Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: a Real-Time Review of Country Measures
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Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures “Living paper” version 10 (May 22, 2020) Ugo Gentilini (WB), Mohamed Almenfi (WB), Pamela Dale (UNICEF), John Blomquist (WB), Harish Natarajan (WB), Guillermo Galicia (WB), Robert Palacios (WB), and Vyjayanti Desai (WB) This paper benefited enormously from contributions by Miglena Abels, Aysenur Acar, Nazanin Akhgar, Haleem Hassan Kashkol Al-Kazali, Amel Allahoum, Elena Andreeva, Colin Andrews, Edward Archibald, Temilade Aromolaran, Jehan Arulpragasam, Angela Elzir Assy, Ashiq Aziz, Indra Baatarkhuu, Reena Badiani-Magnusson, Yusuf Bafozoda, Sarah Bailey, Paul Bance, Mehdi Barouni, Roland Berenger Berehoudougou, Martina Bergthaller, Anush Bezhanyan, Sharon Corinne Benzoni, Mira Bierbaum, Mark Blecher, Christian Bodewig, , Stefanie Brodmann, Hugo Brousset Chaman, Dimitriy Bychkov, Yoonyoung Cho, Tungalag Chuluun, Francesca Ciardi, Emmanuelle Collet, Facundo Cuevas, Matthew Cummins, Pamela Dale, Louise Moreira Daniel, Marie-Christina Dankmeyer, Benedicte Leroy De La Briere, Gustavo Demarco, Malin Linnea Sofia Ed, Randa El-Rashidi, Gerardo Escaroz, Fatou Fall, Maliha Fanning, Olesia Feoktistova, Katharina Maria Fietz, Gabrielle Fox, Nicholas Freeland, Luis Frota, Carlos Galian, Jordi Jose Gallego-Ayala, Maria Concepcion Steta Gandara, Elena Glinskaya, Elisaveta Gouretskaia, Rebekka Grun, Sabina Guliyeva, Sibusiso Gumbi, Melis Guven, Courtney Hallink, Mahdi Halmi, Siddharth Hari, Gonzalo Javier Reyes Hartley, Abu Yadetta Hateu, Alessandra Heinemann, Himanshi Jain, Johannes Hoenigl, Maddalena Honorati, Armenuhi Hovakimyan, Su Su Htay, Roberto Iacono, Adina-Maria Iorganda, Kumiko Imai, Adina-Maria Iorganda, Buthaina al-Iryani, Aylin Isik-Dikmelik, Marijana Jasarevic, Mustafa Kadhim Mohammed, Amjad Zafar Khan, Alex Kamurase, Sandor Karacsony, Dmitri Karasyov, Selma Kasic, Ayaba Gilberte Kedote, Qaiser Khan, Johannes Koettl, Julian Alexander Koschorke, Adea Kryeziu, Francesca Lamanna, Aleksandar Lazovski, Matthieu Lefebvre, Kook Hee Lee, Louisa Lippi, Christina Lowe, Mattias Lundberg, Mattia Makovic, Iftikhar Malik, Alicia C. Marguerie, Jonathan Marskell, Ana Georgina Marin Espinosa, Alessandra Marini, Erica Mattellone, Shea McClanahan, Karla McEvoy, Cem Mete, Andrei Mikhnev, Natalia Millan, Emma Mistiaen, Khalid Ahmed Ali Moheyddeen, Matteo Morgandi, Harry Edmund Moroz, Lindi Mzankomo, Martien Van Nieuwkoop, Desislava Enikova Nikolova, NIFI (Research Institute of Finance, Moscow), Nga Nguyet Nguyen, Noel Muller, Anthony Njage, Marina Novikova, Marija Novkovic, Foluke Adetola Ojelabi, Philip O’Keefe, Yulia Olenik, Vitorino Mello Oliveira, Ian Orton, Mirey Ovadiya, Efsan Nas Ozen, Truman Packard, Karuna Pal, Robert Palacios, Montserrat Pallares-Miralles, Ekaterina Pankratova, Ana Pantelic, Jasmina Papa, Clemente Avila Parra, Kenia Parsons, Nathalie Pazmino, Luca Pellerano, Remy Pigois, Ariel Pino, Juul Pinxten, Lucian Bucur Pop, Aleksandra Posarac, Nadine Poupart, Ana Prodanovic, Pamela Pozarny, Ma. Lourdes M. Rivera, Nina Rosas Raffo, Amanina Binti Abdur Rahman, Zandile Portia Ratshitanga, F. Zehra Rizvi, Claudia Rodriguez Alas, Mba Minko Djekombe Rony, Pedro Rosas, Friederike Uta Rother, Solene Rougeaux, Monica Rubio, Mira Saidi, Manuel Salazar, Marijana Šalinović, Glayson dos Santos, Indhira Santos, Karin Schelzig, Achim Schmillen, Anita Schwarz, Sirma Demir Seker, Karin Seyfert, Ivan Shulga, Nuno Cunha Meira Simoes, Karan Singhal, Charles Chilufya SJ, Andrius Skarnulis, Oleksiy A. Sluchynskyy, Rene Antonio Leon Solano, Tayana Charisse Oliveira de Souza, Tayllor Spadafora, Federico Spano, Maya Stern-Plaza, Victoria Strokova, Anna Sukhova, Changqing Sun, Kalilou Sylla, Claudia Zambra Taibo, Emil Tesliuc, Mauro Testaverde, Samman Thapa, Andrei Tretyak, Julieta M. Trias, Fiona Stewart, Gulsana Turusbekova, Emre Uckardesler, Silas Udahemuka, Uladzimir Valetka, Rashiel Velvarde, Fabio Veras, Andrea Vermehren, Dewen Wang, Asha M. Williams, Penny Williams, Briana Wilson, Natalia Winder-Rossi, Gelila Woodeneh, Yuliya Yafimenka, Ruslan G. Yemtsov, Soonhwa Yi, Alketa Zazo, Nahla Zeitoun, Lansong Zhang, Yukun Zhu, Roman Zhukovskyi, Mustapha Ziroili, Rocco Zizzamia, and Maria Zlatareva. The analysis and support of Saksham Khosla and Ana Veronica Lopez has been outstanding. This week’s special feature on cash transfer payments includes summaries from case studies by Guillermo Galicia, Nilima Ramteke, Dorothee Delort and Harish Natarajan. This complement last week’s discussion on eligibility and registries. Special thanks to Michal Rutkowski and David Stewart for their precious guidance and support. 