safe, and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through implementation of planned and well- managed migration policies. There are several regional consultative processes (RCPs) that are important globally on migration. For Asia, most important non-binding, State level consultative processes are – The Colombo Process, The Abu Dhabi Dialogue, The Bali Process and the Budapest Process.

Although the international instruments and the regional consultations on migration are strong on human rights of migrants, there is not enough strong evidence of how securitization of migrants have been or can be addressed based on such regional and international instruments/processes.

United Nations also adopted a Declaration and Programme of Action at these texts at the World Conference against Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance, held in 2001 in Durban, South Africa. The Declaration recognised that xenophobia against non-nationals, particularly migrants, refugees and asylum-seekers, constitutesone of the main sources of contemporary racism andthat human rights violations against members of such groupsoccur widely in the context of discriminatory, xenophobic and racist practices (Article 16). That was 2001, after 18 years we wish that such discrimination has decreased. Ironically, in September the UN condemned a series of xenophobic attack across South Africa in September 2019, which left 7 persons killed and many establishments damaged and looted.

70 Indeed in the last decade in Europe, there is a shift towards and rise in political racism. One high level UN commentary recently was that there are more racist politicians among the current 785 MEPs than members representing the 15 million ethnic minorities and third-country nationals living in European Union (EU) countries. Fascist parties and groups have become right-wing populist parties and groups, which have reduced their gaps with traditional democratic parties and groups. They more and more use a language of nation and tradition, sovereignty and community, rather than eugenics, extermination and fatherland. Such modernist and populist views are not always conducive for migrants in any part of the world.

General Snapshot of Migration from Bangladesh

• Each year, an estimated 2.2 million young people enter the job market in Bangladesh; the domestic labour market can only absorb about 1 million. • Bangladesh is a top workforce sending country, Bangladeshi workers in 165 countries. • About 10 million Bangladeshis are abroad at any given time. • In 2018, 35.05% of the total flow of Bangladeshi workers migrated to Saudi Arabia; 24% to Malaysia; 10 % to Qatar; 9.8% to Oman; and 6% to Singapore. • Main occupations for Bangladeshi workers are in the hospitality and construction sector, and also in the domestic work, agriculture and manufacturing sector. • In 2018 Bangladeshis migrants remitted US$15.54 billion (BB). • For women, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Lebanon, and Oman as top five countries of destination 99 % are employed as domestic workers. • Men remit more than women because they earn more, but women send back a greater portion of their earnings (72% women; 54 % men).

71 Security Challenges of Bangladeshi Migrants

The main security challenges related to Bangladeshi migrants are at one hand related to the perceptions and myths about migrants from a small South Asian country, on the other hand it is also about the cultural differences and barriers to communication. There are might be other reasons too and a much more complex web of securitization. Some of the manifestation of security challenges are:

• Poor governance and awareness resulting in irregular migration and undocumented migrants in destination country – exploitation and conflict with the rule of law. • Low skills, language barriers, close knit communities – not enough mix or integration – not enough mutual trust and respect. • Poor access to welfare and social protection mechanisms – alternative paths sought which are contrary to rules and laws in country of destination . • Bangladesh remains in the Tier 2 watch list for the 3rd year in a row, under the Trafficking in Persons annual reporting of the US State Department – not meeting the minimum standards of prevention, protection and prosecution. • High profile incidents (or probable incidents) of violent extremism in recent years, involving Bangladeshis – in Bangladesh and abroad – notion of labelling ‘Bangladeshi Muslims as terrorists’.

The positive image of Bangladeshis, the tradition of culture of peace and secularism needs to be upfront globally.

72 Rapporteurs

Brigadier General Md Sadequzzaman, afwc, psc

Group Captain Md Rafiul Huq, BPP, psc, Captain Ziaur Rahman, (TAS), psc, BN ADWC

Group Captain Hasan Ashrafuzzaman, Lieutenant Colonel Mir Sarwar Hossain psc, GD(P) Chowdhury, psc

Lieutenant Colonel Md Mafizul Islam Lieutenant Colonel Golam Kibria Zaman, Rashed, psc psc

73 Lieutenant Colonel Md Syeedur Rahman, Lieutenant Colonel Md Mostofa Iquebal, psc psc

Lieutenant Colonel Khandoker Tariqul Lieutenant Colonel Md Mohashin Reza, Islam, psc OSP, psc

Lieutenant Colonel Kazi Nadir Hossain, Commander Khandakar Elius Kanchon, psc, G+ (G), psc, BN

74 Summary of the Interactive Session (Session-1)

General

A seminar was held on “Non-Traditional Security Challenges in Globalized World: A Common Strategy for Developing Countries” at National Defence College (NDC), Bangladesh on 28 November 2019. The seminar was composed of two sessions, where the theme or the topic for the first session was “Climate Change: Impact on Economy and Security” followed by a vibrant interactive session. The theme of the first session bears a great significance in the security dynamics of the contemporary globalized world and also in the context of Bangladesh. Globalization is dramatically revolutionizing the security parameters of the word. Again, the effect of climate change are posing severe threat to the human security across the globe. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries and a worst sufferer of the adverse impacts of the climate change. The sea level rise, intrusion of saline water, river and coastal erosion, increasing intensity of natural disasters like cyclone, storm and flood etc. are commonly evident which are results of the adverse impact of climate change. As such, these phenomena need comprehensive study and brainstorming so that a common strategy can be worked out to fight such menace by the developing countries. Three distinguished keynote speakers presented their papers and discussed three different dimensions related to the climate change issues from the parlance of non-traditional security challenges especially in the context of Bangladesh. The session was moderated by a Session Chair. An endeavor has been made to summarize the first session of the seminar in subsequent paragraphs.

