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Draft V0.1 7/11/12 Sheffield 2012: JSNA Demographics Background Data Report DRAFT V0.1 7/11/12 Sheffield 2012: JSNA Demographics Background Data Report Data to support the refresh of JSNA 2012 The report covers Ann Richardson Public Health Analysis Team Sheffield population trends NHS Sheffield Projections (overall and by age groups) 722 Prince of Wales Road Population distribution across the city Sheffield Ethnic populations S9 4EX Tel: 0114 305 1250 E-mail: ann.richardson @sheffieldpct.nhs.uk Date: 5 November 2012 Ref: 2012 (10) V1.0 Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 1 of 23 Sheffield 2012: JSNA Demographics Background Data Report Title Sheffield 2012: JSNA Demographics Background Data Report Reference Status (Draft / Issued) DRAFT Version 0.1 Date Created 05.11.12 Approved By Commissioned by Jeremy Wight Audience Distribution FOI Category No restrictions Author Ann Richardson, Public Health Analysis Team Owner (if different) Amendment History Review date Comments TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Key Points ............................................................................................................................. 3 2 Introduction............................................................................................................................ 5 3 Sheffield Population Trends .................................................................................................. 5 3.1 Sheffield Clinical Commissioning Group (SCCG) Resident and Registered ................. 6 3.2 Age and Sex Structure .................................................................................................. 6 3.3 Change by Age Group................................................................................................... 7 3.4 Variations in Population Across the City........................................................................ 9 3.5 Variations in age group composition across the City................................................... 10 3.5.1 0-5 year olds ........................................................................................................ 10 3.5.2 75+ year olds ....................................................................................................... 11 3.6 Comparison of ONS and NHS Sheffield Data ............................................................. 12 3.6.1 Trend Data........................................................................................................... 13 3.6.2 Comparison with the 2011 Census...................................................................... 13 4 Population Projections and Population Change .................................................................. 13 4.1 Components of Population Change............................................................................. 13 4.1.1 Births and Deaths ................................................................................................ 14 4.1.2 Migration .............................................................................................................. 14 4.2 Drivers of Change by Age Group ................................................................................ 15 5 Ethnicity............................................................................................................................... 15 5.1 ONS experimental data 2007 ...................................................................................... 16 5.2 Geographical distribution............................................................................................. 18 5.3 School Children (5 to 16) by Ethnic Group .................................................................. 18 5.4 Births by Ethnic Group................................................................................................. 20 6 APPENDIX 1 – Neighbourhood Reference Map ................................................................. 22 7 APPENDIX 2 – Data Sources.............................................................................................. 23 7.1 Population Trends and Small Area Counts.................................................................. 23 7.1.1 Office of National Statistics.................................................................................. 23 7.1.2 NHS Sheffield Population Health Register .......................................................... 23 7.2 Data on Ethnicity ......................................................................................................... 23 Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 2 of 23 Sheffield 2012: JSNA Demographics Background Data Report 1 Key Points Total population: 551,800 in 2011, predicted to rise by by 4.5% to 576,600 in 2017 (5 years hence), and by 6.8% to 589,500 in 2021 (9 years hence). 99% of the Sheffield population registered with GP practices are registered with NHS Sheffield. 6.1% are aged under 5, 24.4% under 20, 7.5% aged 75 and over, 2.1% aged 85 and over, and 0.8aged 95 and over. By 2017 ( 5 years hence) ONS project an increase of 8.5% (3,450 persons) aged 75+, and a 6.3% (2,100) increase in children aged under 5. By nine years hence (2012) there is projected 26.8% increase in 85+ year olds, and an 18.7% increase in 75+ year olds Neighbourhoods showing the largest increase in population between April 2008 and April 2012 are the City Centre, and Netherthorpe The distribution of population by age group varies across the City, and this has a direct impact on service usage and planning. There are two neighbourhoods (Tinsley and Firvale) where over 10% of the population are aged under 5 years old. 15.0% of the population in Lodge Moor neighbourhood is aged 75+ and 7 other neighbourhoods have over 12% of the population in this age group. There are four neighbourhoods (Tinsley, Firvale, Woodside and Burngreave) where over 90% of school children are from a non-White-British ethnic group Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 3 of 23 Sheffield 2012: JSNA Demographics Background Data Report Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 4 of 23 Sheffield 2012: JSNA Demographics Background Data Report 2 Introduction This report has been commissioned by Jeremy Wight, Director of Public Health NHS Sheffield. It is intended to provide an overview of Sheffield of basic demographic data to support the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) process. Further detailed breakdowns of much of this data for geographical areas within Sheffield, i.e. the 100 Sheffield Neighbourhoods, 28 Electoral Wards and 7 Community Assemblies is obtainable via the Health Data and Reports section of the NHS Sheffield website. Figure 1 shows the above boundaries. http://www.sheffield.nhs.uk/healthdata/ Sheffield Neighbourhood Health and Well-being Atlas (includes neighbourhoods and Service Districts) Sheffield Ward Health and Well-being Atlas (includes wards and Community Assemblies) Neighbourhood Health Profiles Ward Health Profiles (includes Wards and Community Assemblies) A reference map of neighbourhoods can be found in Appendix 1. Brief details of the main sources of Sheffield population data used in this report can be found in Appendix 2. 3 Sheffield Population Trends The latest population estimate for Sheffield published by the ONS is 551,800 (mid 2011 estimate). The latest ONS projections (2011 based) predict an increase in the Sheffield population by 4.5% to 576,600 in 2017 (5 years hence), and by 6.8% to 589,500 in 2021 (9 years hence), (Figure 1) Figure 1 Sheffield Total Population 1974 to 2011 (ONS mid year estimates and 2011 based projections) 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 ONS Mid Yr Estimates ONS 2011 based projections 350,000 Number of persons of Number 300,000 250,000 200,000 Note : scale origin not 0 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Year Source: ONS Public Health Analysis Team, NHS Sheffield, 6/11/12 Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 5 of 23 Sheffield 2012: JSNA Demographics Background Data Report 3.1 Sheffield Clinical Commissioning Group (SCCG) Resident and Registered NHS Sheffield Clinical Commissioning Group (SCCG) is responsible for commissioning health care for all persons who registered with Sheffield GP practices. This includes Sheffield residents and some non-Sheffield residents. It is also responsible for Sheffield residents who are not registered with any practice. It also follows that some Sheffield residents are registered with non-Sheffield practices. SCCG has regular population extracts of all Sheffield residents (whomever they are registered with). This data source is called the Population Health Register (PHR) and allows the production of detailed population counts for small areas within Sheffield using the data items of age and sex. It however does not have any information on ethnic group. SCCG also has quarterly data on the total number of persons who are registered with it. The most recent Office of National Statistics (ONS) estimate of the Sheffield resident population is 551,800 for mid 2011. This estimate is however 1.8% lower than the actual number of Sheffield residents registered with any general practice of 561,527 in July 2011, and 3.1% lower than the number of Sheffield residents registered with general practices in July 2012 (569,153). The majority of persons registered with Sheffield CCG are Sheffield residents, 98.6% of the total 570,697 persons in April 2012,
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