1 As we reach the double-digit, 10th update of this weekly review, 190 countries and territories have planned, introduced or adapted social protection measures in response to COVID-19. New entries since last week include Cambodia, Cyprus, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Latvia, Lesotho, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Mozambique and Suriname. Social protection measures grew by 7%, or from 870 to 937 (figure 1). Figure 1. Trends in number of countries/territories and social protection measures 200 190 1000 181 937 180 171 900 870 159 160 151 803 800 752 140 133 700 126 685 120 600 106 564 100 505 500 84 80 418 400 60 283 300 Number of countries (bars) countries Number of 45 number number of SP measures (line) 40 200 20 103 100 0 0 20. Mar 27. Mar 3. April 10. April 17. April 24. April 1. May 8. May 15. May 22. May Social assistance transfers are the most widely used class of interventions. These non-contributory programs account for 59.6% of global responses, or 559 measures (table 1 and figure 2). Among safety nets, cash transfer programs account for half of intervention by governments (figure 3), with their 283 COVID-related measures representing one-third (30.2%) of total social protection programs. N. of N. of Table 1. Social assistance program type measures countries Cash transfers (conditional and unconditional) 246 124 Universal one-off cash 5 5 Childcare support 9 9 Social pensions 23 19 Sub-total (all cash-based measures) 283 124 in-kind food/voucher schemes 103 77 School feeding 27 22 Sub-total (all in-kind measures) 130 77 Utility and financial obligation support (waiver/postponement) 134 81 Cash for Work 12 9 Total SA measures 559 168 2 Figure 2. Composition of global social protection response (left), and cash transfers as % of social assistance (right) Social assistance Social Insurance Labor markets Other social assistance Cash 13% 27% 51% 49% 60% Both cash-based and in-kind transfers have been growing steadily, with cash accounting for a much larger number of measures. Cash-based measures are over twice those of in-kind programs (figure 3). About 57% of cash transfer measures (161 out of 283) are new programs in 104 countries, while one-fourth of measures (25.4%) are one-off payments. A significant number of new in-kind programs (91) has been also been introduced, accounting for 70% of total in-kind measures. Figure 3. Trends in cash-based and in-kind transfers measures 300 283 264 250 244 246 214 200 186 165 150 146 130 120 111 100 107 100 88 Number of measures measures Number of 73 62 50 43 22 0 27. Mar 3. April 10. April 17. April 24. April 1. May 8. May 15. May 22. May Cash-based measures In-kind support measures Cash transfers include programs of various duration. The duration of programs ranges from 1 to 6 months, for an average of 2.9 months (figure 4). In some cases, programs are tied to the duration of the crisis. This is the case, for example, in Morocco and Tuvalu. 3 Figure 4. Cash transfer duration 6 months 4 months 3-6 months 3 months Global average 2 months = 2.9 months 1.5 months 1 month 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 The size of cash transfers is relatively generous. Current transfers account for an average 25% of monthly GDP per capita in respective countries. The highest increase, or 47%, is registered in low income countries (among regions, ECA had the highest rate of 27%). On average, transfers have more than doubled (+139%) compared to average pre-COVID transfer levels (where data is available for a subset of 17 countries) (figure 5). Mongolia’s Child Money Program is increasing benefits from about MVT 10,000 in pre-Covid time to MNT 100,000. Figure 5. Cash transfers size as % of monthly GDP/capita (left) and as % increase relative to average pre-Covid level (right) 50% 47% Global average = 139% 45% Moldova 50% Russia 50% 40% Armenia 61% Cameron 67% 35% Angola 67% 30% Turkey 27% 27% Global average 100% = 25% Turks and Caicos islands 100% 25% 22% Dominican Republic 100% % of GDP 20% Albania 100% Brazil 140% 15% South Korea 150% 10% Egypt 157% Trinidad and Tobago 200% 5% Mongolia 900% 0% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% HIC LIC LMIC UMIC 4 Social assistance has been adapted to COVID-19 response in three ways. This includes expanding coverage, increasing benefits, and making administrative requirements simpler and more user-friendly. Specifically, administrative adaptations are occurring in 42 countries (figure 6). For example, anticipation of payments that due at later date (e.g., Malaysia); flexibility in the time of collection (e.g., Algeria); home delivery of cash for seniors (e.g., Armenia); postponement of recertification (e.g., Georgia); waiving of conditionalities (e.g., Philippines); and sharing of delivery systems across programs (e.g., Jordan). Increases in benefits among preexisting programs are implemented in 46 countries, including transfer value being increased (e.g., Egypt) and additional payment cycles (e.g., Chile). Coverage extension