Comments from Professor Dr. Syed Anwar Husain

Professor Anwar congratulated all the panelists for educating the house on the adverse impact of climate change the world facing today. He mentioned that climate change had been evident from the day one of the human civilization. Many civilizations in the past had been adversely impacted by climate change in different ways. For example, absence of precipitation for consecutive nine years

75 led to the extinction of Indus Valley Civilization in this part of the world. Once green Sahara region had also transformed gradually into the desert because of the adverse impact of climate change. The world is facing such similar kind of situation today caused by the global climate change. In the prehistoric era climate change was a natural phenomenon but in the contemporary time the climate change is induced by both natural and anthropogenic reasons. The professor added that, the climate change is considered to be one of the important facets of Non-Traditional Security Threats (NTST) in present day context. As per UN report of 2005, there are three security dimensions: freedom from fear, living in dignity and freedom from want are some of the security threats for present day’s human civilization which are induced by the climate change. The professor concluded by questioning the hall, “are we really cautious about this?”. He also added that there are various remedies of the adverse impact of climate change; we need to sensitize our people on these issues for the greater benefit of the mankind.

Questions to the Panelists

Question 1 (Commodore Ershad, Course Member of NDC 2019): There are two different reactions groups on the Inter-Governmental Penal on Climate Change (IPCC) report, one is the believer group and the other one is the denier group. The deniers argue that the IPCC report is not the outcome of primary research, rather it is a peer review, which they claim to be a conspiracy theory. How much authentic is the IPCC report? Despite the fact of having strong scientific evidences suggesting that the climate change is taking place due to the anthropogenic reasons, why there are divides in opinions?

Response

Moderator: The Moderator commented that there are two schools of thought on the climate change issues – one is the believer group and the other one is non-believer group. Climate change happens in two ways - one is natural way of climate change and the other one is the anthropogenic way (economic, societal, geo-strategic, geo-political, etc.) of climate change. Some are accepting the anthropogenic way of climate change and some are negating this theory.

76 Response from Mr. A K M Mamunur Rashid, Climate Change Specialist at UNDP, Bangladesh: The IPCC report has primarily investigated and dealt with the anthropogenic issues of climate change. History of the human being is a carbonized process. The governments across the globe employ scientists to ascertain the level of carbonization in the climate. There is an agreed process by which the scientists decide the carbonization process and its level. Global consensus is there on this scientific process and findings. The non-believers group challenge and defy the believer group by pointing out the weaknesses and loop holes of this concept. However, they are not concerted in their opinions, nor they have presented any believable theory in support of their claims. This does not certainly mean that the IPCC report is incorrect. The changing phenomenon in this VUCA world is exponentially high. It has to be perceived from a security point of view. There has to be global consensus, wisdom and governance in this 4th industrial revolution to solve our problems related to climate change.

Question 2 (Lieutenant General Zahir, (retd), Ex Commandant, NDC): Some of the symptoms of climate change are clearly visible which are raising alarm. There are people who are alarmists while the others are not. The non- alarmists believe that human ingenuity and scientific inventions will find out some solutions to the climate change issues. For example, there might be solutions in the depletion of ozone layer in the upper atmosphere of the earth which causes the global warming. Some developed countries may already possess suitable technology to deal with such problems. He sought the comments from the panelists on this issue.

Response

Professor Mokaddem: At present the observation induced data and statistics are available. But to predict future impact of the climate change a model is essential. The problem with the observation induced data is that it can prepare models but cannot accurately predict the future. Scientific models also may have uncertainty. There are no exact models at present which can correctly predict the future changes. The scientific data of IPCC also fall within 5% - 20% uncertainty. One can argue that these uncertainties can lead us to wrong predictions.

77 Response from Mr. A K M Mamunur Rashid: There are secret science which has not appeared or viewed in the public as yet. Some of the people believe that these new technologies will surface once the old energy sources are completely exhausted from the earth. Now it is too early to speculate on that issue. There are scientific revolutions or the use of green energy like the electric car, use of renewable energy and other potentially great scientific inventions. On the other hand, there are conflicts between the neo normal and neo liberal policies. For example, a political leader may be a strong proponent of climate change issue yet may allow the extraction and use of hydro carbon in his country. Justin Trudeau of Canada is a strong believer of the impact of global climate change yet there is construction of pipeline in his country for the transportation of fossil fuel. Homo Sapience can be enormously destructive to the climate if they are not driven by the wisdom in their actions.

Response from Professor Mafizur Rahman: There are limitations in collecting various data for creating scientific models. For example, the rainfall collection data has only 40 stations across the world which are not enough to validate the models. Again the computer takes minimum 30 days to synthesize the data it receives. On top of that, the computer also has limitations in terms of its computing ability. All these can pose many limitations as far as the creation of the scientific models are concerned.

Professor Mokaddem: There is an ongoing debate as to whether the theme of climate change is a myth or a reality. There was prediction that one-fourth of Bangladesh would be submerged by the year 2010, but it did not happen. The disasters cannot be reduced or eliminated but the risk, destruction and sufferings from the disasters can always be reduced to a great extent.

