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World Bank Document Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures “Living paper” version 12 (July 10, 2020) Public Disclosure Authorized Ugo Gentilini (WB), Mohamed Almenfi (WB), Pamela Dale (UNICEF), Ana Veronica Lopez (WB), and Usama Zafar (WB) This paper benefited enormously from contributions by Miglena Abels, Aysenur Acar, Hanan Ahli, Nazanin Akhgar, Haleem Hassan Kashkol Al-Kazali, Amel Allahoum, Andrew Allieu, Sulaiman Al Maazmi, Noora Al Qassi, Elena Andreeva, Colin Andrews, Edward Archibald, Temilade Aromolaran, Jehan Arulpragasam, Angela Elzir Assy, Ashiq Aziz, Indra Baatarkhuu, Reena Badiani-Magnusson, Yusuf Bafozoda, Sarah Bailey, Paul Bance, Anna Baranova, Mehdi Barouni, Roland Berenger Berehoudougou, Martina Bergthaller, Anush Bezhanyan, Sharon Corinne Benzoni, Mira Bierbaum, Gaston Mariano Blanco, Mark Blecher, Christian Bodewig, , Stefanie Public Disclosure Authorized Brodmann, Hugo Brousset Chaman, Dimitriy Bychkov, Yoonyoung Cho, Tungalag Chuluun, Francesca Ciardi, Emmanuelle Collet, Facundo Cuevas, Matthew Cummins, Pamela Dale, James Damon, Louise Moreira Daniel, Marie-Christina Dankmeyer, Benedicte Leroy De La Briere, Gustavo Demarco, Anastasiya Denisova, Malin Linnea Sofia Ed, Randa El-Rashidi, Gerardo Escaroz, Fatou Fall, Maliha Fanning, Olesia Feoktistova, Katharina Maria Fietz, Gabrielle Fox, Nicholas Freeland, Luis Frota, Carlos Galian, Jordi Jose Gallego-Ayala, Maria Concepcion Steta Gandara, Elena Glinskaya, Elisaveta Gouretskaia, Rebekka Grun, Sabina Guliyeva, Sibusiso Gumbi, Melis Guven, Courtney Hallink, Mahdi Halmi, Siddharth Hari, Gonzalo Javier Reyes Hartley, Abu Yadetta Hateu, Alessandra Heinemann, Himanshi Jain, Johannes Hoenigl, Maddalena Honorati, Armenuhi Hovakimyan, Su Su Htay, Roberto Iacono, Adina-Maria Iorganda, Kumiko Imai, Adina-Maria Iorganda, Buthaina al-Iryani, Aylin Isik-Dikmelik, Marijana Jasarevic, Mustafa Kadhim Mohammed, Amjad Zafar Khan, Alex Kamurase, Sandor Karacsony, Dmitri Karasyov, Selma Kasic, Yasuhiro Kawasoe, Ayaba Gilberte Kedote, Qaiser Khan, Johannes Koettl, Julian Alexander Koschorke, Mona Korsgard, Adea Kryeziu, Francesca Lamanna, Maria Laura, Aleksandar Lazovski, Matthieu Lefebvre, Kook Hee Lee, Phillippe George Leite, Louisa Lippi, Christina Lowe, Mattias Lundberg, Mattia Makovic, Iftikhar Malik, Alicia C. Marguerie, Jonathan Marskell, Ana Georgina Marin Espinosa, Alessandra Marini, Erica Mattellone, Shea McClanahan, Karla McEvoy, Cem Mete, Andrei Mikhnev, Natalia Millan, Emma Mistiaen, Anita Mittal, Khalid Ahmed Ali Moheyddeen, Matteo Morgandi, Harry Edmund Moroz, Ingrid Veronica Mujica, Lindi Mzankomo, Martien Van Public Disclosure Authorized Nieuwkoop, Desislava Enikova Nikolova, NIFI (Research Institute of Finance, Moscow), Nga Nguyet Nguyen, Noel Muller, Anthony Njage, Marina Novikova, Marija Novkovic, Foluke Adetola Ojelabi, Philip O’Keefe, Yulia Olenik, Vitorino Mello Oliveira, Junko Onishi, Ian Orton, Mirey Ovadiya, Efsan Nas Ozen, Truman Packard, Karuna Pal, Robert Palacios, Montserrat Pallares-Miralles, Ekaterina Pankratova, Ana Pantelic, Jasmina Papa, Clemente Avila Parra, Kenia Parsons, Nathalie Pazmino, Luca Pellerano, Remy Pigois, Ariel Pino, Juul Pinxten, Lucian Bucur Pop, Aleksandra Posarac, Nadine Poupart, Ana Prodanovic, Pamela Pozarny, Rodrigo Quintana, Lourdes M. Rivera, Nina Rosas Raffo, Amanina Binti Abdur Rahman, Zandile Portia Ratshitanga, F. Zehra Rizvi, Ruth Reyes Rodriguez, Luz Stella Rodriguez, Mba Minko Djekombe Rony, Pedro Rosas, Friederike Uta Rother, Solene Rougeaux, Monica Rubio, Mira Saidi, Manuel Salazar, Marijana Šalinović, Glayson dos Sonya Sampson, Gevorg Sargsyan Indhira Santos, Karin Schelzig, Achim Schmillen, Anita Schwarz, Sirma Demir Seker, Karin Seyfert, Maheshwor Shrestha, Ivan Shulga, Nuno Cunha Meira Simoes, Karan Singhal, Benjamin Kakule Sivasima, Charles Chilufya SJ, Andrius Skarnulis, Oleksiy A. Sluchynskyy, Rene Antonio Leon Solano, Tayana Charisse Oliveira de Souza, Tayllor Spadafora, Federico Spano, Maya Stern-Plaza, Victoria Strokova, Anna Sukhova, Changqing Sun, Kalilou Sylla, Claudia Zambra Taibo, Caroline Anne Isabelle Tassot, Emil Tesliuc, Mauro Testaverde, Samman Thapa, Stefan Thewissen, Andrei Tretyak, Julieta M. Trias, Fiona Stewart, Gulsana Turusbekova, Emre Uckardesler, Silas Udahemuka, Uladzimir Valetka, Rashiel Velvarde, Fabio Veras, Andrea Vermehren, Dewen Wang, Michael Weber, Asha M. Williams, Penny Williams, Briana Wilson, Natalia Winder-Rossi, Gelila Woodeneh, Yuliya Yafimenka, Ruslan G. Yemtsov, Soonhwa Yi, Alketa Zazo, Public Disclosure Authorized Nahla Zeitoun, Lansong Zhang, Yukun Zhu, Roman Zhukovskyi, Mustapha Ziroili, Rocco Zizzamia, and Maria Zlatareva. Special thanks go to Michal Rutkowski for his precious guidance and support, and Claudia Rodriguez-Alas and the ASPIRE team at the World Bank This review present preliminary findings and should be interpreted with caution. For more information, please contact Ugo Gentilini ([email protected]). 