Older BME People and Financial Inclusion Report The future ageing of the ethnic minority population of England and Wales Nat Lievesley Disclaimer Runnymede: Intelligence The facts presented and views expressed in this publication for a Multi-ethnic Britain are those of the author. The results described in this report are both provisional and experimental and should be cited as such. The data used derives from various sources (given with tables), but the results are solely the author’s responsibility. Runnymede is the UK’s leading The author accepts no responsibility for any consequences independent thinktank on race of the use of the data published in this report. Please report equality and race relations. 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Centre for Policy on Ageing 25–31 Ironmonger Row London EC1V 3QP T 020 7553 6500 F 020 7553 6501 E [email protected] www.cpa.org.uk Contents Foreword 2 Executive summary 4 1 Background 6 2 Alternative projection methods 8 2.1 Cohort component projections 8 2.2 Extrapolation and curve fitting 8 2.3 Probabilistic projections 8 3 The ethnic minority population of England and Wales in 2007 10 3.1 Age structure of the ethnic minority population in 2007 12 4 Ethnic minority population projections by extrapolation to 2026 17 5 The elements of ethnic minority cohort component population projection 23 5.1 Ethnic minority - fertility 23 5.2 Ethnic minority - mortality 28 5.3 Ethnic minority - migration 31 5.4 Transgenerational ethnic transfer 37 6 Ethnic minority cohort component population projections to 2051 38 6.1 Overview 38 6.2 The ethnic minority population in 2016 44 6.3 The ethnic minority population in 2026 49 6.4 The ethnic minority population in 2051 54 7 The older ethnic minority population 59 8 Summary and conclusions 62 Appendix (Tables) 65 References 75 Further readings 76 2 Older BME People and Financial Inclusion Report Foreword Two trends in contemporary Europe are the subject Returning to this report, estimating the future older of widespread discussion – and often anxiety. First is Black and minority ethnic population provides an the increasing diversity of our population, and second important background for thinking about policy, is the ageing of that population. Anxieties about public life, and the economy of the United Kingdom diversity are frequently framed as a cultural threat to in the next 40 years. Runnymede first considered Europe’s identity or way of life, while anxieties about estimates of the BME population in a 1971 report, an ageing population are more regularly framed in and until the 1991 Census – when ethnicity was economic terms, or about the viability of Europe’s first included – we consistently argued in favour of economic model in an increasingly competitive world. collecting data on ethnicity. Since 1991, researchers Among the many developments overlooked by these and policymakers have been able to analyse data on impressionistic apprehensions is any sense that ethnicity, not simply to count heads, but to provide the older population is increasingly diverse – and is a more differentiated picture of how different ethnic likely to become more so in the future. Outlining this groups are faring in education, employment and future is the key aim of this report, commissioned by health – and at a regional or even ward-based level. Runnymede and written by the Centre for Policy The 1991, 2001 and future 2011 Censuses are on Ageing. arguably the best datasets allowing for comparability over time for outcomes according to ethnicity, This report, estimating the future older Black and although the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing minority ethnic population (BME), is part of a three- and Household Longitudinal Study offer more refined year Runnymede research programme on financial information in other areas. inclusion among older BME people. To understand the experiences, choices and aspirations of older Predicting the future is often a hazardous pursuit. BME people, we will conduct three long-term This report, The Future Ageing of the Ethnic Minority qualitative research projects, but before doing so, Population of England and Wales, isn’t actually a we must understand the conditions framing prediction of the future Black and minority ethnic those experiences. population of the United Kingdom, but an indication – based on statistical analysis of current evidence By indicating the extent of the future diversity of and recent trends – of what that future population the older population, this report provides crucial is likely to look like. Statistical modelling of the sort background for this wider programme. It also deployed in this report makes prognostication much contributes to policy debate on ageing generally. more reliable, especially if we appreciate its methods, For example, while most BME people live in urban assumptions and limitations. areas, many older people retire in rural or seaside areas where there are relatively few Black and In particular, forecasting future populations are minority ethnic people. For local authorities and subject to a variety of social and economic indeed national agencies, the increased diversity and changes, but also policy change. This is perhaps distribution of the future older population needs to be most significant in the context of immigration: we planned for today. have assumed lower levels of immigration in future because we take politicians of all parties at their word People’s retirement decisions often also include that they will reduce net migration. Nonetheless, considering moving abroad. As Runnymede outlines this policy direction may change in future, and so in a second report, many of the current older BME statisticians – or indeed any social commentary – people in the UK were born abroad, and so may must unavoidably make assumptions about future consider ‘return’ migration. While these first two policy and social change. Assumptions may of desk-based reports provide crucial background, course be criticised, but they are typically supported our future research will involve hundreds of by assessing current trends and previous evidence, interviews with ordinary BME older people and and of course the environment in which a particular key experts. It will also include two ‘deliberative estimate is produced. assemblies’ in which older people will be able to voice their own views and concerns, on retirement Regarding immigration, assumptions must address decision-making, grandparenting and asset-sharing immigration and emigration flows, as well as net across generations. migration over time, across different ethnic groups and among people born overseas and in the UK. The future ageing of the ethnic minority population of England and Wales 3 Our report discusses immigration and emigration assumes some ‘ethnic switching’ will take place. separately, but our model uses net migration and Though this is likely to have little effect on the total applies age structures differently to a net inflow or BME population, it does impact our estimates for net outflow. We have used ONS 2001–2007 average particular ethnic groups. net migration for each ethnic group and scaled it to accommodate future reductions. It is perhaps Our research addresses policy on ageing, ethnicity worth noting that a recent report by researchers at and financial inclusion, and so this report highlights the University of Leeds assumed a fairly high rate of the age distribution within the future BME population. emigration for some groups, including Black African While this does not affect our statistical modelling, and Chinese. This is an important issue, as perhaps it does inform the way we’ve presented the data, half of all migrants leave the UK within five years of namely in terms of age distribution for each ethnic arrival, and we will soon be conducting interviews group. This is of course not the only important social to determine if certain BME groups will indeed phenomenon related to a growing BME population.