Question 3 (Lieutenant General Zahir, retd): US President Mr. Donald Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement while Greta Thunberg, a famous teen Swedish environmentalist has raised her voice against the adverse impact of climate change. As a most vulnerable country and worst victim of the adverse impacts of climate change what are the options open for Bangladesh to take her points to the international forum? Lieutenant General Zahir (retd) added that Climate Refugee may be not be visible much in the present days but it may be a reality in next 100 years’ time. Developed countries or the

78 countries around Bangladesh like India and Myanmar are also not likely to accept the climate change migrants in their countries. There are enough space in the countries like Russia, USA and Canada etc. He cited about Alaska that there are lot of unused land. The general questioned to the house that is there any global plan for accepting climate refugee in future? Has Bangladesh raised this issue in global forum?

Response

Response from Professor Dr. Hasan Mahmud, Department of Environmental Science and Management, North South University: Professor Dr. Mahmud mentioned that there are divides in the opinion about the reasons of global climate change. One group of people conceive the idea that carbon emission is the main cause of climate change whereas the other group believe that the effect of water vapour caused by thermal expansion is the main cause. In the past also there was climate change which was not felt as rigorously as it is felt today. Present population of the world is approximately seven billion. Now the climate change issues are viewed very seriously. The professor added that we may not agree what everybody says but we must remain careful about the consequences of the climate change. However, the developed countries are yet to come up to a consensus for accepting the responsibilities of climate refugees.

Question 4 (Commodore Afzal, Course Member of NDC 2019): Commodore Afzal specifically asked a question to Professor Dr. Hasan Mahmud. His question was what do you foresee about the effect of climate change on the maritime resources of the Bay of Bengal? What is our preparation to combat the adverse impact of climate change especially the sea level rise?

Response

Response from Professor Dr. Hasan Mahmud: Professor Dr. Hasan Mahmud enumerated that, there will be numerous adverse impact in the ecosystem of the Bay of Bengal due to the climate change. The change in ecosystem will affect the maritime environment as well as marine fisheries,

79 other lives and plants along the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh needs to prepare more to combat the severity and catastrophe of the natural disasters. We need to construct heavier embankments and plant more saplings and create green barriers of mangrove trees in the coastal areas like the Sundarbans. He also cited the example of recent cyclone ‘Bulbul’ which could not bring much destruction to the human lives and materials in the southern part of Bangladesh and West Bengal of India as it was predicted due to the presence of natural protection barrier of the Sundarbans.

Response from Mr. AKM Mamunur Rashid: Mr. Mamun said that global awareness and knowledge on climate adaptation is increasing day by day. A global center for climate change adaptation needs to be established. Bangladesh is already declared as a global champion in terms of climate change adaptation. Already 37 Bangladeshi experts are working globally in the field of climate change adaptation. Bangladesh is the first country in the world which allocated separate fund for climate change issues in the country’s national budget. Accordingly, 23,000 crore taka was allotted in the annual budget of 2019 – 2020 financial year for the construction of climate change infrastructure to fight against the adverse impacts. Bangladesh is investing from national and also from international sources to fight against the menace of climate change. It is expecting to receive 5 billion USD per year as international fund for climate change. Bangladesh is one of the leading nations in climate negotiation since 2012. All Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are supporting Bangladesh in terms of loss and damages caused by the climate change. Bangladesh is one of the leading nations to put in the loss and damages estimation caused by the climate change which was elaborately discussed in Bali conference. However, during the Paris Climate Accord, the responsibility of accommodating the climate refugees by the developed countries was not agreed upon. The reasons were the difference of opinions on the cause of climate change such as the failure to prove the scientific reason and governance system issues in the affected countries.

80 Summary of the Interactive Session (Session-2)

General

National Defence College organized a day- long seminar on “Non-Traditional Security Challenges in Globalized World: A Common Strategy for Developing Countries” on 28 November 2019. The theme of second session was “Migration: The Security Dimension of a Global Phenomenon”. In the second session, three guest speakers presented their key note papers. During the interactive session, few important questions as well as comments were put across to the panel of key note speakers which are highlighted in the subsequent paragraphs.

Comments from an Observer, Addl Secy (Retd) Nurus Safa Chowdhury (Former Faculty of NDC)

Mr Nurus Saffa added that expatriates and migrant workers are not same. He went on to add that he had been a labour counselor in Saudi Arbai for couple of years. Expatriates with higher skills and education are generally treated better in foreign countries. They went to those countries through proper channel. The problem lies with migrant workers with low skill or no skill. They can easily be exploited. If these migrant workers can be sent through G2G agreement, then their treatment is likely to be better, since government can pursue the cases of persecution or abuse. In Saudi Arabia, we have approximately 2.5 million migrant workers, who all are contributing to the economy of Bangladesh. He raised question about the authenticity of the figures shown by Dr Mokaddem about 27000 migrant workers being abused, harassed or tortured in Saudi Arabia.

Response by Dr. Mokaddem

Dr. Mokaddem mentioned that those figures were not of his own one, rather he collected those figures from a report of Karmojibee Nari (November 25, 2019). It reflected the statistics of last 10 years period. He mentioned that the idea of being persecuted may generate from employers’ or societal attitudes toward that vulnerable group of people. These female workers, being very illiterate, poor, and not aware of their rights, are very easy to be exploited.