1 Global Covid19 cases continue to rise, but so do social protection responses to the pandemic. Since March, a total of 200 countries/territories, 5 more since our last update in June, have planned or put in place 1,055 social protection measures. The latter includes an additional 31 interventions compared to version 11 of this review (figure 1, left hand graph). Such growth is remarkable. Yet trends in social protection measures appear to flat out, while daily confirmed Covid19 cases are soaring exponentially (right hand graph). Figure 1. Trends in countries’ social protection measures (left) and Covid19 spread (right) 1200 200 250 1200 200 1055 1055 1000 215 1000 200 150 800 800 150 600 600 100 100 Number of countries (bars) 400 400 45 number of SP measures (yellow line) 50 Numberof SP measures (yellow line) 50 200 line) (dark ('000) cases C19 confirmed Daily 200 103 103 17 0 0 0 0 20. 27. 3. 10. 17. 24. 1. 8. 15. 22. 12. 10. 3-Jul 5-Jun 3-Apr 10-Jul 1-May 8-May Mar Mar April AprilAprilApril May May May May June July 12-Jun 19-Jun 26-Jun 10-Apr 17-Apr 24-Apr 20-Mar 27-Mar 15-May 22-May 29-May Source for C19 cases: Our World in Data database Social assistance accounts for most of the social protection response. A total of 638 measures were recorded, accounting for 60% of the response. Nearly 50% of those safety net measures, and about 30% of global measures, are various forms of cash-based transfers. Besides 298 cash transfer programs in 139 countries (6 of which universal transfers), a robust number (25) of social pension schemes is implemented in 22 countries (table 1). In- kind transfers are also substantial, with 22% of the social assistance portfolio including the distribution of food commodities, vouchers and school feeding programs. Both in-kind transfers and cash have bene growing steadily over time. Finally, 15 public work programs, a modality largely discontinued or amended in the early phases of the pandemic, are now present in 12 countries. Table 1. Social assistance program type N. of measures N. of countries Cash transfers (conditional and unconditional) 298 153 Social pensions 25 22 Sub-total (all cash-based measures) 323 138 In-kind food/voucher schemes 117 88 School feeding 27 25 Sub-total (all in-kind measures) 144 96 Utility and financial obligation support (waiver/postponement) 156 94 Public works 15 12 Total 638 176 Cash transfer programs tend to be of short duration and relatively generous in size. Information on duration is available for 71 cash transfer measures ranging from 1 to 12 months, for an average of 3.1 months (figure 2). In terms of generosity, data from 20 countries shows that average transfers doubled (+101%). The size of cash 2 transfers more than doubled in five countries (Mongolia, Trinidad and Tobago, Egypt, South Korea and Brazil). Overall, transfers represent 29% of average monthly GDP per capita. Figure 2. Duration (left) and generosity (right) of cash transfer programs Moldova 21% 12 months 1 Kosovo 30% Turkey 34% 9 months 1 Barbados 40% Russia 50% 6 months 9 Armenia 50% Cameron 61% 4 months 2 Angola 67% Turks and Caicos islands 100% 3-6 months 2 Sierra Leone 100% Indonesia 100% 3 months 34 Dominican Republic 100% Albania 100% 2 months 8 Average 101% Brazil 140% 1.5 months 1 South Korea 150% Egypt 157% 1 month 13 Trinidad and Tobago 200% 400% Mongolia 0 10 20 30 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Number of cash transfer programs Percentage increase from pre-C19 level Overall, social assistance continues to be adapted to the crisis. A total of 62 programs in 47 countries have simplified and made their administrative systems more user-friendly. This includes making it easier for people to access programs, provide advance payments, waiving conditionalities, allow for remote applications, etc. More generous transfers are provided for 78 programs in 58 countries, both in terms of higher transfer levels and extra payment cycles. Scale-up of program coverage is occurring in 165 countries and concerns 479 measures. Among them, existing programs are being scaled-up in 26 cases. A total of 454 programs are new (71% of social assistance), 79 of which are one-off measures (12% of the total). Table 2 and figure 3 report those adaptations. Table 2. Adaptation of social assistance N. of programs N. of countries Increase in existing benefits 78 58 Vertical expansion 54 39 Additional payment 24 27 Scale up coverage 479 165 Existing programs 26 21 New programs 454 165 one-off (targeted) 74 41 one-of (universal) 5 5 non-one off (universal) 1 1 non-one off (targeted) 374 156 Both vertical and horizontal
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