MOUNTAIN ADAPTATION OUTLOOK SERIES Outlook on climate change adaptation in the South Caucasus mountains 1 DISCLAIMER The development of this publication has been supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in the context of its inter-regional project “Climate change action in developing countries with fragile mountainous ecosystems from a sub-regional perspective” that is financially co-supported A Centre Collaborating with UNEP by the Government of Austria (Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management). Editors Contributors Aliyev Mahir, UNEP Alfthan Bjorn, GRID-Arendal Artsivadze Kakha, Centre for Biodiversity Conservation and Aliyev Issa, Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Research NACRES Azerbaijan Dzneladze Malkhaz, independent expert Georgia Antadze Nino, Energy and Environment Portfolio, UNDP Egerer Harald, UNEP Georgia Fayvush George, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic Chkhobadze Nino, Greens Movement of Georgia/Friends of This synthesis publication builds on main findings and results of Armenia Earth of Georgia available through conducted projects, activities and based Jorstad Hanne, GRID-Arendal Gabrielyan Aram, UNFCCC focal point Armenia on information that is available such as respective national Jurek Matthias, GRID-Arendal Getiashvili Revaz, CENN communications by countries to the UNFCCC and peer Kirkfeldt Trine, GRID-Arendal Harutynyan Diana, UNDP Armenia reviewed literature. It is based on review of existing literature and Kurvits Tiina, GRID-Arendal Lazrievi Grigol, Ministry of Environment and Natural not based on new scientific results generated through the project. Mehdiyev Bariz, independent expert Azerbaijan Resources Protection of Georgia Rucevska Ieva, GRID-Arendal Machavariani Giorgi, Ministry of Environment and Natural The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the views or Semernya Larisa, UNEP Resources Protection of Georgia policies of UNEP, contributory organizations or any governmental Shatberashvili Nina, Caucasus Network for Sustainable Mafuta Clever, GRID-Arendal authority or institution with which authors or contributors are Development of Mountain Regions (Sustainable Caucasus) Osepashvili Ilia, WWF Caucasus affiliated and neither do they imply any endorsement. Wilson Mick, UNEP Schoolmeester Tina, GRID-Arendal Shvangiradze Marina, UNDP Georgia While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the Layout Tsereteli Kety, GEF/UNEP contents of this publication are factually correct and properly GRID-Arendal Tsiklauri Ivane, UNDP Georgia referenced, UNEP does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss Cartography or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through Manana Kurtubardze the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNEP concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the Front cover photo: Ushguli village with Shkhara mountain in the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. background, Georgia Back cover photo: Shahdag national park, Azerbaijan Mention of a commercial company or product in this publication does not imply endorsement by UNEP. ISBN: 978-82-7701-149-3 UNEP promotes This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in Recommended Citation environmentally sound practices any form for educational or non-profit services without special Shatberashvili, N.; Rucevska, I.; Jørstad, H.; Artsivadze, K.; permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement Mehdiyev, B.; Aliyev, M.; Fayvush, G.; Dzneladze, M.; Jurek, M.; globally and in its own activities. This of the source is made. UNEP would appreciate receiving a copy of Kirkfeldt, T. & Semernya, L. (2015). Outlook on climate change publication is printed on fully recycled paper, any publication that uses this publication as a source. adaptation in the South Caucasus mountains. United Nations FSC certified, post-consumer waste and chlorine- Environment Programme, GRID-Arendal and Sustainable We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have Caucasus. Nairobi, Arendal and Tbilisi. www.grida.no, www.unep. free. Inks are vegetable-based and coatings are water- been made. org, www.sd-caucasus.com based. UNEP’s distribution policy aims to reduce its 2 carbon footprint. MOUNTAIN ADAPTATION OUTLOOK SERIES Outlook on climate change adaptation in the South Caucasus mountains 5 Foreword 6 Executive summary 9 Recommendations 11 Introduction 13 Climate change in the region and key risks for vulnerable sectors 14 The latest climate change trends 17 Climate change scenarios 18 Natural hazards 22 Vulnerability and impact assessment 39 Key risks related to climate change 41 Analysis of adaptation policies for vulnerable sectors 42 Prominence of climate change adaptation in policy 50 Sectoral policy papers 62 Implementation of adaptation measures 64 Financial mechanisms 66 National coordination mechanisms on climate adaptation 67 Stakeholders’ consultation 68 Monitoring and evaluation 69 Conclusions on analysis of adaptation policies for vulnerable sectors 71 Gap analysis 72 Major barriers for planning and implementation of adaptation measures 73 Technology gap analysis 76 Policy gap analysis 79 Financial barriers 80 Coordination and monitoring of climate adaptation 82 Acronyms 83 Notes 84 References 3 Alpine meadows, Georgia 4 Foreword Mountain ecosystems enrich the lives of over half of The result of a broad assessment process involving to changes in climate with steadily increasing the world’s population as a source of water, energy, national governments and regional and international annual air temperature and declining annual agriculture and other essential goods and services. experts, the reports offer concrete recommendations precipitation; both of which are predicted to reach Unfortunately, while the impact of climate change is for adaptation. This includes sharing regional good unseen levels by the end of the century. Changes in accentuated at high altitude, such regions are often practices with the potential for wider replication to diverse ecosystems that include snow-capped peaks, on the edge of decision-making, partly due to their improve cost efficiency and adaptation capacity. forests and freshwater habitats, are inevitable due isolation, inaccessibility and relative poverty. to human activities and climate change. However, While each of the regions is covered in a dedicated this increases the vulnerability of mountain That is why the United Nations Environment report, they all face similar issues. On one hand, rising populations, particularly women. This makes it Programme and GRID-Arendal have partnered temperatures and changing precipitation patterns affect key to build reliance by safeguarding natural values on a series of outlook reports about the need for a range of mountain ecosystems, including forests, and diligent adaptation mechanisms. Increased urgent action to protect mountain ecosystems grasslands and lakes. On the other, drivers such as pollution regional dialogues on common ecosystems can only and to mitigate human risk from extreme events. from mining and unsustainable agriculture erode their serve to strengthen such resilience, so we thank Covering the Western Balkans, Southern Caucasus, ability to cope with these changes. The combined impact is the respective governments of the South Caucasus Central Asia, (tropical) Andes and Eastern Africa, increasing vulnerability among the local and downstream region for their support. the reports assess the effectiveness of existing populations who depend on mountain ecosystems – adaptation policy measures and the extent to which especially when they are isolated from markets, services. We hope that this report will serve as a practical they apply to mountain landscapes, going on to companion for local, regional and national policy identify critical gaps that must be addressed to meet Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, the three countries makers seeking to protect fragile mountain ecosystems current and future risks from climate change. of the South Caucasus sub-region, are already exposed and the people who depend on them. Achim Steiner H.E. Andrä Rupprechter UNEP Executive Director and Under-Secretary- Austrian Federal Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, General of the United Nations Environment and Water Management 5 Executive summary Changes in climate patterns are already evident in the necessity of prioritizing climate change adaptation. the South Caucasus countries – Azerbaijan, Armenia However, this outlook reveals that even though the and Georgia. Annual temperatures are increasing importance of climate change gains recognition accompanied by severe heat waves and droughts. among some decision-makers, adaptation activities, More extreme weather events, such as heavy rains particularly in the mountain regions, are still at an and unusual hail storms, and changes in precipitation early stage of development. For instance, specific patterns are also linked to climate change. Human climate change adaptation activities are few, and casualties, damage to infrastructure and economic consistent coordination and a long-term strategic losses are increasing due to intensifying natural approaches are missing. This report also highlights disasters such