81 Some GCC countries general behavior and attitudes to the citizens of poorer countries is quite disturbing especially at airports and different workplaces.

Question-1 (Joint Secretary, Abdul Latif Khan, Course Member of NDC-2019) Mr Abdul Lathif Khan did not agree to the points highlighted by the professor. He said that he had been a labour counselor at Kuwait for more than 4 years. He said that during his period early 2010s, approximately 5000 migrant worker had been working there and getting handsome salary. They were enjoying their stay there. There may be few exceptional cases which are not common. Almost 90% female workers going for work in different countries are losing their family lives, which put additional strain on them. Sometimes they also lose mental or psychological order. The cases of torture and physical abuse is generally very rare. He mentioned that there were legal difficulties regarding the implementation of ILO regulations as most of the GCC countries were not signatory to the ILO regulations. He also mentioned that Bangladesh can discuss the issues under the framework of Global Forum on Migration and Development (GFMD).

Response of Dr. Mokaddem Effective diplomacy and effective bi-lateral engagement should continue to convince ME countries to sign or agree to the ILO conventions. The government should also devise a system of effective monitoring of such alleged cases of abuse and exploitation.

Question-2 (Commodore Sadek, Course Member of NDC 2019) Commodore Sadek of Bangladesh Navy began with a prelude that we could not properly train our house assistants/maids even at home and there were incidents that local Bangladeshi citizen were abusing house assistants/maids. So there is a requirement of soul searching and correct ourselves at first. Therefore, it is unrealistic to expect better behavior from a Saudi employer. Bangladesh may undertake projects to improve the quality of female migrant workers. In this regard, Bangladesh may even ask Saudi Arabia or GCC countries’ assistance to improve the skills of workers. Simultaneously Government may go for engagement with employers for changing their mental attitude.

82 Response of Dr. Mokaddem

Dr. Mokaddem agreed to the third point. He said that we also need to honour the dignity of a house assistant/ maid. We need to change our attitudes towards the domestic workers. Government, NGOs, other development partners should come forward and undertake projects to address the issue of conduct, behaviour and attitudes toward domestic workers. Present ruling party has taken steps to safeguard the rights of a domestic worker by promulgating laws.

Comments from Staff Col Faleh Mabruk S. Al-Juhani, KSA, Course Member of NDC -2019

A Saudi Officer, course member of NDC-2019, mentioned that the quality of migrant workers from Bangladesh is far more inferior to Pakistan, India, Chile and Philippines. Still Saudi Arabia is recruiting from Bangladesh as because Saudi Arabia considers Bangladesh as one of their closest friend. He insisted that Bangladesh may take steps to improve the quality of the workers before sending them to Saudi Arabia. For any reported case of a violence /or abuse, the matter can be forwarded to police.

Comments from Ms. Nahida Sobhan, Director General of United Nations Wing, Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Ms. Nahida Sobhan thanked all the keynote speakers for enlightening the house on migration and put forward her observations from a practitioner’s point of view. She requested not to securitize migration, as approximately 10-12 million Bangladeshi people are migrant workers, and Bangladesh received about 16.4 billion US dollars remittance in last fiscal year. Therefore, if Bangladesh securitizes migration it would be a huge loss and self-injurious. In Europe, most of the migrants are from Asia and for our own national interest we should not securitize migration. She also opined that hate speech was a part of securitization, and securitization could also be implemented through policies and actions such as moving tanks, guns, militaries near borders. She also opined that migration was more of a management issue, therefore, Bangladesh should focus on managing the Rohingyas. It is praiseworthy that Bangladesh has not

83 securitized the Rohingya issue and considered it to be a humanitarian one. But unfortunately, Bangladeshi migrants are becoming victims of securitization.

Comments from Lieutenant General (Retd) Zahir

Lieutenant General (Retd) Zahir opined that he had been involved in the Rohingya issue, but unfortunately found that some people of our society were calling the Rohingyas as ‘potential demon’ which did not help solving the issue at all. When Rohingyas had a gathering in the camp it was made a big issue, which was appropriate. He also opined that, what we say about Rohingyas must be commensurate with the overall national policy of Bangladesh Government that is, voluntary repatriation.

Questions to the Panelists

Question 1 (Commander Sabbiur, Course Member, Armed Forces War Course-2019): Why migration from India to Bangladesh is not being highlighted. Why Bangladesh failed to highlight the same to the world? What the Civil society of Bangladesh is doing about it?

Question 2 (Deputy Inspector General A K M Shahidur Rahman, Course Member, National Defence Course-2019): Do you think that NRC is a potential threat for Bangladesh and there will be more refugees from India while we already have more than one million Rohingyas in our country?

Question 3 (Major General Md Ashikuzzaman, Faculty Member of National Defence College): We understand that, Rohingyas are not terrorist or criminals, and many of them come from good families. Myanmar is propagating the issue through speech act and securitization of Rohingya population. On the other hand, Bangladesh wants a voluntary repatriation of the Rohingyas. Staying in camps without any work Rohingyas are vulnerable and can pose different NTS threats to Bangladesh. What should be the speech act of Bangladesh in regards to voluntary repatriation of Rohingyas to Myanmar?

