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Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: a Real-Time Review of Country Measures

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Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: a Real-Time Review of Country Measures Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures “Living paper” version 8 (May 8, 2020) Ugo Gentilini (WB), Mohamed Almenfi (WB), and Pamela Dale (UNICEF) This paper benefited enormously from contributions by Miglena Abels, Aysenur Acar, Nazanin Akhgar, Haleem Hassan Kashkol Al-Kazali, Amel Allahoum, Colin Andrews, Edward Archibald, Temilade Aromolaran, Jehan Arulpragasam, Angela Elzir Assy, Ashiq Aziz, Reena Badiani-Magnusson, Sarah Bailey, Paul Bance, Mehdi Barouni, Roland Berenger Berehoudougou, Martina Bergthaller, Anush Bezhanyan, Mira Bierbaum, Christian Bodewig, , Stefanie Brodmann, Hugo Brousset Chaman, Yoonyoung Cho, Francesca Ciardi, Emmanuelle Collet, Facundo Cuevas, Matthew Cummins, Pamela Dale, Louise Moreira Daniel, Marie-Christina Dankmeyer, Benedicte Leroy De La Briere, Gustavo Demarco, Malin Linnea Sofia Ed, Randa El-Rashidi, Gerardo Escaroz, Fatou Fall, Maliha Fanning, Gabrielle Fox, Luis Frota, Carlos Galian, Jordi Jose Gallego-Ayala, Maria Concepcion Steta Gandara, Elena Glinskaya, Elisaveta Gouretskaia, Rebekka Grun, Sabina Guliyeva, Melis Guven, Courtney Hallink, Mahdi Halmi, Siddharth Hari, Gonzalo Javier Reyes Hartley, Abu Yadetta Hateu, Alessandra Heinemann, Johannes Hoenigl, Maddalena Honorati, Armenuhi Hovakimyan, Su Su Htay, Roberto Iacono, Kumiko Imai, Adina-Maria Iorganda, Buthaina al-Iryani, Aylin Isik-Dikmelik, Marijana Jasarevic, Mustafa Kadhim Mohammed, Alex Kamurase, Sandor Karacsony, Dmitri Karasyov, Selma Kasic, Ayaba Gilberte Kedote, Qaiser Khan, Johannes Koettl, Julian Alexander Koschorke, Adea Kryeziu, Francesca Lamanna, Aleksandar Lazovski, Matthieu Lefebvre, Kook Hee Lee, Louisa Lippi, Christina Lowe, Mattias Lundberg, Mattia Makovic, Iftikhar Malik, Alicia C. Marguerie, Jonathan Marskell, Alessandra Marini, Erica Mattellone, Shea McClanahan, Karla McEvoy, Natalia Millan, Emma Mistiaen, Khalid Ahmed Ali Moheyddeen, Matteo Morgandi, Harry Edmund Moroz, Martien Van Nieuwkoop, Desislava Enikova Nikolova, Nga Nguyet Nguyen, Noel Muller, Anthony Njage, Marina Novikova, Marija Novkovic, Foluke Adetola Ojelabi, Philip O’Keefe, Yulia Olenik, Vitorino Mello Oliveira, Ian Orton, Mirey Ovadiya, Efsan Nas Ozen, Truman Packard, Karuna Pal, Robert Palacios, Montserrat Pallares-Miralles, Ekaterina Pankratova, Ana Pantelic, Jasmina Papa, Clemente Avila Parra, Kenia Parsons, Nathalie Pazmino, Luca Pellerano, Remy Pigois, Ariel Pino, Juul Pinxten, Lucian Bucur Pop, Aleksandra Posarac, Nadine Poupart, Ana Prodanovic, Pamela Pozarny, Ma. Lourdes M. Rivera, Nina Rosas Raffo, Amanina Binti Abdur Rahman, Zandile Portia Ratshitanga, F. Zehra Rizvi, Claudia Rodriguez Alas, Mba Minko Djekombe Rony, Pedro Rosas, Friederike Uta Rother, Solene Rougeaux, Monica Rubio, Mira Saidi, Manuel Salazar, Marijana Šalinović, Glayson dos Santos, Indhira Santos, Achim Schmillen, Anita Schwarz, Sirma Demir Seker, Karin Seyfert, Ivan Shulga, Nuno Cunha Meira Simoes, Karan Singhal, Charles Chilufya SJ, Andrius Skarnulis, Oleksiy A. Sluchynskyy, Rene Antonio Leon Solano, Tayana Charisse Oliveira de Souza, Tayllor Spadafora, Federico Spano, Maya Stern-Plaza, Victoria Strokova, Anna Sukhova, Kalilou Sylla, Claudia Zambra Taibo, Emil Tesliuc, Mauro Testaverde, Samman Thapa, Andrei Tretyak, Julieta M. Trias, Fiona Stewart, Gulsana Turusbekova, Emre Uckardesler, Silas Udahemuka, Uladzimir Valetka, Rashiel Velvarde, Fabio Veras, Andrea Vermehren, Dewen Wang, Asha M. Williams, Penny Williams, Briana Wilson, Natalia Winder-Rossi, Gelila Woodeneh, Yuliya Yafimenka, Alketa Zazo, Nahla Zeitoun, Lansong Zhang, Yukun Zhu, Roman Zhukovskyi, Mustapha Ziroili, Rocco Zizzamia, and Maria Zlatareva. The analysis and support of Saksham Khosla and Ana Veronica Lopez has been outstanding. Special thanks to Michal Rutkowski and David Stewart for their precious guidance and support. 1 As of May 8, 2020, a total of 171 countries (12 more since last week) have planned, introduced or adapted 801 social protection measures in response to COVID-19. This week’s new countries and territories include Caribbean Netherlands, Cuba, Curacao, Equatorial Guinea, Fiji, Gabon, Gibraltar, Guernsey, Malta, Moldova, Slovakia and Zambia. Figure 1. Number of countries and territories with planned or ongoing social protection measures in response to COVID-19 (March 20-May 8, 2020) 200 171 159 151 150 133 126 106 100 84 45 50 0 20. Mar 27. Mar 3. April 10. April 17. April 24. April 1. May 8. May Social assistance transfers keep remaining the most widely used class of interventions (60.7% of global responses, or 487 measures). These are complemented by significant action in social insurance and labor market-related measures (supply-side measures). Among safety nets, cash transfer programs remain the most widely used safety net intervention by governments. Overall, cash transfers include 246 COVID-related measures representing one-third (30.7%) of total social protection programs. There is a slight erosion of their prominence in social assistance, including a decline from 54 to 51% since last week (table 1 and figure 2). Social assistance by program N. of measures Cash transfers (conditional and unconditional) 215 Universal one-off cash 4 Childcare support 10 Social pensions 17 Sub-total (all cash-based measures) 246 in-kind food/voucher schemes 88 School feeding 23 Sub-total (all in-kind measures) 111 Utility and financial obligation support (waiver/postponement) 119 Cash for Work 11 Total SA measures 487 2 Figure 2. Composition of global social protection response (left), and cash transfers as % of social assistance (right) Social Assistance Social Insurance Labor Markets Other social assistance Cash 12%, 27%, 51% 49% 61%, Cash transfers include a mix of both new and pre-existing programs of various duration and generosity. About 60% of cash transfer measures (129 out of 215) are new programs in 88f countries, while one-fourth of measures (26%) are one-off payments. The average duration of transfers is 3.05 months (figure 3). The size of transfers is relatively generous, or 25% of monthly GDP per capita in respective countries. On average, transfers almost doubled, or increased by 91% compared to average pre-COVID transfer levels (where data is available for a subset of 14 countries) (figure 4). Figure 3. Cash transfer duration 6 months 4 months 3-6 months 3 months Duration Global average = 3 months 2 months 1.5 months 1 month 0 6 12 18 Number of countries 3 Figure 4. Increase in cash transfer size as % of pre-covid level Indonesia Global average = 91% Kosovo Barbados Moldova Armenia Angola Turkey Turks and Caicos islands Dominican Republic Albania Brazil South Korea Egypt Trinidad and Tobago 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% Cash transfers are being adapted to COVID-19 response in three ways. This includes expanding coverage, increasing benefits, and making administrative requirements simpler and more user-friendly. Combined, those adaptations in social assistance benefit over 1.46 billion people (individuals). Specifically, for cash transfers administrative adaptations are occurring in 27 countries (figure 5). For example, anticipation of payments that due at later date (e.g., Malaysia); flexibility in the time of collection (e.g., Algeria); home delivery of cash for seniors (e.g., Armenia); postponement of recertification (e.g., Georgia); waiving of conditionalities (e.g., Philippines); and sharing of delivery systems across programs (e.g., Jordan). Increases in benefits among preexisting programs are implemented in up to 37 countries, including transfer value being increased in 29 countries (e.g., Egypt) and additional payment cycles taking place in 11 countries (e.g., Chile) (some countries are doing both). Coverage extension is underway in 88 countries: this includes expanding coverage of existing programs (6 countries) and one-off programs provided in 38 countries (5 universal and 34 targeted). Combined, those adaptations across administration, generosity and coverage in cash transfers benefit over 1.04 billion people. If we only consider coverage (horizontal expansion) of new and existing cash transfer schemes, these cover an estimated 577.2 million people. 4 Figure 5. Adaptations in cash transfers Vertical expansion (more generous or Increase in both adequacy Only increase in adequacy adequate transfers) and coverage [37 countries, 43 measures] [9 countries, 9 measures] Admin adaptation Only coverage increase [27 countries, 32 measures] [87 countries, 135 measures] Horizontal expansion (coverage scale up) There are no updates on reported number in coverage extension, with cash transfer programs more than doubling (143%) in coverage relative to pre-pandemic levels. Preliminary analysis for a subset of cash transfer programs with comparable data allowed to estimate the scale up of programs relative to pre-COVID19 coverage (figure 6). Countries like the Philippines and El Salvador are quadrupling their coverage (in the case of Philippines also via multiple new programs), while even countries in Africa like Mauritania are almost doubling coverage. Figure 6. Coverage expansion in select cash transfer programs El Salvador Philippines Peru Colombia Total Cabo Verde North Macedonia Mauritania Global average = 143% Malaysia Argentina Armenia Thailand Montenegro 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 450% % coverage increase in cash transfers from pre to post-Covid level 5 In terms of social insurance, there has been a remarkable uptick in measures recently – now breaking the ceiling of 200 measures. Countries
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