84 Response of the Panelists

Dr Tasneem Siddiqui: To answer the question of migration being securitized we must understand that the global psyche is conservatism and about BREXIT, economically it should not take place, but it has taken place. The Conservative party has played the game in such a way that now they are in big trouble. The way they have securitized migration from other parts of the world has affected their economic development. Therefore, securitization is bad, but populist politics seems very quick in securitization as it gets them votes. We should not securitize as migration is a different problem, not a security problem, rather it’s the human security of the migrants which should be protected.

Regarding potential migration due to NRC, it is sometimes not within someone’s control. The BJP leaders said to our prime minister that they were not going to come but you never know what kind of situation would arise, but current tendency of populist politics would stop at certain point and mass movement would not take place. Regarding the Rohingyas, Bangladesh Government is not securitizing the issue, but certain quarters in line with some Indian intellectuals securitizing the issue being very vocal in media, which must stop, and Government should take this into account.

Regarding the management of Rohingyas, we are providing them food and shelter, but somehow, we need to create works for them, provide education for them, otherwise there will be people who will exploit them. Bangladesh Government also realizes that we should make them capable so that Myanmar will want them back because of their skill level. So, there will be a time Rohingyas will become an asset.

Lastly regarding de-securitization of migration, we need to show the positive side of migration. Through our research, we always highlight the positive contribution of Middle East and South East Asian countries to Bangladesh. The remittance earned by the migrant workers are contributing in national development where said countries are contributing more than others. If we look in the Cox’s Bazar area, we find many foreigners who are working for aids/ donations and they are implementing certain programs which are very much for their own interest. There are problems in regards to migrant workers but we need to solve those problems bilaterally because of our own interest.

85 NDC Participants (Faculty and Staff)

Ser Rank and Name Appointment Major General A K M Abdullahil Baquee, Senior Directing Staff 1 rcds, ndu, psc (Army) Air Vice Marshal Shaikh Abdul Hannan, Senior Directing Staff 2 BUP, nswc, fawc, psc, GD (P) (Air) Rear Admiral M Shafiul Azam, NUP, ndc, Senior Directing Staff 3 psc (Navy) Major General Md Ashikuzzaman, ndc, Senior Directing Staff 4 afwc, psc, G (Army) Brigadier General Md Amin Akbar, OSP, Senior Directing Staff 5 SPP, awc, psc (Army) Additional Secretary Md Mofazzal Hossain, Senior Directing Staff 6 ndc (Civil) Brigadier General Abu Sayeed Mohammad 7 Chief Instructor Ali, ndu, afwc, psc Commodore Syed Misbahuddin Ahmed, 8 Directing Staff (Navy) (C), NUP, ndc, afwc, psc Brigadier General Md Shamim Kamal, ndu, 9 Directing Staff (Army) afwc, psc, M Phil Brigadier General Syed Sabbir Ahmed, 10 Directing Staff (Army) afwc, psc Brigadier General Abdul Motaleb Sazzad 11 Directing Staff (Army) Mahmud, SGP, ndu, afwc, psc Brigadier General Abu Mohammad Sarwar 12 Directing Staff (Army) Farid, afwc, psc Brigadier General Md Hakimuzzaman, 13 Directing Staff (Army) SGP, afwc, psc, Engrs Air Commodore Md Mostafa Mahmood 14 Directing Staff (Air) Siddiq, afwc, psc, GD (P) 15 Colonel Md Imrul Mabud, SUP, afwc, psc Directing Staff (Army) 16 Colonel Md Badrul Ahsan, psc Colonel Administration

86 Ser Rank and Name Appointment Captain M Atiqur Rahman, (G), afwc, psc, 17 Colonel General Staff BN Lieutenant Colonel Syed Jamil Ahsan, afwc, General Staff Officer-1 18 psc (Training) Lieutenant Colonel Md Kamrul Islam, General Staff Officer 19 BGBM, psc, Arty -1 (Administration) Lieutenant Colonel Nizam Uddin Ahmed, Senior Research 20 afwc, psc, Engrs Fellow-1 Lieutenant Colonel Muhammad Alamgir Senior Research 21 Iqbal Khan, psc, Arty Fellow-2 22 Major Syed Arshad Ahmed, Arty Company Commander General Staff Officer 23 Major Md Akhlaq-Uz-Zaman, EB -2 (Coordination) General Staff 24 Major Md Shakhawat Ali, Arty Officer-2 (Planning & Coordination) General Staff Officer-2 25 Major Ahmed Ashequl Arefin, Inf (Administration) Mechanical Transport 26 Major Md Asrafuddowla, psc, ASC Officer General Staff Officer 27 Major Md Monowarul Karim, GL, Inf -2 (Accounts) General Staff 28 Major Afsana Rahman, psc, Sigs Officer -2 (Network Administration) 30 Major Saquib Ibne Rashid, AC Quarter Master Lieutenant Commander Israth Zahan, General Staff Officer 31 (ND), BN -2 (Training Support) Squadron Leader Mohammed Iqram General Staff Officer 32 Hossain, Edn, BAF -2 (Protocol) Senior Assistant Secretary Syeda Nurmahal 33 Research Coordinator Ashrafi

87 Ser Rank and Name Appointment Assistant Professor (English) Nishat 34 Research Fellow Sultana Captain Mohammad Sarkit Nawaz Sazal, 35 Coord, SDS (Army-2) Inf 36 Captain Noor Mohammad Nofaer, Sigs ADC to Commandant 37 Lieutenant Fahim Ahmed, (S), BNVR Coord, SDS (Navy) Flight Lieutenant Rafat Zahin Ahmed, General Staff Officer 38 Admin, BAF -3 (AFWC Wing) 39 Flight Lieutenant Nazir Uddin Nazran Coord, SDS (Air) Assistant Director 40 Md Nazrul Islam (Library)

88 NDC Participants (Course Members of National Defence Course - 2019)

Ser Rank Name Country Allied Course Members 1 Colonel Zhou Ming Jun China 2 Brigadier General Ayman Ibrahim Salem Zaied Egypt 3 Brigadier Mandeep Pal Singh Gill India 4 Commodore Rajiv Ashok India 5 Air Commodore Rajat Mohan, VM, F(P) India 6 Colonel Heru Setio Paripurnawan Indonesia 7 Staff Colonel Ibrahim Saad Al-Saadan KSA 8 Staff Brigadier Faleh Mabruk S. Al-Juhani KSA 9 Staff Colonel Sultan Bin Ayed Alenazi KSA 10 Staff Brigadier (Pilot) Mufadi Qadeim Al-enazi KSA 11 Colonel Mishial Y Y E Alsafran Kuwait 12 Colonel Meshal Y E T Alebraheem Kuwait 13 Brigadier General Mohd Kahar Bin Mohd Kassim Malaysia 14 Colonel Joseph Coulibaly Mali 15 Brigadier General Sudarshan Silwal Nepal 16 Colonel Kimba Tahirou Niger 17 Colonel AM Grema Nigeria 18 Colonel Musa Abubakar Sadiq Nigeria 19 Colonel Chima Abraham Ekeator Nigeria 20 Colonel SM Uba Nigeria 21 Colonel Risku Ezra Hedima Nigeria 22 Group Captain Nosiru Babatunde Folaji Nigeria 23 Captain Chikaji Aminu Isah Nigeria 24 Group Captain Sunday Usman Bello Nigeria 25 Group Captain Musabah Bin Khalfan Al Harassi Oman 26 Group Captain Syed Hashmat Iqbal, fawc, psa Pakistan 27 Brigadier A K G K U Gnanaratne, psc Sri Lanka 28 Commodore Neville Amara Ubayasiri Sri Lanka 29 Air Commodore A J Amerasinghe Sri Lanka 30 Captain (N) Frank Jothamu Mwasikolile Tanzania 31 Lieutenant Colonel Allan Hinton UK

89 Ser Rank Name Bangladesh Army 32 Brigadier General Zakir Ahmed, psc 33 Brigadier General Mohammad Ayub Chowdhury, PBGMS, psc 34 Brigadier General Md Jahangir Harun, SGP, afwc, psc 35 Brigadier General Ohidul Alam Chowdhury, SPP, psc 36 Brigadier General Md Ahsanul Kabir, afwc, psc 37 Brigadier General Abu Hena Mohammad Sadrul Alam, psc 38 Brigadier General Bashir Ahmed, psc 39 Brigadier General Md Anisur Rahman, afwc, psc 40 Brigadier General Mohammad Adil Choudhury, psc 41 Brigadier General Md Selim Mahmud, afwc, psc 42 Brigadier General I K M Mostahsenul Baki, afwc, psc 43 Brigadier General M Nuruzzaman Chowdhury, psc 44 Brigadier General Md Mizanur Rahman, psc 45 Brigadier General Abdullah - Al - Mamun, psc 46 Brigadier General Abdullah Al Mamun, SPP, psc, G 47 Brigadier General Md Mahbub - ul Alam, afwc, psc 48 Brigadier General Md Naheed Asgar, afwc, psc 49 Brigadier General Mohammod Al Masum, PBGM, psc 50 Brigadier General Tamjidul Haque Chowdhury, afwc, psc 51 Brigadier General Md Abu Bakar Siddique Khan, afwc, psc, G+ 52 Brigadier General Md Masudur Rahman, psc 53 Brigadier General Md Nasim Parvez, afwc, psc 54 Brigadier General A N M Manzoorul Hauqe Mazumder, afwc, psc, G 55 Brigadier General Md Kaisar Hasan Malik, psc 56 Brigadier General Md Sadequzzaman, afwc, psc 57 Brigadier General J M Emdadul Islam, afwc, psc 58 Brigadier General Ali Reza Mohammad Ashaduzzaman, psc 59 Brigadier General Bashir Ahmed, psc, G+ 60 Brigadier General Muhammad Ali Talukder, afwc, psc Bangladesh Navy 61 Commodore Golam Sadeq, (G), NGP, ncc, psc, BN 62 Commodore Mir Ershad Ali, (G), NPP, psc, BN

90 Ser Rank Name 63 Commodore Abu Sayed Mohammad Afzalul Haque, (TAS), NPP, psc, BN 64 Captain Mohammad Nazrul Islam, (S), NPP, psc, BN 65 Captain Mohammad Arshad Kabir, (L), psc, BN Bangladesh Air Force 66 Air Commodore Javed Tanveer Khan, afwc, acsc, psc, GD (P) 67 Air Commodore Syed Sayeedur Rahman, BUP, afwc, psc, GD (P) 68 Air Commodore A F M Shamimul Islam, afwc, psc, GD (P) 69 Group Captain Sk Abul Kashem, psc, Admin 70 Group Captain Md Aminul Haque, psc, Engg Bangladesh Civil Service 71 Joint Secretary Md. Oliullah 72 Additional Secretary Sheikh Shoebul Alam 73 Additional Secretary Md Kamrul Hasan 74 Joint Secretary Khan Md Nurul Amin 75 Joint Secretary Nusrat Jabeen Banu 76 Joint Secretary Muhammad Wahiduzzaman 77 Joint Secretary Muhammad Hiruzzaman 78 Joint Secretary G S M Jafarullah 79 Joint Secretary Sanjida Sobhan 80 Joint Secretary Ishrat Chowdhury 81 Joint Secretary Md Momtaz Uddin 82 Joint Secretary Abdul Latif Khan 83 Deputy Inspector AKM Shahidur Rahman, PPM General 84 Deputy Inspector Md. Abdullah - Al - Mahmud, BPM General 85 Director General Mr. Mohammad Sarwar Mahmood

91 NDC Participants (Course Members of Armed Forces War Course-2019)

Ser Rank Name Bangladesh Army 1. Lieutenant Colonel Mohammad Rafiqul Hasan, psc, G+ 2. Lieutenant Colonel Mohammad Raisul Islam, psc 3. Lieutenant Colonel Mir Sarwar Hossain Chowdhury, psc 4. Lieutenant Colonel Md Faruque Howlader,psc 5. Lieutenant Colonel M A Saadi, psc 6. Lieutenant Colonel Md Mafizul Islam Rashed, psc 7. Lieutenant Colonel Golam Kibria Zaman, psc 8. Lieutenant Colonel Syed Obaidullah Hel Shafi, psc 9. Lieutenant Colonel Md Syeedur Rahman, psc 10. Lieutenant Colonel Md Mostafa lquebal, psc 11. Lieutenant Colonel A B M Faruquzzaman, psc, G 12. Lieutenant Colonel Syed Fazle Gaus, psc 13. Lieutenant Colonel Raisul lslam, psc 14. Lieutenant Colonel Md Iftekharul Mabud, psc 15. Lieutenant Colonel Shahriar Kabir, psc 16. Lieutenant Colonel Khandoker Tariqul lslam, psc 17. Lieutenant Colonel Bhuiyan Mohammad Golam Kibria, psc 18. Lieutenant Colonel Md Mohashin Reza, OSP. psc 19. Lieutenant Colonel Md Mizanur Rahman, psc 20. Lieutenant Colonel Md Anwar Uz Zaman, PPM, psc, G 21. Lieutenant Colonel K M Obaydul Haque, psc 22. Lieutenant Colonel Mohammad Masud Parvez, psc 23. Lieutenant Colonel Mohammad Neyamate Tariqullah, SUP, psc 24. Lieutenant Colonel Kazi Nadir Hossain, psc, G+ 25. Lieutenant Colonel Abu Hayder Mohammad Rasheluzzaman, psc 26. Lieutenant Colonel Mohammad Asadulah Jamshed, psc Bangladesh Navy 27. Captain Ziaur Rahman, (TAS), psc, BN 28. Commander Mohammad Mahbub-ul-Hakim, (S), psc, BN 29. Commander Kazi Sabbir Hossain, (TAS), psc, BN

92 Ser Rank Name 30. Commander Khandakar Elius Khachon, (G), psc, BN 31. Commander Mufakhkharul Islam Sharif, (C), psc, BN 32 Commander Mohammad Iftekhar Jhahan Mehedi (ND), psc, BN Bangladesh Air Force 33. Group Captain Md Rafiul Huq, BPP, psc, ADWC 34. Group Captain Khan Md Mahmudul Huq, psc, GD (P) 35. Group Captain Hasan Ashrafuzzaman, psc, GD (P) 36. Group Captain Md Monuruzzaman Howlader, acsc, psc, GD (P) 37. Group Captain S M Shabbir Ahmed, psc, GD (P) 38. Wing Commander Md Safiul Islam, psc

93 Outside Participants

Ser. Rank & Name Appointment Organization Adviser to the Hon’ble Dr. Towfiq-E-Elahi Prime Minister (Power, Prime Minister 1 Chowdhury, Bir Energy & Mineral Office Bikram Resources Affairs) Professor Md Kawser Department of Ahmed Oceanography, University of 2 Faculty of Earth & Dhaka Environmental Sciences Department of Professor Dr. Hassan North South 3 Environmental Science Mahmud University and Management Mr. A K M Mamunur Climate Change 4 UNDP, Bangladesh Rashid Specialist Bangladesh Professor Dr. Md. Civil Engineering University of 5 Mafizur Rahman Department Engineering & Technology (BUET) Professor Dr. Delwar Department of University of 6 Hossain International Relations Dhaka Khondoker Mokaddem Bangladesh Open 7 Pro Vice Chancellor Hossain, PhD University Department of Political University of 8 Dr. Tasneem Siddiqui Science Dhaka Migration and Refugee 9 Mr. Asif Munier Specialist Additional Secretary Ministry of 10 Ranjit Kumar Sen, ndc Defence Additional Secretary Ministry of 11 Planning Division Swapan Chandra Paul Planning Ministry of 12 Nahida Sobhan Director General Foreign Affairs Ministry of Disaster Joint Secretary 13 Management and Momena Khatun Relief

94 Ser. Rank & Name Appointment Organization Bangladesh Forest Additional Secretary 14 Managing Director Development Md Abdul Karim, ndc Corporation Dr. Md. Zahidur Directorate of 15 Divisional Forest Officer Rahman Miah Forest Additional Secretary Ministry of 16 Dr. Mohiuddin Ahmed Information Colonel Mohammed Armed Forces 17 Colonel Staff Rezaul Karim Division Group Captain Md Armed Forces 18 Colonel Staff Ashraful Islam Division Colonel Md Ashraful Army 19 Alam, psc Headquarters Colonel Mohammad Army 20 Colonel Staff Ali Reza, SGP, afwc, psc Headquarters Colonel Mohammad Army 21 Shahidul Abedin, Colonel Staff Headquarters afwc, psc Commodore Naval 22 Mohammad Matiur Director of Naval Stores Headquarters Rahman Captain Abdullah-Al- Director of Personnel Naval 23 Maksus Services Headquarters Air Commodore Md 24 Shafiqul Islam, ndc, PM Directorate Air Headquarters fawc, psc Group Captain 25 Sadikur Rahman CI’s Office Air Headquarters Chowdhury, GUP, psc Air Commodore Mridha Md Bangladesh Air 26 BAC Ekramuzzaman, BPP, Force ndc, afwc, psc Bangladesh Ansar 27 Md Firoz Khan Deputy Director General & VDP Bangladesh Ansar 28 Mahboob Ul Islam Deputy Director General & VDP

95 Ser. Rank & Name Appointment Organization Lieutenant General 29 A T M Zahirul Alam, Former Commandant NDC rcds, psc (Retd) Air Vice Marshal M 30 Sanaul Huq, GUP, Former Faculty NDC ndc, psc, GD(P) Additional Secretary 31 Nurus Safa Former Faculty NDC Chowdhury, ndc (retd) Colonel Sheikh Bangladesh Institute 32 Masud Ahmed, SPP, Research Director of International and psc Strategic Studies (BIISS) 33 M Ashique Rahman Research Fellow BIISS Bangladesh Deputy Controller of 34 Liton Chandro Sarkar University of Examinations Professionals (BUP) 35 Mahmuda Akter Section Officer BUP Major Md Matiur 36 BUP Rahman, G, Arty Major Mohammad 37 BUP Manzurul Kabir, AC Dr. Kazi Khadem Ul 38 Assistant Professor BUP Islam 39 Md. Asadul Islam Programmer BUP Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Group Captain Md 40 Rahman Aviation Zahir Uddin & Aerospace University Captain Md. Bangabandhu Sheikh 41 Shafiquer Rahman, Mujibur Rahman BN Maritime University Military Institute Colonel Md Shawkat 42 of Science & Hossain Technology

96 Ser. Rank & Name Appointment Organization Military Institute Colonel Md 43 of Science & Monzurul Islam Technology Defence Services Major General Md 44 Commandant Command & Staff Enayet Ullah College (DSCSC) Colonel Md Alimul 45 Senior Instructor (Army) DSCSC Amin Lieutenant Colonel 46 S M Naimul Haque, Directing Staff DSCSC psc, BIR Wing Commander 47 Mohammad Arifur Directing Staff DSCSC Rahman Commander M 48 DSCSC Shahriar Alam 49 Major Nahid Niaz DSCSC Additional Inspector General of Police Police Staff 50 Rector SK Md Maruf Hasan College BPM, PPM Mohammad Director, Research & Police Staff 51 Shahjahan, PhD Publication College MDS (Academic & Police Staff 52 Md. Golam Rasul Research ) College Commodore 53 Mohammad Anamul Director, RDB HQ DGFI Haque, (C), psc, BN Air Commodore 54 Director, EALB HQ DGFI Rushad Din Asad Commodore M Coast Guard 55 Mamunur Rashid, Headquarters afwc, psc Brigadier General Md 6 Independent Air 56 Khaled-Al-Mamun, Commander Defence Artillery ndc, psc Brigade

97 Ser. Rank & Name Appointment Organization Inter Service Press 57 Md Shahadat Hssain Research Officer Release 58 Md Mainul Islam Reporter News 24 59 Shah Atikur Rahman Reporter Somoy TV 60 Ripon Mahmud Reporter Dipto TV 61 Bappi Das Reporter My TV 62 Sohana Mehtab Reporter My TV 63 Arun Roy Reporter Dignto TV 64 Humayun Kabir Reporter Digonto TV 65 Mizanur Rahman Reporter DBC 66 Biplab Shahriar Reporter DBC 67 Azizur Rahman Reporter Channel 9 68 Shafiqu Islam Reporter BSS Bangladesh 69 Mamun Ur Rashid Television Bangladesh 70 Hemayet Uddin Television

Moderator/Coordinators

1. Major General A K M Abdullahil Senior Directing Chief Coordinator Baquee, rcds, ndu, psc Staff (Army) Lieutenant Colonel Nizam Acting Director, 2. Uddin Ahmed, afwc, psc, Research and Coordinator Engrs Academic Lieutenant Colonel 3. Senior Research Associate Muhammad Alamgir Iqbal Fellow Coordinator Khan, psc, Arty 4. Assistant Professor Nishat Assistant Research Fellow Sultana Coordinator Assistant 5. Assistant Md Nazrul Islam Director Coordinator (Library)

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